Charlie’s London property market predictions for the next few years.

[@K_Art4845]

Yes, in London it is a real mix re the working at home, hybrid working and full working from home. I know people who are now full time back at work, full time at home and working 2, 3 or 4 days a week at home. For those working at home full time or part time it does open up the possibility of living out of London.🙂

[@InnuendoXP]

We currently rent in Zone 4, happily near a Crossrail station. What we've worked it is on commutable distance in terms of time & cost of housing Vs transport, once you're Zone 4 plus a bus ride, you might as well be living in one of the commuter belt market towns, with much more pleasant surroundings and houses that are typically owner-occupied rather than the long-neglected rentals from landlords looking to get out. This is true for the South-East & probably much more true for the other quadrants of Greater London.

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

Which area in SE London? Abbeywood, Bromley , Chistlehurst Elmstead Woods, New Eltham, Eltham, Petts Woods further ? any better area outside London ? Sevenoaks, Dartford,.Hays... ? Property values looks to be priced to location and commute.

[@InnuendoXP]

@@Rahul-oy4bp I was being intentionally vague because I'm speaking in quite general terms. But yes location and commute, that's what I said, location is a value-add in the west and a value-sink in the east for many factors. West: -historical prestige -many more convenient (& cheap/free) river crossings due to narrower end of the river -easier access to the country -historically disproportionately middle & upper class reflected in the stratification of available housing stock East: -historically industrial, heavy commercial & docklands with the historical & current excesses of pollution & environmental degradation -wider river, few & expensive crossings -prevailing westerly winds ensuring the east endures more than it's fair share of air pollution -more heavily targeted during the blitz, disproportionately less fashionable mid 20th century new builds -older builds disproportionately housing for lower income workers, smaller, less ornamentation & lower build quality on original structures & fittings. But commute time to central London is superior to these factors. Proven if nothing else by the fact that the money you need to buy a decent flat or maisonette in Greenwich or Lewisham could buy you an immaculate spacious Georgian semi-detached 4-bed house in a posh neighborhood in eg. Birmingham.

[@VinceSamios]

"wages are increasing faster than house prices...." Whey!!! "In London ...." Oh

[@Caerdan]

I find it crazy that the Prime Minister's salary (£172,153) couldn't get a mortgage to buy the average price terrace house in London (£795,090)

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

PM has enough connections to live rent free in million £ house.

[@TasmanianDevil22]

Hi Charlie. The flat I sold in March 24 is just about to get a 33% increase to the service charge according to the local group forum. If that is true, then I think I have dodged a bullet. I sold for 171k and now the agent I sold with said he just can't shift them for 160k. The property I am buying was sold in 2017 for £232,500 as a new build Jones Homes. After inflation, it should be 302k using the BOE inflation calculator. They have had an extension done since buying at a cost of 30k (based on what the agent said it cost the seller, I take that with a pinch of salt) So the house owes them 332k at least (based on what the agent said). I offered to 290k and came up to and agreed on 292,500 because I think it worth that. That is a 39,500 loss. I'm happy to talk to you, and you use this as an example if you want to. But I think I have got a decent deal, all things considered. If you would like more info reply and I can message you on X. Thanks for the videos, it's been very useful. Thanks

[@naeedaafzal3055]

Congratulations that's great 👍 wish prices come down in berkshire abit more

[@charlesturner6747]

If you are looking to buy a house to start a family, school location also becomes important, especially as private schools have become more expensive. I'm at the other end of the scale here. I have a property abroad and am looking to buy a 'cheaper property over here and being based near and underperforming school, could knock the prices down by 10%,

[@shazoids]

I don't agree wages are rising, this largely down to public sectors pay rises. Every where else it feels like they are falling. I'm in IT and it is utterly desperate right now. Let's see, i get the feeling we will follow the trajectory of other countries like Canada, America, France and Germany..

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

I fear you are right

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

There is stagnation in wages, job losses at the mid level in finance, IT sector ( not C level)..

[@Michelle-72]

It is starting to feel almost impossible to *not* over pay in this current market.

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Whereabouts is that?

[@Michelle-72]

@@MovingHomewithCharlie Beautiful Bradford 😄😖 There are a lot of horrible areas here, so the remaining nice parts are very popular (less choice).

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

Agree as 7 out of 10 properties in the market are ones bought in 2019-2021 and ask price is above their peak purchase price. They cannot hold their mortgage payments and want another guy to pick the box.

[@VinceSamios]

"the outlook isn't bad" - you feeling ok dude? 😅😂

[@flyinghedgehog3833]

Good luck finding a family house in greater London EPC C...under 1 mio.

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

There are houses in South East London Zone 3,4 that one can get under £700k in good condition but nothing North or West London in a good area.

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

Out of 10 new properties in the market in London 7 were bought in 2019-2021 and they expect 10 to 20% above their ask price and not getting sold. Even buying at +5% the price is a loss when calculating amortization total amount paid. If salaries in London dont double in next 10 years then very few are seen able to buy a million pound house. Getting it at 35 year loan is investing entire money in a -1 to 4% appreciating illiquid asset class.

[@adamkershski]

Great, they can enjoy a big fat zero. Some BTLer wants 475 for a flat Z2 bought in 2020 for 360.

[@op1ekun81]

I'm really disheartened by the London property market. I've figured out my DiP already, and I set aside a solid chunk of money every month for the deposit. Yet still, I can't find anything suitable in my budget :/ I'm looking for a 2bed freehold for myself. I'm a first time buyer. So called "second hand" homes have been average at best, and I wouldn't pay around half a million to live there even if I had cash. The new builds, albeit slightly cheaper, are usually built in-between exsiting developments or at the back of them (?!) where you usually see car parking spaces (you would literally live in someone else's backyard...). Sadly I think freehold seems out of reach at the moment unless I decide to put "ALL the eggs in the same basket. Thank property market gods for my acute ;) risk aversion. As for leaseholds, the new builds seem more and more atractive. As you can usually get 1bed, wit no ground rent, and smallish service charge for around 350-380k - all that in a nice, and quiet area with good transport links.

[@florinserbabh4560]

For those of you who think prices aree going down let me tell you this. Even kebab shops have increased prices by 50% over the past 5 years. And what Charlie is saying now is what i heard in 2012 when i started building my town House in east London and prices have doubled since then. I also got my money back and more just from rent. Cheers lads

[@delgriffithification]

Thanks for the good news Charlie. I own a three bed end terrace in SW zone 4. 😂

[@johndinsdale1707]

I thought the plan was always, write-to-buy / sell / move to the countryside?

[@HoxtonHotspur]

It still surprises me that a journalist is so clueless (or maybe it shouldn’t 😂?)

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

UK Swap rates moved from sept 2024 at 3.6 to Oct 2024 at 4.1. It's now the same as it was in Jan 2024 when interest rates were 5%. The banks are making no money giving mortgages at 4%. They will be earning the returns in future on the client.

[@oanalesnic79]

How would you describe middle class people who can afford properties up to 1 milion in London? What types of jobs or professions do they typically have?

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

£250k deposit saved, joint income £150k giving 5 x mortgage of £750k, total £1m budget.

[@Rahul-oy4bp]

@oanalesnic79 I know some guys in IT , Finance who are working in support , developer, project manager 1. Got £1 million house paying 10% deposit, mortgage term 35 years, both earning £110k to £130k , no plans to have kids and would be in mid 70s for 35 year mortgage. 2. £850k house with 15% deposit, 1 kid, mortgage term 30 years, wife will stop working in few years. Will be in late 60s for their 30 year mortgage. 3. £750k house , 10% deposit, both earning joint income £150k in early 30s, have a dog, no kids, no plan for kids, they spend a lot in travel. 4. £1.5m , I don't know how much he paid, but the guy is head of a team and has paid off a house in his late 40s and took a mortgage for the £1.5 mil house. Most of the guys have bought high priced houses so their wife's don't stop working and and some don't want kids. It's hard to buy a £1 mil house with fewer years on mortgage, and it's even harder with 1 income having a family with kids.

[@stephengreen8986]

Anybody booking 30 minutes with Charlie on this form, will get tremendous value for money.

[@ProfoundFamiliarity]

Dulwich is great, I'd strongly recommend it

[@craptacular8282]

The village is nice, I'm not a huge fan of the rest of it. (I'm in East Dulwich BTW).

[@DCFilmsLTD]

Dulwich is incredibly expensive to buy

[@craptacular8282]

@DCFilmsLTD I'm renting and I'm finding it reasonable. The cost to buy the place we are renting is way too high compared with the cost to rent. I think most of London is out of whack like that though.

[@ProfoundFamiliarity]

@@DCFilmsLTD that's true

[@ProfoundFamiliarity]

@craptacular8282 I also rent there. Have been there a while. I could never afford to buy there though

[@BigHAL9001]

What was the AI software?

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Opus Clips

[@florinserbabh4560]

Trust me guys. Houses are undervalued in London due to bad politicians and their agenda. Compare them to other european capitals and you ll see that.

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Undervalued?! Haha! "trust me!" you need to do better than that ;-)

[@florinserbabh4560]

​@@MovingHomewithCharliein Bucharest where im leaving now. The minimum wage is 600€ and the average house is 300k+ same Berlin and Amsterdam. So i do expect house prices in London to pick up

[@smrriles5668]

​@@MovingHomewithCharlieYou can"trust me" they will fall 35 percent 😂😂 you'll have to do better than that

[@florinserbabh4560]

​@@smrriles5668 even kebab shops have increased prices by more than 50% over the past 5 years and you think property is going down. Ok