China v. Ukraine with Elbridge Colby; TikTok's Clock; Election Meddling Is Cool Now? | GoodFellows

Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resources-and in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming America’s military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find one’s soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual “slap up” dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
© 2024 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.

[@pauliusdotpro]

Goodfellows might the the highest quality podcast on the internet, thank you all for making it

[@fbinformant]

🤤

[@donaldedward4951]

Really?

[@garbonomics]

Fantastic show, gentlemen. I'm thrilled that you brought Elbridge Colby on board. It's an area where I've consistently arrived at different conclusions than the goodfellows and found myself in disagreement. Mr. Colby happens to be one of the individuals I've agreed with on this topic for quite some time, and I found it refreshing to see him express the viewpoint that resonates more closely with mine.

[@PlanetFrosty]

HR is right on the money with clear and concise analysis of the situation.

[@waylandforge8704]

Looking at the US from the other side of the world, as I do, America looks like a weak divided country who can't be trusted to support it's allies. American support for its allies obviously depends who's in office and who wants to score political points with the american public. America will always resolve matters in its favour and if that means sacrificing it allies and defence agreements, then it will.

[@whistlingwind5900]

@waylandforge8704 Both parties and Americans in general change the policies they support over time. The Democrats are not forever the party that supports a particular policy, and neither are the Republicans. We are a democracy, not an authoritarian country. If you want stable policy go be allies with authoritarians who murder their own people rather than listen to their whims of support country X or abandon country Y.

[@ryanward10]

Good. Everyone should stand up for themselves. The days of World Police are over. Build your own army, or suck up to Russia or China. Good luck.

[@smithb0134]

Exactly. It's called America first.

[@glennmitchell9107]

No nation ever (knowingly) sacrificed its own interests in favor of an ally. Why should the U.S. be any different? It's the responsibility of the dependent nation to ensure its interests are closely tied to the patron nation's interests. Ideally, those interests should be indistinguishable.

[@michaeljoenks4633]

I hate, as an American, to admit it, but I think you are correct.

[@--Dani]

Good one at the end Bill 👍🏻

[@lawrencefrost9063]

Scott blocking? Yeah that was funny.

[@Pdotta1]

For once I’m in complete agreement with the guys. TikTok should have been banned years ago. Day One. No brainer indeed.

[@a.s.clifton544]

I’m just a broken down old Marine NCO, but if the United States has the will to defend itself (what do procurement numbers look like outside my Beloved Corps, General?) the only moral course from down here in the weeds is Peace Through Superior Firepower. Job one of our armed services must be to be so frightening to potential enemies that they won’t even consider testing us. Every proposal, initiative, study, etc. must begin with the question, “How does this demonstrably increase our lethality?”

[@thecount1001]

i'm just a layman observer in Cda and i couldn't agree more. and we should dramatically increase our spending to stand with you in strength in preparation for what's coming. anything less is folly, at our peril. the precautionary principle is staring us in the face.

[@-Gramps]

Obviously, you were one of the many SMART NCOs that they should have sent to OCS!

[@theartfuldodger8609]

Thank you for your service ❤

[@MauriceSpaceCowboy]

Ask and ye shall receive! Great discussion with Colby in this episode.

[@felixf.3392]

It is unrealistic for the USA and its allies to catch up with the global South in terms of production capacity and thereby save their world order for the following reason: The old industrialized countries have outsourced their production capacities to the developing countries. The reason for this was that they wanted to generate the greatest possible profit for shareholders through low wages. As a result, the ruling class has placed itself at the forefront of value creation without letting the population share in the profits. For this reason, the old industrial nations are not producing steel and are closing coal mines. Because their industry is no longer competitive with developing countries due to their strong currencies and relatively high wages. For this reason, Western economies can no longer exploit their production potential. That is why Russia, whose arms budget is ten percent as large as that of the USA, produces five times as much artillery. The ruling class in America and Western Europe wants to save a world order that has created the very problem described above. That is impossible.

[@RN-lo6xc]

Very sober and intuitively precise statement of the issue. Free market capitalism works well in a closed system, but implementing it in a globalised marketplace inevitably clashes with geopolitical reality - our manufacturers (China/India) are not our friends and prioritise their own political and military goals. Our digital/financial giants (JPMorgan/McKinsey/Google) are not ‘ours’ as such, and do business with our geopolitical rivals. The pursuit of extremely efficient profit production has seen the benefit of innovation flowing out of the cumulative west to a substantial degree. Manufacturing should have been contained within the western ‘club’ (US, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea, AUS) to avoid the checkmate we find ourselves in. The future is anyone’s guess. The only sign if hope I see is that the Chinese economy is highly integrated with the west - we are the ones buying up most of what they produce. Whether that will probe a factor is beyond me.

[@vaughanbean1156]

Got some good points here.

[@StereoSpace]

Actually, it's basic economics. The lowest cost producer, all other things being equal, will simply drive everyone else out of business. If one producer builds their product in Vietnam and everyone else builds them in France at 2-3 times the cost, which product is the consumer going to choose?

[@RaymondLi604]

Just look at global ship building stats...

[@timtrewyn453]

The global South might have an opportunity building military equipment and munitions to NATO standards.

[@paulmobley9645]

The comment of US strangling China (33:38) from the position of military weakness was the most important comment of many statements made by Elbridge. Like the US position vs Japan leading to the bombing of Pearl Harbor (1941). I would like to know more about recent developments emerging in EU after the failed 2023 offensive of Ukraine, fall of Avdivka, poor use of US armed vehicles, lack of municians support, and more importantly the turn of Russian forces numbers, strategy, and lessons learned from early failures. British troops in Ukraine supporting the Storm Shadow missiles, German sending Taurus missiles to target Kerch Bridge, HIMARS MGM-140 ATACMS going further behind frontlines, Swedish air-support with Gripen fighter jets, to counter Russian recent air threats. These counter measures all sound very close to escalation in Europe from weakness. Now the Macron is threatening to send in French

[@markl8561]

Best podcast in a world full of podcasts.

[@keahilumho8914]

Love Mr Ferguson.

[@stooge389]

YES ***FINALLY*** AN EPISODE WITHOUT AN ECONOMIST jkjkjkjkj John ily

[@stevemiller2288]

Simply put, you guys are awesome. I sit back in amazement and watch how you string words together effortlessly. Regarding how you met your wives, I met my wife in a random way as well. 44 years and counting.

[@kimberleywarren8679]

HR, what about the gouging of the American people by defense companies over charging. Ridiculous! Maybe we should look at buying high quality weapons from South Korea for 1/2 the price. Our weapons companies remind me of the car companies in the 80s. Hello from Detroit.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

45:35 Thanks H.R. I was a few seconds to writing down exactly that comment. Jinx!!

[@advocate1563]

Genuinely concerning time

[@nancychace8619]

Agree.

[@llCopyFoxll]

Best of luck Bill!

[@tabithadorcas7763]

Good stuff as always! Thank you!

[@kittlee3704]

Please relax, Bill. Anyone would be lucky to have you.

[@collintrytsman3353]

excellent as always

[@Silious950]

Anyone else get strong “Tucker” vibes from the new guest?

[@MrSpermstar]

It's called being a realist

[@RN-lo6xc]

Quite the opposite.

[@Sphere723]

Yeah, it's scary how much of the US right is trying find every excuse possible to let Putin conquer Ukraine.

[@peredavi]

Excellent discussion. I haven’t heard or read much from Eldridge Colby. Very smart views and adds greatly to this discussion.

[@user-yw4rx6kb3r]

These guys might sound smart on video or paper...... however in practice it's a whole different story.

[@julesfisher3551]

France, Italy, Germany and UK should be making clear commitment to be the primary supplier to Ukraine and USA secondary supplier. In Asia, Korea, Japan and Australia should be the primary supplier with the USA being the secondary supplier. In The middle East the USA needs to be the primary supplier. If the respective countries cannot provide the physical goods, then they should be providing the cash to buy on the world market.

[@MG-ye1hu]

I think you don't realize how strong China already is militarily. Only the US will be able to keep them in check. And only if it focuses mainly on China. It is the great delusion of the US that it is still so powerful that it can control the entire world. This is not the case anymore.

[@jordizee]

"To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, To be a friend is fatal."

[@3cosmo]

Hi Ivan

[@StereoSpace]

Weird that every free nation on Earth struggles to get under the protection of the USA. Listen to leaders of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia - or go to Europe and listen to the Brits, the Norwegians, the Poles - all list a security alliance with the USA as their number one requirement.

[@kingcrazymani4133]

Greetings from Quincy, Massachusetts!! HR’s bookshelves are very distracting.

[@RN-lo6xc]

An excellent discussion (as always), but I must disagree with the Good General on his characterisation of the TikTok issue. Presenting TikTok in the west as crack and TikTok in China as spinach is an indictment of the free market for ideas. It implies that CCP censorship/curation of social media improves societal cohesion and education. This is true in some ways, but also has negative implications for freedom of speech and thought. It is best to avoid making such comparisons as a result. Government control of the content algorithm is no better than biased private control. That said, I fully recognise the data security and espionage risk of Bytedance owning a social media company, and wish to see the divestiture/ban happen for that reason alone.

[@AndrewBarisser]

These guys are auditioning for national security advisor to next administration. Great to watch these talents and also hr McMaster 😂

[@FinnGriffin]

This episode was incredible. It felt like a NASCAR race through International Relations and Grand Strategy!

[@averytijerina3425]

Can you break down the topics on KZbin? Or timestamps I mean. I really want to jump to a specific topic.

[@brendancorrigan]

The issue with "old-school" dating now is that randomly going up to chat with a potential suitor is almost viewed as creepy. The dating apps are seen as ways to cut the *deadwood*, for better or for worse. I believe it's for the latter!

[@martinbrown9748]

I only wish these episodes were more frequent!

[@debbieallen7585]

This is the second time I have heard Bill say he is still a single eligible bachelor and I say to myself, 'dang! I wonder what he is looking for!' 😊

[@jakubjodlowski8416]

Thank you

[@thecount1001]

Scott blocking, hahahaha!

[@alexandrustefanescu8992]

16:12 love it when Americans think of European nations as buffer zones and cannon fodder..

[@Mr.barba97]

elbridge has much more consideration for Russia that Europe. he is like a realist but worse. And he wants a spot in new trump admin so.....

[@smithb0134]

That was the only reason for the creation of NATO.

[@sov19871987]

Not all of us do think that way, and a lot of us think this guy is a clown 🤡

[@artfuldiggs2206]

Free advice to the nations of Europe. Assuming that America will always be ready to bail you out militarily is a bad national defense strategy. Strong nations attract allies. Weak nations repel allies.

[@lawrencefrost9063]

Hahaha. As a Finnish person, I don't mind. He is just being poignant. I think the Swedes think of us Finns exactly the same way he describes the Poles. Something the Russians will have to go through to get to Sweden.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

38:22 Thanks for this segment.

[@RightSideNews]

Man this guy really knows how to answer a questions 😆

[@salex5412]

Gen. McMaster's and Niall Ferguson's criticism of Sen. Schumer is spot on. But was Sen. Schumer's comment political payback for Netanyahu's snubs of meeting invitations from the Obama White House in 2015 and 2016 even when Netanyahu was in Washington to give a speech to Congress -- a surprise to the US commander-in-chief?

[@jerrymiller9039]

The primary security issue for the US is our own border

[@MG-ye1hu]

I agree with Mr Colby. What happens in Ukraine, if they lose or win (whatever this means), won't influence China's decisions towards Taiwan. China's decisions will be solely based on the opportunity with regards to the overall balance of power and military means. And getting more involved in Ukraine will rather make the intervention in Taiwan more likely since the balance shifts more in their favor. Numbers are key in military, and China is bulding up their military like crazy. Mr Colby is right, we are not in a comfortable position to make good choices anymore. We need to focus on China, otherwise the west will lose the hegemonial struggle with China. It happened over and over in history that a ruling power, France under Napoleon and Germany in the first world war failed exactly because they thought they can fight multiple wars at the same time. I'm surprised that Mr Ferguson as historian does not realize this.

[@thomaspruchinski385]

Elbridge’s argument is much more convincing. McMaster stresses interconnectedness and while that seems definitely a factor - its capability in a region not worldwide perception of strength.

[@user-fl9ti9ej8g]

Colby reminds me of Tucker Carlson

[@Zaradeptus]

Yeah his mannerisms are very similar.

[@Grockrobin]

The European bloc of NATO needs to step up its military capacity in a big way to assist Ukraine and deter Russia. However I think Trump’s suggestion of the US leaving the alliance is a very dangerous one, but Europe must fully realise much of US military capacity needs to now focus on the Indo-Pacific.

[@jonnyref3475]

The contrast between HR clear points and Mr Colby is quite something.

[@vz6365]

Firmly on Elbridge’s side.

[@markb8468]

We have allies in the pacific. His argument assumes that the US would fight China alone. There are many asian countries the world be very willing to see the CCP defeated.

[@nancyjimeno7001]

I’d like to see this question answered because as a political scientist myself it’s what I am continually asked: who is really making our foreign policy decisions? Or more to the point…who’s running the country? I’ve even had people ask whether we have a Nancy Reagan situation where the First Lady is involved?

[@mcsoja]

The checks giving back a small portion of our taxes to our citizens during a pandemic is where u look for more government spending on defense budget??? 😂😂😂😂 HR McAmateur

[@egverlander]

Elbridge would be a good occasional guest, but he might be too narrow in his scope?

[@Pdotta1]

No surprise that McMaster would never acknowledge the connection between Iran-Russia-Hamas, the coming election, and Trump.

[@dgh5760]

Educate us....what do you see as the connection?

[@jimgregory6185]

Jerk

[@lettucesalad3560]

Your right.. they say what they're told by the Military Industrial Complex/Heritage Foundation.

[@Tectenitarius]

"Nash Equilibrium tactic. Establish a strategy and assume everyone will stick to theirs as well. Then, create asymmetry between what is expected by hinting that you are changing your strategy. It forces others to rethink their strategy and adjust. This shift will present targets of opportunity to exploit the situation to your advantage. It is useful to break a stalemate and force changes in outcomes. "

[@timtrewyn453]

A seaborne invasion of Taiwan is vulnerable to the use of underwater nuclear detonations. Underwater detonations do not inflict the collateral damage to civilians that air-burst detonations over land do.

[@pedrinhograna443]

Brazil is losing its freedom. Help us! 🇧🇷🇺🇸

[@smithb0134]

Along with Haiti, Darfur, Venezuela, the Balkins are heating up again, etc. Everyone wants America to come to their rescue. Everyone except a majority of Americans.

[@ninefingers6306]

"Help us" aahahahahah, se toca.

[@andreasbpunkt]

@@smithb0134 I forgot, they only get involved , when everybody says help is not wanted or needed.

[@lyonellaverde3135]

I don't share Elbridge Colby's level of pessimism. Still, I agree that at least a mimimum of preparedness is requred (the question is what level constitutes the minimum).

[@lewissmith350]

Cool show.

[@anettehall7321]

Shouldn't you be a little more worried about who is now in your country given the open border instead of worrying about what other countries are doing or not doing.

[@tomcullen8367]

Wow, what great discussion on Taiwan between HR and Bridge! I think Bridge is spot on and as HR said it is a false dichotomy. I fear the Taiwanese don't have the will to defend their country like the Ukrainians do. More like the Afghan or Iraqi Army. If China takes Taiwan and the Chip Fabs get destroyed we are looking at a Worldwide Depression and American credibility shot. Please invite Chris Brose and have him bring Palmer Lucky along to a future show.

[@deanvanlaarhoven1413]

No general, we didn't miss that jab.

[@philqueeg7677]

Another outstanding show, and Mr. Colby makes an excellent contribution to the regulars. He is obviously an exceptionally intelligent and well-informed commentator. However, the video recording was flawed: every time Mr. Colby began speaking, the video speed somehow shifted to 5x the normal pace. This made Mr. Colby erroneously resemble Ensign Willie Keith after a few beers at the O Club.

[@thomaspruchinski385]

McMaster: we can have it all even though we are severely lacking Colby: yes we are severely lacking so we can have it all Which one makes more sense?

[@andrewbaldwin4454]

Don't you mean to say "so we can't have it all", Thomas?

[@VJ-lt9uk]

Finally someone on the podcast who knows what they are talking about.

[@siuwong4588]

I must say I am very disappointed that fact that after at least one year with VERY OBVIOUSLY fact that USA is running out of weapons, no matter for supporting Ukraine or for future war with China which is highly likely, the gov is still doing nothing to improve the production. I am even more disappointed given the fact that China is such a great threat to USA and it seems both parties and quite a lot of Americans have agreed and acknowledged this, the military budget is still way below what it should be. I now share the view of some ancient chinese to a certain extent - run away and live (or hide) in very remote areas.

[@mikeutube7888]

Can someone get Niall to narrate intro to movies?

[@GentlemanJack705]

I wouldn't mind John Mearsheimer making an appearance on a future episode but so long as Stephen Kotkin is also part of the episode since Kotkin has refuted Mearsheimer's earlier assessments of the NATO vs. Russia conflict.

[@mistman5640]

33:15 I agree.

[@stooge389]

Waitwhat? Why is US vs China Tiktok so different?

[@MFJoneser]

Greetings ❤

[@milom3712]

Colby is in few leagues higher than the goodfellows, he rips apart their narrow views and arguments with such ease.

[@lembergnative7731]

no he' not. He's panning for a cabinet position in the Trump admin lol. he's prob one of those kids that got stuffed in a locker in middle school and has an enduring terror of bullies

[@stooge389]

Also even if something needs to be done about Tiktok, this bill is NOT it. It's the most Fascist bill I've ever seen proposed in modern American politics.

[@anuragsinha2013]

China is the new Soviet Empire, has all the hallmarks of Imperial Japan and China has the ambitions like Mongol Empire.

[@MrMosanu]

There is a choice between playing smart or having integrity. History shows that nobody's smart enough to play smart. Prioritizing a "situation" because of China's GDP over 2 ongoing wars may seem smart, but because of the lack of integrity for the unfairness of Hamas and Putin's actions, this will have long-term consequences. The US become one of the leaders on the World stage after WWI and the undisputed leader after WWII, because of its integrity. After the Second World War some countries, like the Soviet Union were only interested in gaining as much territory as possible. The US didn't gain any territory, although it could take a part of Japan under control. The US chose to help those defeated, which was laughable to the conservatives of those days. But this secured a long-term leadership role which came with some financial gains too.

[@coryzane.]

It’s past time for the US to stop trying to save the world and time to start trying to save ourselves!

[@MrJoel9679]

If the world was filled with football teams, who would you choose to coach the team to the Super Bowl? Eldridge or HR? I’d take HR, you don’t accept losses if you are going to be the best.

[@theskinnyfromphatty5811]

What I don't understand is why the US does not make formal arrangements with Taiwan to position US troops, naval forces on the island as in Okinawa and Korea - the US would not be breaking any laws (invitation by the Taiwanese) and would be supporting existing treaty arrangements in place (to ensure stability of the Taiwan Strait). This would be a much more significant deterrent to the Chinese than continuing to arm the Taiwanese with sub-standard equipment. The US already has a few troops/advisors on the island.

[@jimluebke3869]

"For 4% of our defense budget, the Ukrainians have wrecked the Russian standing army" Does "wrecked" mean that won't be able to take on Poland for a while? How about something smaller like the Baltics?

[@marza339]

Yes that's exactly what it means

[@timtrewyn453]

The way the US defense posture is presented, it would seem from an equipment standpoint that, like Russia had to do, the US has to look to its mothballed inventories to address equipment shortages. We would not be going into the next war with an ample supply of the latest equipment and munitions and have to rely on partners in the Pacific such as South Korea and Japan for supplemental production capability.

[@artfuldiggs2206]

Colby is thinking clearly and speaking honestly. He (1) thinks China could invade Taiwan at any time and (2) fears Biden is bluffing. I agree but my opinion is uninformed. Colby is extremely well informed. Worryingly, I did not hear Ferguson or McMaster disagree with him after he made these two crucial points.

[@PaulvonOberstein]

U.S. policy on Taiwan essentially is a bluff. Strategic ambiguity does not make sense when the regional balance of forces, and the absolute balance of stakes, favors China. China is waiting for the most optimal window of opportunity to take Taiwan. For China, it's only a matter of "when," hence why China is building up its nuclear forces. It's betting the U.S. is not willing to trade Los Angeles for Taipei and that is the key to deterring the U.S. from intervening in an attack on Taiwan.

[@b.alexanderjohnstone9774]

I know it gets old but 'Imagine if Trump ...' called for new elections anywhere.

[@robynjeucken3391]

He wouldn't do that. He hates elections, and couldn't care less about other countries. I sincerely hope that the women of the USA, especially in republican states, where lawmakers have obliterated their reproductive rights, are going to give Biden a far greater win than last time.

[@farinati]

Niall should back up his claim that the first amendment argument against the tiktok ban is ridiculous. Why? The slippery slope is not a fallacy.

[@dickjivas5996]

because it's not actually a ban on the platform or it's speech, simply that the software can no longer transmit it's data back to the ccp, which occurs if the company is chinese owned. it's a spyware issue that can be alleviated by being an american company. the root of the issue is the necessary relinquishment of all data from a company to china, when they change that, we can go back. ball is in their court

[@darwel007]

Ukraine is on its last legs, but we've got to keep a stiff upper lip. We will lose, but we will call it a win!

[@pinkbike0217]

❤

[@ioaalto]

Icebergs that were clearly visible, but which you did not the have time or space to avoid, were rammed straight on as standard practice in times of Titanic. U.S.A do not be asleep on the rudder.

[@PlanetFrosty]

Eldridge Colby does not strike me terrible well versed on either economics or reality of China’s crumbling or Russia’s subjugation to weak crumbling China. Many of what he suggests in terms of needs of hardware construction and procurement, but the discussion seems a bit chaotic.

[@marza339]

I guarantee Eldridge doesn't even know what an F-15 is

[@rg-cc5kg]

I disagree with the idea that there is sufficient buffering in Europe. Agreed, RuZZians can t reach the Rhine after taking Ukraine. But 20 millions ukrainian refugees could. And that would overwhelm both Poland and Germany.

[@max_skim-pontoon-cough]

If you want anyone to take you seriously, perhaps don’t parade yourself as an emotional fool by misspelling a major countries name like a angry teenager might do

[@joythought]

Exactly. And what values does that show. Reagan would again be rolling in his grave.

[@Sphere723]

There plenty of authoritarian parties in Europe ready to take over and ally themselves with Putin if given the chance. Look at Hungary and Slovakia. Czechia and Poland could easily go the same direction. The AFD in Germany would as well. It's very important that Putin clearly loses this war.

[@glennmitchell9107]

Would a war with China end once they occupy Taiwan? The U.S. didn't surrender once the Japanese occupied the Philippines and Wake Island. The war continued until Japan surrendered unconditionally. Why wouldn't that model work as a deterrent to Chinese aggression?

[@chriwa6830]

Elbridge is shockingly shortsighted, and whenever I listen or read his take on Ukraine/China I’m seriously puzzled why this isn’t obvious to himself as well. China is undauntedly much „heavier“ than Russia, but fairly stable at the time being. Russia in Ukraine however is about to become the smaller stone creating the landslide setting the heavy stones in motion.

[@yurona5155]

Indeed. What left me even more puzzled though is that some of his strategic analysis is just plain wrong in very obvious ways. Take, for example, the idea that it would be rational for China to materially support the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Putting all your major export markets at risk for the sole "benefit" of having a starved intermediary control your (otherwise exceptionally privileged) access to Ukrainian ressources is just wildly off - so much so, it would probably be the single-worst strategic blunder China could commit right now. Another weird one is the idea of scale being the primary downside of a Chinese blockade, when its delayed efficacy (and to some extent lack of specificity) should be much more of a concern with scale actually being one of its possible strengths.

[@MG-ye1hu]

I think the exact opposite is the case. Europe is economically in bad shape due to the war, Germany had negative growth in 2023, and is dragging down the western alliance. China is still growing robustly at 5% and India, another ally of Russia, even stronger. Russia's part in this alliance is not its economic power but cheap oil and gas which is highly beneficial to China and India. It is the fatal delusion of the west that it hasn't really realized this major shift in the balance of power. Mr Colby is absolutely right with his warnings.

[@Sphere723]

Yeah, I think its painfully obvious that if the Western alliance fails to support Ukraine through to victory, (which in theory should be an easy task given the economic disparity between the West and Russia) there will be zero chance of getting an alliance together to defend Taiwan.

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐

[@StereoSpace]

I think the USA can walk and chew gum at the same time. What we need is reprioritize spending to both support Ukraine and increase the size and power of the US military at the same time. One example of building out the US Navy is subcontract Japan and Korea to build frigates and destroyers for us while we continue to build them in the USA. We'll get 2-3 times more ships built each year. This isn't rocket science, it's simply making good decisions.

[@anneshay6788]

It’s a huge assumption he makes. First and foremost it’s a state of mind that we live in a world of scarcity. That assumption puts us all in a fear based mindset. No wonder he sees threats and danger everywhere.

[@bill5868]

Lots of good discussions. Maybe we the US should leverage defense product capabilities with other nations who could benefit from more employment and maybe already have some capabilities in place just need some funding to expand. Countries in southern regions, Asia, and even Europe. But the real need for Ukraine is sanctions enforcement, seizure of Russian assets, funding internal Russia dissent, provide Ukraine with munitions outdated along with outdated equipment in storage. President should in act the defense production act now to gear up to be the arsenal of democracy of the world. It is a pay now or pay late, we will one way or another.

[@julio5prado]

China today is like Japan in 1940, they have the military supremacy in the region but the lack the basic resources to feed their population, to cover their energy needs and supply chains. After a few months into the war they could implode. This doesn’t mean that we have to get ready but we still have a strong card to play.

[@ShangDaiNagaland]

Basic resources to feed their population??! 🤣😂😅 Oh my God what planet are you living bro . China🇨🇳 is the LARGEST ECONOMY by PPP in the world. China is a MANUFACTURING POWERHOUSE ✅. Grow up bro , you're instead feeded by your mainstream propaganda media 😅.

[@notlimey]

I got the 'likes' to 999! At last, my mark in history!

[@bsmithhammer]

A year ago, I disagreed with Colby, but I'm coming around to his perspective more and more. It's a hard, cold truth that we simply can't have significant force presence everywhere. And in an increasingly multi-polar world, there's no getting around the fact that our allies are going to have to step up more and 'cover' the regions closest to them more than they have been. Admittedly, that is now changing for the better, but it's obviously belated. Which points to another geopolitical fact - most countries aren't going to do something until the threat is staring them in the face, like it or not.

[@crazzzyron]

Sen Chuckles needs to go away

[@needmorecowbell6895]

I would disagree with the guest in that his hypothesis about why you don't draw down on military stocks assumes that you don't get anything in return. If, by supporting Ukraine, you take Russia off the table as a credible Chinese ally going though this Taiwan window, then actually, you've accomplished quite a bit. The Chinese cannot even feed their population or fuel their military without the assistance of Russia. If Ukraine exhausts the Russians to the point that getting involved in what would amount to a world war is suicide, the Chinese face serious logistical challenges in any sustained campaign.

[@user-yw4rx6kb3r]

There was an article written by a guy named David Axe in 2012 or 2013. He wrote that America can fight the whole world by itself and win.

[@MG-ye1hu]

This was probably true back then. But we don't live in this world anymore.

[@victorm3054]

I still fail to understand why Taiwan matters to us so much. Can't we just produce chips or whatever on our own? Can someone pls reference me to whoever can explain it properly

[@dickjivas5996]

it would take 10 years and several trillions to catch up to taiwan, both china and US are starting that endeavor, but it will be quite sometime

[@dickjivas5996]

taiwan also represents a world where the chinese are capitalists and democratic, and they are thriving, and thus proof that authoritarianism is not necessary, giving rise to fragmenting factions within west china

[@rustyyb8450]

🤣@14:17 "We thought the Afghans were going to hold out for longer than they actually did"..... Given the Afghan military had been trained to rely on airpower,,, all of the maintenance capability (foreign contractors) had been withdrawn. So, given the Afghan Airforce was counting down to closing time, Mr Elbridge Colby & company must not have thought the Afghan Airforce would be so busy throwing off Taliban. 🤣😂🤣That time of year was always the Taliban's busy season.

[@chuckcaswell2472]

Mr. Colby has all the presence of a high school junior overdosing on Ritalin. Still waiting for one complete sentence and one original thought instead of cloaking his comments as being in agreement with person x.