Discussion on upcoming State Assembly Elections in Delhi

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*Transcript of the above discussion* PART - 2 *You talked about certain announcement made by Aam Aadmi Party and in this regard Election Commission in its press conference held today, they also talked about freebies. But they said that their hands are tied. Supreme Court is still hearing a petition in this regard. But they said you know and I would like to quote in this regard, freebies for one can be entitlement for someone else. Do you feel that there is a need to check such sort of announcement or freebies that are announced by political parties especially during the poll season?* I absolutely agree with you. I am not sure what direction the Indian politics is taking. It is indeed a dangerous direction and it is not something that I am saying. It is something that top economists have said, top economic institutions globally have said after looking at you know freebie model. You see there is a thin line between welfare and freebies. So, it is really up to the leaders of the day to strike that fine balance. You cannot cross that line. For instance, you know there are certain schemes which you will have to analyze. Like for example, we have to start demanding from the political parties especially all the voters. There is no harm in saying that we are giving, going to give you this, we are going to give you that. That's the job of the government. For instance, health and education in most part of the western world of the first world is practically free. It's cashless. You go to a hospital, you get free treatment, you come back, education is free. But why is it free? Because the tax base of the countries is very large. A lot of people pay a lot of taxes. For example, if I give you a small example only of Denmark which is the world's most corruption free country, repeatedly voted by Transparency International as the best. 75% is the tax base there. That is the kind of problem. So, what happens is who is going to fund these schemes? Because you don't have taxes to fund these schemes. Your tax base is low. Where are the budgets? How are you raising the budget? So, when you make ambitious announcements like we've seen every party makes, you know, an Aam Aadmi Party has made at least 4-5 major freebie announcements. Where are you going to get the money from? And if the money cannot come from plain sources, you know, which are well documented, then the voter also has a right to know whether, you know, you are going to raise the finances through other means which may not be palatable or which may not be fair. So, where are we going with the freebies? It's all very fine to say that we are going to announce this but then please also give in your manifestos the budgetary model. Where is the money coming from? Where is it going? Like in the union budget we have, you know, these graphics. I think people have a right to know and there will come a time when people will start demanding these things. Welfare, very good. You have to do it. That's your job as the government. But budget, equally important. *You know, political campaigning is very intense in our country when it comes to elections and especially in Delhi. Whenever elections in Delhi are announced, it is even more intense. So, in today's press conference, Election Commission also warned all political parties' leaders that they should be watchful of their language. How do you see Election Commission's assertion in this regard and do you also suggest a line which needs to be followed by political leaders while campaigning?* So, what I feel is the Election Commission needs to come down very heavily on people who are crossing a line whether it is about hate crimes, whether it is about communally sensitive statements or about personally in dignified remarks. If the onus of stopping this is really on the Election Commission, maybe they can ban such people from campaigning. Why not? Of late we have seen that this was sent to even BJP President, Congress President in the Lok Sabha election we saw. So, I wonder if notices alone will help. I feel that the Representation of Peoples Act does give enough powers to the Election Commission to check this kind of behaviour. *There are over 1.5 crore voters who are going to cast their vote in the coming election and of them there are 2 lakh first time voters and women numbers are around perhaps over 72 lakhs. So, do you feel that they will hold a key for these elections, women and the first-time voters?* Yeah, yeah. Absolutely. It's a very heartening sign that women have emerged as a political constituency not just across states but even in the national election. You see party after party now doling out schemes targeted only at women. The first time we saw women turning an election was in Madhya Pradesh in 2023. So, I agree with you women are the swing vote. If they vote en masse for a certain party, that party will obviously have a clear advantage and first-time voters also. *Right. Aditi ji, you explained to us in detail about various aspects related to Delhi polls. Hope people would come out in large numbers on February 5 to vote in this assembly polls.* Thank you so much for talking to us. Thank you. You were listening to a discussion on upcoming state assembly elections in Delhi.

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*Transcript of the above discussion* PART - 1 This is Akashvani. In the program Spotlight, now we bring you a discussion on upcoming state assembly elections in Delhi. The participants are Aditi Tandon, political analyst and Ashwini Srivastav, journalist. Election Commission of India on Tuesday announced schedule for Delhi assembly polls. Election will be held in single phase in all the 70 constituencies of Delhi. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar today held a press conference in Delhi. Let's hear what he said on Delhi elections. It's a single-phase election. Date of notification will be 10th of January, Friday. Last date of making nomination will be 17th of January. Scrutiny on 18th of January, withdrawal 20th. Date of poll is 5th and counting is 8th and 5th again we have very deliberately kept Wednesday. *Aditi ji, counting of votes will be on February 8th. What are the key issues for Delhi assembly polls this time?* You see the biggest issue in Delhi election poll this year will be of course the incumbency issue. You know simply because the Aam Aadmi Party government has been in power now for 3 terms. Let us say 3 terms because in the first term Arvind Kejriwal had a 49 days stint but still you know he was the CM at that time. So, he has had 3 terms as Chief Minister before of course he resigned due to the Delhi excise scam. A fairly good amount of anti-incumbency will be a test. We do not know how this plays out. For the opposition BJP it will be an opportunity to see whether they are in a position to convert this anti-incumbency into a positive vote for themselves. For the Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party of course the biggest issue is whether they can repeat their government. So, I think these are the two big issues. For Aam Aadmi Party which is the main player it is whether they can show it is a pro-incumbency wave. For BJP it is whether they can show it is an anti-incumbency wave against AAP. Congress of course is the third player. I see it currently as not in a position to impact too much of the political landscape of Delhi. But nevertheless, you know Congress is an important player we need to see whether they are in a position to retain some voter base because they have lost a considerable voter base since 2013 when they decided to support Kejriwal. So, this is the broad picture I see. *Do you feel there is a direct contest between AAP and BJP this time?* I will actually agree with you that there is a direct contest between BJP and Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and I will tell you why I feel so. I feel so because you know certain segments that are not seen as sympathetic to BJP for instance voter bases, we should look at communities you know which are the kind of communities that vote for the BJP. Largely we have seen election after election that there is a fair bit of polarization behind one party or the other. All recent trends have indicated that if you go into you know micro analysis of the election data Aam Aadmi Party appeals to almost all sections of society. So, it will be a huge burden on the Congress. You know Congress has to face this challenge of attracting voters. I mean which are the voters that it will attract? Why will the same voters because see they are both parties of the India bloc let's not forget that they are both parties of the opposition India bloc which is ranged against the BJP nationally. So, one doesn't quite understand why they could not have a pre-poll alliance also. Their voter bases are almost the same. So, won't there be a division of votes and if there is a division of votes between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress who will win? But I think voters will vote in order to elect candidates of a particular party and they will vote for a face. The only disadvantage that the BJP I do feel has and a major one is lack of a leader in Delhi. They have decided to go into this election under a collective leadership. See that's largely the model they've practiced in most states but there has always been an understated signaling. *Right. So, Tina that is there is no alternative. So, does this strategy seem to be helping BJP that means to have no face at all?* I don't think having no face at all is an advantage because people like to see who's your leader. So, faces do bring an added advantage because otherwise in that same space where there are other factors at play, everybody is playing. So, what is that X factor you have to appeal to the voter? Voters like to see who will be the leader that will take us forward. What is Arvind Kejriwal's advantage in Delhi? You know he is the face of the party. Like him or not but he is the face of Aam Aadmi Party and they have said it in so many words that he is going to return as Chief Minister even though the current CM is Atishi. Right. We'll talk about this a bit later. *Let us first talk about some of the key issues that concern people or voters at large, at the ground level. People are concerned about the rising issue of pollution, be it air pollution, Yamuna cleanliness, it has been the pole promise of Aam Aadmi Party for long that they would cleanse the Yamuna River but it has not been done. There is an issue of garbage disposal, that is a big issue. Infrastructure, the infrastructure is not at all good in the national capital and especially in the industrial corridors. Do you feel that all these issues which concern people are going to have some impact in the upcoming polls?* What I feel is that issues of the people are constant issues. You know sometimes what happens is these are not new issues. Garbage issue of Delhi is a pressing issue, is an old legacy issue. Air pollution is a legacy issue, it is not as though it has started today. So, what I mean to say is these are issues that have been hanging around us for almost decades. There has been the same problem of lack of good roads, of lack of infrastructure. Air pollution has been an issue throughout. Even in the other terms that Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party won, air pollution was an issue. Delhi has been consistently voted as the most polluted capital city in the world, not today but for many years on end. We have been reporting on that. So, what I feel is these are issues, bread and butter issues of people are important issues but what is this big issue that can swing an election? That is the key question in this Delhi election. So, the BJP will have to come up because you see Aam Aadmi Party has taken some sort of an early advantage by making a slew of promises. So, where does it leave the contenders? So, what I am trying to say is freebie-based welfare model so far seems to have worked for Arvind Kejriwal. Will other issues trump that model in this election? I can't say, maybe because it depends on whether people have had enough of Arvind Kejriwal or they are willing to give him another chance because he does have genuine accusations from the BJP of corruption. BJP constantly is accusing him of corruption and now his former Delhi CM residence Shish Mahal has become an issue. *Right and as you rightly mentioned there have been a lot of allegations against AAP leaders. Some have gone behind the bars, some still are, some are out on bail. Do you feel that somewhere AAP image has been dented? Do you feel that it is going to have some role in this election?* I think that is the biggest, you have really brought out the most important moot point which is facing Aam Aadmi Party. You see this is a party that was born out of the womb of anti-corruption movement of Anna Hazare. They came into existence demanding the Jan Lokpal Bill. You know they used to go to town accusing other people and alleging that other party leaders are corrupt. Now your own, most of the top leadership is out on bail. You are yourself; you know Arvind Kejriwal out on bail and of course Arvind Kejriwal has taken a view point that I am going to return to the CM's chair only if I pass the test in the court of the people. So, he has played that emotional chord. But I do agree with you that this party which came into existence with the role model of a Kattar Emandar party is today being accused by its rivals both Congress and BJP on the basis of a series of charges its leaders are facing in the Delhi excise scam and that I am sure will somewhere impact the voter psyche. But will it impact the voter psyche enough to upstage and you know oust Arvind Kejriwal? I am not sure and we will have to wait and watch because a similar situation in Jharkhand did not work to the disadvantage of Hemant Soren. He faced also the corruption charges. He also went to jail. He resigned as CM. He also came back and took the CM's chair. So, you know you don't know whether these things, how people react to these things. I think this particular election will tell us whether corruption is actually an issue in Indian elections or not because in Jharkhand corruption charges against Hemant Soren didn't stick. Will they stick against Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi? We have to wait and watch.