The factors affecting the Switch 2 reveal to release window

[@unclaimedbaggage539]

As someone who’s worked in finance - PE his whole career, your channel is the most in depth and curious channel I’ve seen that has actual substance. Even prominent channels like Arlo are completely ignorant and are baselessly speculative, while you bring real analysis. Not sure what you do for a day job but this is great work as always. Nintendo should give you a hire. I’ve enjoyed your videos greatly but this was so good I joined the Patreon, cheers!

[@nintendoforecast]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate it!

[@GabePlaysYT]

IMO, Nintendo doesn't have to try too hard to pitch the hybrid concept to audiences because we've been happily enjoying it for the past seven years. We know that this is going to be a very iterative successor. All people really want to know are the games and when it comes out. I think we really could be in store for a very sudden reveal and launch window.

[@Crafty_boy70]

I somewhat agree, but this suggestion of a 2-month window seems a bit too absurd.

[@GabePlaysYT]

@@Crafty_boy70 Yeah, I'm cool with a summer release

[@saladoc]

You have to think of the mainstream not just the hardcore audience, yes, you have to resell them the concept (if it is the case) again to people, and whatever new gimmick that it has, if you don't get the message right you'll get a wii u again.

[@shantaehalf-geniehero4318]

@@saladocexactly, many casuals won’t know the difference and assume the dock will be the console like the Wii U

[@miggle]

it’s so refreshing to see nintendo coverage from a brand strategy perspective rather than pure hype off what the next mario game will look like. please keep doing what you’re doing!!

[@cb-sy5qu]

you are legitimately the most underrated nintendo channel of all time. keep it up man this was very interesting!

[@EnigmaticGentleman]

I still think 2 months is short, but I would not be surprised if Nintendo realized that they basically don't need to generate hype since clickbait youtubers and Twitter will already do it.

[@Crafty_boy70]

That would depend on how accurate the clickbait is.

[@Myles_Wolfe]

Same with things like Super Bowl. The broadcasting reach for that in the US is huge. With how social media has changed I wouldn’t be surprised if that was their approach along with the showcase/launch title direct.

[@KDM-d8t]

Not everyone watches youtube though. These nintendo clickbaiters (not this channel) make the same video over and over again with barely any views so I doubt whatever they do or say makes any difference.

[@graalcloud]

I think ever since the Metroid Prime 4 debacle Nintendo is holding their cards closer to their chest and announcing things a lot closer to their release date.

[@Titin-oz6jh]

One question I wonder about is when comparing Switch and Switch 2 hype cycles, the Switch"s reveal in October has been basically replaced by the fact we mostly know what Switch 2 is about So effectively, the window between the Switch full deep-dive and its release would be similar to Switch 2's according to the rumors There is also the fact that one can argue the system is already getting plenty of publicity despite having never been showed That being said, Late-january/february reveal with an April release still feels safer. Another point to consider would be launch games but I assume a Mario Kart 9 has no need for a lengthy hype cycle window

[@andrewmcleod9993]

Great video as always, it is so much more instructive to view the historical behaviours of Nintendo, with the added benefit of contextualising it within Japanese societal behaviours, than trying to parse whether a particular leaker has had a track record of success

[@vlacroix]

The idea of a high-publicity/low-advertising launch makes a lot of sense, and I think it explains (in part) why the Switch's launch was as explosive as it was. That console launched alongside a new entry in a series that hadn't seen a new game in a long time, one which was highly hyped by a large audience of primarily hardcore gamers. That's exactly the kind of audience you want if you want publicity, I would imagine because hardcore gamers won't shut up about their favourite games. Assuming Nintendo wants to repeat history (and why wouldn't they?), they have one really obvious candidate for capturing the attention of their core audience: Metroid Prime 4. Get it in the hands of core gamers, let word of mouth take hold, then Nintendo will be in a great position to launch the next Mario Kart and 3D Mario - I'm getting déjà vu! Speaking of déjà vu, I think the next console presents an opportunity to take the evergreen games strategy on a whole other level. We know they have a tech demo of Breath of the Wild running on Switch 2 with no load times and improved performance - why not offer that as a free upgrade on the new console? Adding value to software without bumping the price would probably be a great way to sustain sales velocity, while encouraging more playtime on the new console. If Nintendo keeps up with putting out fresh and non-iterative sequels, then they would be unlikely to fear cannibalizing their own market.

[@pattersong6637]

Before watching video, first reaction: if the actual LAUNCH was going to be in this fiscal year they'd have indicated that to their shareholders with guidance of increased hardware sales in the final quarter of this FY. Nintendo can't just lie to their shareholders (they obviously can and do to their customers on occasion). This is why have been saying April is the earliest possible release even from a January reveal, and I'm more skeptical about April than I used to be (thinking late May/early June might be more likely now). Time to watch the video and see if you agree or if you've already refuted my points. :)

[@minecrafter3448]

They don’t technically have to say anything to investors. They only reported Nintendo switch forecasted sales, not hardware forecasted sales. Logic does dictate April makes sense, but everyone unanimously agrees in the rumor space the release is in March.

[@evanpereira3555]

If the launch is in March it would be less than a month in this fiscal year, so "increased hardware sales in the final quarter" is more a lie than the truth. Futhermore shareholders would be scares (very bad thing) if they nor the public don't know the hardware (and the closer we get to the final quarter the scarier they would be, especially after not seeing any news for christmas despite the high marketing value). The better strategy is to only tell investors that the next hardware would be presented this fiscal year (so no big money right here) thus sales for it is expected for the next (big money), the early March sales would only be a "bonus" from the future fiscal year. If shareholders have intel, I think it would be limited at "we Nintendo, will do something big for the next Mario day", because it gives expectations for the future (mostly a good thing for them).

[@work_days8745]

@@evanpereira3555 When will nintendo make money from the pre-orders? Even if it launches in April, I would think NIntendo would make switch 2 presale money within March!

[@evanpereira3555]

@work_days8745 that is a really good question, especially because console pre-order (unlike eShop) isn't directly made by Nintendo themselves but retailers, thus maybe it works like purchase of stock (and could so be registered as first day sales on report). Anyway a console launch between 1 and 3 millions sales first month (but last in this fiscal year) is more interesting for shareholders to be classified as next fiscal year project than as a last quarter project (imho).

[@pattersong6637]

I really like the point in the video about how Xenoblade Chronicles X's window on one end and Golden Week at the other forces a potential April release window to basically be April 10th-ish or not at all and not until June. April 10th feels like a reasonable best case scenario.

[@evermillcreek]

Very interesting research. I think the exceptions under these circumstances are that a lot of publicity is already being done, and probably Switch 2 doesn't need a lot of explaining, plus a highly likely 3D Mario at launch needs little introduction either. If Xenoblade X is enhanced for Switch 2 it would be a great part of the launch schedule even if it's closer than usual to another release - in this instance a system, which you would hope doesn't rely on the one big game. Here's a possible schedule I have in mind: - Prime 2 shadow drop at the game awards after a Prime 4 trailer, plus announce Prime 3 - Early Jan Switch 2 announcement - Donkey Kong 16th Jan - Prime 3 releases Feb - Switch 2 releases early March with 3D Mario - Xenoblade X (enhanced for Switch 2) 20th March - Mario Kart release in April - Prime 4 release in May (also enhanced) Plus early March would make for a healthy end to the year for the balance sheet considering all the outgoings

[@filibill]

that's a pretty good prediction, the only thing i disagree is the new mario kart releasing in april, i think they'll save the new mario kart for holidays (october/november), instead, april could have the release of pokemon legends z-a, if the rumors are anything to go by

[@evermillcreek]

@filibill that sounds reasonable, as long as there is some other local multiplayer game near release, which could just be a typical 'showcase' game equivalent to 1-2 Switch

[@filibill]

@@evermillcreek personally, i think we'll have a follow up to the nintendo switch sports as a launch title alongside the 3d mario

[@evermillcreek]

@filibill maybe, although it's not been super long since the last one, which will still work on it. A Mario Sports Mix remake might do the trick!

[@HaruVibes_]

Always had a hunch for a Jan reveal but March release would be bold.

[@filibill]

great video, also i think that an april release would make sense as well, i mean, furukawa said that the switch 2 would be announced until the end of this fiscal year (march 31, 2025) so it wouldn't be a good idea releasing it during this period

[@lilisaur]

There's also the matters of production. Nintendo already indicated plans to sell 12.5 million in year, and had got to around 5.5 million by end of September. This means 7 million to sale, and presumably would want units past March 31 to sell into 2025. Some of these may be stockpiled in preparation of the holiday season, but not all of them. Now add 6.5 million Switch 2s in the mix, with the consideration that you can't just flip a switch (pun intended) but have to wind-down Switch 1 and ramp-up Switch 2, which may reduce capacity by half for a few months. Nintendo's 2020-2021 proved they could manufacture up to about 2.4 million units a month, but changing over from Switch 1 to Switch 2 may knock them down to 1.5 or so. That's over 4 months of nothing but Switch 2, plus the need to still be making some Switch 1s. So even if they had started production of Switch 2 in October it makes a February release with 6.5 million units ready to go troublesome. Even early March seems high risk. Doable, but very little wiggle room to account for natural disasters, supply chain problems, or any other disruption. Nintendo usually isn't so cavalier in these matters and gives themselves ample padding. Then there's the games. A 6.5 million console launch should probably have at minimum four times as many physical cartridges in stores, or 26 million. If they want five or even six times as many game cartridges, that's as high as 39 million. Based on sales, my best guess on game production capacity is 18-20 million a month. They have time to get there, but it means publishers need to be getting the software code and orders into Nintendo perhaps by end of year for a March launch and certainly not far into January. While Nintendo and the few manufacturing partners like Hosiden can keep the lid on the hardware secret, when you expand the number of external parties to include many dozens of third-party developers and publishers, the chance of cat escaping bag before any official January reveal becomes sky high. (And the only rumor I've ever heard about game readiness put the date at March, not December or January.) I always thought the official reveal would be comfortably before third parties had to submit orders, but such a narrow reveal-to-release window puts that into question.

[@nintendoforecast]

Excellent thoughts.

[@LJAlex-]

Amazing you didn't even put "Nintendo" or "Switch" in the title. This video boutta get BURIED in the algorithm.

[@nintendoforecast]

It's admittedly not the strongest title but I don't think it needs 'Nintendo or Switch' necessarily. My logic is that the first 24 hours mostly needs to catch the eye of the channel's core audience and I reckon they probably see loads of stuff. Later on, I sometimes change titles to have a broader appeal. That said, I probably will change it.

[@LJAlex-]

It was kind of a joke/compliment

[@emiliongo007]

My only concern is that, Nintendo threw everything they had into the switch, a hole re released Wii u generation titles, a bunch of remasters, 2 Zeldas, the biggest smash yet (and maybe ever) the biggest mk, the long awaited Metroid dread, pikmin 4, all the xenoblades, 2 splatoons an so on; And even 3rd parties were crazy porting ps3 ps4 and even ps5 games onto the switch, what's left so that s2 will be as impactful as the biggest library in a Nintendo console in decades?

[@vianabdullah2837]

There are still quite a few games from the GameCube, Wii and 3DS that can be remastered. Nintendo itself and subsidiaries like Monolith Soft have been quietly expanding for the past few years. Plus, since a lot of current 3rd party releases are cross-gen, they can rely on those ports.

[@amadeus.7436]

Because of backwards compatibility the Switch successor will have an even larger library. All those games you mentioned + new games + probably GameCube and DS being added to NSO. Add more 3rd-party ports to that and Nintendo might have the biggest and most diverse library in gaming ever on one console

[@baked7423]

a 2 month window seems very short especially for a new console no matter how iterative. It's the basis for nintendo's foundation for the next several years so while they don't have to put much marketing behind it until it gets closer to launch, it would feel awkward if it basically came out so suddenly. it does make sense if you view it as the initial teaser trailer not being necessary this time around but even then i'd count that as when marketing started and not necessarily January. If we go by rumors, it is suppose to release in march but possibly slip out into april which makes more sense to me so i agree on that. April allows them to capitalize the upcoming japan holiday as well as spring break time for many students. It also gives the fiscal year a headstart and i'm thinking furakawa meant more than just the surface when he wasn't taking into account Switch successor impact for the FY forecast. I think H1 2025 is a lock though and there is no reason for it to be H2 2025 unless Nintendo specifically wants to poise it with a game and are confident in their stock. Better to get it out sooner than later

[@gamesdog9067]

Nintendo don’t need to spend a dime on advertising. I’ve already watched about 200 videos of Switch 2 rumours and there will be a billion more before it’s even announced. Mainstream newspapers are also giving their thoughts. It’s already being hyped and promoted, they don’t need to do anything else than get it in the shops.

[@nindieboy4194]

Honestly the best marketing they can do is to be silent at this time xD the rumors and "leaks" are marketing enough.

[@gamesdog9067]

@ Totally. Why do people see the ‘official’ announcement as the start of the marketing drive? Furukawa said there was a switch 2 coming 6 MONTHS ago. That’s when it began. They’re just letting us spread the word for them. A 3 month timeline from a Jan ‘announcement’ to a March/April release is entirely feasible. By January the entire world will know there’s a S2 on the way.

[@Redline1998766]

@gamesdog9067 Nintendo thinks economically, especially because of their current president, which means that Nintendo wants to sell their big amount of production in order not to run into unsold consoles because of storage costs and so on. They need to push it forward to new customers and not just for Nintendo hardcore fans. So, a big platform with a big audience and massive range for potential new customers is essential. Otherwise, Nintendo could cause a new Wii U 2 desaster, and this is what Nintendo is afraid of. On the other hand, Nintendo, with their current production and competitors pressure like Sony and investors' expectations and not to lose the trust

[@mronewheeler]

You've seen these videos about Switch 2 and so I have. But my casual gamer brother, for instance, has no idea about it. The vast majority of the target audience does not watch KZbin videos about Nintendo. Additional marketing is absolutely required. Never forget that KZbin and social media look very different for different people. We're all in our own little bubbles these days.

[@gamesdog9067]

@@mronewheeler this is true.

[@nathanmielke1977]

I want to know the cost of the hardware, because that makes the difference in the timing of release. When Nvidia released the 50 series cards, give it a month or two for final negotiations on the new chip pricing. You're looking at an April announce date with a September/October release with a solid launch day release with a dozen or two games. Nintendo has to get the most powerful hardware it can for the cheapest price to finalize the specs. Prices for the older gen chips settle when the new chip releases. And the new Switch 2 is going to be running 2023 chips best case.

[@Bigjim1027]

Love your videos! Why did people think it would be revealed this year? I’m really wondering if there was a compelling reason to believe that? Wouldn’t we just assume they’ll wait as long as they possibly can to reveal it unless there was a major reason not to?

[@pattersong6637]

The main reason is that mass production has to be underway for the systems to be ready for launch and it's either Nintendo reveals it themselves or some factory workers in China or Vietnam leak it. Nintendo likes to control their messaging and present products on their own terms. That was always the argument for an earlier reveal.

[@hododod246]

@@pattersong6637 Wasn't those images 3d printed? Even Nintendo did not bother to take them down.

[@Bigjim1027]

@@pattersong6637 I can see that point of view. It seems to me now that Nintendo would rather take action by punishing a supposed leaker instead of feeling pressured to officially reveal. That way potential leaks don’t determine when they reveal they’re console

[@Zveebo]

It was always based around the weird assumption that some leaked photos or something would mean Nintendo was desperate to launch before production started. Which made no sense - the mainstream doesn’t care about leaks like that, and companies like Apple have leaks of photos of their products ever year, and that does diminish the buzz of their launch one iota. Also lots of people assuming they had to follow the same playbook as the switch launch, forgetting that the Wii U was long since dead by now when the Switch was announced.

[@unconcernedsalad2]

also switch was revealed october year before so not like a great reason but a reason nonetheless

[@vianabdullah2837]

The big new hook of the console is still up in the air. I wonder if casual consumers will be sold by the Switch successor if it's marketed as the same thing, but more powerful.

[@shanesimons8987]

I think Feb reveal, June release, gut feeling

[@Crafty_boy70]

That sounds more reasonable.

[@Redline1998766]

While a February reveal with a June release sounds reasonable, it doesn’t align with the current market dynamics. Nintendo has 7 million units reportedly in production, and delaying an announcement would risk missing out on the unmatched global reach of the Video Game Awards, where hype could easily carry into a January showcase and beyond. Furthermore, storage costs for unsold units and increasing pressure from competitors like Sony make it strategically imperative for Nintendo to act now. A December teaser allows them to maintain momentum, maximize pre-orders, and secure their position in the industry.

[@shanesimons8987]

@ do we actually have evidence of 7 million units??

[@Myles_Wolfe]

This makes the most sense to me with Super Bowl, their usual February direct schedule, March seems too late with promotion unless they do a late fall release, which also doesn’t make sense imo as I’d imagine they’d want it to start as early as possible into the new fiscal year and have the entire holiday period after word of mouth has helped promote it in the summer. Without tariffs I think they’d would’ve considered May but they’ll probably want some extra time to determine pricing before making preorders available, and gives them an extra month to push production numbers.

[@Myles_Wolfe]

Also for Mario 40th anniversary I imagine they’ll want to reveal before Mario day so they can promote whatever they’re doing without restriction (part of why not march)

[@turtuy1138]

Nice video 😂 will watch after commenting

[@ryanrg8511]

Same!

[@Starius65]

Hang on if their switch pre-launch advertising spend was relatively low, how much did they spend on the switch superbowl ad?

[@nintendoforecast]

A lot for one advertisement I'd guess but not a lot compared to a global holiday marketing campaign.

[@nindieboy4194]

I think 2,5 months are way enough. I mean they already said they will consider a much shorter marketing cycle for the next console. And people say that Nintendo has no rush to release the switch 2 like wtf. The switch 2 should been out half a year ago. 💀 But still i don't believe this rumor.

[@olimar_09]

do you know where this was said? maybe it’s something i missed in the investor presentation but i would love to see the source on this either way

[@Dairunt1]

Any opinion about the holiday bundles? The Switch Lite didnt get a holiday deal, Im still convinced they want the Switch Lite to coexist with the Switch 2 during its early years.

[@nintendoforecast]

I agree but I haven't looked into the deals specifically.

[@davidtitanium22]

Watch as nintendo gonna reveal it on december just to troll everyone's expectations

[@Redline1998766]

Nintendo is under significant time pressure, and delaying their new console announcement would be a risky move for several reasons: 1. High production volume: Reports suggest that Nintendo is preparing 7 million units for launch. Any delay increases storage costs and risks unsold inventory. 2. Competitive landscape: Sony and other competitors are actively developing new products. If Nintendo doesn't act quickly, they risk losing market share and consumer attention. 3. Economic pressures: Investors expect clear strategies. A delayed announcement could create uncertainty and weaken shareholder confidence. 4. Declining Switch 1 sales: The current Switch has passed its sales peak. A new console is critical to rejuvenate sales and maintain market relevance. 5. Momentum of the VGAs: The Video Game Awards are one of the industry's largest stages, with global attention. It’s a once-a-year opportunity to maximize hype leading into the new year. 6. Clear positioning needed: The Switch 2 must be presented clearly as a new console to avoid confusion. Delaying the announcement could dilute the message. 7. Marketing requires time: A robust marketing strategy between announcement and launch is essential. The earlier Nintendo starts, the better they can build excitement and secure pre-orders. 8. High inventory risk: Delaying could result in unsold consoles, leading to financial losses. Nintendo must move fast to ensure the stock is sold efficiently. Conclusion: Nintendo cannot afford to wait. The competition is fierce, investor expectations are high, and the VGAs offer a unique platform for global impact. Delaying this announcement could cost Nintendo market share, momentum, and long-term profitability. Acting now is not just strategic-it’s essential.

[@hunterkeps9058]

Keep in mind the Switch 2 will release when it's ready, and they'll work the announcement around that. So hypothetically if it won't be ready til late 2025 (My prediction), then right now would be too early to announce the console, regardless of circumstance. By your logic, if the console was releasing early 2025, they would've already made the announcement, cause a lot of your points hit the nail on the head. In saying that, Nintendo's gonna want to focus it's holiday period on the Switch. It's just had a few great games releasing lately, and people are gonna buy those for Christmas. Nintendo should capitalise on that rather than taking attention away with a new console announcement

[@Redline1998766]

@hunterkeps9058 Announcing during the VGAs would provide a massive marketing boost without impacting holiday sales. By mid-December, most holiday purchases are finalized, so a teaser wouldn’t detract from ongoing sales but would instead generate excitement for what’s next. Additionally, VGAs are a global stage with millions of viewers-a perfect opportunity to set the tone for 2024 while ensuring the current Switch finishes its sales cycle strongly. Waiting until January risks missing out on momentum, and competitors like Sony won’t hesitate to capitalize on such hesitation. Delaying further could lead to inventory issues, loss of market share, and weaker investor confidence. The VGAs aren’t just an option; they’re the smartest move Nintendo can make right now. Furthermore, Nintendo has increasingly moved away from traditional announcement timelines. Their unpredictability has become a part of their strategy

[@hunterkeps9058]

@@Redline1998766 True, Nintendo's predictability's made it hard to... Well, predict. But I'm banking that they'll announce Metroid Prime 4 at the VGA this year, since mainly video games get announced there and it'd be the perfect time to show off more of a highly anticipated game. I doubt they'd announce a new console at the VGAs on the precident they haven't done it before, but as you said, they're unpredictable and can do anything. I'm sticking with a later announcement/release namely because we've kept predicting the console would be announced 'this month' and 'next month', and we've constantly been wrong. I reckon it'll get announced Feb/March, and I don't think it'd be a terrible move financially since having a proper 6 month hype-cycle would generate its own momentum. Just speculation on my part, none of the super in depth research you guys have done

[@malo932]

Revealed: march Released: june

[@minecrafter3448]

March reveal is highly doubtful. You can’t reveal a console during a marketing campaign, or around Mario day. It would have to be very early March to not drown out either of these. January is by far the most likely, it dodges everything. Perhaps mid January.

[@malo932]

Come back to this comment in march

[@laitha2550]

I actually think launching around Xenoblade X is fine. It’s a somewhat more low profile game but on top of that they could use it in advertising to show how the switch 2 runs switch games way better too given how Xenoblade games often run on switch

[@continental_consumer]

it should be announced february then released june, then on marios 40th anniversary they can reveal some kick ass mario games

[@hododod246]

- March reveal a week or so before fiscal year end. - During E3 season big event. - Early fall/Late summer release to be ready for shopping season. Nintendo wants to delay this as much as possible. I think at this point this should have been clear to everyone.

[@Etienne.6329]

As much as I want you to be wrong… it is true Nintendo has no reason to rush at all.

[@MarioSonicBee]

@@Etienne.6329except for the fact the switch continues to decline steadily in sales.

[@Redline1998766]

​@@Etienne.6329Nintendo is undeniably under time pressure to announce their next console, and here’s why: The aging hardware of the current Switch is becoming increasingly evident, while competitors like Sony and Microsoft are aggressively moving forward with new innovations. With 7 million units reportedly being prepared for launch, Nintendo faces mounting storage costs and risks if they fail to generate sufficient hype and pre-orders early on. Delaying the announcement beyond December means missing out on the immense global visibility of the VGAs, which could result in 20-30% less reach compared to a January standalone event. Additionally, consumer attention is finite. If Nintendo waits too long, it risks losing momentum as other platforms take center stage. A teaser now would keep the conversation around Nintendo alive through the holiday season, while a full showcase in January would build on that momentum. Without these steps, they risk lower initial sales, frustrated investors, and a diminishing market share. Time is ticking, and failing to act now could be a costly mistake.

[@DontKnowDontCare6.9]

What E3? Theres no more E3.

[@blazie42069]

April/March release isn't happening unless the console gets revealed next month which it could

[@B0ssguy]

if they have the units i honestly believe switch 2 will outsell the wiiu in a month. nintendo is in a totally different place than they were after the wii no matter how similar this new system is to switch

[@Blerwerler]

With 1 new spinoff pokemon game next year, and a speculated scheduled duo of mainline titles in 2026, the next console could be late spring 2027. Ultimately it won’t matter, as there won’t be any games for the thing til close to 2030.

[@RiqMoran]

ive been hoping for a march release for a few months now. Not really a fan of putting it off till after September.

[@kukri52231]

March reveal, November release

[@faerierose84]

January reveal, Golden Week release.

[@DontKnowDontCare6.9]

2015: Switch reveal 2017: Switch release

[@amadeus.7436]

​@@DontKnowDontCare6.9 The switch was not revealed in 2015 lmao

[@MrMartDK]

I really doubt a March, even April release, as many studios still don't have development kits for Switch 2. I personally predict May 30th release date, with a reveal in late January and a big console showcase event in March.

[@corey2232]

I think there's a 0% chance Nintendo launches a new console within 2 months of announcing it. This is their recent history, with the GC having the fastest reveal-to-launch: N64 - Revealed in Nov. 1995, launched in June 1996 in Japan (little over 7 months) GameCube - Revealed in August 2000, but then shown publicly at E3 2001 & launched September 2001 in Japan (4 months) Wii - Revealed in May 2006 at E3, then launched in Nov. 2006, first in North America (6 months) Wii U - Revealed in June 2011 at E3, launched November 2012, first in North America (16 months). Switch - Revealed in October 2016, launched in March 2017 (5 months) So going by past launches, if the Switch 2 was revealed in January, it could be 4 - 7 months afterwards before it launches.

[@nintendoforecast]

That's always been my view but I guess if you include revisions, the Lite and the Oled both had under 3 months reveal to release. I agree it's highly unlikely - just not sure it's 0%.

[@LKBoots15]

Google, this morning: "UNESCO survey reveals 2/3 of digital content creators do not fact check." Forecaster, thanks an immense bit for being responsible and a beacon. All the best to you and the rest of the 1/3 minority of content creators who *do* research and fact check. I don't care if that stated 2/3 of digital content creators create for a completely different genre than you are creating for. Thank you for your accountability.

[@nintendoforecast]

Thanks - I appreciate it. I think the "accountability" is the key bit. It is tricky - sometimes there are assumptions you don't think to check and of course even official information can prove problematic (e.g. the "replication crisis" in academic papers). There are occasional videos of mine where you'll find pinned comments with clarifications/addendums, there have been a couple where I've made cuts post-launch and one where I've pulled the video; there are also topics I seldom or only very tentatively venture into because I don't feel I can tackle them with authority (I rarely ever talk about tech details or non-Nintendo games, for example, and will usually caveat any discussions accordingly). I never would claim that I get everything right all the time but hopefully by sticking as much as possible to primary sources (Nintendo statements, academic research, published data) and being responsive to the great feedback in the comments section, the channel . But I view it as a process rather than a destination.

[@LKBoots15]

@nintendoforecast Humility! That's also what makes you so great. The fact that you hold yourself to that standard is what makes you a cut above the other channels that cover similar content and discussion. Thank you for your responsible caliber, and best wishes to you!

[@therealjaystone2344]

In reality, we won’t hear the super switch unveil until March.

[@Dionaea_floridensis]

I just don't buy it. March announcement/September release is still my bet

[@kaka8635]

THIS VIDEO IS WAY TO LONG

[@zachariah74]

Do you have no attention span