瓜瓜後,台灣政治形勢分析 我認為台灣對許薄聯姻的分析架構不對 1,薄上會使大陸政治更開明嗎?不會 認識一些大陸海歸,這種自由法治的想法,要好幾代才能改變。你看國民黨政三,四代那麼多,就知道不容易 2,薄會被放出來嗎?很大可能 習現在權力變小,以薄熙來連美國成都領事館都能敢包圍,大陸政局變化,不是台式推理能預測的 薄瓜瓜結婚成功,還拿下臺灣地方派系及,國民黨半邊天的王金平,大功一件, 我認為薄派必借勢興起,薄放出來機率很高,同時器官移殖必進入另一高峰, 3,對台灣影響 3-1,醫療系統高危機,許家可是地方大醫院,醫療資訊充足,人脈廣泛,對岸到時摸清楚台灣醫療產業,從小地方摸進來很難防。 只要薄派復興,人體標本復興,也就是一轉眼的事, 3-2,大陸政治氛圍,很大可能會更緊縮 到時,聯習倒批溫家寶及改革派,那大陸深紅派,可一統江湖,對深紅左派,又是一個世紀的美好時光,最少30-50年 3-3,美抗中氣氛,有可能會放鬆 對美問題,是他們某個程度能解決的。 Analysis of Taiwan's political situation after Xu Bo's marriage I think Taiwan’s analysis framework of Xu Bo’s marriage is wrong 1. Will Boshang make mainland politics more enlightened? Won't I know some returnees from mainland China. This idea of liberal rule of law will take several generations to change. If you look at the Kuomintang government with so many third and fourth generations, you will know that it is not easy. 2. Will Bo be released? Very likely Xi’s power has become smaller now, and Bo Xilai can even dare to surround the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu. Changes in mainland China’s political situation cannot be predicted by desktop reasoning. Bo Guagua got married successfully, and also won over the local factions in Taiwan and Wang Jinping, who controlled half the sky of the Kuomintang. This was a great achievement. I think the Bo faction will take advantage of this situation to rise, and the chances of Bo being released are very high. At the same time, organ transplantation will reach another peak. 3. Impact on Taiwan 3-1. The medical system is in high risk. The Xu family is a large local hospital with sufficient medical information and extensive contacts. When the other side arrives, they will have a clear understanding of Taiwan's medical industry. It will be difficult to prevent someone from getting in from a small place. As long as the Bo School is revived and human specimens are revived, it will happen in the blink of an eye. 3-2. Mainland China’s political atmosphere is likely to become more restrictive. When the time comes and Xi Jinping joins forces to criticize Wen Jiabao and the reformists, the mainland's crimson faction will be able to dominate the world. For the crimson leftists, it will be another century of good times, at least 30-50 years. 3-3, the atmosphere of US-China resistance may be relaxed. The problem with the United States can be solved to some extent by them