Meteorological Discussion: Classic Cold-Core Tornado Event in Iowa - January 16, 2023

[@hawkinzzz]

Wow you are quick with these😂

[@jaredpatterson1701]

He was ready for this one cause he called it for 3 days!

[@garretts.2003]

Thanks for everything you do!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Wow, thank you so much!! That really means a lot; can't thank you enough for your support!

[@garretts.2003]

@@ConvectiveChronicles No thank you! You're an expert at your craft and the way you break down complicated subjects makes it approachable for novices like me. Your skew-t/hodograph series is absolutely unmatched on KZbin and I've had a blast following along with all these outbreaks this year. I've learned so much and can't wait for this upcoming spring. I hope you're able to get out and catch some tornados! Happy trails!

[@garretts.2003]

Another textbook cold core event for Iowa. Judging by this last year, Iowa seems to be the tornado alley of cold core events. Thank you Trey! I've been loving all the breakdowns lately and I'm really looking forward to surface analysis series. This winter sure has been keeping you busy!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much! It has definitely been a busy winter!

[@garretts.2003]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Have you ever thought of making a Patreon? Your content has been helping me a ton and I'd love to support you anyway I can.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@garretts.2003 I really appreciate that! I have thought about making a Patreon before, and I've had some folks ask about it. I may end up making one at some point. For now, I do have Super Thanks turned on; there should be a button underneath each video where you can contribute.

[@garretts.2003]

Awesome thanks Trey.

[@moldtechgustafson]

DEC 15TH 2021 WAS THE CLASSIC LATE SEASON NORTHERN PLAINS TORNADO OUTBREAK EVER 70S IN IOWA AND 70 SE MN

[@llla_german_ewoklll6413]

Saw this one from my house. It was like the whole wall cloud dropped to the horizon.

[@MrJsauce63]

i love your videos bro. you are so good at explaining these events in detail.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; I appreciate that!

[@MrJsauce63]

pretty crazy year so far, and models showing even more concerning storms occurring that could bring tornadoes. i hope im wrong about this, but judging by the data from years before and the forecast la nina dissipating this spring, i really feel like 2023 is gonna be a year that will be remembered from its tornadoes, like 2011. probably wont be nearly as bad as 2011, but i really think this year will be bad.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how things play out.

[@progenitor_amborella]

Well... that was my first time in a HIGH.

[@StrmchsrHunterF]

Really great to be able to look back now and see the meteorology behind it while I was busy out chasing this tornado. Something that I thought was interesting that I wanted to mention here, when I was right next to the mesocyclone in the inflow I never found temperatures in the mid upper '50s. When the storm was north of Williamsburg and the wedge-like tornado lifted I only found temps maybe 50 to 52 as the tornado finished which was really cold in my opinion but yet it was still able to produce that second tornado that I saw not too long after. Maybe that's part of the reason why the tornado lifted is it experienced those mid to upper 50s and then occluded when in the lower temps/dews. Really a Frankenstein-like Storm that looked like it was a supercell out in the plains with 3000 sbcape. Love the analysis man, killing it!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Hunter! Awesome job yesterday. I suspect the cold temps you were feeling were a result of the storm being literally right on or just barely on the cool side of the warm front. If you look at the 19z surface map at 2:30, you can see the warm front is right there in SE IA, right where that storm was. Must’ve tracked right on the front and then dissipated when it crossed it.

[@caitlyn5076]

Wow and we had another cold core setup this year on the 16th in Iowa too 😮

[@aaronjones1469]

Awesome👍🙂 video. This was a very rare event for Iowa especially in the month of January. Great job explaining the process of its formation. This is one reason why I like watching your content, you explain things very clearly.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Always appreciate your support!

[@aaronjones1469]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Your welcome.

[@thebroderickhoward]

Typical Iowa Moment. Always getting surprising weather lol

[@Cdunlapweather]

Thanks for the video you never fail

[@flippinjigzncatchinpigz8902]

let me just say thank you for your content… we deserving of credit on your breakdown analysis! bad ass content🤙🏼

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s my pleasure; thanks so much!

[@moldtechgustafson]

THAT VISIBLE SATELITE SHOWED THE SPIN IN THAT CYCLONIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE CLEARING SPOT WHERE THE SUN WAS HEATING IT WAS A GREAT WRAP AROUND COMMA SHAPED LOW PRESSURE

[@fluwliss8312]

Doing my hand analyses last night in preparation for today definitely had me doubting the moist advection… the trough structure certainly was impressive! it was already stacked pretty much at 00z last night. Very fun forecast!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Definitely an interesting forecast! I too wasn’t sure the moisture would make it, but cold core setups don’t need much!

[@DanRoss-sg6yq]

Thank you for creating all these videos - great information and insight. I chased this setup, but positioned just a little too far northeast and missed this tornado by minutes!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Hey, it happens…plenty of good setups to come this year.

[@meghanhause9435]

I saw this form on Vince Waelti's live stream and he was the called it in and got the storm warned.

[@brandonwilliam2618]

That storm was beautiful i checked the radar and when I saw the confirmed tornado i watched Vince’s stream. I hope to do some chasing this year around the stl area. I just hope we get something, last year was not great for severe weather in the stl area.

[@EverydayLJnz]

That was quick! Cheers- I really do worry about you guys in America, the amount of outbreaks in January is pretty crazy- is this more than normal or is it just that I started following outbreaks?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s not unusual to see active fall/winters stretches, but this has been unusually active, at least with regard to the number of significant events. We’ll see how that bodes for spring.

[@NeonBeeCat]

@@ConvectiveChronicles i wonder if the spring will be relatively tame this year again, well see when we gst there

[@jakobh6257]

More great work! 🌪🌪👀👀

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@matthewgraber6930]

Is it possible to do a case study of the Plainfield, IL F5 from August 1990? Idk if there’s enough about it but it was a bit out of season and pretty far north for a F5 tornado. Interesting case

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s definitely on my list! Only tough thing about the older events is some holes in the data archive, but this tornado is notable enough where I’d be able to find enough to create a video.

[@matthewgraber6930]

@@ConvectiveChronicles gotcha. I’ve lived in the Chicago area my whole life, even studying meteorology at Purdue (B.S.) and Illinois (M.S. in progress) and it’s definitely talked about in Chicago history quite often. Kinda just snuck up on everyone

[@kelley1721]

in ames iowa you could see anvil and overshootind top around 12:30 pm

[@kelley1721]

last dec 62 tornadoes in one night. it shows that while frequency happens during la nina intensity strengthens during la nada

[@windwatcher11]

Well done! Great presentation, and so quick. I'll never forget this set up. Glad we didn't get a full ED from it.😅

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Looks like this tornado did some minor damage, but it's always good when a tornado event occurs without casualties.

[@GenericPast]

Would the dew points being in the 30s in northern Missouri, but temps still in the low 60s, have also created a dry line advancing into Iowa?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

In this case, that wouldn't necessarily be the dryline, that would be the cold front. Sometime cold fronts can have dryline characteristics (i.e. drier air behind it, more moist air ahead of it).

[@kelley1721]

@@ConvectiveChronicles cold core tornadoes dont need dry lines per se.... cold air is more dense and therefore can get pulled in easier and at a faster rate look up leigh orf. tim samaras helped him a lot with research and the math can get complicated but he makes things easy to understand

[@kelley1721]

cold core tornadic conditions is what pulled in the winterset iowa ef4 last march

[@lifeintornadoalley]

I hope one day you join our SoT community! 99% chasers, history buffs on tornado history, also operators of tornadoarchive. Anyone may use tornado archive for history of most all recorded tornadoes. Huge project that's been expanding

[@tornadoclips2022]

Wow! I was watching reeds stream while this happened

[@meghanhause9435]

Reed was just watching the RADAR, it was Vince Waelti that saw it and called it in.

[@tornadoclips2022]

@@meghanhause9435 yep I know

[@extremestormspotterdavidS]

Amazing Video! I will watch your other video on cold-core tornado environment. what do you use to draw on your screen in the video? I have a MacBook Pro.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I use a Wacom Intuos Tablet and a Mac app called Presentify.

[@moldtechgustafson]

LOOK AT SW IOWA LAST YR MARCH 5TH A EF-4 TORNADO!

[@kelley1721]

i dont think you can determine iowa just on cold core events. look at parkersburg or jordan ef5 events

[@harryparsons2750]

A tornado and another funnel cloud?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The storm produced a large tornado near Williamsburg and then a brief one near Cedar Rapids.

[@jaredpatterson1701]

Wish I could see one like this out in the open 😪

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

You will! The day will come, just takes patience!

[@rektspresso7288]

I did go out chasing but didn't make it in time before the storm weakened :/ it's January so I can't complain though

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Hey, it happens! Plenty of time left in the year.

[@kelley1721]

do you think weakening la nina plays into this. la nada is on the verge?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Not really for this particular, singular event. La Nina is weakening though.

[@kelley1721]

@@ConvectiveChronicles but does a neutral phase maybe have effect on bigger tornadoes

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@kelley1721 Not enough research to say for sure; the linkage is very weak at this point.

[@samde3432]

Do you think 2023 will be more active for severe weather compared to last year

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

We'll see. Some early signs are pointing to an active season, but it's just too early to tell.

[@kelley1721]

@@ConvectiveChronicles yes.... look at memorable ef 5 events and they can be contributed to la nada events yet theres very little scientific research behind it that is why i am chasing this year

[@moldtechgustafson]

NOT A LOW TOP SUPERCELL THAT CELL WAS TALL

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The storm was only about 30k ft tall, which is much shorter than a typical supercell (50-60k ft tall).

[@moldtechgustafson]

NO WAY IT WAS TALLER I GOT THAT RADAR SCOPE IMAGES AND I KNOW SUPERCELLS BREAK 60 TO 70,000 FT

[@moldtechgustafson]

GARBAGE STORM CELLS ARE 30,000 FT YELLOW ORANGE ON RADAR SCOPE, SUPERCELL LAST MONAY HAD SOME PINK COLORS IN IT

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s not true. Supercells in environments of limited instability, like this one, can be 20k-30k feet tall. The intensity of the reflectivity has nothing to do with how tall the storm is.

[@kelley1721]

@@ConvectiveChronicles reflectivity can be subjective as well remember while radar shoots out in layers radar can be off... thats why spotters are important bc radars can actually be off by 1-2 miles. the NWS will explain that in spotter training courses

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

This is why I love anything and everything weather. It may seem like it is just weather to some, but to weather junkies it's a plethora of amazement lol. And this system is another reason people should always take weather seriously.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

So true!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Question. Is it just me, or does the low heights of these storms (20,000' - 30,000') make the base of these storms look lower also? Reason I ask is that visual of that tornadic storm's base looks lower.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@MetallicAAlabamA I wouldn't say the height of the storm and the height of the cloud base are related; however, I think the reason these bases were so low was because we had really small temperature-dew point spreads. For example, Ottumwa was 57/52, giving us a 5 degree spread (probably slightly less to the north where the storm actually was). That's going to result in some low storm bases. I also think that, as a result, even though the tornado was a pretty large one, it was probably pretty weak and only looked like a wedge because the cloud bases were so low.

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks! Makes sense now lol.