Doyne Farmer: Taking Stock of Complexity Economics 1/5

[@heckler73]

Doyne Farmer starts at 6:00

[@vonGleichenT]

That was a big finish at the end. Interesting perspective to look from the bottom up. Reminds me of looking up from the poor to the rich. Instead of the other way around.

[@lzhfc5647]

There's some misunderstandings with the speaker about complexity of the financial markets. financial crisis by definition means the market crashed, while with complexity the market can evolve but never crash.

[@lzhfc5647]

the speaker seems to have got the entire topic wrong. the model he talks about was a business forecast model, which has little to do with economics. economics is mainly concerned with public policy that can be derived from economic theory. please do not confuse business studies with economics.

[@lzhfc5647]

the problem with working on financial data is that financial markets is not the real economy. in the real economy uncertainties may not play as an important role, while expectations may go beyond reasonable in financial markets. theories that work in financial markets may not applicable with the real economy.

[@LaureanoLuna]

Extremely interesting. Complex system theory as applied to economics explains many phenomena the neoclassical equilibrium based approach simply can't account for.

[@lzhfc5647]

another problem with the presentation is that emergence property can also arise with the neoclassical economics. for example, the welfare properties of general equilibrium can only emerge as a system tribute. none of its components neither consumers nor firms possess these properties.

[@jayrenbiz]

i think you got the name of this speaker wrong/////

[@lzhfc5647]

the comment on economic content is a bit strange. of course, if you publish a paper in economic journals you need to write within the realm of economics. the speaker appears concerned only with prediction but have no interest in economic theory. economic forecasting is not economics. like any forecasting work one can do that without theories.