Singularity or Decline?

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

Fascinating comment. I guess I would argue that both sides can involve optimism. Decline is a natural process that perhaps we ought not to fear . . .

[@rbairos1]

@ExplainingTheFuture Just throwing it out there.Overall great production work and engaging content!

[@GadgetGuru-r4w]

I"m so thrilled I found your video series. I have come to many of the same conclusions independently.

[@sailaab]

hope now you are around and have a dekko at the Quantum Computing Update video Chris sor recently posted on the Explaining Computers channel of his

[@MrUniversality]

@Drew, one of the main factors in the singularity IS AI. It will do the very thing you brought up at the end of your comment. Now the Brain push has begun just like the Gene mapping did. Interfacing and augmentation already takes another huge leap with Gglasses. The military is actively building emotionless robots; the very thing we fear. At same time AI with the ability to understand humans are finally popping up. As Ray also says, our only chance at preventing it is building a smarter one.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

You are right -- no mainstream political parties are into this stuff. Which is a great pity, and quite alarming. As you say, we could sorts things out if we all got on with it together . . .

[@TheJamesrocket]

invariably lost as useless heat. I think it accounts for something in the multi-gigawatt range, at least. It plays a fairly important role in the GW equation, I'm surprised you haven't heard about it. But I'm grateful that we're able to have such a civil and informative discussion. Other people are MUCH more closed minded when representing their ideologys.

[@ajarnfrankie]

- Nice job Christopher! I have always been a believer of Technology for useful purposes. The main we need to focus on for now is getting rid of the people who hold us back from progress. The Banks, Politicians and greedy(money before earth/people) business types. Then we must convert to a resource based economy. Finite resources today are wasted like no tomorrow and this is not good.

[@stardude692001]

I was born in 1988 and the pirate party as you describe them describes a lot of the things I and my generation believe in. I think if everyone had access to all of what we have achieved to this point we would be in a much better world.

[@Kynareth6]

It's the fourth year I'm checking exponential progress in solar energy acquisition and suprisingly it's still true. It's at least 60% more watts from global acquisition per year. That means more than twice after 2 years. It's all wonderfull but it can't be guaranteed, progress won't dramaticly slow down(for example because of rising costs of bigger and bigger power plants).

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@rbairos1 That was/is not my intent! :-) But your observation is a very interesting one on which I will ponder.

[@MrUniversality]

3d printing is another perfect example on the good side. 100% waste reduction; the ability to not deplete our resources through not only the latter but 100% recycling... The ability to self replicate..cheap materials not expensive materials. The recycle factor alone can add to this. When people are done creating everything they ever wanted then what? The desire to posses, or take would die...As would the concept of greed and possibly our flawed virtual money system? Sry for spam...

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

Indeed, the Singularity could involve many negatives as well as positives.

[@callummelluish471]

How much will the potential singularity technologies cost?

[@Alexrocks1253]

Callum Melluish 2¢

[@Haarkbot]

Are there any major political movements dedicated to bringing about this post-singularity extropian society? I can't seem to find any. Why is there no 'Extropist Party' or 'Singularitarian Party'? The problems of unsustainable resource consumption wouldn't be problems for much longer if the world's countries collaborated together to solve them.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

Yes, lots of capital. But there are still lots of companies, governments -- and even some wealthy individuals -- with capital that could be invested in projects to help the survival of humanity (rather than, say, in making war) . . .

[@IngeniousEpithet]

From everything I've read... there is ZERO debate amongst the respected scientific (and especially climatology) community over whether AGW is real (or poses dangers to humanity and ecosystems)... however, the debate amongst climatologists is over whether the consequences of AGW are going to be BAD or TERRIBLE.

[@IngeniousEpithet]

Upon searching for heat pollution (also thermal pollution) it appears I was mistaken... I HAVE heard of it and certainly it is a factor in global warming... I don't know how considerable a factor it is, however. From what I know, greenhouse gases (and the resultant positive feedback effects) contribute to the majority of AGW.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@tonybeir Thanks Tony.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@thesnazzydazzyshow Sci-Snazzy indeed! :-)

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@IQ20000Berta Me too . . . There is something changing around the globe now . . .

[@TheJamesrocket]

runs on a roughly 1000 year circuit, and has a mean global temperature difference of only several degrees. The longer cycles have much larger ups and downs (hence the ice ages, where ice has at times been 2 or 3 kilometers thick in north america). With that said, the earth may be experiencing a significantly larger dip than would be expected. Whether its enough to cause mass extinctions and the like is anyones guess. I hope this clears some things up for you.

[@94Newbie]

i think a decline due to fossile ressource shortage is quite unlikely, there are many nations that put great effort into expanding and researching alternative energies, some nations would likely suffer a economic crash but in the end all that would just force modernisation and technology would progress even faster. nations can recover quite fast from complete economic crashes as we saw for example in germany after the hyperinflation and after ww2 ( ok they had help).

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@Dalsir1 This is indeed sadly true . . .

[@IngeniousEpithet]

As for AGW being CO2 related... well that's the absolute CORE of the problem. I'm not sure what you mean by "heat pollution"... except perhaps the direct heat radiation humans give off, but that's nowhere NEAR effective enough to explain our current warming. We are currently coming (slowly) out of the last glacial period... however the rate of warming we're seeing is MUCH MUCH FASTER than any kind of background/natural warming. Solar output/cosmic radiation are also ruled out.

[@IngeniousEpithet]

@gucker07 In conclusion, I don't think I'm being too pessimistic, I'm being sober and concerned. I think you're being way too optimistic about a limited/unsure techno-solution that probably won't pan out like people think it will.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@fishat01 Many thanks.

[@ExplainingTheFuture]

@melis256 Greed is I think a bottomless pit for some. But even so, it may be possible to convince the most greedy that the only way to continue to satisfy their future greed is to cease to satisfy it in the short term in order to prepare a more sustainable foundation for tomorrow. Perhaps . . . ! :-)

[@TheJamesrocket]

a worldwide 2 child policy. A solid state economy will help enforce all these protectionist measures. 'I'm even MORE convinced than EVER that global warming is real, man-made, & a serious problem.' Well, as I said previously, GW is at least partially influenced by our activitys (partly by heat polution, partly by CO2), but I don't imagine this will result in some day after tommorow scenario any time this century, even at the rate we're going. But what is your impression of how bad things may

[@Inaflap]

Phwooar! Look at that greasy stuffing box being pumped at 3:27.

[@stardude692001]

the biggest problem is farming. I have never seen an electric tractor and most of our fertilizer is oil based, without oil at least a billion people will starve to death and I see no way around that even on the drawing board.

[@TheJamesrocket]

get, IngeniousEpithet? When will global warming reach its peak intensity, and specifically, what kind of consequences can we expect? 'I'm not sure what you mean by heat pollution.' I'm referencing the waste heat that is released from our machines when they perform work for us. Remember the 2nd law of thermodynamics: Heat cannot be transferred from a cold body to a warm one, only vice versa. That basically means that energy cannot be converted into work with 100% efficiency, since some is

[@IngeniousEpithet]

The planet does naturally cleanse itself of CO2 though... but we're putting out more than it can scrub, and this accumulates over decades and decades. Currently, the planet's carbon sinks can scrub about 60% of human emissions (amongst other natural sources of CO2)... but that leaves an ominous 40% lingering/accumulating and reflecting longwave radiation (heat/infrared) back towards earth at a positive (rather than balanced/neutral) rate, thus increasing atmospheric temps.

[@IngeniousEpithet]

I agree with you... except when it comes to global warming. I'm going to ask you to seriously trust me here... one of, if not THE, biggest issue I've debated/educated myself on is global warming. I've researched every AGW-denier argument, I've given them serious consideration/potential, and ALL have proven to be bunk & easily (more or less) debunked. Through my research (of the ACTUAL science/studies), I'm even MORE convinced than EVER that global warming is real, man-made, & a serious problem.

[@MrUniversality]

Also as Barnet has mentioned; the removal of regions, space, gaps between society's n ppl is ever shrinking. This new lvl of Social interaction coming will dwarf the Social media that exploded in past yrs. Your talking synthetic telepathy, instant translations, all very close not far away. Its only going to pick up speed; which is why Govs appear to b getting more oppressive/controlling. The flow can no longer be managed. Im saying these r examples of counterparts; ppl getting closer not further

[@IngeniousEpithet]

@mdlittle5466 Now that's not to say that some sustainable fraction of the population still can't use advanced/futuristic technology or live in a post-industrial techno-society... But certainly MOST people cannot live like that sustainably. Perhaps Japan could be converted to a tech-mecha for futurists and visitors and the rest of the planet embrace sustainable, lower-tech, localized, permaculture-oriented, less-consumptive ways of living. At the end of the day we MUST reduce overall consumption

[@mdlittle5466]

@IngeniousEpithet Opinions be what opinions may...what one thinks regarding thusly is irrelevant - what matters is when we start putting this into practice. How one may regard said occurence is of no consequence pertaining to sustainability...for pursuing the opposite endeavor is, most certainly, terminal...

[@Aizacc84]

The Singularity sounds like the Venus Project to me.

[@Aizacc84]

Investments mean resources.

[@IngeniousEpithet]

Despite any of the other climatic cycles... our current warming, once again, far exceeds the natural ebb/flow and may likely serve to greatly/rapidly alter climates, ecosystems, agriculture, and so on, in a domino effect. The biosphere is already in a precarious condition and global warming will probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back. We're already seeing climate instability, rapid ice melt, erratic/polarized/extreme weather, acidification of oceans, etc. due to AGW.

[@DatingInfoForSingles]

The UN prediction of a fossil fuel crisis flies in the face of the predictions of futurists such as Kurzweil and Diamandis that solar energy will Supply 100% of our energy needs before the middle of the next decade.

[@gucker07]

@IngeniousEpithet the earth can sustain billions more. also, we live in a universe which is (for all practical purposes) infinite. the ressources in our solar system alone would be enough to sustain a civilization vastly more advanced than ours for millions of years (in human terms that means forever). we just need to learn to access these resources. will be a cakewalk with superhuman ai.

[@leerman22]

Why do all these animations look like they were made in the 1990's?

[@waswestkan]

+leerman22 I imagine the animations appears as they because they are produced in one man shop using older tools, not in a studio full of professional artists, wit access to expensive newer tools

[@thotung34]

It's got a unique feel to it

[@angel2901]

Report from the Club of Rome has been wrong all the time. Singularity, hands down!

[@thesnazzydazzyshow]

Sci-Snazzy!

[@mdlittle5466]

We already understand that we've bypassed the current existing ability to consume, in our wake of this madness...we've produced far more then we can hope to utilize - producing waste previously inconcieved. This madness - capitalism, needs to end lest we strive to show our children how much we 'love' them...by destroying any hope of their having a future at all. That is what is currently happening...that is what we are currently doing: for the sake of our species - change your ways!

[@metanostalgia]

There IS a third option, we enhance our technology to help us while we stay biological, therefore we will improve through the help of technology, democratic socialism, and renewable and nuclear sources of energy, not turning into robots.

[@stardude692001]

elemental resources like lead copper and rare earth elements are neither created nor destroyed, soon wee will be mine landfills for what we once threw away, but most of our resources are still here waiting to be reclaimed. as for power, even if we run out of fossil fuels tomorrow we still get more than 25% of our energy from non fossil fuel sources, we would just have to cut back until be can build more solar wind and nuclear facilities.

[@IngeniousEpithet]

@mdlittle5466 No... Mr. Borg, What matters is reality, facts, science. And if the science says that transhumanism and fantastical techno-solutions are not going to save us, then sorry to rain on your parade, but it's time to drop the support for it. That's not to say you can no longer be INTERESTED in technology/transhumanism. I am, myself. But our problems are not a LACK of advanced technology... that's more gas on the fire, technology has proven to be double-edged. Time to be sober.

[@rbairos1]

Is it just me, or are these videos expressing a more and more statist slant?

[@Dalsir1]

Anybody watched 11th hour ? Soon it will be to late

[@wupeide]

Malthus all over again.

[@gucker07]

@IngeniousEpithet We can sustain billions more for like a century (minimum). By then we will have superhuman AI or will figure out things ourselves. You're way too pessimistic.

[@VTOLAircraftMad]

carbon nanotubes ftw!