Forecasting Portfolio Returns In NewRetirement

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Moran Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. This content or the content on this channel prior to February 26, 2024 was published by Secure Your Retirement Now LLC and not by Moran Wealth Management, LLC. Trent Grzegorczyk was the owner of Secure Your Retirement Now LLC. Mr. Grzegorczyk was also the owner of Resilient Financial Planning, LLC, a Michigan registered investment adviser and any advisory services were provided by Resilient Financial Planning, LLC. As of February 26, 2024, the content is provided by Moran Wealth Management, LLC and any reference to advisory services would be provided by Moran Wealth Management, LLC. Moran Wealth Management, LLC is not responsible for the content created prior to February 26, 2024.
The content on this page and/or video is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Specifically, the content is intended to provide education and tools for individuals looking to handle their retirement planning on their own. Should you need personalized investment advice, you should consult with a registered investment adviser. Any communications on this page with other individuals that are not associated with Moran Wealth Management, LLC are done voluntarily by users and are unsupervised and unaffiliated with Moran Wealth Management, LLC and Moran Wealth Management, LLC has no responsibility or liability over any discussions or advice that may be given. Moran Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and can provide investment advice. If you are interested in Moran Wealth Management, LLC’s advisory services, you can contact us at 239-920-4440 or [e-mail].
#retirement #planning #DIY #personalcapital #newretirement #fintech #rothconversions #taxplanning #investing #theretirementplanningcoach #theretirementplanningclub #2022

[@radiok2ua]

I really don't understand the reasoning for reducing the CAGR by 1%. It's the Optimistic number you're entering, not the Average. When I look at scenarios in NewRetirement, I am never looking at Optimistic numbers--it's only Pessimistic or Average, and Average is already just the average of the Optimistic and Pessimistic values. So that seems to reduce the Average to the point where it's unrealistically low. That said, I don't have a body of data to support the reasonableness of choosing that more pessimistic value, but it seems that it would set you off on a too-conservative path with respect to withdrawal strategy, Roth conversions, tax strategies, and various other things that could be quite problematic.

[@bobackerman54]

as far as i am concerned although valuable, this video makes entering a value for my expected returns to complex ... what i would prefer is you stating your value if 100% stock or 100% bond or 100% cash ... i could then calculate a number based on your typical recommendations ... i.e. if you said 8% if stocks only and 2% if bonds only I would average the two and come out with 5% if i had a 50-50 mix of stocks and bonds ... anything else than a 50-50 mix woud require weighting your recommendations which can be calculated with simple math ... ALL in ALL i TREMENDOUSLY appreciate your promotion of the NewRetirement software which appears to be AWESOME to this beginner ...

[@RetirementPlanningClub]

Hey Bob! You can keep it simple: Check out Vanguard's page and find an allocation close to yours: advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/advisor/csa/analysisTools/portfolioAnalytics/historicalRiskReturn

[@tomheaton3101]

This was great!

[@RetirementPlanningClub]

Thanks Tom!! Glad it was helpful. I’ll be sharing many more like this…stay tuned.

[@sixstringsdaddy2477]

Your Optimistic number seems too low. Backtest should be much closer to the average than the optimistic, and discounting it further makes for rather muted optimism. Yes,.better safe than sorry, but I'd rather avoid working another 5-years or not afford a trip because I was too cautious.

[@ProPilotWannaBe]

Can you explain why is it that you use the Montecarlo "50th Percentile" as the "Optimistic Return of Rate" in NewRetirement. Is it because you typically use the Optimistic view in NewRetirement instead of the Average? To me it makes more sense to use the 10th Percentile, and the 90th Percentile minus 1 percent, and then use the Average view in NewRetirement. Can you explain the rationale? Thanks!

[@matthewjkuo]

Do you have any suggestions on how to use this tool for an allocation that changes over time? How would we simulate having a 100% stock portfolio in your 20s and gradually going to a 60/40 or a 50/50 when we get closer to retirement?

[@drichman69]

Great video! You mentioned getting your averages from within Personal Capital based on our actual holdings. Can you tell us where you find that?

[@RetirementPlanningClub]

Dean, you'll need to use Portfolio Visualizer's backtesting tool to get historical performance for your asset allocation.

[@drichman69]

@@RetirementPlanningClub Got it. At about the 6 minute mark, you mentioned how Personal Capital factored in the 1% reduction, but I now see that you were referring to when you use the PC Retirement Planner. I wish the PC folks would integrate the historical load testing of my actual portfolio vs me having to use estimates (i.e. 60\40) in Portfolio Visualizer (and yeah, I could add ALL my holding to PV, but...no, I don't have that kind of time)

[@RetirementPlanningClub]

@@drichman69 No need to add all holdings...high level asset allocation works. Grab your high level allocation from PC and use that in PV. This way you can grab more historical data. If you use individual holdings you might be only grabbing the last 5-10 years worth of data, which isn't enough as it doesn't include enough bear market data. Start your free trial of RPC and join the next few group coaching sessions, I can help.

[@MrGGMB]

Hi How do I talk with you.

[@RetirementPlanningClub]

Hi Gerry, join the new community and hop on a coaching call with me. You can do that here: secureyourretirementnow.com/rpc/