Drop Probability | The First Descendant

[@supervegha7958]

There's unlucky and then there's me: Doing Slumbering valley 144 times to get the grappling hook mod, then using all amorphous patterns and not getting a single 3% and 1 6% drop opening all of those

[@-Spartan-Lifestyle-]

157 runs with material 59 for the legacy blueprint, got 16 (!) activator blueprints on my way to the blueprint for the gun.

[@digivagrant]

Then me getting U Bunny Code after 5 cracks in the void reactor... My luck isnt depleted for the whole year, right?

[@maphazar7549]

I wish it was a 6% drop rate not a 6% drop chance.

[@maphazar7549]

Yeah I'm easily well over 100 tries for the 6% ult bunny. I don't even expect to ever get it anymore. I just keep opening the amorphus with the belief that it's bugged for me and it actually can't drop.

[@tolee98]

Did you get it yet ? I'm missing 2 components only . And it's my second day trying 😅

[@johnmadden6126]

I understand probably, but when you run dead bride 8 times and get 7 Smithereen nano tubes. 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

[@TotoBoto-fp1sb]

I did 100 outpost runs that have morph reward and i got only 7 of them and they have 20% drop and you get 1 by finishing outpost and 1 by successful inflitration, so two chances of 20% drop. Something is wrong with those % i would bet on it.

[@deanhaden7279]

Agreed. A free to play game with high drop rates (20%) would not be good business for the developer. I think certain rates are advertised as higher than they actually are so you are then tempted to go and just by a descendant (for example) instead of farming for amorphous (advertised as 20% but in reality more like 5-10%.......).

[@EchoDoctrine]

Agreed. Especially when you successfully do a Sharen invis stealth and beat it that way. AND still NO drop. Look the grinders & streamers can argue all day this is probability math get gud etc etc BUT IF players get mad and quit Nexon loses money

[@samst-louis9389]

​@@EchoDoctrine And that's happening right now, peoples are sick of running the same missions/bosses over and over again, games are supposed to be fun...

[@theblackishboy1105]

​@@deanhaden7279 nexon was exposed for lying about probabilities and stuff so it's likely none of the values mean anything

[@jefferyreis3551]

Did most people skip math during school? We were taught probability with rolling a dice 60 times. You won't end up rolling each number 10 times.

[@Harmonic14]

If you roll the dice 6 million times, you'll end up rolling each number about 1 million times. Sufficient sample size is important when looking at probability

[@leodorval2236]

You will also never see the same value 10 Times in a row so Im not really sure what you wanna prove

[@el-low6663]

​@@leodorval2236 people think a 6% drop chance item should drop 6 times when you did the same activity 100 times.

[@leodorval2236]

@@el-low6663 sure there are some like that but most just think it should at least drop once in 143 tries tho

[@el-low6663]

@leodorval2236 that's not what OP was talking about though, and 143 tries is unheard of from me, it's a 0.014% chance to happen. Max someone got with proof is 117 tries for a 6% chance item.

[@jordankibbee3441]

Lol, I had to get 25 to get a 20 percent nano for Thundercage and 15 for a Freyna I don't think 20 percent is the real number just saying. A lot of others are having similar experiences. Still have not got a energy activator do not know how many runs

[@AstraKitsune]

People tend to mistake probably for statistics. Statistically it's 10 drops per 100 runs, but in reality it may not even drop once. Same thing in division tho (•-•)

[@raystewart3292]

Love the way you broke this down but ive been trying to get some enhance cells and ive played a mission over 25 times

[@summer7603]

So thats why its usually 38-40 when I grind gravewalker for mushroom blueprints that I get the thing. Thanks for the calculator this is handy.

[@Seven7swords]

I have played lootershooters for a long time and I am 100% convinced some of these drops are bugged. Some 20% drops land at the expected 5 to 20 runs. Some 20% drops literally would not hit in 50 runs for me. Especially outpost when I stealth. I would have 2 separate chances for a 20% drop and not get either of them to land in 25 runs. The probability of that is less than getting hit by lightning. I know some people expect drops in 5 runs. I am not one of them. I am amazed by doing 20+ runs with a 99% probability and still not get it until run 34 or 53. Am I that constantly unlucky for certain drops? Or is that drop bugged? Also, there has to be something said for sample size. The sample size of people complaining about this is very large.

[@sunbreaker1758]

what about the equation 1-(1-p)^n that other people who calculated probability used that model consecutive runs and is also used for the probability spanning tree?

[@armanec342]

Dude this math doesn’t make a sense because you have 4 items in amorphous doesn’t that change the whole calculation?

[@DodRegnbue]

Yes and no. Yes if there are 2 or 3 things you want/need. But on the basis of farming a singular, which is what most people do. Regardless of you getting X, Y or Z. You wanted A. So your chances are. 10% to get A or 90% to not get A, regardless of what else drops.

[@Z.Placeholder]

Thanks for the calculator link, I've been doing the calcs manually (which is not hard, just a bit annoying)

[@RagePsssPsss]

Judging by my luck after 25 runs ill still be stuck with that 0.3 something. lmao

[@snp3rshot122]

I really got lucky with one of them ultimate bunny parts then 😅 got it randomly doing one of the bosses or something lol

[@coldfries8976]

I do get lucky drops ngl. But i never seem to get the stuff i'm actually farming. It's all RNG after all, it all comes down to your perseverence.

[@Lordhakai241]

"Welcome to the grind" 😂 Most people will walk away or go back to warframe. Theyre cooked if they dont change this

[@minzekatze]

i doesnt carry over but not hitting a 20% 34 times in a row is so unlikely that it literally shouldnt happen.

[@minzekatze]

also look up "nexon maplestory probability manipulation" they already got sued for rigging drop rates and got sanctioned by the korean government and its proven that almost all numberss in the game are inaccurate from dps and damage shown in the end of a mission to literal fire rate so you can assume that the drop rates are also made up bs if they cant even get any numbers right

[@minzekatze]

also ive seen people talk about the rols being memory based so if you start the game the drop table for everything gets generated which means if youre unlucky you could basically do the same material over and over again and not get the part you want even if its a 30% + one so try restarting your game if you didnt get what you want after like 5 tries i cant fully back up my claim but in my 240 hours ive had many instances where i farmed with friends and we often got the same 2-3 parts multiple times in a row for example i got a ulti bunny part 3 times, gley code 2 times and most kyle parts 2-4 times a row and even if it isnt true and doesnt work a restart once in a while never hurts

[@itsreapernecrosis2215]

Yes i agree with this video. But also on the opposite end, there comes a point where improbability, becomes improbable. If someone throws a die down, and you roll that shit 20 times, and 10 of those times it comes up with a 6. Congrats im checking you for a weighted die. Fact is, without you running sufficiently comprable data, you cant argue either way. Run one amorphous material 1000 times to get a statistical average based off of materials given and itll give you a clearer picture of what the drop rates actually are. I was doing 100 runs for one of sharens missions, got kinda lazy after the last hot fix and stopped at 60. But my first piece dropped at attempt 33, my second piece dropped at around 58, ive done 60 in total, idk maybe ill finish the next 40 by the end of the week. But even on runescapes probability checker it says "hey this might be bugged." Alot more testing needed, but i think its silly to refute peoples skepticism with people that are known for liquidating drop ratios behind peoples backs and have been sued for it without proper data. I still aknowledge that yah probability can be a bitch and thats how it is, because there just isnt enough data to prove or disprove. But if we really wanna make videos like this, do the testing, present your findings to conclude you hypothesis. Run missions 100 times, run several missions 100 times, run missions for the last piece you need on multiple ultimates with equivulant chances to test that out and see how their probabilities actually match up. Etc. Test it.

[@DodRegnbue]

True, though this is mostly just to dispell the illusion that 20% means 5 runs, or 10% means 10 runs. It might do, might be lucky, but often not.

[@VaporGearhead]

Dynamic loot system. The more you play your drop rate goes down.

[@DodRegnbue]

They confirmed this is not the case here and released all of their drop rate data on the Korean Website.

[@MarkJohnson81]

Thank you for the information

[@richgannon6897]

Same here energy activators 50% percent of the time and the rest 10 and 20. The 32 percent are non-existent.

[@mikewillis7261]

This game is fun but when a Trancendant module has a 1% chance to drop I’m not interested in this long term. There’s waste of time and there’s frustration. When you have both it’s stupid.

[@loganharvey8086]

Still trying to figure this one out. Went private to farm outposts with Sharen on hard. 63 outposts cleared while stealth. 0 amorphous material drops. Feels bad man

[@happykiwi]

It's for this reason that I sometimes prefer to get amorphous materials from infiltration operations because at least one is guaranteed at the end of it

[@loganharvey8086]

@@happykiwi for sure. I wish they would just roll random modifiers for the public groups instead of forcing you to do them without any. Trying to matchmake feels pointless since everyone wants that extra loot

[@happykiwi]

@@loganharvey8086 i think they should have a public option for no modifiers and another public option with all modifiers enabled. it would simplify things and enable people to farm what they want without needing to recruit people through chat

[@brunomonteiro7788]

Feel you. Been there, been farming lepic ult BP and got it this morning. Im crafting him now, but i can really afford to play much. It required about 3 days to gather it all, and by that i mean resources too, Ive required about 14 amorphs materials 89 to get it. And also dropped 18 amorphs 88 for ajax ult BP too.

[@EchoDoctrine]

Yep. The game is bugged that’s NOT right that should NOT be how it works. Streamers can scream thats should be a grind yeah well when all the casuals quit playing and Nexon loses money and streamers lose clicks & views maybe they wake up

[@TylerDurdenXIII]

I make 40 run to get last part of Freyna in escorte mission and i get Gley Ultimate pièce from devouer hard mode in 2 try 😂😂😂 this game is broke

[@punpun8910]

I wish the energy activators BP dropped for me, I've never gotten one. I've tried target farming them nothing, passive farming them going for other stuff. Im on my 3rd ultimate descendent with around 5 or 6 ultimate weapons Crafted.

[@Allnight0911]

Ya math is real and 300 runs no energy activator yet

[@EchoDoctrine]

What’s the probability players quit playing because of bad drop rates…. What’s the probability of Nexon losing sales 💰 …. Well well well maybe they should increase that 3% chance me thinks. Or lose players AND players wallets !!

[@DodRegnbue]

steamcharts.com/app/2074920 Seems pretty stable thus far.

[@EchoDoctrine]

@@DodRegnbue it’s week 2. Yeah.

[@TheFugitive51]

Was one of the people getting probability wrong JD?

[@DodRegnbue]

I do not think he is that "'Murica"!

[@Turbulance16]

Only spicy take I have is I farmed a 20% drop rate yesterday literally over 60 replays and never got it.

[@deanhaden7279]

yep me too, 46 runs last night for a 20% and nothing.

[@darksaviorx001]

im on 95 runs for ult bunny part at 3% after 3 days still nothing. i think after like 200 runs ill just stop this game aint no way im spending all that time for one part its not fun or entertaining its frustration and boring game will fade away if this stay the wat it is.

[@kujop1]

If this is true then we’re all stupid for playing these games, cause that is just an unreasonable way to distribute loot. My play hasn’t reflected this. At 20% I usually get what I’m looking for about every four or five tries so idk

[@gferd]

75 tries for 6% ? How long i must camp in outpost (25% chance to drop upon successfull infiltrate), then farm necessary fragment for void reactor to open it.

[@PsYcO9iKiLl9YaH]

in my experience getting the catalysts and the activators is not that tedios, they take a long time to craft and by the time you finished one you will atleast have one more ready to go. you will get them as a "side prduct" while farming for ultimates and weapons. i always have around 3 catalysts ready. activators are ass because of the crafting time but the positive is you only use one per^^

[@gferd]

@@PsYcO9iKiLl9YaH Ah for now, i'm after ultimate ajax parts than only 6% from outpost amorph. I don't understand why "starting" descendant (Lepic, Viessa, Ajax) part have high chance to drop on hard mode, while on hard mode people choose to farm ultimate one. I still don't have any ajax till now. That's why i'm concentrate farming him.

[@PsYcO9iKiLl9YaH]

@@gferd i mean to get a decent base frame its good if they have a high drop chance and for mastery rank, thats something most people forget about, if i never plan to play ajax for example, why would i farm the ultimate one if i can go with the normal one and just get him to max level for mastery rank and at the end of the day its the same as in warframe, Prime/ultimate are the ones you want anyway. all you need is a good starter you like and thats why drop chances are higher on normal versions i would say

[@minzekatze]

@@PsYcO9iKiLl9YaH because farming ultimates is literally the only content of the game outsside bossing

[@PsYcO9iKiLl9YaH]

@@minzekatze thats a you problem, the issue with "content" these days is all the whiny kids are never satisfied with anything. if you need a reward to do something thats on you, i can go for a walk becuase i like it, i dont need to get something to do something. i totaly get your point dont get me wrong but i do still play the division 2 for example,i got everything, because i like the game,mechanics,look or whatever, there is no loot i need. its hard for people to just enjoy something.

[@drasticbubble1223]

i farmed 20 of each material that had ultimate bunny and i got each part within those 20 but i just got ult lepic and it took me 80 materials for the catalyst lol i dont care tho the game is fun

[@XReflexian]

Trying to get a 3% item right now ....................... Well aware that it might take 1 up to infinite times to get it ...... im at 30 now. If only it was true that 30 times makes the 3% change a 90% chance

[@DodRegnbue]

It would certainly be nice.

[@matthewgill2695]

25 seconds in... I'm sad, i knew this was coming! Probability is heart breaking to listen to.... Let me believe that 20% is 1/5, why you do this to me dod! My faith, its broken.....why can't you tell me that if you go talk to an npc before doing a mission the odds change in your favour? why you gotta do all these facts and stuff?.....arggg, fiiiiine...... One way I looked at probability is not personal probability, but server probability... I don't know the maths so take the logic and run with it... Whats the probability of players getting a 10% drop first time? lets say its 10% of players get it... and 20% of players get it within 5 tries, and 30% of players within 10 tries... ect ect ect... then 1% of players still don't get it within 45 tries... then when I'm in the unlucky bunch rather than going its my personal probabilty, i think more i'm party of x% of people. again, i don't have the maths for this, but i have the logic for it. Your method is heart wrenching to hear >_< but facts are facts

[@ne0fenris]

And unlike the gacha games kids are getting used to, there is no pity on loot tables.

[@ChancySanah]

fun fact: 10% chance is not the same as 1 in 10

[@TamerSpoon3]

actual fun fact: 10% chance is the same as 1 in 10 but not the same as 10/1 or 10 to 1 odds, which is actually 1 in 11 or 9.09% chance.

[@Wolfpaxrunning]

​​​@@TamerSpoon3actual facts that aren't fun. No, 10% is not the same as 1 in 10. You are confusing statistics and probability, which was the point of this video. Edited to add, you can test this yourself, roll a 10 sides die 10 times, if every number doesn't come up at least once, that should prove the 10% isn't 1 in 10.

[@minzekatze]

youre confusing the fact that 10/100 is not the same ass 1/10 which would be correct but 1/10 chance is literally a 10% chance

[@Wolfpaxrunning]

@minzekatze roll a 10 side die 100 times, if you don't get each number 10 times, 10% is not 1 in 10, you are confusing statistics and probability

[@panchozo7365]

Bro, i think most of the peopple that cry over drop rates, never played a looter shooter before or any rpg, this game has a lot better drops rates than destiny and warframe 😂 the problem is that the game is so good, many people try for the first time a game like this and cry over drops, casuals will leave the game for good

[@edjonhadley1]

this game does NOT have better drop rates then destiny it's so easy to get stuff in destiny from my experience anyway

[@darksaviorx001]

your are absolutely wrong saying warframe has worse drop rates that is not true at all. this game by far has the worst drop rates ive seen. i play warframe and division 2, im ok with not getting stuff right away but over 95 runs for one part is stupid. also warframe had a pity system so they save you the misery of wasting your time.