CVS Health (CVS) - Fundamental Stock Analysis | Estimated Investment Return

[@harrymartin8019]

I DON'T KNOW HOW I GOT HERE BUT BOY I'M I HAPPY!!!!

[@vengefulspirit99]

You must be the baby in the background

[@acampbell2178]

Now trading up nearly 27% around $74+ in the last 4 months (since your assessment). I'm going through all your past vids with a conservative's eye. I am only going to say that I should have subscribed to your channel sooner than I did.

[@Tabipk]

Honestly, you deserve more subscribers. You are doing an excellent job.

[@Outta12]

It takes time. We'll get here!!

[@MonteCristoKaramazov]

The six thumbs down 👎🏿 are those who lost money bc they were irrational investors. Cameron, keep up the good work, you are making smart money out of us rational investors

[@TheHarveySpectre]

CVS now is trading at 111 today. I am so happy that I listen to this channel. Thanks a TON !!!

[@CstewartCFA]

awesome.

[@robertlopez9347]

I'm long CVS. My price target is $150 a share based on 2020 financial numbers. Narrative of management doesn't matter. Only pay attention to the numbers. The numbers for CVS look great. $13.4 billion in free cash flows for 2020. Revenue is up to $268 billion for year 2020 from $256 billion in year 2019. Earnings yield is 11.15% for CVS (EY= EBIT/EV). Way under valued. A $150 price would bring the earnings yield down to about 5%. Price to cash flow per share is 5.80. Price to sales ratio is 0.34. Complete bargain. Great analysis thanks!!!👌👌👌👌

[@maulikdave3780]

I can’t stop watching these videos, I downloaded the course as well. I am learning so much very happy I found this channel, THANK YOU!!!

[@Rockhard215]

Can you discuss your portfolio please.

[@andrewgibson1472]

Cameron Stewart, CFA is great find. Excellent analysis across many stocks. Love CVS long term

[@domg2624]

Glad to see subscriber numbers increasing. Very much deserved, this is one of the best investment channels I have found. Keep up the great work Cameron! Would love to see analysis of AVGO (Broadcom)

[@scottiebumich]

Would love to hear you thoughts of CVS vs Cigna (or even Anthem)

[@sep69]

I really like the thorough way you analyze businesses. Great work ! subscribed :)

[@Czarjonz]

Cameron, I teach an introductory financial acctg & analysis class for MBA students. Dude, your analytical approach & explanations are so clear, I’ve recommended your channel to my graduate students, particularly those students that lack undergraduate business backgrounds or are not yet financially literate. Thanks.

[@MrMister731]

Man oh man what incredible, succinct, knowledgable information! Truly a breath of fresh air.

[@diegues3281]

Cameron, your content is always top-notch. Your editing and video quality have significantly improved since the release of this video. I would love to see an update on CVS

[@CstewartCFA]

ya, that was back in the day. I can look into CVS and Walgreens

[@JesseDWilliamsJr]

After watching his videos, i felt informed enough to then go learn the rest of the terms in balance sheets, income statements and cash flow statements. Now I’m a much more informed investor. This channel is super useful

[@CstewartCFA]

Excellent!

[@joshuagrossman2902]

Thank you for this channel! Bought after watching this in the Fall and has been great so far!

[@strawbearrySmoothie]

Got into investing/trading this year, and wanted to get this as a first dividend stock. The debt had me concerned initially, but I'm feeling comfortable letting this be a big part of my new portfolio now. Thank you! :)

[@OliSGM]

Love all these videos, they are by far the best on KZbin - Im currently watching back all the older videos :D

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks !!!

[@danielcastro1705]

Your detailed approach and step by step explanations of the financial concepts/calculations is really helpful. I wouldnt mind even more technical approach and I've seen a lot of requests for a detailed guide on your valuations! Really impressive, great work!

[@ewtubewatcher]

you deserve way more subscribers. so much valuable info. no clickbait videos full of froth.

[@ricoparks4031]

I watch all your vids it they really helped my portfolio

[@ermirhoxhaj5739]

Just started yesterday a long position on CVS, love it. Just seeing this video, but love it, as enforcing my analysis on this strong stock. Thanks, Cameron! Looking forward to a more beautiful analysis for the long term.

[@CP-qg4ks]

Awesome video! I don’t understand how to read balance sheets and cash flow statements so I love how you walked us through it thanks. I will be coming back for more

[@markbaier8218]

Nice review. I own CVS and debated about selling. Going to retain the stock and see what happens. Thanks again!

[@chessdad182]

I love CVS. Shop there all the time. Also a stockholder for the long term.

[@skylerzunker7013]

Top notch investment channel, this is by far the most educational fact based analysis I've been able to find on KZbin. CVS was on my watchlist so the information really helped paint a clearer picture of future expectations. Keep the great content coming Cameron, would love to see analysis of another stock I have been closely monitoring to add to my dividend portfolio - Realty Income (O)

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks!! I haven’t done a REIT yet. I’m not sure how the commercial real estate space is going to survive the work from home new normal....

[@michaei1726]

Cameron Stewart, CFA just echo everyone else, thank you

[@Gustavo-so7zk]

A 40 minute Cameron Stewart video? Day made. #ThankGodItsWednesday

[@endurethemarket5551]

Cameron Stewart, thank you, you have made me a smarter young investor and have encouraged me to stick to my holdings long term! You have also made me start uploading my own video 👍

[@johnbailey3351]

I would like to thank Cameron for the analysis. I bought a couple of moderate positions in both CVS & WBA after this presentation due to the following factors; 1) Holding too much cash; 2) Moderate valuations; 3) Reasonably good fundamentals based on my own analysis; 4) They served as a good diversifier versus the rest of my portfolios; & 5) Cameron's analysis. So far I am happy with the results.

[@HGLehnsdal]

I was waiting for you Cameron. Great analysis as always. Your work is amazing.

[@veritas4685]

Thanks for taking away some of the mystery for me. You have the heart of a teacher. Just subscribed.

[@daialos]

Can you please analyze SPG?

[@michaelharteel]

BY FAR best value investing channel on youtube, thankyou!!

[@CstewartCFA]

Glad you think so!

[@jeffreykristofeld9098]

Cameron Stewart is crisp and direct In his analysis. He takes the time to walk you thru his data. I am a follower. Would like to get a copy of his excel spreadsheets. Can you share?

[@TheDanielKahl]

Fantastic presentation. I am learning a ton with each episode.

[@MrNoBSgiven]

Cameron, you are one of my recent must-watch channels. Than you for your videos. There is one thing I would LOVE if you did : talk about about some of your formulas, so I could look and learn about the concepts like IRR. Would you mind sharing one of your spreadsheets? Thanks.

[@phantomcreamer]

9:15 but why not also consider the growth of aetna and that contribution of growth? What I mean to say is, if Aetna had higher or lower growth before the merger, that should be taken into consideration in the future growth of the merged company.

[@captalks6209]

Thank you so much for these videos, it really helps us understand how to value companies. Qualitative analysis and fundamental analysis combined to explain the pros and cons of long term investment opportunities. All the best!

[@jamb2962]

I bought at 32. It's been a good stock.

[@fin8927]

awesome effort and I appreciate the repetitiveness, makes me actually learn the stuff. Thanks!

[@7thSpringofthe7thSun]

thank you for the video Cameron, informative as always!

[@shankarh6915]

Thanks a lot Cameron, great video, as always! Appreciate all the effort ou put in to creating such awesome content, especially the framework you provide for the analyses. There's a lot to learn here and I am thankful for these videos!

[@ec345cayman]

It is funny. I came across your videos because I came up with the same companies that appear cheap. I had bought some Walgreens as well. I’d be interested to hear your take on Walgreens. Great job on the videos!

[@jaredcorreafitness9666]

Been looking forward to this analysis. Thanks so much for all your hard work Cameron it doesn't go unnoticed. Awesome work.

[@IbadassI]

Thanks for this analysis. It's so thorough. May your channel grow!

[@sudhirkathuria1259]

Excellent content- thanks !

[@thomasburgoyne2374]

Debt - I don't know if this has been mentioned. Beginning 2019 GAAP changed to require inclusion of "Long Term Capital Lease Obligation" in Debt. I am seeing this now in CVS in Yahoo on BalSheet under Non-Current "Long Term Debt And Capital Lease Obligation" and broken out into "Long Term Capital Lease Obligation." For 2019, it is $18,926,000,000. It does not solve all of the Debt but does help understand the numbers some. Thanks for your videos, I am learning a lot from your expertise as I try to understand this finance world.

[@CstewartCFA]

I include the lease obligations as debt, and it’s good that GAAP has made that change. Companies were hiding leverage by using leases.

[@thomasburgoyne2374]

@@CstewartCFA Yes you did, as it should, but that accounts for the big jump in debt YoY. It was not included 2018 and prior.

[@frankdavidson644]

Great information

[@user-nn9ty3mn5w]

great job, amazing analysis and explanation!

[@Entrepreneurshipchannel]

Inspiring as always. Their strong debt position enabled them to pursue acquisitions. Sure it led to a write down, but they don’t seem complacent and I like that.

[@BadgerDave]

I’ve been in the market for years, I have to be honest, this one slipped my radar screen. Thanks for the heads up, i’ll be taking a close look at this one.

[@carlosalbertomorenoperez652]

Gracias por los videos, realmente buenos,

[@theotherleaguers9658]

I think CVS is a great company to keep an eye on for now. Everything looks solid on their balance sheet, except for the debt. Obviously I understand that theyre doubling down on their long term prospects for revenue and FCF growth with the purchase of Aetna, but it still begs the question of how well they can pay their debt down in the current climate thtat we find ourselves in. I think in maybe 2 years, when I have more data on how well the debt is being handled and if the price is low enough, then I will get in but for now I am too 50/50 on getting in on this company. I generally like to agree with Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger on situations like this: If it doesnt scream at you that it is a great business, then you shouldnt buy.

[@equibitcrypto8915]

Very indebt and high quality, I want you to continue so I will give you a tip in how to get more viewers, do Kroger, Barric Gold and all these stocks Warren Buffet bought, then on your thumbnail put a picture of Warren buffet. This is quality stuff and your channel deserve many more viewers. Nothing wrong with making some click bait as long as you can follow it through with quality content. Once you have the audience you can pick the stocks you find interesting. Best of luck and keep on doing what your doing, great stuff.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the help. I hate seeing click bait as a viewer and am trying not to go that path. But it might be worth a try to see the impact on views... good call on Kroger I was waiting for COST’s annual report and do them both.

[@equibitcrypto8915]

@@CstewartCFA Everyone is doing the click bait these days, you kind of have to because of the competition. Also Gaming stocks like Nintendo and Blizzard is hot, due to the lock down the world jumped 5 years in to the future.

[@vsx9877]

Hey Cameron! Can you explain the calculation of the debt ST + LT please?

[@CstewartCFA]

It’s the long term bond debt, capital leases and current portion of each.

[@vsx9877]

@@CstewartCFA Can you explain more specifically please, I can't figure out how you get the number.

[@GilbertFleming]

Will you do an analysis of covered calls ETFs? QYLD, earning 11%?

[@robertjouma150]

Good run! Very informative , thank you for sharing.

[@phantomcreamer]

10:40 Can someone explain to me why look at EBITDA? I understand wanting to eliminate 1 time charges, but if you take an average of the past years, that smooths out charges. Charges are part of their real world ability to create cash. On the surface it seems like a bad way to assess growth. Maybe a company has a lot of one time charges and that will get completely lost in the analysis.

[@williamdonabue6383]

Can you do United Parcel Service?

[@lilbabydada8586]

Any changes to your analysis given the 900 store closings (10% of all locations) and the move to an online store format over the next 3 years?

[@sssandhu78]

Great Videos. Just wanted to point out. Your debt number for 2018 are correct. From their financial statement total debt is $72.7 billion. But your 2019 seems to be incorrect per their financial statement total debt is $68.5 billion. They actually paid down a significant amount last year and this year. Their current 2020 total debt is $64.4 billion.

[@markmeehan9908]

Great channel and great info! Also, lots of good questions to help us understand the analysis even more. However, asking Cameron to do another company analysis for you is NOT among them. Try doing your own and compare it with the ones he has already posted online.

[@agdaze26]

HI Cameron, love the content as always! Wanted to ask if you had any plans to make a video explaining your portolio managment process, weights & holdings distribution for example, a short response would also be very much appreciated! Cheers and keep up the awesome content!

[@CstewartCFA]

Yes. I want to add content around portfolio section and IRR requires for goals. Trying to find the time, one video a weeks is still a lot of work.

[@agdaze26]

@@CstewartCFA Glad to hear! To be honest I'm astonished as to how you even find the time to make a video per week, the effort & time per video/analysis is so much work! Best of luck with the channel growth :)

[@ajubhosle]

Thanks so much? Finally CVS! Thanks for this

[@cnce145]

Great one , u are awesome. I'd like to see a "Walgreens" analysis.

[@alicejackson6843]

Cameron, I don't understand how you got the the stock purchase prices or the %ages in the last table (See time 39.29). What is the calculation you used? Also, thanks for walking us through this process. It's been a huge help.

[@juanelizondo885]

love the channel!! keep it up!!

[@brandonpiserchia486]

Love this channel!Costco in the future would be awesome!

[@oxy204]

That's the best format ever. Keep on

[@samychafa885]

Excellent stuff ! Could you please evaluate Gilead Science ?

[@donnav7849]

Loved the video

[@Lex-yz7zj]

Amazing videos, could you do Swks, eBay, MCO, thanks

[@JmanIncome]

Could you do WBA please

[@jonnyrob440]

Thanks I was hoping that you would cover cvs:) have a great day

[@Faisal-uf8kt]

Few suggestions: Abbvie, Nike, Comcast, Verizon, 3M Company. Thank you for your videos 🙌🏼

[@plotniku]

Yes, Abbvie would be nice !!!

[@ComputerMan_OG]

Can you take a look at NET, mate?

[@rheymslazare861]

This is really informative...I just subscribed and will share this post...Great job!!!

[@CstewartCFA]

Awesome, thank you!

[@Justin-cn3qu]

I love you Cameron.

[@SurfCityBill]

Amazon just announced they're getting into pharma distribution. That could be headwind for CVS.

[@CstewartCFA]

Amazon bought a RX company 2 years ago

[@bananarepublic8951]

Cameron great video, by the way when calculating EV various people use different methods some define EV= market cap+ all liabilities-cash but in your analysis EV=SD+LD-CASH which is considerably smaller figure than taking all liabilities. So in your case as EV figure is smaller will generate smaller EV/EBITDA multiple which will give completely different multiple depend on which way you decided to calculate EV/EBITDA ratio. Could you explain why you don't include all short term and long term liabilities into EV figure? If someone buying the company shouldn't they be paying for short term and long term liabilities?

[@CstewartCFA]

You only include short term and long term debt as that is a capital structure decision. Like deciding to have a mortgage on a home or own the home debt free. Either way a home would still have liabilities for utilities, staff (if a big home), ... So for a business, which will have vendor liabilities, a credit card for purchasing, payroll liabilities, deferred revenues, which are all normal part of business and not a capital structure decision. You would not pay those off as part of the purchase price of the business. It's also why we only include Excess Cash and Not All Cash when calculating the EV as some cash must be left in the business to maintain operations. I hope this helps.

[@johnhedberg9728]

Another great video. I actually bought this stock last week, glad to see you confirmed my analysis. Would be interested on your thoughts on Unum..

[@markhopkins6056]

ABBV please!

[@razorramon760]

Excited for this analysis 🤑

[@Mesozoic_mammal]

Hey Cameron, one idea for future videos might be Huntington Ingalls (HII). The stock has gone down a lot lately but free cashflow is good and production is stable with a production backlog for the next five years.

[@matthewhausman]

why do you assume we get all the fcf/share? shouldn't only dividend payments be factored in since the reinvestment of fcf is reflected in the stock price

[@CstewartCFA]

I’ve talked about this in other comments. That cash is rightfully yours. But more to the point, the funds not paid as dividend can be used to buy back shares, which increase your % ownership and stock price, or make large acquisitions beyond the CAPEX cash spend. Both should increase share price. So I assume a payout but some of that cash flow would be in the form of share buyback or M&A activity. Cheers

[@JD-im4wu]

Such an Excellent Review proud subscriber!

[@Phoenix-lk5vt]

Thanks Cameron, awesome as always. Looks like I’m going to use Walgreens dividends to add some CVS 🤔

[@MrYas18]

Great video, how about Mastercard

[@Chrisx954]

Twitter's @Post_Market has entered the chat. Love CVS

[@shanekim10]

Just subscribed. This is great. By the way, I have one question - why didn’t you include repayment of short term debt for debt payment column values? Can you please explain why You only looked at long term debt on Cash flow statement? Thanks!

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the sub. I think of short term debt like a credit card or 30 day commercial paper notes. These debts are drawn and repaid over and over as part of business daily operations. The cycling greats noise in the cash flow. I’m primarily interested in long term debt as that is used to make capital investments, buy back stock, pay dividends. So if the short term debt isn’t too large, I focus on the long term. I hope this helps

[@BlaqBuddah]

Hi Cameron.....Great job as usual. One question I have for you. What are you views on quarterly vs annual models? I always go back and forth with this but I prefer annual because my views tend to be long term and quarterly models are really time consuming.

[@CstewartCFA]

For the amount of work per period, I cover more time annually. So for 8 annual periods I see the business for almost a decade of business cycle, vs 8 quarters is only 2 years.

[@BlaqBuddah]

@@CstewartCFA Gotcha!! Thanks for that.

[@graceypatrick]

CVS is a great company I don’t see how investing in a company like this could be bad

[@emkoravo]

When assessing the ebitda growth rate would you recalculate and assign a weighting to the different years growth or just keep a skeptical mind going forward in your analysis, tweaking the model for different assumptions as you go. Ps. your channel's inspired me to pursue more education in this field... and the ebitda section is a great review of what I just spent a few hours on. This channel is gold, keep up the good work (glad to see the subscription #'s ^ with your continued hard work) Cheers!

[@CstewartCFA]

I tend to stick with one scenario that is conservative and then risk adjust the IRR. So I’d needed a higher IRR for a turnaround with a conservative forecast when compared to a steady state business. Risk adjusting each year adds more complexity but I’m not sure it makes it more accurate. Thanks for the support. The channel is doing well.

[@muzakitaufik9907]

in 2018, why don't you add 44,343 into calculation of net debt payment or receipt? instead you only write -5,522 in 2018.

[@Allen-L-Canada]

Cameron, thanks for putting up a long video. I always love to hear when you reveal the insights/stories behind those numbers, which give us a much clearer picture of the companies. Also thanks for telling us where to get the numbers from a 10K. One question, what happened to their stock price? It's been down all the way from 2015. Did they buy a company in 2015? thanks.

[@CstewartCFA]

They bought Omnicare for $12.7 Billion in 2015

[@Allen-L-Canada]

@@CstewartCFA thanks!

[@carlosalbertomorenoperez652]

Can you review BIT LOTS, METLIFE and UNUM GROUP, please, thanks

[@ggmm1978]

Which sources do you use to get the 10 years detail data?

[@Mesozoic_mammal]

You could consider different websites (quickfs would be an example) but it looks as if Cameron considers the annual reports/10-k directly. Most companies have them on their websites for the last 10 years.

[@dr.briaro]

AstraZeneca, that is better longterm profit than CVS, I might be wrong. However, would be interesting if you one day make one analysis of AstraZeneca as well. thanks

[@johnleddy1136]

quality video, love your stuff