Future of Transportation / Keynote: 2020 NC DOT Transportation Summit

Raleigh, North Carolina, January 8th, 2020.
The #CleanDisruption of Energy and Transportation will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. By analyzing and anticipating these disruptions, we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense, but to seize the upside, we will need to mitigate the downside.
Based on Seba's #1 Amazon bestselling book "Clean Disruption" and Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, this presentation lays out the key technologies (#batteries, #WlectricVehicles, #AutonomousVehicles), business model innovations (#ride-hailing, transportation-as-a-service #TaaS), how the technology disruption will affect existing companies and sectors (#MarketTrauma) and how it will unfold over the next decade, as well as key implications for society, finance, industry, cities, and infrastructure.

[@dasso7547]

I hope no Tesla short seller is going to watch this video, because that could lead to a heart attack, sorry bro ;)

[@dasso7547]

The problem in your responses is that you consider Tesla as a "automobile company" or "car maker" that's a Big mistake because Tesla is a energy company: Solar, megapack and EV. And this is what happen when your are just a car maker: www.google.com/amp/s/www.autoblog.com/amp/2020/01/23/mercedes-halves-eqc-production-battery-shortage/

[@zezizarjaars]

I think most of them already had some heart attacks recently.

[@MrSmithwayne]

those short sellers are prob ones that have longs in oil markets or directly in the oil companies themselves. hehe

[@phamnuwen9442]

@@dasso7547 86% of Tesla's Q4 revenue came from auto. By definition they are an automaker. Solar doesn't contribute much in spite of a massive 30% purchase subsidy, special rules like mandated net metering and the virtual criminalization of nuclear. Solar is a total non-starter compared to nuclear on a first principles physics basis.

[@elmatador6589]

Idiots. So we go from paying cents per mile to multiple dollars per mile and donating the difference to the sick and corrupt government. You people are idiots!!

[@jimenajimenaoe4188]

This is incredible!! 💪🔥

[@macioluko9484]

But true!

[@Coltn3125]

Companies don't disrupt themselves because they have to much money invested and don't want to loose that income. This is why I don 't see any of the OEM's surviving Tesla and the other new EV companies.

[@BobHiltner]

Possibly true. It would be shocking, but less so when you consider that CEOs are replaceable cogs in the system. When they are malfunctioning, i.e., underperforming for a couple of quarters from cannibalizing their own sales, missing revenues and dumping $$$$ into R&D, they are out of a job. They are relatively powerless to make this transition.It's not just about lack of vision.

[@Coltn3125]

@@BobHiltner Exactly. Just what I said but in more details.

[@riley_oneill]

Sears had the premier catalog business in the US. They had one of the highest rate of Americans ordering via catalog of any major retail institution. They released their final Sears Catalog a year or so before Amazon was founded. Despite the fact that they had customers, financing, and distribution down, they didn't bother to rapidly go into an online catalog company in the mid 90s, instead they opted for their shopping mall anchor store business model. When Amazon did come around major retailers thought of them as some joke. Amazon disrupted them all.

[@meamzcs]

It's called the innovators dillemma.

[@michelangelobuonarroti916]

Disagree. They have too much money invested.

[@mathewphilip6764]

Great presentation! Thinking ahead instead of looking in the past. Key especially with unprecedented disruptive technologies converging. Thanks for the teaching!!!

[@bennysbwong690]

Thank you for putting up a very informative presentation on transportation. Just wondering if we free up so much spaces from reduction of carpark spaces, then when will we face peak property price or supply in big cities?

[@BrutisBB]

How many FSD EVs will be needed per year once FSD is available?

[@cbmasson3572]

I think governments are likely to tax these robotaxis so transportation isn’t as cheap as you predict

[@KrisTC]

I think supermarket should convert their parking spaces into vertical farms with solar on the roof.

[@najibyarzerachic]

Funny I work at a place with multi storey parking ramp. I have been thinking about converting that ramp coz the would be lesser cars to park the in future .

[@allencrider]

I think they will convert parking lots to little shanty towns for the unemployed.

[@NickNov]

brilliant

[@NickNov]

@- Seradest aeroponic

[@janestackhouse8764]

@@allencrider I think we should build nice apartments and parks in the parking lots and do away with houselessness.

[@garymenezes6888]

Yaaaaaay, Tony's back. Tony you should Title your talks"I told you so..."

[@macioluko9484]

Toe de so! I f@cken toe de so! - Rickey

[@SolvingTheMoneyProblem]

Excellent presentation.

[@derekjenkinson8014]

Solving The Money Problem: disruption a common term that Tesla backers are using, Cathie Wood. Back over $800 😀that matters!

[@madhououinkyoma]

Nice to see you here Steven!

[@SolvingTheMoneyProblem]

@@madhououinkyoma I'm everywhere 😉

[@HarlanLimpert]

Seba appears brilliant though he made two statements that are so obviously wrong it makes one question his other stated facts. First, he says at 30:05 that "you can actually park sideways with an EV. Try that with a diesel engine car". There is not an EV on the road that can park sideways. Imagine the complicated engineering of wheels and axles to make that happen. Second, at about 29:00 he makes reference to an "infinite mile warranty" and references a Tesla blog as the source. Maybe someday but currently the warranty is 120,000. I know -- I own a Tesla Model 3. Third, he states internal combustion engine cars have 2,000 moving parts but an electric car only 18. That seems like an exaggeration. True, there are many fewer moving parts in an EV because of the electric motors versus complicated ICE engines. But they also have brake rotors, power windows, power seats, power mirrors, power door handles, shift knobs, etc. - all of which adds up to more than 18. I wish he had said "far fewer parts" or "1/10th the number of parts" so as to be more realistic. I hesitate to be critical. His analysis appears brilliant. But small errors or exaggerated facts can detract from his larger and more important message. Thought???

[@davefroman4700]

There are multiple vehicle prototypes now that incorporate hub motors and the ability to traverse laterally. You go to CES and the tech shows in Asia and there are a few with autonomous cab designs with such features. Nothing in production yet but inevitable none the less.

[@stephenjelso6270]

Interesting presentation and data. Few comments: 1) just because you do not own a car does not mean you do not pay a gas tax. You pay for it indirectly through higher food costs, higher taxi/ride-share fares, etc. 2) please overlay actual historical Lithium Ion battery costs on your projection curve @ 24 mins. 3) might want to define "moving parts". A Tesla has 17 "moving parts" in the drive-train (various sources/forums). The electric motors have moving parts including gears. Absolutely an EV has much fewer than an ICE car but the ratio presented does not seem to be apples to apples. 4) might be interesting to touch on e-bikes and e-scooters. For the last mile (or more) they are a game changer (throw in trunk). I ride a scooter 12 miles RT to work when weather permits, as fast as driving my used Tesla S and probably costs me $0.40 in power. 5) what was the cost ratio of owning a horse/buggy in early 1900's vs a car? Thank you...SJ

[@walk-with-Walz]

Youre quibbling ffs, get over your self-importance

[@SubduedRadical]

@@walk-with-Walz no, he makes a lot of great points.

[@simoc24]

Horse vs ICE historic cost curve, that will make a fine phd paper for some grad students...someone may have done that already. I should go check :) my guess was car cost more than house+carriage all the way in the first 20 some years, until the model T, then horse + carriage together was more than the car. This is just my guess.

[@ke6gwf]

@@simoc24 the cost comparison between a horse and a car isn't accurate, just like the cost comparison between a shovel and a bulldozer isn't accurate. They both move dirt, but at totally different scales. A car may have been more expensive than a horse, but it could also do much more work, haul heavier loads, didn't require rest breaks, could go much faster and farther, and when you were done with it, you parked it and forgot about it. A horse requires constant care and fueling, even if you aren't using it, and if one has a flat tire, you have to shoot it, and lose all your investments, rather than just replacing the tire. These factors do offset the comparison between the adoption of the car, and the switch to electric, because the car was better than the horse in pretty much every way, from a daily user experience, but the ICE can do pretty much everything the EV can, and quite a few things better (such as range by adding large fuel tanks, and instant refueling). So the cost difference will be the main driver to EVs, where it was utility that drove the horse to car transition.

[@petemiller519]

Excellent presentation and insight Tony! Thank-you for sharing your knowledge, experience and wisdom. We truly are living and witnessing historical times. Cheers from Canada.

[@gzcwnk]

Same presentation, rinse and repeat for the last 6 years? Mind you its still an awesome presentation.

[@brunosmith6925]

Lots of updates, however - Tony has to drag the audience through the history, in order for his current stuff to have relevancy. I recall watching this presentation many years ago, and what is striking is how accurate his prediction timelines have been. While much of his presenation is "old-hat" to many of us, seeing a lot of what he was saying 7 years ago now happening, is sobering.

[@meamzcs]

The thing is he can keep saying the same things with updated graphs because they are still true...

[@EMichaelBall]

Most people still haven't seen it.

[@Nolagadh]

@@EMichaelBall Then you can change that. Just share the video with your friends.

[@ehlava]

he has a new line on the meat industry but i think that is mostly for paying customers, book buyers, and those who dig. check out his twitter feed for it.

[@BerryURL]

He actually predicted the crash of oil prices that occurred this year. Damn

[@waywardgeologist2520]

Oil prices collapsed this year because of a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the Russians trying to destroy U.S. frackers, and Covid-19.

[@mikeferris8033]

One of the most profoundly intelligent presentations I have ever listened to, and I am old professional presenter. Congratulations Mr. Seba, brilliant, keep them coming, the World needs to hear you!

[@gabydewilde]

He should put a picture of nyc showing 1 robot and lots of people. What happened to the people? Unemployment, starvation and then biogas fuel. They eat us *the end*

[@robinsedlag2724]

Tony is predicting this technology distribution since years. And now it really happens due to Tesla, Rivian, Nio, Faraday Future, Byton and many others. Amazing times are comming...

[@web2yt488]

NIO won't exist at the very least. Why would anyone in China buy a NIO when they can buy a chinese made Tesla.

[@imntacrook8697]

@@markplott4820 ...and its a better car!

[@Rex-du2hq]

@@web2yt488 " Why would anyone in China buy a NIO when they can buy a chinese made Tesla." They will buy NIO because of Market size! China is huge......

[@-whackd]

Waymo, Cruise (GM), Zoox, Aurora (Amazon), Mobileye, Aptiv and many others are ahead of the bulk of that list, Tesla being the possible exception.

[@jyo5764]

except tesla non of those companies made an one single actual sellable car yet lol

[@BobHiltner]

5:51 Gates dismissing the Internet. Encarta was Microsoft's CD-based encyclopedia. It was revised annually. There was not even an article in 1994 Encarta on the Internet. Microsoft made a near-miraculous organizational change effort to get out in front of it after that. Had they not, they likely would have perished, just like Subaru will. R.I.P. soon.

[@stalemateib3600]

I remember Encarta. :D

[@stalemateib3600]

I remember Encarta. :D

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

Gates has a long history of promoting the wrong things. He started with BASIC, missed out on the Internet, and now his big hobby horse seems to be the travelling wave reactor (which is not at all as he descibed it). I don't understand why he isn't getting called more on his many foolish advocacies.

[@rsilvers129]

Sure there was: winworldpc.com/product/encarta/1994

[@ryzkyjaeger07]

I still install Encarta on our ship's local network

[@Powerofthepickle]

I look forward to the day I no longer need a car.

[@wonderplanet343]

Use Lyft or Uber.. it’s cheaper than a car payment sometimes.. but if you go far it’s more expensive ..

[@wonderplanet343]

Mark Plott It’s not legal yet. Not proven to work and who knows maybe next week or for some places and weather never safe and approved? Also people will abuse the cars and eventually prices may need to rise. It could be a money losing business but succeed at $.18 a mile.. maybe survive on ad revenue. MIT says corporate expenses, remote driver and taxi license costs, cleaning and recharge employees, fleet parking lots and repair yards will make costs more than driving your own car for high mileage average consumer. Can you think of a way to prevent dirty shoes or sticky -fingered kids from making an interior dirty, and how to avoid almost daily interior cleaning with its costs and wasted time? Cleaning is annoying and time consuming to a private owner, and expensive for a fleet. I think most people want their own mobile space and clean seats and a lot of items in the vehicle ... and so do not want to share that car nor want to use daily someone else’s EV. Yes even if it is cheaper we don’t take buses nor taxi nor ride share but pay way more for our own car. It might be financially wiser for people to ride share now but only certain people do.. usually younger people who don’t mind too much if they are late or don’t leave immediately ;).

[@wonderplanet343]

Mark Plott ok.... Yes I’ve been in Japan. (That’s not the issue.) Wow, and they work for less than it would cost to own a high mileage car? Not really.. you support my high cost of service point ..

[@wonderplanet343]

Mark Plott Yes but worldwide most places are not as Densely populated as the most densely populated city in the world. I guess you’re bored? I don’t understand your point, as you are talking about a highly unusual case of the ‘unique’ overcrowded center of Japan whereas I am talking about the world trend. A taxi service is just going to be more expensive than owning a private car for high mileage users in most places of the world, yes you do have a point...there are some mega cities that private ownership is a problem. It’s not much of the world. So I don’t think Robotaxis will dominate yes hopefully we will reduce our populations instead of continuing to destroy the planet…and car ownership will not disappear.

[@wonderplanet343]

Mark Plott great can’t wait for my free cruise rides free private island!! I want some free chocolate cake too yum yum

[@ghosh_com]

Thank you Tony for sharing your wisdom, hard work, and insights. Fantastic presentation!

[@TDubya811]

Similar presentation Tony has been doing for years. But still very interesting as he updates on his predictions. If his vision of 2030 is true, I don't think I'll be living in a city. 1 hour commute is fine if you can sit back and have breakfast or coffee - probably have an impact on the demographics of cities. This is assuming I still have a job that requires me to work in a city.

[@brunosmith6925]

YEs... I've been watching Tony do this stuff for a long time - and he always starts with that NY 1900-1913 analogy. He has to regurgitate all this though, if his updates are to make any sense to the audience. What is striking, however, is that his prediction timing is remarkably accurate. I wonder if the legacy car companies, fossil-fuel companies and the myriad of associated industries are aware of what is soon to happen to them.

[@TDubya811]

@@brunosmith6925 Think a minority of employees at the soon to be disrupted oil and legacy car companies must be aware if their impending fate. However the following quote comes to mind "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair Another interesting quote which documents the increasing rate of disruption: "In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 1990, it was 20 years. It's forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026." [Inc.com] Think more than a few companies from the oil and legacy car manufacturers will contribute the 2026 forecast!

[@meamzcs]

Jup. It will be great when for many the door to the Office will be right in front of their home. You would be able to get into the self driving car and start working during the 1h commute and keep working during the 1h commute back. Which means you have a lot more quality family time.

[@ashh3051]

@@meamzcs I feel sick if I use my laptop in a car. They better make the suspension ultra-comfortable and minimize g-forces.

[@meamzcs]

@@ashh3051 They will probably do that. Suspensions are getting to a new level anyway now that we have systems that actually analyse the street below the car and adjust the suspension in milliseconds. I think a lot of that is also just changing lighting conditions from the outside. I guess you would be able to make it completely dark inside and have constant lighting by LEDs or something.

[@solarman6648]

Love the optimism. I'm a better person after watching this. Thank you.

[@mrgpomona420]

What about the people that work in the transportation business. People that rely on transporting goods [ commercial vehicle transportation] to make income. Lets just kick them to the curb. People that worked their whole lives to build a business that they rely on, so that their family can survive!

[@GM4ThePeople]

Thanks Tony, was interested to see your slides & hear your expanded commentary describing your framework! The combination of new & improved things we can do with convergences of your 10 key techs seems endless - should be interesting!! o/

[@ericborthistle]

This has not aged well. Most Autonomous experts nowadays are pretty skeptical it we will be level 5 anytime soon if ever.

[@varblade821]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/f56tmnp3drSGp5Y

[@131313griffin]

Sure we know where the technology is going but there is not going be to anywhere near the money kept back in our pocket.Corporations will not get into this to help us keep money in our pockets. "Durham to Raleigh for less than a dollar" in a few years ,I guess he's smoking the good stuff.Also as soon as you buy that coffee or whatever at starbucks you will have to give up a kidney for the price they charge; you don't ride because no one rides for free! I have telling people the oil price has to come down as there is no other way for it to go,sure the elites will create a few wars to keep it up a bit but this will only be temporary. Most everything is spot on except for us getting anywhere near this amount of cash back .Remember this is happening purely for economic reasons;one example was the technology for phones drove up the costs tenfold ...they did not decrease the prices .

[@beatricewatson4963]

Wow. You managed to get every point entirely *WRONG.* Congratulations!

[@DugOrion]

Tony, wow, thank you for this video. This really makes you think and ponder the future. So many ways to make money during this disruption.

[@clnelson321]

Tony was conservative in his outcome. It's happening even faster. WOW.

[@ralphhardie7492]

Best thing I've seen in years.... Excellent presentation

[@briantemple1848]

This guy should give a talk to our MPs in Parliment. They are all small minded & only think in 5 year periods. After having lived abroad and coming back to the UK, TIME TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE. the UK is a DICKENSIAN COUNTRY, it is the same as left it 50 years ago.

[@Jacobmettler88]

That's a lot of garages getting turned into extra living space.

[@EvilMonkey7818]

Sure sounds like it. Until you consider 40% of Americans don't even live within a metropolitan area. And that people don't make all their decisions on saving money. If we did, the average new home wouldn't be 2.5x larger than 50 years ago while we're having half as many children. SUVs and trucks wouldn't be nearly as popular as they are here in the US.

[@ristopaasivirta9770]

The twist: It's the same guy riding the horse and driving the car. He just didn't want to conform to the norm.

[@chalupa808]

Hipsters... SMH

[@IuseanXboxController]

Thanks for this video, it's awesome to open your mind and think about these things. I don't have a "job" and my last job was retail at $13 an hour. I own an EV that only does 60 miles to a charge because it's the cheapest option, it's paid off. I now use it to work the gig economy and can pull about $80 from a $2 charge in about 2 to 3. Have put 75k miles on it in 4.5 years. Wish I could afford a Tesla, someday I will be there.

[@IuseanXboxController]

Also the 30k barrier is broken in the States for an EV by Chevy. You can go walk in and get a bolt for about 9-11k off MSRP. People are walking out paying 24-26k OTD for brand new 2020 bolts with 259 miles of range. Your predictions are great BTW!

[@IuseanXboxController]

One question for you Tony Seba. You talk about autonomy in this video, what do you think robots are going to do for us in the next 15 years? Those that have been watching have seen the progress that Boston Dynamics has made in the last decade.

[@marduchok]

​@@IuseanXboxController Robots by 2030 can replace humans in most of the manual tasks. Every dirty/dangerous/boring/repetitive work robot will do better and safer

[@IuseanXboxController]

@@marduchok I 100% agree with you about that. I want to know what we are going to do about the millions it will displace from the work force. That's the biggest disruption we will ever see in our civilization.

[@marduchok]

@@IuseanXboxController it seems to me that UBI might be a viable option

[@figdish90]

tony is awesome, but no way will there be people hanging out at a coffee bar or getting physical therapy while a vehicle is in motion. they might make it more living room like but even AV will require you to wear a seat belt otherwise minor accidents no matter how rare will be fatal.

[@420_FORTNITE]

People will find a way. I'm thinking airbags basically turning the whole space into a bouncy castle in the span on milliseconds. But interesting thought nonetheless, I had not thought about that before.

[@hvacmike1175]

Have you ever worn a seatbelt on a train or a bus?( excluding school buses)

[@alexdevisscher6784]

A very important message. Thank you, Tony!

[@Soothsayer210]

I am surprised he (Tony Seba) did not talk about Electric Autonomous Flights as part of Disruptions. PS: already Mahindra (Auto maker in India) has announced their SUVs this year in India for about 20K US.

[@Marathon1260]

Autonomous driving technology will put the DMV out of business in 20 years or less. I want to live long enough to see it.

[@arthdenton]

57:00 Utopia is just around the corner. Let's celebrate!!! Because we're gonna all be so rich and happy... :) Can't wait.

[@heinuchung8680]

depends who owns the technology. But, utopia has already happened in that abject poverty has decreased even though the richer are richer but nevertheless those living on less than a dollar a day has decreased dramatically. tThere will still be slums and poor people but hopefully we can solve basic transport , food and sanitary needs for even more people on earth.

[@kevinwilson9791]

Tony Seba and his disruption framework is incredible. In Alberta Canada we are witnessing the disruption now in Oil and Gas investment. Big Oil sees the writing on the wall and is backing out of multi billion dollar investments. O&G investment is drying up. Kindermorgan got out of Transmountain and just today Teck Resources cancelled a 20Billion oil sands project. Time to wake up and respond while we can.

[@gmarefan]

This is confirming a lot of my personal research on these subjects

[@johnnysinger3353]

I'm not sure how you can go thru all this and talk about the financial benefits and claim everyone will benefit and not mention how devastating this will be to both the economy/country as a whole and for families when the 1M+ autoworkers and 10M+ oil jobs are gone. Electric cars take 1/3 the amount of labor to produce. So saving a grand a year on a car payment is meaningless when you collapse an entire city.

[@allencrider]

Today, WTI Crude closed at $22.89 a barrel. Disruption with an assist from a viral pandemic.

[@willpowell4392]

Reverend Al -$40 now

[@allencrider]

I will keep my 1997 Saturn in the future for recreational purposes. And show it at old car meetups on Sunday.

[@dudove1]

Scotty Kilmer will stay say Toyota celica is better than ev

[@sheamurai2698]

you won't be able to find anywhere to park to have a meetup!

[@milekrizman]

It will be noisy polluting car. It will look totally outdated

[@marduchok]

well, if everything that you said is going to move as fast as you said then 2030 is going to look like a sci-fi fantasy from the 80s. And that's amazing

[@JohnANoonan]

2020 already looks like Scifi compared to the early 1980's. A small set of examples ... 1. Personal computers (IBM PC's) only entered the market in 1982 and the Apple Mac with the first GUI in 1984. 2. Only University and Defence Research organizations in the Western world had access to the embryonic Internet. 3. The word "Internet" did not even enter our Dictionary until around 1995. 4. Early Mobile Phones started to come out in the late 1980's and early 1990's. 5. The first Smartphone, Apple's iPhone did not come out until 2007. 6. Watching the first stage of rockets guide themselves back down to a graceful landing on land or sea was never considered until SpaceX made it happen for the very first time in 2015. Since the early 2000's, Musk with his series of companies has been the most disruptive human being in history. 2020 already looks like Scifi compared to the early 1980's. What other examples highlight the change?

[@davidcadman4468]

@@JohnANoonan 1980 - 0, 1990 - 2, 2000 - 4, 2010 - 8, 2020 - 16, 2030 - 32, 2040 - 64, 2050 - 128, 2060 - 256, 2070 - 512, care to take this progression to 2100. We are just now hitting the knee of the curve. I'm an amateur futurologist and historian, and been writing online for years. So many people think that we will be the same in 2100 as we are today, and it will take hundreds of years to move off planet or build settlements on other space bodies. It's so hard to break into their bubbles.

[@tripnils7535]

The future is already here kzbin.info/www/bejne/fofUiHilrs6UeKMm18s

[@lodragan]

He got one thing wrong: Mac, Windows both have a smaller footprint than Linux because Linux powers the large majority of cell phones on the market because they're running Android (which is Linux under the covers).

[@bubba842]

I think he was talking about computers not mobile technology.

[@lodragan]

@@bubba842 Po'tay'to / Po'tah'to - many many people around the world only use smart phones as their working platform.

[@zcubedmusic]

So are you saying Yang is correct? Who would have guessed that the guy who relies on data is giving factual information? :o Nice presentation and a great job connecting the dots for people who don't understand novel technology adoption rates or the reasons for technological disruptions in general.

[@bradneedleman2493]

Great video. One of the best I have ever seen.

[@bruceskimohr]

Excellent presentation. However, keep in mind this is an urban-centric model.

[@anthonyc8499]

Great presentation that's updated for 2020. Looking forward to seeing your work on energy disruption (wind, solar pv + battery storage) that you were only able to touch on with this talk on transportation.

[@mozit6]

sorry Tony.........Waymo scam was shut down Nov 2023.

[@peace8373]

How are we going to pay for roads? It is time to look at how we are going to finance the building, use, and maintenance of the infrastructure. Should there be a per-mile use tax, how do you split between city, county, state, and nation. We have so many needs that have been deferred, we build guns, bombs instead of investing in the infrastructure for the needs of the nation. The problem with the current business structure in the USA is the investment class is extractors for high profits instead of building new opportunities.

[@Trebuchet48]

That's exactly what I was looking for, especially when he was talking to the folks who actually have to build and maintain the roads!

[@johnnysinger3353]

So Electric cars are horrible for the environment bc it save so 1m folks lives per year.

[@sarahb.6549]

We have to keep in mind, that the batteries are getting much better too. This will boost the disruption even more.

[@ronalddvorak1967]

You are right on with your predictions.

[@bjo004]

6:05 Why do smart people consistently miss predictions (by a very long shot)? I believe it boils down to ignorance, arrogance and pride.

[@charliekopp443]

I love this, but would like to posit that EIA was predicting 118 models of EVs in 2035, not 118 cars.

[@tomtxtx9617]

You are not familiar with how terrible EIA is at predicting anything.

[@Dogbertforpresident]

Ray Kurzweil has been giving talks like this for over 10 years. He calls this the Law of Accelerating Returns which is the exponential growth of tech due to the fact that we are building today's technology using yesterdays tech and building tomorrow's tech using today's tech. This is what gives computing power it's exponential growth which growths all tech. He has a documentary on you tube Transcendent Man. Mind blowing.

[@rengas98]

Good presentation and very realistic. I am going to use my 9 year old car 5 more years and not buying a new one

[@lifehealthbangla]

Awesome presentation . Cannot agree more absolutely mind blowing.

[@joegotyoutuification]

25 years later from university....this is better education and cheaper than going to class.

[@joebloe1401]

A BIT OVEROPTIMISTIC, BUT - WOW - WHAT AN AWESOME PRESENTATION!!!!!

[@EvilMonkey7818]

Indeed. There is so much confirmation bias in these comments, it's almost sad. Tony gives a great presentation, but his predictions are based on everyone living in dense cities, not even suburbs, much less the huge number of people in extremely rural areas. He's probably only 5-10 years too early on his predictions about EV adoption. Regarding automated taxis taking us everywhere - I used to believe that, then I realized how ignorant it was.

[@amyself6678]

Yeah Tony would be impressive 10 years ago, now he is just mirroring the front page with some new statistics. I remember the 60s Nuclear excitement, or 80s supersonic excitement, or 2005 3D craze, or 2009 VR excitement. Most new tech never gets past 5% mostly as toys for the rich for example pools, hot tubs, 3d tvs, and helicopter pads, which have advantages but the middle and lower class prefer to skip and forgo the advantages as too costly and not flexible enough..... Simple problems may kill Autonomous cars, like 1 terrorist hacking 1000 cars and killing 3000 people will get it banned forever, or heck if I see a nice robo-car I may put on a mask and steal it as will most criminals (imagine a $200,000 piece of equipment dozens of miles from its owner, this is dream scenario for thieves). ….. Tony also exaggerates or skips the numbers, gasoline a year is $1500 so not much to save there and most cars have 5 year warranties so savings in maintenance aint a consumer problem mostly - -- and Tony downplays less range and hours of charging even if the half of people who rent apartments somehow can get access to chargers nightly or at least bi-weekly.... Steam cars in 1920 were far better except they took 30 minutes of warming up each morning and time matters even if all the other measures are higher for steam.... Tony does like himself : )

[@chrisstarlitvagabond1496]

These predictions would be completely true... only if machine learning is actually on the cusp of driving more safely than humans. As a software developer, I don't believe AI will get there in the next few years. Tony cites Tesla's claim that they are already safer, but that dataset is far too small. Not to mention, Tesla cars are nowhere near full autonomy -- they strongly encourage driver attention and intervention -- and KZbin is full of Teslas making bone-headed errors that reveal the limitations of Tesla's techniques. Many people underestimate the difficulty of driving a car, especially when it comes to all the quirks of local roads, poorly signed intersections, and the occasional weird shit (twister crossing the road ahead, what do?)

[@chrisstarlitvagabond1496]

I believe full self-driving is closer to a decade or two away, and will require a convergence of AI techniques. It will need experience from beyond the road to understand unusual situations, discern when drivers/pedestrians/cyclists are communicating intent, anticipate those not communicating intent, learn the local driving customs, judge when something in the road requires temporarily violating road rules to get around, determine if going off road briefly is safe or fatal, reliably tell what debris in the road is dangerous or harmless, look for animals ready to jump into the roadway... the edge cases are enormous.

[@seth.heerschap]

This feels like it was just released yesterday -- the content is so high quality and accurate to what actually happened.

[@somchai9033]

Enjoyed the presentation but could you toot your own horn a little less.

[@Dirge_For_November]

While an interesting discussion, it is completely obvious this man never leaves the city.

[@dac545j]

Good point.

[@ai4px]

I really enjoyed this until near the end. Fleets of autonomous vehicles cruising the block all day? A traffic jam of empty cars waiting on a person to need them? Those 2.6million feet of space isn’t all in one place, it’s spread all over the cities.

[@BillyHarvey]

You only need to keep enough vehicles nearby for rapid response. The vast remainder can wait 20 miles away in the boonies.

[@ci8344]

Crap, Who will stop this madness of dehumanising people and favouring machines, cars and this stupid narrative that we do it for economic reasons. Who is this guy working for?

[@FedericoDecara]

Truth. He is a scholar.

[@tomstarwalker]

Driving will become recreational.

[@pasoundman]

There was a time when driving was already recreational. Now, on congested roads it's only a chore.

[@kdshak4904]

Tony with due respect things will not change that quick. When oil drops to $10 a barrel, for few additional years gasoline (ICE) cars and especially trucks sales will increase. So the downwards curve will not be a smooth slide but a lot of jagged edged up and down movement. In the long term though oil and ICE cars are destined for disruption and annihilation.

[@mhendu00ify]

Great presentation. If I would have trusted the youtube algorithm I would have watched it a month ago.

[@markedwards4879]

I’ve been watching Tony for some years. The only part of this that I have trouble with is the utility of transport as a service unless our travelling patterns change. We can’t all hail the same car at the same time to take us to work, or a concert or whatever and keep to the pricing model. Uber as an example already has surge pricing, so I’d expect that the same impact on how quickly people drop their own cars - or travel differently. Something else to consider is the economics of this outside of major metropolitan areas. The density of cars and people is dramatically different and distances even longer so the logistics of transport as a service could be problematic. I’d also expect that working patterns to be disrupted by c19 where lots of people decide working from home is better. With more options for working remotely there could be a serious disruption on where people actually want to live. Instead of flocking to cities for work, people can work from anywhere, and are more likely to live where they want.

[@pinkelephants1421]

Nothing wrong with still owning the same suit 10 years later Tony. A sensible use of the world's resources. I hate today's throwaway culture. I have a few casual clothes that I've had for 30 years - admittedly they're only fit for around the house these days but are perfectly serviceable for the use to which I put them.

[@brettgobar4314]

Huge reduction in vehicle costs using EV's ! watch Tony Seba KZbin video !

[@amyself6678]

EVs save $1000 in gasoline a year which new EV taxes might reduce, and save about $1000 in maintenance and major repair (but most cars have 5 year full warranties so people mostly don't care). Balance these against the cheapest EV is $39k and cheapest ICE is $15k so poor and middle class will stay ICE they don't have extra $15k or even $3k (and India makes a $2k mini car by skipping some safety but shows how low is possible). What is the ''huge'" reduction in vehicle costs you mean?... I admit I was shocked to see a car only uses $1500 in gasoline a year, gas is not a major cost to most people and oil is getting cheaper each year somehow,.... Half of people rent an apartment with a dirt parking lot, this 50% aint going EV... The future is uncertain....

[@Cross-xm2fr]

You are a prophet

[@1matttyler]

I'm concerned with your economic assessments around the 54 minutes mark. You're showing all the positive numbers, but did you take into account for the job loss due to automated vehicles? Less maintenance required, less auto sales, less auto parts needed, loss of ticket revenue for police stations, less collision repair work to be done. That's a huge amount of job loss combined with an additional 1,000,000 people who are no longer dying in car accidents. I'm not trying to be some doom and gloom broadcaster, It just seemed like you either ignored the negative aspects or decided not to include them. Have you read the book "The War on Normal People" ? It paints a pretty vivid picture of the technological disruptions we are facing and some potential solutions to them

[@najibyarzerachic]

Andrew Yang is your freind

[@jesusmarywillsaveyou]

Whoever you are, thank you. I commented on the same thing 1 day ago. What this man is failing to tell all of us is that this was all well planned at least in the 30’s. May I please leave you with some shocking info that you must must go through….AND SHARE... www.reddit.com/r/elonmusk/comments/c7heu1/the_1953_book_mars_project_by_famous_rocket/ www.sott.net/article/416744-All-hail-Elons-Martian-technocracy www.technocracy.news/shock-elon-musks-grandfather-was-head-of-canadas-technocracy-movement/ www.amazon.com/Technocracy-Rising-Trojan-Global-Transformation/dp/0986373907/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top This man Tony is just a shill. God bless.

[@amor-fate55555]

early 1900s 40% of US population was working in agriculture now only 4%. Does that mean all those ppl dont have jobs now lol there is always new jobs that gets created

[@najibyarzerachic]

@@amor-fate55555 there was no AI in 1900.

[@amor-fate55555]

@@najibyarzerachic Jack Ma

[@DougGrinbergs]

Still waiting for a Tony Seba Wikipedia page... (:-(

[@user-qi1yh4oe4q]

Someone has to start it. That could be you.

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

I'm starting to wonder if some people are not on Wikipedia because they don't want to be there. A few examples: I'm still looking for pages for Tony Seba, the filmmaker David Hoffman, the Dutch musician Pip Blom, and several KZbinrs with substantial audiences (and real-world names that we know). That's just my own recollections, over a short time.

[@ericdew2021]

Late last year, around October (2019), I attended a business luncheon where an entrepreneur was pitching his oil drilling business opportunity for investment. I told him that I have no interest in extraction-based business because electric vehicles will become dominant. He said that he can guarantee his investment (which is technically and legally a no-no statement). If he sees this video, he's going to be pissing in his pants because his anticipated ROI was over 5 years. Tony Seba is claiming a drop of 30% in demand for oil by 2021, and he said that even a small drop can cause a huge drop in the price per barrel. Oil is going to drop to $18/bbl by 2030 and the only people who will need to use gasoline are race track operators who rent Lamborghinis to people who rent them for 20 minutes to race around a track at $200/ride.

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

That oil man will probably find a way to disbelieve you. Remember what Upton Sinclair said, about people having trouble understanding what they really don't want to. Now and then, somebody has a road-to-Damascus moment. Jim Cramer saw the light about Tesla a few months ago! But that's rare.

[@paulallsop5593]

Nice presentation Tony!

[@johnparsons3454]

interesting conversation but he has to stop saying 'right'. I couldn't take it anymore

[@TheBryanmauro]

In the future I predict Tony will say "I told you so" .

[@Ethitub]

Very insightful, Thank's Tony

[@vicenteblancoYT]

Hi everyone, I highly believe ón Tony’s presentation and The Growth of The EV are going to have an exponential increase. What stock do you recommend to invest IN order to take advantage ón The información that we have? (Excluding Tesla)

[@steve.k4735]

Go to `Ark Invest` ark-funds.com/ and take a look at who they are investing in .. obviously the companies you believe tie in with this presentation.

[@AbusedPassports]

@@steve.k4735 BLNK

[@livingladolcevita7318]

not sure you mentioned about job losses due to cars becoming obsolete

[@Will-kt5jk]

Seems like the thing that "eats" the existing car stock (in the "horses became food" sense) is a keystone to this. If it's just scraping, then it's going to be expensive & energy intensive in the near-term (you expect it will pay back mid to long term) Modular retrofitting is the only thing that I can see, but what "fleet" is going to want that kind of legacy junk to manage? Existing cars to fleets, be a step in the way, but would likely slow things down...

[@TruthDragon.]

With these savings, people will start spending like never before and will drive up the prices of everything that is in limited supply (ie-real estate on the beach, speed boats, water toys, trucks, etc.) to levels so high, they have never been seen before and any savings from these tech advances will then be wiped out. Then AI robots will take nearly every human job on Earth and none of us will be able to make a living to pay for the dirt cheap transportation costs, but the billionaire corporations will make a killing with their fleets of robots doing all the thinking and labor that humans used to do. Not to mention that because transportation will be controlled by the billionaires, we will all have lost our "mobility". Those glorious self driving cars will be programmed not to go to certain places, including the neighborhoods of the billionaires and including many wilderness areas. So if you like exploring, too bad for you. Ooh, I am so excited for the future. Aren't you! I like Tony, but there is so much that is going to happen in the bigger picture that he does not discuss or even see coming and if you listen to his older predictions from a few years back, he misses a lot. For example, there is now a backlash against lab grown meat and electric vehicles and Tony's recent talks do not even mention these. Take lab grown meat/protein. The human body is not evolved to eat lab grown meat. We evolved to eat range fed meat. Range fed meat has many vitimins and minerals and other good stuff that our bodies need and lab grown meat will be sterile, processed food. No doubt, the powers that be will tell us our bodies will love lab grown meat, but then 100 years later, we will be dying of mysterious diseases that never existed until we started eating lab grown meat and protein. Processed food is processed food. Its not good for you and never will be no matter how efficient and cheap it can be made. And while electric cars will eventually smooth out the kinks, right now, they are not ready for prime time. If you are super rich and love to waste money because you have so much of it, then please keep buying and driving EVs. But if you have a limited budget and don't like having range anxiety, EVs have serious problems. For example, minor fender benders can cause the battery packs to be damaged resulting in a $20,000 to $30,000 repair bill. "So what!" you say, "Insurance will pay for that". Yes, and auto insurance rates will then, and probably are now going to shoot through the roof. Imagine having to pay triple your current auto insurance bill. Its already starting to happen. And then there is the issue of your car bursting into flames while in your home's garage and you are sleeping. You wake up with your home engulfed in flames and barely escape with your life, all because you put a stupid EV in your garage and now you have no home and no car. So you leave your replacement EV in your driveway because you learned your lesson and the next day, some clever tech hacked into your EV and stole it in less than 30 seconds. Then you really learned your lesson and go buy an ICE vehicle again. Then there is the fact that apparently, the build quality of EVs is crap. And the cost of charging is higher than filling up a tank of gas in an ICE car and charging your EV takes far longer. That's because battery technology is not yet ready for prime time. We need better battery tech that charges in only a matter of a few minutes. Let's face it, tax payers are going to have to subsidize the build-out of charging stations across the country in the same way that our ancestors built-out highways and rail and that's a costly political issue. The charging infrastructure has to be there if EVs are going to be practical and now people know that. So let's all face reality and take a step back and regroup. Enough with the propaganda and bull shit. If we are going to convert to EVs, let's do it right and let's realize that it will take far longer than 2030 to disrupt the ICE market because in this case, Tony neglected to include "national and international charging infrastructure technology development" in his timeline. I guess Tony did not see that one coming. Maybe he assumed that problem was solved? Yes, EVs will disrupt the automotive industry, but just because Tony Seba says it will only take 6 or 13 years to do so does not mean he will be correct. Garbage in, garbage out. Tony is human. He won't get all of his predictions right. That is just reality. Nobody is that good. And no, I am not saying Tony is crazy. His ideas are good and in most cases, he will probably be in the ball park on his timeline predictions. But I am just saying Tony is human like the rest of us. He will make mistakes like the rest of us. He, himself, will not see every disruption coming, including the disruptions to his predicted disruptions. That is reality. Live in it!

[@itobyford]

We won't sell our cars, because nobody will want to buy them

[@dray_dnt_hate2177]

Good luck fighting the oil and gas lobby

[@tripnils7535]

ExxonMobil and their friends already are investing big time in renewable energies, because they also know it's inevitable.

[@philterry3293]

The fight is over, it is just when big oil choose to throw in the towel,

[@dray_dnt_hate2177]

Phil Terry The fight is over? They are litteraly making more money than ever.

[@philterry3293]

@@dray_dnt_hate2177 But it isn't going to last, that's what is being highlighted in the video. The oil industry is about to implode.

[@Teslafaninsight]

Nice video. Electric move will be swift.

[@Crashed131963]

7.8 billion people on the earth and always growing. (4.3 billion in 1980 for comparison) Traffic will be the issue. China has a many cars as the US has people today.

[@JerryDLTN]

People who don't have garages couldn't charge their EVs overnight

[@Ondar007]

When this happens, you don't need garage at all! :)

[@FedericoDecara]

Jerry Lifsey send your car to the charge station while you sleep.

[@rissalapolo82]

NO COMPETETION Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green. Vs Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution. Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time. Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years. It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing. The real game of numbers........ mind boggling. Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned. Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!! Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process. The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses. *You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.* In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you. Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!! Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success. The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_ It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!! *Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas* _Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._ *Loyalty, Passion & Trust -* _If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._ Ally. www.evoletindia.com. _What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_ www.evoletindia.com.

[@trashmail8]

Watching this again after Tesla's AI day. =(^_^)= @47:00 Not anything that moves on wheels will be autonomous.. but (Tesla Bot) also anything with LEGS.

[@waywardgeologist2520]

At 28:30 , the numbers don't add up. The cost of gasoline price is not included in his calculations. So, lets take a Jeep Liberty that gets on average 18 mpg and drive it for 5 years with a total of 60,000 miles. The national average cost of gasoline when this video was upload was $2.65/gallon. So, doing simple math, the Jeep would use $8,833 in gasoline. As for the electric Jeep, average electricity is 13.1 cents per KW, and with the same amount of miles and using his average miles per kw, it would come to $1708 (my area the rate for residential is 18cents/kw). The real difference in price would be $7.125/KW, not $13,435. The only reason I can think that he wouldn't update his numbers is that cost difference he has on the graph is meant for more shock value than actual sound numbers. Promoting electric vehicles don't need this kind of statistical manipulation as a selling point, and give the impression that the author is engaging in dishonest behavior.

[@janestackhouse8764]

WOW. Cloud kitchens are buying parking lots, three San Francisco's built in Los Angeles parking lots, 40 miles for $6 on demand with your coffee and daily news. Unbelievable and so hopeful. Let's do it faster than Tony Seba predicts.

[@Robocline]

I have been looking to buying E trucks but as of now it's not feasible for interstate transportation. Tesla is claiming to be producing a truck with a 500 mile range that can be recharged in 30 minutes but the release date has come and gone and I've had no word from them. I have not seen a single charging station at a truck stop. I'm a buyer if the conditions are right but these companies have to step it up if they want to create this new market.

[@stevenbarrett7648]

I wonder what will happen to motor insurance as we won’t need it......less traffic police....less courts.....more medical staff available for the older generation......no traffic jams...easier to get to the pub and home again ......WOW !

[@tjayzlen]

Now the challenged is to find a disruptive companies to invest in that will flourish like Tesla. Anyone got any in mind that you want to share?

[@BerryURL]

Tesla. Tesla still have to flourish

[@timothyharding2943]

Hi Mr Tony I am now optimistic with the future especially following Tesla Investment Day and your presentations I can not wait to get away from this fossil burning society and looking forward to breathing fresh air Money speaks and now the cost of renewables and electric vehicles is cheaper this is the route we must take Well done Mr Seba

[@aodwyer]

"Seba's Law" = Li-iOn Batteries curve - thumbs up to approve. Please pin this to the top too. Anyway, I formally declare that the "Li-iOn Batteries" bullet at around 7:10 be called "Seba's Law." I posted this proclamation just days after this video was uploaded but I am betting Tony is being too modest and had it removed. For added measure, I even said the same on my KZbin video so you can't hide Tony lol. So, let's all thumbs-up this comment to show Tony he deserves the credit for his hard work and being with other greats like Moore and Kryder. Meanwhile, since the lithium in the Li-iOn batteries is a low percentage and could someday be replaced by something different, maybe "Seba's Law" should = "Battery Technologies" or something similar. I'm going to keep reposting this until we give Tony the credit he deserves.