Cash Game Poker Strategy: Should I Call This RIVER BET??

[@fundiver198]

The river card actually changed the texture, because it put a 6-high straight on the board. This means, that all hands without a 7 in them got counterfeited and are now playing the board. So if they call a river bet, they can only hope to chop the pot, when their opponent is bluffing trying to get them off the chop. Given that this is the case, I am not sure, it makes all that much sense to valuebet a 7 on the river. Because you still need to worry about 87, and what are you hoping to get called by? If Villain can think on this level, I think, we can maybe find a fold here. But in real time I would probably hate life and call it off as well.

[@tomohawk52]

How tight can this villain be if he's calling raises PF w/87o?

[@josephanthonyharrisiii6091]

tomohawk52 He's tight but not a nit

[@fundiver198]

Exactly. He is not tight but loose and passive. Call, call, call, call and then only ever bet or raise, when he have the nuts. If he was an online player his VPIP/FPR would be 52/4 or 43/3. The definition of a fish.

[@josephanthonyharrisiii6091]

fundiver198 Hey, I just started using a HUD and play 6 max. What kind of player am I considering my stats.... 32% vpip, 14% pfr, and 52% AFq

[@fundiver198]

+Warren Bluffit Even for 6-max your VPIP is a bit to high, and more importantly the gap between VPIP and PRF is to wide. If you do any kind of open limping, first of all stop doing that and either fold or open your marginal hands. This will then probably get your numbers inside the range of solid winning players. If you dont open limp, you should fold more, when the pot has been opened in front of you, and open more, when it fold around to you in late position. A common beginner mistake is to not be enough positionally aware. On the botton and in the SB you should open around 40% of the time, when it folds to you. But from UTG you should open a much tighter range than that. If you use PokerTracker4, run a leak analysis. This will give you exactly this sort of feedback on your overall game.

[@pixurguy4915]

I am an old tight nit. In this case I am on the button and it depends on the table and how well do I know the small blind and big blind. If they will come along with three callers ahead of them and flat call the raise I am getting 4-1 on my call and that is worth looking at the flop especially when I am on the button. If I am not sure about the blinds and there is a good chance that they three bet I might well fold. I said I was a nit.

[@Parliament1mg]

I am calling for sure. Never folding for less than half pot.

[@asherreich8299]

Parliament1mg because it's correct or because it hurts to fold for so small?

[@chriswilson1968]

asher reich Because it's mathematically correct.

[@Parliament1mg]

asher reich it is so likely that ur opponent has 7 in his hand and your chopping basically you are getting one to one on your call.

[@chriswilson1968]

Parliament1mg It's more than 1:1 because of all the dead money in there from all the callers. It's still a call either way...Maybe not if he shoved but I'm snap calling that river bet everytime without thinking. Most likely it's a chop, sometimes you beat a bluff and sometimes you lose to 87.

[@asherreich8299]

I don't know. I'm pretty sure I'd call too, and I didn't mean to say it's unreasonable, but I think the "snap" here stems more from unwillingness to fold the second nuts then from pure logic. My hesitation is, I'm not convinced a severe nit ever raises a seven there on the turn. Although with the flush draw is certainly way more likely. But anyways, I digress. I'd probably call too, mate.

[@SportsBoxBreakers]

I was actually the Hero in this hand of the day, really enjoyed hearing Alec's analysis of the hand through out the action. The preflop action was a little off, Basically I was the ROCK $10.00 free blind and knuckled the 97 diamonds 5 ways to the flop. The older guy on the button is a long time regular that could almost be classified as a super nit. I believe there was around $50.00 in the pot on the flop, hopefully that explains my flop bet. Typically I am auto calling most people in this spot and might even be raising the turn against some villains.

[@McGavel1]

Cool exploitative points - thanks! GL all - find those spots - never give up - have fun!

[@MrMjn5000]

thanks for all the video commentary.

[@micahlong8186]

Best video yet. Enjoy Hawaii. Make sure you get to the Big Island. Mahalo.

[@goonjanmall]

Two observations -- #Hero - Should we not over bet turn? We're freerolling flush, and will win a huge pot if we hit. Plus, more often than not villain calls and checks back river even with 78, so we're saving money. I've hardly seen anyone play tricky after someone overbets. #Villan - Clear overbet on river. Looks bluffy. We have nuts and will be called by a guy who has shown strength by betting twice into multiple people. We should do this with all hands to balance range, to put opponent in a tough spot. +AlecTorelli - what do you think? Am I going crazy with overbet and fancy play syndrome? Or this makes sense. #Over-analyze -- Say we are hero and hit a flush on the river. What's the best play - 2/3 pot bet, 2x pot overbet or check-raise?

[@Rafal1098]

In my opinion villain played it the worst way possible, maybe he was scared of two diamonds on the board? But it doesn't really make a ton of sense. If villain usually calls and not raises with 78 on the turn then what is his raising range? I don't see any hands at all. Nut flush draw maybe but he's in position and what really bets twice that isn't a straight? And besides you can always bluff the river being checked to after just calling the turn. Not even considering that villain can't really have that much Ax of diamond combinations. But I really like overbet on the river idea, especially that he wanted to go for full value or that what it seemed by raising the turn. His line was stupid because at the end he actually lost the value making this rather tinish bet. @overanalyze -> check/raise makes the most profit, doesn't it? :)

[@parlarry6290]

Only reason I'd say you could get away is because of his flop flat. If we're saying he's this tight, what sevens could he really flat the flop with? Probably not a7 with no flush draw on board. Only realistic possibilities are 97, 87, 76, 75, 74.... 74 and 76 probably raise flop so now we're looking at 97 87 and 75... Considering 57 and 97 are probably only being played suited (and you block a combo of both) by this Nit, it makes 87 SUPER likely. I'm not saying you HAVE to fold river, but I think us realistic to get away from.

[@phdtobe]

Larry Christinis Calling the turn raise depends upon whether the old nit tends to call when run down. Some old nits more likley fold when run down, while others get angry and often call out of frustration. So, will calling the turn raise to catch up get proper odds if the old tight nit isn't likely to call a rivered flush where his opponent bets into him???

[@parlarry6290]

phdtobe agreed, and this is a read only the guy involved can make. But as a generality, this band shows how important position is in fishy games when you're playing these not-nut making hands.

[@chriswilson1968]

It's possible he was just making a play on Hero's very weak turn bet. It's more likely that he called the flop with 87 tho. You still have to call this tho only losing to one hand.

[@russvaughn3364]

The story of the guy being a nit does not check out. The nits i know would never call preflop with 78o.

[@cyruslever586]

or its ace 2

[@alexanderramos9121]

Trivial call imo. I feel there are more than enough combos of random 7s (and you block one) and random stuff going on to justify the call vs the possible 78. I think I would have folded that pre flop considering how loose this table looks to me, but as played nice job losing the minimum to the old guy, although I feel you should have been betting half pot at least on the flop and the turn to build the pot with your hand. Speaking of him, he can't that nitty flatting 78o. I thought for sure I'd see 78s. Not that it's bad with how deep you are, but it discredits the nitty read.

[@johnstack5008]

A chop is possible but I think 87 is much more likely (no chance of a win). Even with the attractive pot odds this is a fold.

[@WebColorsGr]

Well hero could also raise in the turn, probably the v had just a 7, so he was freerolling.

[@josephanthonyharrisiii6091]

He could've easily had a baby ace with a pair. You gotta call that with the low bet. Good job not raising considering how tight the old man was. The old man isn't a nit considering he called a raise with in position with 78 off suit. I wouldn't have done that.

[@tiagomota4734]

oh man, but i dont agree with this hand for various reasons, first of all , when the villain raises to the turn , well the heroes raise its meaningless i have no idea hows hes a winner in these games because his size its not bad its horrible and you dont emphasize that at all....and the villains reraise its less than the pot size wich is meaningless as well....so it dosnt make alot of sense, considering the action and the bet sizing in this hand i dont even care how tight and old the guy is im NEVER FOLDING THE RVR bet!! please someone correct me if im wrong with my logic!!!

[@oyuyuy]

Consider folding river!?!? What? I don't see how villian could play 7x in any other way. Any villian raises turn with a seven vs a 1/4th pot bet 5way. How could he not? Ever considering folding river versus any kind of player is a massive mistake. I also think that we should never be betting neither flop or turn given our range, we have way too few strong hands

[@Storyvilleemcee]

Look at the math, 1.6:1 so we need... call it 36% equity. He's never bluffing. So those combos are out. So what hands does an old nitty dude get into this multiway pot with? 67, 78, and maybe some suited one gapers like 57, 97. There's two combos of 57s, three combos of 97s, and 8 combos of 67 - so 13 combos we chop. There's 12 combos of 78. We are chopping almost exactly half the time, and we don't need to be chopping that much to make the call. So it's a call.

[@fundiver198]

We are calling 400 for a chance to win 1400, so we need 22% equity. Since we have 50% equity against another 7 and 0% against 87, we need him to be betting with another 7 44% of the time. Or lets say 50% of the time, so we actually make money by calling. Its close for sure. Because while he can have more 7X than 87 on a pure combo basis, the question is, does he always play 7X this way? Maybe he does, but maybe not. However if you are unsure, you should call, because folding is somewhat exploitable from a game theory standpoint. Or maybe you can toss a coin and call half the time, so you become less predictable.

[@carlthomas7354]

I haven't even got past the turn yet but I dont get this at all. Two pair should never be on this board realistically. I don't think the other players range have been analysed here properly at all. Its much more likely they're raising with overpairs or a draw...why is the villain more likely to have 7/8 on that board?!

[@nycgags]

Ad 2d couldn't be a holding of villain?

[@dimitrakisladasi5496]

how is 45 2/3 of 150???someone???

[@markrobinson5654]

Alec, Do you really have to call old poker players " Old Nits "....It's very disrespectful. What makes a nit in your mind anyway!?.....I enjoy poker, have for many years but hate it when many "Respected" You tubers like yourself refer to the " Old Guy = Nits " in many of your and their videos. Those comments really need to end. You are a very respected poker player and as such, these comments just foster the younger players disrespect for older players......thanks and your videos are excellent by the way.

[@nathanieltrue9716]

Mark Robinson are you a nit? You dont need to be ashamed.

[@SportsBoxBreakers]

Stereotypes at the poker are very important and typically hold true in most cases...

[@reece74]

Does opening with this hand in early position balance your range? Is a limp call better?

[@fundiver198]

In a loose game like this folding and waiting for a better hand and/or better position is the best play. You beat loose games by playing tight and vice versa.

[@reece74]

fundiver198 so what do you do with KK or AK on a board like this with 4 callers?? If you're only opening with premium hands in this position it's easier to play against.

[@fundiver198]

You check-fold AK and valuebet KK. There are lots of hands, you cant have, when you open a pot from early position. Like 72 offsuit or J3 suited. So it change nothing, that you cant have 97 suited either. There are plenty of other hands, which are better than 97 suited, which you can still open from early position in a loose game.

[@reece74]

fundiver198 but you still haven't named any hands or answered my question. Doesn't opening with this hand keep you balanced? Should I only open with this hand in tight games? Is 97s not playable? I'm confused I should open with 72o or J3o? I like opening with this hands because it makes me unpredictable.

[@fundiver198]

The more hands, you open from early position, the more you allow players behind you to take position on you either by flatting or even worse by 3-betting you. And avoiding this disadvantage is way more important than being difficult to put on a hand. With 6 players act to left after you, and a loose game, you can open all pocket pairs, strong broadways and some strong suited connectors like QJ suited. But 97 suited is to loose. This is a hand, you want to only open with 4 or less players left to act behind you.

[@heyglasses]

at least he didnt reraise the turn because of the redraws. a lot of palyers would have. played it safe and lost less.

[@marcjtdc]

This guy is sooooooo into himself.

[@stevie2fu]

Moral of the Story... Don't open with 9 7 EP for 30$. If you find yourself opening this hand and the flop gives you equity, Resist the urge to bet 1/4 pot as it will give everyone equity to call and stack you. Betting 1/2 pot will likely have folded a tight player on a gut shot. If it doesn't maybe he's not so tight and your reads are based on you playing terribly

[@fundiver198]

87 flopped an open ended straightdraw. So no chance the old guy would ever fold on the flop, unless Hero open shoved or something silly like that. I think, there is some confusion here about the size of the pot. But in general if you are going to C-bet into 4 other players on a low connected board like this, you should bet pretty big. Even half pot is not enough, 2/3 pot is the minimum. Weather you have TT or a draw, you don’t want someone with AJ or KQ to even consider a call. You want to thin the field and define your opponents hand, when he continue.

[@TheQuocy04]

Cash Game Poker Strategy: how to Play Deep Stack 150 BB+

[@fearless4190]

even the nits bluffs sometimes, you can't just say that someone is never bluffig because you can't know that 100%.

[@chukienuno]

nits can bluff in certain spots but never ever in this spot, so i guess its pretty right to say 100% not a bluff

[@glgunblade]

Or if we wish to be pedantic a non 0% of the time he's bluffing by which it's probably a fraction of a percent if the read is accurate. It may as well be a true 100%.

[@fearless4190]

you can't know that

[@chukienuno]

rechach if you think there is any chance of a bluff in this spot you must be losing a lot paying with almost anything in the river..gl with that

[@fearless4190]

I'm a winning player actually but whatever

[@JiveDadson]

Love your commentary. Hate that intro.

[@dimitrakisladasi5496]

i completely dislike his river bet...if he had different image even an over bet makes sense i think......

[@tiagomota4734]

and i have to say it again, i see in almost all the videous just horrible bet sizing from everyone you kinda have to pin point that and make a big deal about it!!!

[@ruxtonatheist1527]

The nit is never raising river with worse, so isn't bet-folding better than check-calling? We get to set the price, and when he comes over the top we can snap fold, say nice hand and move on.

[@SportsBoxBreakers]

What is he calling me with that makes a bet good? A chop?

[@ruxtonatheist1527]

Does betting the river yield a greater expectation than checking? If there is a small non-zero chance that he calls with worse or folds to a river bet, I think it does. When we check, 1 of 3 things happen: he checks behind (we scoop a small non-zero percentage, and chop a majority of the time), he bets and we call (we chop a small non-zero percentage, and we lose a majority of the time), or he bets and we fold (he scoops). When we bet, the results are: he folds (we scoop), he calls (we scoop a small non-zero percentage, and chop a majority of the time), or he raises (we fold and he scoops). Betting gives us two chances to scoop and one to chop, and allows us to set the price knowing our exact pot odds. For checking to be correct, the nit must have zero combos that he folds to a bet (we have zero fold equity), and we are chopping with 100% of his calling range. He is a nit, not a bot.

[@fundiver198]

In general you dont want to bet the river with medium strength hands. And since only 3 hands are possible here, the 7-high straight is definitely a medium strength hand. If he even have hands, which are playing the board, he is probably more likely to bet them as a bluff, than he is to call with them. Although to be honest both seem really unlikely in this particular spot. And turning a 7 into a bluff trying to get him to fold another 7 is also not particularly great. He is probably going to call with a 7, unless you overbet really large. And if you overbet really large, he might still call anyway, and you valuetown yourself against 87. If you really want to have bluffs here, it should be hands like busted flushdraws, that play the board. And it has to be balanced out with 87. So if you want to bluff the river, you can not 3-bet 87 on the turn. Finally its not unproblematic to bet-fold the second best hand, you can have. It create a great bluffing opportunity against you, and that’s not something, you want to do. You say, that he would only raise 87, but there is no way, we can know that for sure. And therefore it has value in itself to get to showdown with a 7 in this situation. Which is also why, if you want to play in a way, he can not exploit, you need to check-call with a 7 here and pay him off, particularly when he bet so relatively small. If you feel, you have a really solid read on him and can play in an exploitable way, check-folding the river is the alternative option. But you will never go that wrong by sticking to game theory optimal lines in general. And that mean check-calling this river.

[@MugenTJ]

This guy winning player!? Okay.

[@garygwinn4256]

I would have lost more $ with this hand.

[@JiveDadson]

I wouldn't have lost a penny.

[@heyglasses]

if u dont lose a penny in this hand your palying too tight, missing value cause ur putting ur opponents on the nuts every time. not profitable.

[@JiveDadson]

I just throw it in the muck pre-flop.

[@fundiver198]

+JiveDadson Good point. The way to beat a loose game is to play tight and vice versa.

[@tylerjoyner9865]

old tight nit