Change Your Future by Learning History's Patterns (Same as Ever by Morgan Housel)

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Same as Ever: geni.us/same-ever-nat
Psychology of Money: geni.us/psych-money-nat
Laws of Human Nature: geni.us/laws-nature-nat
Lessons of History: geni.us/lessons-history-nat
Sapiens: geni.us/sapiens-nat
Antifragile: geni.us/antifragile-nat
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🙋‍♂️ ABOUT ME
I’m a writer and entrepreneur living in Austin Texas with my wife and two daughters. My first book is publishing with Penguin Random House in 2024 about the wild cryptocurrency mania from 2020 to 2022. Follow along for more book recommendations and lessons from my favorite books.
🎥 TIMESTAMPS:
[00:00] How to Predict the Future
[01:57] Risk is What You Don’t See
[03:53] People Want Certainty, not Accuracy
[07:31] Storytelling is a Superpower
[11:06] Calm Times Create Crazy Times
[13:19] Don’t Go Too Fast
[16:27] More Stress Is Good
[17:56] Good News Happens Slowly
[19:48] How to Be a Rational Optimist
[21:16] Perfection Makes You Fragile
[23:10] It’s Supposed to Be Hard
[25:04] Don’t Quit When You’re Ahead
[26:05] Questions to Ask Yourself
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[@ch-fk2gi]

This channel is really like a hidden jem. Thanks for the book summary was very concise and easy to understand !

[@mitchelcline9759]

Our human based past was predictable, our A.I. based future is not. Our future has never been less certain.

[@Josephoco]

People during ww2 thought the same thing with the development of radar , then the Cold War we thought the same with satellites, now your worried about ai? Only thing that’s ever been certain is that are future never will be .

[@BennettYancey]

Definitely will be purchasing this book soon maybe as a Christmas gift to myself.

[@RameshBaburbabu]

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:00 📚 *Overview of "Same as Ever" by Morgan Housel* - Morgan Housel introduces his new book, "Same as Ever," which explores timeless themes in a format reminiscent of books like "Laws of Human Nature" and "The Lessons of History." 01:27 🔄 *Things That Never Change: The Basis for Predicting the Future* - Morgan discusses the importance of understanding things that never change as a basis for predicting the future. - Jeff Bezos' perspective on customer desires as an example of a constant. - The value of focusing on aspects that remain consistent for long-term success. 02:24 ⚠️ *Managing Risk: What You Don't See Can Hurt You* - Risk is what you don't see coming, illustrated by examples from The Economist's forecast. - The concept of investing in preparedness, not prediction. - The idea that risk worsens when one believes they can predict unforeseeable events. 04:24 📊 *Nuanced Understanding of Probability and the Pitfalls* - The challenge of handling probability and the human preference for black-and-white outcomes. - The importance of thinking in percentages and embracing uncertainty. - Acknowledging that unlikely events happen frequently due to the sheer volume of possibilities. 07:47 📖 *The Power of Storytelling: The Best Story Wins* - The influence of storytelling over statistics, exemplified by the success of books like "Sapiens" and Bill Bryson's works. - How the ability to tell a compelling story often outweighs the need for the most accurate information. - The impact of a well-told narrative on capturing people's attention and resonating with them. 11:11 🔄 *Calm Plants Seeds of Crazy: Stability Can Be Destabilizing* - Exploring the cyclical nature of societal and historical patterns. - How excessive stability can lead to complacency and, eventually, crisis. - The analogy of preventing forest fires and the necessity of allowing controlled disruptions for long-term system strength. 13:39 🚦 *Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast: The Pitfalls of Rapid Progress* - The danger of attempting to accelerate processes beyond their natural pace. - The negative consequences of pursuing rapid growth, as seen in examples from the business world. - The analogy of Warren Buffett's quip emphasizing the importance of patience in achieving meaningful results. 16:35 ⚙️ *When the Magic Happens: Stress and Innovation* - Discussing how periods of stress and challenges often lead to significant technological advancements. - The idea that being too comfortable can stifle creativity and innovation. - Exploring the notion that adversity and pressure can bring out the best in individuals and drive progress. 18:04 🔄 *Good News vs. Bad News: Compounding Slowly vs. Catastrophes Quickly* - The contrast between good news, which results from compounding over time, and bad news, often stemming from sudden catastrophic events. - The realization that bad news tends to capture more attention due to its abrupt nature. - The importance of understanding the temporal dynamics of positive and negative developments. 18:34 📈 *Understanding the Bias in News Reporting* - News often focuses on bad events, overshadowing slow and steady progress. - Progress is frequently about things that didn't happen, leading to less coverage. - Balancing pessimism and optimism is crucial for a healthy perspective on life. 19:31 🔄 *Balancing Pessimism and Optimism* - The importance of balancing pessimism and optimism in financial planning. - Saving like a pessimist and investing like an optimist for long-term success. - Acknowledging setbacks and shocks as part of the continuous path to improvement. 21:27 🏞️ *Casualties of Perfection* - Creating space and slack in routine for strategic thinking and reflection. - The danger of being too perfect and over-optimized in your work routine. - Drawing parallels with evolution to highlight the value of adaptability. 22:55 💪 *Embracing Challenges and Hard Work* - Resisting the temptation of shortcuts and embracing the value of hard work. - Seinfeld's perspective on efficiency and the danger of shortcuts. - Jeff Bezos's insight on finding success by enjoying at least half of your work. 25:26 🏃‍♂️ *Keep Running: Avoiding Complacency* - The importance of continuous effort and not becoming complacent after success. - How relaxation and complacency can lead to losing a hard-earned advantage. - Staying vigilant and persistent in the face of achievements. 26:24 ❓ *Reflecting on Personal Beliefs and Future Challenges* - Thought-provoking questions to ponder about personal beliefs and biases. - Considering the sustainability of trends and preparing for unforeseen risks. - Encouraging self-reflection on one's views and readiness for changing circumstances.

[@Alexmar345]

Very nice Summary of the Book

[@RajSingh-hv2ij]

Very nice summary I have read the book…..you have nailed it.

[@nateliason]

Thank you so much!

[@user-dv5qd9mw2q]

Great

[@KINGTANISH07]

Gem ❤

[@krizaey8782]

Wait… this book wasn’t in your last book haul video. 😅

[@nateliason]

Hahaha good catch, it snuck in after!

[@jamesstramer5186]

Just bought this today! Was putting off reading it but just read one chapter and am already hooked! Please keep making these reviews! End up buying most of the books showcased on the channel.