Commercial Real Estate is Collapsing, Housing Soon to Follow!

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I have been forecasting that Commercial Real Estate would be collapsing and it will drag Housing DOWN with it, Commercial Real Estate is completing. All that fun we had when homes were appreciating 3-4% a month, we were congratulating ourselves at how smart we were...those days are over and the opposite will happen as home prices DECLINE 3-4%
I still am forecasting property prices to decline. I think Home Prices are not going to rise any further.
This is my warning to you!
This is just a signpost along the way confirming where we are in the Real Estate Cycle Completion. Fortunes are yet to be made.
If you would like to consult, contact West USA 602-942-4200 and ask for Michael Douville
Patience is now required. If you purchase now, you risk losing 30% or more that may take 5-10 years to recover.
However, if you are patient for the next 12-18 months, you might be able to have a Life Changing Opportunity.
I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication.
Schedule an appointment to review your situation.
Let's get ready to invest when the time is right. Contact me to schedule an appointment.
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[@vitalsigns6403]

Here in California inventory is extremely low and comp prices are going UP!

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. California is an amazing place of huge extremes. Statistically, you are probably correct. However, what area and what data are you referring to? San Francisco house prices have dropped significantly, the 8 counties of Northern California have declined as has employment, Los Angeles is up, San Diego is flat. The huge discrepancies of values in California from the pretty poor to the extravagantly Rich do distort the statistics. The Index known as the All-Transactions House Price Index of FRED is a good index, but not as good as the Median Price. The All Transaction is an INDEX! The data is "Estimated using sales prices and appraisal data." ESTIMATED and APPRAISAL DATA. However, each of us is an individual and have individual criteria for investing. If you feel the California Market is heading higher, rents are increasing, and tenants are of high quality and plentiful, then we have very divergent views. I am charged with protecting my clients Capital and earning a return on investment. At the moment, my discipline finds most markets in California uninvestable. Michael Douville

[@michaeldouville690]

@Notaslave1961 Thank you for the great comment. Yes, that has been the case for centuries. The Rich are those that can control assets that appreciate over time. Inflation, even "Benign" inflation of 2.58%, which is the cumulative inflations over the last 20 years will destroy unprotected purchasing power by over 66% in 20 years. Not so "Benign" Inflation will destroy fixed incomes, pensions, annuities, bank reserves, and the most vulnerable of our society living in the Welfare State will be devastated. I have been advocating rental real estate, even just 2 rentals, to mitigate some of the effects of runaway Government spending. There is a window coming to allocate Capital, but not yet. The Business and Real Estate Cycle need to complete first...then those that have been left behind can catch up! Michael Douville

[@johnrubino7604]

Nice report about trends in real estate. Miami has funny numbers with their real estate too. Phoenix job growth looks promising to its future but the BIG PROBLEM with investing in Arizona is the obvious voter fraud and rigged elections. Trump in 2020 and the last election with Hobbs winning after counting votes for over a week. Rule of law is most important for capital formation. Hope you fix the vote counting.

[@michaeldouville690]

Hi John. Great comment. I could not agree with you more. The belief in honest elections and fair and equal treatment by the courts is paramount to any society. There is no excuse for distorting the will of the people. The elected officials are charged with managing the unelected bureaucrats and working for the benefit of the citizens of their locality, their state, and of course our Nation. It seems out elected officials have demoted the welfare of the citizens of our country and elevated the concerns of everyone else above them!

[@Demopans5990]

There's the more fundamental problem in Arizona: Where is the water? Never mind drinking water, power plants require water to function, and unless there are very large investments in photovoltaics, which I do not see happening, I doubt AZ can provide the energy capacity needed for the growth they have been having. I think it should be obvious why AZ requires so much energy. Letting the Saudis pump unlimited groundwater isn't helping

[@michaeldouville690]

@@Demopans5990 Thank you for your comments. Yes, water always is a concern. Here is Phoenix, we are blessed with 2 watersheds that have never been in drought at the same time, even in pre-history according to researchers. Phoenix also has 6 man-made lakes for boating, fishing, and of course water reserves and power generation. They are miles and miles long. Phoenix also has the Palo Verde Nuclear Power plant. Phoenix also has a "Business Friendly" legislature actively encouraging manufacturing and distribution as well as IT Start-ups. I agree tough times are coming and no one will be immune, but some areas of the Nation will do better than others. There will be Inflation coming which means hedging and a RE Buy point is coming soon. Time to prepare. Michael Douville

[@davidanalyst671]

This is 3 minutes of content, and 17 minutes of Yappin.

[@AhrkFinTey]

god i hope so

[@bobcarpenter9218]

Here in Rhode Island and Massachussetts prices are still going up. Inventory has gone up only slightly. There are more choices from last year for sure. Last year there were only 500k houses but now there are some houses available in the 300k. I expect it will take another year before prices really soften here in this area.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Melody Wright's data indicated the same trend.... upper price homes were selling, and lower price were not. When the market for a product slows, price reductions are inevitable. The Cycle for RE is long and nothing happens quickly. However, I agree with you, the retracement will become more apparent moving forward. Michael Douville

[@steveosmonson6535]

Good job, great info. Thanks!

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. Everything changes and everything stays the same. The workforce that has enjoyed the explosion in new construction ramp their life styles up as their Income increases. The Cycle slows, then stops. Thousands of workers slow then stop their spending......the Cycle repeats! Michael Douville

[@vitalsigns6403]

Home prices are still going UP…no crash. The crash is only in transactions, not prices

[@syberspud]

That maybe true but you’d still be a fool to buy this late in the cycle.

[@mle3857]

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.