Does Ukraine even need another big offensive in 2024?

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Video tries to answer whether Ukraine needs to try going for another big offensive in 2024.
Will it go for it? Should it try going for it? Why might it want to wait? Why might it not be able to wait? The video tries to cover all those questions. Plus what’s needed for its success, the chances that Ukraine will get all that’s needed for a 2024 offensive, and the option for a long game war, in case the offensive is not in the cards.
00:00 intro
01:48 The variables
04:24 Fortifications?
05:34 Equipment means artillery
08:26 Control of the skies
10:31 A rushed offensive
11:41 What if 2024 is skipped?
14:16 Future plans
Music by Matija Malatestinic www.malatestinic.com
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[@Binkov]

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[@Dima_Barnaul]

Binkov you need go driving in Russia! or no only Moscov

[@arnijulian6241]

Ukraine should never have attempted an offensive as they don't have the means to clear mines or trenches. NATO & Ukraine command is treating this like combination of middle east insurgence & Bosnian war prior when this is a conventional war by Russia. It is to bad that any one that was in the Korean war in the early 1950's is likely not alive today like my grandfather or my great grand father from ww2 as these fvck up's are text book. Treating tanks like war elephants & cavalry for NATO allied forces or on parade for Russian initially is ridiculous for a start. People have forgotten the logistics & methods to fighting conventional war & the equipment required for industrial warfare. This is not insurgency or skirmishing & yet the methods used treat it as such from the west. A surgical method is not required but brute force & bulk. Poor all resources into Ukraine with enough munitions to lay waste or get out for the choice is simple. These military corporations & corrupt politicians are only making matters worse with stroking of palms & general indecision were most crucial. Ukraine is not my war as an Englishmen but the west should get out or commit completely. Not this 1/2 & 1/2 nonsense as it shows weakness to the globe while achieving little of worth costing young men's life's!

[@Mae-nr7wr]

binkov cope grounds

[@tusk3260]

Oh and for anyone that claims the Russians want to end the war quickly, here is what Putin said the China's leader. He expects the war to last another 5 years MINIMUM. Sorry to break your hopes, but this clearly shows the Russians have no intention to end the war soon. Or rather, the Russians are quite happy with how the war is currently ongoing.

[@tusk3260]

@@arnijulian6241 Nice comment tho i'll try answering you: NATO actually was fully committed, the problem lies in the tech, industry and propaganda. Let me explain, first the western propaganda has gotten so bad that the majority of westerners now are convinced that everything western is extremely high tech or is the best in the world while everything Russia has is outdated "rust buckets" this propaganda is the primary reason why the West underestimated Russia and overestimated themselves. Second, most western tech (especially American tech) is actually far behind Russian tech as even as late as 2010 American tanks still required its tank shells to be reloaded by hand from INSIDE the crew compartment. This means the loader takes a shell from the ammo storage, arms the shell inside crew compartment before loading, if the loader drops the shell after arming it? BOOM everybody in the tank dies. Thats how bad the M1A2 Abrams are. They just started adding auto loaders copied from 50 year old Soviet tanks. When Ukraine got those tanks, they quickly realized how bad they actually are as they get destroyed in one hit and so started using them as mobile rearguard artillery instead of as frontline tanks. Another factor is the western propaganda made westerners believe the Russians are launching those incompetent human attack waves likes zombies armed with guns. In reality the Russians are slowly and carefully advancing. Trying to take every bit over hight ground to increase the firing range of their artillery and prioritizing attacking from cover and before assaulting any strong point they sure they firmly control 3 sides of the city of stronghold. But unlike popular beliefs, the Russians do not want to completely surround a city. Because when they did that in Syria, their enemy would keep fighting for much longer because they were trapped in a corner. The Syrian stalemate only ended when they opened up a 60km wide corridor to allow the enemy to flee. The city of Avdeevka is a great example of this, the Russians could have easily surrounded the city, but chose not to. Because its easier to take over cities when the enemy has a clear path to retreat through. This also allows civilians to flee the combat zone, thus reducing civilian casualties. If the Russians fought like in WW2, the civilian deaths would look like whats happening in Israel right now and be in the millions. But its still only in the thousands because the Russians are only tanking the South, North and East. Leaving the West wide open. This is also why despite the war, Russia is still fairly liked by the international community whereas Israel is becoming more and more hated.

[@kylanwalters37]

Some of you in the comments really need to exercise looking at a situation objectively and not just letting your hopes and dreams run wild.

[@highjumpstudios2384]

My hopes and dreams are all I've got though...

[@smithdog4770]

@@highjumpstudios2384 And I have to tell people that their comments are just hopes and dreams, otherwise my hopes and dreams are dead.

[@eckhardt76]

Maybe you should tell that the Ukrainians defending their country against a fascist regime. If they had your mindset they would have already lost two years ago.

[@nathanielacton3768]

I think that is conscription rises, your hopes and dreams would be just to go home and no longer read the news and some stinking war in some far away country. I suggest you find out why you are attached to this outcome to that degree. I'm impartial. I know Russian's and Ukrainian's. Both are good people. Both of the agree that their political systems are hopelessly corrupt. The Ukrainian mate hopes for a quick loss or a quick victory. Either way quick, because he is not sacrificing his teen son to this stupid war to keep the old corrupt politicians in power. The choices are: Current = Corrupt + half a million dead and growing. Russian Puppet = Corrupt + killing stops. Your hopes and dreams sit only in that table above. There are no other options. None. You character is displayed based on which one you pick. I pick peace.

[@Pinkhairedkilla]

​@@highjumpstudios2384 :(

[@Superintendent8814]

I'll never understand this comment section, you have people saying he's simping for Putin, you have people saying he's simping for Ukraine. Which one is it?

[@pinkpanther8427]

Yes

[@piperjj4486]

That's the million dollar question.

[@lolno7252]

So he's probably in the right

[@johnadams7402]

How about he's giving an opinion. One derived by considering the known and what's possible.

[@Alex-lm1cj]

Ukranian bots vs Russian bots. FIGHT!

[@Tsuppi1970]

How about african bot?

[@niume7468]

Slava Ukraini !

[@themouthofsauron6926]

GUYS!! We've got a neutral bot hurr.

[@inkeldinky]

this is another russian bot tactic, guess the two parties are the same, he says.

[@Markfr0mCanada]

False equivalence is a common tactic of propagandists.

[@ballgang367]

How the fuck are they gonna do an offensive without air superiority?

[@yudhiadhyatmikosiswono9082]

In every offensive Ukraine is also need more manpower , supply and equipment. Something that Ukraine lack. Russia already taste what kind of Ukraine summer offensive 2023 so they already prepare a lot of defensive line with anti air and artillery.

[@verilyveronica8430]

They are getting F-16s . The F-16 is a better weapons platform than anything the Russians possess. It beat the New Gen fighters in Dogfights. This upset the American Generals.

[@comradekenobi6908]

They'll call UFOs from Alpha centauri 🤷‍♂️

[@Nick-wh4jt]

They can’t

[@xHiMom]

Without air superiority and without surprise factor. The mfs promoted the offensive like a fking movie.

[@MrFalut]

"2024 is not crucial" Tell me this this war is a stalemate without telling me this war is a stalemate.

[@stormelemental13]

You don't seem to understand what a stalemate is. Both Ukraine and Russia are burning through equipment faster than it can be replaced. This is attrition, not stalemate. Whoever runs out last will be enabled to conduct maneuver operations. That is the nature of war between industrialized peers. Periods of movement, followed by attrition, followed by movement.

[@horstnietzsche1923]

​@@stormelemental13stalemates generally involve attrition that is often how stalemates eventually end if peace isn't made or something like assistance from an outside power doesn't break the stalemate.

[@Krom5072]

@@stormelemental13 Except the last period of movement (where the results would be visible without zooming the map to the level of individual villages) was 1,5 years ago.

[@Ravi9A]

cope@@stormelemental13

[@alek9195]

@@horstnietzsche1923 Not necessary. If one side is far more powerful.

[@MichaelElfial]

The problem of propaganda is if continues too long the propagandists start to believe it

[@AlexanderUnit-731]

Fake News have overrun the Western world.

[@finnthunder6542]

But do you?

[@jamielondon6436]

Good video! Small point on language: "All bets are off the table" is a mix of two phrases: - All bets are off. = No one can predict the outcome. (probably what you meant) - XYZ is off the table. = This is not an issue / may/will not be discussed.

[@akrupnov]

Binkov: "You can choose a real county to play". Also Binkov: Plays as Poland in WW1

[@limedickandrew6016]

There was no such country as Poland in WWI.

[@looinrims]

It’s probably like Call of War where some maps are broken up, like in one the USSR is broken into like 8 countries on the Europe 22 map

[@shanerooney7288]

Is Yugoslavia a real country?

[@johntowers1213]

can you point to it on a map?@@shanerooney7288

[@akrupnov]

I guess the objective is to interest people from counties formed post WW1. Nobody would be interested in playing for a handful of empires. Except for citizens of what remained of their metropoles

[@jasonsessler5383]

This war will be one by the side who develops the ability to attack in bad weather. With the number of drones, cameras and listening devices on the modern battlefield the ability for surprise has been largely eliminated. This means the ideal conditions for attack are now conditions that drones can operate and video and audio have reduced visibility. Since the start of this war everyone has treated the weather as if it's still the 1700's. In reality militaries who can advance through bad weather have a tactical advantage. D-Day, took place during a huge series of storms. The second invasion of Iraq occurred in a sandstorm.. Russias counterstrike at Stalingrad in the middle of winter. A summer attack in beautiful weather is now the wrong time to conduct operations.

[@TileBitan]

Agree but winter is not that bad of a time to attack. Worst are autumn and spring

[@Idonthaveanythingtodo]

True.

[@banana6837]

@@TileBitana Russian winter yes especially when it goes from -20 to -40 in a day

[@aleluia01]

@@banana6837 sure, but no one is attacking Russia. Southern Ukraine is a less colder than around Moscow or former city of Stalingrad

[@TileBitan]

@@banana6837 frozen ground is (much) better than mud for tanks. The negative temps affect the soldiers but they affect both attackers and defenders. Tanks are more useful in attacks so muddy conditions are specially bad in offensives, get it?

[@thiefsleef6752]

Let me put it this way, Russia sent dozens of columns towards Avdiivka which is a small town and didn’t manage to breakthrough or encircle it until after a couple of months, what makes people think that if Ukraine were to send armored columns towards Russian defences they would be able to push Russia out of the occupied territories within a couple of months? After Ukraines counter offensive was officially declared as a failure, western military officials and advisors have been quiet, and this is probably because they KNOW that it will be simply impossible to kick Russia out of the occupied territories. As you said, if Trump is elected, Ukraine is in trouble, if Ukraines next offensive fails, more countries will be hesitant on sending more aid and it will have a huge impact on troop morale and a lot of people will try to leave the country to avoid the draft which is already happening

[@duskokukolj5571]

😂😂😂.Jedne petine Ukrajine nema,prijatelju.O čemu ti pričaš?Jel ti zaista misliš da i h Rusi ne mogu pregaziti ?Znaš li ti šta bi to značilo?Koliko bi nevinih civila i dijece stradalo?Nisu Rusi kao Izraelci ili Amerikanci da ostavljaju za sobom sprženu zemlju i stotine hiljada pobijenih civila i dijece!Ako rat dugo potraje Ukrajina kao država više neće postojati.EU i Amerika sa novcem i oružjem kojeg šalju Ukrajincima samo odmažu a ne pomažu.Jedini spas im je da sa Rusima sjednu za stol i dogovore mir!Inače im slijedi propast!!!

[@Tonyx.yt.]

avdivka its the most fortified city in the world right now btw, in their spring, the summer, then fall offensive, nafo bots aka uknazi advanced AT best in robotyne reaching but not crossing the FIRST line of defense after months of fights and very heavy casualties. anyone thinking they can successfully have a breakthrough is stupid or delusional at this point

[@DutchVilla]

Great delivery of information.

[@Trucky21]

Everyone's repeating that summer 20223's UA offensive was a FAILURE... It is not because it is not a complete SUCCESS that it is a failure. We are talking about the russian army here, not a poor thrird world's random bunch of nobodies... although, Z army is kinda like this ;)

[@karstenseterbakken3617]

yes it is a failure because they didnt accomplished the goal of getting melitopol and cut crimea off mainland and eventually retake it as they announced it in March 2023.

[@drdeadred851]

My man, I have no horse in this race, but if an offensive takes little to no land while expending a lot of needed equipment, munitions and men, what else could it honestly be called but a failure. You can say the same for Russian offensives, at this point its pretty clear that any outcome of this will have been a failure by Russia more than a victory, hanging onto a chunk of Ukraine when the goal was to pretty much puppet it while having monstrously embarrassed themselves and lost vast numbers of equipment is clearly a failure. Just because you can point to some mild silver lining doesnt change the reality of what you wanted to do, intended to do and then actually achieved.

[@jballaviator]

@@drdeadred851 It looked more like a probing operation than a true counteroffensive. Western armchair generals are the real driving factor in that b.s. story. You chads just can't admit Ukraine is fighting better than the Russia (or the US for that matter) ever could.

[@berserkerpride]

Dieppe in WW2 was also a probing attack. Nobody is coping and trying to say that was anything other than a failure.@@jballaviator

[@PatRiarchy-qw6cp]

​@@jballaviator a "probing attack"? Is that the latest cope because even Zaluzhny didn't call it that

[@funkmonkeyfun]

This video couldn’t have been further off what is actually happening on the ground.

[@ChrisWalker-fq7kf]

I think Putin would be happy from a territorial point of view to just keep what he has taken. But his problem is that this leaves the rest of Ukraine strongly western-aligned and heading for eventual NATO membership. That's his nightmare. I think he will want to see if the decline in western supplies of weapons allows Russia to take more territory this year and also hope for a Trump victory in November that might cut off US supplies to Ukraine for years. He doesn't expect to occupy all of Ukraine but wants any ceasefire to be from a position of Russian strength whereby Ukraine accepts under duress rather than see the rest of their country slowly swallowed up by Russia. Then he can dictate the terms.

[@CrniWuk]

It's interesting to think about that for Putin a totally collapsing Ukraine is just as frightening as a Ukraine that winns back all its teritories.

[@flightofthejellyfish]

I can't see any solution either, at Istanbul the Russians were willing to settle for no new territory just Crimea, an independent Donbas and a promise of neutrality. But objectives change and an intransigent Ukraine makes the situation impossible. The Ukrainians are making it really hard for the Russians just to accept a promise of neutrality, in a few years they'd just be facing another NATO build up in Ukraine with a revamped NATO MIC. The pressure to just keep pushing in to take ever more of Ukraine must be extremely high.

[@Liberty_or_Ded]

Trump's never said he intends to cut off supplies to Ukraine, only money. He's never stated what his intentions for bringing the war to an end are. People who think Trump is Putin's buddy forget the amount of absolute hell Trump caused Putin in Syria, and how he spent his time in office warning West Europe to get off of Russian gas and to stop funding Russia's regime through its gas purchases.

[@sunwukong5518]

​@@Liberty_or_DedTrump is stupid that is why he is unpredictable. The Chinese are also not sure what to think of him. Since on the one hand he made statements about not wanting to defend taiwan because "they took our semi conductor business" but on the other hand he did some trade war shit

[@bobfruit7400]

They will likely also take oddesa, kharkov region and possibly kiev. essentially everything historically russian without reservation. Then ontop of that they will likely expand the military occupied buffer zone from there to account for the maximum range weapons ukraine possesses. This might not happen if there is a total capitulation from ukraine, and looking at the true state of ukraine today, such a possibility seems inevitable. Either way, things will be and are much worse for ukraine in terms of a potential settlement then they were march last year at the istanbul agreements. That boat has clearly sailed.

[@seraphx26]

Whether Ukraine needs another offensive is a theoretical question, the relevant issue is that Ukraine doesn't have the man power to put another offensive together.

[@flexiblebirdchannel]

Ukraine has 10 million man to fight, and while russia may send 25 mio more, they will have a problem mobilizing and send only 400000.

[@Tonyx.yt.]

with women, kids and 70 yrs old men im sure they can assemble a new army

[@seraphx26]

@@flexiblebirdchannel Ukraine has nothing like 10 million soldiers left for combat, that is pure fantasy that you are conjuring up, the Ukrainians today have less than 200,000 combat effective troops left that it cannot afford to throw away. This is taking into account that a good number of that 200,000 are in their 40's and 50's I guess if you want to count women you could scrounge up a million and I don't doubt that the criminal clown Zelensky would feed them into the meat grinder but it changes nothing about the outcome, Russia was always going to win this war the only people who doubted it are people who were taken in by propaganda.

[@Scottx125Productions]

"Large offensives aren't working" into "Ukraine needs another large offensive". Bruh...

[@1to6for6]

This moron lacks all credibility. And uses a Russian persona to top it all off while shutting on Russia shamelessly

[@rti7743]

What We found out in 2023 is that it is impossible to break through the entrenched and mined positions without air superiority. I think that the Western camp is doing the foolish policy of sequential introduction of forces in fear of nuclear intimidation. In order to win, it is necessary to have enough equipment to be able to win.

[@deltaxcd]

western camt ha no such equipment , and in the end of tis war NATO may be left with naked ass in front or russia which will be armed to teeth.

[@christineshotton824]

Without air superiority this will never be anything other than a meat grinder.

[@CrassSpektakel]

Something is amiss. I am very sure the official numbers are bullshit, because: The single company of Rheinmetall stated in its official share holder reports they are going to produce 700.000 155mm shells in 2024. We are talking about 700.000 shells BY ONE SINGLE COMPANY. Currently they are at 1000 shells per day but will increase production over time until the end of the year to 5000 (!!!) per day. Which means Rheinmetall alone will produce nearly TWO MILLION shells in 2025. And we are only talking about Rheinmetall, for sure other factories will increase production roughly the same. Is Russia being played by western fake news?

[@abbx022]

Well ... there soldiers on the front line will not be who are getting shells dropped on them, but I don't see what propaganda advantage there is for the West by telling everyone they don't have enough shells

[@Zealot2024]

I doubt it. The previous rate was based on the market during a relatively peaceful period. Given theyve had plenty of time to increase their production capabilities and there is high demand for artillery shells, Rheinmetall probably isn't bluffing.

[@CrassSpektakel]

@@Zealot2024 I read in a German Newspaper that Rheinmetall produced less than 50.000 shells in 2019 and 70.000 in 2021. So we are facing an increase of nearly 4000% in six years with most of it happening in in the single year of 2024. I am humbly surprised, as most Germans I always considered our military complex being underwhelming and now the German Arms Industry is going to outpace even the US industry.

[@Zealot2024]

@@CrassSpektakel 1000 x 366 (leap year) = 366,000. 700,000/366,000=1.91=191% increase (less than double their peacetime output)

[@CrassSpektakel]

@@Zealot2024 As I stated the production is increasing from 2000 in early 2024 to 5000 in late 2024 and those 5000 will be pretty much standard during 2025. Currently Rheinmetall does not plan to expand its production beyond this because they are running low on qualified and trained workers and can't train much faster. But then... nearly two milliion shells per year, I guess that should do the trick as long as other nations also increase production like that.

[@-r-495]

I wonder what impact the GLSDB will have. They obviously didn’t get to the best start but that was to be expected with the boosters and interfacing is not trivial. On the other hand: It is the mass that likely will make a big difference as soon as the validation procedures have been worked through a few times and the worker „getting the knick“. The investment is set and the UK and the other JEF members are united.

[@hkmp5kpdw]

it’s a game of attrition. They should have been playing defense from the beginning...

[@Idonthaveanythingtodo]

Rus needs to be playing defense while Ukraine doesn't have any other option than to go to the offensive

[@Mae-nr7wr]

according to binkov copegrounds the counter offensive was having success, until it was impossible to deny it was a failure anymore. so thanks to ppl like himself, they helped demoralize ukraine even more when the real news broke

[@correctionguy7632]

@@Mae-nr7wr If the summer counteroffensive was a failure then I wonder what you would call the russians offensive on avdiivka. Which acheived even less in terms of territory while losing a lot more equipment.

[@bedwettersince77]

@@correctionguy7632 "bahkmut"

[@correctionguy7632]

@@bedwettersince77 Another example of where the russians traded unfavorably.

[@basilmcdonnell9807]

"Strategic brilliance without tactical superiority is useless." -Ludendorff The Ukrainians seem to have realized that tactical offensive action is impossible in the presence of modern drones, mines, and artillery. Unless and until that changes offensive action is irresponsible.

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

And Russia refuses to accept this, they continue to attack and get destroyed by drones

[@Krom5072]

Honestly I don't think we should expect any notable changes in 2024

[@jballaviator]

Im betting on a western push across the Dnieper but that's only because they've focused hard on destroying anti air in that sector. Coming close to gaining air superiority in that region with no air power to utilize it yet.

[@PatRiarchy-qw6cp]

Ukraine is trying to recruit women to fight on the front lines. Let that sink in. They are in serious trouble over the next few months, especially once the weather warms up and the mud dries out

[@masteryourkitchen-areyouga7237]

@@PatRiarchy-qw6cp well welcome to the new world where women can do the same thing as men ...

[@JayRappa]

Excellent video that thoroughly explains it by numbers. Aid wont be offered forever

[@Africanhorror]

Maybe they shouldn't advertise their offensive and direction of attack next time

[@anotherbacklog]

They already did. Just no trailer yet.

[@tethryss5001]

The cope of fascists in the comments is hilarious.

[@HoshizakiYoshimasa]

Which side? It's an overused word. The Russians call the Ukrainsins fascists. The Ukrainian side calls Russia Fascists. Western Leftists call anyone who disagrees with their political religion Fascists.

[@tethryss5001]

@@HoshizakiYoshimasa If you cannot discern who are the fascists then jesus christ you need help. Obviously the invading force dying by the 10s of thousands for the chest thumping brain dead dictator in the Kremlin are the fascists. The ones who have committed atrocities on foreign soil and the ones who use their military rockets and drones not to attack military infrastructure but hospitals and schools.

[@yaz2928]

Good video

[@JohnnyWishbone85]

5:14 -- Also, regarding Ukraine's fortifications, an instructive analogy to castles in medieval Europe may be drawn. A very important, though often-forgotten fact about castles is that although they are *tactically* defensive, they are strategically **OFFENSIVE**, because they can serve as the headquarters and logistical support center for campaigns. So fortified defenses serve the very important function of supporting and enabling offensive activity.

[@user-vb8dk5rr3s]

When a fool fools himself and think he's fooling someone,he is living in a mountain of fools

[@jaakkokorhonen]

That's inadequate analysis to only count shells fired when portions of the rounds actually hitting something are so low.

[@jtf2dan]

true...90% of russian shells, rockets and missiles take out nothing, while each of Ukraine takes out russian equipment....it is how ukraine wins by attrition.

[@thespalek1]

Binkov, master of smooth ad transitions. 😂❤

[@Pinkhairedkilla]

Ever heard of oversimplified?

[@Komet3ify]

I agree with your points that 2024 is not the time for an offensive but a time to build the defense industry. Production and logistics wins wars. If Ukraine can become self reliant with building in house equipment, the idea of the west dragging their feet wouldn’t be as scary. Even the Frankenstein program can evolve into the west going suppling older equipment with their plans but to modernize and mass produce . Not only mobilizing everyone in the war but boost the economy so instead of providing equipments just raw materials and parts to lower costs. This is going to be a long war. (Unless for some reason Putin loses the election or nukes Ukraine) Might as well use the ultimate weapon, capitalism. As well the minor offenses in smaller gains is the way to go instead of huge offensive. Focus more on smaller places instead of spreading everything out. You can defend with less troops and still go on the offensive in important areas like Avdiivka or scramble them in Bakhmut. I do pray for the soldiers on both sides that this will end soon.

[@Jay-om8gr]

😂😂😂

[@orzorzelski1142]

>If Ukraine can become self reliant with building in house equipment It takes years and a ton of money, so what you're writing is a wet dream at best.

[@comradekenobi6908]

How tf are they gonna be sleeping reliant when Russia missiles rain daily?

[@Komet3ify]

@@orzorzelski1142 True, but it already has been 3 threes and despite sanctions Russia has been building up their defense industry as well. Boosting production in house, while keeping the use of 3rd party equipment on the cheaper side. Hence the use of North Korea shells and the Shahed drones from Iran being cheap. Even looking back on WW2, America didn’t only came out the Great Depression but was able to out produce the axis powers. Within 1 year we were dominating the Pacific Theatre. Even the Brits with their back against the wall couldn’t get any help with equipment made the spitfire and was able to hold until America joined in the war. Plus war is the mother of invention, from WW1 to the end of WW2 we saw tanks, submarines, aircraft carriers, jets, and ways to counter them in a short amount of time. So despite it sounding crazy history proves it is possible.

[@Komet3ify]

@@comradekenobi6908 Look up the ho chi Ming trail. And look up operation rolling thunder. Then remember the outcome of that war. It is possible.

[@MegrelMamba]

If US treats Ukraine same way as Israel they could win. But Americans dont really care about the frontline of Europe against Russgolia. A strip in middle-east that's already powerful enough on its own is more important

[@masteryourkitchen-areyouga7237]

well most of us want to help ... too bad the help being bloke

[@Klovaneer]

@@masteryourkitchen-areyouga7237 if you want to help you should volunteer, manpower is ukraine's biggest shortcoming

[@ajgraves8016]

Most of the US could care less about either country honestly

[@noboislikes2100]

The American sentiment is shifting to isolationism. Tired of sending money overseas.

[@ajgraves8016]

@@noboislikes2100 yes sir we can't keep doing the world police thing.

[@grandmastersreaction1267]

People need to seriously start questioning why the United States and The European Union can’t produce more than double the amount of artillery shells than The Russian Federation can. 63k shells vs >300k for Russia? Seriously? Why can’t The EU even match Russia?

[@ivan200804]

Nobody planned for prolonged war, it seems. It was US operation, not EU's. So EU was in la la land. Russia wanted to do Ukraine quickly and on the cheap too. Hence, 190K troops for the attack.

[@hajime2k]

Putin played chess while the West is still trying to understand checkers. Russia prepared for a conflict while the West thought Russia was bluffing. Dictators can push agendas with ease compared to fragile democracies. The West cannot stomach shifting money away from social expenditures. NATO is so fragile it can get hamstrung by Hungary or Turkey, especially since Ukraine is not a member.

[@MJ-1981]

Because Ukraine doesn't have the $$ to pay for ANYTHING.

[@looinrims]

Europe delayed in making proper investments, Russia for years has been on 4+% gdp-defense spending, and Russia is an authoritarian state, if daddy Putin says build more shells the companies comply, in the US the companies say ‘what are you paying us and for how long’

[@Jason-gq8fo]

We can but it takes time to build up. Artillery was always in Russians doctrine. NATO relies on AirPower to do the same job

[@Logmankixass12]

Those artillery stats are weak from WWI standards where some days millions of shells could be fired in a few hours in a single sector. Rookie numbers.

[@ReptilianAnusWizzard]

Millions of stellst in a fe hours? Really sounds a bit high.

[@MrHeavy466]

@@ReptilianAnusWizzard Look at the photos of spent shells and the logistical reports of WWI. It is fucking nuts.

[@Logmankixass12]

@@ReptilianAnusWizzard usually in the first hours of a massive battle ie Battle of the Somme, Verdun, Kaiserschlacht, etc

[@sashamedentsiy8204]

Hi, a small correction to 3:35 - concerning the funding of US and allies to pay the soldiers. Western financial aid is not used on funding the military. It is solely used to support civil infrastructure of Ukraine. That is the agreement. Ukrainian soldiers are paid exclusively from UA budget. That is the reason the country is not able to increase the amount of military personnel on a whim.

[@ycplum7062]

Ukraine is unable to go on a major offensive, although a minor one is possible, because of teh political standoff in the US. While tehre is general bi-partisan support for Ukraine, there is a rogue Republican faction (headed by Trump) that is obstructing further support to Uklraine. This rogue fatcion has paralyzed the Republican party, who has a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. They have been blocking a spending bill that contains aid to Ukraine. Manpower is not the bottleneck for Ukraine. Ammunition, specifically artillery, rockets and missiles are teh bottleneck. Drones have made maneuver warfare more difficult. The importance of artillery has risen in importance. While the EU has provided some equipment and ordnance, it has mainly provided funding. This funding is critical for keeping Ukraine politically, admiunistratively, and economically afloat. The US has provided the bulk of the military hardware and munitions. This is what is needed for an offensive. Without confidence that Ukraine will get more munitions, Ukraine cannot risk draining its (for now) limited supply of munitions on a major offensive. I think a majaor Ukrainian offensive is out of the question for 2024.

[@patwilson2546]

Both the US AND Europe need to get off their asses. I agree with your criticism of the US, but you give Europe a pass. I do not.

[@showdown66]

What is rogue about demanding the southern border be protected? Why doesn’t Biden simply do something about it which would both protect American interests and unlock the funds for Ukraine?

[@jamesbarca7229]

@@showdown66 You're wasting your time asking brainwashed minions to answer intelligent questions.

[@damackabet.4611]

My guy, MAGA is the republican party, trumps base makes up like 80-95% of the republican party. People on both sides are against the mass sending of money, republicans are a bit more but that is just because they love america more than leftists, leftists are globalists they don't like countries as much. If you wanted support to ukraine to be large, you shouldnt have let Biden fuck our economy and border. It is a hell of a lot easier to convince people to send resources when they themselves aren't suffering.

[@Klliansimabras]

@@damackabet.4611 In fact, Biden have a good economy policy.

[@clayongunzelle9555]

It's kinda ironic that whenever new technologies are introduced in war it tends to drag it to a stall... Maybe I'm wrong idk

[@finnthunder6542]

What you mean as stall? WW2 was full of new new technologies

[@tofanalexander]

Good news about Bohdana!

[@zealmediaproductions844]

A lot of Neo cons in the comment section

[@Jartran72]

I disagree on Ukraine needing to outmatch russian artillery, especially in shells. Ukraine is transferring to a NATO military. We fight with air planes, not artillery. Artillery is for low priority targets and close ground support. But Close air support from a helicopter or plane is always preffered. So Ukraine should refrain from major offensives until the F16s and the australian F18s are integrated into the army and a massive amount of western missiles/guided bombs become available to Ukraine. They are such a massive advanage.. literally what our western armies are built around. Sure we need infantry to clear buildings we don't want to blow up and Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to support our infantry.. but Navy and aircraft do pretty much a lot of the rest. Why risk people you have investe years of training into when a sea launche Tomahawk can solve the problem much easier? Now I get that Ukraine won't be given their own american carrier group for the black sea.. but the F16/F18 combo can pretty much carry all the good stuff. And european countries like germany can buy from america and give it to Ukraine if the orange guy becomes president again and blocks aid for good. He never said no to arms sales anyway. And if the other old dude stays president hopefully aid flows without any hinderance. Slawa Ukraini

[@gavincourchesne4564]

Arty officer here, that's incorrect

[@iamaim2847]

You still think about it as just another colonial enslavement war. USSR in second world war built and used 160 000 planes. Last united europe could afford only 60 000. In modern age NATO is bragging with thousands, like it is something significant. And the most important, it is not 20ths centuary. Drones took role of air support. And rocket AA can shoot down any plane. And I will not even start about F16/18 are 4 decades old.

[@user-yl4br5oi7k]

"We fight with air planes, not artillery" you fight with air planes against man in flip flops. try do that against real army. "massive amount of western missiles/guided bombs become available to Ukraine" so we wait till 2030? 2040? "but Navy and aircraft do pretty much a lot of the rest" Ukranian Navy???😂 "Now I get that Ukraine won't be given their own american carrier group for the black sea" 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@ReptilianAnusWizzard]

There is no way Ukraine can get Controle of the Skies,even if they get a Couple of Airplanes, how many Planes you need to have around 20 in the Skies at all times? Maybe 100 or more, then there is the Russian Air defence and Russian Airplanes. Yeah it is really something else to fight a diffrent Military, not some Afghan Farmers.

[@bobloblaw1720]

@@user-yl4br5oi7kRussia doesn’t have a real army.

[@hvitekristesdod]

Russia must construct additional pylons

[@TTundra__]

Not enough minerals

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

They do need it if they are to liberate their lands. But to pull it off they need a lot more western equipment.

[@JoeyBlogs007]

Wouldn't make any sense. Defensive stand off posture far more efficient. This a battle of attrition spanning years.

[@mrxmry7763]

I think we might be looking at this going til 2030, both sides arming up heavily and neither side lacks for human resources, industries are power up churning out equipment to replace losses, we have just gotten started basically ... as someone already mentioned this war wont end for the lack of money or materiel, but rather growing internal dissent and loss of popular support which in turn will put pressure on both governments to come to a resolution, for this to happen the war has to rage on and losses has to keep mounting... like a fire that has to burn itself out.

[@looinrims]

Could binkov do a video on the Estonian white paper for potential NATO plan to support Ukraine and achieve victory? An analysis would be interesting

[@charlieperaltaf]

That's called WWIII...

[@looinrims]

@@charlieperaltaf nothing in the paper hasn’t been done already, so either you didn’t read it or you’re a bot

[@dominuslogik484]

@@looinrims he is just an idiot that never read the paper, its literally just budgeting a constant fund until the war is over.

[@Pinkhairedkilla]

Istg Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are all itching to fight Russia and it's funny to see XD, probably they wish they were in Ukraine shoes so they can invoke Nato article 5

[@yeetadog]

@@Pinkhairedkilla lots of history huh? for all of those countries, if the cancer next door was to not exist anymore, we wouldn't need armies anymore

[@langohr9613ify]

The west must decide if they are willing to pay the price for Ukrain victory. If they don't commit to massiv aid, it is going to come down to some kind of stalemate. A Ukrainian victory with current support seems to be unlikley. I live in Germany and do not see the political potential for uping our aid, because we allready have a big debate on gouvernment spending.

[@jamesmandahl444]

You mean America. Nah you guys hoped to swing on the nuts of our neocons/neolib elite. Well screw them and this goofy war. It was always about trying to crush Russia's black sea naval presence and ultimately regime change Russia. You idiots hoped the west would help kill your enemies for you thru supporting the devilish neocon/neolib factions. Sorry homie but I am not stupid and know this was never about Russian expansion or domino theory 2.0 crap. This was about taking Russia out.

[@sapphyrus]

It's turning out to be a repeat of Winter War.

[@phil20_20]

They need to take Donetsk Airport. Somebody should do an analysis. This is the Hub of the conflict. Not much going on right there, but the location is pivitol. That's why Russia put in a lot of effort early on to take it.

[@annbjorn]

This channel always makes me think different. In a positive way.

[@subi-brz]

It’s design to give you false hope

[@IIHydraII]

In the end, the only people winning are the weapons manufacturers. I feel bad for the poor young men who get sent to their deaths on each side for no reason.

[@maryanchabursky9148]

Only the russians for no reason. Not even the weapons manufacturers are making money here

[@silverletter4551]

@@maryanchabursky9148 Both sides for no reason

[@maryanchabursky9148]

@@silverletter4551 no Ukraine fights for its freedom and to defend their vary homes. ruSSia fights because they want to restore their empire and were told that Ukraine is a fake country.

[@garrettstickel1189]

yes ukraine fights for its freedom from choosing more then one party to vote for!!!! even usa during the Civil War didn't do that.. and we still held a presidential election... and we still kicked the souths ass

[@YuLu-iv8cz]

"If victory is inevitable, there's no need to reform my army or stop wasting resources on suicide attacks. After all, I'm guaranteed to win." Russian propaganda attitude in 2024.

[@argumentative2532]

Pretty much spot on. They're gonna stop the expansion of nato any day now

[@Paciat]

@@argumentative2532 Lol, stop expansion of NATO? Then why does Finland want to join? The opposite is happening. Ukraine stopped the expansion of the biggest country on earth.

[@jarmosalonen2068]

My quess is that Russian goverment will get rid of Putin, or itself. Waiting is enough.

[@J..P..]

lol. ok.

[@USB740]

It will become a frozen conflict similar to that between North and South Korea. This war is set to go for many more years in a stalemate. Both countries have the resources to keep going before they tire morally. Since 2014 to 2022+. Eventually it will end in both sides accepting a peace call with subsequent negotiated settlement of some kind.

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

...or the Russian regime will collapse and Ukraine will do what Croatia once did by restoring its territory.

[@GamesOfficialYouTube]

​@@user-wm5rt9pw5l Ethnic cleansing?

[@huntergatherer7796]

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to continue the war without western aide. Once that dries up the country will collapse.

[@Mae-nr7wr]

" Both countries have the resources to keep going" ukraine literally needs billions in aid every month just for its civilian economy not to collapse, so literally false

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

@@GamesOfficialKZbin Oh man, Ukrainians have problems with Russians not because they are ethnically Russian. If you only knew.

[@MrGoobee]

You cannot build a house sitting on a welfare check 😅

[@PhilipposACosta]

Interesting how we talk casually Bout how Ukraine will not have man power, while forgetting that this means the death of a huge proportion of young adults. Sad

[@billburr5881]

men, not adults. The vast majority of the casualties are male. Remember the Ukrainian women got to flee to the West and only Russian men are conscripted. Odd the femunists don't mind being underrepresented in the trenches and military cemeteries - guess equality isn't needed if women don't benefit from it!

[@Ru_Imperialist]

Средний возраст гибели на этой войне это 40 лет. При этом Украина может призвать молодое поколение если война продлится ещë 1,5 года, что в конечном счëте не даст восстановить демографию как минимум ещë 100 лет

[@user-kv4tj1jv5x]

@@Ru_Imperialist Просто чекни на википедии страничку "Население Украины" - там очень мало людей в возрасте 20-25 лет, а 35-40 лет - наоборот, самая крупная часть украинского населения, поэтому именно они и составляют костяк армии. Можно, конечно, призывать и с 18 лет, но это даст армии максимум пару сотен тысяч человек, а эффект на демографию от этого будет ужасен.

[@allo-other]

15:13 Tom Wintringham was a surprise!

[@dabubba4603]

Without watching the video yet, I guess it is possible to do enough damage on defense to make holding land controlled by Russia difficult , but that amount of damage takes time to inflict. We can look back at ww2 for the same kinda reasoning, when the Germans were marching through eastern Europe and sieged major Russian cities they had taken massive losses from all sectors but still managed to survive long enough to siege but inevitably they were beaten back. We may see something similar happen here but the time tables will change as if I remember correctly this is the 3rd year of the war and it’s only on one front. But the war is not ending anytime soon from either side and that sadly is an unarguable fact. (Btw this is just a guess outside of my final statement so neither side gets their panties twisted up)

[@RiVer-Parish]

Why dont they just build robots and play a match of battlebots.

[@matthewbarabas3052]

im pretty sure a drone vs drone conflict happened by now.

[@Crashed131963]

When the USSR invaded Afghanistan 1979-89 the Afghans just waited for the invaders to go bankrupt ,and they did .

[@Idonthaveanythingtodo]

Afghans are smarter than they look

[@Vaultboy-ke2jj]

Bullshit, the US financed the mujahideen for years

[@flavioaveraldo2280]

​​@@Vaultboy-ke2jj not only US...

[@kjungst]

Don't forget about cold war and a race of developing the military gear.

[@IDFCClan]

that wasnt a land connected war nor was it the food basket for europe also the side russia has already conquered is the land worth the most in ukraine in terms of resources afgan only has opium and little infustructure especially back then ukraine has trillions in mines farmland ect... also russia took the largest nuclear facility in europe back from ukraine so they are gaining money long term in this invasion in comparison to afgan

[@johnw9190]

This was the longest maybe, maybe not, ever.

[@jojor9766]

It is insane to think that Russia can keep up this war for years. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, Russia's tax receipts on oil and gas are down more than 50% from 2022 to 2023. Also, according to the Ministry there have been double digit falls in both VAT and income taxes. The only reason that the budget is not totally out of control is because there is a large growth in the "other" category of tax receipts. There is no explanation of this category, but this must be a great new burden to the economy. The most likely culprits are either special war taxes on industries or import tariffs. Interestingly Russians have complained about heavy rises in communal utility services at the same time that there have been vast failures in these services. Also, there was the case of the egg and chicken scarcities. Putin said that he would address the egg scarcity by dropping the tariffs on eggs for a period of time. This, of course, begs the question of just how high the tariff was that it should make a significant difference in price. I now fully understand the Greek myth of Casandra. The Governor of the Bank of Russia goes about making public speeches about the coming near term doom of the Russian economy and it seems that no one will listen to her. Russia has draconian capital controls and has expended vast reserves from the central bank to support the ruble. Yet it continues to fall and hover near the 100 to 1 mark against the dollar. Before anyone says that Russia does not do much trade in dollars, the fall is similar to currencies like the euro, yuan and rupee. Russia most recently forced its major companies to exchange their hard currencies for the ruble. Basically, they are out of tricks. The interest rate has been raised to an eye-watering 16%. This is not sustainable. Apparently, the Bank of Russia is burning too quickly through its reserves for other reasons, so it is faced with the dilemma of either raising rates to incredible rates, increasing the burn rate of the reserves, or letting the ruble collapse. All these paths lead to hell. When the reserves run dry there will be hell to pay and nothing with which to pay it. If Ukraine wants an easy path to an offensive, it should consider breaking the imaginary wall to the north. Zelensky could declare a special military operation to go into Belgorod and use it as a springboard to attack Luhansk from the north and roll up the Russian defenses. Once the Northern part of the Oblast was retaken, he could withdraw from Belgorod. The Russian army is a teetering mess and could be one good rout from disintegration. Even if it does manage to establish a new line, Russia will have suffered yet another massive failure. The people of Russia are really tired of this war. The people of Rostov cheered on the Wagner Pig as he marched on Moscow. There have been major riots in Dagestan. Large groups of people of Bashkoristan and Yakutia have risked arrest in order to stage large protests. This is incredibly dangerous in a police state like Russia. A group of women had the courage to get arrested in Moscow for calling for the return of their mobilized husbands. Hundreds of government buildings have suffered arson attacks, especially recruitment offices for the army. Russia is quickly running out of time. If it insists on going to complete collapse, then the country will almost certainly fracture and may find itself partially eaten by China. Unlike 1917, China presently has a working army and it has historic claims on the Far East.

[@user-ov9vx5rr4u]

🤣

[@biushee9450]

The chances of there being a mojor civil issue is very low and would be controlled and now countries are not as willing to support ukraine anymore and russia is learning from their mistakes while ukraine is getting weaker its just the truth. I dont see ukraines situation in any positive light they might end up for peace talks. This war started because Ukraine wanted to be a part of NATO which just very dumb. Russias biggest enemy coming right up to the border. The european countries will definitely reduce the money they send. Dont know about ukraine. Russias economy will grow by 2.6% and i dont see ukraines economy growing in the coming months.

[@eman7282]

You just wrote a Peter Zeihan fantasy… Full of probabilities & possibilities… all loosely based on the OG 2019 Rand Corp report for getting Russia to submit

[@BW022]

Perhaps you should look at Russian, German, Japanese, UK, Chinese, and other countries economies during WW2. Sorry, modern countries can fight despite massive economic hardships. They can borrow from themselves, default on payments, not pay people, suffer massive unemployment rates, massive housing and economic systems destroyed, etc. and still keep fighting. Further, unlike 1945 or so, these countries have massive paddings of internal production, food, energy, etc. before they even drop to pre-war WW2 levels.

[@jojor9766]

I see what passes as wit amongst the orcs.

[@ThaFunkster100]

Very interesting video, I wish all the western leaders would see this video and start making a plan.

[@yourneighbour2675]

how to surrender to the great Ukrainian army. 8-)

[@johnclay2716]

Every Ukraine-War comment section >UKRONAZI BOTS! >VATNIK BOTS! >THIS IS UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA >THIS IS RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

[@saucy743]

🗿 it true tho

[@Znatsnaz]

That tactic for me mixes the benefit of dumping with the limited entry Israeli CQB doctrine. I'm not military ou officer in Brazil, but I followed some CQB training with federal and Rio de Janeiro police officers (no details) and I remember when Israeli counter-terrorism instructors taught that the doctrine in Israel was: only bullets will pass the treshold until it is safe. So, israeli are very cautious before stepping into the center, generally peeking their way, checking by outside all angles and using the cover of the walls. I believe that this Navy Seal doctrine is a middle ground between caution and violence of action, without compromising speed - I'm not saying that the Israelis weren't fast, they were, but not faster than this Seal in dominating enclosed space.

[@holo4ever]

interesting video, liked it, but you need a new mic.

[@mephisto8101]

Wow, the comment section is full of Russian Bots. You seem to do something right here, Binkov, when they get triggered this hard. ;)

[@illomens2766]

Triggered NATO bot detected Don't forget to piss your pants today buddy

[@ettoreatalan8303]

@@illomens2766 Next Kremlin bot detected

[@arcies9286]

@@ettoreatalan8303 Na he's not a bot, just an idiot

[@flightofthejellyfish]

Or maybe the entire world that doesn't have the CIA plugged directly into their brain via CNN knows something you don't.

[@bulletflight]

​@@flightofthejellyfishI don't have Neuralink yet, but I have seen the mobik meat cube.

[@lexslate2476]

Russia's trench lines are a tough target to take on, but Russia's oil refineries are nice and flammable, and Russia doesn't seem to have enough surface-to-air capability to protect them. There are lots of big, expensive things in Russia that they cannot easily replace. And there's lots of room at the bottom of the Black Sea for more Russian warships.

[@fortpark-wd9sx]

Ukraine's facilities are equally, perhaps even more vulnerable. 🙄🙄

[@JABN97]

@@fortpark-wd9sx no. because the current critical support elements for Ukraine are not located in Ukraine. The EU basically funds their economy, while the USA produces most of their weapons. The Russians can not attack those critical assets unless they want to add the entire NATO to a war that already isn't going according to plan

[@fortpark-wd9sx]

@@JABN97 That is basically saying all UA criticsl assets have been destroyed and just sbout everything of importance has to come from the Western fontier.

[@JABN97]

@@fortpark-wd9sx no, it’s not. How did you conclude that? I said that critical financial and industrial assets supporting Ukraine are located outside of Ukraine, and thus outside of Russian range. That doesn’t mean all critical assets in Ukraine are destroyed, or can be. Frankly, I don’t know the state of Ukraines internal assets, and neither do you, because that’s state-secret classified info that probably only the Ukrainian goverment themself has. Same is true for critical Russian assets. And if any are destroyed, they can probably be repaired given time & resources. Comprehensively & permanently destroying a country’s economy through airpower alone is almost impossible

[@BlackEpyon]

Good news is that Ukraine now has their sea-based grain shipments going again, thanks to the Black Sea Fleet being effectively castrated!

[@lardwickx8642]

do the 1rst one worked ?

[@unnainconnu9098]

"do" you "watched" the video?

[@michaelm3691]

Yes, magnificiently so. It liberated huge chunks of territory East of Kharkiv. The 2nd liberated Kherson.

[@jaybeebee9288]

Binkov, could you do a video on my dream, multi-universe scenario: A force from an alternate universe Ukraine somehow swaps places with its counterpart here. Their composition: Army: 800,000 men, very extensive + modern long/medium/short range missile stocks with sufficient range and precision to strike targets thousands of miles into Russia, over 3200 attack helicopters, 1200 drones, plus as many tanks/himars etc you can think of, all most modern/largest etc, extensive Engineer Corps that not only reconnects necessary infra but also demines it. Air Force: 97,000 men, extreme metal-to-meat ratio, all fighters 6th gen, own space force for real time sat recon; Navy: None. THE CATCH...this Mirror Universe Ukrainian force has only 8 days of operation, before it swaps back with our universe's Ukranian forces. Assume they are fully deployment ready upon arrival in Ukranian HELD territory (they cannot start in the occupied areas). What could they achieve in 8 days? :

[@BlackEpyon]

"Does Ukraine need another offensive?" What a stupid question. Of course they do. The reason the last one fizzled is because the west didn't commit nearly as much equipment as Ukraine requested, and what WAS committed was late in arriving. While Ukraine was waiting for that equipment to arrive, Russia wasted no time at all in scattering mines like glitter on a child's art project. WE had the opportunity to end this quickly, and because WE didn't step up to the plate and give Ukraine everything they needed, this war is going to take a lot longer than anybody anticipated.

[@user-tl6tb7ob6e]

your completely dellusional

[@daydays12]

So sadly true. Shame on the "West"

[@BlackEpyon]

@@user-tl6tb7ob6e How so? I watched it happen. They had to pull back the tanks when they saw how thick the minefields were. What's the good of all that western armour if you're going to just wreck it charging blindly through the minefields?

[@maryanchabursky9148]

@@user-tl6tb7ob6eindeed you are

[@nicholascarter9158]

The war only continues at all because every side tries to win as cheaply as possible, never willing to make expensive bets on the chance of advantage.

[@joseemanueel]

the bot count on the comment section is too high

[@TonyFontaine1988]

Ukrainian bots yes

[@liskurex]

thats a proof that ruzzians are desperate

[@kapauk_k2982]

@@TonyFontaine1988 are you on a mission or something ive seen you in like every reply section just seething over any sort of discourse against russia, its a video on a war, of course not everything is going to align with your view, but you cannot just call it 'fake' if it does not go with your opinion.

[@TonyFontaine1988]

@@kapauk_k2982 because people are tired of you all being wrong all the time

[@koendejongh9059]

RIP Supremacy Legacy

[@windy7259]

An alternative, is a two possibly situation, thee alternatives result in six possibilities! In that case it is an alternative with three propositions!

[@Jartran72]

Elaborate

[@patwilson2546]

It is not a matter of need as much as it is a matter of can. If Ukraine does not have the offensive capacity to make better gains than it i did in 2023 then they are better off continuing to husband resources while attriting the Russian army (a process that Russia seems willing to accommodate).

[@comradekenobi6908]

You think in a war of attrition ukriane will come out on top?

[@Scaleyback317]

Had the western nation fulfilled what they said they would that offensive may have worked. No army on earth was going to attempt let alone acheive any sort of noteworthy gains without air superiority. Yet you exepct the Ukrainians to do so after having one hand tied behind their back for the preceeding 18 months?

[@zhihao1]

@@comradekenobi6908 Russia wont run out of manpower, but they might run out of money first. Already burned through half of their IMF to cover their spending deficits the last two years of war

[@johntowers1213]

their economy is built on resources not products and services... and one thing they are not short of is customers outside the west willing to buy those resources...you'd have a better argument betting on them running out of key components due to tightening sales restrictions than running out of customers willing to give them money for raw materials..hell its GDP growth forecast for the year sits at 3.1% compared to a lackluster 1.7% for The EU to give you context Russia has plenty of Structural problems that will plague it for generations...but one thing it wont do is lose this conflict for lack of money @@zhihao1

[@Digital_Griffin]

@@johntowers1213 China and India don't pay nearly as much for raw russian materials as the west did, so russia is still making less money, and their budget is in deep deficit (as you'd expect in the middle of a war). This situation isn't good for Ukraine, but it isn't good for Russia either. Russia can keep it going for some time still, but it's extremely expensive and they are losing their ability to threaten or influence anyone else in the future, even if they manage to eventually "win" in Ukraine

[@FR-PL-UA-WARSZAWA]

To ridicule Russia by hitting its war boats, its generals, its air bases, its ammo depots, its oil & gas plants is far more efficient than a costly offensive. What does think Valery Gerassimov about it?

[@BOZ_11]

The war is lost buddy. this is all a Ukrainian death spiral for a few more months before they bend over at the negotiation table, with half their country a casualty or emigrated

[@saucy743]

"What does think Valery Gerassimov about it?" Engrish

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

@@BOZ_11 How much longer do you think that Russia can continue spending 1 $bn per day on this war , particularly as their revenues have dropped and their currency is crashing while interest rates and inflation is rising rapidly ?

[@gettinglucky]

not sure if Gerassimov can answer outside of sporadic cadaveric spasms

[@BOZ_11]

@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub What economic crisis? Russian inflation has fallen from 11% in January 2023 to 7.4% today. Unemployment fell from 2.8% to 2.2% (same timeframe) Wages rose from 63260 Roubles to 73830 (same timeframe).

[@antoniofernandesmarchetti1097]

It's interesting to think that It turned out a ww1 similar situation.

[@unnainconnu9098]

Not really because back then the two sides were maxed out on armament. It's not the case right now.

[@flightofthejellyfish]

Agreed, this is the first real conflict where both sides have had significant air defense and anti-tank munitions. Turns out all that's left is to devolve into an artillery duel. That was before the FPV drones started making such an appearance. It seems to me that *cheap* drones are going to be highly counterable and have only made such an impact because they are new.

[@strangelylookingperson]

I really don't understand how one side has decisive (1.6 - 3 times) advantage in number of troops and, at the same time, not have any major military advancements and less casualties then the enemy, Russia in this case.

[@elmohead]

It's not 3-1 advantage. It's 10-1 advantage. You count firepower, not personnel.

[@strangelylookingperson]

@@elmohead I doubt that Ukraine has firepower advantage. It's hard to count. Russia has more firepower in absolute numbers, but Ukraine (actually, USA) has much more effective targeting system. So, at the end, it equals to each other

[@mark679]

2k shells a day compared to 60k a week hard to beat.@@strangelylookingperson

[@strangelylookingperson]

@@mark679 Well, it's not 2 Vs 60, and Russian targeting system is much worse than American one. So Ukrainians can hit one target with one shell, while Russians have to spend 50 shells

[@mark679]

Lmao what? My guy i've seen Russian T-62's used as artillery that are more accurate than a Ukranian M-777 or 2S7 Nona artillery barrage and all they used is a drone the thing with the Russians is they can expend more shells causing more Ukranian cassualties you seemed to get it right over your head and into the wall because the point of it was that Ukraine had barely any shells left to use while the Russians were upgrading older Fab-500's into guided ones and using them to bombard them accurately and besides those 500's they also use 100mm cannons from old tanks to a good extent that way there is no real shortage of Russian artillery like on the Ukranian side.@@strangelylookingperson

[@Demka03]

Wow the comments are cancer

[@silverletter4551]

Yeah, a lot of pro-war goblins around here

[@silverletter4551]

Yeah, a lot of pro-war goblins around here

[@Quickshot0]

@Demka03 the paid for commenters from Russia and so seem to be everywhere, yeah. Guess they're hoping in Russia if they but plaster their propaganda where ever they can as much as possible that it might help. Guess things aren't looking good for them if they're trying that hard though.

[@weifengmao]

​@@Quickshot0 People who don't live in the West usually have vastly different opinions of global events. I guess they are all viewed as bots.

[@hrnytinoker4146]

@@Quickshot0 Ignoring the propaganda of one side whilst laughing about it coming from the other. The vast majority of commenters saying "No more support for foreign wars" or anything in that regards are more than likely real people who don't want money wasted on another nations war.

[@wellsdylan]

Generic comment that ismt aligned with your views argue with me

[@W0lfyMusic]

Generic argument, that opposes your view.

[@2MeterLP]

I passionately but politely disagree!

[@Bambim8]

_Rage bait_

[@jack727dave5]

accusation of being a bot and/or troll.

[@CurrentlyOffliner]

They absolutely need another offensive , more time passes we clearly see support to Ukraine gets lower. This time they need to be given enough equipment and they need to mobilize 500k more troops like Zaluzhnyi requiered. West giving Ukraine enough to survive not enough to win. Russia will outsurvive west will to support because as much as this effect EU and US it's still not directly their war , support will (we can see that clearly in polls) get lower and lower. Also war fatigue shouldn't be underestimated , war happens at Ukranian lands it effects them more , skip 2024 and you will see more and more civil unrest and criticizm against Zelensky goverment. Peoples will start to question point of war if Ukraine keep losing land slowly for whole year. With enough equipment and money also mobilizing enough people Ukraine certainly can win and they don't need 1 year to prepare.

[@FreedomFox1]

Binkov, you say that Ukraine needs “an order of magnitude more” military aid. Where could this possibly come from? You admit that the US and its Allies are tapped-out and not significantly increasing production.. so WHERE? The west has money, but someone needs to make the stuff!!!

[@elijah_9392]

The west needs to expand its defense industrial base. If not for Ukraine, then for China.

[@davidshapiro292]

He just don't want to admit that ukraine is doomed.

[@comradekenobi6908]

From Godzilla idk

[@KaloyanKasabov]

​@@davidshapiro292so was Afghanistan in the 80s

[@davidshapiro292]

@@KaloyanKasabov ukraine is not fighting like an insurgency.

[@onlyfacts3502]

This is about the only channel on KZbin with an honest take of the conflict. Reality is neither side is going to make some amazing breakthrough. This war from the start has been slow and long drawn out, and will continue to be for a very long time. The only people that believe either side is “winning” are those that have only come close to war through Call of Duty.

[@brightplanet-es3sk]

You do not correctly understand what is happening at the front. You don't know why Russia attacked Ukraine. There is no point in Russia advancing, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the opportunity or strength.

[@onlyfacts3502]

@@brightplanet-es3sk No matter how many times you say it…it doesn’t make it true. You have no idea what you’re talking about, no credentials, or experience. Surgeons don’t let auto mechanics tell them how to do their jobs. I be damned if I let someone with no military service, or documented hours of command and staff knowledge tell me what I know.

[@Ravi9A]

lmao

[@brightplanet-es3sk]

​@@onlyfacts3502If you knew what was happening in the country and at the front, you would have to drink whiskey to calm your fantasy.

[@onlyfacts3502]

@@brightplanet-es3sk Just say you love Mother Russia and leave it at that. You’re no better than the Ukraine supporters that blindly ignore their failures, and short falls. The one thing both have in common…you’re both idiots.

[@KosherFinance]

Spring offensive😂

[@frankopanklaric]

It would just mean more ground for Russia. Quit while you're ahead.

[@appaapnafurka]

Love is put food on table.

[@someguy4405]

Wise words.

[@AdvocatusDiaboliFin]

What are the chances Kerch bridge is still standing this summer?

[@bobdillon1138]

Pretty good actually they have had a long time to organize air defenses and they have a lot of them protecting it if Ukraine can get a bit closer and had more storm shadow to shoot at it they might be able to overwhelm it though.

[@josesierraromero8316]

The same Kiev citizens don't care about rename city "Geigerville"

[@hyhhy]

Did Ukraine even need a big offensive in 2023?

[@zacharymacadam7416]

The bots are strong in this one

[@looinrims]

Bots are always strong on binkov videos, going back to the very first video So lame

[@poppyrider5541]

@@looinrims No, they really seem like they are all over this one.

[@looinrims]

@@poppyrider5541 I don’t see the practical difference

[@ivan200804]

Ok, mr Z. Bots are everywhere now. We don't even know if you are a bot or a real person.

[@karlhans6678]

Yup, the russbots are going wild in the comments.

[@kienngo4601]

This channel is quite intersting. I rarely find any thousands-like cmts. Which could possibly indicate that a lot of neutral, pro nato or pro Russia are all over the place?

[@jeffbenton6183]

Its important to note that its not just how many shells each side can produce, but also how many replacement barrels. The US has ramped up production of that, but there are reports of considerable problems in that department for Russia.

[@huntergatherer7796]

The US production is for replenishing their own stockpiles that were drawn from to aid Ukraine. The new production isn't for Ukraine.

[@zix_zix_zix]

@@huntergatherer7796 "The new production isn't for Ukraine" - that's not what the video said.

[@jeffbenton6183]

@@huntergatherer7796 That's not quite correct. The Generals intend to send shells to Ukraine as soon as Congress gives the go-ahead. One thing we have to consider is the fact that US forces use artillery, but they don't really rely on it. While Russia and Ukraine are artillery-dependent "fires armies", the US usually relies on airpower to fill that role. The US has absurd numbers of precision-guided bombs in inventory and invests heavily to achieve air superiority. It simply doesn't use enough to need massive stockpiles of barrels. A M777 155m howitzer can fire about 2500 rounds before needing a barrel replacement (it depends on the size of the propellent charge, and other factors). That means that an M777 in US service is going to last a long time. There just aren't many opportunities for the US to fire that many rounds while in training or plinking terrorists. An army firing 200,000 rounds per month, on the other hand, will need almost 1,000 barrels by the end of the year. If the US actually does produce more than that, then most of those will absolutely go to Ukraine. We have plenty for our own needs. The US Army has focused on increasing quality and quantity of artillery since 2018 expecting a war with Russia or North Korea(the army with the most artillery in the World and the second-most, respectively). Now that said war is upon us, but we're not the ones fighting it, all of that equipment is going to Ukraine so NATO won't need to defend the Baltics from Russia later.

[@jeffbenton6183]

On another note, regarding the shells themselves, experts estimate that Ukraine needs 2.4 million 155mm shells this year. Before the war, we had 4.3 million and we gave 2 million to Ukraine over the course of 2 years. Our buddies in South Korea gave us a cool 1 million to replenish (both Koreas have an insane amount of artillery to better fight in the mountainous terrain there) so US stocks are actually in good shape, given the rapid production. At the start of the war, we produced 12,000 per month. As soon as it started, we set a goal to get to 100,000 by 2028. Production is actually ramped-up much faster than that time-table, we've since doubled production to 24,000 per month and are expected to reach 80,000 per month by the beginning of 2025. We could wind down to less than 1 million shells at the start of 2025 and be just fine - our stocks would fully double after a year anyways. As I said before, the US doesn't rely on artillery the way Russia does. It also won't need millions of shells in a hypothetical war with China (since AirSea battle would rule the day in the Pacific). It's much more in the US interest to give almost all the new production to Ukraine and replenish stocks later.

[@huntergatherer7796]

Read the bill

[@JohnnyWishbone85]

Honestly, Russia's best play is to hope this whole thing devolves into a Korean-DMZ-type scenario. Ukraine can't join NATO while it has a land dispute with Russia, so that's their biggest fear off the table already. All they have to do is maintain the status quo. Hell, they could even just withdraw everywhere except Crimea and Kherson, and focus all their resources there.

[@Jartran72]

Meh, Ukraine already has mutual defense treaties with Britain and France. So if this war ever stops and russia tries again they have to square off against british fighters and french bombers. Even if they are not in NATO, they get massive western support. Economical and military.

[@CyrilSneer123]

@@Jartran72 LMAO you're a child.

[@JohnnyWishbone85]

@@Jartran72 -- You're not wrong; that stuff does make a difference, but article 5 is what they really didn't want more of on their border.

[@messier8379]

Ukraine already have separatists states but still insisted joining NATO....and NATO just fucking give it applicant status.. Russia was like wtf bruh yeah would Russia let some American Nukes be on Russia's doorstep? Lel

[@pyeitme508]

IDK

[@looinrims]

What we need is a Michael Kopfman x Binkov collab

[@epicstyle1000]

" Russia cant afford to throw away men and equipment in attacks" they still seem to need to learn that lesson repeatedly

[@shesathome]

Ukraine can't do this either, but tries its best to please overseas master of puppets.

[@froodtube]

It is Russian history. Their dictators demand loyalty over competence. Stalin famously killed most competent generals in Russia and replaced them with idiots loyal to Stalin. To this day Russia still boasts about how many soldiers it lost. In any war they fight, far more Russian soldiers die than their opposition. The leaders don't care. The last thing you want to be on this planet is a 'Russian soldier'

[@maximilianodelrio]

​@@froodtube the USSR had some of the best generals and military minds of WW2, generals like Zhukov or rokossovsky were the master minds behind some of the greatest successes of WW2. They also had great tactics and strategy, deep battle made blitzkrieg look like child's play (it was), and casualty wise, the soviets suffered only 50% more dead than the axis, which considering how unprepared and roughed they were in 1941, the fact that the vast majority of soviets under german captivity died, and that they spent the majority of the war going on the offensive against the Germans, is not bad at all.

[@chadthundercock4806]

People who believe that myth have lost every single time. If you cannot analyze the tactics the enemy employs beyond dismissing them as human waves then you have lost the war by yourself.

[@froodtube]

@@chadthundercock4806 The two are not necessarily contradictory. Prioritizing loyal generals over competent ones is a long Russian tradition. "Human waves" tends to be the go to plan they always fall back on. Human waves as a strategy should not be dismissed. It has served Russian leaders well at the expense of a few million useless-to-them Russians. Russia prides itself on winning WWII against the Nazis. They also highlight they paid a prize of 27 million Russians. The Nazis lost 4 million, and that includes those that died against the British, French, and Americans. It turns out just not caring about your soldiers or population and just sending as many of them to die as you can can be a fairly effective tactic for those in power.

[@Zealot2024]

The U.S. needs to stop the political shit and put Russia in its place.

[@IshijimaKairo]

And kill us all in the process? Great idea.

[@vlad22rus]

The only ones who will take their place are the United States. (to the toilet seat)

[@flightofthejellyfish]

This was the U.S. putting Russia in its place. It was a good plan, bait Russia into an expensive war against their proxy (while maintaining plausible deniability) and hit them with the economic super weapons we'd worked out. It should have worked, Ukraine should have been facing emaciated Russians marching barefoot in the snow. It was such a good plan we didn't even have a plan B and have been improvising ever since. You can google the think tank document "Extending Russia" if you want to see the whole plan laid out before the war by professional scholars and strategists.

[@FrancoITA505]

Maybe they have to stay in their CONTINENT? Oh no the entire American government is controlled by companies that profit from the war

[@tadmccalister2234]

'Murica

[@z0ro_62]

They would have an easier time taking land the was originally Russian pushing up towards Moscow best way to to trade for lan once the peace deal finally happens

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

"he was originally Russian" - no territories of modern Ukraine have ever been "originally Russian". Starting with the first and only census of the Russian Empire in 1897, all Ukrainian territories, except Crimea, had a majority of Ukrainians.

[@ftk2589]

@@user-wm5rt9pw5l Fake.

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

@@ftk2589 Data from the 1897 census are available online in 8 languages

[@silverletter4551]

@@user-wm5rt9pw5l They're the same people. They need to abandon this nonsense of being a sovereign people

[@user-wm5rt9pw5l]

@@silverletter4551 No, they are not the same people. If this were so, Russia would not be trying to assimilate, Russify and control Ukraine. It is Russians, specifically Russians, who deny the existence of Ukrainians and declare that they are “the same”. The existence of Ukrainians literally undermines the national myth of Russians as a nation. Russians believe that they are literally a continuation of the thousand-year-old nation of Rus', but in the territory where Rus' lives there are people who are different from them, speak a different language and do not consider Russians to be one with themselves. Russians NEED that Ukrainians cease to exist as a separate nation in order for the Russian national myth to be coherent.

[@argumentative2532]

I can't wait to see what the Ukrainians do with a semblance of an airforce, with how creatively they've been using everything sent to them it'll change the landscape. How much is the big question

[@crodude9847]

Finally a sane comment

[@attilamarics3374]

10 F-16s isnt an airforce.

[@Pnaraasi94]

@@attilamarics3374 Hence why it's only a "semblance" of an air force. Anyway, 10 F-16s is a hell of a lot more than 0 F-16s, and these are extremely capable modern fighter jets. Much better than the few old Soviet-era fighters Ukraine has been operating so far.

[@comradekenobi6908]

Don't worry bro I heard they're gonna be assigned by UFOs from Mars

[@attilamarics3374]

@@Pnaraasi94 Search up how effective the F-16 against S-300s and S-400s.

[@stank8460]

Imagine if the U.S. invaded mexico from 3 sides and only controlled 20% of it after 3 years. In my eyes, that's the Russo-Ukraine war.

[@bmva8263]

Imagine if you invade Afghanistan for 22 years to change the regime and then you leave and its the same regime in power?

[@useritiswhatitis4655]

@@bmva8263 It's been nothing but loses and concessions after WW2 but all that indoctrination the US puts through media and schooling keeps everyone thinking America always wins and is the best country in the world.

[@aaronbaker2186]

​@@bmva8263was that how long the USSR was in Afghanistan before you lost?

[@Ru_Imperialist]

​@@aaronbaker218610 лет. После чего правительство продержалось 3 года.

[@Dudush90]

ye but imagine in that also that EU and Russia would be pumping to Mexico 800bilions +- and weapons...