Detroit Pistons' Lineup Dilemma: Jalen Duren vs. Isaiah Stewart

[@astrahl]

Stewart’s improvement at the rim this year is worth a deeper discussion. He deserves his praise. Literally a Ben Wallace Lite

[@michaelahurt]

Like Ben Wallace ultra super duper light But his finishing is much improved

[@astrahl]

@ ya I agree with super duper lite but it’s honestly a pretty cool parallel. Similar mentality, height, strength skills etc.

[@KamalAbdulJabbaar]

I use to hate on stew. But he's just not as athletic as Ben Wallace. So its like the effort is there, but he can't make some of the blocks because he is not as athletic

[@rainbowbabyblog5995]

Imagine how good Cade will be in a couple seasons. He’s well on his way to becoming All NBA and a top 10 player.

[@simepoh]

We need fontecchio to start at the 3

[@astrahl]

Durens lack of iQ, and lack of engagement on defense combined with the fact that he has literal bricks for feet is just not gonna cut it man.

[@PPno9]

He's already lost a significant percentage of his athleticism from his rookie year. Idk if he got too heavy or what, but the difference is noticeable.

[@astrahl]

@ ya man. It’s honestly a confusing combination. Like yes his vertical athleticism is legit but outside of that he’s not a great athlete. He’s very heavy footed, can’t stay with guys on perimiter and not quick enough to make a last adjustment near rim to be in the right position to block shots. That’s often overlooked but that’s why he can’t block shots. He’s too heavy footed and can’t get in the right position quick enough

[@michaelahurt]

​@@PPno9 Even from a year ago. Go back and watch the first couple games last year. His lateral movement is a lot worse. He definitely looks like he's going the Embiid, Drummond route rather than keeping that tapered build It's something to watch because while the Bam comps were asinine, he was ability to live in space was way ahead of Stew when they were in college. Of the two, Duren was the one who was thought to be switchable

[@michaelahurt]

​@@astrahl It's not if you really think about it. We tend to look at athleticism as a single data point but it's a collection of micro skills. Specifically the ability to flip your hips -- it makes sense that vertically explosive athletes like Duren, Zion, Ivey, Ja, Dominique, Vince, Blake, DeAndre Jordan, etc. would struggle with opening their hips and bring light on their feet because that explosion comes from the hips and uses completely different muscles than what Jrue or Herb or Caruso do. Guys like Ausar, Amen and MJ who can do everything at the very highest level are the confusing ones honestly.

[@jeramibanks3276]

Power forward is what we need

[@AlexanderBeenGreat]

Duren is clearly underperforming and I think Stewart should start over him. Maybe it well put a battery 🔋 in his back

[@KEVWITHTHESS]

I was saying Duren needs to be traded, the centers we see in this league are much more dynamic and versatile- and I don’t see Duren on that level. Then people call me dumb and saying it’s an L take to want to trade Duren. But the same energy that was applied towards Killian should be applied towards Duren.

[@scottwickett1273]

You're right, he sucks and they should trade him for whatever they can get!

[@KEVWITHTHESS]

@@scottwickett1273 don’t get me wrong I like Duren, but ppl were talking trash about Killian at the one spot, yet nobody keeping that same energy with Duren at the 5 spot

[@scottwickett1273]

​@@KEVWITHTHESS I'm with you! He's bad and I don't want them to pay him.

[@michaelahurt]

The Stew with the starters net rating is _extremely_ misleading because it's all the Philadelphia game. That game alone lowers the Stew plus starters def rating by _7_ and is worth *11* points (!) of net rating because it's _22% of the sample_ !! Since 11/2 (after the first NY game) Duren is +5 with a 114 defense and Stew is -14 with a 131 defensive rating. If you just look at Cade/Ivey/Harris to get a bigger sample... Since 11/2 it's +13 | 106 for Duren -- including the 12/4 Boston game where they got smacked around -- and -16 | 119 for Stew ... For the season it's +3 | 111 in 250 minutes with JD and -4.6 | 113 in 103 with Stew ***** You can't take small samples at face value without understanding the context. And the context is over those first six games Duren was facing the three best offenses in basketball while Stew was playing the _worst_ team in the league.

[@scottwickett1273]

Thanks, I was not aware of that Sixers game comprising such an outsized percentage of that sample. But also if we do this with Cade/Tobi/Hardaway instead of Cade/Tobi/Ivey it tells the exact opposite story, as those three-man groups with another wing (obviously Ivey or Beasley for the most part) are SEVENTEEN points better with Stew than with Duren. (And I acknowledge that the Sixers-game corollary might apply here, too!) Perhaps we are both barking up the wrong tree here, and none of these samples are large enough to be meaningful; I'm gonna continue to go with my eye test given that Stew has a multi-year sample of being a good and helpful defender while Duren is the one who most frequently has me yelling at my TV about him fucking up and/or not trying.

[@michaelahurt]

@scottwickett1273 Cade/Tobi/Hardaway means Beasley instead of Ivey. In Stew's 94 possessions opponents shot 28% from three. In Duren's 83 it's 46%. And we shoot 25% on offense in Duren's minutes. That's a lot of noise. Cade/Ivey/Harris is a good proxy specifically because it removes a lot of the variance. Stew IS a better defender but against starters he's just not talented enough on either end. And Duren IS frustrating, especially against really good and five out offenses. But I'm willing to bet a lot of the times you're yelling at Duren it's because THJ or Tobias screwed up and hung him out to dry. If he had better point-of-attack and help defenders you wouldn't notice him. But no, he's not going to fix it like Stew. That's 100% correct. Stewart can clean up a lot of teammates errors with his switching and motor. It's just not all that effective against the good players. (But super effective against bench units with less firepower.) Whereas Duren's strength, length and athleticism are good enough against 24 teams if the guards do their job 80-90% of the time. And we just don't need to make a decision about how he's going to be against 50 win teams until we're playing them in May.

[@evanroossinck]

If in 2 years Duren doesn’t improve and we didn’t trade him then that would be a disappointment. We should trade Duren now while is value is higher.

[@evanroossinck]

Maybe if we can trade for a nice backup pg and then draft a center in the offseason. I like Liam McNeeley though

[@michaelahurt]

His value isn't that high No contender wants someone who isn't ready to play 20+ playoff minutes No lottery team is going to give you anything good for someone they need to pay. They'd rather draft someone. If anything they'll want you to attach a pick. And all but like 4 teams are set at center. Do you want Nikola Vucevic? Maybe Walker Kessler but if Danny is doing that trade we probably shouldn't. Do you want Mark Williams who doesn't even play? Beasley and Duren for Monte Morris and Josh Okogie? Duren and Moore for Dwight Powell and Spencer Dinwiddie? Duren and Moore for Kobe Bufkin and Cody Zeller? Those are what realistic trades look like James Wiseman was the #2 overall pick and fetched two seconds and a 30 year old 6'2" PF. There just isn't a robust trade market for former lottery picks Keep him, re-sign him, if he pops great, if not he's a backup center on a decent contract. Then you just trade him or Stew with picks and whichever of Holland and Ausar you aren't keeping for your center in 3 years.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@michaelahurt I don't care about the return at all, I just want them to not pay him because it would be Drummond all over again.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@evanroossinck I would take two seconds and nothing else, and happily. They're not going to trade for a backup point guard: they could already have one of those (more than one, really) for free without giving up any assets, and the only reason they don't already have one is because Langdon is tanking so he can keep the pick.

[@michaelahurt]

​@@scottwickett1273 There is a 0.0% chance he's getting a max like Drummond did. ZERO. At most he'd be getting $20m/year. Probably like $54m over 3. By 2028 that's not even 10% of the cap. It's less than Stew makes now.

[@michaelahurt]

The increased turnovers for Duren (and Stew) are a little misleading. Turnovers are up across the league so relative to the league Duren is where he was last year. Which still isn't good. He's in the second percentile in creation adjusted turnover rate. His passer rating is up -- if you watch closely and know what to look for he's making better choices as a passer -- but its subtle and we're definitely in standby mode with him waiting for a leap.

[@gzelambeezy]

Has it ever been considered that Duren's deficiencies on defense are weight related?? Just outright sluggish at times moving laterally. Had a similar thought about Drummond during his stint here but Drummond was heavier and more active than Duren at this stage. I know Duren is listed at 250lbs but the eye test says probably closer to 260 or more. Maybe... Just maybe the answer for Duren is to drop 15-20lbs. Hmmm... 🤔

[@lurking0death]

Minutes are what matter. Starting lineups can be flexible depending on such things as opposing matchups. Pistons may want to experiment with a 3 or 4 guard lineup from time to time, giving shooters the green light to bomb away with the 3 pointers at any time. Warrior ball. Pistons are going to have to get taller in the front line. Right now they cannot compete with tall teams like the Bucks and the Spurs..

[@farrgone]

I would play Alondes Williams

[@scottwickett1273]

Fervently seconded!

[@djgriffin8211]

THJ/Sasser/2nds to BKLN for Schroder/Finney-Smith

[@michaelahurt]

Yeah Brooklyn should want to lose as much as possible and trade both. We have Toronto's 2025 second and no real need to add more young players. Quite honestly that pick alone could be enough given what else is out there.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@michaelahurt The Pistons are tanking, too. There is no reason for them to give up assets for mediocre veterans when Langdon has no assets, needs, more, and is actively trying to ensure that they miss the playoffs this season so he can keep the pick. A contender should trade for those guys, these Pistons should not. This is a very stupid plan.

[@michaelahurt]

@@scottwickett1273 You sure he wants to keep it? The protections on that pick really hamstring his ability to make trades. We have firsts -- we just can't trade them. If you make the trade maybe you get the pick up to 16 or 17 and convey it. Then you can hopefully flip DFS next year to recoup the second you gave up. Or use him in another deal. You could also sign-and-trade Schroeder in July and pick up an asset to facilitate. You could pretty easily add yo your assets _and_ create more flexibility _and_ make yourself better in the short term

[@scottwickett1273]

@@michaelahurt I'm sure he wants to keep it, yes, and the reasons I'm sure are because he didn't hire a backup point guard despite that being the easiest thing to find, and because he also didn't address rim protection. This is still a 65-loss (or thereabouts) catastrofuck of a roster whenever Cade's not playing, and I do definitely believe that's intentional. The main reason I think he wants to keep it is because this is the last GOOD pick he's gonna get....because if they are still a horrible team after two years under his leadership, he's probably on his way out the door at that point.

[@michaelahurt]

@scottwickett1273 Is the 10th pick that good? If he wanted a GOOD pick then why sign Tobias and Beasley? Wouldn't you try to get _another_ top 5 pick and get someone who is legitimately good? Maybe Monte, Tyus and Lowry just didn't want to play for a 14 win team. Also 65 loses is like -9. We're only -4 without Cade. 35 wins with and 30 without.

[@arjaywrld]

Beasley vs THJ as well

[@rickyjuuice4867]

Why did I always assume Omari was like 44??? My bad bro lol

[@cliffcleans]

Sasser has been very good and has improved a lot. He should be playing more.

[@scottwickett1273]

Over who?

[@rafaelt.8650]

Facts

[@astrahl]

A guy like Garland, Pritchard or Coby White would be awesome to add

[@andlerswetpets2434]

Said every NBA GM

[@codyquinn8646]

When we gonna see more Bobbi Klitman and Paul Reed

[@pheralanpathfinder4897]

I'm guessing they will be overly cautious with the Bobi injury since he doesn't have a clear spot in the rotation.

[@cordelldemattei5446]

@@pheralanpathfinder4897how bad can a calf contusion be?

[@DCKRS202]

Sounds like they missing Killian Hayes 😂😂😂

[@scottwickett1273]

You jest, but if they weren't tanking (which they still are) a backup point guard would make a lot of sense!

[@DCKRS202]

@scottwickett1273 It's just funny that the pure point guard Killian was hated on for playmaking and not scoring. Everyone was enamored with Cade, Sasser and Ivey. Now there's no ball movement at all. The guy they needed the most they didn't want 😂.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@DCKRS202 I personally was not enamored with Ivey (who I thought was the wrong pick) nor especially Sasser (who is tiny and old and can't guard you and is completely worthless). And like I said, they're clearly tanking, because otherwise they would already have a backup point guard (Killian or otherwise) because it's the easiest thing to find and Langdon chose not to get one.

[@DCKRS202]

@@scottwickett1273 I agree. I was fine when I thought Cade was gonna be a point forward like Grant Hill. They already had Killian at Point and then drafted Ivey who I feel is a SG ( Cade also). But the more they play Cade at point I feel he's getting better, but he's not bringing the team up with him. I still like him off-ball, he just gets plucked at half court, when smaller guards press him too much for me.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@DCKRS202 I don't think it's fair to blame him for "not bringing the team up with him" when the rest of the team sucks ass. He's a point guard, he's awesome, and he's right on schedule. Langdon has a very difficult job ahead of him cleaning up this mess after the disastrous reign of his predecessor; Weaver was the world's stupidest man and the very worst GM in the history of this sport, so there is still a long road ahead.

[@jamesduhaime3539]

They need another big that can make a few plays to take the pressure off of Cade. We need a legit 7 footer

[@arthursese6068]

Stick where your at and miss the playoffs and keep your draft pick. Maybe see if anyone wants THJ or Duren but that’s about it. Make moves in the offseason, I want Naz Reid. Hopefully get lucky in the draft lottery like the Hawks did last year. Be thankful for the improvement from last year.

[@scottwickett1273]

I am dubious that that will be enough to build a real contender, but anything's possible.

[@arthursese6068]

@ so the alternative would be to go for it and lose your draft pick. You thinking we have the assets to be a contender now seems more dubious

[@scottwickett1273]

@@arthursese6068 That's not what I think: I think the opposite of that. We are in complete agreement, I apologize if that was unclear. I just think it's gonna take even more in terms of asset management beyond just correctly strategizing to deliberately miss the playoffs and thus keep the pick this year.

[@antoniobrown8726]

Nothing we can do, cant trade no one wants to play for Detroit just got be patient yall forgot new coach new GM "hell" its gone be a while GM did the best he could to patch it up we just dont have the personnel

[@rainbowbabyblog5995]

The same argument to not swap THJ and Beasley can be used for Duren and Stew. Why mess with Stew when he’s in his perfect role? I get it, Duren sucks but still, we’d all be complaining that we need a bigger/better starting 5.

[@scottwickett1273]

I wouldn't: Stew is the best option by a very wide margin despite his limitations.

[@michaelahurt]

​​@@scottwickett1273 Then why are Cade/Ivey/Harris lineups more than 7 points better with Duren? Stew is _awesome_ against bench units but against starters those limitations show up in a big way Our way to win games is to hold the fort against the starters and beat their bench with our bench. Also Duren without Cade minutes have been a disaster so I'm not sure how more of that is going to help. If anything Duren should _only_ play with Cade. And Tobias should get more bench minutes with Ivey. But we definitely need to start Beasley until Ausar is ready. Tim shouldn't be in the rotation. Play Ausar and Sasser over him.

[@scottwickett1273]

@@michaelahurt Why are you ignoring the lineups that have all FOUR of the other starters? Because the Cade/Ivey/Harris/Hardaway lineup is still 9 points better when joined by Stew rather than Duren (and is obviously the largest minutes sample). Stew is infinitely better, that's all this is about.

[@michaelahurt]

@@scottwickett1273 Sample size If we just look at Cade-Ivey-Harris-THJ like you suggest... 31% of the Duren possessions are against top 3 offenses (BOS x2, NY w/ KAT and CLE) compared to 6% for Stew. Whereas 22% of Stew's possessions are against _bottom_ three offenses vs 3% for Duren. 22% of the 72 minute sample of Stew with the other four starters is from one game against a terrible opponent (Philly). We are also shooting 51% from three in those minutes. Adding the Beasley minutes -- 96% of it is swapping THJ for Beasley -- does two things. First it increases the sample size to normalize the shooting. Second, it includes two games against bad teams (Toronto and Washington) for Duren to get a better sample since he's the one having to face the good teams' starters, not Stewart. ****** I'm not ignoring anything, but I'm also not pretending it's an apples-to-apples comparison. Playing Boston and playing Philly without Embiid and PG ain't the same f**king thing. You know that. Playing against starters and playing against bench guys isn't the same thing either. Looking at Cade/Ivey/Harris minutes as a total still _dramatically_ favors Stew because of the matchup difficulty, but it's at least _somewhat_ comparable. The THJ minutes are completely unusable as a point of comparison

[@marcorolo4726]

Omari needs to flat out ask JB about this lineup. JB needs to know everyone sees the buffoonery on display

[@MikeyP123]

JB is most likely getting instructed to give the young guys every opportunity possible to see what we have in them.

[@AndrewPolander]

BOBI news??????? The calf from hell?????????

[@AndrewPolander]

Pistons need a stretch big and a point guard for depth....going nowhere until they address this!!! THJ should be totally out of the rotation...don't understand JB!

[@scottwickett1273]

Langdon is deliberately tanking, that's why they don't have those things yet.

[@AndrewPolander]

The only way to change the culture is to win! Try and stay competitive...you can always tank later if things go sideways!

[@scottwickett1273]

No, that won't work. And "culture" always magically solves itself when you stop having so many shitty players on your roster.

[@Blingb87]

Duren no defensive effort,lazy,poor body language can't stay in front of ppl..TIME TO TRADE HIM

[@andlerswetpets2434]

Sadly you are right

[@AndrewPolander]

HEY KU....THJ starting at the 3...is by FAR...the biggest problem!

[@darwinmosley4890]

You guys are nuts 🥜 Durens development should be apparent to everyone … he closing out on jump shooters his ball skills are great and he’s contesting drives to the basket. That boys a stud . His development will improve in the form of a jump shot . Period. This league is littered with piston castoffs some of which are all star.. dumb.

[@ronaldmcdonald1977]

Have you woke up yet? Who are the Piston castoffs that are All Stars?

[@MikeyP123]

Yes there are people on this team capable of dribbling the ball past half court lol. Cade is a good player but let’s not act like he doesn’t commit dumb turnovers bringing the ball up. Letting him set up in the half court is what the pistons should be and what should have been doing this whole time. I think vucevic really helps this pistons squad. The question is what does it take to get him

[@scottwickett1273]

They have to bribe me with picks just to dump his contract, because if the Pistons take him on they would have zero cap space next summer.

[@MikeyP123]

@@scottwickett1273 if we were somehow able to dump Duren I’d be all for it

[@pheralanpathfinder4897]

3&D center Elite scoring PF Veteran PG with solid defense and efficient 3 point shot. If a good 2/3 falls in our lap I'll take it. But this isn't a priority for a team with nany high potential players at those two positions.

[@michaelahurt]

Would work great in 2k ... Basically need to trade Cade for Lauri then get Utah to add enough to stuff to swap for Dennis Schroeder and Jay Huff and hope Huff is the next Hartenstein There are maybe six 3-and-D centers. (Wemby, Chet, JJJ, KP, Turner, Brook, Wendell Carter Jr) and three are completely untouchable, two are unavailable, one is going to retire in a year and WCJ is shooting 18% from three. And Cade has always been better with a roll man because he's a PnR guy Elite scoring PF are All-NBA guys (Giannis, KD, Tatum, Paolo, Lauri, Zion) and maybe MPJ so... Look you aren't wrong but ... Maybe Danny loves Holland? I do think MPJ is gettable though. And the PG ... Conley, Tyus Jones, CP aren't available. Basically Dennis Schroeder then. Maybe Lowry.

[@AndrewPolander]

HEY JB!!!!!!!!!! PAUL REED????????????????????????

[@scottwickett1273]

He should get all of Duren's minutes (and Stew should start), yes.

[@codyquinn8646]

Duren sucks

[@marcorolo4726]

Duren is cheeks. And no. He doesn’t have this great offensive potential lmao. There’s no proof of it anyway so those who say sound silly af

[@lgt2529]

his handles, post moves, his bag has not gotten any better

[@bingo8789]

How old is he

[@shawnlewis4424]

He 21 give me a break like Stewart got a bag gtfo

[@scottwickett1273]

@@shawnlewis4424 But Stew is pretty good, while Duren is horrifically shitty. And they are not THAT far apart in age.

[@shawnlewis4424]

@scottwickett1273 if duren is shitty the so is Stewart

[@AndrewPolander]

Cade is clearly more a 2 than a 1...!

[@michaelahurt]

You can pretend he's whatever position makes you feel good. He's going to have the ball 45% of the time either way

[@rafaelt.8650]

How about our coach bring Sasser in when Cade goes to the bench instead of moving Ivey over to run pg…it has been a disaster….he’s not a pg and you’re taking his aggressiveness away….

[@scottwickett1273]

I mean, Ivey is not a point guard but Sasser REALLY is not a point guard.

[@jamesduhaime3539]

Duren is a 4. Playing him at the 5 is silly unless it's against a small 5.

[@scottwickett1273]

No he's not, and that's the single dumbest thing anyone has ever typed about any topic in human history.

[@michaelahurt]

Maybe in 1988. In 2024 he's a center

[@cordelldemattei5446]

What does Duren do that makes you think he is a 4? Literally, every weakness of Duren’s would be even more highlighted at the 4.

[@SttudDioPierrot]

Get stew outta Detroit

[@pheralanpathfinder4897]

Hard to lose more than 60 games with a good defender like Stew getting minutes.

[@Rizzymsn01]

Please stop watching sports

[@scottwickett1273]

Stew is the second-best player on this team.

[@PPno9]

Try opening your eyes when watching games.