Experts slugfest: Our final 2024 Oscar nominations predictions

Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng share their final (?) Oscar nominations predictions. Will PGA and Best Picture go 10/10 for the first time? Can Frances Fisher pull off another last-minute campaign? Plus: Those wild BAFTA nominations!
Email your questions to [e-mail].
Timestamps:
Intro and shorts (0:00)
International, documentary and animated features (11:33)
Below-the-line categories (17:54)
Screenplay categories (37:25)
Best Supporting Actor (43:42)
Best Supporting Actress (47:58)
Best Actor (1:02:00)
Best Actress (1:10:23)
Best Director (1:17:48)
Best Picture (1:25:51)
Listener questions (1:27:43)
BAFTA nominations (1:41:26)
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Gold Derby features celebrity videos plus expert predictions, tracking who will win Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, Tonys, Golden Globes and top reality TV shows 'The Amazing Race,' 'American Idol,' 'Dancing with the Stars,' 'Survivor,' 'The Voice' and more.

[@DavidN369]

Have finally figured out why I love this Gold Derby series. Although Chris and I often are directly opposite in personal taste, for every "Henry Sugar" is the worst of the Wes/Roald shorts -- EHHH! NO. -- there is a "Taste of Things" not getting in as poetic justice wry insight, and frankly, would love to have a beer with him and just kvetch about the races. His enthusiam is infectious. And Joyce, whose tastes more often do align with mine -- Mighty Ducks Forever! Lydia Tár brought it on herself! -- is able to step back from the cacophony and actually see the Big Picture, which is its own achievement. Just give her the keys to Hollywood already. And THEN, there's the interplay between both, which is nonpareil. Open Memo To Mr. O'Neil: They deserve a raise. Seriously. As ever, youse twose are the berries. More, please, thank you. ❤❤

[@chrisjrosen]

Thanks so much! Always up for a beer!

[@chrisjrosen]

A comment that reads suspiciously like something David L. might write - just super offensive and dismissive and rude and ignorant. Thanks for the thoughtful response!

[@aprilnewell5434]

After the baftas, I am sure the predictions will change.

[@eccentricexploringape1246]

Jeffery Wight definitely has more of chance to get snubbed than Cooper. Wright’s performance isn’t very flashy and Cooper is getting in everywhere, even though I like Wright’s performance more

[@chrisjrosen]

I am worried about this now.

[@danielkenealy7503]

Don't worry@@chrisjrosen - this isn't where the surprise might come.

[@mattyrse]

You guys are so different and so funny together. I will campaign for you to host the Oscars.

[@DavidN369]

I'll second that.

[@danielkenealy7503]

I doubt it will happen but, if "Fallen Leaves" makes it in for original screenplay, would it be the first major Oscar nomination that wasn't an option to select on GoldDerby? I loved this episode Joyce and Chris. Thank you again. I'll be re-listening to this a few times over the next 48 hours as I torture myself over final predictions. The more you were talking the more I thought "Killers" was potentially going to be this year's "Mank" (as opposed to "Maestro") - could "Killers" miss in a few key places (screenplay, editing, score?).

[@camgrant1318]

As Chris said Chadwick Boseman was in the wrong category. He was an alright supporting performance in a non-oscar best picture nominee with the post humorous narrative, against an emotional lead and beloved Antony Hopkins. Lily was great in Flower Moon but when was the last time such an understated and short performance nabbed the lead actress oscar for a first time nominee? (McDormand for Nomadland was an exception but her third win so makes more sense.) Hope Greta Lee and Fantasia make it in with Sandra, Emma and Lily.

[@benhaynes4409]

Was Frances not the lead in Nomadland?

[@danielkenealy7503]

I am not sure in what world Chadwick Boseman wasn't a lead in Ma Rainey. It was more of an ensemble film than The Father, absolutely. So, if your argument is that lead performances in ensemble films are at a disadvantage for awards then I probably agree (absent extraneous factors like narrative and emotion, etc.). But to call Boseman (and Viola Davis) non-leads in Ma Rainey can only mean you think the film didn't have any lead actors, which seems, well, wrong ...

[@danielkenealy7503]

@@benhaynes4409 Yeah I don't get this comment. McDormand was in 75 per cent of the movie and was, essentially, the only character.

[@camgrant1318]

@@danielkenealy7503 I didn't say Frances wasn't a lead, I just posed the question of when did a leading actress win the Oscar for such an understated role as a first time nominee as Lily is trying to do this year if you take Frances out as she had won before.

[@camgrant1318]

@@danielkenealy7503 Just saying the comp between Chadwick/Antony and Lily/Emma this year could occur again. Some have said Lily's performance is supporting as some said about Chadwick but ultimately they just vote for who they like best regardless of time on screen. Hope Lily can win though I don't think it was the best performance in the category imo.

[@shadaviongrant7605]

Here is my list for Best Supporting Actress 1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers 2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer 3. Penélope Cruz - Ferrari 4. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple 5. Erika Alexander - American Fiction

[@chrisjrosen]

Erika Alexander deserves it!

[@oscarramirez2866]

Andrew Scott's snub is insane. As much as I love Barry Koeghan and was happy when he won the BAFTA for The Banshees of Inisherin, his performance in Saltburn (And I loved Saltburn) doesn't come close to what Scott brought to the table in All of Us Strangers. Coleman and Teo also gave good solid performances but they pale in comparison to the mastery that Scott brought to his role. Scott truly commanded every scene and it's silly to think that the film received 6 nominations and he was shut out. I'm keeping my fingers crossed and hope the Oscars nominate him. This could happen considering that Kristen Stewart was snubbed for SAG and BAFTA but still earned an Oscar nomination for Spencer. Similarly, Lady Gaga received SAG and BAFTA nominations for House of Gucci but was not recognized by the Oscars. Luckily for Scott, Dicaprio has been striking out at other awards shows despite the success of Killers of the Flower Moon. Plus, it must be said that Lily Gladstone's performance is what audiences have been raving about when it comes to the film. Furthermore, All of us Strangers has more momentum than Rustin and was more embraced by audiences and critics. On the other hand, Rustin was more polarizing. I could be wrong but I do think that Andrew Scott can still earn an Oscar nomination for All of Us Strangers.

[@DavidN369]

Word. From your mouth....

[@PrivatePrivate-so4if]

BAFTA aims to be inclusive by having sub committees drawn from diverse ethnic groups in the final shortlisting process. It is absurd that Scott was not nominated for his towering performance and I just wonder who the people on the sub-committee were that did not acknowledge him. BAFTA members were once made to undergo unconscious bias training before voting. If the Academy still insists on this, it should be compulsory for all, irregardless of colour, faith or creed, and deal equally with gender, and sexuality as well as race and ethnicity. The evil of homophobia is more apparent in some social groups than others, byt it should not prevent artistic excellence being justly rewarded. Just a thought....

[@Waffle-tv7rg]

As amazing as Lily Gladstone was in KOTFM- she was the most compelling character- the Oscar belongs to Emma Stone. I didn’t want to believe it until I saw Poor Things. Similar to Olivia Colman in The Favourite- it was such a brave and career best work (up to that point).

[@EliCross]

Maybe the Lead Actress top 3 was actually Stone, Robbie and Mulligan and Hüller was 4th? Anatomy did well at BAFTA, but Maestro did too. So the jury picks would be Barrino, Oparah and Hüller.

[@EliCross]

@@davidslugfestsexpert27 Yeah, it just makes no sense. If the purpose of the jury is to save the diversity picks, why wouldn't they save Gladstone?

[@timgriffin3368]

​@EliCross the purpose is not for 'diversity picks' but rather to choose those that did not get the overwhelming majority. UK is Not all about 'diversity' as USA is.

[@damdaniel5106]

@@davidslugfestsexpert27it’s not like Barrino gave a poor/weak/mediocre performance. I would put her on a similar level if not higher than Lee. So because it was a jury pick most likely, all it would take is a couple people like me to prefer barrino. That’s why it’s not that significant to the Oscars.

[@FelacityB]

i like Joyce predictions. also, i am going for bradley cooper winning oscars as my unpopular opinion. ig.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Cooper was amazing in Maestro

[@nafischowdhury7375]

he can't win it without winning zero precursors.

[@purekinema]

I watched 16 of the 45 shorts but I don't have a good sense of what they would nominate. The Last Repair Shop seems like the biggest lock, but it's long (40 minutes) and they usually don't nominate such long shorts. It was my favorite along with Invincible, but Invincible is not the Academy's usual style. Letter To A Pig is powerful and has unique animation so I think it's in. I could see them doing Boom too as their fun pick. Knight of Fortune is very much their type, it should not have 100/1 odds. I don't think Oasis or Anne Frank Gift Shop get in.

[@alokmishra4429]

War is Over and Pete are locks in the Animated Short category

[@purekinema]

@@alokmishra4429 Did you watch them? I watched Pete and don't think the Academy would go for it. It's very by the numbers and not subtle.

[@oldschoolabrahamhicks2742]

Yay!

[@oldschoolabrahamhicks2742]

Gosh the smartest best analysis esp on the BAFTA breakdown

[@wentaoma211]

BAFTA is actually doing a great job with the nominations. Killers of the Flower Moons has always been caught in between the outsider view of the tragedy of Osage people and the BOI being the major power player, which made the delivery of its message very confusing. As much as I love, love, love Gladstone as an actress, Molly as her part was terribly written in terms of how much autonomy she had especially towards the end of the film. Gladstone tried her best, but the writing was just not there to make her performance a leading role to deserve the trophy. If Scorsese and Eli Roth were smart enough to watch Reservation Dogs, they would know how to write Gladstone’s part.

[@nielsenmakaba5777]

I agree 1000%

[@Bryan4Hillary]

I disagree 1000%

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

🤔

[@purekinema]

After the BAFTAs, it looks like Payne and Robbie are getting in for sure

[@timgriffin3368]

BAFTA doesn't predict Oscar's

[@whatsup4825]

Am I the only one unsettled by the BAFTA nominations? Some picks make sense, but other picks seem mindless. It's making my brain itchy. Make the nightmare stop! I'm starting to overthink my Gold Derby Oscar predictions. 🤕

[@DavidN369]

No. No, you're not the only one. SMH.

[@ssshar2176]

You are not… but I also think BAFTA purposely tries to buck the trend and clearly prefers homegrown talent.

[@itsybitsy999]

It's easy. Just ignore the juried categories. Popular vote is all that matters. Killers made it into most of its popular vote categories apart from Adapted Screenplay so it's fine for the Oscars.

[@65g4]

I meant to say you shouldnt be worried

[@timgriffin3368]

The original TCP is great, and at my age of 13 transformed me into a movie snob. It lost everything but mannnny nominations. Broadway reworking of the novel and the subsequent movie which is Not a remake, is quite MEH. I stand behind that and my waaay past statement though not AS bad comparing it to Cats. Theres not a reason to redo everything, umm, Gus Van Sant's Psycho.

[@bradlascelle7131]

Premature to react to a perceived poor Society of the Snow performance. It was only longlisted for Best Film Not in the English Language. Your thoughts about it's perceived strength prior to noms should be no different now. So reversing course on Makeup & Visual Effects makes zero sense if that's what prompted your decision.

[@histubeness]

All the talk from both of them about how the Baftas might change their mind. They should have just waited an hour to hear what they were. What was the rush to get this posted before then?

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

This was recorded on Wednesday (the day before). But, yes, they should've waited just a bit more.

[@histubeness]

@@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719 I'm pretty sure he said a few times that the Baftas were going to be announced in about an hour.

[@LAMusing]

If 3 of the Best Picture noms are directed by women and all 3 get shut out I'm done. And to even discuss Gerwig AND Margot missing on Barbie, so the only nom is for a man (Gosling), I think it proves the message in the film. Dune had zero possible acting noms, Barbie has 3 possible acting noms - the films are not the same. Besides Gerwig, eiother of the other 2 women directors would also fulfill the international director slot more than Glazer. If it's a sausage fest for Director I will be furious.

[@memorieswithouthomes1438]

How odd that you haven't heard great things about Fallen Leaves when pretty much all press has been positive. That said, it's the audience scores that haven't been all that good. But when voters decide, they don't really look at audience scores, I'd imagine?

[@johntheX]

Loved the movie. A small one, a small story and very delicate. But really enjoyed it. 81 minutes I think.

[@jja8750]

My NGNG is Past Lives missing BP. It feels very 9-10th, for me with that real possibility of 11th. I know there is definite passion for it, likely more than Maestro. But Maestro has also been showing up everywhere. And Past Lives really only has PGA (which is huge), but it missed with SAG, weak at BAFTA, missed Score on the long list. And I have a hard time believing it just gets BP and Screenplay. It's happened before (2 noms), but it's my gamble this year.

[@SleepFan771]

Best Picture: PGA 10 exactly. Oppenheimer wins. I don't think All of Us Strangers can get in without tremendous support from BAFTAS Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Justine Triet, Jonathan Glazer, & Alexander Payne Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, & Colman Domingo Best Actress: Sandra Hüller, Emma Stone, Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, & Lily Gladstone Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe, Sterling K. Brown, & Robert De Niro Best Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Claire Foy, Penelope Cruz, & Sandra Hüller

[@fgaspar1]

I don’t understand why so many people are putting Glazer and not Triet for best director at Oscar. “Anatomy of a fall” is overperforming “The zone of interest” everywhere (not considering tech categories), and Triet won European Film Awards over Glazer. I would very much like both to be nominated, but it’s not very likely (it’s difficult to drop Payne or Lanthimos), and Triet is ahead.

[@timgriffin3368]

Drop Payne

[@angelasanto1082]

Remember last year guys... Jamie Lee

[@JKAlcala]

These are a bunch of incoherent nominations, they snubbed Yorgos for director and Ruffallo for Sup Actor but Poor Things gets into best picture; they snubbed Scorsese for director and Leo (expected) and Lily (biggest snubbed) for actor and actress, snubbed for screenplay and incoherently Killers gets into best picture; they nominated Maestro for Actress for Mulligan, and Screenplay, Director and Actor for Bradley and snubbed it for Film; same thing for Zone of interest nominated for Director, Screenplay and Sup Actress and snubbed form Film; Saltburn got three acting noms Kehogan, Pike and Elordi (big surprise) and Brit film but no Screenplay or Director for Fennel; Teo (a total jury pick) gets for Past Lives but the real standout lead Greta Lee is snubbed; we knew they would be snobs about Barbie but they nominated Screenplay, Sup actor and Lead actress but no Director or Film; and All of strangers getting for Supporting actor and actress, Screenplay and Director and snubbing Andrew Scott for Actor and Film, so incoherent; and really Fantasia?, such unnecessary jury pick more so over Lily. I think there are four big winners tonight: Oppenheimer who just repeated and confirmed its favorite status as it got everywhere it needed to, The Holdovers who got as well every possible nomination Film, Director, Screenplay and three acting nominations (adding Sessa to the mix), Anatomy of a Fall almost as good but with one single acting nomination unlike Oppie and Holdovers (and for the Baftas, Anatomy seemingly is the only female directed film (Triet) worthy of best film or direction), and so these are your top three films and Paul Giamatti showed muscle in Britain to take down Cillian Murphy; Killers and Poor things got hit hard with snubs in directing and acting (and even screenplay snub for Killers), no good for them; and the fourth winner is Bradley Cooper, seriously bullied on twitter but loved by Baftas, yes no best film for Maestro but Bradley got Actor, Screenplay and Director, the later over Scorsese, Yorgos, Greta, Song who everyone thought were above him. Special mention to Sandra Hüeller and her two acting nods in two really liked films (even though Zone of interest didn’t get in best film ironically in its hometown awards)

[@camgrant1318]

So true. What I got from this is Oppenheimer is very strong in many categories at Oscar’s. Holdovers also strong and could get two acting wins and screenplay and a director nod

[@JKAlcala]

Hahaha this is the rant/manifesto if anyone was wondering, @chrisjrosen we need to get a couple of those log pillows, we need to trick Joyce or David Lynch to get us one

[@beatrice2236]

It's always funny to me how people never questioned whether people were being judged on their merit/work rather than a "quota," etc before, but now that they are more diverse people are questioning if people are deserving or a token. Do we really think that in all these years minorities did not have roles that were worthy of nominations but were denied? All of these awards are just the opinions of a group of people that get to vote and there is so much back door deal making and lobbying that no one should take them seriously. There are a lot of people who have an Oscar, but don't have a career.

[@alokmishra4429]

Has Joyce actually watched all the shorts, specifically the animated shorts or is she picking because of "The Names"?

[@timgriffin3368]

After seeing all but 2 of the 'main' films and seeing many secondary pictures, my off the wall pick is Origin getting in for screenplay, actress and film. Let's Go!!!

[@Rashmibhattachan]

Justine triet chris nolan alex payne martin Scorsese Brad cooper

[@nafischowdhury7375]

lily missed bafta nom and lost cca to emma yet she's the ''frontrunner''... I don't get it. someone help me understand it.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Perhaps people are wrestling with the idea that she might be supporting

[@nafischowdhury7375]

@@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719 that's my only issue with her whole campaign. it's a great performance but it's a borderline supporting role.

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

CCA is not industry awards and BAFTA is overseas. SAG is the true industry indicator and yet to be awarded. SAG also seems to go for narrative which Lily has over Emma, so Lily is still frontrunner.

[@Fallen616]

I think it’s because Lily is expected to win SAG (as he said) and a myriad of other reasons. Lily has a great narrative campaign as well as the notion that Stone already has an Oscar(objectively the Academy voters count that when voting). Plus the CCA & BAFTA aren’t necessarily needed to win the Oscar, remember last year none of the 4 acting winners won at the Academy. Best BAFTA can do is build your momentum but most everyone knows they prioritize British talent. If Emma wins at SAG, then the Oscar is hers.

[@nafischowdhury7375]

@@myytchanneldinakoha8498 if Lily was truly the frontrunner, she would have gotten in at bafta. that's my point. even Michelle Yeoh got in last year.

[@vajona2495]

Imagine how bad movies are for either to be nominated let alone win...

[@aaronvillagomez3548]

i think u guys underestimate margot a lot. SHE made BARBIE BARBIE. i think she has passion and support more than you see. She’s also very likable and let’s be honest she’s gorgeous and I think a lot of the voters are charmed by her. She got in for bombshell she can get in for this. And she’s landed all four precursors even at Bafta and barbie wasn’t nominated for Best Pic.

[@chrisjrosen]

I’ve been on Margot for a long time and my momentary lapse excepted, I do think she will get nominated!

[@Rashmibhattachan]

SANDRA HUELLER!!!!!

[@davidstone9624]

Barbie isn't high concept?!

[@itsybitsy999]

Bruh.

[@Ryusevi]

Joyce needs to be less negative about the viewers come on we're watching, we're listening we like hearing from you.

[@robertsaner8766]

i love joyce's cerebral style

[@timgriffin3368]

The Joyce haters; Boo. Chris and or Joyce would sort of be annoying by themselves. Two Chris' Boo and annoying; 2 Joyce's Boo and too cerebral: Both together=Sheer Brilliance and Perfection!!!

[@Ryusevi]

@@timgriffin3368 i dont hate her at all i love her humor but there‘s no need to talk down the podcast and the listeners

[@danielkenealy7503]

Trust your instincts Chris - you're right about Leo. The performance is (in my opinion) great. The problem is the character is entirely unsympathetic. He goes from befuddled idiot, to taken advantage of moron, to quivering lip "child being told off by Mollie" by the end of the film. It's brilliant to perform that and not alienate the audience. But nobody's voting for that. No chance. It's Murphy, Giamatti, Wright, probably Cooper and then either Domingo or Scott (maybe both, with Cooper a Tom Hanks in "Captain Phillips" jaw-dropper).

[@danielkenealy7503]

Replying to myself is not cool but, f*** it I'm doing it. Bradley can get snubbed. Totally. And the one we're all sleeping on - big international star, been in a series of critically acclaimed cinephile films ("Transit", "Great Freedom") ... is Franz Rogowski. Probably not. But if there's a jaw-dropper on Tuesday it's Franz with the international actors pushing him to their number 1 spots to announce his arrival!

[@garryd7748]

I wouldn’t say KOTFM is a ‘very American’ movie - the themes resonate universally. It’s the movie itself that’s a bit of a failure. How can such a powerful story be told in such a way that audiences are yawning by the end of it. I think a lot of experts are starstruck by it being a Scorsese movie that they automatically assume it must do well at the Oscars. I think it’ll be nominated everywhere at the Oscars, but could very easily come home empty handed.

[@camgrant1318]

Needed more editing. Lots of scenes we got the gist and could have moved on

[@adrianhaynes5315]

Thankyou for speaking out against how absurd and gross BAFTA is with their jury selection, there’s many examples but just to chose one Vivian Oparah, she was fine in Rye Lane, but the only reason she’s been nominated is because of her ethnicity. Is she going to be asked on the Red Carpet what’s her view on being a token diversity representation nomination, I doubt it, but we all know it, it’s repugnant.

[@Rashmibhattachan]

Milo the kid actor might get nominated for supporting actor

[@jaguarkaboom8967]

does joyce like her job? she is always indifferent to what's going on with the most minimal reaction and engagement possible

[@whatsup4825]

Joyce is a Queen. 🙌🏻

[@DavidN369]

​@@whatsup4825Yes. Yes, she is.👑

[@timgriffin3368]

​@@whatsup4825completely agreed. Love Her. ❤️

[@purekinema]

this commenter is a self entitled a**hole, if you don't like the video move on 🙄

[@MrLuis85698]

this video was unbearable

[@JKAlcala]

The biggest loser today wasn’t Killers of the flower moon (Baftas really hated it with all those directing, screenplay and acting snubs) but the biggest losers are the “Juries”, what a terrible work they did, for them Anatomy is the only film directed by a female who is worthy of a nomination for best direction or film, when you had plenty of options with Barbie, Past Lives, gosh even Saltburn; and obviously no poc directed a good film. If the job of the juries is to make sure there’s inclusion by picking up female and poc for the nods, they’re doing a terrible job, just unnecessarily messing up with the nominations with no discernible benefit

[@timgriffin3368]

#baftasowhite BUT if the jury members love another film more than a woman's and or a POC or what not, then this jury member should Still pick the latter's just to fill quotas? Art is subjective and not meant for filling quotas. I would rather see Gladstone lose just for her story and Stone win for deserved, amazing art. I detest JLC winning for she's been in the biz forever, Moore for she's been nominated so many times, Berry winning for first African American winning, give it to the Asian, give it to the deaf girl, blah blah 🤢 🤕 🤮

[@vivianfernandes4436]

Dicaprio dont deserve nomination.. He literally plays himself in every films.. In KOTFM he made a face of Grupmy cat to show that hes great in acting.. Shit with his role.. His acting ruined the whole movie for me