Buying in USTs is split by the time of the day: foreigners buy heavily then Americans sell. Why?

[@phazon6179]

Keep those daily uploads, they are fantastic and hugely relevant!

[@jamieb7799]

As an Aussie I think comparing Australian interest rate hikes to US is not a fair comparison. In Australia we predominantly have variable interest rates which impact all existing housing loans almost immediately when they go up as opposed to (my understanding) of the US which has 30 year fixed rates and affect new lending . Having said that in Oz we have a large amount of fixed rate loans (from 2019/20) going back to market rates in December which will be an increase close to 3% and will really affect affordability and potentially the housing market so the RBA is worried about that. Housing in Australia is huge and our economy is closely linked to it probably more than most Western economies. As a result the RBA (who by the way in 2021 said rates wouldn't increase until 2024 hahaha) are now treading the tightrope of not crashing the housing market and therefore our economy whilst hoping/predicting that inflation here will peak next month. New loan approvals are falling off a cliff and lending ratios have tightened significantly. One thing is for sure the RBA and Australian Government will do everything possible not to crash the market because we're highly levered. The RBA is one of the better central banks and they talk a good game but I take what they say with a great deal of skepticism. Thanks as always Jeff 👍

[@shaunoconnell9506]

Exactly this. Summed it up well

[@joythought]

Your points are great but that is why it is a fair comparison. I'm an Aussie as well and I am buying US treasuries (SHY and especially TLT) when US treasury yields are at extreme like about a week ago because I want to hedge against the AUD. The fact that the RBA is only raising by 25 points whereas the Fed is blindly raising by 75 probably tonight and may even do something similar next month means the AUD may fall down into goblin town with any spike in the VIX. It's a fair comparison because this is a global system.

[@stpOwner]

@@joythought what broker do you use for your purchases?

[@jamieb7799]

​ @B Joy Great reply 👍and I totally understand where you're coming from. I definitely appreciate educated people challenging my thoughts. What I would say is: 1. The US$ is going to continue sucking the oxygen out of the global room because of the need for $ for commodities. Benefit is that's what we export the majority of. So imo that will actually help to some extent (but only to a point). Oz mining company profits across the board are substantially outstripping non-mining companies so there is room for the $AUD to drop without being catastrophic. 2. The "cause & effect" of being cautious on interest rate rises by the RBA is imo different from the need of the FED to drastically take action because their rate rises don't have as big or immediate affect on their consumers but it does in Oz because of the variable interest rates for home loans ( I do understand that's simplisticly put but I don't want to write a theosis haha) 3. I really believe it is the nuances of the way the Oz system and the US system vary and the differing immediacy & impacts from rate rises between the two is one of the reasons the comparison is not the best. 4. I think the Aussie yield curve looks a lot more healthy than that of the US. Crikey their US03M is inverted to the US10Y. 5. I think we may feel some pain from the rising USD if it goes too far but I think our problems & solutions are "same same but different" from theirs. But yes I completely agree with the fact we are a global society (although their trying really hard for that to change : )

[@requited2568]

Huh, North of the Americans and here we can get either a fixed or variable, fixed is usually a fraction of % higher of rate at the time. Used to be able to get 30 year here and initially I had a 40 year. Since last move ~8 years ago can only get a 5 year even on ~150k.

[@BlueWaterSTAX]

Thanks Jeff. We appreciate Eurodollar university. Faith in the Dollar is completely gone. Precious metals sales are through the roof.

[@jessicamamikina7648]

There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.

[@dorissteve912]

Best time to invest? thats funny though because in the last four months I have lost more than $47,900 in stock market which is the biggest I have loss since I ventured into stock investment.

[@jessicamamikina7648]

you could be right or wrong . i once had similar problem but now its a different ball game for me because I was lucky to have met Karina Mattis , a financial manager and stock expert, I have made more than $165,000 in 6 weeks under her supervisions

[@jamesmaduabuchi6100]

Really? people are cashing in from the stock market and frankly speaking its comforting seeing someone admit to the fact that they actually seek help from professionals. please how can i reach Karina ?

[@jessicamamikina7648]

Search her name on the internet to reach her

[@jamesmaduabuchi6100]

Thanks for the info . Found her website and it really impressive

[@jmarie1959]

First! Thank you Jeff! Have a great night everybody!

[@darroncrick9993]

With regards to us in Australia Jeff you are extrapolating the wrong drivers. There are only 3 drivers of RBA decisions; iron ore prices, nat gas prices and domestic house prices. Iron ore prices are in freefall due to China contraction. Australia rides on the back of the iron ore train. Gas is booming which is putting great pressure on business and households. Home prices are retreating at an alarming rate. The RBA is trying to limit the price decline of housing above all else. It needs to keep tightening to slow inflation but above all else it doesn't want to bust the housing market. The RBA is super sensitive to housing after they came out earlier and said interest rates wouldn't rise until 2026 lulling a lot of buyers into a false sense of security. The RBA is only transparent now because they were so inaccurate before and Phillip Lowe (Bubble O Phil, Aussie ice cream reference) the Governor of the RBA hung onto his job by his finger nails.

[@michaelmcgarrity6987]

I'm high Density. TY Mr Jeff for continuing to Educate. I'm starting to get Eurodollars.

[@marcatalyst]

Australia also has like the second highest house hold debt in the world.

[@ground752]

Thanks Jeff ,

[@bonitabeach3127]

Thanks Jeff

[@nenigma1]

Thank You... Keep this Format!!!! soon to Be as Quick as Maverick of W. Again Thank You Sir!

[@timbassett9766]

Thanks Jeff ,,, you give the Australian RBA, far too much credit . The Sept CPI rose 1.8% , the raised .25 %

[@deanswartz5812]

Great Charts !!!

[@joshuaerwin6520]

Thanks so much for your great effort!

[@stephenmosner5517]

A long explanation for a possible complex theory of recent bond market action. Or, maybe a simpler one: More bond owners in the US “get it” that there is soon going to be not enough buyers of Treasuries, so they’re selling, while foreign private parties (who probably don’t quite “get it”) are more afraid of their local currencies, so they are willing to buy Treasuries. Until, they notice holy crap, the US is going to be selling $100T of these in the next 20 years, so WTF was I buying them for? Then they are selling as well, and whoops, bond market goes no-bid. Next up, Yield Curve Control. And have fun with your bonds.

[@maxoobbxxx8032]

@@seven7thirteen LOL at Jeff's "safe and pristine" collateral, that just lost half of its value in 2022.

[@maxoobbxxx8032]

I also love how Jeff never engages in any discussion that challenge his theories - neither on Twitter nor on YT. He just rambles on and on, nonsensically, about some imaginary "dollar shortage", and "safe and liquid" treasuries.

[@sergiootero5904]

He probably doesn't care if the masses believe him or not. Besides, he probably doesnt have the time to post on twitter himself because he's always researching. He did 2 pods on "What Bitcoin Did" where he was challenged, check em out.

[@joythought]

You must be American and fully ignorant of what's happening elsewhere. So you are bearish on treasuries whereas I am an Aussie and buying US currency and treasuries in various forms. Jeff has nailed the monetary system as well as anyone.

[@teresasean3117]

My biggest financial mistake was being only 12 years old during the 2008 financial crisis and nowhere near prepared enough to scoop up some cheap stocks and real estate maybe now is my time!

[@francamoses6901]

You're so correct! Save, invest and spend for necessities and a few luxuries relatives to on's total assets ratio.

[@melissaanthony3627]

This must be an investment with Mrs Meltem Demiro

[@paulalexis5133]

I'm just shocked you mentioned Expert Meltem Demiro thought am the only one trading with her

[@patricklerato1775]

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[@brysonwilliams7758]

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[@paulivankovich7349]

The Australian RBA isn't being honest it simply wants to minimise the impact on property price falls. The RBA has never been honest.

[@peterdisabella2156]

In regards of the supply shock, my father works in manufacturing and he has been regularly getting time off due to them not being able to get the parts, materials, and processes they need to fill what is still pretty hefty demand.

[@watermill4854]

Essential listening. Period.

[@canaldrip2523]

Awesome job

[@oneeleven9832]

Australia is all about housing prices & keeping them going higher..literally nothing else matters there…

[@rcmrcm3370]

Australian Government honest? Where are the 4 horsemen?

[@david38oh]

Wish you and Chris martenson(peak prosperity channel) could get together for a podcast👍

[@archidube]

Prices at the grocery store are not down, gasoline is up, house and rent are still high. Somehow Jeff is out of touch with reality of ordinary people.

[@erb34]

Found it odd here in Australia, you were referring to foreigners given you have a global audience. Often people talk about the seasons and forget there are northern and southern hemispheres... it's all about consciousness 🙂

[@davidlecker7460]

People buy for a reason and sell for a reason. Is it for safety or profit or avoiding a loss? The reason is very important.

[@Nilsis1986]

Who should bare the cost of risk of reserve currency? The holders or the issuers?

[@Peter-wt1lk]

The Australian Reserve Bank is like a sneaky child who takes one jellybean out of the jar at a time rather than a handful hoping no one will notice but over time he will eventually get his handfull.

[@shaunoconnell9506]

Whats that even mean

[@paulivankovich7349]

I don't think he understands we are only about saving the property market. Nothing to do with supply and demand.

[@shaunoconnell9506]

@@paulivankovich7349 ahhh yes that’s exactly true. Americans never actually understand how embedded property is in Australia. Literally it’s every job, tv show, financial product, discussion at the family table pub. Even the main shops Bunnings ect. Everything is geared at property. If property failed everything fails so they’ll let the aud go to 20c with interest differentials before they let property market go

[@peterharestidsen6556]

Jeff, my main man ...

[@Dodooccurs]

Why does Portland shield 🛡 keep bleeding money

[@DoubtfireClubWGPowers]

Eurodollar basic thesis: 1. The FED does not know what the hell it's doing. 2. The FED doesn't care. 3. Maybe they do know what the hell they're doing but.. they only care about themselves and their friends. 4. The big question is.. where are the torches and pitchforks?

[@mhickey21Florida]

Hold interest rate increase production of Oil and Food (Weekly Quiz)

[@stpOwner]

The RBA is hardly a bastion of competence, they have been asleep at the wheel during the blowing of the biggest housing bubble in history.

[@ground752]

The Powell rates are pro animal, bird, insect reptile fish ect.

[@DeebzFromThe90s]

Jeff, I have a feeling that CBDCs will be proposed as a solution for the current failing system. Would you be able to discuss how CBDCs will play a role if this were to happen? Keep in mind, CBDCs can be programmed any way central banks want, and thus can exercise (with governments) a finer control over their currency. Examples of this is programming transaction restrictions (for instance, the money can only be circulated internally and not into the eurodollar market) or programming CBDCs to expire after a duration to combat inflation and promote spending (I believe China has done this). Thanks!

[@peternyc]

WHY IS THERE A GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE? JEFF, PLEASE ANSWER WHY!

[@maxoobbxxx8032]

There isn't, he's just pulling it out of his heiny. Just a typical rate arbitrage, because USD pays more currently.

[@krzysztofzegan5661]

How wrong! Any rate hike will burst real-estate bubble in OZ, second largest industry after mining.

[@deehendon4204]

Inflation must be eliminated at any cost. It’s an unfair tax perpetrated by monetary policy on all people, even at the expense of Walk Street and any other investment people selling inflation as a good thing.

[@NotShowingOff]

I don’t know if causing unemployment is the way. It feels like the USA and Europe and many other countries have redistribution problem and not an inflation problem

[@Benji_The_Ghoul]

Foreigners are mostly selling bonds now though.

[@NotShowingOff]

Foreign central banks are selling treasuries to pay debts. However private foreign entities that are looking for store of value are buying us treasuries. Think about how much private equity entities representing foreign investors bought the I-bond. Now, foreign governments are losing investors in their own economy.

[@rcmrcm3370]

Australia is a commodity exporter, why were they suffering a USD shortage?

[@JohnAnderson-wc2fw]

😂Cause their broke, just like everyone else. A lot of their debt is in dollars but they are trying not to print fake money. It’s all fucked

[@danb1618]

Correlated to a global dollar shortage. But as Jeff stated the AUD has outperformed its peers

[@Fr1nc3sc41]

Could they be importing more than they export?

[@antpoo]

Does anyone watch the ads or just mute them like I do? What a waste of societal resources.

[@yountune9799]

Is the Fed releasing the CBDC or is it G7 CBDC?

[@rpietryk4690]

True iE in jangle😹🤘🎶🎷😁

[@tomatitos9022]

I wish you could work something out with Rebel Capitalist. I feel that sometimes he makes sense but his conclusions seem to miss the mark by a fair amount. Maybe do a review of popular "KZbin Economists"?

[@joshuarasmussen641]

I hope Emil creates a novel series one day just because

[@Jimd5353]

Global Synchronized Slowdown

[@togoni]

Stop bashing FED

[@drkitti2244]

Mr Jeff...Please invest in a new pair of sight glasses, your current favourites 👓 are showing signs of economic collapse! 🎃 👻