Fulbright Forum - Geopolitical Model for the Next Decade

Presented by Dr. George Friedman
Introduction and discussion with Amb. Reka Szemerkenyi
geopoliticalfutures.com/
Check out other Fulbright Forums
fulbright.org/fulbright-forum/

[@jameswarner5307]

Friedman always brings perspective to the perceived chaos of the world.

[@mfisher1952]

I agree wholeheartedly. I remember picking up The Coming War with Japan as a lark nearly three decades ago - and getting hooked by the compelling rigor of his model. I've been a follower ever since.

[@mfisher1952]

@Not Needed it would be helpful if you used your real name - and not quite so spineless.

[@walidsadiq5085]

The World is actually in perceived Chaos as of 2001

[@walidsadiq5085]

He is a Political genius and a Global predictor

[@9810027]

Dr. Friedman has a great explanation voice and has many interesting insights. He's not always right (no one is) but he is very thoughtful.

[@zeanamush]

He is right about all 4 of these entities

[@zeanamush]

@Not Needed They are a Nuclear power and won every war it has ever fought. It is richer than all its neighbors and had one of the best intelligence services in the world. That description of any nation would be a regional power.

[@michaeledgar5863]

Best line. You have been to Washington DC. Come to America next.

[@JoshuaWilloughbyArt]

I truly appreciate and value the intelligent and informed voice of George Friedman.

[@chriskenney4377]

I was there with McCarthy, MLK, jr., R. Kennedy, Dem. convention riots, Nixon. Base upon the way our institutions have responded, the events today feel decidedly different and more threatening.

[@fredk3859]

I agree. The hope I see is that the radical left has been working quietly (at least to the average person) to infiltrate and destroy major American institutions behind the scenes. With Trump's election they were drawn out into clear view and have laid their cards on the table. Now their intentions, which look totally unhinged to people who have shaken free of media brainwashing, are clear and they have to fight in the open. That's a battle that can be won by rational people which I still think the majority of Americans are.

[@calibvr]

@@fredk3859 already shown. In what world would we lose a debate on if saying so changes your sex?

[@tommyodonovan3883]

GF is right about Historical Geopolitics being the key to predicting & understanding what will happen in the next 10 to 100yrs? The problem is there's about a dozen possible outcomes...and a "happy" ending isn't one of them.

[@mfisher1952]

A happy ending almost never comes about - but a complex ending? Inevitable.

[@DJRYGAR1]

tbh, there is only one ending, thermal death of universe and it is 100% certain ;D

[@thesimpleanswer2264]

@@DJRYGAR1 theoretically that isn't the end an another universe will eventually explode out into the cosmos.

[@ravindertalwar553]

Wonderful Presentation And Reasonable Explanation to Explore

[@simonv1874]

Political situation on Cuba always was important for USA

[@slfriend]

❤️🙏🏼❤️🙏🏼MAHALO!!❤️🙏🏼❤️🙏🏼

[@satyanandapal6678]

Reality is not what is to be obvious but something which harmonises the past with the future ....this major conflict which is emminent now would ultimately lead to a new world order which would be more democratic and inclusive than what the US or China expects it to be

[@bob___]

It was really interesting how obviously the moderator didn't want to hear what the speaker was saying.

[@user-xk1sy9pl6z]

Wasn't Fullbright one of Slick Willie's mentors? Asking for a friend...

[@sirpamariannesinimaa7624]

Only fifty-two European political entities? How do you come to that?

[@valentinstoyanov304]

Geopolitics, geography is destiny...

[@tommyodonovan3883]

Geography & Politics

[@karlnordenstorm8816]

Starts around 3:20

[@simongraham2516]

When was this aired? not in 2021?!

[@unitedstatesofpostamerica7559]

Lonestar beer, not Fivestar

[@tommyodonovan3883]

FUDD Beer

[@anthonycarlino4604]

25:00

[@MrOkadaman28]

US hasn't been around for up to 250 years, and only began to consolidate as a nation in the second half of the 19th Century, culminating the completion of the Panama Canal in 1914. So US doesn't really have enough history for George to conclude that US has "unique internal strengths" - which no other nation on earth has. Some Chinese dynasties went on longer than the US has been in existence - and China survived the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. I seriously doubt the US could survive a similar upheaval.

[@hongli2920]

" So the UA doesn't really have enough history ..." The whole reason the US has "unique internal strengths" is because its lack of long history the old continental European and Asian countries have thus bound and impeded by these "histories". Histories of animosity, conflicts, border or territorial water disputes, etc.etc. As Dr. Friedman put it in many of his speeches, the US is an invented country and it continues to invent herself not bound by LONG HISTORY. Looking at recent world history since the founding of the US and see how much the world has been changed and shaped by the continuous invention of the US herself whether internally on social/political fronts and internationally on geo-political front. To me being an American is being free including free from the shackles of my own birth country's history China

[@tommyodonovan3883]

The USA has secure borders and eventually Mexico and Canada will become States. The USA sets the price of food, nobody can make it cheaper than U.S., and every other strategic resource price....we are invincible, mostly because the USA will do as every other Superpower has done in the past, if it is able.... Destroy any and all rivals that threats its hegemony. A *"Kill it before it grows"* stratagem. The only possible geopolitical threat to the USA is an economic/military alliance between Germany and Russia, other than that occurrence it'll be smooth sailing for U.S. next 50yrs. There very well maybe a civil war in the USA, the Republic can not survive its empire status, as the Roman Republic couldn't survive its empire. Trump is a Caesar like figure, in that Trump like Caesar will be the catalyst that destroys the last pretence of our beloved American Republic. *-LLSPQA*

[@johnnymatias3027]

The US Civil War killed 3.2% of the population in 5 years, far more than the 1.9% killed by the Chinese Civil War over 21 years. You're right about one thing, the USA wouldn't have survived if what happened during the Great Leap Forward happens in the US. That is, mismanagement by a cult of personality tyrant of such a brutal scale no other human in history can match it. If that happens, it's after whatever revolution destroyed the Constitutional Democratic Republic that is the current USA.

[@MrOkadaman28]

@@johnnymatias3027 But China didn't only experience the Taiping Rebellion in the 19th Century, it also experienced two opium wars, a naval war with Japan, and other military incursions by Western powers. Even at that, it took a lot (e.g. the Boxer Rebellion and foreign counter attacks in the early 20th Century) to finally end the Qing Dynasty. Mao reconstituted the Chinese state, and that state was able to withstand both the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution - and remain in one piece. I doubt the US could survive all that, and still reconstitute itself. One reason why I don't take the American analysts who insist that China "will collapse due to economic pressures in 10 years" seriously. They've survived worse in the past.

[@johnnymatias3027]

@@MrOkadaman28 yeah, China lost the opium war, lost the naval war with Japan, had its 3,000 year old imperial government obliterated and 10% of the population killed by rebellion and famine on several occasions, all in the same time the US maintained its democratic constitution and the same federal government, merely realigning when political problems occurred and only once descending into civil war, which still maintained the federal and even most of the slave state governments after the war. While at the same time the British empire peaked and died, the Russian empire peaked and was destroyed, the Ottoman empire peaked and was destroyed, the Austro-Hungarian empire peaked and was destroyed, the German state formed, then into an offensive empire twice and turned into an American dog twice, the French went through 3 governments, and the Chinese empire peaked and was destroyed by its own people who then were destroyed by Soviet funded communists. China will survive, but will your CCP? Edit: Mao let the Japanese kill most of the KMT then destroyed what scraps remained, then proceeded to kill 45 million Chinese with famine in the decade immediately following his usurpation of power from the heroes of WWII. The only reason the CCP survived and won was Soviet funding and direction, not the great Mao who murdered more Chinese than the fucking Japanese, not even counting the famine. The US is having as close to a cultural revolution as it ever will, and doing completely fine, growing in fact.

[@jonrolfson1686]

When discussing the possibility that war might be brought on by efforts to expand by invading Taiwan or by militarily asserting unilateral and exclusionary control of the South China Sea, it would be useful to refer to the aggressor power as the Communist Party of China (CPC), commonly known as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or as that party’s administrative expression, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). China, as a cultural, historical and ethnic entity, will almost certainly survive the wind-down of the CPC/CCP and the PRC. It is neither necessary nor useful to regard the Chinese successor state(s) as inevitable aggressors or as permanent adversaries.

[@afonsords]

As much as I appreciate his perspectives, I can't help but feel he's always gets it a bit wrong on European affairs.

[@aceofswords1725]

This geopolitican, whose analysis is otherwise stellar, fails to understand the import of coronavirus and "vaccines". Some questions for the esteemed expert: where did it come from and how did it manage to spread across the world so quickly, the difference in impact of the said "pandemic" on the country of origin and that of its rivals... who is bankrolling the organizations and interest groups behind the immensely destructive hysterical reaction to the said "pandemic" in the whole world except one particular country? In other words, who benefits? And quite blatantly at that? Europe's "failure" to distribute the "vaccines" more efficiently may be its last saving grace before it dissolves. Europeans voted for EU in order to be able to travel and trade without passports and now the EU unelected bureaucracy has "made a decision" to institute internal passports. Papers please. I don't think europeans will stand a blatant fourth reich, we've had enough of those. Yes, the great reset and the new normal are coming, but I don't think they're going to look like what they had planned.

[@leomirkin6909]

I agree with your scepticism: George Friedman's analysis is somewhat behind the time. He is missing a more contemporary concept of "hybrid" wars, wars below the threshold of the all-out-war. Hillary Clinton pioneered the "color revolutions" in Ukraine, Lybia, and Egypt. Putin's Russia replied in Georgia and Donbas area of Ukraine. You have to find and fund the "revolutionary" group of turncoats, start an uprising and send help from the outside. China's reply to the US supercarriers is the "peoples maritime militia" with low-grade weapons on fishing ships coming to help "brothers and sisters yearning to unify with the Motherland". China does not worry about casualties - their people's lives are of no cost. The massive media operation will splash the "Taiwanese massacre of the peaceful fisherman" across TV and the Internet causing an outcry in China and in Europe. China has pre-paid for the sympathetic voices in the US, the UN, e.t.c. When you have an excess of human bodies you don't need nuclear weapons. George Friedman should stop viewing the world through the WWII lens.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

They are called *"Europee-ons"* for a reason.

[@justingeneral3078]

Just say Israel, dummy. Let your stupidity shine for all to see. You know nothing of how it was there during the pandemic. Your nation's failings are entirely it's own. Learn to accept that and stop blaming an imagined other

[@fightefx]

so much better than Zeihan.

[@alexbuckley4378]

they are both good. friedman is more general with how he talks, while zeihan has a thesis thats both popular (makes money) and concise for people for people who are new

[@jojoman.123]

Although his analysis on geopolitics is world class for the majority of the interview, his comments on climate are fundamentally misinformed and incorrect. Hope he does more research on the topic, realize how absurdly significant it is for our near future, and take it into account when making future projections on the big picture.

[@jojoman.123]

His opinions appear similar to that of skeptics when the Inconvenient Truth came out in 2006. Our understanding of the situation has dramatically improved since and the scientists are unequivocal on its causes. Although I don’t believe it politically possible anymore, there’s a reason humans need to cut global emissions in half by 2030!

[@tommyodonovan3883]

If CC was real the banks wouldn't offer a 25yr mortgage on coastal property, nor would people wish to live there....Florida is the fastest growing state last 10yrs, their highest elevation is 345 feet above sea level. Obama has a $14m(?) home in Martha's Viveyard 20 feet ASL.

[@justingeneral3078]

GFs analysis is top class, and I am no expert, but I feel his analysis is often too narrow. There are many wildcards throughout history, and the slightly arrogant certainty with which he talks stinks a little. Things he often appears to neglect in my view are the potential for internal collapse and massive social change caused by sudden global events. The USA's perfect defensive geography is the very thing which could allow it to detach itself from reality. It wouldn't be the first Empire to do this. Furthermore, it is very hard to predict how technological changes could open up new battlefronts, but it undoubtedly will. I just find his smug certainty a little unconvincing. It makes him seen like he has an agenda in his predictions.

[@RR1976]

Why does she need to use a blue screen type background? So silly distracting and completely unnecessary especially when it barely works. Ok... on to the main content.

[@kgb2hell]

15:52 In your analyse of Russia you missed a very important point: the current Russian Tsar is near death, Putin has cancer and will he be alive till the end of this year or not - this is a big question. Who will inherit the power - is the other "one million dollars question". Muslim North Caucasus (and the future Emir of United Caucasus Emirates - Ramzan Kadyrov) is absolutely ready to declare independence. Then we'll see the "Domino effect": the same will do the other Muslim states: Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, some areas of Volga regions with Muslim population. As the result - the total collapse of the Russian Federation, the religion war, and millions of refugees escaped to Europe. 23:01 Regarding commies will not occupy Taiwan - u r wrong either. You are measuring the situation from "the average geopolitical values" (that was reasonable under President Trump's administration) and forgot to value the current situation - the totally fake and hopeless person at the White House today. The "balance of power" is significantly broken (that's why on 21st of January Russian troops started the relocation to the Ukrainian border). "When there is no sheriff in a town, the power belongs to gangsters" (C) So, there are two main factors why this invasion will happen: 1) The current person in White House - is the weakest president in USA history ("deep state" beheaded the nation) 2) West analytics massively blind and can't see the hidden battle between "old" (I'd like to call them "pro-soviet") and "young" (pro-western) political forces in the political management of China. It is extremely important for Xi Jinping to win this "small successful battle" in the name of the "United China" (same as what was done with Hong Kong) to survive in this "under carpet internal war". This victory is absolutely critical for Xi to stay in power and alive. Furthermore, there is the diplomatic preparation for the situation after Taiwan will be occupied: the Chinese are a bargain currently with the Kremlin: we'll recognise Crimea as "the historical part" of Russia in the UN, and you will do the same with Taiwan as the "historical part of China". So, what USA and other "weak power" countries will do in this case? Nothing. So, the reality (would you like it or not) is: 1) total future instability in former USSR area in a pretty visible period of time 2) the weakest EU, managed by "social democrats" (or, properly to say, by politically toothless Mensheviks) 3) collapse of power in the USA, where Three Powers demonstrated totally untrustful behavior and weakness. As the result - two states instead of one: managed by Democrats and managed by Republicans. And they will fight to each other (unfortunately the first stage - absolutely unusual migration of populations - have been started. As a result, the cost of property in Rep's states are growing like a snowball) 4) significant growth of the commie's China's power that will change totally the "rules of the game" on this common "Titanic". Marxism eliminated Russia. Neo-marxism will eliminate USA. This Civilisation "canceled" the "rules of the game" that stabilised the driving of our "Titanic" and will follow the same fate, as Rome's Empire. New barbarians (Chinese commies and Islamofascists) are at a low start, however, "political correctness" is totally wiping the possibility even to discuss it.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

I agree that the CCP will attack Taiwan during the Joe Biden (VP Kamala Harris) administration, they'll never get a better chance than now, Joe Biden is suffering rapid cognitive decline and Harris is an empty pant suit.

[@mfisher1952]

Good point. Actually, neither China nor Russia have a designated successor in place - or even a planned process at the moment. But you are correct. Russia's case appears to be more urgent.

[@2Oldcoots]

"Maybe we should be friends with the Russians because (LOL) this time will be different". That's what Angela Merkel believed. Jeez, the wishful thinking of a teenager.

[@kienwenchang7108]

China Is Big，China Is Populous。 China Can Solve Problems。 Teach People How To Grow Rubber Trees And Collect Rubber To Make Erasers.