FIFA World Cup 2018 - Accumulator Tip England Germany Belgium and Mexico

[@princeedukere]

I was looking forward to using passt statistics ??To predict correct score

[@quantchannel9922]

How? In a league, perhaps could use poisson model thought it's pretty noisy. Maybe for low scoring games with a team that tends to win 1-0 but haven't really tried it. The poisson model did get it right occasionally but I haven't done a proper study yet? Arsenal did go through a period where would win 2-0 at home quite often but otherwise hard to tell since depends on the teams involved and changes season to season so don't have that much data to work with? Don't know the impact of VAR as well. I like it in that get better decisions and so the better teams should win more and the noise should he lower which is better is trying to model though lots of set play goals. Have goals followed Poisson for the world cup? I'll have a look at the end of the contest since we'll know the distribution of results by then and the average number of goals scored?

[@quantchannel9922]

Do you reckon the accumulator is going to win? Belgium did at least though that and the England game were the most dead certs. Mexico is the highest odds so might come down to that and the odds pretty good then for essentially one result? Time will tell though since surprises are surprises.

[@princeedukere]

using certain methods these are likely the correct scores: south korea 0 Mexico - 2 germany 3 sweeden 1 england 2 panama 0

[@princeedukere]

the poison model works if you cn get past statsisics of last 6-8 games whether friendly matches the HS, HC and AS, AC parametres can be easily gotten You can uses the average last 2 games of the two teams in concedes and scores to get the ALS and ALC

[@quantchannel9922]

I broadly agree. Am backing mexico to win to nil and would say 2-0 most likely. Would think 3 or more goals in germany game but haven't analysed. England match tomorrow so was not on my radar, only added that when making the video since think panama weak and england should win. Would look to use that kind of match in an accumulator or with a handicap? So all 3 scores look good, though can imagine Germany winning 5-1, england winning 4-0 etc The odds for correct score are pretty good though so the scores you gave would have good chance of making money if had say many games to bet on since they only need be right 1 in 5 to be profitable?

[@sonOfLiberty100]

Hello Quant :) I also thought, that argentina would be better. Now my favourits are: 1) Portugal 2) Spain 3) Croatia and 4) Mexico

[@quantchannel9922]

quebono100 no Brazil?

[@sonOfLiberty100]

Yes no Brazil, i dont know, but i think the other teams are much better