Fonseca Overwhelms Rublev in Slam Debut | Australian Open 2025

18-year old Joao Fonseca, making his major tournament debut at the 2025 Australian Open, beat 9-seed Andrey Rublev in three-sets in a highly anticipated first round match. In this breakdown and analysis, we'll discuss how Fonseca's signature groundstroke pace was too much for Rublev, why he's so much more than just a great forehand, why Brazil helps his cause and so much more. We'll end with some thoughts on Rublev's mental health comments in an interview with The Guardian.
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Gill Gross provides in-depth ATP tennis analysis. Match breakdowns, draw previews, the latest news, and other tennis insights...

[@enigmaparadox987]

Fonseca is phenomenal. To beat Rublev in straight sets with poise and power is very remarkable!! Let's see how he progresses this tournament. He's a unique talent.

[@alexandrecorrea5879]

The backhand winner down the line on the 5-5 (third set breaker) was just insane. I´d definitely pay a ticket just to watch him hitting some of those massive winners. Astonishing technique! Hope he can go deeper! Let´s go JOAO!

[@willzsportscards]

It took my breath away lol. No joke.

[@GuilhermeGomes12467]

He WILL go deeper

[@viniciusfreitas7004]

João

[@mateuskleindossantos4259]

What about that wonderfull slice he did? Phenomenon

[@RicardoB-he5ht]

What striked me the most was his composure, demeanor and personality in the big stage as a 18 year old boy. When the game was at its peak, he remained focused, and when he won those big points, he called the crowd to the party. He’s going to have a big fan base.

[@rickrivers2021]

I don't even think Rublev played bad this time, Joao was just another level

[@GabrielMiranda-mc9ip]

As a listener of the channel and today especially, as a brazilian, I was counting the minutes to listen about João's game. Vamossss!

[@pedrogb512]

Esperei o dia todo por isso

[@ostrogodo]

Eu também!

[@GuilhermeGomes12467]

Me too

[@FernandoLinense]

Me 2!

[@dani__crocs]

É nóis!

[@sopdadope]

Wait til Fonseca plays in the Miami later this year. The crowd will be nuts.

[@guilhermeaugusto7566]

I hope he plays cause i'll be there with my brazilian flag for sure

[@frankellis9627]

Why Miami? 🤔

[@geovanewickert2346]

Many brazilians live in Miami

[@frankellis9627]

@@geovanewickert2346 Oh, ok. I live in San Francisco far from Miami 😲

[@RodrigoGomes-bw6gb]

Miami!!! I can t wait to see he playing at Rio Open. It will be insane. And probably this year he will not need even a wild card to the main draw.

[@Pensistêmico]

“The Brazooka”

[@GinoFerreri]

That's what we're called outside Brazil LOL

[@Pensistêmico]

@@GinoFerreri Brazuca + Bazooka

[@ostrogodo]

Nice

[@GinoFerreri]

@@PensistêmicoBrazilian and English versions respectively

[@brunoxd151]

That's a perfect nickname for him! I hope it sticks lol

[@icefalcon2243]

Fonz playing so strong in every match- the kid is ridiculous with an absolutely gorgeous game. Beautiful strokes. very stylized, powerful and clean. Pure joy to watch!

[@magnuszebitzsteiness8759]

Fonseca is insane! 🔥🙌

[@rrscookson]

Your analysis of Fonseca's skills is spot on and very perceptive. His forehand is simply amazing, but his backhand is super solid defensively and he can do some damage on that side as well if given time. As you mentioned, his backhand is not a weakness that allows opponents to exploit it to stay away from his forehand. I am from Brazil, coach a bit of tennis in Miami, and can't recall seeing such a complete player with the physical skills and the mental strength at such a young age. I saw Roger Federer win the Orange Bowl as a junior against Guillermo Coria and was quite impressed with him. The future looks good for Fonseca and for Brazilian fans.

[@Erik83474]

So true!!!

[@victorbicudo1374]

Brasil é com S

[@meepchip]

Great commentary after his win: this match was his entrance to the top 100 with his destination the top 10

[@steverino2047]

Also I mentioned I saw him at the qualifiers last year at the US Open. His mom was incredibly nice and charming and he has a very supportive large fan base. There’s a healthy vibe there that shows in his maturity and general mental well-being.

[@jeevanburri9862]

Its one thing to beat a top 10 player on your GS debut,but doing it with so much expextation on you is truly special.We may have witnessed the arrival of a generational talent

[@Tulio_Fonseca]

You probably know this already, but every time you analyze Fonseca, us, the Brazilians, will engage massively! VAMO JOÃO!!!!!!

[@marcosfarahnagato4886]

As a Brazilian tennis fan, and being aware that we should give time for Fonseca to develop, when the draw came out I thought "that's unlucky for Joao", but now it's clear that it's surely the other way around!

[@ntuthukomadlala9947]

😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

[@DanielRohr]

This is what we need! Thanks for the content, as always, Gill. Here in Brazil your videos are a huge success amoung tennis players groups and forums.

[@cloba9414]

Excellent analysis, Gill! I was so impressed by how much safety margin João had for those brilliant winners. You highlighted this perfectly in your commentary. It’s also worth noting Andrey’s warm embrace at the net-he really does seem like such a genuinely nice bloke. The Guardian article about him is well worth a read!

[@J.O.R_BR_Overclocking]

Link?

[@jacobschmidt2709]

"he really does seem like such a genuinely nice bloke" Aussie detected.

[@leosgf]

I'm here to congratulate you on your take a couple days ago. Here in Rio, Brazil we knew this could be possible but you were one of the few on the internet that called this one...

[@g2tennis]

It's amazing how much Fonseca's serve improved, not only comparing to a year ago, but right before the Next Gen Finals, in the 4 challengers he played. He got to Jeddah serving 220, 225km serve bombs one after the other, impressive.

[@drbobinski1]

This kid is really dangerous. Gonna go out on a limb and call him into the next big three-Sinner, Alvarez, Fonseca. He moves like Federer, very athletic and smooth, court IQ and cardio. It took two full sets to see him sweat and Rublev makes you run. Very excited for this young man.

[@ROYAL_REBEL]

Alcaraz.

[@drbobinski1]

@@ROYAL_REBEL oops thanks for the correction.

[@黃日恆-l1n]

I think Fonseca’s game is AT LEAST top 50 in the world now, and he’s 18. His maturity in the past few months does not belong to his age, plus he has one of the best ground stroke mechanisms in the game. Insane. He is going places.

[@GuilhermeGomes12467]

Totally agree

[@ZlatniPlast]

Top 50? Top 50 guy does not win Rublev 3:0!! But a top 10

[@brunoxd151]

He played at top 10 level against Rublev. He could defeat other top 10 players with that level

[@ZlatniPlast]

@@brunoxd151 His only problem now is his endurance. At 18 you can't be near as good as guys in prime...tennis prime is around 23-28

[@tomg6826]

You can tell that Gill is really excited about this guy. Can't blame him.

[@Roman-cv2pd]

I was at Rod Laver Arena watched de minaur play and i tried so hard to get into Margaret Court to see Fonseca. They didnt let me in i was so pissed. Imagine being right there but you cant watch. All tickets sold out

[@tarnyshd__dash__4850]

.... I was just as impressed as the rest of you. The kid is 18 and already perfection is expected. Just think of all the names you no longer remember. I hope he's as good as he looks right now, certainly has my attention.

[@TopEveryThing-yi3py]

AS ALWAYS GILL PREDICTED THE BOY TO BE SUCCESSFUL

[@amya.5852]

I haven’t seen any Australian Open-sorry I missed Fonseca. Will try to catch him later. Thanks for your analysis

[@drjeziel]

João Fonseca Will be the future number 1 🔥🔥

[@EmilyMoyer]

Excellent analysis as always, my friend. You were the first tennis mind to bring Fonseca to my attention last year during the South American clay swing. I couldn’t quite see it at first, but by fall I could begin to see what you saw. Now everyone sees it. Good call… Lol.

[@GinoFerreri]

This kid is on a crazy win streak. Rublev was ran over by a powerful phenom. He knew it'd be tough but not that tough to the point Rublev was AVOIDING his forehand. Sonego: watch out buddy!

[@GuilhermeGomes12467]

Couldnt agree more

[@priscilameirelles2488]

As a Brazilian tennis fan, I couldn't be happier. Gill, your guess is right. YES, Brazilians are EVERYWHERE. We are so excited to see João playing big matches. We think he might be as big as Guga Kuerten. It's so nice to see the world excited about him too. 😊 Love your videos. PS.: the screen behind you with the video was a bit distracting. If I were you, I wouldn't play it again.

[@henriquelaydner4080]

I know it might be a little bit early to make such statement, but Fonseca has the potential for being huger than Guga, not only because he’s blossoming earlier, but mainly because he’s a better well rounded player when playing on different surfaces.

[@ptiwari2392]

Im just excited to see Fonseca more on tour....his matches are gonna be electric for sure! can you imagine fonseca vs alcaraz? that shit would be so hype.

[@ZlatniPlast]

He is 18. But he is next big 3

[@joshheinink]

Gotta see that

[@steverino2047]

His second serve is so unique that it bears mention. He’ll occasionally even hit it as a first serve. I know - that sounds crazy, but it’s true.

[@ustulo3488]

Brazil hasn't had a huge tennis star since one of my all-time favorite players Gustavo Kuerten. This kid might just be the one. Don't be surprised if he makes the final he plays with zero fear.

[@EdMonteiro]

Calma, emocionado kkkk Mas o menino tem um futuro promissor. Potencial grande

[@ZlatniPlast]

After Djokovic retires, I will back Fonseca to win everything, but he is 18 and his body can not last more than 2 and a half sets yet! He is a new member of Big3 with Alcaraz and Sinner and I hope Ognjen Milic also shows his full talent soon

[@jacobschmidt2709]

​@@ZlatniPlast"his body cannot last more than 2 and a half sets yet" Didn't he just win 3 sets, with 2 tiebreakers against Rublev? 🤔

[@brunob5038]

Amazing tennis content! Subscribing rigor now. Congats from Brazil.

[@celiogouvea]

Fonceca is very powerful all around the court.

[@afonsomielli7023]

Fonseca won Artur Fills twice, and he is aTop 20, before this game agaist Rublev.

[@raywill8638]

I was thinking about that too ! But wasn’t sure if those matchups were during the next gen finals

[@ttrnet123]

Fonseca handled Rublev's pace like it was a club match

[@JCEmmons]

Appreciate you Gil, your picks have been on 🔥

[@TopEveryThing-yi3py]

IT GIVES ME ALCARAZ VIBES FROM 2021 ONWARDS

[@ZlatniPlast]

He has way bigger backhand than Alcaraz and is better spot server. On the other hand Alcaraz has better touch and drop shots

[@JAM-fm8lt]

He is mentally stable unlike Alcarez.

[@al1976-v7m]

He doesn't move as fast and dynamic as Carlos though

[@ZlatniPlast]

@@al1976-v7m he has longer arms and bigger steps tough

[@jacobschmidt2709]

​@@ZlatniPlastAnd a much better body, endurance and speed.

[@J.O.R_BR_Overclocking]

Dang, Gill got us with the cliffhanger there at the end.

[@io102]

Thanks for the video Gil!

[@dj7oya]

Joo uhh oom 🔥 Mr Gross, you are FONSEQUIZADO!

[@CliveBramham]

Astonishing Fonseca

[@willzsportscards]

Dude. Did I really just see that? When you're that young, gonna have ups and downs, so he may have a bad day and get knocked out soon...but my god...the arsenal is already all there. Defense can get better. He's only 18. It will come as he gets stronger. If he stays hungry and humble, he could push Sinner and Carlos sooner than later. Tennis really could use a new face. Fingers crossed.

[@ronnie9077]

I think the media hype and expectations are driving his success way out. He has so much confidence right now that he actually might make the quarters or better

[@malekat8539]

To beating potentially Tiafoe, Medvedev, and playing against Sinner?

[@lukekaehne9091]

I could see him potentially beating Tiafoe but not Meddy unfortunately, although after seeing his first match, Meddy might already be tired by that stage. On that note, could definitely see it.

[@JonathanIsrael-k4g]

I would bet on him winning the whole tournament. I’m really serious about that. He’s going to easily go through Tiafoe and Medvedev to win his bracket and then he’ll frustrate Sinner and/or Alcaraz after that to win his first Grand Slam.

[@ZlatniPlast]

​@@JonathanIsrael-k4gLoooooooool. I need your kid spirit. Fonseca can not play 4 sets at high quality cause he is still a kid at 18

[@jacobschmidt2709]

​@@JonathanIsrael-k4gThe kids got a good shot to make the 4th round and he might beat Medvedev since the Russian has declined. But no way is he beating multi-slam champions in Sinner and Alcaraz.

[@jtbaldur]

One of the first tennis matches I ever watched was Fonseca against Alex Molcan in Rio 2023. Molcan won 6-0, 6-3. To see how far that little 16 year old has gotten is insane

[@Yan-dv7lo]

He was 16yo at that time. Incredible how fast time flies and how much he has improved in such a short period of time

[@joekerr6392]

Amazing talent, especially for an 18 yr old, and he handled the dumb interview after the match with class as well.

[@amya.5852]

😂 the interviews can be bad. I’m reminded of the Aussie Renee Stubbs asking the players “what happened in the bathroom, your play was so different when you came back to court.” Cringe

[@humbertopieronineto8019]

João is the guy!

[@joaomarcostorres9457]

Yes. Brazilians are everywhere. Literally.

[@diogokling1260]

Braziiiiilllll

[@td657]

COME TO BRAZIL!!!

[@eduardoennes8426]

João Machine Fonseca.

[@pedrokoury1352]

The Brazooka!

[@ostrogodo]

Gill is Fonsequizado

[@meinsouza]

Gill.... You clearly are "fonsequizado" 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

[@Game-Set-Match]

Vamos Brasil 🇧🇷

[@Ecologist_STALKER]

And he has the fastest forehand in AO!!!!!! At 18!!!!

[@Gabmenini]

5:15- I think you left this in by accident gill

[@GillGross]

Thanks for pointing that out! I got the KZbin edit function on it, but it takes a while to process.

[@ericksiqueira1031]

Your analysis is dynamite, man!

[@michael8597]

Another indepth and insightful analysis dwelving into technics and thus not falling for the hype by Gill.

[@joshheinink]

He might even get top20 this year

[@TheManavk]

great video

[@PedroDaim]

I was waiting for this. I would dare to say Fils is becoming a top player though. Fonseca is 2x0 against him.

[@murilorodrigues8263]

Improve my english and listen about tennis. Vlw Gill abraços do Brasil

[@wahn10]

Unlimited power!! as Emperor Palpatine would say. And not only power, but mental strength at key moments.

[@stef_v]

As a prospect, he's on the same level Alcaraz was. No doubt a 3rd member of the new big 3.

[@matthewmalagari2465]

Can we chill? He may yet become a great champion, but he has only won a round one match so far. Let’s see how he plays out this tournament and then see if he can maintain his level over several tournaments

[@tijgertjekonijnwordopgegeten]

I would put him more on the level of Sinner at the same age, but he might actually be right in between depending on how quick his development is.

[@JAM-fm8lt]

He is better than Alcarez.

[@stef_v]

@ Gill's tweet: "You can wait for the results, you can wait for the "proof" but you'll be late to the party. I'm going to watch the tennis and trust my eyes, which are seeing a rare talent on his way to greatness."

[@ricardlopez598]

Impatient, to watch your Mailbag about Fonseca. I think you have checked the boxes for be an Grand Slam winner. the only doubt is endurance in matches of 5 sets. The rest, seems that he has all the weapons, defensive skills, Athletic, good mover, shot selection, mental strenght, plays well big points. Technically, which shots are the weakests? Thanks in advance

[@TheBitterPill]

He played great, but I wouldn't say he overwhelmed him. It was a very close match.

[@teqii]

vamossss

[@joaopedrorubez1700]

Gil Gross, I have a question for u. Why you used exactly 2:28+ minutes? Has some games that fonseca has 16 years. If you used 2:25+ the numbers will changed a lot. Only 3 minutes. For example, x Rublev 2:27, just 1 minute! He need to improve this of course but 2:28 wasnt a good number. Im like a lot your vídeos, but this time im not understand why u put 2:28.

[@leonardoleite1085]

Great review. Ground stroke and server pace is great indeed, but other player also have bigg weapons like these. What is really interesting is his ability to keep his mind clear and focused. The question is, how consistently/for how long can you drop bombs? On the other hand Fonseca is not as athletic as other big guys like mensik or hurkacs, and he seems to o get aced more than the average agaist the flat serve down the T.

[@felipecavalcanti290]

Brazooka!

[@andrecarlos7747]

Please activate the automatic subtitles!

[@utkarshdeshmukh8864]

Your predictions prove your indepth understanding of playing styles and game sense. Rublev, tsitsipas and Rudd all out. Machac best Opelka. Looks good to give Novak a tough match as well.

[@bw7601]

What’s on your computer?

[@sylvio9771]

He is our last hope after Guga retired

[@meisu3287]

Fonseca was super daring at the crucial moment. You need to be brave to be a champion. He will be a big 3 and I do hope he will totally over take sinner as I cant stand the doper

[@princesofthepower3690]

This is why I rate Fonseca above Mensik and Michelsen.

[@danielnoronha5654]

Omg🔥

[@daniloaugustodemoraes2665]

Cololca legenda em portugues que você vai ganhar muitos seguidores... Seus comentários são tops...

[@luizrosatti417]

Coloca o vídeo legendado em ingles e configura para portugues

[@marlenebuls9535]

Will he last?.or will the vile tennis media destroy him Look how they have turned on Alcaraz- he was the darling- not so much anymore

[@rickrivers2021]

Wdym? He hasn't declined at all, whether in popularity or in level

[@520LUNNY]

What?

[@marlenebuls9535]

@rickrivers2021 read!

[@cgvoice-l1o]

I don't think it's the media, as Alcaraz is pretty beloved, but I know what you mean. Tennis fans will attack him when he eventually hits any form of a slump. Time will tell if even Alcaraz can whether the storm, but I'm concerned about that as well. People need to just let him develop and not put such high of expectations on him so early on. He's going to be great but it's not going to be smooth sailing to a (hopeful) future #1 without hitting bumps along the way.

[@GinoFerreri]

I just want to make an observation to everyone here. Fonseca should avoid push his forehand when he's in perfect balance to rip his monster forehand when he returns serves. There's no reason, no tactic to hit his forehand like Wawrinka does so often. Hit the bejesus out of that ball cross court or aim at the opponent's shoelaces for God's sake!! You have a bazooka but you're switching it for a pocket knife?! Don't be kind Fonaeca! Go commando on your opponents going forward.

[@Bigbanggbig]

Sonego will beat him, just Watch

[@gibbleway]

why is this guy making a giving felatio face in his thumbnail??

[@joshheinink]

Already top 100 where will he be season end

[@amya.5852]

Oh boy-poor Rublev out early in another major. Time to get a new coach Andrey??

[@Grooveboxin]

How is this kid 18, he already has a big body. Look at Carlos when he was 18, super skinny.

[@Mrsimpleton26]

First

[@RossG01]

Odd choice of thumbnail I must say...

[@GillGross]

@@RossG01 why?

[@RossG01]

@GillGross My immature mind envisions something else, don't mind me😅

[@GillGross]

@@RossG01 that’s what I feared 🤦‍♂️

[@esscce]

Why can't the women play best of 5 sets best of 4 games, is it futile

[@tijgertjekonijnwordopgegeten]

Why can't they just play best of 5? Endurance is one of the only physical attributes where women don't differ much from men.

[@esscce]

@tijgertjekonijnwordopgegeten best of 4 games dummy

[@jacobschmidt2709]

It would certainly set slams apart from other tournaments in the women's game. I third this notion.

[@nikhils2381]

It should be Australian Open 2025 in the title

[@GillGross]

Thanks for catching

[@jameshunter6289]

Tennis Jesus walks among us 🙄

[@blbl126]

You monoglots better get used to the nasal sounds.

[@usermatisse]

One thing to remember is that yes he was phenomenal today, but Rublev currently is a top30 player, it's almost one year that he's the weakest in the top 10 and had a bad season. He beat Sinner in Montreal, true, but apart that he's in negative moment of his career since months. So yes, Fonseca did great, but I think it's too early to know if he can be phenomenal in general or just today