China charts a new economic future | Hinrich Foundation

The global challenges posed by China’s economic expansion and strategies aren't often well understood, especially as a "China Shock 2.0" takes hold, driven by a surge in the country’s exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries. Chen Gang from the East Asian Institute and Yuan Mei from Singapore Management University delve into China's economic growth and its future prospects.
Since joining the WTO, China's export growth has been phenomenal, driven by demand from the US, which consequently contributed to a decline in America’s manufacturing sector. This trend has significantly shaped recent US trade policy. In an effort to reverse the slump in manufacturing jobs, Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. But there is no evidence that these measures have been effective. In fact, many Chinese companies have moved production to other countries to circumvent these tariffs, highlighted Yuan Mei. As China relocates some of the supply chains, it is doubling down on other parts of the value chain, such as high-end manufacturing and research and development. This strategic shift is exemplified in the country’s focus on electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries, which are poised to drive its next phase of export-led growth, said Chen Gang.
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[@olderchin1558]

This is weird for a couple of "Economist". They are describing free market economics as if it is a bad thing. When there is a demand, people start businesses to supply it. Many will try and many will fail, there will come a point when supply exceeds demand. Until that happens many companies will want to produce the stuff. The US went through this phase as did Japan, Europe and South Korea. And in a smaller way, as did my company and yours.

[@existentialbaby]

it's a bad thing, that's why US is putting protectionist sanctions on china 😂😂

[@biggpicture2930]

It depends, it is fantastic when USD can remain the world currency... why manufacture, when all you needs is to print money... You can do it if china can be contained or small.... As the way it is going, USD will lose its dominant. Now that is bad, soon people will prefer to hold yuan instead of USD... So it is back to protectionism, it will at least slow china's growth...

[@biggpicture2930]

for normal countries, free trade is good... both will gain in immediate term

[@biggpicture2930]

With china a major trading partner of all countries pose a risk to usd, so naturally usa wants that curtailed

[@olderchin1558]

Tariffs and others forms of protectionism is not necessarily bad. Sovereign countries have a right and duty to protect their industries and workers. The US just needs to be less hypocritical about it and less use of tariffs like a weapon instead of a shield. China has a form of free market so it is not immune from oversupply and fluctuating demand. They do and have suffered from downturns as well. The real estate is a prime example, the EV industry is going through some blood letting as well. The solar panel industry also went through some weeding in the past. And the semi-con industry is going through a second surge because of the sanctions. And the US will survive and adjust its economy as the rest of the world do their own thing. As countries evolve, devolve or develop, the global economy will find a new equilibrium.

[@frankh.5378]

Fabricated graphs. We know for sure export decreased dramatically in 2021 and on especially in 2024.

[@existentialbaby]

yes India is suppapowaa, gdp growth rate 10%

[@biggpicture2930]

India gdp complete fabrication.... High Income but no money in the bank? Same as high GDP but no earned foreign reserve. Show your money... Where is it?

[@biggpicture2930]

​ @raoplns who is going to lend you money to build huge mansion in China? All land are leased in China. They all go back to China. At end of lease , it is ZERO value...China banks are government banks mainly... They lend you to buy lease from china government, only if you work for them,. Otherwise it is your own money.. No private bank will lend you any money to buy lease on land in China. Land cannot be transfer like free market, subject to government approval. So you cannot easily mortgage you landed property in China... It is your own money basically. @raoplns 28 minutes ago @biggpicture2930 I can borrow 100 crores and develop a huge mansion, if banks can give me loan and no cost. That is how china grew.

[@raoplns]

China has huge wastage in bicycles due to many failed ventures that offered bicycle rides using app. Similar wastage is observed in many industries, including real estate, ev manufacturing, semiconductor etc. while some leaders will emerge from such policies, overall industry may not be profitable for a long time or forever. This is the loss to chinese people who are bearing this burden from the businesses without realizing

[@orixdel7362]

Well, that is how free market works right? However I would say that the over excessive competition sometimes lead to price war and bad quality control, where it ends up with companies surviving the competition by providing minimum quality good or services at lowest costs, and I think that harms the economy and industries in the long run.

[@raoplns]

@@orixdel7362 you are right, provided government doesn't distort the market forces, which is not the case in China

[@orixdel7362]

@@raoplns yes definately, hence why China was the fastest-growing country for the past two decades🤣

[@raoplns]

@@orixdel7362 and now the fastest falling economy 😅

[@raoplns]

@@orixdel7362 ha..ha...and now the fastest declining at a record pace...😄....declining on economy, population, real-estate prices, share market value, birth rate, marriages etc etc...but increasing in debt, data falsification, bankruptcies, migration, sending money abroad etc etc...you got the pix? Borrowing money and investing can show growth, but how long?