Early Analysis: N880Z - Learjet 35A Crash December 27, 2021 El Cajon San Diego, CA

On December 27, 2021, a Learjet 35A crashed into a neighborhood in El Cajon, Calif., killing the pilot, copilot, and two flight nurses. No one on the ground was injured. The airplane, operating under Part 135 of the FAA regulations as an air ambulance flight, was returning to its home base at Gillespie Field (KSEE) after its third and final flight of the day. Weather conditions at the time of the accident were three miles visibility in light mist at night under layers of scattered and broken clouds at 1,100 and 2,000 feet above ground level (AGL), respectively.
In Early Analysis: N880Z, the AOPA Air Safety Institute makes a preliminary assessment of the accident, addressing notable portions of the tragic flight and highlighting areas the NTSB will likely investigate to determine a probable cause.
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[@AirSafetyInstitute]

UPDATE: The National Transportation Safety Board has released its preliminary report (WPR22FA068) regarding the investigation into the El Cajon, CA Learjet 35A (N880Z) accident. data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/104445/pdf

[@julesviolin]

That is one crazy place for a runway. Absolutely ludicrous in a built up area next to a hill !

[@BadMonkeyTouring]

We were doing our UPRT recurrent training in the Falcon 7X simulator a few days after this accident. After fulfilling the required training, the instructor asked if there was anything else we wanted to do. Though the simulator database does not have KSEE in it, we were able to try this maneuver, using the exact same weather conditions, speeds, and altitudes, configured for a circling approach. I can tell you that in these conditions, keeping the airport in sight was near impossible. When I demonstrated over banking (45 degrees), the nose dropped and there was no way to recover. With the critical wing of the Lear 35A, this was a death sentence. So sad that this occurred.

[@brinkee7674]

This is what I have been saying to others. You were lucky and got to try something on the sim. Most pilots in for training(Flight Safety) do an approach to either JFK or Memphis which is easy as pie. Use something harder like Teterboro and that would prepare more pilots correctly. I'll bet they didn't even have a DMMS(Defined Min Maneuvering Speed) figured for their settings, which may of not mattered anyway

[@jeffreymcneal1507]

@@brinkee7674 Useful insight, but why didn't the stall warning sound??

[@alcareruelennesse8819]

@@jeffreymcneal1507 The airspeed was still high, I'm not sure if others have mentioned that the 35A has a high airspeed stall speed if you go into a steep banked turn. Before the final spin down the pilot went into a more then 45 degree turn and then pulled up on the nose. Not sure of the way it was configured at the time of the accident. Also for this pilot he was used to this manuver into this airport as it was their home base. Plus they were so low already that the time to sound a warning might not have been long enough to sound off. Or it might not have been picked up as he kept the mic open.

[@RandThePilot]

FWIW, I am a CFII and Gillespie Field is my home base. The airport's METAR (reported weather) 20 minutes before the accident was a 2000' (Above Ground Level) Ceiling of broken clouds with only 3 miles visibility which should have given them plenty of room to enter a normal left traffic pattern at 1000' AGL and maneuver to land on Runway 27 Right. it's important to remember that that is what the pilots were expecting. At Gillespie Field in the early night hours with unsettled weather as it had been all day, a 20 minute METAR is already quite stale. It is VERY likely that an unreported, scattered layer of clouds were forming below the ceiling. The METAR after the crash confirms such a layer had formed. This new layer would have forced the now-VFR flight to fly the pattern very close to the ground, which they in fact did. Remember, the field elevation is almost 400 feet above sea level. They crossed the airport less than 400 feet above the runways! As you said, there is much we don't know, but I will tell you from my own experience his turn to downwind is way too close for a 130 knot airplane. Why did he do this? Poor visibility makes everything seem farther away than they are. It also gives the illusion that one is higher than is the case. My guess is that, because of the unreported (at that time) clouds he flew unusually low to avoid them and due to the poor visibility it didn't feel that low to him. He turned a close downwind, but again, because of the poor visibility and the low altitude, it didn't seem all that close either. He then turned what he thought was a normal base leg and found that he was low, close, fast and pointed at Rattlesnake Mountain, the terrain that sits just north of final approach to 27R. With a windshield full of mountain (the first expletive) he steepened the bank, he saw the houses were very close below him (the second expletive), he pulls hard and he gets an abrupt stall (the final expletive). The saddest part is, had he stayed IFR he could have legally flown a circle-to-land approach to the same strip of pavement, but in the opposite direction. Runway 9 Left is available to land from a circling approach at night, unlike 27 Right and the winds were light and mostly from the south so wouldn't have been a problem. If he had done this and he lost orientation to the runway, he would have been able to execute an IFR missed approach procedure and climbed away from danger.

[@maxtaylor4638]

Unfortunately and as Sad as this incident is, we find that a lot of these Superfast Lear Jet pilots garner a 'HotDog' cavalier persona which manifests itself sometimes but to deadly results. It's a culture that takes unnecessary and risky manoeuvres that the FAA should clamp down on. Stick by the book!

[@maxtaylor4638]

If you're not certain about your height - always climb to be safe _ it's that simple.

[@scottsmith7051]

Thanks for that explanation. Always good to get a local's view on things.

[@lucasbrien5008]

These case studies are a must-watch for any pilot.

[@ostapbendervan7874]

non pilots love it

[@dmedlin8118]

AOPA ASI publishes accident records for many major airframes. My instructor insisted I buy and read the report for my airframe. Best to learn from someone else's mistakes.

[@daveg-Vancouver_Island]

I’m petrified of flying but still it still interests me!

[@VASAviation]

Thanks for this fantastic analysis. It's extremely important that us pilot make notes of others' mistakes, factors and debriefs so we avoid future accidents.

[@johnkeith2450]

Hopefully we will see more company ops specs that prohibit night circle to lands outright or way higher mins

[@badmonkey2222]

That need to start training part 135 pilots to be required more than vref+5 on circling approaches only then will these people stop crashing these jets.

[@fiveoboy01]

@@badmonkey2222 you keep saying this but my experience and that of many other pilots contradicts your VREF+5 claim. Furthermore pilots are warned about approach speeds in pattern and circling work from day 1, you are talking like nobody ever told them anything and then boom, stall spin.

[@badmonkey2222]

@@fiveoboy01 No that's not what i'm talking like, i'm talking like somebody that knows what's only required to be taught in flight school because my dad was a CFI and i'm a GA pilot with 452-hrs and I sat in on many of his classes and he talks about the lack of urgency by the FAA on this matter as well. There is literally one page that most instructors go over dealing with vref speeds and they do not spend a lot of time on circling approach procedures unless some of them press it more which few do because they're not required by law to attain a type rating. Ask yourself why every month there's at least one of these learjets falling out of the sky like a rock because of accelerated stalls or flat spins. Watch Dan Gryder's video on this accident he talks about the same exact thing and he like my father has over 30 years of experience in flying these jet types.

[@fiveoboy01]

@@badmonkey2222 LOL, I knew it. A Gryder bot. You’re just regurgitating that idiot, no point in even conversing with you further.

[@sparky47807]

The words of one of my CFIs comes to mind: "The need to circle to land at anything close to minimums is just as much a need to divert."

[@adeptavatar9394]

@@EJM1701 And having to thread between two mountains. All while being a few hundred feet below where they should have been. Just really bad decisions.

[@prankurmalhotra2699]

@@EJM1701 ​the approach plate states unauthorized at night and there is no RNAV on 27 and hence circling to land visual. i would have tried to make that runway.

[@williampotter2098]

After many years as an Air Force pilot and then some time instructing (During a previous recession) I was in the lobby where two grizzled jet pilots were hanging out. One said to the other that "I will never circle at night". I had never really thought about it specifically. Flying heavies in the AF they never would have us do that. If available, at night we were required to use BOTH an ILS and a PAR which gave us two glide-slopes. A circling approach would have been out of the question. Of course, we were just kids doing a adult's job. I took on that pilot's philosophy and still think about it often. As pilots who want to live through a whole career, we must learn to say NO.

[@Saltlick11]

Excellent overview. Having flown this approach many times, my hunch is, in part, that they rolled out onto Base/Final and saw the mountain and cranked in an unintentional impulse hard over. You raised a few very key points that aren't available elsewhere, 1) Vref speeds in line for a stabilized 17 approach and landing and 2) airspeed/configuration questions related to stall speed (as well as the lack of horns). Outstanding report. RIP to all involved.

[@CAROLUSPRIMA]

I think you’re correct. This could explain the seemingly adequate speed and also, unfortunately, the sudden surprise and consequent expletives.

[@richardmcspadden9189]

Thanks for your comments, especially valuable given your experience on this approach.

[@5milessep]

I think you’re right with the mountain scenario, but would they see it at night along with the prevailing clouds ? But if they did see it, a gut reaction to hard over to avoid would make sense.

[@guilhermecostadacruz2158]

Seems spacial disorientation at very low altitude without time for recover. I would consider icing formation as well.

[@fiveoboy01]

@@guilhermecostadacruz2158 icing would not have been an issue. The temp was 11 degrees which is over 50F, well above freezing.

[@SeaMonkey137]

I remember one of my first night landings in primary I was circling to land and searching for the runway lights. I was young and kind of cocky and felt I had everything under control. Suddenly I heard the instructor pilot calmly say one word over the com: airspeed. Thinking he was just being "an old lady" and saying "airspeed" because he didn't have anything else to do during such a flawlessly executed landing, I took a quick glance at the A/S. To my horror I was ~10 kts slower than I'd ever thought I could be. I took a wave off and instantly earned respect for cockpit focus, night disorientation, and instructor pilots. RIP to the crew.

[@jackrillema7423]

Night flying in Primary????

[@SeaMonkey137]

@@jackrillema7423 Yes, night flying not IFR.

[@nadogrl]

Oh, the misplaced confidence of youth…😊

[@EvanGLooney]

The picture of your father on the shelf brings back some great memories for me. That airplane was beautiful in person. He sure was living his best life in his hanger/man cave. I remember visiting him many times as I took flying lessons at that airport. He was such a genuine man and I’m sure would be proud of everything you are doing for the aviation community.

[@MrMdrifat]

I live on the ridge west of the airport and trained there. This crew had a history of making this pass switching from a 17 approach to a circling maneuver to 27 at very low altitudes and often very fast. The clouds were very low, unbroken, with drizzle. The bottom line is this was scud running and hot dogging it. I mourn those on board but this is a lesson in avoidable accidents by pilots who should know better, especially with their experience with this field. In a bind? Get some altitude and time to reassess your options. There is no sin in finding an alternate field like Brown and waiting out the weather. The consequences of rushing it based on old habits are deadly.

[@lavaper8575]

How do you know about the crews history making this pass?

[@RedDog56]

If you are correct, and can know for sure that this crew had a history of flying the circling approach, and a history of "Hot Dogging" have you contacted the FAA and or the NTSB?

[@antonroland]

@@RedDog56 are you posing this question with reference to this specific accident or prior reporting of similar historic incidents?

[@TheLizardKing72]

@@lavaper8575 literally... the first part basically states they woukd know, because they live by the airport. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Seems like the choice of airport for home base was bad if they regularly flew a circle to land under hazardous conditions to avoid the shorter runway. I wonder what other options were available.

[@boeingpilot7002]

One thing not mentioned in most of the videos I've watched about this accident is that both RWY 17 and 27R have significant displaced thresholds, which reduce the landing distance available. RWY 17 is 4145' long, minus 450' DT = 3695' available. RWY 27R is 5342' long, minus 706' DT = 4636' available. The difference between them is 941' of landing distance available. I believe that it would've been better to divert, either to SD - Lindbergh, or to SD - Brown, given the weather conditions AND to not cancel IFR, to allow for a legal missed approach. I think that this was a case of "last leg, get-home-itis", something that is very hard to combat when you're heading back to base.

[@nadogrl]

Is the DT because of the 52 freeway on the north, and N. Magnolia Ave. on the East side of the runways?

[@57Jimmy]

It appears they lost the primary goal to fly safe first and do a work-around that obviously bypasses IFR safety procedures. It seems as if ego may have crept in clouding the fact that he has the LIVES of three other people as well as their families riding with him, solely trusting his ability to keep them safe.

[@Tyleraviator99]

Or they could’ve done the localizer 27

[@johnkeith2450]

@@Tyleraviator99Loc D is undoable in a Lear

[@tjgali1111]

@@Tyleraviator99 that approach is a Localizer D. It’s meant to be followed by a circle to land on another runway. If you read the approach chart, the MDA (Minimum Decision Altitude) is 1940 for their class C aircraft. Like I said, those are circling minimums. The descent profile is way too steep (6.88 and most are 3.0) to fly this approach straight into RWY 27. Even if you were going to try and bend things to do this approach straight in (goes literally against basic stabilized descent approach rules) you could only descend to 2700 until inside 4 DME from The Localizer. Ceilings were too low.

[@cybersquire]

Excellent analysis as always. Since this was their home base, I wouldn’t be surprised if they have done this same maneuver before in marginal conditions. If so, that familiarity could have led to overconfidence that got them in a fatal situation. Sad that a crew dedicated to saving lives would lose their own.

[@TheJstewart2010]

I suspect that this was not the first time that the cancelled IFR workaround was used in this way, and even though it may have violated the spirit of the rule, it was OK because it always worked before. Until it didn't. To adapt an old joke about the police and criminals, "The safe may get unlucky once, but the unsafe have to be lucky every time."

[@Sports-Jorge]

I think it’s important to note that they were not 100% backed into a corner by going VFR. If you’re ever in their situation (past declaring VFR), you can absolutely do a go around; climb into the clouds, declare an emergency and get pop up IFR. They knew climbing and continuing a standard bank towards the West would avoid terrain. Better to have to talk to the FAA the next day then not have a next day. Obviously the better choice was to just divert, but they still had options even as they kept descending to maintain VFR.

[@pjstew]

That was my only gripe with this video. If you inadvertently enter IMC while flying VFR that absolutely 100% constitutes an emergency and thus enables emergency PIC authority to deviate from regs to the extent necessary to handle said emergency. Executing the published missed approach for the approach procedure you just used and picking up a pop up IFR on the go should be a no brainer in this case. In an emergency you should leave nothing on the table.

[@russelllowry1061]

Night flying is a whole different ball of wax, as any pilot knows. Sounds like get home itis , and being comfortable with your home field might have made these pilots complacent. I know from experience that at night your home field can look like anything but home. A part of us all die in the pilot community anytime we lose a fellow pilot. We have to learn from others mistakes, and as long as we are human, we will make them. Condolences to all involved.

[@glassesstapler]

Absolute gem of a channel and a necessary and vital part of the industry. Salute!

[@johnschneider4160]

This is so much better than the long-winded "probable cause" guy. Thank you for the facts without opinions.

[@toma5153]

Amen!

[@BigBen621]

There's a factual error at 4:16. The narrator states that the request for runway lights to be turned up comes as the plane enters left downwind for 27R. In fact, a comparison between the ATC tape and ADS-B data shows that this request came when they were a couple of miles north of the airport, and still on the RNAV 17 approach. Not sure what this changes, but for one thing it means that the request was *not* made because they lost sight of the runway after turning to the east, as some have claimed.

[@ccharles848]

That’s what I thought.

[@dokostudios]

Possibly mistook Christmas lights on Pepper Dr for dim runway lights from a distance through fog. When the tower told him the lights were already up he realized he wasn't where he thought he was and adjusted too much.

[@GeorgeSemel]

Well, I retired last April first after almost 45 years of professional flying all of it in GA Part 91 135 and 133 in helicopters. When I was flying canceled checks.I learned real quick about circling approaches. Yeah, you have to do them from time to time because well weather is well the weather, but only went circling approaches are authorized on the plate. Short cuts will end you, there are reasons why the approaches to a given airport are charted and limits published. These two should have gone missed and to their alternate. I wonder what the culture in that company is like and why they had to cheat so to land at an airport I would not fly into at night with all the sprawl and obstructions around, and short for a jet to boot. I would have gone missed and most likely gotten fired before the cool-down checklists were completed. EMS flying is the pits.

[@36minutesago7]

Hi, what an awesome career you must have had, do you miss it? Do you still fly recreationally?

[@donabney1719]

Of the multiple personalities who’ve chosen to offer an analysis of this incident, I do certainly appreciate your professionalism and respectful approach the most 😏. We all know what happened here. We don’t need to sensationalize the events in some self serving way. Please keep doing what you do.

[@FamilyPilot]

As always we appreciate you Richard and AOPA. I do appreciate these quick AOPA videos being put out while the longer lead time videos from Air Safety are AMAZING these quick reviews are great to jog all our minds on what we can learn regardless of the root cause.

[@T_210]

As mentioned, the aircraft/air medical transport company was based there at Gillespy, I'd be amazed this practice hadn't been established/used by other of their pilots. This pilot knew back at John Wayne he needed the longer runway. Easy enough to find out if others have done the same.

[@ericmcleod7825]

Exactly... this must be a typical operation. I'd say the root cause of the accident is basing an Air Medical operation using a Lear 35 out of Gillespie. KSEE is just not suitable for a 24/7 operation flying a Lear 35.

[@nadogrl]

Yes, my thoughts as well. Why didn’t they schedule 27A to begin with?

[@afreightdogslife]

If any of the other pilots from this air ambulance company, did operated the Lear 35 in a similar fashion going into Gallespy in bad weather and at night, they are not going to talk. It will be a hearsay and innuendo type of investigation between the FAA and the air ambulance crew.

[@tymatt4555]

@@ericmcleod7825ya why put the airplane there. It’s just to short, and with no suitable approach to a long enough runway. Also the pilots were very low time in type.

[@badmonkey2222]

Part 135 pilots are not getting the training they need, only one page in class referencing vref speeds and they put no stress on it whatsoever, they are only required vref+5 even on circling approaches which leaves no room for error and quite frankly is insane especially in notoriously unforgiving learjets. Before the airline's outlawed circling approaches they were required vref +30 so why aren't these pilots being taught the same?! There's a reason you see this happening over and over and over and it's going to keep happening and people are going to keep dying badly and quickly until these guys are getting trained properly.

[@davidw3281]

I was a flight nurse with these pilots in this plane as of early 2021. Great guys. I never felt unsafe with them. So sad.

[@timrobinson6573]

Damn, when the narrator said 'flight nurses' I was picture some cute honeys in white nurses outfits.

[@ninjamama8784]

Great crew. They stayed at the hotel where I work. Our staff is devastated to say the least. May they all rest in pease.

[@sludge8506]

Sympathy to you, David.

[@sludge8506]

@@timrobinson6573 How old are you?

[@jameshuggins7320]

You’re doing important work, Richard. Please keep these early analysis videos coming - they save lives.

[@PARTner91]

Well presented, Richard. Looking forward to seeing the facts uncovered during the investigation. My condolences go to the family and friends of those who were onboard.

[@Nebula_Ultra]

Ok as long as they have Steve Thompsons condolences.

[@michaelh8890]

Its great to see AOPA/ASF issuing these rational, factual, non- hysterical & non judgemental videos so soon after the accident, when the topic is still 'hot.' Well done; hopefully this will help pilots learn about some of the potential traps out there.

[@toma5153]

Agreed Michael. Some of the more outrageous KZbin air incident channels might be fun to listen to, but you're left having to filter out unjustified speculation. AOPA is playing catch up on being timely without going overboard.

[@kingpin6989]

I'm really loving these early analysis videos, but I mean I love all content from this channel. I could watch multiple new videos a day on here.

[@bw162]

There is a reason some airlines no not authorize even published circle-to-land approaches.

[@wrxpilot]

Well, they do them (I’ve done them myself), but it’s definitely a VFR only maneuver for most US airlines.

[@bw162]

@@wrxpilot Juan at Blancolirio, on his channel, stated that there is at least one. He didn’t state if it was the major he flew for. I said “published approaches” so obviously I was referring to IFR approved approaches, not VFR. I’ve been retired for a long time so can’t provide more info.

[@jamesavery6015]

Circling configuration for the Lear 35 is gear down, flaps 20, and VRef+20 while maneuvering…up to 30 degrees of bank. Once you’re in a position to leave MDA and make a landing using normal maneuvers, the pilot flying should call leaving minimums flaps full. The speed now is V ref +10 requiring about 65-68% N1. The Lear 35 doesn’t have an aural stall warning but it does have a shaker and a pusher as well as stall warning lights. The ADS-b speed data doesn’t strike me as being too slow; however, if you over bank a Learjet and unload the wings it will drop like a rock even if it’s not stalled. I’m guessing this is what might have happened during tight maneuvering in this situation. In any case it’s very sad and my deepest sympathy for their family and friends. We are all human and we make mistakes. What is for certain is that we all will die and we will all be judged by God. We can’t save ourselves, only by Christ can we be saved.

[@danielrn133]

It may be "certain" to you but leave me out of your christ BS.

[@mwp1088]

Thanks so much for these new format videos. I am a lower hour PPL and am trying to take in advice and tips wherever I can. ASI and AOPA is a fantastic resource for this, keep up the good work!

[@woofna1948]

I'm not a pilot, but as part of my job, I analyze paddling accidents in search of causality and also to extract lessons learned. I watch ASI videos because they give me a greater appreciation for common factors that many accidents share. You've highlighted the trap that complacency lays for anyone who doesn't appreciate it, and certainly complacency was a major factor in setting the stage for this tragedy. It also appears that the PIC's decision resulted in a relatively demanding approach that left no margin for error - another common cause of accidents. What troubles me the most about this particular accident is that apparently, their decision to fly a prohibited approach was SOP for this outfit, and the tower granted them permission to do so. I find that astonishing. Blowing off safety protocols is something that one can sometimes do without consequence. Doing so without encountering any problems reinforces the mistaken notion that the protocol was unnecessary or overblown, and increases that sense of complacency. Then, one day, some factor or otherwise minor error intrudes and results in a fatal outcome. I apologize if I'm just restating what is already obvious to you safety-conscious professional pilots. I was just stunned by this tragedy and the preventable loss of life.

[@flyingmonkeyp00]

Stall speed for Leerjet is 110. At 45° bank, it would be VS+20%, or in this case 132. When looking left and trying to get the airfield in sight, it would be easy to dip just a little too far with airspeed just a little too low. Very sad day for all involved.

[@benth162]

I worked at a company for a few years not two blocks from that airport. If he was only at 500 feet on that turn, he would have been extremely close to the mountain at the east side of that valley. Then they would have to drop very fast to the runway, and at the speed he was supposedly going, he would be dropping out of the sky like a rock because in that tight of a turn he would have lost far too much lift from his wings and with not enough speed for the horizontal stabilizer to keep the nose up thus he stalled falling out of the sky like a rock.

[@apackwestbound5946]

As usual another EXCELLENT analysis. Air Safety Institute is a valuable entity making significant contributions to global aviation safety and education-THANK YOU. Having served as an airline simulator instructor I realized something I had not realized as a line pilot flying turbojet aircraft. It does not happen often in training but what I discovered was how unbelievably rapidly the cockpit environment can change from "routine" to "utter confusion and chaos" with predictably "ugly" results.

[@skybusva]

A stall can occur at any airspeed. The fact that he remained at 130 kts during the circle maneuver is not relevant. What most likely occurred they kept the pattern too tight and to prevent the overshoot he banked and pulled. The Lear 35 has very short wings,

[@FlippinKayaks]

I was also thinking perhaps his speed was fine but he banked too hard, or possibly abused the rudder to try to bring the nose around more quickly.

[@thractrack]

I think his airspeed is definitely still relevant, just not a foolproof indicator of stall. We don’t know his AOA or configuration, so airspeed and altitude are what we have to work with for now. I agree with you otherwise.

[@JasonFlorida]

I thank you for these updates and believe helps with keeping everyone safe through the knowledge you share and learn from these all too often tragic events.

[@opwave79]

Thank you for this early breakdown. I’ve listened to a couple other analyses and some have wondered if he wasn’t looking at the lights of the runway, rather, the street lights, at the time he asked for the runway lights to be turned up. If so it’s likely he did lose spatial orientation at some point during his circle to land.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

I’ve been wondering about this, too. Was he possibly on his descent when he got caught in the wake turbulence of a family minivan? But seriously, it would explain the “oh, shit!” communication after being told runway lights were already at 100%.

[@josephpercel8802]

Keep the new episodes coming. Thanks for your efforts.

[@lordauriel8724]

so they circumvented the prohibited circle -to-land by going vfr, in other words, they cheesed it in order to overcome what they saw as an annoying technicality. At barely more than 1.3x their stall speed.

[@chrisstromberg6527]

I watched about three other you tube aviation experts analyze this accident and was not impressed with there objectivity, depth of investigation, and rush to judgement! This presentation by AOPA is how an analysis should be done, thank you AOPA!

[@davecat1458]

Uhhh...you should be thanking those "KZbinrs" for their posts. AOPA and the FAA are finally feeling the pressure to do their job. By the time the FAA report comes out we will all have forgotten about this accident and the other Part 131 recent circle to land tragedies. This is only the second "early" analysis video put up by AOPA and is no less speculative than the KZbinrs.

[@chrisstromberg6527]

I think we are going to have agree to disagree. I think the very last thing this very industry needs is a rush to judgement.

[@joelleerickson2642]

Excellent work! ASI NEEDS to post more videos more often. These are invaluable to a learning pilot. So glad my AOPA dollars are at work.

[@Holabirdsupercluster]

These early analysis videos are truly excellent

[@N6941G]

Just listened to the full recording of this mishap. Probably one of the most horrific things I’ve heard. Thank you guys for the early breakdown. Hopefully the NTSB ends up shedding even more light on this.

[@afterburner119]

Yep agree, as hard as it is people that should not hear it shouldn’t and the ones that need to, should. Hope that makes sense, I.e. new training corp. pilots.

[@alvon911]

Excellent analysis, sir. I am not in aviation, but I find it fascinating. This incident was a terrible tragedy and you bring up many excellent points and questions.

[@tyler1480]

Make more accident case studies I’m not even a pilot or associated with aviation but these videos are amazing to watch ! Great job!

[@bradylaplante8441]

Right!? I get excited when I get the notification a new one has been released

[@krissbradly587]

Amazing the details and analysis of what is starting to become almost a weekly thing around the country. More and more flights=more and more crashes. I was going over the flight in MSFS 2020, and as I made that sharp left turn for my landing, changing my mind too late or too early depending on who you ask, on which runway. And mindful of the low hills I was approaching, my speed, visibility

[@ScottBub]

Very thorough and informative analysis. Extremely well done. Thanks for sharing!

[@harrisonpowers4265]

Excellent video ASI, I love your investigations a lot and makes me a more confident pilot. Cheers.

[@maineguy1408]

Richard, good analysis and presentation (although watching the video footage of the actual crash is difficult and sad) -- one small item that you omitted and that would be helpful in conveying a better understanding of the accident is that there is no available instrument approach to runway 27 at KSEE (due to terrain), thus the crew's decision to fly the RNAV 17 approach then cancel IFR and visually circle to land on 27. Sadly, they don't get another chance to reconsider that decision but hopefully we all can learn from the outcome. My heartfelt condolences to the families and friends of those that were lost.

[@Strange_Brew]

I wasn’t a stall spin (watch the security video) it was just a stall during a hard turn . He would had to have another 40 knots of air speed attempting that final turn and full thrust during the turn. It was almost identical to the New Jersey accident. The Lear jet was based on the design of the P-16 military aircraft witch does not have a very good agility low speed turns , hence then elongated fuselage and narrow wings. Fatigue, overconfidence and bad weather are a bad mix. He should have just started over with a new approach or to another airport if he didn’t feel comfortable with the landing. I remember my instructor telling me (Ex Vietnam fight pilot)it isn’t the students who crash , it’s the pilots with thousands of hours of flight time. There always should be a high margin of safety in any flight maneuvers.

[@Starboatbuilder]

Hi Brew :you are accurate in stating this. Poor guy, he just dropped straight down. My thinking was " just level the wings and go around". The Lear has the power/speed

[@Strange_Brew]

@@Starboatbuilder the wing tip tanks are also a problem in low speed turns. As he made the 30 degree nose down bank, the air coming over the wing tip tank would have caused a lot of turbulence on the left wing aileron making it useless. At that point, he had zero roll control. There was a joke with pilots of the Starfighter (similar design). “It took 30 miles to turn around.”

[@PhilAndersonOutside]

I am not a pilot (just related to one) and the similarity to the Teterboro accident crossed my mind as well.

[@m118lr]

A fantastic, broad overview of this unfortunate accident..WAY TOO many, too often. Prayers for surviving family members. Thanks..

[@bittnerbs]

Thank you for the great job in this analysis. As a newer IR pilot, I learn a lot from these analyses.

[@TakeDeadAim]

Where the head goes the hands/body follow. The PIC was head out looking for lights, caught sight and chased them. He gave both a slight overbank and some pull with the end result of stalling out the left wing. ALWAYS add a few knots for the family at night on a circling approach in weather just for this reason...

[@johnkeith2450]

To those saying it was not a stall, look at the impact point debris. That thing stalled, rolled, and landed as flat as a pancake.

[@michaelhansen7516]

I was surprised at the small debris field. Seems to indicate the plane flipped over into a nose dive.

[@SP-sy5nq]

Telltale risk factors for a deadly stall: low altitude, low speed, low visibility, and turning.

[@jerryseinfeld9815]

This happened not even a mile away. All i heard was bang then a massive boom. Gillespie field has amazing ATC staff and they’re very dedicated. It is quite strange that 2 crashes happened so close in time in the same area

[@jimchadwick3054]

Very thorough discussion. Glad to be a Life Member of a fine organization that contributes so much to aviation safety.

[@charlesluzier5432]

The Widow maker turn. Thanks AOPA for the video an unfortunately some of the best teachers to learn from are the ones that are no longer with us to share the story from the pilots perspective and we have to remember not to fall in the same spider web traps. Go around!!. RIP

[@jackwilliam6762]

Good on you Air Safety Institute, glad to see you're back to regular posting. Keep it up

[@bobcfi1306]

The real problem here is this Lear Jet should not be operated out of this airport. Any risk analysis of this situation would have to see what a bad choice the “hot” Lear with no night approaches to the long runway because of the terrain. The pilot’s and crew were put in a bad situation.

[@formulaben]

THIS. Wrong airport for this aircraft, period.

[@johnkeith2450]

Safe airport for a Lear 35 in the right conditions....This was not that time.

[@DownTheRabbit-Hole]

RNAV 17 Circle 9L is totally legal. No need to cancel IFR. Circle to L downwind or direct L base near Tomty. NOTE: He can't go below MDA of 1360 LP or Circle 1440msl without field in site. The ceilings must have been at least above that. Why did he descend to 725msl 400 agl? He did a low pass over home base hangar and proceeded to a very unstable approach, with varying speeds, alts, and a pinched base overshoot which led to aggressive bank and accelerated stall. Perfect example of getting behind and an unstable approach leading to accident.

[@johnkeith2450]

Home field, flying the approach they always fly....Complacent

[@DownTheRabbit-Hole]

@@johnkeith2450 Yep.

[@sintillate1913]

Agreed, they should have done RNAV 17 Circle 9L. 9L has 700' more landing distance than 27R. They did RNAV 17 Circle 9L on 12/24 just 3 days before this accident.

[@tmp1111]

Thank you. Very interesting from a non aeronautic person. This was a very sad mishap. California seems to be a place where it can be challenging to fly, due to the quick change in visibility, the mountains, the fog and weather and valleys creating disorientation.

[@suttonmatthew]

Excellent preliminary analysis. Thank you.

[@PersonalWings]

I fly jets personally, professionally, and teach in various types and live in San Diego. The crew were professionals, however I understand how professional aviators, including myself, can make errors. I teach my clients extensively in circle-to-land (CTL) instrument approaches, both since they are required and in the unlikely event they need to use them - IFR or VFR. They carry a high risk, especially at night - as evidenced by accident statistics and I have flown a number of them on IFR approaches. A number of CTL procedures place you at MDAs lower than you would use in a VFR pattern. When combined with night, precipitation, low ceilings, and terrain - even with 100% lights- it can be difficult to see the runway lights and the runway itself due to line-of-sight and angle issues. Rattlesnake Mountain - the hill just to the north of the 27R centerline is an issue and occasionally you will receive a TAWS - Terrain warning on final. As aviators know, when you turn to final and realize sometimes that you may be flying past the centerline there is a tendency to turn steeper, or use more inside rudder, both situations can increase the chance of stalling the aircraft by changing the lift vector on the wings or increase in load factor that increases the stall speed. I'm not stating that this happened with the Lear Jet, since we don't know all the facts, just reminding pilots to beware of that risk - IFR or VFR. I was up today teaching our son for his Instrument Rating and we were flying circle-to-land approaches in San Diego and reviewing the same risk factors associated with these approaches. They can be safe, if the risk can be mitigated. Regretfully in this case the risks appeared to have been too high, even for a very experienced crew. A crew that has previously provided such wonderful service as air ambulance staff on a number of successful flights. This video is a great resource to pilots, and hopefully might help aviators in their future risk management decisions - Rich Pickett

[@superskullmaster]

This channel is golden.

[@nancykaufmann3993]

I’m on the commercial jet flight path to SRQ. They always come in at the same angle, which directly lines up with a runway. The other night a jet came into view but then veered East - not at all normal. I’ve watched so many of these videos that I’m like “missed approach” or some problem with the plane. Then I heard sirens (probably completely unrelated). On FlightAware I could see that it did a big Figure 8 and then got back on the same route and landed. But wow I had all kinds of scenarios going through my head, all from these crash videos!

[@yovirg]

Thank you Richard, well done. QUESTION: did you do analysis like this for N605TR, the Truckee crash on July 26th of 2021? I did not see one in your videos. They seem similar in nature.

[@daszieher]

These videos are valuable, as we can read from many comments here, also to people not directly involved with piloting high performance aircraft. Personally, I also take away learnings with respect to crew coordination, as very often businesses leaders will take decisions without properly consulting with the staff they actually pay to help them. Lessons learned from crew coordination shortcomings are valuable for society beyond aviation.

[@1capcarl]

He may have spotted the approaching rising terrain on his base to final turn and tried to tighten the turn putting the aircraft into an accelerated stall without enough altitude to recover.

[@clintstephens7287]

This.

[@richardmcspadden9189]

Thanks. Interesting possibility.

[@mikeh2520]

Yes and could possibly have also overstressed the airframe to the point of failure.

[@LTVoyager]

@@mikeh2520 Extremely unlikely at that airspeed.

[@michaelhansen7516]

Look at the adsb plot of location data. He clearly botched the circling maneuver and overshot the runway. His low altitude suggests he was behind the situation. Maybe he saw the terrain but it seems likely he banked more to recover alignment and entered an accelerated stall. I don't understand the comments that a missed approach in that situation was not legal. Maybe that knowledge forced him to make it work.

[@1prettygirl87]

Fantastic analysis once again.

[@ElectricUAM]

Fantastic explanation of the potential problems. Very done.

[@jbsack]

Great analysis. One factor I suspect may play a significant part in this accident is the crews experience. Given a single type rating with a possible SOE limitation, suggests they may not have had significant hours in the plane.

[@joshuaowens4797]

Especially a Learjet.

[@wesmcgee1648]

Pilots, especially private jet pilots, need to learn from these tragic deaths. I'll just say avoid get thereitis, stay ahead of your aircraft, and don't fly in a situation that will potentially present multiple problems. Weather, weather, weather. Hang out on the ground and have a good dinner and enjoy life. Then fly when it's clear.

[@hb1338]

Professional pilots are expected fly in all allowed weathers, not just when its clear.

[@HowCommunicationWorks]

Such a helpful analysis. Thank you.

[@sjenesky]

Richard, Great analysis. There is a lot of rubbish out there so this was a very refreshing look that caught my attention immediately.. You presented this with knowledge and a sense of respect for all concerned. Bravo !! Keep it Up.

[@coolmoodee]

The audio was chilling to say the least. Very sad .

[@BlueSky-ub4fx]

Thank you, for this outstanding video! ♥♥

[@johnschneider4160]

Again, thank you for an unbiased, calm and "undramatic" presentation...unlike other opinionated "analysts" appearing on this channel.

[@scottstp7084]

On your next ASI video update on this accident, please discuss the stall speed differences at the steep bank angles that appear to have been needed to bring the aircraft beyond the point of the lost radar track (end of the green line), thru the base to final, to have it ending up crashing down the street on a somewhat westerly (runway) heading

[@nathanwycoff4627]

Always sad to lose people in air accidents, but especially sad when they're performing a great service to society, as air ambulances or firefighting aircraft do.

[@sludge8506]

Yeah, because those pilots are working for free!!

[@YouTube.TOM.A]

After flying full size and wide body Airline equipment for some time, I have to say that i under appreciated the mission of flights like this and the utilizTION of rules that i don't often face in larger aircraft. There has to be a perscribed corcling track and circling minimums for me to attept a circling approach since that to me is a continuation of a IFR clearence or routing to another runwway. I would avoid circling over the higher MDA [minimum decent altitude] in the east of the field, and i would have first attempted a strait in approach to runway 17 which was an adequate performing location. There was a level of accomodation here through the use of such rules as being able to go visual and no longer IFR. but you have well described the greatest challenge to this manuvering chosen, Is that non prescribed circling height an asset or an obsticle to a recognation of the location of the outline of the runway. Unfortunately as the crew may have been strugeling with that aspect of this created easement of navigation, the basics begin to be what is falling by the wayside that of configeration and viability of flight. The fact that the circling to runway 27 Right was not authorised at night may be more than a factor of IFR minimums but an indications of the perils of an attempt to execute without observing a circling minimum / visibility limit.

[@rprince418]

I love how right now this is sitting at 1.3K likes and 10 dislikes. Shows how good this channel is.

[@rjbishop12]

How do you know how many dislikes the video has? KZbin no longer shows count of dislikes.

[@rprince418]

@@rjbishop12 youtube deleted my response to you. Lol. Its an extension you can find online. I dont want to say the name of it because I dont want them to block it.

[@richardthomson4693]

@@rjbishop12 its not real dislikes its an estimation. Goto linus tech tips he talks about it a few days ago

[@HarryBalzak]

Old or bold. Make your choice.

[@boeingav8tr525]

Echos of the crash of N535PC in KASE almost 30 years ago. (night, low vis, steep turn, aircraft returning to home base and possibility of an accelerated stall) We need to realize, the LR35 is not a forgiving wing. It will load quickly and stall when provoked.

[@andrewinfosec]

Great analysis

[@morgandollar7146]

Excellent analysis!

[@ostapbendervan7874]

worth the wait.never disappoint

[@TheIrongutz]

Low and slow is dangerous in a Learjet and being this close to vref while dipping his wing (turning) gave this crew no safety margin imo.

[@biggieb8900]

Did you watch the video? It may not have been a stall.

[@TheIrongutz]

@@biggieb8900 Did you watch the video? It has a high probability of a stall.

[@biggieb8900]

@@TheIrongutz well in the video you're commenting on he talks about how there were no stall horns or warnings of any kind transmitted to ATC, and his last reported speed was above stall speed in the configuration he likely was in at the time he crashed...so unless he pulled over his critical AoA or didn't have his flaps down it may have been controlled flight into terrain...I'm clueless why people are upvoting you...

[@biggieb8900]

@Marc Benet None taken of course...so a 35 deg bank at 130 kts while in a slight climb would stall you? And ATC wouldnt hear any stall horn or stick shaker?

[@sdaniels7114]

@@biggieb8900 ATC wouldn't hear anything if they weren't transmitting or had switched to the advisory frequency.

[@Darkvirgo88xx]

Isn't this the flight where you hear the pilot yelling oh expletive then screaming as they crash ? That was hard to listen to hearing his last seconds alive. It honestly sounded like the workload was on the pic.

[@gusm5128]

Yes

[@gusmc01]

Great explanation @ 6:00. I wondered why they made their circling turn so tight. Since they were VFR, the need to keep the airfield in sight did not give them enough room to execute the approach.

[@jonathantack]

Excellent overview and the gem to get out of this is the “ pilots backed themselves into a corner” by cancelling IFR and therefore could not commence a missed approach . A favorite quote from Hawkeye: “You always want to prioritize a quick exit over a quick entrance, so when things go sideways, as they usually do, you have an exit strategy.”

[@sintillate1913]

Exactly. Once they cancelled IFR, they committed themselves to a missed approach procedure consisting of scud running 500 feet below the scattered and overcast layers in mountainous terrain at 160 knots while praying they could get a quick pop-up IFR clearance to re-enter the clouds, or declaring an emergency to do a risky climb through IMC and hoping they don't conflict with airliner traffic to/from KSAN.

[@toldt]

"A crew on their planned final flight of the day... face a dilemma. Land on a runway that doesn't give them the landing distance... or circle to land at a longer runway at night..." Or, uh, maybe divert to another airport. Not to be captain obvious, but they hadn't declared a fuel emergency, so diversion should not have been ruled out of consideration.

[@sunshineFireIT]

This is an excellent analysis

[@darrens.4322]

Great rundown by the presenter! I have been studying aviation crashes and promoting aviation safety for decades. I happened to have learned how to fly @ Gillespie (KSEE). I went by crash site yesterday to pay my respects to the 4 victims. One thing I do like about this channel and the presenter above, is less speculation and more analysis early-on in an investigation that will take at least one (1) year plus. Some of the other channels, a few of them popular, I get a bit offended myself and for family of victims, at the level of speculation and conjecture so early into the official investigation. Having said that, to offer as my preface, the onset of my speculation is an accelerated stall, perhaps out-of-configuration. I too was perplexed why no audible alarms/horns in background when the mic was keyed as they experienced an evident LOC. The LR-35 has both a stick shaker and pusher, but I am not sure how that will help in low altitude or with an accelerated stall (G-loaded).

[@toma5153]

Agreed Darren. Some of the other channels sure play it fast and loose, especially since detailed facts aren't always available. Some flight data and ATC recordings aren't enough to complete a full investigation, but that doesn't seem to impede some folks from diving in and letting us know how brilliant they are.

[@jeffreymcneal1507]

The blending of lights with the horizon; especially if you want/need it to be a certain parameter. But no stall alarm? Damned strange.

[@josh3771]

Thank You for this video

[@aviatortrevor]

I'd have to believe the low altitude to start was the result of just inattention by both pilots, rather than an attempt to scud run below a cloud layer. I mean, you're not even VFR if you're not 500ft below the clouds, and if you're choosing to fly a jet at 500ft AGL intentionally to stay below clouds, you're just insane and have incredibly bad judgement. I have to believe the more likely explanation isn't purposeful flying low, but accidentally getting low

[@hb1338]

The aircraft was nearly 500 feet below the pattern altitude - it's hard to see past reckless or negligent.

[@DownTheRabbit-Hole]

2:23 I think you discussed the weather Metar KSEE 280355Z VRB05KT 3SM BR SCT011 BKN020 11/09 A2996 and a closer to the accident time of 7.14 PST Metar is KSEE 280255Z VRB05KT 3SM BR BKN020 OVC026 10/08 A2998. The Local controller gave winds at 190 at 5.

[@jryan1024]

Very similar to the Challenger crash at Truckee last summer. Circling approach leading to a VMC stall.

[@technowelliebobs4779]

I'm not a pilot (bar a handful of hours on small light aircraft) but I can see how videos like these will save countless lives. Great work

[@charlesfaure1189]

Unfortunately the kind of pilots who do things like this are unlikely to learn anything at all from accident reports. A cavalier "it can't happen to me" attitude is a character flaw, not a lack of information. For every new accident analysis, there a a hundred old ones just like it. Still, pilots like this repeat the same old awful decisions.

[@technowelliebobs4779]

@@charlesfaure1189 Great point! Thanks for your input

[@royboy84]

Are you guys planning on tackling the recent Trevor Jacob crash? I know it's pending FAA investigation, but I'd love your take