Fibonacci fail - how to very definitely lose at roulette.

TLDR; No mathematical system can beat roulette in the long run - this video shows how bad your losses will be if you follow this strategy! This video is in response to one that appeared in my feed describing how using the Fibonacci sequence as a betting strategy in roulette could produce enormous profits. It's sadly not true, if it were that easy the casinos would have wised up a very, very long time ago. Following this 'system' will only lead to one thing - an empty bank account.
The original video was also produced by someone with affiliate links to casinos so, no conflict of interest there at all 🤔
I wrote a quick Python script to show what a catastrophically bad idea this system is. This is a long and fairly boring video, but shows what would really happen if you tried this system with real money. And - if it stops one person from losing money then it's worth it.
Jump to 6:45 to see the results with 1,000,000 spins - it's not pretty!

[@davidpride3160]

This video is getting several comments along the lines of 'this isn't realistic - no one plays that many spins' and also 'just stop when you make a profit' or 'stop when you make a loss and come back another day'. I'm not going to be nasty about it, but these type of comments show a misunderstanding of probability (google 'gambler's fallacy' if you haven't). The wheel has no memory, the odds never change. If you play 200 games today, or 50 games over 4 days, or 2 games a day for 100 days, the probability of winning / losing is exactly the same. This video was made to show what will happen if you play for long enough. Also the strategy of 'just stop when you're ahead' presumes that you *will* be ahead at some point. There is zero guarantee of this, it's just plain luck. And, the odds are very much stacked against you.

[@otaldojuca]

Perfect. That's exactly it.

[@stellarcreations7378]

Great video! Low Roller here. I've gone down the roulette rabbit hole testing different strategies using a beta app then applying at brick and mortar and online casinos that accept crypto. I could never pinpoint it but I knew there was a wave of win and then sudden wave of losses. Crypto casinos offer European roulette and have now introduced "wild numbers" when betting single numbers. My local brick and mortar offers wild numbers too. (Double zero though) European roulette with the wild numbers is the only roulette I'll play online. Some of the the online roulette games offer $0.20 bets. ie: Extreme Lighting roulette I've been trying to teach myself to cash out when I'm 20-40% up. Roulette is a quick get in get out type of game as far as I can tell now... I'm better to play for 15 minutes versus trying to play for an hour. @5:10 you noted "profit". Is there a way to do an analysis on the probability of winning within a thousand spins and pin pointing that section of profit as noted?

[@roulette-professional]

Excellent Video David! If only there were more videos to educate the roulette community like this one. If you don't mind, we would like to include your video thumbnail in our next video, its explaining conflicting information on the internet and advising viewers to think carefully about what they believe. It will highlight your video as a positive for the viewer and the other one as a click-bait casino affiliate, not in the viewers interest. We seem to have a similar stance, view and approach to yourself.

[@hamidbohluli3692]

You are so kind and knowledgeable I understand exactly what you said and agree with you Unfortunately i've been addicted to online roulette for 13 years. My life is completely destroyed...😢 No one can beat online roulette It is riggid. If you can beat the roulette the website will go offline in the middle of your session and kick you out of game ... Unfortunately i can't give up gambling May be i should move some where with no internet ...😢

[@davidpride3160]

Knowing is the first step. Reaching out is the second. You’ve made both those moves. 👌 Try something like gamban.com which can block access to gambling sites and apps across all devices. 👍

[@IngmarSteen]

No matter what system you play, the house edge will not change. For example if you play the dozens, the calculation for European Roulette is as follows: The probability of hitting a dozen is (12/37) and you win 2 units The probability of losing is (25/37) and you lose 1 unit The expected value for the player is calculated as follows: ((12/37) * 2) + ((25/37) * -1) = 0,6486 - 0,6756 = -0,027 This means in percentages that you will lose 2,7% of the 1 unit you wagered. The so called Return To Player percentage is therefore 97,3% and you will lose your money on the long run. Playing odd/even, single number, column or whatever will give you exactly the same 2,7% like David showed in the video.

[@hamidbohluli3692]

Thank alot It was very very informative .🙏

[@cyber1saved741]

Thanks for your review. I would ask you to run your simulation on the sequence after 6 lost spins before starting the Fib. I play on the third colume that has not won for a min of six spins. Maybe I'm lucky but find the win after the 5-8 level. I believe the math and your sim may help me decide how to adjust or eliminate this strategy. Thanks very much

[@davidpride3160]

You have been lucky so far, but the key to this is ‘in the long run’ - and, in the long run, you will always hit a losing streak that will bankrupt you. Please don’t look for staking systems to try and beat roulette, they just cannot work. I ran the sim again to answer your question: kzbin.info/www/bejne/d2nUZ2mDpt94Z9k Hope that helps. 👍

[@Valientangel]

The python script u wrote to test...can it test other ststems? Will u sell it?

[@davidpride3160]

The script could be adjusted to any ‘staking plan’ - but genuinely, the long term results would be the same. If you play flat stakes, the longer you play, the closer to the house edge you’ll get. The massive problem with any staking system, particularly ones that increase the stake size when you lose, is that you’ll always hit a run of losses that will wipe out your bank balance.

[@miyu545]

The fibonacci betting strategy is quite arbitrary in respect to the numbers, you could simply go from 1 to 4 to 10 to 22 to 44 to 66 to 102 and the results would be the same. The numbers themselves plays no role in the game's win or loss rate. That's what people forget. The odds never change regardless of your bet.

[@arthursengkang]

your voice volume is too soft (low).

[@prodexconsulting2894]

How about sessions of 50 spins or go for a TP % let's say 15-20-25% That is far more realistic gameplay instead of 100 or 1000s spins nobody is doing that in a real B&M casino.

[@davidpride3160]

See the pinned comment above. 🙏

[@glitchs7604]

Correct me if I'm wrong but roulette is beatable if there is no table limit, you already have an infinite amount of money, and you double your bet every time you lose. The idea being any win after a loss gets you back to even while you pocket any money generated by consecutive wins. Since tables have limits and none of us have infinite money there are not roulette games that are beatable.

[@glitchs7604]

Technically you don't need infinite money but since the longest recorded run on a "50/50" i could find was 26 in a row you would need at least $335,544,320 to play on a $5 to mitigate ruin risk. Or I could be wrong I've had half a bottle of rum :)

[@davidpride3160]

Yup - completely correct. Infinite money. But also no table limit. This is the ‘Martingale’ strategy which sounds perfect, theoretically. But in practice and in real life is utterly disastrous

[@anthonytran4942]

You just need to be very patient with fibonacci betting on dozens or columns, basically you get 10 bullets b4 you hit the table limit with this system. You just have to wait until a dozen or column don’t hit for 5 or 6 times which happens very often. 99.9% you’ll hit those dozens or columns in the next 10 spins. Bloody very unlucky if you don’t. Good luck

[@sksum2350]

You can add so many elasticity to your approach for 12 numbers covered. Anyone who played Roulette for some time should be aware of the possibility of getting a bad streak long enough to wipe the entire BR. I negative progress at every 5 consecutive losses, not after every loss. Still not a guaranteed winner, but safer.

[@davidpride3160]

I had someone ask a very similar question, only starting to change the bet after 6 losses. I ran the sim again - see video in my channel. It makes no difference in the long run, you'll still eventually hit enough losses in a row to wipe out your bank.

[@oxdevil]

Well, SMOKING is BAD for the LUNG, and yet Billions continue to SMOKE religiously ... so much for human's wisdom... If you run a simulation of 86 sessions x 60 spins each session with a total wager of $100K and a NET WIN of $5800, do you consider this a statistical variance OR an impossibility ?

[@davidpride3160]

Completely possible. In the video you'll see that, on average, if you play for a 1000 spins, it's quite possible to show a profit. If you extend that to 10,000 spins, it becomes increasingly unlikely and you are much more likely than not to lose everything. The example you gave was 5160 spins so logically this would fall in the middle, so yes it's entirely possible. But the longer you play, the closer the overall outcome will get to the statistically most likely outcome... and with a built in advantage to the casino of 2.70% in European roulette... that means you will always go broke eventually.

[@oxdevil]

tks. If I manage to stay ahead of the house edge by the 10K spin milestone, I will write a book a la Edward Thorp on BlackJack .. and hope to sell 10K copies first print..hahaha@@davidpride3160

[@trentstravels]

Don't stay in as long. By your own admission, you made a profit, even if only slight, on 100 spins. Is anyone really going to hang in there for 10000 spins? If you have enough money to last 15 spins, it's extremely rare you would lose, provided you "quit while you're ahead". Quite often, people are their own worst enemy, due to being greedy. They win, but keep going. I have played a system similar to Fibonacci, with enough money to last 15 spins. Over 50 games, I only went over 10 spins 5 times. Twice was to 12 spins, once 11, once to 13, once to 14, which was scary, but NEVER to 15. That's not to say it can't happen, but if you are betting on 12 numbers, it's rare you would get pushed past 15 games, & you should have enough wins behind you that even if you do lose once evey 50 games, you are still ahead. I only play for 30 mins, occasionally for 45 mins, at a time.

[@jrfjosh]

If there was not a maximum bet size, Fibonacci system would print money. Casinos know that, that is why there are maximum bets.

[@davidpride3160]

…if there was no table maximum, and you had an infinitely large bank roll, then yup. 😊

[@_lunarC_]

Ive tested it notnwith real money and yea the fibonachi is terrible long run you can get lucky dont get me wrong and it is obviously possible to win big of it like anything else but oure more likely to lose money with it

[@KC_47.]

Greed "eat" us.. We totally wish/depend on luck (but luck not 24/7 on our side 😂) Set a goal..Why not making 25 dollar per session.. Even 25 dollar per day? 10 days = 250USD.. A month; 30 days = 750USD.. Better gain 1USD than loss all, isn't? 😁✌️

[@davidpride3160]

See the pinned comment for reply to this exact question. How do you guarantee you will be ahead? You can't. And, in the long run, you'll have more losing sessions than winning sessions and you will lose overall. It's baked into the game.

[@KC_47.]

​@@davidpride3160 Let's think like this; imagine roulette = forex trading; has a stop loss and profit to stop.. We can't play infinite spins with a wise thinking.. So we set a target profit and loss.. Once reach either target, stop for the session/ day 😂.. I got 1 strategy combine (with the progression too) I'm trying it for 3 days already and the result is very good.. Wanna know bro?

[@SixlineForever]

Only my strategy works.

[@davidpride3160]

All strategies work... until they don't! I am genuinely impressed by the amount of effort you've put into your videos -I watched quite a few of them today. I'd love to know what software you're using to automate the tests - very cool. 😎 I like that you state in your description that roulette can''t be beaten with math - totally correct, I wish more people understood this. I also love the way you've logged everything and made it public - real dedication to it! Looking at your channel, as of today, (27.04.2024) the 'sixtine strategy' is currently down a total of $88248 - very glad it's only play dollars! 😊

[@Patso65]

Well, it "looks" obvious to me, play less than 100 spins, take your small profit and walk away. Problem solved.

[@davidpride3160]

See the pinned comment for the answer to this exact question. There is no guarantee of a small profit, or any profit, to walk away with.

[@sesanti]

Until you play 99 spins and lose your entire bankroll that all your "small profits" cannot compensate for. Then you are at loss.

[@vilbosshyster-yalevilicarj2760]

The simulation has, in my opinion, a minor drawback. You consider 10,000 spins in a piece. And this is not the same as 10 sessions of 1000 spins (eg 10 different tables in one day or 10 days of 1000 spins per day). And here comes the profit. The player must not be gready. End each session after e.g. 5 profit chips and change the table or come back in an hour. And so the probability of earning is higher.

[@davidpride3160]

See the pinned comment above, answers this exact question. 👍

[@sesanti]

Please kindly explain how the probability of winning is higher just because you changed the table or came back in, let's say, 1 hour?

[@davidpride3160]

@@sesanti Harsh - but true! ☺So many people seem to struggle with this concept.

[@sesanti]

@@davidpride3160 What a lot of gamblers fail to understand is that if a game was beatable, the Casinos would not be playing that game. If the Roulette was statistically/mathematically beatable, then obviously there would be no Roulette tables at any Casino. It's a very hard pill to swallow but it's the reality of it.

[@ManoharReddy26]

100% you will lose money in the long run!

[@davidpride3160]

Absolutely guaranteed. But it is clear from comments on many 'TRY THIS ULTIMATE Fibonacci Roulette System!!' (etc) videos that many folks just don't seem to see this. 😔

[@Stan_52]

Roulette is not for the long run it’s hit and run I make my $50 target easily and stop, any system will make me $50 in a few minutes it’s all got to do with one’s mentality I don’t want to win thousands not greedy.

[@avantgardedoboj4810]

bla bla

[@davidpride3160]

Couldn’t have put it better myself. You’re clearly a literary genius. Bravo.