ASML Is CRASHING And I'm BUYING! | HUGE Upside! | ASML Stock Analysis! |

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In this video we will analyse ASML stock using our 4 valuations methods to get to our intrinsic value. We will then apply a margin of safety to get to our acceptable buy price.
We will also take a look at the dividend safety and other key financial metrics. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
I am not a financial advisor or licensed professional. Nothing I say or produce on KZbin or anywhere else, should be considered as advice. All content is for educational purposes only. I am not responsible for any financial losses or gains. Invest and trade at your own risk.

[@DividendTalks]

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[@pietheinbakker5157]

How did you come to a FCF growth rate of 30%? Its pretty high considering the FCF cagr over the past 10 years is 12.46%.

[@Chrissers2010]

ASML is a truly UNIQUE player in the semiconductor industry and essential for the development of AI. You can't make the most advanced chips without ASML's equipment.

[@DividendTalks]

Exactly that!

[@noname-yt7sk]

@@Chrissers2010 actualy monopolist

[@Nvidia-Lover]

@@noname-yt7sk The only absolute monopolist in semi

[@TheBooban]

Nobody cares about AI when there is a recession.

[@ilovecats748]

The risk is foreign firms getting ahold of its intellectual property, if that happens ASML will have to watch as its technology gets used in countries where it has no legal recourse. ASML is in a very unique position and because of that already it is one of the largest corporate espionage targets in the planet

[@testpilot.]

I work at asml and would say dont worry to much we are near some breakthroughs, i can't tell you what for legal reasons but as a humble 25 year old engineer i would buy

[@nicolas357]

Bedankt!

[@benjamineprg4249]

It's essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.

[@benjamineprg4249]

Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging.

[@Sanchyfab]

Vanguard VTI. You can count on a net 9% with a reasonable standard deviation of 15 to 17%. Start early, be consistent and the miracle of compound growth will take over. Use time as the real basis of growth...it takes about 5 years.

[@Sanchyfab]

I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Save your cash for when the market actually shows sign of recovery

[@V.stones]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skills and knowledge

[@V.stones]

Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.

[@misterz3478]

Load the bags guys, it’s gonna be helluva ride till January 🎉

[@d-sto687]

think future projections not correct. Problem is the US ban selling to China... That hit ASML huge.. My Fair value is around 680 USD. ASML still litte bit Cyclical.

[@fuhishva]

Great moat company. I think they will beat the market over the next decade, so I will start DCA into this one.

[@DividendTalks]

This is also my thinking too 😊

[@thetraveldiaries999]

What is DCA?

[@DividendTalks]

@@thetraveldiaries999dollar cost averaging, meaning to invest in portions over time 😊

[@broalx39]

Why I bought and will continue if the stock continues to fall: seasonality! October 18 to December 10 (last 25 years): 21 gains 4 losses Average gain: 14.84%

[@romant8596]

Lam Research (LRCX) is a good buy now too! Down 10% because of ASML

[@DividendTalks]

The whole sector has suffered and there are definitely lots of good opportunities! 😊

[@romant8596]

@@DividendTalks Yes. Wait for TSMC's earnings report on Thursday in Taiwan. Like Jensen Huang said, the demand is insane, plus building a safe and secure supply chain excluding China is in every free country's interest; it's a gradual process.

[@iangantner6976]

You may be correct, but ASML order numbers are seen as a proxy for general chip demand. Falling sales numbers in China may be the tip of the iceberg. The exuberance of the chip sector may have been overinflated to make a 10% drop quite rational. With that said, I’d already be buying ASML, but the hefty price per share makes my DCA strategy too costly to use. I’ll have to wait, but I will be looking into LRCX… thanks for the heads up

[@avnitkohli5316]

Thanks for sharing.. i bought both of them

[@mihaiichim8073]

Is the divident safe with LRCX?

[@Capuarox]

I don’t comment very often, but I must say your videos are outstanding! Keep up The good work!

[@DividendTalks]

Thank you my friend, I really appreciate the support and always happy to hear the content is enjoyed! 😊

[@돈차]

Please dont buy if you read the report. Net booking declined by half. You will get your money more than halved if you buy this dip.

[@patrick8128]

No comment about this??? Orders collapsed.

[@diogof94]

For me it's still overvalued after this dip, the stock is still priced as if the company were growing cash flows at 20+% per year which was never the case with such a capex intensive industry. Even paying a premium p/fcf of 40 and using a mean fcf of the last 3 years and no margin of safety puts my fair value at around $550. And I write this as someone who really admires the company and their tech and would love to own the stock, but as they say you're meant to make money, not marry the stock

[@striperkid]

I picked up (2) more shares of ASML, (23) NVDA, and (10) AVGO.

[@PajeroLad]

Have been waiting for this since the markets opened, thanks for the video!

[@DividendTalks]

Hope you enjoy it! 😊

[@weho_brian]

ridiculously stupid drop, i added more

[@marcelusifonlaja5567]

Same with pleasure 💖💖💖

[@Startrance85]

140-145$ drop is crazy, people are overreacting as usual.

[@AnthonyLauder]

A major issue for ASML is that last month (September 2024) the government in the Netherlands, where ASML is based, introduced export restrictions on ASML, so they have to apply for licenses to export some of their machines. This, ASML says, will be a huge restriction on their ability to sell machines in the future.

[@romans1450]

@@AnthonyLauderoverheid wil alleen geld zien komt goed

[@Trans-Felix]

​@@AnthonyLauderbased on pressure of mister america

[@anthonydentice8180]

​@@AnthonyLauder Why would they put a restriction on that? Makes no sense

[@RizzyComputers]

I exit out of asml after seeing the sharp decline as I had $50k invested with a purchase price of 806 and sold at 835 before it continue trending down. I am curious to know if it’s worth investing that money once again to ASML. I was hella bullish for 2025 but does not look good short term. I

[@malukuboy88]

invest it is 40% down.

[@GreekTar]

Easy buy!!

[@fitbh703]

Thoughts on just going long Smh. Too many semi picks to choose from.

[@DividendTalks]

This is definitely a good option to consider! 😊

[@stevenbond4637]

The ROIC on this thing has been 40 or 50% over the last few years, Jesus that's phenomenal. Down about 35% from highs. Forward PE down to 27 or so from 40. Probably not bad at this price, got to a PE down near 20 a couple of years back before a 150% rally, so I'm dipping my toes in and hoping my small position drops about 20-25%. I think that'd be good enough to make it a top ten position. Could set this one aside for a decade and it be grand.

[@Vug6r]

Which site is that?

[@UMoederProductions]

First one is Simply Safe Dividends and second one is Seeking Alpha

[@R1D1CK69]

Should we wait fot TSMC earnings or hop right away with those prices?

[@mistermcluvin2425]

Me too, I bought 500 shares today. I think all of this is fake news to just drive down their stock prices. Let's go bulls. We can put a bottom under this stock and squeeze it back up.

[@CK-1000]

A true baller 💰

[@JohnSmith-qk1gb]

Looking smart today

[@JTang21]

lol fake news.. how it literally says on their earnings report

[@mistermcluvin2425]

Yeah, slighty more down today but no worries.

[@coreyai2441]

Very nice discount. Bought the dip

[@AnthonyLauder]

A major issue for ASML is that last month (September 2024) the government in the Netherlands, where ASML is based, introduced export restrictions on ASML, so they have to apply for licenses to export some of their machines. This, ASML says, will be a huge restriction on their ability to sell machines in the future.

[@TheBooban]

Its not a huge restriction as no country except China matters and they could triple ASML sales but we knew China was blocked for years now.

[@Mrmoneymaker311]

@@TheBooban China accounted for 50% of their sales this year lol

[@noname-yt7sk]

Thanks, Bought 5 x at 750$ 😮

[@brianrivera7889]

I'm buying at 500

[@hawexlastofhisname9949]

Its not going tk go that low ​@brianrivera7889

[@noname-yt7sk]

@@brianrivera7889 how do you explain this price? Will you wait for Current PE of 25, also when the price is at 1000 $ and the sales are above 50 bln$ p.a.?

[@matthewallman3500]

I know right?! This is a fire sale!!! I'm DCA on this one and hope it keeps dropping, wow!! Let's fkn gooooo!!!!

[@eaglepink1678]

@@brianrivera7889 rots o ruck!

[@kosseilat.891]

Great job 👏, I bought some today

[@DividendTalks]

Amazing! 💪 🔥

[@romans1450]

No brainer buy

[@DividendTalks]

Looks good at these levels for sure 😊

[@JuanMONTOYA-jv8pl]

​@@DividendTalks Time to check fundamentals and get ready to buy 🎉🎉

[@adarshgmani]

Buying , Thank you for the video.

[@DividendTalks]

You are very welcome my friend 😊

[@GreekTar]

Is there any difference between the European ASML, and the American one? As far as I know is the same.

[@DividendTalks]

It’s the same, just traded on different exchanges and therefore you would experience difference foreign currency fluctuations. Whether it’s in euros or dollars 😊

[@filipsevcik4902]

@@DividendTalksexactly, I was writing the same thing and then deleted coz you answered!

[@foodietraveler]

Now $690 pre market

[@marcelusifonlaja5567]

Im hand over fist on ASML currently

[@dirkdevries537]

upside is not 54%when the instrinsic value is 1579 and MV is 730

[@fitbh703]

40% down is a spot to consider… 670s and 615

[@m-2157]

currently at 633, worth it?

[@striperkid]

The stock market loves to overreact. It's a good thing because that's when stocks go on sale.

[@ValueCreator-i6g]

Q3 was bad, yes. Half last quarter and half ASML its own expectations. Guideline 2025 -12,5%. However, Q3 2023 was lower, so compared to that it’s not half as bad as it looks. Slightly worried ASML was now inconsistent with their guidelines, as they normally underpromise and overdeliver. Still, with a discount from its ATH of nearly 37% it’s definitely a first buy the dip scenario.

[@geolykos]

Bought ASML and LRCX. Still dropping today of course but I don’t really mind. Will keep buying every month if it keeps dropping

[@robertballa855]

NVDA ceo recently claimed insane demand for their chips. 😮 didn’t help ASML

[@michaelphillips6991]

NVDA is still up a lot the past couple weeks.

[@BakedNoodle99]

Thoughts on MGTX investment for long term. Very recently announced phase 3 of parkinsons disease treatment, currently at $5.33.

[@MarkFreemanYVR]

Has anyone examine Canon’s attempts to move into ASMLs business? Doesn’t seem to be much reporting. Heard about it as a toss away comment from a portfolio manager.

[@uncomplicatedi]

Canon is a small player already and is developing a completely different process that is unproven

[@rizwan4794]

600 i ll start if we get their.

[@michaelknight8459]

They beat earning for the quarter, there still making profits its not a bad company. Next years growth only half what was excepted hurts. There growth next year still with half is still more growth than this year. So they should make more profits in 2025 than in 2024. Its trading at 702 the low for the entire year. I might add a little more, I think the market over reacted on this bad news.

[@Mrmoneymaker311]

Their PE ratio says otherwise tho.

[@dunggg]

The sell off is an overreaction showing that wallstreet traders are just like wallstreet bets.

[@syedarmaghanhassan4652]

Yeah but no effect on NVIDIA. Nvidia's earnings keep growing!

[@JJ-el9hl]

I won't buy now, will wait until $650

[@DavidNorden]

Never buy a falling knife !

[@gangaramhariparsad3946]

great content!

[@DividendTalks]

Thank you my friend 😊

[@helloken]

Unpopular opinion here, I think it's overvalued still...but hey, just a random guy on the internet. I guess we all have different opinions, we'll find out who was right many years down the line...great company though with a powerful moat or so it seems...

[@aKiSeraphic]

Everything is overvalued and priced in on the stock market, everyone is buying the future yet unable to tell the exact future.

[@LKTN170]

Don’t catch the falling knife

[@striperkid]

Yeah, they said that to me with PLTR when it plunged to $7. I caught that falling knife and added a boatload.

[@LKTN170]

@@striperkid Did you buy ASML today???? then do it

[@ValueCreator-i6g]

Just buy the dip

[@LKTN170]

@@ValueCreator-i6g genius and brilliant

[@TheBigShort11]

short right now

[@derekwillstard3613]

Overcorrection, yes, but let’s look at the crude reality guys: it’s a fact that ASML stock price is now lower than it was in 2021. 3 years lost. This is a good stock for trading but I doubt it’s good for long time investment.

[@OndřejRolník]

The overhyped AI years.