FOREX Trading Predictions with Facebook Prophet | Python Time Series Analysis

[@neurotrader888]

One trick worth trying. Fit the model on the recent prices. Then get the model predictions in-sample. Compare the current actual price with the model's in-sample prediction of the current price. The difference between the actual and predicted might be effective as a mean reversion indicator. I've used idea this with ARMA and Holt-Winters. I got better results doing that then using the future predictions from those models. Never used prophet, seasonality in market prices is usually pretty weak though.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hey thanks for sharing. Interesting idea, didn't think of it this way, it might be a good indicator, still have to find a way how to use it or to interpret it. ARMA family (SARIMAX...) are on my list when time and life will allow. Great channel by the way I liked your videos :) I will sub

[@yk-il6dn]

Didn't think I'd see the legendary neurotrader here

[@Tomydispik]

Would including indicator outputs from Pandas TA improve the predictions? Here Prophet is using a x/y dataset to predict future range, but would including things like Bollinger, Stochastic, and/or MACD data on the "x" side of the model produce a better fitting prediction?

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi, I have to look into prophet and see how it processes additional features. That being said, my answer is maybe using a smoother indicator like the moving average might help prophet since it eliminates the noise. And what I would be hoping for from prophet is to just detect the trend, if this is done correctly I guess it's a big help already.

[@SliverHell]

There was a paper that predicted S&P500's next day price decently by the previous day's price, the futures' price, and other technical indicators. But they decompose it using ICA, and selected the least noisy components.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi thank you for sharing, it's interesting do you have a link to the study? I would check it out.

[@Tokamak_9]

Please can you make a tutorial on how to crete an automatic Screener in Python that calculates the Pietrosky F-Score for different stocks?

[@CodeTradingCafe]

It's feasible but where do you get the specific financial data from?

[@adelkf00]

Hi, can you make a video about trading the economic calendar news, automated using python.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hey, it's possible but can you be more specific? do you have any particular strategy in mind?

[@yashraj1331]

by using the rnn and providing the recent business news source to system ,the rnn can scan weather it is a good news or bad and on the basis of technicals the system will predict to where the markets will hit from the news. just a idea

[@user-rp9iis1en6h]

My idea is, we can get the trend direction from this visualization.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Good to try, I haven't tried it this way.

[@abhishekjain3045]

Good video, if Prophet is good at predicting Seasonality then it should work good on stocks or sectors . because companies sales and profit are Seasonal according to their industry.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi, there might be some seasonality there but I am also wondering how much noise can prophet tolerate.

[@abhishekjain3045]

@@CodeTradingCafe sorry no idea , not a pro coder. I am a trader. but seasonality work good in stocks if used with technical analysis.

[@AnthonysTradingChannel]

This video was refreshing, I enjoyed it. Keep up the good work.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Thank you for your support

[@ManoelBTavares]

Outstanding video and work. Congratulations!!! At 9:42, where you first present the plot routine, there is a slight mistake where the parameter "yhatlow" should read "yhat" and, at same time, where it reads "yhat" it should read "yhatlow". Without fixing this it just plots funny. This mistake is also present in the code. But thank you for your work. Will subscribe.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hey, thank you for the heads up, you are right variables are switched.

[@algothmictrading1963]

How to create a python bot for binance UID copy trading?

[@CodeTradingCafe]

copy trading I am not sure is possible unless you get access to a particular account you need to copy. But for binance you can use their API just like I did using Oanda's in this video kzbin.info/www/bejne/jZTJfJSQgZmppqM

[@algothmictrading1963]

@@CodeTradingCafe It possible but I think not with python It possible to copy trade leaderboard UID and connect with API as well

[@berlyeduardoespinalovalle1865]

Nuevo seguidor. Excelentes videos.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Gracias! thank you :)

[@AstridTol-t9k]

There is a bug. You forgot the minus sign for the threshold value

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi thank you, can you be more precise where in the code and which threshold variable?

[@AstridTol-t9k]

​@@CodeTradingCafehi, for the diff_limit variable in the prophet_signal function. In case it returns 1

[@valueray]

Hello friend, im the one who propesed it. You may look into the following hyperparameter tunings: weekly_seasonality=X, daily_seasonality = Y, yearly_seasonality = Z whereas X, Y and Z are the Fourier Order as a number. Additionally you may want to set changepoints on the opening of USA Session. The most important change i did, was to define the chanepoints manually on the date the FED rises interest rates or something unusual happend

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hey thank you again for this. Interesting idea to set changepoints according to financial calendar, but this depends also on the type of the event and its effect on the price which can't be predicted somehow?

[@valueray]

@@CodeTradingCafe i coded a loop that went through several hundred stocks, changed changepoint in various ways and measured MAPE, and averaged the MAPE results. Same with every other hyperparameter. You can code it in 2-3 hours and let run over night. Maybe it helps. GL

[@alexandermartens192]

What do you mean exactly by change points? Can we connect somehow and talk i am super interested?

[@칠월이십삼일]

Good

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Thank you!

[@lance3401]

Hello good day, I would like to know if you can track a file CVS with Python well yes for sure, but I want to know if that is possible with the results of that file to do an indicator base only on entries thank you in advance if you can make a video will be great, I'm one of your followers as well I program mql4 mql5 and python my friend excellent videos keep it up.

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi thank you for sharing, I didn't understand what you mean by track a file CVS? can you please elaborate more?

[@ForexRS7]

how can i contact you i want us to talk

[@CodeTradingCafe]

Hi thank you, my email is in the about section of this channel.