Ep.125: Is The UK Housing Market About To Crash?

In our latest podcast episode the team touches on three major topics:
1 - UK house prices have fallen at the fastest rate since 2009. How bad will it get and why Denmark might have the solution to Britain's broken housing market
2 - UBS posted the biggest-ever quarterly profit in banking history this week, so how exactly did they pull it off?
3 - Is the US labour market starting to show some cracks and why this is actually good news for the stock market!
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#uk #housing #finance

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[@speedbagwizard9880]

What makes me laugh is this has long been in the making, this is not a accident, "we won't own anything" remember,

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

You forgot to mention that we will be happy lol

[@user-hp6ls8qy6d]

Which means they will own everything.

[@healthiswealth6797]

They don't cash they slide and takes years . Very overpriced for what you get

[@tobymaltby6036]

Hmmm... maybe, maybe not. Remember 2009 ??

[@alfreddunn03]

Another 2 quarter raises and then they will stay the same for months before having to drop them due to terrible economic pressure globally and the UK.

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

And then you will see hyperinflation i agree that they will cut rates rate hikes were never going to kill inflation it is design to kill small businesses and crush customers which is what is happening oil prices are going above 130 dollars a barrel we are entering a commodities bull market

[@paul_e123]

The Danish system sounds like a nightmare when it comes to determining if a property is a fair price or not. You can’t simply compare the price to similar houses, you have to take into account the mortgage terms. How the hell do they price properties over there? The U.K. system seems the most straightforward and the fairest to me because after a few years everyone is more or less in the same boat. The US sounds so unfair… imagine being locked into a 30 year 7% mortgage while your neighbour is on a 30 year 2% mortgage for an identical house. You’d be paying VASTLY more for exactly the same house.

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

People need to be looking closely at Japan i see global financial crisis starting from their

[@paulmatthews9366]

How weird.... house prices directly correlated with availability and expense of credit. Who knew ? So if you print billions and slam IR to 500 year lows and keep them there for 15 years you create a gigantic housing bomb.

[@johnrandle8365]

The trouble with the buyers and sellers they took for granted that very low interest rates would be the norm when you buy to live in times past where buyers could make a profit now times have changed because the tories were fast and loose with money debt rose for them that is why Bailey and Sunak got together along with Austerity to claw back the Easy way INTEREST RATES .

[@andyjax9215]

Big US homebuilders are offering discounts and mortgage rate buy downs that existing homeowners can't compete with, so builders are selling more but their overall profit is trending down.

[@victablet3480]

Youd really help us understand with some graphics when talking about things like Denmark

[@kubhlaikhan2015]

At what point does the rise in rates transform into an epidemic of defaults and subsequent bank failures? The fear of banks rolling over is why the government will eventually cap rates.

[@lugo_9969]

A slow crash over 3 years .... very likely

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

We are going to see a credit freeze we are going to witness the worst economic crisis that we have never seen since 1929 crash will be nothing compared to what we are going to go through

[@connormcleod9595]

Should be about 30% correction by 2025-26

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

I believe that the housing market is going to fall 50/70 percent stock markets will fall 80 percent we are going to see a credit freeze by2025 governments will then roll out cbdcs

[@Tony_Teacake]

I would agree that 30% would be the average. Regionally between 15-50% depending on where you live.

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

@@Tony_Teacake i can see stock markets also drop 80 percent aswell credit markets will likely freeze in the next financial crisis

[@ThatsnotwhereIparkedmycar]

I have a similar outlook. The housing market doesn't 'crash', it declines month on month for serval years. We have seen 12 months of declining growth and about 9 months of decreasing prices. Still, a good 2 more years to go. Particularly if you consider that mortgage rates will be higher for longer. The best thing to do, if it's possible for your situation is to relocate to a booming market, like Asia, and work for a western company, remotely!

[@nicky_nike]

@@ThatsnotwhereIparkedmycar Yep, another 2 to 3 years of price attrition leading to 35% to 50% drops. Might even be higher. I see Chinese property dropped 9% in ONE MONTH.

[@remiewatkins8032]

A awesome job Thanks

[@888ssss]

the house goes down but the debt remains, and increases. fools netted.....

[@nicky_nike]

And the price lost is lost value forever yet still paid for. Prices only 'recover' numerically with inflation. It's madness to buy now.

[@888ssss]

yes. it never was a real housing market. it was a fiat currency / debt trap. probably the most successful ive ever seen. these deluded greedy fools are 100% owned.@@nicky_nike

[@livetrading888]

great show. 👍

[@danbee415]

i think rates will keep going up

[@shazoids]

The Tories poured petrol on the property market during covid, they where warned time and time again but ploughed ahead with idiotic help to buy schemes regardless, all the risk is on the tax payer. They are in the pockets of the property developer property donors. The sector was responsible for 20% of all donations taken by Boris Johnson’s party between January 2010 and March 2020, with several big spenders handing out millions. It includes £12m from companies and individuals linked to JCB, the construction company chaired by the Tory peer, Anthony Bamford.

[@yenni_avandika]

❤

[@nintendokings]

Crash? No crash. A correction only investors are crying about because their property portfolio isn’t printing free money like in 2020-2021😢 Genuine people looking to buy are hardly excited about a ~5% drop when interest rates have tripled and cost of living is hugely up 🤷‍♂️

[@danbee415]

i hopw the rates keep kicking up for a few mkre years, if so, house prices will drop to 2015 levels probably

[@karlmcglue9946]

Off shore trusting not going to help either

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

Ulk economy is dead you might won't to have a look at the debt market 2 and 10 year yield inversion has never been this inverted before banks have seen their bond portfolio crater bank of England will pivot and cut rates and quantitative easing will start again and this will cause a hyperinflationary depression

[@victablet3480]

I'd agree. They dug a hole and with massive debt their only option is to pop the bubble and massively cut spending, or QE & hyper inflation ( stealth tax)

[@BTFD0618]

i heard in Australia they are all on variable

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

Australia has the same system as we do tjey can fix for 2 and 5 year's

[@victablet3480]

And prices are dropping I believe

[@DarrenSmith-zz6fk]

@@victablet3480 their is a debt market meltdown followed by a hyperinflationary depression

[@aarifchinaac]

B

[@BTFD0618]

will defo take time to bake in.. plus people still nuts are being in lockdown Jail

[@arandmorgan]

Population decline will eventually start reducing house prices, and will continue until living and having children becomes affordable again. Although if it's reducing sperm counts and not financial pressure, it will just continue dropping anyway, permanently. Also as the population decreases, tax revenues diminish and national debt will keep people impoverished and unable to afford housing, regardless of supply.

[@nicky_nike]

don't forget the excess death numbers that are increasing.

[@kubhlaikhan2015]

The native population has been falling in numbers for decades. Population growth is fuelled entirely by immigration.

[@user-hp6ls8qy6d]

@@kubhlaikhan2015 Unfortunately.

[@19aries81]

@kubhlaikhan2015 so many people have bought into the idea of living for themselves and chosen not to even attempt starting a family, my work is full of these people

[@kubhlaikhan2015]

@@19aries81 Debt and wage slavery is the root of the problem. Selfishness is just the consequence.

[@user-mm5lh5lx1h]

Elephant in the room. Government climate change obligations ... any financing conversation without ESG is just two people talking flannel acting like they are a pair of sages lol

[@bulltraderpt]

Oh god, can you really be serious about prices crashing? Here's why houses WON'T crash. Firstly, more houses are owed outright than are mortgaged. Secondly, limited land, thirdly painfully slow planning regs regarding building on green belt, fourthly open door MASS migration in to the UK. Need I go on?

[@19aries81]

But if people can't afford mortgages and people can't afford to buy a house because intrest rates are too high then something must give, and that will have to be the price of houses for sale, those who want to sell won't be able to if they don't reduce the asking price, you can already see prices falling and I can already see my mortgage rising

[@bulltraderpt]

Erm BTLERS? People who have cash ready to go, already? People who won't sell because they don't need to. You have quoted a classic economic argument, however, in this instance my reasons have put a floor under the market since the early 2000. Sorry. @@19aries81