From Madden Tournaments to $100k FanDuel Parlays - JFar

[@GLZAEA]

The problem with JFar/BTB/most similar discords is that their hits are few and far in between. They tell you to tail 3 of them and they post 30+ plays a day all told. They can go through insane dry spells. I’m talking weeks without hitting anything worthwhile. Then Joke will throw $750 or some ridiculous number on a +1300 JPWVOH first basket play and will act like the whole cord ate. Reality is there’s a lot of turnover in these discords. People come in during a dry spell and they’re not tailing every play because the trust just isn’t there. You cannot just keep expecting to play that type of volume (even while minding their unit size) and continue to whiff at that rate. Also - people aren’t cappers. They tail them for a reason. They have lives, they don’t have the time to tail every play. jFar & Joke don’t think practically about this. Where EV servers like SWT & Datawise have BTB and the like beat is how they exploit edges. How they leverage data & tools. JFar uses historical data & trends whereas these groups aren’t going to go off a whim. They’re going to adhere to the EV tools (like datagolf) & correlation. They’re going to attack every angle. Their success rate is higher for this reason. You can’t live off that pitcher SGP hit forever. It was great but it’s not indicative of success for your customer base. LOOK at the testimonials beyond the ones that Joke retweets. Look at the people who said they tailed everything except that play that day (or most days) and they missed out. BTB doesn’t really speak on that, they ban anyone in their discord for conveying their feelings on the matter. What they’re really eating off of is WHOP fees. Conversely, EV “cappers” by and large only need WHOP because they get limited by every book/DFS site. They’re constantly transparent about their wins/losses. They share their Pikkit. Have we EVER seen a Pikkit from Jfar/Joke? No, and we never will.

[@TerpyToaster]

Couldn’t have said it any better. Been a member for months and this is very very true. They put on a facade like most cappers unfortunately do. Not to knock these guys but between jfar and joke they are down around -40 u in NBA so far this season.

[@RadiantCharbs]

I've been a member for a couple months and most of what you're saying is true - especially about the volume and dry spells. It's a lot to keep up with if you have a life and don't just sit on your phone all day waiting for picks. As a user below me mentioned though, Joke and Jfar are by no means the only guys on that discord making returns. ROI Guy, Snowman, and Camden post nowhere near the amount of picks as Jfar and Joke and are greatly profitable. You just have to understand and gauge your own risk tolerance and bet at your desired pace.

[@GLZAEA]

⁠​⁠@@RadiantCharbsRight but that doesn’t omit the disingenuous nature of their marketing. It doesn’t change the fact that they outright muffle/ban anyone who does convey frustration in the discord. It doesn’t change the fact that on a day to day, week to week, month to month basis there are more consistent discords out there. Many of them being EV discords. I’m by no means an EV adherent but when you look at the folks JFar came for, many of them have a better track record than him. DGN, SVT, Datawise to name a few are all discords you see far more transparency. I get it - Jfar’s style of betting isn’t for everyone. At the same time don’t act like your whole cord ate when you hit. That’s my overarching point. It’s phony & disingenuous.

[@TerpyToaster]

Jfar just hit an insane +50k odds play so we are well over the green now for NBA

[@jferg8956]

Didn’t know you played comp madden Jfar, you the goat man

[@CeeMyFeet7]

That 100k parlay was amazing ! He made me so much money that day 😃

[@LemonyBrisket]

Preach!!!!! I always say in sports period 1+1 does not equal 2. Love the pod!

[@coolthugerjackson4513]

what does bottom to top and top to bottom means exactly anyone???

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Top down is basically arbitrage - you see what prices the different sportsbooks have and take outliers (oversimplifying massively here) Bottom-up is also known as "originating". That means creating your own number based on a model you made &/or your domain knowledge of the sport without consulting the sportsbooks first Great question!

[@StarScope-c6t]

@@TheRiskTakersPodcast buddy can you reply please I can do same thumbnail or more better on fiver

[@ehigieEseosa]

@@TheRiskTakersPodcast so just to be a little too down is basically like shopping lines for the best on a play you like and bottom up is you already know the line you want but looking for best value? Or is that still oversimplified.

[@SportsArbitrage]

Agree that just betting pure EV plays isn’t the most optimal way to bet…in that there’s a LOT of variance with taking this approach. I do wish you guys would dive a bit more into arbitrage & exploiting signup/deposit bonuses, as this is where there’s ACTUALLY a huge edge compared to traditional handicapping. Feel like that stuff gets mixed in with the “EV boys” and there is seriously so much crazy low-risk $$$ to be made here.

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Totally agree! I try and talk a lot about bonus & arbitrage play especially when giving advice to people just starting

[@SportsArbitrage]

@@TheRiskTakersPodcast That's great to hear man! New to your podcast, love that you focus on this too

[@Kerwood334]

there is a disconnect between these new bettors vs the old....a bet can only be + or - EV. You only want +EV bets. Thing is the new definition of + EV is just line shopping. There is nothing really +EV about it. Line shopping is great betting strategy but getting a better line doesnt make a bet +EV. You need projections, simulations and then compare win rate vs implied and then from there you can calculate the EV of a bet. Sometimes the highest EV betsare also have low win rates. The trick is to make bets that simulate to win at least 55% of the time that have edge over the implied and +EV %. Right now you have to do it on your own like me or pay for a place like Unabated that was projections and simulations of bets

[@noahruston5731]

How would you reccomend getting into sports betting when I mean your bankroll is like only 100 bucks etc. can’t play with big money like the pros but want to have a second income

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Promos! I have a video that talks about growing a bankroll from scratch. kzbin.info/www/bejne/bpTbqoikq9RqaZo

[@BitcoinMotorist]

Awesome interview! May I make a suggestion? When the guest is giving valubale information, there is no need for the host to say "right" every couple of seconds. It's ok to stay silent and let the guest talk when he is in the middle of explaining something really cool. It's distracting when I am trying to pay attention to a complex point and the host is talking over it every couple of seconds. Keep up the great work, love this channel

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Ty for feedback - tried to apply in my latest interview

[@BitcoinMotorist]

@TheRiskTakersPodcast Yes! Thank you. I was listening this morning and I noticed. Now I am thinking about going to that conference at the Circa

[@levikeller7916]

5:39 he knew bc he was moving the lines then hammering the other side for 5x

[@youngnfly6998]

GP it’s Time to get JFar back on for an update and some more insight!

[@TheBenchPressBoss]

best podcast so far!

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Wow, thanks!

[@SurfaSurfa-cd2qj]

Bro what's ur discord i need your help badly I'll even pay you ​@TheRiskTakersPodcast

[@SurfaSurfa-cd2qj]

​@@TheRiskTakersPodcastBro what's the name or link for the discord

[@mains4553]

Great podcast guys!!! 🫡🤝

[@roccobama9902]

Damn now I gotta leave OddsJam 😭😭😭😭

[@Kerwood334]

binomial and normal distributions are the words you were looking for

[@StarScope-c6t]

I subscribed💯 can i talk you personally oddscam slender!

[@conordavidson8980]

YES! MORE ODDSJAM SLANDER!

[@tbtb7084]

Jfar is the goat

[@StarScope-c6t]

❤

[@1230QAZWSX]

So let me get this right. Your guest has 88k followers. Probably thousands in his discord and gives out all his plays there. It shouldnt take a genius to know how fast the accounts that make his bets will get flagged if he has an actual long term edge on the sportsbooks. ESPECIALLY if you are buying lines at the non market makers. Why does your guest feel the need to sell bets (which is first of all immoral for the pricing and timing relation of successful betting) if he has an actual edge at the non market makers? He's literally ruining his own edge by definition. Or is he just a marketer?

[@LemonyBrisket]

Hey ya seem kinda well versed in the culture . I have a question if ya can answer it ? if not.no worries. I was wondering is it only people betting bad lines that are getting limited or do winners get limited period? I'm just wondering cause I don't bet bad lines i truly just break down live basketball and pre match women's tennis and I feel like I could be a long term winner one day. Will I get limited ? Or is it only people betting Bad lines CLVing and arbers that get limited?

[@1230QAZWSX]

​@@LemonyBrisket So first off I think you have a misconception about long -term winning sports betting in general. I know top down has become popular because of sites like oddsjam and unabated etc etc, but top down and bottom up (originating or handicapping) betting have a few things in common and one of them is trying to beat the CLV. Also both are hoping to make +EV plays which on average will be determined by the CLV. And that's because markets tend towards efficiency. ESPECIALLY if the market you are betting into is liquid. Of course there is a lot more to it than that. Also I don't bet what you do, so I'm not aware of those markets. Also I don't know your data on your own bets. Now when it comes down to being limited, I'll assume you're talking draft kings, fan duel and the other weak books. You will most likely get limited to the point of not being able to bet anymore no matter what strategy you use eventually. I've talked with traders at some of these weaker books and you simply wouldn't believe how easy it is to flag your account and get limited. Could take a minimum of 1-3 bets on some occasions. There is absolutely a skill to keeping your account healthy and kind of hide that you are a sharp. But of course you'll want to maximize your profits so thats a game you'll have to learn through trial and error. But in the long term, if you're originating, you'll always have the sharp books as well as other outs that perhaps you can connect to using networking and partners. But remember, having the skill to bet and having an edge is just one part of being profitable long-term. You have to build relationships, have partners, network etc etc if you want to do it professionally and maximize those profits. Also, there is nuance to everything I said as well as outlier examples. It's never just black and white. But this is just general advice for a beginner. Also, I hope you know the trading difference between books like draftkings and pinnacle for example. I hope you know what CLV is, EV, Variance, and why lines move etc etc. These are all basic 101 stuff you gotta know if you want to make this a living.

[@SurfaSurfa-cd2qj]

Bro what's your discord and do you have daily or weekly picks i don't mind paying i need your help

[@StarScope-c6t]

*brother I'm professiona thumbnail designer on fiver I can design your thumbnails more eye catching in $40* because you pay $60😮