Former World Champion Suspects Hikaru Is Cheating ?!?

[@johnclikeman5041]

Multiple things can be true: online chess has a serious cheating problem, and throwing out random accusations based on bad math makes the situation worse, not better.

[@neerajnongmaithem392]

accusations should have a sound base to even having a conversation upon. the fact that kramk levelled these accusations without even analysing the said games under question is upsetting, all the games are up for online for analysis and we have video evidence of Hikaru making mistakes and reacting, he had an average accuracy of 80% against 2350-2400 fide rated players, while he has rating of 2780+. people would have paid more attention if kramk had taken some time and analysed the games under question.

[@mbarrett99]

It doesn’t help the cause if you constantly call “wolf” with little justification.

[@jgone4856]

It's not bad math, it's biased data

[@noone-ld7pt]

This is absolutely absurd from Kramnik. We've all seen Hikaru *adopt* 2600+ GMs like Eric Hansen several times over the years and even adopted Naroditsky live on stream while he casually explained every move. Videos can be found all over youtube. He also went 10-0 in the 3+1 portion adopting Hou Yifan who had a peak of 2680, right below super GM. I am not necessarily the biggest Hikaru fan but him being able to achieve those scores against IMs and FMs is not the least bit surprising. And when you start considering factors like tilt, streaky tendencies, playing style mismatches, and the sheer amount of games Hikaru plays online (50k+ on his main account alone) it becomes almost inevitable that he would eventually have results like that. I mean if we're looking at "statistically suspicious" streaks Magnus won 11 games in a row against mostly super GMs in Croatia. If you calculate the performance rating on those specific games out of context it comes out at over 3500, which obviously only seems achievable by Stockfish. But as someone who's ACTUALLY university-trained in statistics, cherrypicking and highlighting the extremes of a data set is a textbook example of how *not* to draw conclusions. Kramnik is letting his paranoia run away from him and finding ghosts in the data. He is obviously extremely qualified in the chess aspect but his competence when it comes to reliable data and statistic evaluation is quite frankly embarrassing here. There is no doubt that there is a massive cheating problem that needs to be taken way more seriously at every level, but him making a fool of himself like this actually hurts the case instead of helping it.

[@seinundzeiten]

he refers to these guys as 2950 players, when at best they are around 2300-2400

[@DavidBrown-en1sq]

Kramnik is referring to their online ratings. The allegations are ridiculous though, no doubt.

[@kayblis]

@@DavidBrown-en1sq He also only mentioned the online ratings of his opponents and not Hikaru's online rating which happens to be nearly 300 ELO points higher. Again he's just cherry-picking whatever information makes his case seem more legit.

[@JonathanElzur]

Well said noone. Honestly, nothing more needs to be said. But one minor addition: I think Christian (and anyone else) could look up and see how often streaks like this happen for other top GMs online (like you did for Magnus, but systematically for many GMs). I'm sure this will support your conclusion.

[@Flashyfinancier]

Hum...okay, but care to explain to us why you are not a big Hikaru fan?

[@D.U.D.E-]

Kramnik basically said, "hey look at that professional MMA fighter just had a 50-0 record against college wrestlers" 💀

[@AnkhArcRod]

Kramnik shot himself in the foot by going after Hikaru. Now, everyone else will give this example as a way to defend themselves. If you watch the games, you can see how scrappy those games were, at least in the initial stages, and a lot of them were won due to a last-second blunder by his opponents!

[@JM-tj5qm]

That doesn't mean anything. A strong player can cheat in ways that are hard/almost impossible to detect. Caruana said it, if he wanted to cheat, he could just play "badly" wait until his opponent blunders and capitalize on it and nobody could stop him. And that's exactly the type of play you described. You cannot detect smart cheating at that level just by looking at the play, the only way to prove suspicious activity is by high sample statistical analysis.

[@dirtydeadasheville]

Hikaru may not be a data scientist, but he sure did call "bull!!&$&#'"

[@Fluxion11]

Kramnik shot himself in the foot long ago. Dude is not good at analyzing data sets. Really, he should just stop and stick to chess.

[@Rohanifed]

@@JM-tj5qmyour post is what doesn’t mean anything. What you’re saying is “anyone can cheat at any time” and the better you perform outside of the norm (I.e. have a good day which will always occur with enough games), the more likely you’re a cheater. I.e. anyone with a streak (or more precisely anyone who has enough games) is a cheater. What a stupid and dangerous way to “catch cheaters”. What a dangerous precedent to set about how easy it is to accuse someone.

[@AnkhArcRod]

@@JM-tj5qm Yeah. Caruana also said that it is hard to cheat in the time scrambles where decisions are made in a split second, and understanding the logic of one move is not so easy. So, one would have to cheat continuously using a special mod which would be visible to everyone since the games are livestreamed. You would have to create a cheat overlay that is somehow not captured by the screengrab being done during streaming. A second screen is out of the question for time scrambles where moves are made in less than a second. In the games he was winning outright, he had good positions to begin with. I am also not a Hikaru fanboy per se but I know how strong he is and so do all his peers.

[@tajneeley]

I don’t even like Hikaru but he’s definitely not cheating 💀

[@ExcellsNT]

Hikaru farmed rating from an IM, another IM who barely plays anymore, and a 15 year old FM. He was boosting his rating and he knows who to play to do it. The cheating accusations are ridiculous.

[@rexfariss5653]

Sandbagging, on the other hand...

[@TheMaestromMephisto]

​@@rexfariss5653sandbagging is willingly losing to play lower rated and yo beat them, Hikaru didn't willingly lose so it's not sandbagging either

[@boniface494]

Hikaru should take it as a compliment

[@alcubierrevj]

How does a super GM gain rating points grinding IMs and FMs?

[@Speedster___]

@@alcubierrevj You are 2500 and you play a 2000 (just using nice numbers). I dont know exact math but the 2500 is has x% chance to win. Any win gains points you never punished for winning however if you draw the 2500 loses a lot of points but the 2000 gains. And that point chnage is much bigger if its an upset win. Think of it as equilibrum. Both players being equal trends to the average rating

[@sungod9797]

There’s also the fact that he live-streams almost all his online games, while talking to chat, explaining his thought process, premoving, predicting what the opponent will play out loud and discussing what he’ll do in response, as well as analyzing games afterwards coherently. Plus, his relative strength actually increases in faster non-increment time controls such as bullet, which is the opposite of what you’d expect if someone was receiving assistance, since they would be too slow if they had to process the computer input (especially because web-based engines don’t give accurate evaluations in the first small fraction of a second, and because it doesn’t facilitate premoves). He’s obviously not cheating, and Kramnik is destroying his reputation with this nonsensical insinuation.

[@celsus7979]

Because of talent and experience he is much quicker than his opponents. If you check those 46 games I'm sure you will find multiple lost positions where he won by flagging.

[@dmsalomon]

Hikaru has been playing online blitz at the highest level for 20 years. The idea that you can nitpick a single session of blitz as proof of cheating is absolutely wild. In many of those games he had losing positions but only won by resiliency and using the clock and turning around by the last second.

[@nulltube2530]

Ai comment

[@boredash4020]

@@nulltube2530 lmao

[@steve5nash]

He's been the top of online chess since there were no money in online chess. Only within the past 3 years has there been money for online chess.

[@thebirdhasbeencharged]

20 years online blitz???

[@basqye9]

No one can sleep safely with Kramnik painstakingly pouring over each of our games.

[@Fluxion11]

Lol, kramnik has a 600 rated data analysis skill.

[@nohalfmeasures6]

😂😂😂

[@PorkinsRevenge]

@@Fluxion11 lol as a data analyst ... it's more like 500 ... lol his methods are not good.... his "proof" is not anything of the sort.

[@thernly]

poring

[@fburton8]

pouring doubt and scorn

[@cptmaj]

I cannot tell anyone how to feel but must be the most sincere compliment ever to say that someone plays so strong that they cannot be real. From a former world champ no less.

[@Electronite1978]

The most compelling reason is the video released by Hikaru where he is playing the games Vladimir referred to. In some games, Hikaru was basically lost but his opponents did not capitalize the positions. To put it shortly whenever Hikaru blundered his opponents simply blundered even more and therefore they lost.

[@dirtydeadasheville]

Chess speaks for _______.

[@marcweeks9178]

Kramnik analyzed my games and said that I needed to cheat more.

[@NotTheWheel]

Let me guess. Kramnik got flagged in a blitz game again.

[@Rastafaustian]

I don't believe Hikaru is a cheater. I do however suspect him of being a witch.

[@NJ-wb1cz]

I think Ian sarcastically meant, Kramnik is the hero "Gotham" (the cheating ridden chess world like the crime ridden city from Batman) deserves (meaning, a chaotic loose cannon) but not the one it needs (a normal rational and measured person who investigates cheating)

[@carlsanders7824]

That makes sense. The problem is that Ian's remarks were too obscure---given that the top youtube channel is a guy named Gotham.

[@NJ-wb1cz]

I dunno, I didn't even think about him, that was my immediate understanding. Gotham chess is also simply referencing batman

[@NJ-wb1cz]

@@carlsanders7824 "not the hero we need but the one we deserve" is also probably something from superhero comics

[@loganlasvegas]

Absolutely no one is more transparent than Hikaru. He streams hours every day, constantly banters during his games, strategizes 5 moves in advance, reads/responds to realtime chats, sometimes sings, eats and drinks…while stockfishing? Absurd. Not to mention the man’s integrity and respect for the game.

[@wandregisel6385]

is he especially known for his integrity? Not saying that he's cheating of course, I would in fact expect him to score 45.5/46 at least on a good day against that level of opposition. A few years ago, people would have attached a lot of respect to Kramnik's name as well. Funnily enough, he's throwing these insinuations even though he himself faced similar accusations in 2006...

[@NJ-wb1cz]

None of that means anything since cheating in question is just about essentially seeing the bar or getting a hint that you winning or losing at a few points. It's essentially about seeing a light once or feeling a phone vibrate once. I'm not saying he's cheating of course, but none of that precludes it or makes it less likely

[@Ruedigerkackgans12]

I agree that Hikaru is clean and just a phenomenonal blitz player, but I wouldn't exactly say he is known for his integrity. Ironically enough Hikaru used to regularly throw out unfounded cheating allegations against other GMs after losing games to them online. And this goes way back before he even was a streamer in the ICC days.

[@NJ-wb1cz]

@@Ruedigerkackgans12 that part is actually tangentially suspicious. It is extremely common for cheaters to be paranoid about others cheating because people most intuitively project their own thinking on others. This isn't even about chess, cheaters in marriages often behave irrationally paranoid and accuse their partners of cheating, before being found it as cheaters

[@Ruedigerkackgans12]

@@NJ-wb1cz I don't see it that way. I think it's just Hikaru's hyper competitive nature shining through, which if that is not channeled inwards gets channeled onto your opponent in form of toxicity. Even I, as someone who plays chess on a rather unimpressive level, have been salty enough before about a game in which I was beaten, that I have accused my opponent of cheating, even though I didn't actually believe that. Certainly not proud of it, but it's just the result of being overwhelmed by negative emotions after a bad loss that such toxicity can happen. And Hikaru certainly has been known to let his emotions get the better of him on a few occasions. There is no doubt in my mind that Hikaru is just an exceptional blitz player and 100% Clean

[@Janet_Airlines802]

Hikaru is so good because even if he’s losing, he can flag them. Hikaru doesn’t cheat, Kramnik has lost it.

[@bartbarian221]

Most posters here seem to only know Hikaru the streamer. But there are fossils among us that remember him before that. The Hikaru Nakamura touch-move incident at the 2016 Candidates Tournament raises pertinent questions about conduct in high-level chess. Nakamura's attempt to retroactively declare "J'adoube" after a disadvantageous king touch underscores how unsportsmanlike behavior can indicate a readiness to exploit ambiguities, especially in environments lacking direct oversight, like online chess. Aronian's response, including any ad-hominem remarks, reflects the impact that such incidents can have on even the most experienced players. In the realm of professional chess, where players dedicate years of their lives to mastering the game and competing at the highest levels, any perceived attempt to bend the rules can be seen not just as a breach of the game's integrity but also as a personal affront. This is especially true in situations where the stakes are as high as they are in the Candidates Tournament, a pivotal event in determining the challenger for the World Chess Championship. Nakamura's response, focusing on Aronian's personal remarks rather than the initial incident, could be seen as a deflection from the main issue. kzbin.info/www/bejne/pqa1g2lrirp-d9U Analyzing statistical data and game patterns can indeed help identify potential cheating in online play. However, this approach doesn't always provide a complete picture. For instance, a grandmaster skilled in the game's intricacies might discreetly use an engine for a few critical moves (2 or 3 can be more than enough), dramatically altering a game's course without raising statistical alarms, as stated here on the C-Squared. These brief interventions are challenging to detect because they can mimic legitimate grandmaster-level play. This subtlety in potential cheating methods makes the skepticism towards online results, even of top players like Nakamura, by some players understandable. He stated “no big deal” many times in direct opposition to sportsmanship regarding the incident, without which no game makes sense. Maxime blundering the rook against Fabiano recently displayed the opposite: accepting the blunder, admitting it immediately, and leaving no room for any such ambiguity. I’m not saying that we should over-interpret these incidents either though. Just that both sides are understandable, for who really knows? We must collectively strive for a chess environment where fair play is paramount, both over the board and online. This commitment to sportsmanship will uphold the game's integrity, ensuring that victories are earned through skill and strategy, not deceit.

[@Dagoldenshizzle]

From the get go, Ive felt that nepo was saying that we need Kramnik shedding light on this issue, but in this situation he is wrong. Hence the quote.

[@robdubent]

Prove he’s wrong

[@Zdekoms]

@@robdubent the necessity of proof always lies with the person who lays charges, dummy.

[@KevinHawkshaw]

I think this story is going to demonstrate the dangers of amateurs doing data analysis. The human mind is wired to find patterns, so much so that we see them even when they are not there and we can be easily fooled by randomness. Kramnik has data, and he has his intuition about what's possible and what isn't in chess (and a heaping helping of paranoia about cheating in chess), but that's not enough. 45.5/46 is an incredible streak against that quality of competition, but it's just that - a streak. Streaks happen. MLB hitters can hit .400 for half a season. NBA players can hit dozens of free throws in a row. When you start cherrypicking endpoints, you're going to find incredible streaks in any dataset. Are we really to believe that Hikaru Nakamura, elite grandmaster for going on two decades, probably multimillionaire at this point, is resorting to cheating online in meaningless games against random FMs and IMs? I think we collectively need to give our heads a shake before we drive off a cliff with Kramnik at the wheel. There's really no other way to put it, it was just an irresponsible move by him to just throw random numbers out there with no context. I'm not sure if the usual odds hold at that extreme end of the ELO scale, but as strong as those opponents were, Hikaru has generally been 200-400 points stronger than them over the past year. All else being equal that corresponds to a win probability of 76-91%, which means 35-42 would be Hikaru's expected score out of 46. This is napkin math of course, but you get the idea. It's not crazy at all that someone with that skill gap could outperform over the course of less than 50 games by that margin. The average chess player has streaks all the time where they outperform or underperform their true talent by 3-10 points over 50 games.

[@jasonzittel6802]

I’d also add there is a psychological factor of playing the same opponent multiple times when you are beating them regularly. The confidence has to slip which could lead to hesitation and that could definitely be exploited in a blitz format.

[@LunnarisLP]

I agree. Kramnik should go back to playing chess. I remember when Niemann was acused of cheating and everyone pretended to understand loads of things about statistics, yet it turned out they didnt even understand what the "accuracy" they kept talking about even meant.. People love to hear themselfs talk and feel smart..

[@dark40010]

Maybe someone could explain XG from football (soccer) to kramnik for an example of how one can overperform an average data expectation

[@blantant]

Very well said. 100 percent agree with this

[@michaelobrien5366]

"When you start cherrypicking endpoints," also starting points. He actually played over 50 games in that session

[@InvestorsHeaven]

If you think that Hikaru can't go 50-0 against IMs and FMs you're literally insane.

[@haggaisimon7748]

Poor Vlad 😢

[@Ebobster]

Exactly, poor pathetic Vlad.

[@CandiceJoergan]

Exactly.

[@smwg4187]

Source: trust me bro. Literally asking to be trusted more than Kramnik

[@matthis8888]

Hikaru does the same against GMs why do you Think he cant do it against IMs and FMs

[@evilrslade]

Even in a losing position, Hikaru still flags most people as his opponent has usually used more time. Its one thing to be up against him, another to actually play fast enough to get the win.

[@RMF49]

He’s elite with time management.

[@chriskehoe1394]

Hikaru would be insane to cheat, getting caught would be disastrous while the possible benefits are miniscule for him.

[@vsadrn]

Imagine being so good that a World Champion thinks you're cheating...

[@royprovins7037]

Hans knows the feeling

[@robdubent]

@@royprovins7037yup and now Hackamura does too

[@biochem6]

except Hans has actually cheated over 100 times @@royprovins7037

[@ChongFrisbee]

Gotham thing is most definitely a reference to a meme line on The Dark Knight movie and does not reference Gotham chess. Gotham is New York, which is the reason why Gotham chess chose the name

[@jb95467]

Your arguments are anecdotal, but still reasonable. Kramnik's main issue is that he cherry-picked. You can find times that Hikaru has played at a 3600 level and times that he played at a 3000 level - with enough samples, unlikely events happen, especially in a streaky game like chess.

[@simonbradbury5181]

Gotham is a village in Nottinghamshire, UK. It became famous as the people there came up with a scheme to avoid The Crown planning a Royal Highway through the village during Medieval times. Back in those days Insanity was seen as contagious, so the villagers conspired to all pretend to be completely insane so that the King's knights wouldn't want to enter the village. They even impisoned a cuckoo in a bush by fencing it in there (perhaps this is the origin of the cuckoo as a symbol of madness). Anyway they succeeded but also the village became synonymous with insanity. Reminded of the foolish ingenuity of Gotham's residents, Washington Irving gave the name "Gotham" to New York City in his Salmagundi Papers (1807).

[@chrisrollins8322]

I think one of the things that Ian is upset about is the headphones while playing. Eric (chessbrah) said you aren't allowed to use headphones and yet Hikaru still is. That doesn't mean he's cheating with an engine though.

[@Frog-2001]

if you are talking about world speedchess championship, Alireza Firouzja was also using airpods during the tournament. But Ian didnt talk about Alireza, only Hikaru

[@B-fq7ff]

Ian’s tweet about “the hero Gotham deserves” is a quote from The Dark Knight

[@B-fq7ff]

My guess about what Nepo meant by the quote is that the chess community “deserves” someone like Kramnik who will expose any player with suspicious activity, regardless of their status/reputation, with no fear of public blowback, but that the chess community doesn’t “need” this kind of drama right now. Not necessarily a jab at hikaru, in fact I read the opposite way, as sort of a jab at kramnik for being unscrupulous with his cheating accusations.

[@Sunsetjanice]

@@B-fq7ff good point

[@johncreekpaum4998]

​@B-fq7ff Yeah, wasn't the movie quote referring to Harvey Dent being the hero Gotham deserves but not what it needs, because Gotham needed Batman but Batman couldn't be the hero? Sounds like Ian was calling Kramnik Two-Face.....

[@seinundzeiten]

@@B-fq7ff yes Ian's comments are too nerdy for most people

[@danieljunior7821]

Kramnik doing it this way is definitely with the intention of causing a mess !!!

[@synchronium24]

Yes. Much like Magnus' antics prior to officially publicizing his suspicion of Hans.

[@scottekoontz]

@@synchronium24 Plus Hikaru piling on with the "well that's 'sus'" comments.

[@robdubent]

@@scottekoontzyup and suddenly they’re all gasping at Hackamura being accused lol

[@lucasfreitas8668]

Yes, the accusation itself doesn t have any sense thats looks like a hit piece. Embarissing situation for kramnik and ian.

[@synchronium24]

@@scottekoontz Oh, very much agreed. Hikaru is getting a taste of his own medicine from how unscrupulously he treated the Hans allegations.

[@andrewclastic2835]

Sep 13, 2023 Vladimir Kramnik is a former World Champion and a respected member of the chess community!! We need to take his thoughts and research on cheating seriously!! Nov 21, 2023 Vladimir Kramnik is an old, senile relic of a bygone era. He's a man who falls asleep afraid of cheaters under his bed, and awakens from the nightmare of losing to a 600 elo opponent. Truly a sad tale of what can happen when our mental faculties escape us.

[@neerajnongmaithem392]

this happens when people start walking the route of paranoia, the fact that he didn't even take any time to analyse the games before accusing a player of Hikaru's calibre is upsetting. he has done his reputation more harm then good by stating these half baked accusations.

[@scottekoontz]

Interesting how Hikaru suddenly realizes that no-fact guesses from GMs are worthless, but of course only when fingers are pointed at him.

[@robdubent]

BOOM the triple digit elos are scrambling once again! I heard he uses a vibrating ‘plug!’

[@Punklorde_Mentality]

If Hikaru cheated, I'll stop playing and watching chess forever.

[@joshpointoh]

Look at Naka's OTB performance, look at his Speed Chess Championship performance on cameras...ridiculous

[@Musix4me-Clarinet]

Hikaru also streams most of his online play. *Was that series streamed?* He talks you through everything he sees and marks up the board faster than you could possibly transfer between reading a computer and inputting the information. He has easily established himself as one of the strongest players ever...particularly in the online format while often having a second camera on him. Kramnik is being absurd.

[@wolfgangkuechle9085]

See above, Hikaru published a youtube video with all the games. The only type of cheating you may derive from these games is opponents losing intentionally to Hikaru. Not very likely ...

[@jimlang7461]

This is ridiculous. Hikaru doesn't need to cheat.

[@Fuzzyhead5060]

Exactly. What is so surprising about a player 300 ELO higher beating the worse players 45.5 times out of 46? Hikaru plays on another level.

[@fachriranu1041]

​@@Fuzzyhead5060FM and IM so more like 400-500 ELO rating

[@warnaoh]

I dont Naka cheated but your argument doesnt prove shit. It's like saying X super star can have sex with any girl why would he r*pe anyone ? The world isnt that simple.

[@JM-tj5qm]

That's the worse argument ever, a lot of cheaters are really good at what they do.

[@menohomo7716]

This is ridiculous, Jeff Bezos doesn't need to fraud.

[@carlkligerman1981]

Lol Ian is quoting the Batman movie The Dark Knight. Which, if interpreted correctly, means that while Ian like many in the chess world thinks cheating is a problem, and that Kramnik is somewhat of an heroic figure to openly discuss it, in this case Kramnik is mistaken!

[@carlkligerman1981]

Guess this settles the ‘good at chess’ equals an high IQ debate!

[@JohnVC]

Hikaru streams the most, explains every move, has the most to lose if he is caught, and beats everyone's senseless online and over the board. That's the hill Kramnik wants to die on?

[@jasongillis1336]

Apparently! Imagine being a former WC, and being so completely clueless 😂

[@jaketaylor4123]

Pretty sure the gameplan is: 1. Throw out a ridiculous accusation with no real statistics to back it up. 2. Veil it in a broader interest of “despising cheaters” while it is really just a targeted attack. 3. When hordes of people come to defend said target, only respond to/highlight the small percentage that are the most angry/vitriolic 4. Claim target specifically encouraged those vitriolic individuals to attack Kramnik in order to cover up target’s cheating.

[@Flashyfinancier]

"Ok well I guess Im just gonna take that as a compliment. Thx Big Vlad !! ✌" - Hikaru

[@yogi2543]

I was wondering why Hikaru posted a 4 hour video on his Cheating accusation video. He posted the receipts for these games. Thank you for the tldr, Chris

[@pilo5000]

I don't like Hikaru much tbh, but he's definitely not a cheater. Kramnik should stop doing "he's own research" and drop the tin foil hat at this point.

[@jgone4856]

I'm glad respected people in the chess world, like Magnus and Cristian here, are being outspoken about their opinions on Hikaru and making clear statements regarding this cheating accusation/implication.

[@milesreynolds4943]

They were not clean games, just a GM farming IM/FM's... nothing to see here

[@MIX_Cast]

Kramnik is a very good example how statistics can be biasedly interpreted. He's trying to replace his ineptness to play online chess accusing the others that can do it for a living.

[@HometownChessHero]

the saddest takeaway from this video is that hikaru isn't following christian back 😞

[@stekikun6854]

It's crazy how few people understand Ian's post. It's a reference to Harvey Dent in the Dark Knight, not to Levy. I think he's basically saying that Kramnik's crusade against cheating is a fair one, but that he's being overzealous and losing judgment. In other words, he's showing respect to Kramnik as a whole but thinks in that particular case, the accusation is bonkers.

[@John-sb1yz]

Ian's response doesn't make any sense. He's trying to be clever and cryptic, but it doesn't work.

[@letsmakeit110]

You know after seeing the way Hikaru handled the cheating accusations leveled at Hans Niemann I say what goes around comes around. Hope you can prove your innocence Hiki

[@neerajnongmaithem392]

he does not prove anything though, no one at the top of chess believe that hikaru has ever cheated, its always the paranoid ruski such as kramk and nepo who would think otherwise.

[@scottekoontz]

@@neerajnongmaithem392 "at the top of chess" So now the rules are starting to gel. You have to be a certain Elo and a certain ranking to be able to tell if someone is cheating with no other proof. GM says player A cheated, Hikaru plays along. GM says player B cheated, Hikaru is aghast.

[@robdubent]

@@neerajnongmaithem392oh how convenient 🤡🤦‍♂️👊

[@robdubent]

Sweet sweet Karma. Tired of the mouthy triple digit elo Hackamura fans always bumping their gums over pure speculation I wonder how that medicine tastes… I’m thinking a bit bitter….

[@KevinHawkshaw]

i'd say he doesn't have to prove anything. Kramnik showed one streak of standout performance over less than 50 meaningless online blitz games. That's not evidence. Hans did not have to prove his innocence either. The only difference is that his PR battle was much tougher because he was a known cheater online and obviously doesn't get the benefit of the doubt.

[@JcTx]

I have decided to completely revise my post to make it more complete. Kramnik said that 45.5/46 result is very unlikely. Let's consider a player A rated 3300 and a player B rated 2950, which seem to be, more or less, the ratings considered by Kramnik. All my calculations are based on information I took from Wikipedia. The Elo rating system is in used many sports. In sports where there are no draws a formula is: Probability of A winning = 1/(1+10^(-(RA-RB)/s)). For chess s=400. The 10 comes from using a logistic curve with base 10 for the expected score of player A. The value for s (the 400) come from USCF suggesting that a 200 difference points in rating should represent about 75% chance of player A winning, 25% chance of loosing and 0% of drawing. Note that the probability of drawing is not specified by the Elo system. Instead a draw is considered half a win and half a loss. If no draws are allowed and the Elo difference is 200 points then P(A winning) = 1/(1+10^(-200/400) = 0.76. If the Elo difference is 400 then P(A winning) = 0.91. Now obviously there are a lot of draws in chess. Considering draws the formula is: P(A wining) = (10^(r/400))/(10^(-r/400)+k+10^(r/400)), where r=(RA-RB). It seems that a value of 2 for k is reasonable. The higher is k the higher will be the draw probability. With RA-RB = 3300-2950 = 350, s=400 and k=2: P(A winning a game) = (10^(350/400))/(10^(-350/400)+2+10^(350/400)) = 0.78. Using the same formula gives the probability of player B wining is about 0.02. Consequently the probability of a draw is about 0.2. So the probability of the 45.5/46 score is 0.78^45*0.2*46 = 0.00012 or 0.012%. To put things into perspective. What is the probability of player A winning 0.78*46 = 36? The P(A winning exactly 36 games and not winning 10) = 0.14 (14%) which is also quite low. That is why it can make more sense to calculate the probability of A winning more than a specified number of games. To simplify let's just consider two scenarios Player A wins and Player A does not win (either draws or loses). In this conditions, the probability of player A wining is 0.78 and the probability of Player A not wining is 1-0.78=0.22. P(A winning 40 games or more) = 0.09 (9%) P(A winning 41 games or more) = 0.04 (4%) P(A winning 42 games or more) = 0.02 (2%) P(A winning 43 games or more) = 0.005 (0.5%) P(A winning 44 games or more) = 0.001 (0.1%) P(A winning 45 games or more) = 0.0002 (0.02%) P(A winning 46) = 0.0001 (0.01%) Now let's say that the true probability of player A winning is 0.9 or 90% then: P(A winning 43 games or more) = 0.31 (31%) P(A winning 44 games or more) = 0.15 (15%) P(A winning 45 games or more) = 0.05 (5%) P(A winning 46 games) = 0.01 (1%) If player A plays not 46 but 30000 games against player B, how many runs of 45.5/46 is he expected to have? This is a very tricky question and to answer it I did 1000 simulation of 30000 games and the average result is 3.5. My simulation may not be correct, I didn't verify everything, so take this result with a pinch of salt. But the results of my simulation are correct it means that is very likely that the 45.5/46 result actually happens for a player who has played so many games (30000). Finally note that, obviously the likelihood of the 45.5/46 result depends on the probability of player A winning. Also one needs to be careful when considering point probabilities because it tends to be low and it is zero for a continuous distribution. In this example remember that the P(A winning 36 games and not loosing 10) = 14%, and this is the most likely result out of 46 games using the 0.78/0.22 probabilities. My chess coach who is a strong GM and has a rating of about 2950 played 8 games with Hikaru recently and their result was 6-2. Using P(Hikaru winning a game) = 0.78 we have the following probabilities: 8 - 0 13.70% 7 - 1 30.92% 6 - 2 30.52% 5 - 3 17.22% 4 - 4 6.07% 3 - 5 1.37% 2 - 6 0.19% 1 - 7 0.02% 0 - 8 0.001% So the outcome of their match (between Hikaru and my coach) is very reasonable.

[@elonif4125]

I‘m waiting for Kramnik to accuse himself of cheating.

[@jgreen802]

It's almost impossible to know if someone is cheating online if they're being smart about it. The best evidence we can get IMO, is if they play drastically better online than they do otb which obviously isnt the case with Hikaru.

[@andrejbogdanov2816]

Actuallu he is and has been for 15 years. Still zero world championships in Blitz chess. The reason though is certainly not cheating, but just playing a lot more online chess from an early age, than any other top player did at that time.

[@jgreen802]

@@andrejbogdanov2816 He's a little better online but it's not by much. Even if he's never won the blitz WC, he always finishes close to the top.

[@andrejbogdanov2816]

@@jgreen802 not sure about his exact finishes, but two 2nds and two 3rd places isn't all that impressive tbh. Compared to how he has dominated most of online chess for 15 years except when it comes to Magnus.

[@amarthurfurniture860]

I listened to your podcast with Kramik, and he honestly comes off paranoid and a tad unhinged. I felt like you guys were doing your best to humor him and show respect, but it was pretty obvious that you were both finding his story somewhat outrageous.

[@lordtouchme77]

Hikaru legit posted proof of all his match on youtube and twitch. Some 🤡: oh this proves nothing, he is cheating for sure.

[@hatestorm16]

Kramnik, who literally became world champion by going to the toilet and coming back with the best engine move like 5 times in a row acusing Hikaru of cheating. Good luck with that! Whatever you think of Hikaru, the guy is insane at chess, especially faster formats.

[@x0cx102]

haha what a burn

[@strong8705]

Top argument for me (4.): while streaming, with seconds per move or less, is cheating practically even possible?

[@Socialdogma]

5. He was also eating a huge bowl of spaghetti.

[@yogi2543]

I bet even Gary Kasparov, at his current age of 69, could shut out these players for 45 games

[@sylvainsanesti3499]

Lol, no way

[@gunner4life568]

Kasparov is 60 years old

[@sebastiancruxian6518]

Clasical or rapid yes, Blitz I doubt it.

[@andrejbogdanov2816]

Blitz yes - but otb. Definitely not online.

[@pugsondrugs6556]

I just logged a 50% accuracy game with black, hopping I don’t get exposed by Kramnik on social media.

[@robdubent]

He doesn’t care about triple digits with a big mouth

[@Trizzer89]

Kramnik is a joke. But at least he can use this obviously clean accomplishment as a benchmark

[@smwg4187]

I mean, this video makes a great point that Nakamura could be cheating. In all those blitz world championships OTB, Naka performed at 2900, which is roughly his blitz rating. And in Kramnik's example, he performed at 3600, which is literally Stockfish's rating 😂

[@billmorrigan386]

Stockfish engines are much stronger than that. For example, in chess puzzles some folks amassed 10,000 Elo +. They don't speak the truth about the real strength of engines. They push bs. It's a hush-hush biz. Apart from that, you made an excellent point and it must be "interesting" to all honest players. One little clarification. In blitz games engines, even old ones like Stockfish 6, will have ridiculous ratings vs humans. I mean, say, Stockfish 6 vs humans will definitely amass far above 4000+ in blitz. Being hush-hush about the real strength of engines is the part of the problem concerning cheating. All top players should know this. They are part of the problem for keeping silence or burying the head in the sand and refusing to talk about the strength of the engines and how it will stack up against humans. They are happy to dismiss it and laugh it off with cheater's responses (engine's ratings are not comparable to humans, i.e. you cannot and even should not compare them).

[@FenShen-us9tv]

@smwg4187 Because he's playing FMs and IMs instead of the top ten chess players

[@smwg4187]

@@FenShen-us9tv Those FMs and IMs are still rated 2900 on chesscom blitz... Clearly they are online blitz specialists themselves. I'm sure Kramnik is pointing this out because it's extraordinary.

[@FenShen-us9tv]

@@smwg4187 Online ratings are inflated and Hikaru is still the much stronger player even if they focus on playing blitz. The difference between a GM and SuperGM is enormous and they aren't even GMs.

[@billmorrigan386]

@@smwg4187 Yes, they are. That's correct. Perhaps some guys are afraid to beat Hikaru lest they get banned. So they underperformed terribly below their 2950 helping this streak to occur. Judging by their poor play (=ACPL - average centipawn loss which is not even available for the public --how convenient for the cheaters). But I would have banned them all anyway including Hikaru. Just kidding. Not really kidding. The cheating problem is severe. Kramnik's points are serious. All pro players know this but keep silence in public. Very few top players voiced the problem for the public but it remains mostly unavailable to the public and swept under the rug. Kramnik voice is louder than that of very few top GMs who dared to speak but one Kramnik is not gonna solve anything. He is an inactive player and one swallow doesn't make summer. Caruana and others might help but I don't think they are ready to pitch in and go all in. It's simpler to tiptoe around it. Besides a bigger problem has arrived: massive cheating OTB, micro-headphones, cheating in OTB blitz games, spikes in rating deflation (due to cheating). The situation with Kazakh and Uzbek players and some other countries is especially outrageous. Bibisara got scot-free way back (referring to her cheating litigation a few years back) and now it's all quadrupled and it is snowballing.... And of course, Caesar's wife is above suspicion. It's laughable. Everyone's rating goes down. His is going up. I mean OTB FIDE. Very funny, ha-ha. He himself laughs. The sheeple (public) swallow all the mainstream slop hook, line and sinker.

[@iceyroo]

Well I mean it makes sense when you think about it, Naka didn’t know pawns captured diagonally 😂

[@vikramkrishnan6414]

Let us start with basic probability: let p be the probability of success, let n be the number of attempts. The probability of getting k successes can be modelled as a Binomial dbn. Based on average ELO diff we can compute p. Then it is a basic calculation to compute probability of Hikaru's win rate. Someone did the calculation. They got over 99%. There is no foul play. Kramnik doesn't understand maths.

[@broken1394]

Snakes coming out of Kramnik's mouth. Pathetic.

[@timg6125]

Just to clarify what Ian wrote, that is a quote from the Batman movie The Dark Knight, so I don't think it's related to Levy Rosman. What it means or is meant to insinuate is hard to decipher. It's just vague enough that it can't really be interpreted as a direct accusation. However, what Kramnick said does seem to be an insinuation.

[@lollycopter]

Another factor that occurs when facing lower rated players is that Nakamura could easily be their kryptonite and understand their style of play and how to defeat it game after game after game. This can apply even to players of similar ratings. We should also remember that Chesscom doesn't use Elo, but Glicko or thereabouts.

[@petsquirrelable]

Kramnik presenting statistics without understanding statistics. He says its a 3600 rated performance while forgetting online ratings are inflated like 500 to 1000 points. Some of those players have a ~2950 online blitz rating but only ~2000 fide blitz rating over the board lol. If anything it’s evidence those guys Hikaru was playing cheat online but chose not to do it against hikaru for fear of being caught and thus they lost a bunch of games in a row cuz they are actually rated 2000 in blitz over the board and hikaru is a legit 2800 blitz over the board player. If you asked Kramnik if he could he beat a 2000 rated player 45 times in a row in blitz when he was world champ he would most certainly say yes. Be careful with statistics…especially if you think you’re smart.

[@too-many-phils]

very neutral and professional. Thanks C #1

[@kisaragireion]

Must be the fabled monitor mounted on Hikaru’s ceiling. He always looks up when thinking😂

[@yitwailu2]

Cristian, thanks for the thoughtful debunking of Kramnik’s accusation. Making the accusation without mentioning that the games were against 2 IMs and a FM is intellectual dishonesty of the lowest order.

[@Socrates...]

Kramnik is jealous

[@Katatopianos]

Aside from all the farming, Kramnik has not realized a very significant point. Ever since Covid Hikaru has been playing chess online for hours almost every single day. If you’ve followed Hikaru’s streams you’ll have noticed how much better he was getting. Playing blitz every day for hours on end played a major part in Hikaru’s resurgence. I don’t understand how those like Kramnik or Nepo don’t understand this.

[@ynasri10]

At this point, i think we are ready to see Kramnik accusing Carlsen of cheating 🤣

[@neerajnongmaithem392]

I am deeply saddend that no one has run the probability of hikaru having such a streak in all the blitz games played by him and that Vlad is out of his mind. This is such an easy probability question and yet people like kramnik got no idea what they are talking about. This is why people who don't know basic maths should stay away from it. Here we go I will make it easier for you gu to understand this. This is exactly like the question. If a fair coin is tossed 1000 times, what's the probability of you having a series of 10 heads consecutively No.of outcome = 1000 Heads series = 10 Probability of each outcome = 50% (38.5% probability of having a series of 10 consecutive heads in 1000 tries) In hikaru's problem No of outcomes = 33,468 Win series = 45 Probability of win/outcome = 89% (100% certainty of such a streak happening) Lets get more detailed Since kramknik specifically talked about 45.5/46, it means he has considered for no lose streak instead of exclusive win streak, this gives us the chance of finding hikaru's exact probability of having a 45.5 score(no loss) No of outcomes = 33,468 No loss(win + draw)% = 87%(hikaru's actual no loss rate) No loss streak = 45.5 (Hikaru has a probability of 99.976% of having a streak of 45.5 in the total amounts of games he has played) Yea it's so unlikely according to cramnik that hikaru can't achieve a 99.976% chance event out of 33,468 games he has played. It will be frightening if he does not achieve such streak from time to time. Anyone who has studied just bit of risk management knows this formula. Would not expect it from kram tho. Guys I give you full freedom to paste this copy pasta everywhere so people can know about basic school level probability.

[@GM4ThePeople]

Hikaru's l'il bum has _never_ been cleared tbf, except for that one time out front w Eric Hansen, & that was a shoddy single-finger job in the Pre-Niemann Era.

[@Funnygooner10]

Kramnik just comes across as a sore loser and conspiracy theorist at this point

[@danielanskaitis5961]

How many dirty flags did Hikaru grind from drawn or lost positions? Not many can pre-move like Hickaroo.

[@grammarnazi9440]

Hikaru does cheat . He has stockfish on his ceiling.

[@connormcneely7103]

the quote from Ian Nepo "Not the hero Gotham deserves but the one Gotham needs" Has nothing to do with GothamChess. It's literally a famous quote insinuating that Kramnik is like Batman and a hero that nobody is going to respect. Ian seems to think that Kramnik is correct in what he's saying and that Hikaru might actually be cheating. That's just according to the tweet at the beginning of the video.

[@grammarnazi9440]

Here starts krmanik’s Bobby Fischer’s arc.

[@DKarkarov]

The reference is a movie quote from "The Dark Knight", has nothing to do with Gotham Chess. That said there is one great reason Hikaru hasn't cheated.... his reputation and financial success are far too big a deal to risk just to win a couple meaningless online games. He has dramatically far more to lose by cheating and getting caught than he is likely to win by cheating and getting away with it.

[@joachimoberhammer3020]

Here the statistical analysis of a computer simulation: assuming Nakamura plays 5000 blitz games a year (I have no better estimation for it) with players being 350 ELO lower rated than him, the probability for having a 46-games winning streak within these 5000 games is 19.17% (with a +-0.37% 1-sigma confidence interval of the simulation). Assuming he plays only 2000 blitz games a year (which I think is a low number), the probability for a 46-games winning streak is still 8.11% (+-0.28% 1-sigma CI). For a 3-year period, assuming 5000 games per year, the probability of a 46-games winning streak to occur within these 3 years is 47.33% (+-0.46% 1-sigma CI). So it's close to 50%, like flipping a coin, for a 3-years period. (note this analysis was even done for a score of 46/46, not 45.5/46, but that's no big difference; the analysis also assumes independent games, whereas in reality the psychological factor of a winning/loosing streak can be assumed to be on the winner's side, i.e. the probabilities for winning streaks against a small number of changing opponents, as for the streak under discussion, can assumed to be even higher). It is a pity, as Kramnik's initial analysis of cheating at titled-Tuesdays was very interesting (and important!!!!), but accusing Nakamura of cheating based on an observed 45.5/46-streak is ridiculous from a statistical point of view, as it actually is unlikely that Nakamura does not have this kind of winning streak every couple of years. I wonder why the 500-ELO mathematician Kramnik did not check this claim with his mathematician friends before posting. Unfortunately, all his previous analysis also looses credibility now.

[@titobayaw555]

kramnik is just a grumpy old man, a male version of karen

[@sb-qx6ew]

It reads to me as if Ian is being sarcastic, with the batman quote deliberately backwards

[@3rdEarlRussell]

That Nepo tweet is a quote from the ending of The Dark Knight. It's also been used in memes for many years so surprised some people don't recognize it. Just means Kramnik is like Batman if the quote is used correctly (the grammar makes Kramnik the referent). So.Nepo does seem to be endorsing Kramnik. It's ridiculous though because there's only one person in chess history who has gotten the better of Hikaru at speed chess in most of their games and that's Magnus. No one else even comes close. Hikaru has been a speed chess demon for roughly 20 years. I find it absurd that people see any need to defend Hikaru instead of outright dismissing Kramnik's statistically illiterate argument. First, the accusation makes no sense and is both highly implausible for someone of Hikaru's caliber and second it's based on an elementary statistical fallacy, the failure to understand statistical distributions have outliers. Second, the accuser always must have the burden of the proof or anyone could be suspected on a whim of anything. Commentators who are engaging this nonsense for clicks instead of dismissing it outright are being massively irresponsible and do not understand what the burden of proof means. If Kramnik has more serious arguments it's for him to put them forward.

[@SchmillyTV]

It's a batman reference, not a Gotham chess reference. Ian is saying that the chess world needs people like Kramnik, but not right now. In reference to Hikaru. Ian thinks Kramnik is off the mark.

[@scottr8360]

Kramnik rides a donkey to attack the windmills! Ala Don Quixiote.

[@grammarnazi9440]

Magnus’s performance in those championships is more believable of cheating😂

[@tob564]

Ian definitely referenced Batman, not Levy Rozman.

[@ChavaM88]

I'm loving the consistency! Keep the videos coming!

[@kimstahlberg6556]

This/these incidents should and be analyzed by sampling binomial (or other suitable) distribution and using probabilities rather than just eyeballing single streaks and statistics.

[@imeprezime1285]

No, Quickamura doesn't cheat. He's a specialist in short time control chess-especially online where he mastered all sort of tricks possible (including flagging). Kramnik must be jaleous. It's not shame losing to Quickamura in speed chess by big margin. BUT, it's shame for a super GM to lose 4 classical games in a row to him 🙂

[@GMYasserSeirawan]

I don't think Hikaru cheated either. The show itself? Very suspicious! Smile. Yasser

[@patheticpear2897]

Referencing Hikaru's stats in which he may or may not be cheating can't be used as evidence that he is not cheating.

[@robertgelblum5154]

Thanks for your analysis of this cheating allegation against Hikaru. Your arguments and evidence are compelling. And I don't believe for a second that Hikaru is cheating!

[@bharlesCabbage]

Breaking news, Kramnik lives under a rock.

[@David-by8ev]

What Kramnik is doing here, is harming chess as much as cheating, IMHO. Just randomly accusing players of cheating and spreading rumors and stuff. But mainly he is harming himself (not to mention the level of embarrassment). Can't take this guy seriously anymore AT ALL. But everybody knows accusations stick in the back of the head... So it is really despicable, especially on a poor (read: ridiculous) basis that Kramnik's accusations are based on.

[@pelida77]

I may not be a mathematician wizard but I have a cell phone and a calculator app: go Vlad! Down with the cheaters!

[@greatpretender83]

He played a GM. Hikaru told that himself but it was only 1 game.

[@traviebohave]

I think Ian’s tweet was 1. Just a Batman quote and 2. Opaque in what he meant. But I believe his meaning was “Kramnik is doing good work [re: cheating] but picking on Hikaru for it was a mistake”. Ian is one of the worst communicators on the internet so often whatever he’s trying to say is lost in tangential movie quotes. And then Hikaru just had a knee jerk reaction at Ian’s tweet.

[@jire9831]

You guys are spoiling us with these back to back pods.

[@jaekn]

He mentions Gotham, because he is referencing Batman, not Gotham Chess

[@ladeedaa]

I agree 100% Im thinking Kramnik is just a tad bit paranoid 😂