China's Real Estate Collapse Has Only Just Begun, Argues Brian McCarthy

[@BlockworksHQ]

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[@mikemactavish1665]

China assembles the smart phones, they don't design them

[@voxpopuli1280]

Seeing the Bitcoin ETF Ad... Hey, china is running a huge ponzi but what about this one? 200 years ago VanEck would have sold snake oil ETF.

[@bayern1806]

@@FalconXE302 You prefer shitcoins like USD? 🤣

[@johnharris1360]

Are less new bitcoin produced now that the biggest Chinese dam is not producing electricity at the moment?

[@bayern1806]

@@johnharris1360 No, not the price, the demand or the electricity usage can affect the amount of Bitcoin being produced. That's the beauty of Bitcoin.

[@Riggsnic_co]

Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.

[@Jamessmith-12]

Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.

[@kevinmarten]

We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@kevinmarten]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@johnnyguitar2929]

I’m an equity manager based in Hong Kong. I’ve invested in China for 20 years but not interested in allocating capital to China markets anymore. HK/China markets will most likely be a value trap for years to come.

[@donaldkasper8346]

It looks like you would make a lot of money helping companies move out and relocate.

[@donaldkasper8346]

The Chinese and Russian and EU markets peaked in 2008 and with US banking help, EU has hobbled along slightly improving. But China and Russia never recovered. The past 16 years of your investment has been a loss. All the Chinese GDP numbers since that event are just made up as China has declined. Now the end of the bell curve and huge drop off you just noticed? You didn't notice when China installed Dollar export capital controls in 2015?

[@donaldkasper8346]

I am stunned you remain in HK instead of moving to Singapore. You need to see the Chinese factories close in person?

[@michaelfritzell9352]

Johnny Guitar with the amazing collection of Tudor and Rolex watches? Big fan

[@davidwestwater2219]

Sir for your own good, you should get yourself a british passport and get out of Hong kong the future is going to be ugly

[@WayneLyons]

"They could build nothing for ten years and still have enough houses." Unless you factor in that millions of those empty appartments are not actually complete to a habitable level, and those that are ready for habitation are such poor quality that many of them may be condemned if they don't collapse first. Add in the fact that many of them are built in ghost cities where nobody wants to live because there are no jobs in those locations and no community / family support network.

[@ManwithNoName-t1o]

yeah they didn't complete them. Now the rain and weather and vegetation is tearing them down

[@alandoak5146]

​@@ManwithNoName-t1o it's worse than that, corruption is rampant, to save money the concrete has more sand than cement and the rebar is made of pot metal.

[@selocan469]

My thoughts exactly. Besides, no further penny will spend to make them habitable even if they are not a death trap as you already suggested. I did rarely witness an abandoned project to be continued later, especially in housing and construction business..., even if the conditions are most favorable.

[@SimonCU]

Americans should also built more homes.. this will lower inflation without increasing rates. Making living expenses cheaper is a better tactics than increasing rates. This will reduce homeless issues in America too. We can learn a lot from the Chinese.

[@janicewolk6492]

Ah, the truth hurts. Big time.

[@bangmo7]

As a South Korean, I know how hard it is to shift from a government-driven investment-led model to a market-driven one. South Korea (the model of Deung's Open Policy) used to a typical investment-led model. The model the late President Park designed is a mixture of Lenin's 'unequal' development and Imperial Japan's Manchuria development, appied to a totally new context, the GATT regime coupled with a set of generous US policies toward South Korea. Of course, entrepreneurship has been amazing as Peter Drucker said. This model got into a deep crisis in the 1970s. The Yom Kippur War and the first Oil Shock almost killed the economy. The Second Oil Shock following the Iranian Revolution was even worse. But the Value Added Tax system began to work in 1978, which gave transparency and checked moral hazard. (South Korea is one of the earliest adopters). And finally, the late President Park, in Jan. 1979, nine months before being assassinated, decided to shift to the market-driven model. They called it ‘the stabilization model’. (They called the investment-led ‘the growth-centered model’)... From Oct. 1979 to May 1980, a political turmoil. Then a military ‘junta’ came in. The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrat elites, who had a firm belief in the market-driven model. By 1988, South Korea had got into a track toward a developed economy. An authoritarian ruler (the late President Park) chose the VAT system for transparency and gave up the government initiative (for the shift to a market-driven economy). The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrats. This type of reform is not at all a common phenomena. The per capita GDP of South Korea in 1979 was just above that of China in 1990. China had done the opposite for the last 33 years. … Too strong ‘connections’ have developed between political power(the CCP), business men and the military(the PLA). No way back… This worries me since we South Koreans live next to China and are facing its puppet(North Korea).

[@imtryinghere1]

Thank you for your response

[@mostlyguesses8385]

Thank you for info on S Korea..... Half of the lesson is have market, and have stability, and let modern technology and methods work to boost output. It's hard to mess up the boost from cell phones, they save 1 hour a day by letting people connect faster and move data easier.. it's hard to mess up boost from stable electricity unlike old eratic power. Hard to mess up boost of reliable transport...... Hard to mess up boost of modern medicine but must drop all the stupidly of "Traditional Asian Medicine" and prayers....... Hard to mess up mega boost of letting female half of population work in all jobs..... Modern and safe banking .... modern water and sewer, , , , . We in West are impressed by S Korea, for using these modern tools so well....

[@DW-op7ly]

South Korea use to have trade surpluses year over year with China Now? 👇 South Korea, caught between the two superpowers, reported a trade deficit of US$18 billion with China in 2023 - its first such deficit since they established diplomatic relations in 1992, according to data from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE).Jan 16, 2024 Analysts suggest South Korea’s trade deficit with China will persist as Beijing reduces dependence on foreign chips SCMP

[@Eric-is1jt]

There was only2 dollars in the begining,now there are trillions,it's a much dreaded syndrome of over population of dollars.who is going to stop it before they take over and polute the whole earth,I think we are doomed.😅😊😮

[@schopen-hauer]

you understand your economics, for china to become consumer driven they would need to use the yuan as reserve currency and open their markets do you think they will try that, or try same model they have now?

[@georgelewis8831]

It’s ironic how you don’t realize we’re doing the same thing by overspending us into unsustainable debt!

[@JesseLockeHere2Do]

Amazing analysis. Unlike anything I've found elsewhere, and I've found a lot. Thank you gentlemen. Keep up the good work.

[@bellakrinkle9381]

I think China will survive somehow. I don't want to be negative. Yet, I've lost money from investing in China 25 years ago. Corporations are too corrupt for me to reconsider. Until China can clean up their businesses and industries, I'm out.

[@bestfriendhank1424]

So, the subject material talks about how the China economy is a huge Ponzi scheme, yet there are ads for crypto durning the interview. 🙄

[@bestfriendhank1424]

And how China needs to more loans to keep the Ponzi scheme alive. Sure sounds like the same basic workings of the Ponzi scheme that were being advertised.

[@ConstructionHoney]

Gotta pay the piper

[@lorenrb80]

oh the ironing

[@lexnite22]

@@lorenrb80 😆

[@NiceTriGuy]

Crypto isn’t a Ponzi scheme, it is a bunch of people having fun playing a video game. More like gambling than investing.

[@JJJ-mh4ee]

Thanks

[@jbrown6367]

The Nut: 1:17:36 "Wealth destruction on a scale never seen before." This conversation is great. Thank you.

[@christopherelliot4964]

There absolutely NO WAY that this huge fire IS NOT going to BURN US!!!!!

[@barryraymond9004]

@@christopherelliot4964China never let US investors own anything but chinese equities which have ALREADY crashed. The pain is transitioning supply chains out of China which is why Mexico and Vietnam are booming.

[@darnellcapriccioso]

I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire liquidity value to my stock portfolio?

[@ericmccormick82]

"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task

[@ChadRoberts-x6i]

Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.

[@richardhudson1243]

this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@ChadRoberts-x6i]

Annette Marie Holt is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@morgansofia]

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

[@erahstenirev8141]

I have noticed a very common pattern. If you talk or write in English about bad things happening in China, then there will be many comments saying that the same, if not worse, things happen in the US too. If you do it in Mandarin, then the comments are they happen in Taiwan too.🤣

[@popghana]

China hires Chinese students to defend the country. Those English writers studied outside so give example of us and those local students know only taiwan. They are hired and paid by government. 😂😂

[@junksails814]

​@@popghana USA hires Chinese students to demo like thay did in HKG and failed. They are hired and paid by US government. more specifically NED

[@chongyayayayayayayayaya]

​@@popghanain your wet dream

[@Kevin19700]

This vid is so interesting and so packed with information that I have had to rewind numerous sections and listen again. Excellent information!

[@DanSme1]

As a retired CPA/bank examiner/auditor (25 years with the FED), I fully agree with the Ponzi scheme analogy. Brian McCarthy has more clarity on China's "scheme" than I've heard from anyone else. However, the Chinese cultural scheme (with aid from CCP/PBOC) has a different huge wrinkle. The Western analysts' failure to understand Chinese economics is our predisposition to accept their financial statements and financial data as having SOME level of reliability. The Chinese have leveraged their grand illusion to bleed capital from the West and keep the ball rolling. I'm of the opinion that debt/liabilities regularly disappear from financial statements and economic data. "All the risk rolls up to the government, and then it become a question of credibility...and do people want to hold the liabilities of that government?" That is true to a point. Because the Chinese have no respect for Western accounting, the "rolled-up" liabilities cease to exist..."poof"...they'd disappeared. This is what short-circuits all market forces and allows the economic illusion to continue indefinitely.

[@dameongeppetto]

It is a mafioso mentality. West: you owe me $1 billion dollars in interest on that loan I gave you, CCP. China (while polishing their gun on the table): what are you talking about, I don't owe you any money. Who dis? New phone.

[@theonlyconstantischange123]

​@@dameongeppettoit's an interesting game when you realize there are no rules

[@famouschappi]

Tell that to Arthur Anderson!

[@waynegore5291]

I got to invite Gordon Chang, the best china expert. LOL

[@gscorsone]

Incredible content, and a level of understanding that I haven’t heard before. Thank you.

[@ralphhardie7492]

Thanks That's a great report. Lots of very interesting insights. Appreciate the overview and words of experience. 🎉🎉🎉

[@nickmccabe224]

Easily the best analysis Ive seen regarding the current situation in China, thanks guys.

[@fernandopimentel5463]

Same, and I've seen many

[@chemicalhalf]

This was one of my favourite interviews I've ever watched. Thanks and please do an update soon.

[@ToneGuruLA]

Too much debt. Over priced RE. Govt reckless spending. Liabilities piling up. Interest rates artificially low. Insane borrowing. "Now they are stuck". Is this China? Europe? or the US?

[@karylhogan5758]

China

[@mostlyguesses8385]

China has problems but does have super hardworking population who will work for $10000/yr and not expect any welfare or health benefits. This is better than France or UK or US. But yeah China has been dumb financially.....

[@karylhogan5758]

@@mostlyguesses8385 there is little work now and wages slashed.

[@mostlyguesses8385]

@@karylhogan5758 .... By definition there is always work, even if lower paid and grunt work. It's the genius of market forces... one might even say the West with Unions and Welfare and MUCH HIGHER TAXES is worse at choking off the desire to work... China has great labor policy but awful corrupt leaders.

[@disiaosiao5931]

China. Black box.

[@SavanaT]

Jack is the best host on youtube. Did the guest say "When Shanghai was a cow pasteur?" - Sir, Shanghai has been an international metropolitan city for hundreds of years... Regarding Chinese real estate, sounds to me like what's happening there is no different than what's happening in U.S. stock market. Both were/are ponzis, exept theirs have burst, ours have yet to pop. They overbuilt real estate, and we're over building capital/market prices. The U.S. has the reserve currency, thus we can export inflation/fiat for far longer than China can. China is less concerned about the stock market 🙏

[@davidtydeman1434]

Pudong which is across the river from the Bund ins Shanghai was undeveloped in the 1950s. Shanghai has been a major city for hundreds of years but was much smaller in area and population.

[@Kukaboora]

This author makes total sense. He has the best read and analysis of China economy. This is the first time I have a profound understanding of the difference between entrepreneurial and central planning economics.

[@dankurth4232]

Yep capitalism has lots of shortcomings and failures - socialism on the other hand is just one failure

[@johaarup]

​@@dankurth4232 the golden line is a bit of both. (Scandinavia)

[@skydragon23101979]

He has great understanding of Chinese economy but like most economist he ignores the effects of geopolitics and he is slightly ideological bias. There are 2 situations that he mentions that he is skeptical that would work hugely in China’s favor one is innovation that means cars and shipbuilding plus planes, the other is the lowering of interest rates in US.

[@BenRovello]

Concerns of a potential debt default in China triggered a market sell-off, impacting both digital and traditional stock markets.

[@Muller_Andr]

Uncertainty surrounding Evergrande's situation fuels global financial fear as the Chinese haven't clarified their stance.

[@AadhilaEesha]

Japanese companies with operations in China, like Hitachi Construction Machinery, saw market value declines.

[@FranciszekPawal]

A potential Evergrande bailout could cause losses for Beijing banks and bondholders, with minimal global impact.

[@AadhilaEesha]

I've worked in construction across Asia, mainly Japan and China. The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ who shorted the Chinese index . she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.

[@BenRovello]

Shorting the Chinese index is a bold move, is this a continuous strategy or just a one time thing and who is this Monica if I may and how did you make such a turn over?

[@MrKbtor2]

Always great guests and great insight here. Look forward to more.

[@无畏无知者-i5o]

In China you can buy gold, but every purchase is registered so the gold can be easily confiscated. And it is illegal to take gold out of China. They will stop and confiscate gold at the airport.

[@awjames1121]

You cannot buy gold in china using unguarantee usa dollars???... so usa dollars is consider useless inside China??...all due to usa not dare to assure and guarantee its usa dollars notes???... so if usa dont guarantee it dollars for hold??. Then china also ban usa dollars for buying gold in china also???..

[@awjames1121]

China is smart ban gold from bring out of china???...

[@PS-ej2xn]

China is practically dead.

[@JesseLockeHere2Do]

Who does a policy like this help? Is it meant to help anyone or is it retaliatory? @@awjames1121

[@gusdeng6082]

Just spoke my relatives. They have no problem buying gold bars and gold ornaments.@@awjames1121

[@rajcha8976]

Didn't it sound like what we are doing in the US .?

[@aaronb8698]

Israel should buy a condo in China for everyone in gaza so they can live in a place were they don't have to fight eachother every day.

[@ln6593]

Nah, they just need to buy up all commercial real estate in NYC & convert them to residential all with US tax money & move there. Many of them have US citizenship like Blinken so it would be a very quick solution.

[@alee2204]

you have no moral and a sense of shaming in saying things like this.

[@aaronb8698]

With all due respect, thousands of years of murder and hatred. I think space between BOTH nations is a much better alternative that current arrangements. Maby the kidds of the next generation dont even need to be taught to hate at all and practice democracy.

[@macmcleod1188]

@aaronb8698 hasn't been thousands of years. The area was Canaanite in the bronze age. It was isrealite for most of the Iron Age and it was Roman for about 700 years after that until 600 something A.D. And it was strongly controlled property of the Ottoman Empire through the 1917. It didn't really start getting violent until around 1900 when the Muslims in the area began having pogroms against the jews those combined with the Holocaust led to the establishment of both States

[@terriplays1726]

They all fight over their one holy hill they really want to have, if it was only about a place to live a solution would have been found long time ago.

[@ewright4108]

Brilliant analysis.

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks Jack! Great show

[@tananga_studio]

Very good guest!!!

[@robhappe906]

Music to my ears

[@airbjorn4435]

I lived in China for a long time, this guy knows what he's talking about. He really understands the people's mentality as well.

[@DW-op7ly]

This guy started his China Research in 2012? The firm I was working with we were buying in the 1990s And I personally was dumping out by 2010 And fully out by 2011 😂 He is putting too much emphasis on real estate that is where the Chinese hold their wealth they won’t be selling because those homes are for their future grandkids In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest

[@Tespri]

@@DW-op7ly there are twice as many houses in china than population... Those houses are not for their kids, heck they collapse in couple years after they were build and there is no maintenance to them.

[@DW-op7ly]

You have no clue what you are taking about. When was the last time you spoke with a Chinese person and they told you my parents kicked me out at 18, spent all their savings. Borrowed and spent even more and left me with nothing 👇 Evergrande Tycoon Crossed a Red Line When Wealth Funds Ran Dry Police are fielding complaints by wealth product investors China authorities have less tolerance for losses by households China Evergrande Group wiped out international investors, roiled financial markets and left thousands of suppliers in the lurch. Yet it was the developer’s failure to pay households who invested in its wealth management products that may have provided the last straw for Chinese authorities. Bloomberg

[@DW-op7ly]

This guy started researching investment opportunities in China in 2012? I started researching investment opportunities China in 1988 Even then I learned that people talking China proper back then were missing the fact China already had a “Go Out Policy” where its people and companies were going to places like SE Asia. Where the ethnic Chinese dominate the economies of those Countries and these Countries economies are dependent on the Chinese Economy 👇 Ethnic Chinese dominate PH economy by Solita Collas - Monsod on Jun 25, 2012 Truly, a picture is worth a thousand words. The pictures of the top 15 Filipino billionaires (in US dollars, mind you) in Friday’s issue of the Inquirer brought home with crystal clarity the domination of the Philippine economy by ethnic Chinese. This is, of course, not a unique situation, as it seems to be the case in all of Southeast Asia Philippine Daily Inquirer

[@DW-op7ly]

China leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future And even with their Belt and Road Initiative China still has a 800 billion dollar a year trade surplus with the world. Example India with a younger workforce, larger workforce, lower wages has a USD 90 to 100 billion a year trade deficit with China The Americans store just as much wealth in their Stock Markets whose share prices these days are propped up by companies doing (last I checked) 7 trillion in borrowed money, share buybacks The Chinese store their wealth in their Real Estate ( this article came out around the time this guy first started studying Investment opportunities in China there now are property taxes in the tier 1 cities these days) 👇 Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? Reuters September 21, 2015 * Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China’s new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not intent to use? All over the world, the value of property extends beyond the utilitarian function of being a place to live. Real estate is also a vital economic entity that presents an avenue for investment as well as a way of storing wealth * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.

[@payersystempro]

First time catching this channel, great interview! Please get a little sun.

[@Ricksworld1962]

It’s amazing how much empty talk goes on here, when the entire world banking system is manipulated and controlled

[@famouschappi]

Next you will saying the US stock market is gamed. 😅

[@Ricksworld1962]

@@famouschappi You apparently don’t understand that big money runs everything for their own benefit

[@eu7435]

I know it seems impossible, but the CCP has started a new initiative to build housing in rural communities. Yes, they are doubling-down on building more housing in China.

[@mikeshoults4155]

Maybe the party doesn't have as much control on the city states as we think they do

[@tannhaeuserx464]

Because they still have tons of poor people in rural area living in terrible housing. It is a country of a 1.4bn people. The last time I was there a few years ago, even the middle class still live in small and substandard houses--you just need to be a guest to find that out. They have not overbuilt. They just need to make poor people more productive, so they afford better housing. In a way, hiring poor people to build housing is like Ford paying $5, so his workers can eventually afford his cars.

[@TheRiiiight]

@@tannhaeuserx464 By every metric they have overbuilt and that over construction becomes more absurd because China will never be as politically suicidal as to try a western immigration system and will try to deal with a shrinking population in a rational manner. The problem is so much of it is built in a centralized manner meaning a lot of it is impractiable for use. Building concrete shells while ignoring rural towns and villages still living in 1910 serf conditions because the CCP has some weird issue with being disgusted by old chinese villages next to their modern buildings. So instead of upgrading the towns they just try to build a city in a random field like 100 miles away and try to push all those surronding townspeople into it

[@tannhaeuserx464]

@@TheRiiiight Have you been to China and see how people there live? I have been quite some time and over and been to many places. Pudong district was developed, Milton Friedman called it a Potemkin village. I think you have less clue than he did.

[@TheRiiiight]

@@tannhaeuserx464 I never said China is all underdeveloped for whatever shadows it is your trying to box with. Chinese cities are amazing and better than the dumpster fire trash heaps that passes for cities in modern America where they can't even sell commercial real estate or skyscrapers because they're literally fucking worthless. But rural china and rural america are not at all in the same ballpark when it comes to modern development.

[@andrewcross1469]

When, is definitely the only important question. Well done for including that at the end.

[@michaelquinn-xi8ku]

If your GDP is debt fueled and low margin, there won’t be enough cash flow to service the ever bigger debt load

[@sunrisejak2709]

Seems to work for USA and Japan. The can gets kicked down the road averting what would seemingly be a pending obvious disaster.

[@EmmanuelHemmerle]

That's the US.

[@DW-op7ly]

Most of Chinese debt is internal debt. Which they have stuck on their Local Governments and corporations, which they can sweep under the table The USA has even more internal debt than China has, and yes they can sweep that internal debt under the table. But the USA has shown a history of taking that internal debt and turning it into an external Sovereign debt. Which is basically sticking much of that debt, onto the American people In the end China can pay off its external Sovereign debt. The USA can’t pay off their external Sovereign debt it stuck onto its people

[@atb8660]

@@DW-op7lyI don’t know about whether they can sweep it under the table. Certainly they are getting better at rolling it over. I don’t think USA and China have similar debt risks, external debt denominated in your own currency is manageable

[@DW-op7ly]

China's Creative Accounting: How It Buried Its Debt and Forged Ahead with Stimulus What is China's secret? According to financial commentator Jim Jubak, it may just be "creative accounting" -- the sort of accounting for which Wall Street is notorious, in which debts are swept off the books and turned into "assets." China is able to pull this off because it does not owe its debts to foreign creditors. The banks doing the funding are state-owned, and the state can write off its own debts. Jubak observes: China has a history of taking debt off its books and burying it, which should prompt us to poke and prod its numbers. If we go back to the last time China cooked the national books big time, during the Asian currency crisis of 1997, we can get an idea of where its debt might be hidden now. The majority of bank loans, says Jubak, went to state-owned companies -- about 70% of the total. The collapse of China's export trade following the crisis meant that its banks were suddenly sitting on billions in debts that were clearly never going to be paid. But that was when China's largest banks were trying to raise capital by selling stock in Hong Kong and New York, and no bank could go public with that much bad debt on its books. The creative solution? The Beijing government set up special-purpose asset management companies for the four largest state-owned banks, the equivalent of the "special purpose vehicles" designed by Wall Street to funnel real estate loans off U.S. bank books. The Chinese entities ultimately bought $287 billion in bad loans from state-owned banks. To pay for the loans, they issued bonds to the banks, on which they paid interest. The state-owned banks thus got $287 billion in toxic debt off their books and turned the bad loans into an income stream from the bonds. Sound familiar? Wall Street did the same thing in the 2008 bailout, with the U.S. government underwriting the deal. The difference was that China's largest banks were owned by the government, so the government rather than a private banking cartel got the benefit of the arrangement. According to British economist Samah El-Shahat, writing in Al Jazeera in August 2009: China hasn't allowed its banking sector to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the shots or highjack the bailout. In simple terms, the government preferred to answer to its people and put their interests first before that of any vested interest or group. And that is why Chinese banks are lending to the people and their businesses in record numbers. In the US and UK, by contrast: banks have captured all the money from the taxpayers and the cheap money from quantitative easing from central banks. They are using it to shore up, and clean up their balance sheets rather than lend it to the people. The money has been hijacked by the banks, and our governments are doing absolutely nothing about that. In fact, they have been complicit in allowing this to happen. Huffington Post

[@vincentdu1961]

Brian has great knowledge of about China economy and how it works; and he could explain in a term the we all can understand! Great job. Thank you!

[@wbwarren57]

Thank you. This is extremely good. This is the best in-depth analysis that takes the right viewpoint in my opinion, which is that the CCP economy has to be analyzed completely differently from western economies. This guy may not be right in all respects with respect to what is going to happen in the future, but at least he’s hitting the nail on the head, in analyzing the CCP economy in his own unique fashion.

[@jeffreycurtiss4718]

This is the best analysis i have heard on the Chinese economy. Well done!

[@jpurpleyou]

😂😂😂a relative works for an American aeronautic manufacturer and was contracted by China to work on their 737 knockoff. They constantly pressured him to show them his Boeing and Airbus manuals. 7 years and counting and still no airplane😂😂😂

[@DW-op7ly]

China leads in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future but let’s just focus on where they are behind on right now 🙄. In fact there is a 7 volume 27 book series on what the Chinese invented that says we stole from them Including the invention of the Rocket What happened to China you might ask? China spent the better part of a millennia trading places with India for top economy in the world By the 1430s it was by far the top economy and technological leader in the world . But their emperor at the time started the slow process of closing in on itself closing off its borders their own nationalism Like we are seeing with far right Governments and you Americans these days This lead to 400 years of decline and then an eventual semi colonization of China for 100 more years And They did not run up the external debt like you Americans are running up these days 👇 IP Theft Is What Once Helped Make America Great That was certainly the case for the United States. The practice of grabbing intellectual property was a staple of U.S. economic strategy since the outset of the nation’s founding. The play Hamilton has brought new and deserved respect to the first secretary of the treasury. But his many economic achievements should not blind us to the fact that theft of intellectual property was a linchpin of his manufacturing strategy. RealClearMarkets

[@MLBlanc-mh4pw]

Will never work because they don’t have the secret aether tech from the hidden millennium history

[@gusdeng6082]

919 made in China flying making domestic flights and soon international flights. 929 is under test. At the recent air show in Singapore they received many international orders. There's no need for recipes. Make a trip to China to see for your self.

[@pikachus5m166]

Why would they copy the 737 with its problems of crashing?.

[@prae7068]

Great guest! Fascinating stuff.

[@jonayfool]

The world is deep in Greed and Gluttony. Balance is key. Portions of food at restaurants and packaged are unnecessary. Assets in portfolios of the much wealthier are too great. The per person demand for each of these categories is unbalanced.

[@themtoniraniremaxbroker2447]

Absolutely Riveting!! Many Thanks Sir!!

[@KundislavPicovson]

Such a good podcast, contains everything you need to know about the most important macro-economic elements in China on a national level and in global context.

[@gdan8599]

It was a v good interview, like that you let everyone take all the time they need💯

[@FaithfulObjectivist]

Clear and easygoing discussion of a critical geopolitical matter. Thanks

[@Oscarfreeman-cn9rc]

After buying TSLA shares for 10 years, I'm struggling to make gains presently. How can I adjust or revamp a million dollar portfolio to make profits steadily, or do I consider defensive investments despite market high?

[@FaithAndrada-xo9ou]

dollar cost average into the stock. when the price goes down, buy puts and reinvest to bring your average down, or better still seek professional guidance to avoid any fiasco

[@AndersonFair-cy2bb]

The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date.

[@OnyedikachiKing-bk6od]

good gains! how can I get such guidance if you dont mind me asking? i am 34 and new to investing, my ultimate goal is to set myself up for financial success so I can retire early and comfortable

[@AndersonFair-cy2bb]

Can't divulge much, I take guidance from *Whitney Kay Stacy* ' a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.

[@OnyedikachiKing-bk6od]

thankfully came across the consulting page of melissa Maureen Ward just after inputting her full name on the web, i'm super impressed with her qualifications and it was easy to schedule a call session with her

[@Time4Peace]

The real estate problems are not China's priority. It's not baling out the these real estate companies which violated government regulations introduced a few years ago. However, Western observers always see the property downturns as the lynchpin of China's economic collapse. China learns not to follow Japan's solution to the property collapse in 1990's leading to the lost decades.

[@DanSme1]

FINALLY! I've discovered someone who understands China's economic/banking ILLUSION. Brian, don't forget to explain how the PBOC must maintain (manipulate) the VALUE of the Yuan to continue to engage in foreign trade. The Yuan has been inflated to the point of being worthless from a market perspective, it only has value based on the Chinese "GRAND ILLUSION."

[@fernmoss-456]

I haven't been to China but from what I have dug up online most parts look like a third world country. They show a city at night with the lights on so it resembles a Western city like New York but the reality is women are choosing sex work in droves and the average worker lives in poverty.

[@mostlyguesses8385]

Yep China is identical to Brazil just bigger.. mostly peasants who can't count or read their tough language, and corrupt politicians who demand cut of profits.... I almost feel bad for them..

[@famouschappi]

The best sex workers are from US. Number one!

[@captaindoomsdayreloaded6685]

This is your best video. Very sound financial advice. Good job.

[@Samson373]

The ICBMs that China has aimed towards the US almost certainly run on American-designed chips. Seems absolutely insane that the US allowed that to happen. Now that the US finally has a Chips Act, it seems masochistic to have left so many wide gaps in it. Makes my blood boil.

[@CautionHighWavesAhead-]

The corruption of the two-party system is to blame. This is a great point you made.

[@cooldudecs]

americans have a back door in the chips... This was stated and why Xi is purging everyone... He knows we know they are defenseless

[@otterinbham9641]

The head of the Chinese rocket forces was recently sacked because it was found that a huge proportion of their strategic missiles were non-functioning. As in the fuel tanks were actually filled with water.

[@kangkim150]

You would be surprised to learn that chips that go into space in the modern day still use ancient chips from the early 90’s. Chips act does not solve that.

[@zacklewis342]

Microchips are just a commodity now like corn or wood. They have proliferated around the world and can't be regulated away except at the bleeding edge, which aren't needed for ICBMs (we had those in the 60s).

[@lwang5534]

Thanks for the guest’s insights. Very helpful. Please invite him back more on China. ❤

[@richardk111]

As an observer of Japan’s post-bubble economy, I see a lot of parallels. Given the power of the central government in China, I don’t think we’re going to see collapses like we’d seen in other economies like Greece or Argentina; rather, a protracted stagnation like we’d seen in Japan similar to Japan’s Lost Decades. In any case, I don’t think China’s nominal GDP will surpass the US for a long time ~ if not ever.

[@skydragon23101979]

There is 2 things that is in China’s favors that he dismisses one is US lowering interest rates should a recession hit US 2 innovation in China holding up the GDP. China unlikely to go the way of Japan because China has innovation on her side whereas Japan had the plaza accord and the chip restrictions that destroyed Japan’s economy. China has BRI and chip breakthroughs plus innovation. Besides China still has BRICS currency.

[@danielch6662]

PPP conversion factor to market exchange rate for Japan is 0.95, and only 0.61 for China. There is a lot more headroom for China.

[@skydragon23101979]

@@danielch6662 Yup exactly there is plenty of options for China’s growth in the short term.

[@SumTingWong888]

@@skydragon23101979How did the Plaza accord destroy Japan economy may I asked?

[@skydragon23101979]

@@SumTingWong888 The plaza accord devalues the dollar and indirectly raises the value of Japanese yen which to an export driven economy is a huge blow.

[@michaeljohnston8265]

Its all relative. He talks about 10s of million empty properties, but the UK has 1 million. As a % of population the Uk number is higher.

[@CMB21497]

He forgot to mention food. The Chinese import most of their food as well.

[@pushslice]

Or goes and steals it from other countries’ maritime EEZs. as Trade and/or diplomatic ties weaken, these countries will be much less tolerant of these incursions .

[@gusdeng6082]

Not true. Some not most.

[@SumTingWong888]

they import 60% of food or component to make food like fertilizer

[@pushslice]

They either import it in the legitimate/conventional way, or they simply go into other peoples’ fishing grounds and steal it. < Waves hello from the Republic of the Philippines>

[@togoni]

Great interview 👍

[@nuriy]

Trouble yes, collapse no… people react to problems and adjust their problem solving technique if the solutions aren’t working

[@richardmcknight3650]

The Ponzi -Fiat system used world wide, you can be SURE it will collapse sooner or later. The Romans invented the scheme, because of greed, it collapsed & everyone using it since then collapsed, this great Ponzi system will do also.

[@williamlloyd3769]

Great interview. Fills in more of the story of China’s economy and prospects. Appreciate the quick take on impact of Chinese slump on the rest of the world. External impact deserves its own video discussion.

[@louisgiokas2206]

The overbuild in housing in the US in the 2008 crisis was, I have seen reported, 2-4%. In China it may be as high as 100%. Even if the number were 25% that is at least an order of magnitude larger. The number of mortgages that are underwater is large and growing. People are willing to "give away" their properties. The idea here is that the new owner would just take over the mortgage. The original buyer would lose their downpayment and any other equity they have paid in but would be out of the mortgage. The option of personal bankruptcy in China does not exist. The government has actually been advertising, on electronic billboards, the names and ID information of over 8M defaulters, many of them homeowners. These people are restricted from using public transport in many cases, among other things. On top of all of this there is the demographic crisis. Where is demand going to come from? The number of births is now lower than at time since the CCP took over. It is down 53% from the takeover. As for the financial institutions, by western standards they would be insolvent. Several in their "shadow banking" sector, some of the biggest, have already failed. A big portion of the assets on their books is real estate. Disregard the official statistics. Housing stock in the used market is massive and prices are down somewhere between 25% and 50% depending on the location. Even in commercial office space, some of the biggest, richest cities are seeing 20% vacancy rates with no relief in sight. Don't forget the belt and road projects. The numbers I have seen show that 60% of those loans are at risk or non-performing. By the way, while the counterparty risk was the big issue in 2008, the origin of the issue was government intervention in the housing market.

[@TR-xr4ut]

Those buildings in China, have you seen them? They might crumble after another 20 years, even without a natural disaster.

[@louisgiokas2206]

@@TR-xr4ut It only makes sense. You don't actually own the land, the state does. It is also a brilliant way to keep your construction buddies in business, constantly repairing and replacing. The construction industry is a good solid source of graft for the officials. So, everyone is happy, no?

[@TR-xr4ut]

@@louisgiokas2206 No, it costs money to build them, money that home buyers paid with their life savings and retirement funds, they throw everything into that apartment.

[@louisgiokas2206]

@@TR-xr4ut I am not sure how your comment is relevant to my comment. "No" what? Please elaborate.

[@Dreadwolf3155]

that's brutal

[@philblum1496]

Many commenters on KZbin have similar observations, e.g., Peter Zeihan and Joe Blogs, but this depth of analysis is really profound.

[@matthewmorgan9269]

I've always liked Brian, he's a good communicator

[@TruthRules2]

Great analysis!

[@Tytyrytkataaa]

Basically what i got from this interview is that most of what was said applies to the US to whatever extent as well. Key exception being that China is authoritarian run and the government has no one else to pass the hot potato to in 4 years time and has decided to pop the bubble. And its worth noting that it has actually afford itself to do so. Who else can? On a side note, one funny thing Brian mentioned is that deflation is wealth destruction. But so is inflation, so what’s up with that?

[@davisutton1]

Deflation destroys the wealth of the wealthy by driving capital asset prices lower while inflation drives the wealth and survivability of those without much wealth into poverty. So, he is correct but the question that should be addressed is "Is it better to have credit inflated assets collapse in price, the blameless wealth of the rich or is it better to have a lower cost of living. The caveat to that is that many of those who are not well off will lose their jobs and suffer along with the rich. The short answer is that we actually need a depression and the sooner we have it the better. Too many people who are otherwise sound talk of the hardship as unimaginable that comes with a depression but to quote Brian "that ship has already sailed." We will have hardship regardless and turning a few dials (say, liquidity injection or interest rate reductions) will not solve that conundrum.

[@skydragon23101979]

@@davisutton1So actually deflation is infinitely worst than hyperinflation? Deflation the wealth of the rich is destroyed but the poor lose their jobs. Inflation the poor moves into poverty but may maintain their jobs while the rich get richer?

[@benberkowitz9617]

I'm thinking is he describing the way the US works?

[@heroes8844]

deflation is 10 times much worst, it mean your people no longer have the money to buy things and drove the economic downward while inflation means its a healthy economic, just dont inflate like 100%

[@edsteadham4085]

In the 1930s deflation parts of the country literally tan out of cash. No one was willing to surrender a dollar today for a pair of shoes because those shoes would sell for 90 cents next week. Utah tried to put in place faux currency of sorts so farmers could sell wheat to buy diesel. Deflation is nasty stiff. Read the forgotten man by amity shlales

[@tananga_studio]

Latest news: China set target for 2024 and its 5% xxxxddddd

[@JSteve22]

Great insights. Is China still the leader of the BRICS?

[@alexv3357]

Brics isn't even a thing, it's literally a marketing term made up by Goldman Sachs. The organisation is essentially just a forum for discussion and has no power

[@10tenman10]

Great guest. Fantastic interview

[@kalloh5519]

Great qualified guest on Chinese markets...would like to see more of him!

[@janicewolk6492]

People, including your clients, are greedy.

[@melolonthamelolontha9099]

I have a question: What happens if Russia runs out of money? The Russian state fund has already been halved. Would the Chinese still be able to support Russia with loans or would they do so? Thanks and greetings from Germany

[@matthewmorgan9269]

I can answer that. China has always looked after itself first. They realise the leaders of Russia are as dumb as mullets and will try to screw them

[@danielch6662]

The US has been running deficits for how long now, and who has been extending more and more loans to the US?

[@melolonthamelolontha9099]

@@danielch6662 The USA is creditworthy and can borrow on the capital market as normal. But who will lend to Russia? Russia has no problem in its own currency, but no one really wants the rouble at the moment.

[@FRIPPE_THE_GREAT]

When the warchest is empty (6-8 months?), Putin will resort to dictators' favourite hobby: printing money. What could go wrong?

[@docarreglos6945]

Russia has no bubble and are selling oil and gas as it wouldn’t exist tomorrow. Look the strong ( relativ) ruble

[@cvrart]

I like the Harold Lloyd look. You're just missing the boater hat ;-)

[@kryts27]

China has a different economy than Western capitalist countries. In the West, at least 70% of the wealth is in private hands. When there is a bubble followed by a stock market shock, for example in 1929, then private capital collapses. The economy remains in the doldrums for up to half a decade until growing consumption needs slowly drags it back to normality. In China's case, 70% of the wealth is in the hands of the government in LGI's, SOE's, Central government corporations, and so on. The approximately remaining 30% is private holdings, which have severely collapsed. Large China banks are recycling government debt. The government owns the banks, which loan to the government which pay off the debt to the banks that the government owns ad neuseum. Small privately owned China banks have already collapsed. Meanwhile there is NO private holding liquidity in China. Even large corporations, like Alibaba where the founder is Jack Ma, has lost 78% of it's value. Finally, the CCP are going after foreign commercial law firms and accounting companies in China (to start with). This is the manifestation of the CCP's fiat Foreign Anti Espionage Law in which a SUSPICION of espionage by Western and other non-Chinese Asian individuals and their foreign firms can land them in a Chinese jail for an indetermined period of time (the is no Habeas Corpus in China) with trading indefinitely frozen for that company. Foreign companies are leaving China in ever increasing droves, including large Western banks like Bank of America. When banks leave, you know investment is at a dead end. The future of China also looks very bleak, so for the eternal hopefuls out there, go invest instead in India or Indonesia. Your investment risk is now lower than China's with potentially higher returns, like in the early days of China, as these very large countries economies are still largely under developed with a young dynamic demographic. However, In terms of demographics of China, it is literally in terms of growth at a terminal end thanks to the One Child Policy. China's median population age is now higher than the United States. Old people are not heavy consumers. This failing demographic for China is unrecoverable for the next 40 years. Go elsewhere.

[@mostlyguesses8385]

It wasn't One Child Policy, they didn't build enough hospitals, daycares, schools, and police who would stop 1m kidnappings. With this situation from 1990 to 2020 avg Chinese mom said ok zero or 1 kid for me. Only exception is the 10% rich and 20% very small villages. The commies chose this by having a sucky country. US sucks in other ways ... India and Indonesia at the least dont have massive child kidnapping the police ignore...

[@tradespx9055]

Wow, very informative interview guys!

[@davidwestwater2219]

That's the exact same model that we're doing. We're just rolling over our debt over and over again. It is not sustainable.

[@mattanderson6672]

Interesting interview!! Thank you!!

[@rd9102]

Would really like to see you interview Kyle Bass to juxtapose against what is said here and see how it lines up.

[@mostlyguesses8385]

Kyle Bass, Brian McCarthy, and Michael Pettis, all sorta agree.

[@AdrianFilipDumitriu]

Lool ..look who's talking aahaha. my God !!

[@无畏无知者-i5o]

It is now illegal for taxi drivers in China to talk to people about sensitive topics. Every conversation in the taxi’s these days are monitored and censored in real time.

[@EmmanuelHemmerle]

Not true.

[@anthonyyoung6489]

Great content.

[@bpb5541]

Just think what is going to happen in America when folks realize the same thing has happened over here but not just in Real Estate but with everything. The actual value of assets in the US are half of what people think they are.

[@ninam4066]

very interesting, thank you

[@zacharydaniels3186]

Riveting. Awesome info.

[@8cor153]

That was the best China analysis I have ever seen.

[@johnminichielli8957]

Short seller Jim Chanos put out the warning years ago and no one listened.

[@asafgr]

thanks, great interview!

[@laurentdrozin812]

European economy is deeply dependent on China, both on the import side, but also on the export side. What prevents China to mandate that part of its trade with Europe is labelled in Chinese currency? That would be a very aggressive move, but I don't see how we could say no without shutting down our economy.

[@l.a.mottern3106]

The EU is really over a barrel these days. I'm sure the US would freak out :-D

[@karylhogan5758]

Rubbish🙄..we know Chinese stuff rubbish 🇪🇺

[@danielch6662]

China is not this evil monster out to hurt the US. They just want to build better lives for their own people. Americans is always worried about China can hurt them in a million different ways. Well, yes. They can. But they don't want to. Let's not push them to the wall and try to force them.

[@schopen-hauer]

minute they did that whole financial system in europe would implode, so the eu would just say no.

[@highwayred480]

Confucius say he who talks at night say things in the day 😂 we have apot mint🎉

[@user-99.99]

Interesting. Very interesting. Thank you.

[@kesoon88]

Has this guy been to China in order to understand China actual situation? These are so call Americans of China experts

[@tomcockcroft9394]

I’m usually sceptical of American China doomsayers however he spoke lots of sense. Worrying decade for China coming

[@yangliu3224]

same here. I usually laughed at those ppl cuz it's very easy to realize mot of their thesis are BS if one knows a little about China. This guy's thesis sounds legit and this time could really be different.

[@cooldudecs]

@@yangliu3224 its not different... This is a chinese civizational collapse cycle... We are seeing absolute failure... Worse than USSR...

[@mage9825]

that was some good insights.

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

Can someone explain to me how deflation leads to a currency devaluation? Typically, during deflation, the currency gets more valuable over time...

[@netizenkane2230]

During deflation, the value of leveraged (collateral) assets stops going up, goes flat, or declines. However, the debts still have to be paid, unless there is significant defaults and deleveraging. This means that cash flows become more valuable, since so many holding debt are losing their income stream and capital gains since the assets aren't producing profits. This is called debt deflation. The government and banks usually respond by debasing the currency to lower interest rates in an attempt to reflate the economy. The print money to buy bonds which lowers interest rates and reduces purchasing power of consumers.

[@DanSme1]

Terms such as inflation or deflation have different meanings, such as monetary inflation or economic deflation. Yes, it’s confusing for those getting started in money, banking, and economics. Brian and I need to start a KZbin channel covering the basics. Best advice: buy a used Economics textbook book by the late, extraordinary Campbell R. McConnell, professor at University of Nebraska, both CPA and banker. Non-Keynesian.

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

@@netizenkane2230 so you're actually talking about inflation by monetary stimulus after a deflationary debt default cycle. Again, how does the deflation itself lead to a currency devaluation without subsequent inflationary monetary stimulus....??

[@netizenkane2230]

In extreme deflationary events, there can be capital flight and a reverse in foreign direct investment. This is one of the reasons governments tend to intervene. Also somebody has to take the losses on the deflating assets, which usually means banks, and then bank regulators (deposit guarantee corp.), i.e. government. This can hurt long term growth prospects. It can have far reaching consequences.@@elliotthovanetz1945

[@netizenkane2230]

Rampant deflation can cause capital flight and collapse in FDI flows. Lending collapses. Banks will take losses and have to be bailed out or see depositors lose. Credit markets seize up and rates will go much higher. High rates can restrict economic activity which hurts long term growth prospects for both public and private sector. @@elliotthovanetz1945​

[@malcolmliang]

Very insightful thank you for the update.

[@kq1965]

its very different if he called it 2.5 years ago compared to calling it now.

[@Whyusemyname]

Great analysis. Guest knows his stuff

[@Robertgriffinne]

Every crash/collapse/inflation/recession provides an equal market opportunity if you are properly prepared and knowledgeable. I've seen people amass up to $800,000 during crises and even with ease in a bad economy. Someone has undoubtedly become extremely wealthy as a result of the crash.

[@Patriciacraig599]

I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience

[@BrixtonJenny]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@wellsHannahh]

Could you kindly leave your investment advisor's contact information here? I absolutely must have one.

[@Aziz__0]

could you be kind enough with details of your advisor please?

[@BrixtonJenny]

She goes by 'Natalie Ann Brinkman'. I choose to delegate my excesses to her because of her great expertise. I suggest you look her up. To be honest, almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finances, but so glad I did!!!

[@GeorgiaJoe-qw9fk]

Chinese population structure is: 16 grandparents. 8 uncles and aunts. 4 children. So, the total population 16+8+4=28 20 years later, 16 grandparents passed away. ❤ 2 new children will be born. The total population becomes 8+4+2=14. China’s population will be halved from 28 to 14 in one generation. Imagine how bad the domestic consumption and investment could be. plus the decoupling, China’s export could be worse and worse.

[@GeorgiaJoe-qw9fk]

@umbrellastudio7481 everyone knows the One Child Policy that killed more than 200 million fetuses.

[@chicanohek]

Shanghai was a cow pasture 20 years ago? Hahahhahahahaha! What a joke! Did you ever have hair good sir?

[@michael2275]

Collectivism always ends in tears.

[@doctorstreamspunk9996]

For the last 20 years sophisticated Chinese investors have been buying US real estate instead of buying into the Chinese Ponzi scheme. My retiring friends in Pasadena sold their house in San Marino to a Chinese couple and paid cash for a much larger house outside Dallas Texas.

[@ralphsimpson4593]

The most common question I was asked was where is the best place to buy real estate outside of China.