Football Betting Tips | How To Predict Goals In Football Matches

In this video, I'll show you an easy way to predict the result of football matches. You don't need to know anything about football, just a few simple principles and some maths!
This is not a get rich quick scheme, but it does work well for most games.
This video continues the series where we are looking at how to analyse football matches. To watch the other videos visit: -
www.betangelac...
In this video, we take some standard match odds and use them to create a price or correct score market for 0-0.
By pricing the betting odds on 0-0 we are saying, what is the chance of no goals. So if we can work that out, we can then rank all matches and find those that are more suitable for betting or trading.
Hopefully, this will fill in your football prediction knowledge just a little bit further.
#football #bettingtips #betting

[@mufc7476]

One of my most profitable methods is over 1.5 goals in play when the game is 0-0 at around 20-25 mins. The market jumps a bit at that time.

[@iwansetiawan-fr8mo]

This is for all league ?

[@iospetrosky2]

This is very interesting and I'm trying to replicate the spreadsheet, but I don't understand how you calculate the RANK column

[@betangeltv]

RANK is just an Excel command to rank a column in any specified order. It's just a quick way for me to look at things.

[@grahambeyer6254]

What type of strategy would you deploy in these markets?

[@grahambeyer6254]

Can you put a link in the description to the next video in the series please?

[@roby823]

sorry, I can't understand how you get 32%, 45%, 18%, what calculation should I do?

[@betangeltv]

Those are the chance of that particular draw occuring. A 0-0, i.e. no goals is 32% of the draw price.

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

I notice you missed out the 0-9 scoreline. I guess that's not too surprising as you're a Southampton fan.

[@betangeltv]

I've no idea what you are talking about 🤣

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

@@betangeltv 🤣😜

[@ibrahimbah3135]

I want to get this link. Percentage of goods.

[@No-ProJoe]

Why not just look at the over 1.5 or 2.5 odds to see what chance there are if goals?

[@betangeltv]

Because you are looking for moments when the market is wrong.

[@No-ProJoe]

All I'm seeing in this video is a calculative process by looking at the draw odds, to work out the percentage chance of how many goals will be in a match, but also you appear to assume that the market is correct as well, therefore it just seems a like a long winded way of working out what we may already be able to see at a quick glance in the overs /unders? I don't understand what I'm missing here 😭😅

[@betangeltv]

It's important to know how odds are calculated so you can play with parameters, look for errors or anticipate what price they should be if something changes. That allows you to stay one step ahead of the market.

[@Karwan1988]

Would u please make a video about, how to bet 1× 12 2× thanks

[@signal200]

This is a good video Peter and I'm assuming that this calculation is now part of the expected goals feature you recently added to BA ? I have been using the expected goals feature for about a month and its looking pretty accurate so far. I'm starting to trust it more and have it built into an automation file for the Unders/overs markets. Is there a way of working out what the expected goals would be as a percentage?

[@betangeltv]

Thank you for your support and feedback! It means a lot to know the feature is helping you out. This video should help - kzbin.info/www/bejne/fqeUdYSqrbWll7c

[@carollynne5943]

Hi Peter..there are no exchanges in my country but match predictions has huge prizes when you get like 15 correct..Done before kick off..whats the best winning strategy.

[@betangeltv]

You may want to have a look at this video - kzbin.info/www/bejne/aV6sq4ysaNJ9ask Picking 15 matches is a mighty task however.

[@ViPeRGtXHD]

So if I wanted to do 2-0 as for 2 up offers I worked out say odds are at 10.5 divided it by 1 came up 95% chance. You for a draw done a overall chance from 0-0 and with 1-1 etc can you use this method just on 2-0 up? And if so how do I get a overall percentage. Hope I explained it well but just trying to get my head around it

[@betangeltv]

There will be another follow-up video in the series to discuss all other scorelines and how they fit together with this sort of modelling. A shortcut, though not highly accurate, is to just use the percentages against match odds. That will get you part of the way there.

[@matthlock]

I'm a little confused as to why you multiple the chance of a draw by the chance of it being 0-0? You would only do that for independent variables that you need to work out the chance of both happening (AND instead of OR). But since 0-0 is a draw, isn't that probability already baked into the draw?

[@betangeltv]

The chance of a draw is the sum of 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 etc. So the reciprocal is the chance of the draw, multiplied by the chance of the draw being 0-0 from any of the possibly draw possibilities.

[@SJG86]

Hello. Having looked at the spreadsheet. It looks like the higher the draw odds, the better chance you have of goals in the game. Would that not be easier/save alot of time with data input/spreadsheets etc. Isnt it going to givd same result?

[@betangeltv]

Because that's too simplistic. You can get matches that look the same, but the underlying stats show you that it's not.

[@SJG86]

@@betangeltv ok. Thank you 👍

[@petervlcko4858]

this is good in depth video for people who want to understand exact part of what they are doing and picture that into some action and what results will come out of them. it is a tool for scrapping things not necessary and what to keep. thanks for this.

[@betangeltv]

Thanks for your comment

[@paulhumphreys5718]

Hi Peter, isn't this just a rehash of what you've explained in previous videos regarding this subject? Surely how many goals there are likely to be in a game is reflected in the odds and the only way of winning is to find an edge, which is becoming more and more difficult with all the stats available on various sites!!!

[@betangeltv]

We need this video to get to the next in the series. Having a model will allow you to see if you have a potential edge or be more able to understand potential mispricings. I actually think football is one of the easier markets to price as the variability and lack of goals means chance plays a bigger hand.

[@paulhumphreys5718]

Yes that would certainly be true of the Africa Cup Of Nations....Anyone betting on Under 2.5 goals would have done very well so far!!! As a matter of interest did you predict this would happen Peter?

[@betangeltv]

Major football tournaments tend to have lower scoring rates as there is a strong incentive not to lose.

[@placebo64]

Your timing is perfect. Either that or you are THE prophet. In any case, thank you!

[@betangeltv]

Many thanks