FMCG Stocks Scream Red Alert I WeekendInvesting DailyByte 24 Oct 2024

[@majidhussain7174]

Middle class is shrinking, Government's direct tax is zooming, Hence consumption is going down. Coming budget in feb 25 is going to be the deciding factor for economy.

[@fvs1]

It will repeat the setbacks. Dont have expectations.

[@majidhussain7174]

@@fvs1 Indeed!

[@Saurabh67787]

I thinks high interest rates , High Taxes is major reason

[@AlokJain]

Yes. Imp

[@jacobjose1516]

Govt is growing.. consumer is shrinking

[@adamcek987]

There is a huge lag between when rate cuts are implemented and the effects are actually felt. Not only that, but rate cuts themselves always happen based on lagging indicators, such as unemployment (unemployment data always lags hiring data since businesses stop hiring before they start firing). This is why rate cuts have almost never successfully prevented a recession. We saw it in '08. The yield curve uninverted, the fed cut rates, the markets surged for a bit based on false hope and reality set in soon after as the bad unemployment data caught up to the bad hiring data and it was armageddon from there. Anyone feeling the impact of these economic shifts should consider Crypto long-term trading strategies to protect their assets. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation, just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 720k from day trading with Aria cookings in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish..

[@adamcek987]

Aria Cookings program is widely available online.

[@dandow23]

Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Aria's insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.

[@Popcxrnpoppop]

Aria Cookings strategy has normalized winning trades for me and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.

[@Josealjornaavila]

Her technical analysis is excellent and her interpretation/projections of the market is so accurate I sometimes ask myself if she is human haha. Point is, Aria is the perfect trader to follow for advise and daily signals.

[@22lsmall]

Bitcoin is the way of the future, and investing in it will be the smartest decision you can do, especially with its present Price.

[@sreeshanTiruvallur]

Your last sentence is the best advice, logical way and best way is to follow the technicals. Rest is all noise

[@mahihegde4613]

I went through most of the comments. All are losing their mind already. Its just a few percent down. Market cannot go up always. It gives an average of 12 to 15% on long run. Even companies cannot show very good growth always. There will be slowdown. Accept and move on

[@JoiAhom]

No dear our internal economy collapsing because of e-commerce

[@OmPom-h9o]

​@@JoiAhomLoL

[@abhishekjoshi1087]

Cochin shipyard js 40% down which is still jn MI20 and piramal phrama is moving up but not in MI20 which type of moment investing is this ? Or smthng wrong with me only ?

[@manojsuri007]

Direct tax code next year will be the last nail in the coffin for middle class. It's going to be very very bad.

[@sridharsm366]

Companies are not increasing salaries widely (selective hiring at higher wages ignoring loyal and long term steady ones) while inflation is eating a lot into purse.. especially IT and ITES and other service sector employers..(I don't know about manufacturing).

[@JoiAhom]

E-commerce is the real criminal

[@satyam_108]

I don't visit malls..go to local shops..the courtesy of the shop owners is shocking..even the cheap barber shop they give a royal treatment ...i rub my eyes in disbelief..i am not someone extra special..then i realized the buisness of these establishments have gone down..every penny every customer counts..the middle class is screwed funding the education of their children..i rub my eyes in disbelief when a marwari gentleman comes to deliver food..things are really bad

[@sunilwagh7098]

Alok Sir's best humour at 5:00, ITC also in Sympathy of FMCG Gang 🙂, Enjoyed this epic comment !

[@coldstone87]

Made a huge mistake of buying MF and now locked for 1 year due to exit loads. Alok sir please introduce your small cases for lesser rates atleast for first 1 year like some % expense ratio so that we can step in. Right now exit loads and STCG costs are way to high if we have to sell MF and exit.

[@samson8150]

One hypothetical question: FII keeps selling and DII keeps buying as retail investors pour in money by Mutual Funds. Can we assume at all times DIIs beat FIIs using Mutual fund? Even if they did, How the performance of market with only DII money will be?

[@malhotrashravan1843]

Literally sir a very good analysis👍 The Sept inflation data was very high and if it continues in Oct too then the chances of RBI increasing rate would also increase and if that happens consumer spending would also start to slow and then there's crude oil tension too if it's prices increase then it is going to hurt FMCG sector very, means from every way FMCG is cornered and we need some better data to come up to support FMCG sector like decreasing in rates, low inflation no, good earnings report or some events that can boost consumer spending and demand like Diwali festival. This what my view is, please guys share your views as well to me so that I can learn or improve some more please🙏🙏

[@kevalkumar9694]

Insightful. Thanks

[@sunandhs542]

Uncertainty is the only certainty in the market, where certainties are uncertain.😢

[@jandeamol]

Meta paas 1000 HUL HAI . Sell karu kya ?

[@SriniVenkata-my4uw]

Don't sell, hold

[@rocky_handsomerh7781]

if ppl are pumping money in dip , do they need to wait till 23600 mark of nifty50 or they should continue ?

[@rajshresthajuneja6045]

Truly insightful.

[@sanjaytatpati8902]

Sir, the broader markets have sunk, though I agree that most Fund Managers use their majority cash with 'SAFE' bets, but in general, there is always a RERATING and Correction or Balancing of the PE across the sectors in such a market correction or pull back. Rebalancing our PFolios' is paramount with adequate amount of 'hedges' since we as retailer dont have much control...

[@mickeypathak]

Awesome learning from this video.

[@mandeepsingh4390]

No news No others you tube channel just watched daily bite . Everything is here

[@karuneshdevsingh]

Question remained the same.. how to decide for entry & exit with such high random valuation? new comer should wait n watch or take call to enter? is it worth to even consider these reliable stocks as "reliable" anymore as they may not go anywhere in next 3 years time also with such high pricing.

[@AlokJain]

Have a plan for each action

[@toscmishra]

Last most of the days buying by DII is more than FII selling then why index is going down, could you please explain ..

[@AlokJain]

Sentiments

[@pulkitgarg7163]

Hindustan Unilever's last 54 months return are 0, it is still at 57 PE. At current Profit growth to bring the PE 28-29 it'll be 7 more years

[@AlokJain]

Yeah

[@hensonvictoria1538]

thanks

[@perumaljanakiraman9126]

Thank You Sir..🙏.Market is very Scary now, not sure when the fall will stop...

[@AlokJain]

Don't be scared. Reduce exposure if feeling scared

[@perumaljanakiraman9126]

@@AlokJain Thank You Sir 🙏

[@snape57]

Awesome views on investing and a investor mindset.. Thanks Sir :) Subscriber to one of your offerings 👍🏼

[@mandarp9472]

9:53 Consumption is down, results are bad. HUL, Asians Painsts, D mart, Bajaj Auto sales are not as per expectations. Company sales are up mostly because of inflation than real growth. GST collection growth has slowed down. Government needs to immediately cut down Income tax rates and GST rates. Government also needs to control housing prices, education costs and healthcare costs so that people are left with more money to spend.

[@AlokJain]

Ya

[@JoiAhom]

E-commerce should be controlled, internal money circulation especially in rural areas have collapsed

[@vinodkhanna1083]

What about the MF investor. They hv been taken for a ride or not

[@winpat9031]

Increasing SIPs in mutual fund is may be one reason for less consumption

[@sachinkhare1708]

The FMCG burst or the unrealistic PE Ratio you discussed is result of Momentum investing 😁 People Knowing or unknowingly doing Momentum investing. Me being in unknowingly gang with you 😬

[@jandeamol]

Instead of direct stocks I think Mutual funds are better

[@neerajkhandelwal3940]

Valuations and PE multiples! Aren't they immaterial to the algorithmic momentum strategies that you espose?

[@AlokJain]

Yes, we don't care ABT them

[@mg.f.9023]

High PEs are exposed without growth. Very true.

[@SriniVenkata-my4uw]

Tomorrow the market might be good

[@amitnakrani]

Sir it's not sudden

[@AlokJain]

Ok

[@AryanGupta-pd9ue]

As long as Ambani and adani spending thousands of crores in wedding everything is fine. Bcoz they are the operators which will make money

[@SriniVenkata-my4uw]

I don't invest in shares with high PE

[@SelvakumarThangavel]

'Capital gains tax on foreign investors is why the market is where it is; India should not get overconfident about capital': Helios Capital's Samir Arora

[@anandradhakrishnan1302]

18000 by parallel channel analysis

[@jandeamol]

Not only fmcg but middle business man is suffering as there is no business . Customer have disappeared from market . Don’t know what is happening

[@anandradhakrishnan1302]

Ratio of FII power to DII power is a million to one. Soon DII will run out of funds

[@sanjay88us]

higher taxation is destroying the economy

[@AlokJain]

Yes. Price for popular politics

[@Historic_Horizons_Travel]

100% true 😢

[@mitesh8utube]

​@@AlokJainI don't think that's true. Someone should compile a data on how much is government actually spending after populist measures. I don't think that's much. I think most of money is being swindled, and populism is falsely being blamed.

[@nitishlele6420]

7.2% Gdp growth bolte

[@sumitalwar]

​@@AlokJain how about un productive and huge salaries and pensions... How about quality of govt schools, hospitals and timely justices in courts. Why are poor to be blamed for that.

[@sampathraoy7524]

This quarter results are clear indication that things are not as pretty as fin influencers were claiming... market are overvalued and companies are not giving results based on my experience it ls time to be cautious and stay way if possible...

[@AlokJain]

Ya

[@garypareto3216]

I wish there was a Super Like button, I have been following you since long but hardly comment on the videos. Your daily videos are making me broad minded with investment in the market. Thanks for your continued efforts.

[@varadigovinda111rajulu7]

Thank u sir❤❤❤❤❤

[@AlokJain]

Most welcome

[@SanjayKumar-hp3rk]

Can't expect companies to grow faster because their PE is higt

[@zeppelin3969]

U have exposed the frailties of this mad 😤 🐂 bull run regardless of the price.The only difference is in the past bull phases, the penny stocks used to go out of hand but now the quality stocks and growth stocks are experiencing it. The new entrants in the retail segment are like Alibaba when they see the jewels in front. They have forgotten the code and the method to sustain their greed and following the Pied Piper who is leading them to their doom with the India Growth story.😂🥴🤔😡

[@ravichandar5426]

if our market is pumping like this when supposedly a small percentage of Indians invest in equities, how much more irrational will it be if, going forward , more Indians invest either directly or through Mutual Funds? scary thought

[@sitakanttripathy5684]

The last 2 mins....Nirvana 🙏

[@vsmunda]

I wonder who is getting the benefits of 7.2% GDP growth......

[@pritammajumdar7178]

Bikaji food,Mrs bectors,Hindustan foods...all are down

[@AlokJain]

Yeah

[@viveksoty]

Bikaji and bectors are overvauled af anyway

[@malhotrashravan1843]

@@viveksoty yeah I also feel the same, bikaji is always kinda overvalued because of his business reputation/goodwill and mainly it comes under FMCG whose Demand is always everygreen! Please correct me if I'm wrong🙏😭

[@mahadevaniyer2726]

My humble funda is, बिस्किट तो खाएगा ही , चप्पल तो पहनेगा ही, सिगरेट तो फूंकेगा ही! etc. so be happy if you have bought it, say, 5-10 years ago, there's absolutely nothing to worry! If there is a fall of 30-40% then double down on the addition! 😊

[@mg.f.9023]

No guarantee which stock will have a major fall. One after other every stock seems to have its turn of its very bad day.

[@bhabani.dash89]

Sir middle class is buying equities now instead of consumption 😂

[@jandeamol]

HUL 1850 mein milega kya

[@ananthnag9144]

Maybe

[@gauravvvvv]

Sir u told FIIs have sold 19% of Equity but Manish Chokhani ji said that poor champs (FIIs) have sold just 10% What's the figure

[@PiyushKundnani1]

19pc of total stocks FIIs own. Out of that only 10pc has been sold. That means 1.9pc of total stocks.

[@gauravvvvv]

@@PiyushKundnani1 Ohh... Thanks 👌😇

[@Arihant997]

Data available in public domain

[@vijaykrishna8035]

Hi Sir, Thank you for your continuous efforts to provide us with insightful details every day. I'm new to the market and have a question about short covering. How does it work? From what I've seen in videos, if we have a sell position and the market goes up, we try to unwind our position using a market order, which causes the price to rise. However, I'm unsure how to short a stock for more than a day. I don't see any option for this in Zerodha and am not sure if any other platform offers it. If shorting is only possible in futures and options, my understanding is that unwinding a short position in options or futures might cause the premium to go up but not the spot price. Is this correct? If so, how does short covering work in the market?

[@AlokJain]

Will do a video

[@ShobhaSharma007]

Futures and options are derivatives, meaning they derive their price fron the value of underlying. Any change in price of underlying directly affects the premium

[@ShobhaSharma007]

U can refer to zerodha varsity content ( i am talking anout text not videos) to understand derivative better

[@ShobhaSharma007]

Eg, When short positions of puts are closed, it leads to short covering of puts which leads to a change in open interest of the particular strike

[@vijaykrishna8035]

Thankyou sir ​@@AlokJain

[@mahadevaniyer2726]

Our Optimistic & Brainwashed Bhai's have committed to long term SIPs! We're factually giving the FIIs a lucrative exit! To mention FMCG sector, Nestle, HUL, ITC and Britannia are 3% of my portfolio! Am I worried? Naah! 😅

[@mahadevaniyer2726]

*3% each!

[@ravindarsingh3002]

We should not develop a behaviour that market always goes up.

[@AlokJain]

Yup

[@James-Bond-007_]

Itna lamba video bnaya lekin ek bar bhi KPIT discuss nhi kiya

[@AlokJain]

KPIT we exited long time back ...

[@James-Bond-007_]

@@AlokJain abhi kya krun fir ye batayen holding 670 quantity @1485

[@James-Bond-007_]

Abhi kya karen ye btaiye holding 670 at Rs. 1485

[@satishpatel5414]

👌💐🙏💐

[@aritrabhattacharya1530]

23400

[@राधेराधे-ध4न]

Nifty fair value as per current situation of businesses is 15000

[@AlokJain]

Ok

[@ziasmailbox]

mera ghar jayenga isme

[@prithwishroy19]

😊0😊