Does Eurovision Scoreboard predict the Televote Qualifiers? Eurovision 2023

[@amphioctopusfangsiao]

hardest working eurofan youtuber on this site fr

[@ESCTom]

haha thank you🙏🏻. the editing for this took 6 hours cos i made 22 separate graphics for it☠️, youll see them in the middle of the vid 😊

[@amphioctopusfangsiao]

@@ESCTom jesus, well done, i probably wouldve given up after the first one

[@MalenaCPH]

@@ESCTom love the great videos you make Tom!

[@djmscott1977]

Absolutely, Tom is just the best out there, so entertaining and informative, Go Tom, top class stuff again ❤

[@deadzoo]

The James Brown of esc youtubers *brings out cape*

[@tigerww]

I am so happy that you are actually using number and statistics to make your analisis and stating your points! Way too many youtubers (and others) are just giving us their opinions without substantiating their analisis with actual numbers! This makes your videos so much more interesting to watch! Regards from a eurovision-nerd in Norway

[@ESCTom]

Thank you tigerww 🥰🇳🇴

[@jovangonzales]

Thank you, Tom. You are really my go-to guy this ESC season. I love seeing those notifications that you've got a new video! I always love your analysis. I don't know how you have the time to do all this! Also, let's make Telelove happen. Like fetch.

[@ESCTom]

Thanks Jovan 🥰

[@theunpopular7869]

I absolutely love these Analysis videos. that's what makes your channel one of my favorite Eurovision channels on KZbin 👏

[@ESCTom]

Thank you ❤️

[@Lucian86]

The reason why fandom and actual televoters seem to converge with time might be because more people are voting hence the sample is more representative

[@Vhmvd]

It’s funny how I had a lecture about biostatistics and sampling, and this comment made a lot of sense 😂

[@ristoravela652]

That too, but also I would assume that over time it starts to include more casual fans, who better represent the average ESC voters.

[@antonioplasencia6701]

Shouldn't it be the other way round?

[@Lucian86]

@@antonioplasencia6701 the more people vote, the larger the sample size hence the more accurate the predictions are

[@martaschaper]

The BEST Eurovision KZbinr! ❤ we can’t wait for all the videos coming!

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Marta 🥰

[@ESCTom]

I mean - thank you Marta AND husband 😂

[@petritutka]

A thing to keep in mind is that rankings for previous years were influenced by the live shows

[@ESCTom]

yea as i mention towards the end of the video, these scoreboards are taken at a moment of time when people had seen and heard about the rehearsals. its hard to tell how many people would have gone back and changed their rankings after seeing the live performance

[@adas9848]

Some people still go back and reran but I assume not many.

[@CasualUmami]

@@adas9848 I believe the app programmer will answer if you ask him

[@johnmoynahan874]

Omg!! Totally in your element Tom and I'm here for it!! Watch your theories implode in Liverpool!! 🤣🤣

[@jeffo5976]

What a fantastic statistical analysis. Absolutely like your responses to Eurovision. Intelligent, precise and entertaining. It's a credit to you. Thank you (from Australia) for the work and effort you put in.

[@ESCTom]

Thanks Jeffo 🙏🏻

[@anapaulacameron2438]

Australia has two good contributors this year - both Voyage and Andrew Lambrou have a great chance to be in the final. Fingers crossed you renew your contract with ESC for another couple of decades.

[@jeffo5976]

@@anapaulacameron2438 Thank you ana for your response to my comment. Appreciate it! I also hope Australia's contract is renewed. Geographically not part of Europe but culturally we have people from all Eurovision participating nations living in Australia, hence the popularity of the contest here. Cheers

[@deanbarney]

Love this type of deep dive number crunch. Thanks for the graft Tom. Confirmed much of my assumptions but didn't realise the stats would be so clear

[@BodyAndSol96]

Very interesting video! Looking forward to the upcoming ones

[@Saturinus]

I love how Tom is geeking out with graphs and everything. 😄

[@kvakk]

I downloaded the app a while ago, and I’ve had the same question in my head. I haven’t watched this video yet, but from my quick observations scores from the app does give some pretty clear indications. Good news for me as a Norwegian hoping for a top 5 for Alessandra, and VERY promising for Finland. Moldova last year definitely got more tele vote than scoreboard love, I hope Portugal can experience the same this year.

[@kvakk]

Oops this was only for semis. Guess I should fork out some money so I can see the full results

[@Moiaija]

Se oli tonnin seteli

[@Rafaelinux]

Thanks Tom for putting numbers to my mental analysis! It confirms my suspicions and findings

[@AlirioAguero2]

Thanks, Tom. This was interesting. As a part of the fandom, I always knew that many have an inclination towards female bops. In fact, all mainstream upbeat pop songs performed by women had over 6.00 average on Wiwibloggs Jury ever since 2016. I'm actually interested in whether Blanka will break that mold. It's like that meme with a guy being nervous on which of the two buttons to press. On one hand, a beautiful woman delivering a catchy songs can't be rated low, but on the other, the dislike of the fandom is so large that rating Blanka high can be seen as a unheard of. I'm just watching in silence. The genre *especially* underrated by the fandom is country-pop. The Common Linnets, Douwe Bob, Victor Crone, Rosa Linn, Stefan, Systur, even Mans Zelmerlow have all done much better in the contest than the fandom assumed they would before the show. At this point, I have no idea how people are still calling country songs ''uncompetitive'' despite multiple evidence to the contrary. Sure, Rosa and Systur, for example, didn't shatter records with their results, but they easily qualified, despite fans claiming they wouldn't. Douwe Bob and Stefan finished on the left side of the scoreboard, despite commonly being placed around 20th place on most fan-based lists. I'm not even touching how The Common Linnets surpassed every prediction before that. I'm boldly claiming this - If Poland had picked Dominik Dudek for ESC 2023, they would have finished in top 5 of the televoting in their semi.

[@ESCTom]

haha thats an interesting fact about the Wiwi jury. and thats quite a small sample size though, i think theres usually around 20 of them. great point about country-pop, that is quite a lot of songs that were underrated. I actually thought that Dominik was going to win their NF btw

[@paalnordahl]

You are a statistics beast. And I love you for it!!

[@ESCTom]

haha thank you Paal 😂

[@malevich92]

Tom this is why you’re the best Eurovision related KZbinr out there. The research we get from you is amazing!

[@ESCTom]

thank you Malevich 🥰

[@beandrag9019]

Yessss the stats you love to see it

[@garryd7748]

You can’t really say that the televote overrates or underrates a song. The televote has to be the baseline because that’s what is being scored….. it’s only the fandom that can overrate or underrate a song compared to the final result

[@Tollkirschenkind]

Ryan O'Shaughnessy is still in my "everyday" playlist, I love his song! Damn underrated! Also thanks for validating my feeling that the bubble really overhypes female bopsongs, I'm going more with the general televote here

[@willardprenfrew4303]

Your recent analysis videos have been so interesting and this was no exception! 💚💙💜

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Willard, much appreciated 🙏🏻

[@ssanti66]

Wow, this was really impressive. I just began following you this year, you've become my favorite Esc youtuber, together with TPA. Very entertaining

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Santi 🥰

[@e_la_cumbia_della_noia]

Tom, you are my favourite ESC KZbinr❤ Great analysis as always, loving it! I've started following Eurovision again since 2021 after a long break and noticed that Eurofans indeed tend to overhype "yaassss queen slay" types of songs😅 like I didn't get Adrenalina and El Diablo hype at all back then. Can't wait to see how it's gonna be this year!

[@ESCTom]

Thanks Anastasija 🥰 Yea I like these "slay queen" songs as well 😂, but im also aware of the fact that the general public doesnt really like them as much. So every year some of the fandom have this huge hype for them and they often fall flat

[@eurotwink9740]

Anyone else here to try and reinforce hope that Latvia might qualify? 👀

[@TheManInBlueFlames]

That's interesting. I was expecting to see some more of the 2019-2022 songs from smaller nations, particularly Austria 2022! I actually went ahead and downloaded 'Run With the Lions' a year ago or so when I heard from other channels about 'songs that were robbed!'

[@mattloveseurovision3907]

Great video Tom - always love these analyses that you do and appreciate the time taken in the research! Definitely concur with your conclusions - I think additionally, it shows the lack of diaspora vote in the app vs how concentrated diaspora voting can sometimes be in semi-final. You might sometimes get a situation where you get several diaspora countries in one semi that can really boost a result (whereas the app is voted for by any country, not just the televoting countries in that semi-final). Also made me wonder, it would be fascinating to see what the app results would be if they just used people's 12 points - the app and the televote already closely align but I suspect that the correlation between televoting and people's 12 points could be even closer. Wonder if we could ever persuade the app's owners to offer that view/data?! :)

[@ESCTom]

Yeah looking at the 12 points only would be a more precise way in actually comparing to what the Televote is. I don't think the creators would share that with me tho, I have already been in contact with them about some other things and i think theyre just trying to keep things nice and simple 😊 But yeah you're right about the diaspora thing, I forgot to mention that in the video. I also noticed how the community don't do disapora in the same way, maybe different diasporas are in action

[@AmaanStorm]

The My Eurovision app is great, but the thing with the app is that the votes are easy to manipulate. They aren't a reality of the ACTUAL love for the song. The results are skewed because a lot of people will put their own country high up in the rankings. This is part of the reason why theres such a disparity in placements in the actual Semi's and the app. I do enjoy the shock when a song that's overrated on the app, bombs in the Semi's! Sounds awful, but I feel that we need it to remind us that once the general public are involved through the televote, things get unpredictable :)

[@ESCTom]

Yea we don’t want things to get too predictable. I hope we never get to the point where we “crack the code” and know who will qualify. I still think there are plenty of shocks every year tho. One of my favourite things about the show

[@johnny11415]

Probably as time goes by the difference will be less as streaming of the songs increase and people have time to listen to them before the show and are probably decided, unless there is a bad performance. It would be interesting to know what percentage of voters are first listeners or fans as you say, great work !

[@ESCTom]

I would assume that there’s a greater percentage of fans watching the semis than the final, but I don’t know how we could confirm that

[@12281760]

Hi Tom, I wanted to add a bit of info to your analysis and say that Amenia gained a few points because it was recently released on streaming platforms (Spotify, Apple Music, etc.) so it gave more people a chance to listen to her song. Nice analysis!

[@choerryscockroach5641]

12:07 you're so right! i think this is the most noticeable with serbia like every year they are guaranteed to get 8-12 points from croatia, montenegro, n. macedonia, slovenia, austria and switzerland and a couple of points from germany, sweden and france too. imo that's probably the main reason why serbia has one of the best qualification records (only 3 Nqs since their debut in 2007, and everytime they Nqed, they were 11th)

[@espotpod]

Tom: the app is just for fun it's not supposed to be taken seriously Also Tom: proceeds to seriously analyze the app results No shade intended. Very interesting video.

[@ESCTom]

😅

[@Shellydaliie]

Fair play to ya Tom, youve put so much work into it and its fascinating to see. I knew of the fandoms tendencies to favour girly bops but I do think its interesting to see that the televote generally shows the lads more appreciation but also it doesnt seem to be as fixated on genre, like the songs you mentioned were mostly different genres which I find interesting (also love telelove 😂) I need to go back and check but this year I feel like theres not that many girl bops overall (I can think of about 4). I think this year could be quite interesting seeing as we have a lot more bands than usual. I feel like in 2022 or 2021 or at least a recent edition we had very few bands so it is fairly unusual to have so many this year, (mostly lads too so I wonder if the taking each others points like we often mention with girly pop will happen again and if theres a trend in which of those bands do better like target audience, genre etc). Looking forward to seeing the rehearsals.

[@ESCTom]

Actually funny enough we have one less band than last year, it's just of that the bands this year a lot more rocky and male. Someone did a very interesting article about it ( im sorry, i cant find it 😭) where she analysed why people have this perception of there being more bands and it's slightly due to there being more female ones last year like Reddi from Denmark and sister from Iceland. Youre right that there are less girl bops this year, so that could help them if they are rarer than normal

[@ValS1111]

I would love that you can make predictions according to the voting paterns, ussually neighbouring countries or diaspora countries voting, example- Nordic countries, Ex yugoslavia countries and their diaspora in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and (recently) Ireland, then Greace, Cypar, Malta...... Because that would be genuine correct predictions, its not just song quality.

[@Werderina]

Tom, you are always providing such interesting insights! 🌺 I never thought of differences between ESC fans and „normal“ televoters…. but you made them obvious! I consider myself a fan of Eurovision but a quite normal person at the same time… 😂 Sure I am not part of any fandom „bubble“ and I wouldn’t like to be because I feel there is too much hype / exaggeration on the one hand or pure neglect on the other. I don’t like any of this so I stay where I am with my tiny channel and am going to vote for my (even unpopular) favourits. 😊

[@ESCTom]

haha thats the best way to do it. just vote for who you love 🥰

[@Werderina]

@@ESCTom 🥰

[@tappytoeclaws2233]

THIS IS THE DATA NEED CONTENT I AM HERE FOR

[@TalloMiz]

Can you maybe do a video of your personal favorite from each year? I’m talking about way back like the 70s or earlier till today

[@ESCTom]

hey Talushey, yea thats a great idea. I will probably do something like that in the off season though, because its hard to come up with idea after May, whereas now im currently working on 13 different videos 😅

[@debsiduracel]

I hope that people also think of how to elevate the interest of ESC : Do we want "the Eurovision like it has always been" (boring&predictable) , or do we want to highlight something unexpected that we'll remember? I cannot understand the hype around Sweden (Euphoria vol.2 even though Loreen has 1 of the amazing female voices in ESC history), but those standing out to be remembered, for me, are Israel, Finland, Spain, Norway & Iceland.

[@ESCTom]

i think if the producers are smart, they will modernise the jury criteria to keep the contest modern and interesting

[@Lucian86]

Very interesting. Thanks for the content. It would be amazing to know who the fandom is.. that would answer some questions.

[@ESCTom]

Yeah I thought about asking the app creators if they would show that, but there's no way that they would because it would break confidentiality

[@carl-johanfougstedt199]

Isn´t the Eurovision Scoreboard basically televoters giving jury votes? Could you do a video where you compare Eurovision Scoreboard results to jury votes? This is one of my favorite You Tube channels. Keep up with your good work!

[@ESCTom]

Thanks Carl, yes youre correct, the scoring system on the app is actually more similar to the jury. I can look around and see if there is a possible video that i could do

[@carl-johanfougstedt199]

@@ESCTom Looking forward to it!

[@beandrag9019]

In the next Eurovision lull, you should make videos on the streaming numbers of the songs from this year and last year or something. That would be interesting

[@ESCTom]

Funnily enough I'm releasing a Twitter update video tomorrow and someone on Twitter actually covered that so I do a short commentary about it

[@esclad]

I'm guessing you're either a maths teacher or accountant Tom ;) They are the only people I know who love spreadsheets. And fascinating insight.

[@ESCTom]

haha close, im a physiotherapist

[@beandrag9019]

I think a lot of more basic songs can be rated higher on the scoreboard because you HAVE to give out 12-1 points so if you only like three songs, then the most inoffensive stuff will probably be getting more points. Which results in them flopping in actual Eurovision compared to the scoreboard

[@ESCTom]

Yeah that's very true. I wonder if that's one of the reasons that Denmark got so many points in 2017. Maybe it just the case that she picked up a ton of 1-6 points cos she was very middle of the road

[@lillecathrine]

I kinda knew what the results of this would be before watching. Very curious to see how this year plays out. Swedens new staging will be the deciding factor I think - as the song itself isn't that memorable. Which could impact especially the juries for them.

[@ESCTom]

yep if theyve had to change her staging a lot, i reckon we'll see a rapid drop in her odds

[@tanktheplayer4275]

I think It’s going to be a close race with the televote, which obivously will be Sweden, Finland and Norway. It’s hard to tell exactly now tho. We will have to wait for the semi’s to get a better anylayse of how the televote will be. And of course there is a huge amount of casual viewers as well, that we can’t really say much about, that will be in the final.

[@ESCTom]

well even the Semis dont really give us any clues, cos we dont know if Norway qualified in 1st or 10th. In this video Im going into how similar the fan voting is compared to the actual televote results in the semis.

[@tanktheplayer4275]

@@ESCTom Yeah, that’s right

[@zsokapados5197]

I don't think top three for Norway is that obvious. I can see Austria or Israel getting that instead of Norway.

[@tanktheplayer4275]

@@zsokapados5197 Mabey Israel, Austria might flop

[@hurmur9528]

@@zsokapados5197 I agree. I am not sure of Norway at all. It can flop.

[@bleukreuz]

I remember some of the artist that you mentioned did not sing very well live, for example Jana Burceska and Benny Cristo

[@cherrycolouredshades]

i love to hear all the time that the battle for the trophy is still very open at least between them 2, i love this optimism; another note is that although a general agreement can be observed, the app never predicted the whole pack of 10, so we might lose at least one of them :))

[@ESCTom]

im not even gaslighting myself, i genuinely think its open. ive been gaslit so much in the past, like 2017 for Italy and 2022 for Italy, that ive seen before this pattern of massive hype that doesnt materialise

[@nian60]

Stat fest. 🤓 Very interesting analysis. Thank you. 😊 So maybe Malta and Belgium will qualify then, if the trend continues this year. And maybe we will get a fun winner. 😃

[@ESCTom]

lol those are the two main countries who ive been thinking to move into my QF recently. I saw that Malta came 1st out of all 37 in Lukeovision's public poll!!!

[@nian60]

@@ESCTom Yes I saw that too. Malta will attract casual voters. 🙂

[@christianj5950]

One thing I see a lot from fans is these temporally locked attitudes, meaning fans tend to underrate songs that were released early or they've heard "too many times." For Czechia, Norway and Ukraine especially. And for songs that are "overplayed" that also means Tattoo/Sweden, but this will not matter for people listening for the first time. Which is most people. Another thing I see is people defending songs they initially didn't care for as "growers." But this also will not matter for most people at Eurovision. You might've decided Latvia was actually in your top 10 after fifty listens and getting bored of all the big favorites, but that really doesn't matter. If a song doesn't immediately STAND OUT on the night itself, as a first impression, then it will not do that well.

[@saradale3901]

I think you're onto something with the televoters having a bigger affinity for men and the Eurovision fandom having a bigger affinity for women (at least comparatively to each other). This may probably be due to the fact that the hardcore eurofans consist largely out of women and gay men and that is the demographic that usually votes for girl bops. Whereas the televoters and casual Eurovision watchers are probably balanced with equal distributions of men and women, gay and straight. I think it's similar to the phenomenon that when you want to write a successful book, the main character should be male because men tend to read only books with male main characters, while women read books with both male and female characters. Obviously these are generalizations and there are exceptions. Also I just think that the people in the Eurovision fandom all tend to have the same music taste whereas among the casual watchers/televoters there are more people with diverse music tastes hence why the Black Mamba did so much better in the televote. This is just not the type of music eurofans seem to like whereas a broader audience would probably recognize that that was a great song and performance because there will also be people in the audience that like this type of music. Also staging, live vocals/performance, and running order will have a bigger effect on the televoters that the eurofans who probably have been listening to the songs for several months at the time of the live show and made up their mind who to vote for. Obviously they might still change their mind during the live performances but I still think that they are less likely inföuenced by running order and staging because they already know the songs.

[@sarahenchanted]

See I don't think Loreen winning is a sure thing (it's very possible but idt it's the same level as Euphoria) because of the current voting system vs the one in 2012 being very different. Sweden hasn't been a televote powerhouse (as in not getting top 3) in recent years and that could easily be the same case this year. I do think the app also probably skews to a younger and more social media savvy demographic which says a lot imo.

[@lanamagdic692]

Hi! Vote for number 7 and this beautiful young boys from LET 3 and their masterprice song called MAMA ŠČ! They are sooo funny! 🌹🚜🚀7️⃣😎 They will bring gold tractor so be ready for the party!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@dra900nka1n]

Tom: the app isn't meant to be taken seriously Video: how seriously can we take the app

[@ESCTom]

😅

[@candomomma9215]

There’s no way you’re not an engineer…Love from USA!

[@sixtiessyl]

Great analysis! I think Israel, Armenia and Czechia are somgs that won't do as well as the community thinks they will...and, hopefully, Loreen won't win either :)

[@ESCTom]

😈😅

[@marxton_]

15:00 I think it's no doubt Finland will win the televote-only sf. But with the odds with sweden having twice more chances of winning overall than finland is reasonable bc although Finland could have more televotes than Sweden in the final, it will not do well with the juries for sure, or at least will most likely not be enough to surpass Sweden, who is both a potential top jury and a likely one of the top televotes too. The 'overhyping of pop girlies' likely only applies on televotes but not with the juries. Just a theory of why the bettors would still go for Sweden way over Finland.

[@ESCTom]

i dunno, noone has convinced me that Sweden can do well in the televote. They havent been top 5 in the televote since 2015, and they havent had a SINGLE 12 points from a non nordic country since 2015! thats a crazy statistic

[@annikastonefieldt7941]

i was just listening, doing something in the kitchen, when: Victor Krum?!?! :DDD

[@ESCTom]

Oh lol I can’t remember why I mentioned Viktor Krum 😂

[@annikastonefieldt7941]

@@ESCTom naaaah, you didn't. I was a shody listener. You talked about Victor Crone :D 10:52 :D

[@Drag_on_king]

Sorry, I have to ask, but until this year I always just casually watched the final (if that). I thought Jacques Houdex was at ESC earlier, furthermore if I search for Croatia 2022 it is not his song I find. I just wondered because it's a song I notice and still love when it comes up.

[@ESCTom]

sorry that was a typo, he was in 2017 - heres the link kzbin.info/www/bejne/aoTckpJ9ft2mrZI

[@Drag_on_king]

Thank you.

[@JIinuX]

this is actually bad news for Portugal, and Israel and good news for Latvia, Malta, Serbia, and Switzerland

[@ESCTom]

I think Portugal is ok, she is quite an unusual and special entry. I dont think she will be grouped in as a basic pop girl by the general public

[@irene6119]

I only have the free version, so based on the overall scores, could it be that Norway, Austria, UK and Israel will end up a lot lower (and Sweden won't necessarily win), and in turn Italy, Moldova, Ukraine, Belgium and Switzerland will be higher? Seems likely to me. (Latvia is also in midway of the list but honestly I see it as a eurofan favourite)

[@EmoBearRights]

I agree with you about Together. Yes to the LGBT+ friendly staging too.

[@casperrkjr5512]

Impressive work! Do you think that "world votes" will have some influence on these trends? Or perhaps create new trends?

[@ESCTom]

At this point I have no idea. As we don’t even know which countries are eligible yet and how many times people can vote 🗳

[@EuroDai]

Great analysis Tom, but I do feel the results are a bit skewed as you are looking at the points as they stand in 2023. Is there a way you can get a retrospective vote form the App? I have the app, but I have only had it 3 or 4 years, so all my results for years pre-2018 say, I have filled in subsequently and so my scores are from a modern prospective looking back. I am pretty loyal to my feelings, so songs don't tend to wane in my eyes as the years go by. However, I've noticed a lot of people tend to like to be seen to vote like the main-stream (especially where the winner is concerned), so as I say, the results could be a little skewed. Also, as the fandom has a large LGBTQ+ following, it is easy to see why the girly-up-tempo songs are favoured.

[@ESCTom]

haha I did actually have a note addressing this in the original edit of this video, but I edited it out because I was trying to make the video shorter. Yes it's definitely possible that people went back in time to retrospectively change their votes, but I just assumed that this was a very tiny small minority of people because I just think most people wouldn't care enough to bother with that. Also if they were going to change them, I would imagine they would change them in favour of who actually qualified

[@sullivan__]

Do we know for sure that Loreen needs to change her staging? I didn’t think that was confirmed.

[@ESCTom]

Yea you can’t hang anything from the ceiling in Liverpool

[@e_la_cumbia_della_noia]

Loreen had an AMA on reddit yesterday where she said that they finalized her staging for Liverpool and "she hopes it will inspire us". So I guess it will look different

[@beandrag9019]

The queen, president of the world👑 Monika liu is too sophisticated to be girl pop💅

[@Mucrush]

I love how much work you put into these videos Tom~ Also just a note: Fyr & Flamme from 2021 wasn't LGBT, although their appearence might have given that impression (SILVER AND PINK). But I am sure they both were LGBT supporters tho!

[@ESCTom]

oh wow sorry for that. i was sure that someone told me that they were and that the lead singer bought some Danish gay icons jacket that he was wearing it in the performance?

[@Mucrush]

@@ESCTom As far as I know they are both straight. They both have girlfriends (and Laurits have two children). Again, probably huge LGBT supporters!

[@dasmysteryman12]

Hey Tom, completely off-topic but I've seen you wear a lot of rugby shirts in your vids. Are you a rugby fan? If so, do you think Ireland has way more chances to do well in this year's Rugby World Cup than in Eurovision? Haha

[@ESCTom]

Yeah I worked in rugby for around six years Sofology a lot when I was working on it, not so much now. lol we're always going to do better in the rugby, we're very high ranked in the world rankings in it 🏆

[@seanmcmichael2551]

Interesting..... I wonder will someone like Italy do better than I imagine.

[@LeafHuntress]

Dear Tom. Could you perhaps shelve the terms girly bop & girly song? You did use boys a couple of times to describe the men as well. But we’re talking about the Adult ESC here, not juniorvision.(grecce23 notwithstanding) Please consider my request, your viewership gets bigger as you have found a niche as the ESC statistics guy. As such you’re “an influencer”, yeah weird, i know. If you want to leave a nice review about Irish contributions to ESC, hear me out: Ireland historical reactions. ;-)

[@ESCTom]

Hi Leaf, yea i can look into that. Tbh, the term Girly is very common in the Eurovision Twitter community and in the comments here too. Ive always thought that it has positive connotations, like for me it's very affectionate and adoring. like these ladies are awesome and we worship them. Im not sure if it has different connotations in Dutch? as using boy and girl is common in UK and Ireland. eg on the X Factor here the categories are called "Boys" and "Girls", even though the contestants are in their 20s. the reason i use "girl" more than "boy" is because of shows like Drag Race where Girl has become an affectionate greeting.

[@hannahm6497]

Just to point out fans WILL change their rankings retrospectively if they were wrong.

[@ESCTom]

the only way to know was if you took the rankings before and after the semi aired. 7/10 of the fan songs didnt qualify so that would suggest that not many people dont go back and change their rankins

[@bbubbinklm4320]

Wait why was Denmark rated second on the app?? I remember everyone moaning about it at the time hahahaha

[@ESCTom]

Lol I know. I was so surprised but then I had it in fourth so I registered the scores and pushed her into second 😂 I didn’t even remember that I liked it

[@bbubbinklm4320]

@@ESCTom I mean to be fair I haven’t listened to it since 2017 and I can remember the chorus still so couldn’t have been as bad as I remember 😂

[@bbubbinklm4320]

@@ESCTom I just went and looked back at the semi and it was a very weak semi. I only truly liked 6 songs out of 18 so no wonder Denmark was that high

[@patrickmackin2941]

Sometimes the fandom over hype one song and it does hurt other songs getting to the final it will probably happen this year again

[@anapaulacameron2438]

I wonder if the difference might come from the fact that the ESC community has a strong clubbing, LGBT component. That might explain a penchant for divas and girly bops. I'd back Cyprus as a dark horse this year for a few reasons: the artist is a handsome bloke who might woo the female voters, the song is super radio friendly and it might get some love from his fellow Aussies.

[@jojoelio5537]

Easy, most of the people who use the apps are gay men and women so they tend to overrate pop girls. The televote just vote for the most entertaining entries, not based on someone else's gender and apparently, most of the fun entries are of male singers.

[@eoghandowney537]

We have never had a year where the Jury has outdone the televote. That could occur. If so, Loreen will probably win. It will be a lot than the bookies suggest.

[@tanktheplayer4275]

Yeah, we had that sitoution in 2015, so probably could happen this year too.

[@АлексейЗаботкин-т1х]

Dated grandma doesn't have a chance

[@belosevickris3379]

I don't know about fans, and why they like pop girls, but I am thinking that boys are favored by televote because likely there are more women watching Esc than men. Average men are more likely to watch sports contests while women are more likely to watch song contests, generally speaking. If women and gay men dominate the televote, then it's totally understandable why boys are favored.

[@beandrag9019]

Yeah I love tattoo but if not for the jury I don’t think she would have a chance of winning

[@lighthouse620]

I love Serhat

[@caruusel]

personally I think female singers do a little more poorly in the televote because most do safer songs like ballads and as a big televote fan I think the weirder, more out there songs perform better in that regard Exactly why I'm sure that even though a lot of people rank croatia relatively low that they will get a good result

[@inesvbm1]

I think its mainly because before SF we judge all songs in different ways: NF live with low budget, NF live with high budget, videoclips without live performances… they are often not super comparable and some differences might be normal. There could be a bias between men and female but it would also be interesting to see those results compared with men / women ratio in each semi final. Idk. Are there always same amount of men and women?

[@tomas8155]

What that let's po po mean?

[@ESCTom]

its the lyric from austria's song

[@leoschenk2466]

Are you trying on a new hairstyle, Tom? Or do you have an appointment with the barber soon?? Asking for a friend. 😜😅✂#telelove

[@ESCTom]

lol you and my mum are in a tug of war. she likes it long and you like it short. Honestly, I just havent found a good barber in Dublin yet 😅

[@leoschenk2466]

@@ESCTom haha...mums are like that.

[@bbubbinklm4320]

6:42 it means half of the fandom are gays (myself included) with very predictable tastes 😂😂

[@ESCTom]

😅

[@frilansar]

Link to app, please

[@ESCTom]

just search My Eurovision Scoreboard on the app store

[@cstiles1579]

Before I even watch this the answer is no (source: Austria and Albania last year).

[@rumenok]

well...they were 9th and 11th on televoting, pretty close

[@thisispebe]

no it doesnt

[@ESCTom]

85% of the time it does

[@АлексейЗаботкин-т1х]

considering that people who see songs for the first time and twinks from that meaningless app doesnt have anything in common is a good thing, not predictable results is what makes eurovision interesting

[@Seva4774]

У вас очень плохой и испорченный вкус.