Good on Paper, Looming Disaster in Reality - The Remains of Russia's Soviet Arsenal

[@CovertCabal]

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[@kellscorner1130]

Your sponsor is a known scam. Someone sent in lizard DNA and was told they are Jewish.

[@romanstingler435]

Commander Cabal 🎖🪖

[@utiz4321]

Complete BS. Ask the Department of Defense. They will tell you russia shaving zero issue replacing their equipment.

[@dzzope]

@@utiz4321 Then where is it all? Why are we still seeing old stuff previously dissused being fixed up and shipped out if there are no problems replacing the losses?

[@neillthompson2]

Can you begin doing videos for other countries like China, NK, Iran etc. NK ones especially could be interesting if they send more equipment to Russia other than shells.

[@memeityy]

The sheer number of destroyed vehicles is insane.

[@u2beuser714]

On both sides yes

[@BlutoandCo]

​@@u2beuser714more so on the russian side They started off with thousands more

[@edwardpayne8962]

How many lives lost vs sq km gained?

[@yv3009]

​@@edwardpayne8962works in both directions unfortunately...

[@cm275]

Makes you wonder if the pendulum might swing back in favor of simpler and cheaper AFVs that can be built in large numbers instead of massively heavy and expensive vehicles we’ve been seeing the past 30 years. No one can mass produce armor anymore it seems and large scale war devours everything at a ludicrous pace.

[@williamlloyd3769]

It’ll be interesting, after the war is over, to compare your teams numbers with US DoD estimates when declassified

[@HaxxorElite]

He is more accurate

[@Bob-t8l]

You believe what the Department of Defence tells you?. Bro you are lost

[@Smonkey66]

@@Bob-t8l Go put your tin foil hat back on 🤦‍♂

[@andrew30m]

Wasn’t the international estimate 13,000 with a questionable quality

[@LavitosExodius]

It will be but his is probably more accurate I doubt the DoD provides accurate numbers to the public more ballpark level.

[@gOtze1337]

is it finally happening, the End of the Soviet Cold War Arsenal?

[@sircatangry5864]

Probably.

[@Ianmundo]

it’s effectively already happened. What is left all requires extensive refurbishment and upgrades to have any relevance on the modern battlefield.

[@christianweibrecht6555]

@@Ianmundo don't underestimate the T72M

[@christianweibrecht6555]

I imagine that Russia will need to sell many of its remaining war machines to earn revenue

[@patwilson2546]

In 2023 everybody was saying "don't worry, even at this loss rate Russia has a few years of reserves". Well, we're a couple of years later and the loss rate has accelerated. We all know that there is no "last tank". The Russians are still making them and there will still be ever more desperate attempts to cannibalize what's left to create a whole tank. However, eventually, there will not be enough. It seems like things are already getting to that point.

[@user-gs6bc4kz2x]

These losses are insane. 3/4 of their inventory gone in 3 years, gaining some 10% of Ukraine. And not counting the huge initial gains, it looks even worse.

[@thearpox7873]

What I don't understand, is the people talking about how Russia'll threaten Nato in five years if there's a ceasefire. Like... with what?

[@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5]

@@thearpox7873 If the war stops now they'll have enough to take over Baltics and create some problems for Finland. In five years they could produce another thousand of tanks and then they can create problems for Poland

[@cardinalpawn6467]

@@thearpox7873 rebuild their military duh? Its really not that hard and 5 years is a lot of time

[@somerandomboibackup6086]

@@thearpox7873 brainrot. Gerasimov doctrine

[@danilapolesciuk4316]

​@@thearpox7873 alot of Pro-Russians say that Russia is making more armoured vehicles than they're losing but i kinda find that hard to believe especially since they never give any sources or how much apart from just saying that

[@vic5015]

It took the USSR nearly 50 years to build up this stockpile and less than 3 for Russia to deplete most of it.

[@robert100xx]

Ukraine depleting

[@stsk1061]

Most tanks are T-72s and T-80s. Considering that they were only built for 20 years before the Soviet Union collapsed, your numbers don't check out.

[@davidanalyst671]

one half to one third. And the majority of Russian army personnell are in between Moscow and NATO for obvious reasons.

[@rolletroll2338]

​@@davidanalyst671. No. Russia is depleting his bases near Finland. For obvious reasons.

[@yourstruly4817]

​@@stsk1061 T-62 losses are increasing because there are fewer and fewer newer tanks left

[@brettbenson7690]

I think this is a lesson we need to learn for our own boneyards. The vehicles need to be classified by reparability and would be better stored with hulls, turrets, engines, and electronics separated. It's surprisingly fast putting them back together and they differ in ideal storage conditions. And, given how detailed this channel gets with OSINT, we might consider putting a piece of sheet metal over them.

[@jeffreyharris3440]

I know absolutely nothing about military hardware/repairing/long term storage, but this makes a heck of a lot of sense to me. Very good comment.

[@firesb7791]

Fortunately the American boneyards are atleast in the desert, and they atleast have tarps The Russians genuinely just leave stuff outside in the rain and snow for 30-40 years with basically zero upkeep

[@zimzim7]

The US stores these in the desert where they are dry year round

[@neurofiedyamato8763]

US does have different levels of storage. But it is the other way around. They put specific vehicles into categories and are maintained to a specific standard as opposed to checking what level each vehicle they are. Well they do check to make sure it is up to requirement, but ideally, they know each equipment is kept to what level of maintenance. Generally, things that they want to reactivate quickly are maintained better obviously and are given a specific category that dictates the procedures. This goes down the list until old stuff that is slated for disposal

[@dchiznit209]

And it’s crazy that the stuff Ukraine is getting were equipment due for disposal.

[@callips9550]

Still a big fan of this channel for years and i really appreciate that you specialized on satellite images to give us a objective view on the current Situation greetings from Stuttgart DE

[@gregoryfilin8040]

Its not objective. It's open source speculation. But the real numbers are higher. And Covert Cabal is assuming that this is the exact same Army of 2022. Which is far from reality. As a Podcaster has said, your formula may be right, but you put shit in, you get shit out.

[@williamrizzo8574]

Working on my car in the rain all depressed and I see a new Covert drop and verbally shout "yeeeeaaay"

[@HaxxorElite]

U good homie?

[@WestermanT.]

You that much of a sad case you need to put it in a comment.

[@03056932]

​@@WestermanT.The fact you dunk on people online or use that weird social construct 'sad case' tells me you worry far too much about what people think of you and project that on others. Get happy.

[@WestermanT.]

@ dunk on people, you sure you’re old enough to be on here.

[@03056932]

@WestermanT. Yeah, check my join date kid. Too easy.

[@moongod424]

7:17 Tree-90M, Tree-90M, Tree-90M. T-90M with a tree on it.

[@elkrumb9159]

That’s a T-90M lol

[@kirkwilson5905]

The tree is an iron workers thing that means the structure is complete. Or in other words just bolt-on finish out comes after the tree.

[@moongod424]

@@elkrumb9159 That's what other comments were saying, my b. I'm not familiar with the distinctions between the T-90M and T-72 hull, how can you tell the difference?

[@elkrumb9159]

@ No T-72 has that type of front plate, which has Relikt, only T-90Ms and T-80BVMs do, but you’re not entirely wrong, T-90s are basically just T-72s with a redesigned turret

[@the0ne809]

It is okay, folks. The T-14 is coming out any day.

[@TheGreatWhiteScout]

You know what tickles me the most about this as an old Cold Warrior (US Army, years of service - 1982-2004)? This is likely a more accurate status of vehicles than Vladimir Putin or any of his deputies are receiving from the Russian military. Truthful or accurate reporting has NEVER been a highlight of the Red Army or the current Russian military, and the idea that the culture of Vranyo has been solved since 2022 is beyond wishful thinking and into purest form of self-deluding fantasy. Keep up the good work. It is much appreciated.

[@ashleygoggs5679]

they are probably telling putin they have stockpiles of 10000 and not even reporting on the total losses due to cannibalism and just out right lost to weathering. Makes you wonder if putin knew the actual details would he still continue or just accept hes been lied to and fighting a war he probably isnt going to win at this current rate.

[@jeffbenton6183]

This reminds me of a story from declassified satellite reconnaissance from the Cold War. US Intelligence spotted these utterly massive factories for building tanks. Analysts concluded that if we had factories this big, we would produce X amount of tanks over a period of time - a gargantuan number. When it came time for post-Cold War Treaty making, we held to that number. When the people who managed those factories told our negotiators that the real number was much less, they insisted the managers were lying. Finally, after a bunch of back-and-forth, they said, "Look, these aren't the numbers we give to Moscow, these are the *real* numbers." It turned out that the factories were so huge because they *needed* to be because of how much less efficient they were compared to ours. Thanks to Vrayno, even the Kremlin never realized how many tanks they were receiving.

[@chriswhite3692]

@@jeffbenton6183 Yea typical Communist lies. Reminds me of Chernobyl. It happened because one tier of government kept the other one in the dark and a whole *other* tier lied to make themselves look productive. Like he said- you lie and lie but eventually the debt you owe to the truth has to be paid. We are seeing that in this war with the status of these vehicles.

[@gregoryfilin8040]

I get what you're saying, but i have family fighting for Russia and Ukraine. And ill be blunt, the Russian Army of 2024 has almost nothing in common with the post Red Army of 2022. Vranyo has all but vanished, the FSB regularly jails, demotes, and in some cases, outright disappears people for lying, theft, or insubordination. In2022, my cousins saw people stealing whole rifles. On December 2nd, my cousin saw a guy get his leg broken for trying to steal a rifle magazine. One thing America never understood is that Russia's ability to adapt is second to none. That has always been the winning route.

[@williambowes-xt2sm]

your damn right the same thing happened during the cold war it was either gorbachev or kruschev who wanted an economic report that said how things were he got back "everything is fine" so he sent his spies into the cia to find out what they know about russias economy, turns out they knew more than the acutal people in russia, and could give an accurate report!

[@desdichado92]

One thing that supports your theory that they're low on good condition hulls is the prevalence of light infantry assaults supported by unarmored vehicles that started early in 2024. The Russians must have realized some time ago that their stocks of easily-refurbished tanks are going to disappear around the beginning of 2025.

[@03056932]

You mean end of 2025, at the absolute earliest

[@KasumiRINA]

North Koreans are cheaper than tanks, knowing South Korea blocks all weapon deliveries to Ukraine and expects us to fight THEIR, KOREAN WAR, with rocks.

[@hedgehog3180]

I think that's also due to logistics issues, even if Russia has the vehicles they struggle to deliver them to the front line so other vehicles get used out of necessity.

[@03056932]

@@desdichado92 or they realised the armour was ineffective in such assaults. As has been the theme of this war.

[@larsrons7937]

- "Do you want to hear a joke, about russia's armour reserves?" - "No tanks!"

[@umpota]

Has nobody noticed the tree growing out of the tank?!

[@Clockworkorangecassidy]

Tree-72

[@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5]

It's there to hide the hole in the wall or the hole in the floor while managers and reporters from Moscow were there

[@andrewmcalister3462]

@@ClockworkorangecassidyPriceless. 😂😂😂

[@kahlzun]

i assume it was some kind of xmas video or something?

[@IntyMichael]

@@kahlzun it’s probably a tradition for completing a body of the tank. In Germany a tree is put for a few days on the top of a new house when the roof is ready to make.

[@walterengler5709]

What was not mentioned is the break down risks of the "refurbished" tanks. Sure you can take a take out of storage, clean it up, fix the bad parts, get it running again. But that's going to be far more likely to have breakdowns in combat compared to a regularly maintained tank. We keep seeing videos of tanks being abandoned as they are breaking down more. And when the tanks break down more this makes planning offensive actions even more difficult. At some point it make no sense to try and repair a tank in storage as even if restored, the risk of failure in battle gets too high.

[@Delgwah]

Especially those that filled with water and then froze.

[@dirkbroekaert3346]

Right, they don't have time nor manpower to do decent quality checks. Using parts stripped from other tanks also increases risks for breakdown.

[@gregoryfilin8040]

This isn't the reality though.

[@richardcutts196]

That presumes that a reliably working tank is more important, to the repair base management, than being able to report another refurbished tank is being sent out from the repair base. If it breaks down in combat it's not their problem, just operator error.

[@DruidTimer]

More likely, if they bother to pull an old tank from a yard, it will have a new pack, fire controls, wiring harnesses, new bearings, etc, replaced. Strip the hull and turret, and rebuild with new components. Most stripped parts would likely go through some sort of recycle; some electrical parts for example have a finite life span. It would be like trying to get any other vehicle running after it has sat out in the weather for 20 years, it would probably need a complete restoration. Just because it's Russia doing it, does'nt mean it's all $#!t quality.

[@stamfordmeetup]

Putin started his imperialist invasion with armoured columns 40km long. Now Russia uses 1 Lada, a Golf Buggy and 12 North Koreans sharing one e-bike.

[@sumeetagrawal1888]

😂😂😂😂good one bro but true

[@Abdullah-mh7eg]

😹

[@BlackPill-pu4vi]

Putin went in half-assed. He failed to psychologically prepare his troops, went in without advance forces to prepare the way, stalled from lack of logistics, and had to get bailed out by using Wagner Group. He then failed to support WG and they got chewed up. After Wagner was fired, he still went in using the Stalinist strategy of tanks and artillery and little else. His tanks went in piecemeal without air support and infantry. As a result, Russia's best tanks were popped like corks on a champagne bottle.

[@JL_____]

🤣🤣 Sharing is caring

[@tygod312]

Lok

[@codyarcher3263]

They inherited one of the mightiest equipment stockpiles in history, and have squandered it in but 3 years.

[@Therakus]

They've been squandering it for 30 years through neglect, corruption and sales.

[@twoninetwosevenone]

Squandered ??? I don't think you appreciate how many bus-stops the Orcs have captured for the sacrifice .

[@Wub-rv9xx]

@@twoninetwosevenone😂

[@cv990a4]

@@Therakus Ability for Putin to pretend he's a Soviet war leader - invaluable. At least for him.

[@larsrons7937]

@@twoninetwosevenone Don't forget the tree lines, and the wheat fields - which they've fertilized with their own troops.

[@adamhall5298]

Just a reminder that Russia has lost tens of thousands of troops and thousands of pieces of equipment, and has yet to conquer a single administrative capital in Ukraine. We are almost 3 years into the biggest European war since WW2.

[@tedarcher9120]

Hundreds of thousands

[@tuub1281]

It conquered 5 and lost 2. What are you smoking?

[@demomanchaos]

@@tuub1281 Donbas and Crimea were already occupied by pro-russian forces prior to the 2022 invasion so they don't count.

[@Alan.livingston]

Just a reminder that when Trump comes in, given his relationship with Putin, he will negotiate a freezing of hostilities and that ground taken will be permanently gone. They now control three quarters of Ukraines Black Sea coastline including the entirety of the Sea of Azov which is a major regional waterway. They have added key mines and countless acres of some of the best farm land in the world to their country. Russia will just build more gear and breed more people. I’m sure old mate Putin would have loved if the Ukrainians had collapsed in a few days but as it currently pans out they have taken a chunk of land bigger than England. They could give two tosses for internet pundits spreadsheet victories. I have no idea why people in the west continue to try to minimise the severity of what’s transpiring. A authoritarian country has used force of arms in the face of the rules based order who have in turn responded with lukewarm support before seemingly opting for appeasement.

[@stevens1041]

Luhansk and Donetsk are what? Mariupol is a pretty important city too. However, I overall agree with you and the biggest failure would be Kharkov. It is an incredibly valuable city about industry, research, and logistics and is the second largest city in all of Ukraine I believe.

[@ludvig7473]

Could we get an artillery count again as an early project for 2025? The numbers have dwindled the last months so it would be interesting to see where they are at

[@janerikpe5852]

They are importing NK artillery now.

[@janerikpe5852]

Already on the battlefields.

[@ludvig7473]

@@janerikpe5852 I meant where the numbers are at, i.e. how much is left in storage

[@DylanIE_]

@@ludvig7473 Well according to western projections Russia should've ran out of everything and retreated out of Crimea at this point. Hmm, consider maybe these kinds of analyses are wrong? Lol.

[@DylanIE_]

@@ludvig7473 Well according to western projections Russia should've ran out of everything and retreated out of Crimea at this point. Hmm, consider maybe these kinds of analyses are wrong? Lol. Slava Ukraine for the algorithm.

[@JinKee]

T-72 becoming collectable

[@Drindiades]

They are becoming the high-end classification in Russia 🤣

[@RobR4455]

Thanks!

[@joncarlosmjs4502]

Takk!

[@stuarmanha]

Very impressive numbers, but I feel I am somehow a bit disappointed with the end of the year video - which is not Covert Cabals fault. I guess I expected lengthier video and more expanded breakdown of all the numbers, engineering, artillery etc. Its a free show put together by small group of enthusiasts, so I am the one spoiled by the internet.

[@callips9550]

I feel the same but i am also impressed how much work cover cabal himars and chompy have put in to

[@UNYEILDING]

There are previous vehicle analysis videos that explains the team's methodology. I think Perun has been spoiling everyone with an hour long upload every week lol

[@captainchaoscow]

I understand you but there is also the risk of being repetitive for most viewers.

[@zacklewis342]

He's just trying to satisfy sponsor quotas at this point. Almost no value in this episode, which should have been comprehensive.

[@Cyrribrae]

Comprehensive? It's a tiny team doing incredibly tedious and detailed work lol. I DO support the idea of longer videos. Could have easily gone into more repetitive detail in this video and doubled the length and I would have watched it. Dopamine hit every time I see a storage base nearly emptied. And then make some Shorts cuts to satisfy the low attention span people.

[@billwhite1603]

They have been using the horrifying blitz of golfcarts and scooters. Not quite tanks, but very mobile. Slow, unarmored, limited distance, but four wheels.

[@iVETAnsolini]

Than they pile up in a building just to get waxed by arty or drones. Really fucking sad honestly.

[@ArKritz84]

@@iVETAnsolini That's the point that's not made often enough. Everybody is losing in this war, but nobody is losing more than RU.

[@brettbenson7690]

I've been trying to figure out how any of them get through the fall rasputitsa.

[@gregoryfilin8040]

​@@ArKritz84THAT is an actual lie and a cope.

[@gregoryfilin8040]

​@@brettbenson7690wide tires, high speed, light weight, small units. That's the secret.

[@leonehardt2378]

finally there it is

[@lukejackson1575]

By the way, they're not producing 250 tanks a year. IISS estimated ~100 T-90M per year of which 3/4 were overhauled T-90As. Now, T-90A may have run out (we don't see many at UralVagonZavod for quite some time), so it is possible they've switched entirely to new production. A CSIS analyst estimated 120-130 new build T-90M per year, and this is optimistic.

[@supersim81]

It´s surprisingly slow process to build a tank.

[@harryricochet8134]

Yep, that meagre volume of production can't even go near to meeting demand,

[@michaelr4858]

They are losing about that in a month if they keep trying they’re I’ll-fated offensives

[@Xer405]

​@@supersim81 all the electronics put into modern tanks slow down production. Another factor is they are not at a good enough production rate because they just started optimizing production. I doubt they expected this many losses

[@BjorckBengt]

I heard pre-war figures were 1 new tank per week and this is now 2 new per day which is a significant increase yet abysmal.

[@joe2mercs]

I get the impression that if a tank has not already moved within a storage facility it is unlikely now to ever move. Many tanks in storage are shown with hatches open so in all likelihood these are rusty hulks waiting to be scrapped.

[@TheFrewah]

It’s kind of funny that abandoned tanks in Ukraine also have open hatches quite often

[@beefsuprem0241]

Probably wasn't an officer present to tell them to close it💩

[@TheFrewah]

@ It seems as if russian officers are not present where the action is. Those that have been captured have told they were dumped somewhere and if an officer took them there, he also made a dash to some more secure place.

[@satnav9699]

Would be good to see a video on Ukraine, North Korea and Iraian remaing stockpiles since they are the other parties in this war.

[@Ranyick]

Neither North Korea nor Iran send tanks and Ukraine ran out of its own tanks years ago and has to rely on donations from the west since. Those storages would be interesting to see

[@UP7729]

Ukraine has an unlimited supply

[@bobh9882]

@@Ranyick Russia keeps donating every day. 🤣😁😂😛

[@johnny_eth]

Ukraine is barely conducting any offensive operations, hence armored vehicles are not being used that much

[@TheTitaniumSkull]

I doubt that will tell much from that side of things. Ukraine has been capturing russian equipment and putting it back into service so any Sat footage will be a moment in flux. Added to the sporadic influx of western equipment the numbers are constantly going up and down and back up, plus Ukraine is not storing in large numbers in fixed areas that present as a target for russia, they keep them distributed as one way to say it and changing the locations after a while.

[@lukasgruber1280]

"Good on paper" describes the self proclaimed "second best army in the world" in a nutshell

[@uss-dh7909]

For a time, second best army in Russia. Actually, now that Ukraine has a toehold, yes, second best army in Russia still.

[@aocg1914]

Rusia its the 3rd best army, in rusia..

[@DylanIE_]

@@uss-dh7909 You mean the ukranian army that keeps getting encircled because they don't want to withdraw? They're better? Lol.

[@Lorethe2nd]

They are withdrawing, though tactically. Russia still has a significant manpower advantage, once it burns through that it will not be able to keep attacking.

[@DylanIE_]

@@Lorethe2nd Tactically? Are you blind? Look at Kurakhove, the villages south of Kurakhove. Selydove. Now at Velika novosylka. About a week ago a double encirclement south of Velika Novosylka. Vuhledar. All those encirclements (by Ukranian soldiers accoutns) take 50+% casualties on withdrawal. You had an entire brigade routed at Vuhledar and you're telling me they "tactically" withdrew. Russia has 100× the manpower currently being used. Most people are completely unaffected by the war. No mobilisation, no nothing. Volunteers get paid huge amounts of money to go and fight. I don't think you realise that Russia is taking this war at like 20%. Lmao. Listen to more western media. Supposedly Russia ran out of all weaponry about 2 years ago.

[@Gulorz]

Incredible work, really appreciate your effort. Keep it up.

[@martingrzanna2005]

thank you for your comprehensive, interesting and informative work

[@hosermcmoose]

Fantastic work on this! The attention to detail you (+Jompy + Himarsed) put into looking at all the bases is well beyond anything I've seen anywhere else. This kind of raw, data-driven info really helps separate the reality from the propaganda seen in a lot of news.

[@MaxGanistrat]

finally latest update. thanks for your work

[@fluffymyato3334]

reminder that a horse-reliant germany took france (with a belgium+netherlands-sized road bump and british support), denmark, half of poland and etc. in less than 2 years. meanwhile russia will be celebrating the 3rd year of their special military operation against one of the poorest countries in europe.

[@robertpatrick3350]

5 years later…after the Soviets ditched their Nazi allies they rode into combat using Studabaker trucks from the US.

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

​@@robertpatrick3350 From Kursk to Berlin was one year and ten months, but that was because Stalin asked the Americans for weapons and then gave those to the Ukrainians...

[@LuxATemporeNostro]

If us Belgians had NLAWs, Manpads, Javelins, drones, howitzers etc, then those German horses wouldnt have stand a chance!

[@azimskay]

The poorest country in Europe, but the biggest (apart from Russia itself) and with the support of like 20 most powerful/rich countries in the world. Without this support they would probably reach a peace agreement in Spring 2022.

[@reluctantheist5224]

​@@azimskayYou mean a take over, capitulation.

[@adeptusjoker7176]

awesome work

[@artcamp7]

This war competes strongly for the most ridiculous, pointless and arrogant military adventure in history

[@TRD-JDM]

@@artcamp7 never sell your country to Blackrock or Vanguard🤷‍♂️

[@vikkoro]

It is not so pointless and has a lot in common with China's attempt to get Taiwan

[@stuglife5514]

@@TRD-JDM Ah, so not bootlicking Russia = selling out to Vanguard. What a sad pathetic way to view the world

[@SweBeach2023]

Not if they are able to hold the areas occupied, them being almost twice the size of the Netherlands. May look small on a map, but is far from a tiny area.

[@gregoryfilin8040]

Maybe from your point of view. But all it says is you care nothing for the truth.

[@Hashashin74]

We thank all of you for your hard work, i could not have done the counting on screen, hats off to you all.

[@Lemurion287]

It's also becoming difficult for them because they are expending more and more resources to refurbish less and less capable tanks.

[@ImperialDiecast]

The tank fleet that wanted to reach Lisbon now rusts in the Donbas.

[@Jezar7]

Don't forget about Alaska... 😂, but everything is going according to Putin's plan.

[@marcusott2973]

Much awaited, much appreciated looking forward to excellent insights as always from you.

[@cameronhermann9400]

Find this video after I heard Ryan McBeth mention the work you do on the Pyotr Kurzin channel. Happy to say I am subscribed now, Happy New Year

[@bc-guy852]

An impressive amount of very detailed work, from essentially three people! Thank you all for your work. And I see a TON of bot and troll comments! Take that as a form of compliment.

[@homerboy91]

8:23 Maybe thats what we are seeing now, their number of tanks in offensives are declining and therefore we are seeing an increase in Russian casualties.

[@alphax4785]

It's winter, even Russia can't conduct offensives at the pace they have in optimal times for the past year+ now.

[@yves2932]

@@alphax4785 Once the ground is frozen there's not much that hinders a mechanized offensive. Other than lack of equipment

[@jov7733]

I haven't observed this. The average sq km/day that the Russians net gain is increasing, has increased every month since July. Also, I don't see them using less tanks, I see them using proportionally more dirt bikes and quads, but they do not use "less" IFV's or tanks.

[@nikolaideianov5092]

​@@jov7733this is simply becose like russia ukraine is exhausted Along with problems with building defencive positions Although Land doesnt matter in this war As long as its not threatening a major city/town/railway/etc or is valuable for some other reason Ukraine has deployed a a lot of forces to kursk, which defenitly has a large impact on this

[@homerboy91]

@@jov7733 What I mean is not an over all less use of tanks, but percentage wise a decrease of tanks used, and an increase in use of dirt bikes quads and so on, which results in an increased casualty rate, because the soldiers are less protected.

[@traineebrainsurgeon]

My hot take is that Russia has in the region of 1000 (900-1200) remaining reasonably actionable hulls to repair/upgrade to create operational tanks of various capabilities. The ever present question of when they will "run out" of tanks has already been answered: it was a year ago when tanks stopped being ubiquitous in Russian assaults.

[@Therakus]

Perun did a video on the topic a few weeks ago. He used Cabal’s data and the OSINT folks (jompy, etc) mentioned in this video.

[@user-yl1xy5eg7b]

A lot of the hulls are rotting. The gears and big ends (I can imagine the thumping noise, just as a Ukrainian tank or a Bradley appears!) are probably useless. They've been in inclement weather for decades...

[@Lorethe2nd]

Definitely a hot take

[@ISawABear]

bro you guys can make longer videos to extract more ad revenue, we will gladly watch it. i feel like the amount of work you guys put in for the open source intel community isnt matched by how much you get out of it

[@atomf9143]

This! We won't mind it being stretched out if we keep getting high-quality reviews like this.

[@snibor99]

Love your work ... excellent stuff ... and cant believe your immense patience ... Your eyesight must be awesome

[@stuartdavidson4090]

Awesome work! Thanks guys!

[@medicdroidz]

Skip to 2:30

[@ryan19876]

That ad gives him opportunity for you to view this. Doesnt cost you nothing he spends a lot of time working on this.

[@drawingdead9025]

This level of loss from invading a neighbor, a neighbor using 2-3 generation old equipment.

[@tuub1281]

The invading country used nearly the same tech equipment though.

[@michaeldavis3819]

Thanks for your analysis! I appreciate your explanations on your methodologies.

[@importantname]

Great work Covert Cabel. Thank you for excellent intelligence and reporting.

[@NothernNate]

This is so good! 🤘🏼

[@evilwelshman]

Here's a trick I wonder any enterprising Russian reactivation company has caught onto yet. First, survey all remaining tanks and quote the average repair/reactivation cost per unit. Then, start with those in the best condition (and thus cheapest to reactivate) and pocket the change. Later, periodically re-audit the remaining stocks and provide new quotes; blaming the environment and further deterioration for the escalating costs.

[@Querulously]

Looking at AFVs and artillery barrels is becoming more relevant now Tank usage in this war is less prevalent Good work on the Tanks

[@teblack2]

AFVs I totally agree. Artillery barrels, well they can use other ways, like FABs, rockets, missiles and drones

[@andersjjensen]

@@teblack2 Artillery barrels are still very important. Because you can't drop a 152mm shell from a plane or launch it from a Grad. If Russia doesn't have the means to use the ammo their factories produce, they have in storage, or can import from NK, then they effectively don't "have ammo". A 152mm factory can't be retooled to become a FAB factory within a time span tolerable to Russia's current state. And the same goes for every other type of munition. If they lose access to the base platform in any single ammo category, those ammo factories become useless. Which degrades overall firepower. And Russia is heavily reliant on raw firepower. Their entire strategy has so far hinged on leveling everything in front of them, and then advance treeline by treeline or city block by city block.

[@teblack2]

@andersjjensen are you omitting drones for a particular reason? I think they pair well with 152s. And with respect to your other point, Russia is tacking ground without totally leveling it (in general) so they are using less projectiles than before, possible because Ukraine has less manpower and chooses to retreat more and conserve man that we saw last year for example

[@Rose.Of.Hizaki]

I wonder how much manpower they have committed to breaking down/salvaging parts from old tanks. There has to be a few _'breakers'_ yards whose sole purpose is to scrap and break down old tanks for parts so others can be restored elsewhere.

[@n30a]

Honey! Honey wake up the season final of Covert Cabal dropped!

[@johanneslastovka9189]

I have waited for this video !! thank you for making these

[@MSP-km6li]

I’d be interested to see if NK starts supplying tanks to Russia

[@jakobmax3299]

I would guess they won't sell significant amounts of tanks. They themselves are mainly using old repeatedly upgraded tanks.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@jakobmax3299 Any tank is better than no tank

[@janmacek1648]

Maybe in next year. But as always we need photos to prove it

[@Octopussyist]

​@@u2beuser714 As we already see. I was taugt already in the 90es that I would have little chance against a modern tank with simpler means like the RPG 7 or Molotov cocktails and even would have problems with the M 72 LAW rocket. And here they come in WWII tanks.

[@kemicalhazard8770]

that would be funny, since Russia supplied a lot of the munitions and gear that is now being gifted from it's allies, back to themselves

[@RolandStenutz]

Leaving the hatches open must do wonders for the interior. Have they fitted a plug in the bottom so that they can be conveniently emptied?

[@Jerbod2]

Usually there's a hatch I believe.

[@pjacobsen1000]

I always look forward to a Covert Cabal video. Just the data, no hype. I love that.

[@fooman1188]

That was a massive amount of work. Thanks for a great update. 🎉

[@tomwende5529]

Thanks for the incredibly detailed work you continue to do!

[@PaulMyers-q1m]

Went to war thinking had a unlimited numbers of good tanks in storage then got a bad wake up call😮

[@lolatyoubrah]

I don't know what's funnier, the fact that one of the tanks had a tree growing out of it, or how unphased the mechanics looked 😂

[@johanneslastovka9189]

I think that is put there on purpose by the mechanics to “baptize” a new tank?

[@Mugdorna]

Indeed. Surely that would be the first thing to get removed?

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

​@@johanneslastovka9189first time I saw it.... new tradition invented that day?

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

​@@Mugdorna "Not my job, not my problem" - Ivan, probably

[@AndyZielinski]

I always worry to myself about the time between CC videos, but then I see one and remember how much work goes in and feel bad for complaining sorry a d thanks CC

[@GoBlesstheSky]

Want to lose less tanks? Go home!

[@ericlane3256]

Wish we got a updated pre-war number, but the 3D model is pretty interesting.

[@philiptilden2318]

7.24 They didn’t bother to pull out the tree that had taken root in the tank… Presumably its roots are holding in some vital component…?😂

[@jackgraves5121]

Grow your own camouflage while driving to the front.

[@saumyacow4435]

Hey CC.. love your work. A couple of points. Firstly the true pre-war count would have included a lot of vehicles deployed to various places that aren't storage bases. Including lots of locations in occupied Ukraine. I think Russia had more than they were ever letting on. So at this stage I feel comfortable with the fact that the true number of lost tanks is closer to the Ukraine MoD figure than Oryx. Secondly, you're right that even when Russia exhausts its stockpiles, it will still have production. But that production is so low relative to present loss rates that the impact will be profound. We're already seeing Russia resorting to pure meat tactics more and more. And we're already seeing Russia losing men at an accelerated pace. Well beyond the recruitment rate. The only remaining obstacle to Ukraine launching a larger and more effective offensive is to degrade Russia's bombing capability. Let loose the long range drones of war! This aint over.

[@TheGPR101]

We've been hearing that for the last three years now...Precisely the attitude Putin is looking to foster.

[@dogsnads5634]

RUSI currently estimates Russian new tank production as c40 per year. That's new as in new hull and turret. The Russians have managed to make more 'new' tanks in recent years by rebuilding T-80 and T-90 chassis....but the T-90 and T-80 stockpiles are almost all done...

[@03056932]

​@@dogsnads5634it's 160 t90m per year now in wartime production. Your data is old or seriously propaganda laden

[@johnclay2716]

" So at this stage I feel comfortable with the fact that the true number of lost tanks is closer to the Ukraine MoD figure than Oryx " Holy cope

[@saumyacow4435]

@@johnclay2716 Holy projection

[@petereriksson4405]

Awesome! Huge thanks for all the work you do!

[@hamsterg0d]

Thanks for your report!

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Thanks CC, also Jompy & Highmarsed from Canberra 🇦🇺

[@CalgarGTX]

Not to mention that they have already introduced 'new' variants of T-72/80 that are the same but... worse than the older models, ie no or worse gun stabilizer/range finder/thermals/optics. Theres a reason we almost never see the tanks leading the meatwave APC convoys actually shoot, they wouldn't hit the side of a barn much less a guy showing only his head from a trench.

[@prebenpetersen5982]

Good work and I’m sure, a shit load of work to put such a presentation together

[@RKabasaC]

Thanks for all your hard work!! Love your videos!!

[@ChrisBarnes199]

You all are so awesome!! Great video

[@patavinity1262]

Frankly I'm surprised they still have so *many* tanks.

[@chefchaudard3580]

Ussr stockpile was huge and Russia inherited a large part of it. And the lack of money means that most of the tanks were not deconstructed. .

[@bobeyes3284]

We all heard about the size of the Soviet arsenal. Only took 3 years of farmers using borrowed equipment to decimate the stocks. I think that's pretty good going, I'm surprised how few Russia have left.

[@tomdemay6147]

@@bobeyes3284 they still have 3000 tanks and are making new ones. Ukraine supporters delusional.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@bobeyes3284 "how few" literally 2 thousands left what you mean "few" ?

[@keianpena9635]

​@@u2beuser714 for ref,china has around 6500 tanks in service. Its quite few considering their doctrine and type of war relies heavily on it.

[@TheSpeep]

7:12 Why is there a tree growing out of that tank?

[@okbutthenagain.9402]

Thres not. Read my answer as to why there is a tree.

[@owen-trombone]

That’s the secret weapon Tree Tank.

[@johanprb357]

Russian camouflage!

[@theduke7539]

and while it may be cheaper to build a new tank, the T62 uses the same engine as the T72 and T90, its plug and play, and Ukraine was putting T80 turrets on T64 hulls before the war, Russia could easily produce more turrets and mount them on old hulls. Turrets can be produced much faster than hulls. The limiting factor becomes the cannons and the optics

[@peterpanini96]

Russia is meh.. they can't produce not enogh gulag to produce steel.

[@JelMain]

And the battle awareness controls.

[@fredbloggs7131]

The T80 is effectively a development of the T64, a turret swap is not an issue. Other turrets might be an issue if the turret ring is not the same.

[@miki_9034]

@@peterpanini96 The main benefit of not privatizing your military industry is, you can produce everything for a much cheaper price and you don't have to pay the CEO's millions for counting beans. Have you seen how much DOD paid to Boeing for a soap dispenser?

[@theduke7539]

@miki_9034 yeah, except Russia's primary problem is corruption. How do you think Shoigu bought an 18 million dollar residence on a 100,000 dollar salary. Corruption and decades of negelect have rotted Russia's military to the core. Im just pointing out that they aren't totally out of options and are still a threat to their neighbors

[@pehrbrahe]

Amazing work once again! Thank you for the whole team for this gargantuan effort! 💪🏻

[@thedownwardmachine]

Wasting your quantity has a wasteful quality all its own.

[@davefave4351]

The numbers of 'Turtles'/'Tracked Garden Sheds', unable to fire the main weapon, no visibility, used as troop transport would suggest an inability to repair systems or replace barrels? Doesn't really sound like it's all going to plan does it?

[@nikolaideianov5092]

Nah russia clearly has only send its bad forces to weaken ukraine Soon it will send is good forces /sarcasm

[@glenmurie]

I imagine Russia's ability to repair or build tanks is limited by the demographic crisis of fewer skilled young people available to do that work. They have a very low birth rate, are feeding young men into the meat grinder of Ukraine, and many who could leave Russia have left over conscription fears.

[@knoll9812]

Corruption has run down capability over decades to produce tanks. Hard to fix as embargo on heavy machine tools.

[@Shoelessjoe78]

Outstanding work. Appreciate the effort and acknowledgement of what you can and cannot verify

[@ostwelt]

Excellent work as ever. Thank you for doing it: a real community benefit.

[@rannyacernese6627]

Russia may win but they have 3 problems. 1 million dead or injured( not that they care) used up their stockpiles of Soviet equipment they can’t easily replace. Given the performance of its equipment it may not be wise to even try replacement. They’re not going to Poland anytime soon.

[@itsmederek1]

I don't see a way for Russia to win as long as Ukraine maintains this level of defence. Russia can make decent gains for another year and have conquered 5% more of UA territory with no more stockpiles left, a shattered economy and a massive amount of losses. No way to replace the equipment losses either except with the golf-cart tactic \_0_/. The pace of the war will have to start slowing drastically at some point in 2025 because something has to give, and it doesn't look like it will be Ukraine.

[@AClockworkWizard]

@@itsmederek1 Really? You don't see a way for them to win? Don't you realise the West forcing Ukraine into a "ceasefire" will be a victory for russia?Their mobilization reserve will be replenished with the half a million Ukrainians in occupation and the 2 million they've already forcefully relocated deeper into russia. They'll rebuild part of their armour stockpiles when the sanctions inevitably lift and all the German money starts pouring in. Then in a decade you'll be making memes about how their rusted tanks are having so much trouble taking Krakow, while NATO decides that no-one really wants to start WW3 over a tiny bit of Poland.

[@threethrushes]

Russia has been doing this piece-meal strategy for centuries to acquire land. It's nothing for them to sacrifice a generation of men for territory that makes no impact to their way of life for the average person. It gives the illusion that Russia is a great country, whilst people are using outside toilets outside of the major citieis. Source: studied, worked, travelled in European Russia for a few years.

[@Thaddeusduboi]

1 million from your arse. The moments you using UA mod source everyone with decent knowledge knowing you're bs.

[@itsmederek1]

@@Thaddeusduboi K ivan

[@markmonaghan2309]

Fantastic thanks again

[@jimmyc3238]

Great video. I would also like to see an analysis of trained tank crews: number available, rate of loss, rate of replacement, etc. A tank without a good crew is useless.

[@peterflohr7827]

Seems impossible to me to get reliable numbers on that.

[@jimmyc3238]

@@peterflohr7827 Agreed. And I assume that for most of these destroyed tanks/armored vehicles, the crew was either killed or horribly injured.

[@markuskomann3108]

@@jimmyc3238 If they were destroyed during an attack: yes. But there are also many clips where an abandoned tank is destroyed.

[@pikminlord343]

Great video!

[@__kvik]

What's more important than a number of hulls, engines, and even guns, is all the electronics and other equipment that make a tank actually effective in the field in ways other than being a rolling metal coffin.

[@johnwalsh4857]

quite true its not running out of tanks and esp IFVs and APCs but creating a shortage of these vehicles, heck they already have a shortage in trucks so much that the Russians are using civilian cars to transport supplies to the front. The worse the shortage is the better for Ukraine. and in the long run the severe depletion of these war stocks build for several decades, is bad for Russia in the long run and its ability to fight the next war.

[@Gorboduc]

ME: "Wake up babe, new satellite-based inventory of remaining Russian armor just dropped!" HER: "Sod off."

[@jeffarchibald3837]

Ever look inside a neglected tank? Only the hull/ turret are easily reused.

[@kcgunesq]

Did I see the photos correctly? it appears to me as if the hatch is left open on a fair amount of the stored tanks. That can't be be good for them, right?

[@robertw.anderson6102]

Another in depth report! I can’t comprehend how they can sustain these kinds of losses. This demonstrates just how in the dark the Russian people are.

[@davestevenson9080]

It's most likely because the losses are exaggerated, and don't include vehicles that are repaired. the same tank can be counted many times

[@MrCoconut212]

@@deensedudevonand4115 yeah, right. Now go collect your 20 rubles, quisling.

[@atomf9143]

You summoned a few bots with this comment. Well done! IDK what the reward is though.

[@davestevenson9080]

@@atomf9143 That's right mate, everyone who doesn't support the jewish regime of ukraine couldn't possibly be a real person !

[@Ollies2CentsWardill]

@@deensedudevonand4115 The US did not "attack" the vast majority of those places. There were existing wars going on, dictators attacking others or their own people and nations harbouring terrorist training camps . The notion that the US attacked Japan in 1945 is beyond ret*ded.

[@AlbertZonneveld]

The graph at 5:05 is incorrect. On the one hand it suggest that at the start more than the counted tanks existed but in the end less than the counted tanks exist The explanation is that in the end many tanks cannot be restored. But they should have been subtracted in the beginning as wel. Now it is a red line that represent ALL stored tanks in the beginning but only the USABLE ones in the end The red line should be 2000 lower in the start because the condition issues were already existing then and not suddenly appeared in the 3 years of extra storage

[@SlavicCelery]

Perhaps not. Some of the tanks have already had parts pulled from them, lowering their status from rebuildable to parts vehicles. Also, you may not get all the parts you need from a single donor vehicle. In a perfect world, it's one parts tank for multiple repaired tanks. I think in 2023 counts there were a number of tanks that all got stripped of turrets. You may need multiple donor tanks to get one other tank rebuilt. And those donor parts don't magically reappear. Many donor vehicles may have been on the easier side to rebuild at the beginning of the conflict, but got the best parts pulled to get other ones on the front. You're going to be utilizing a whole spectrum of vehicles. Considering Russia wasn't planning on having an extended conflict, they probably didn't source parts from the worst units first.

[@jov7733]

The starting number is incorrect regardless because he used his visual count of outdoor tanks. It should be something like 17,000 - 22,000 (numerous sources cited prior to 2022).

[@MDP1702]

@@jov7733 I believe modern sources pre-war were at around 10k, definitely not double.

[@yaroslavromanyuk5669]

​@@jov7733The pre-war numbers were 10k in storage, 3k in service. Maybe around 2k produced, borrowed from Belarus and pre-T62 (nobody counted those)

[@jov7733]

​@@yaroslavromanyuk5669 Where are you getting 10k? I'm backdating internet searches to 2021 and I'm finding overwhelming evidence it should be 17k-22k and that's corroborated by tallying the individual tank type numbers.

[@SamHeine]

90% of Russia's tanks in storage are 50+ years old?

[@galactic-guy]

Yes. Everything in the storage bases is more then 30 years old as basically everything is from time of the soviet union.(except maybe some T-90s that were in storage before the war, but none of them are left anyways)

[@paullunkes8383]

Great analysis…many thanks!

[@AlexejGubin]

Thank you for your great counting effort!

[@tuub1281]

The amount of people assuming that one tank pulled out of storage equals one destroyed tank on the frontline is too damn high.

[@reaperz5677]

That's correct, but Russian tank storage dwindling is consistent with visually confirmed Russian losses, for the most part. So it doesn't really matter.

[@tuub1281]

@reaperz5677 It does when you take into consideration that the amount of Russian soldiers in Ukraine grew from roughly 200k in the early days of the war to nearly 600k now. This build-up also takes up a lot of equipment, including tanks.

[@nikolaideianov5092]

I dont think it matters enough 1 tank pulled means 1 tank that cannot be used to replace a destroyed tank And if they run out of tamks they will start pulling from x unit to y unit Which means the army is getting weaker exept y unit which at best doesnt loose any combat capability

[@colincampbell767]

If Russia were increasing the number of tanks in service, then we would be seeing loss rates climb until they again become equal to production. The monthly totals for Russian losses is a good indicator of what their monthly production capacities are. Just like personnel losses - if the Russians were recruiting more troops that they are losing then we would start seeing full strength Russian units and new units that we haven't seen yet.

[@andersjjensen]

Oh, this is not based on assumption. This is based on visually confirmed losses. The total number of Russian tanks in service has remained roughly the same. It peaked in 2022 and has slowly dwindled ever since, but by and large the numbers are comparable (so within only a couple hundred).

[@Ptolemy336VV]

Early poster. Thank you for the video