Gareth v Onselen: Is DA a ‘White’ Party? ANC multi-racial? What Election'24 data shows.

In a mammoth exercise to determine how South African population groups voted in Election’24, leading polling company Victory Research overlaid SA’s 2022 Census with voter returns from the 23 296 Voting Districts. The results delivered some surprises about the racial diversity of leading political parties. Victory’s CEO, Gareth van Onselen, shared the findings with BizNews editor Alec Hogg
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[@seanbozaek2054]

Gareth Van Onselen is a master at dissecting voter trends , and his predictions are accurate.

[@bevturner2258]

Instead of using statistics to highlight the racial divide amongst our political parties, let’s use statistics to highlight the salary divide. About 75% of South African workers earn less than R6,000 per month. This group is the backbone of the ANC, MK, EFF. They do not earn enough to pay personal income tax and therefore cannot contribute to the economy. Until we can improve their general living standards we won’t get past the economic divide that threatens the stability of SA.

[@bryantelford495]

There is an incredibly strong informal sector which is not included in imployment statistics where incomes are certainly above R6000 a month. The question is how to scale these informal businesses. Formalising these businesses will certainly help in scalability and job creation but also then help them to contribute to the economy.

[@jgprv2524]

Have you looked at the population size of each group. If so, do you realise how incredibly difficult it is to raise the GDP per capita or salary average of the largest population group, being black, by a MEANINGFUL amount versus other groups.

[@antonetienne3478]

Well, it won't be achieved by stealing from working South Africans and handing it out to illegal immigrants, the jobless and every teen that gets pregnant and has a black baby. Neither will it be achieved ever by excluding white South Africans from the economy, forcing young white South Africans to emigrate and start a new life in a foreign country. The hate is this country for whites are openly expressed. Maybe this country needs to go down the drain.

[@khanyakwezigenu9755]

Focus on equipping existing business in the regions known as ilali,ec, KZN, lim, along with roads to stem the tide of migration 🇿🇦, with jobs & self sufficiency

[@khanyakwezigenu9755]

E informal settlements need to be dealt with,

[@PatBouwer]

Actually maxmax let me inform you correctly. The da were previously called dp, before that progressive party, this political party actually were in opposition to the nationalist party, who were from the apartheid regine. The Da ( previously progressive) voted against racism/ apartheid. Check your facts. I voted in 1976 for progressive to vote the nationalist party out. Wake up guys do your homework stop listening to your own folklore, go on to google or buy a history book and try reading it😂

[@Sifisomabanga]

😄😄😄😄 Not only buy a history book but try reading it as well..... I love this.

[@user-hg3ne4ub8d]

DA mainly white IFP mainly Zulus ANC mostly black of RSA VF+ Afrikaners Jama3a Muslims MK Zulus

[@Jahhhhh-jx8rw]

there are not enough white people in the country to make it the second largest party, DA have a mixed bag of voters. Whites make up 7% of the country’s population and when you split is between Afrikaaners and English it’s even smaller

[@angiemac8066]

Politicians/Party leaders across the board must stop their divisive bs!!

[@truth-Hurts375]

Why ???? Go live in Orania !!!!

[@shanaazcloete8531]

People will vote for you irrespective of race, if you create jobs(not cheap labour) and governed well for all.

[@ortforshort7652]

South Africa needs to start moving forward. It's been thirty years since the end of apartheid and South African government has not only not moved forward an inch but has regressed to the point where we are in danger of becoming another Zimbabwe. We're all in this together and the racial designations of parties and racial divides of parties don't help. After thirty years, it's time for whites to start working with blacks and indians and others to start making this country better for everyone. And the same holds true for blacks and Indians. There are a percentage of blacks who want to kick out the whites and Indians and have a black only nation. As long as they have that in their heads, nothing good is going to happen in South Africa. Everyone needs to be pulling in the same direction and working together if anythnig positive is to be done. The last thirty years has marked the country pulling in different directions which has only dragged it down. We need to be attracting investment into the country to grow jobs and we need to be spreading the wealth, particularly the new found income from the investments equitably. The main objective is to grow the economy which helps everybody and the main co-objective is to get that new found wealth to the majority of people to start pulling everyone out of poverty and into a prosperous working class. Can't do any of that if we're divided. We can only dream that GNU is the vehicle to start making this all happen

[@rabbinick8989]

Only Africans are rushed to move forward and move on but countries outside like Israel, Ukraine,south Korea, Taiwan etc they don't get rushed at all actually they are encouraged to fight their social issues as long as it takes.

[@mtizirawaylernyika7653]

But do you know what makes SA the next Zimbabwe

[@skywalker7778]

What rubbish saying "we're all in this together" WTF?

[@ortforshort7652]

@@rabbinick8989 Nobody is rushing you anywhere. If you want this country to improve, we work together. You want this country to continue going down the toilet, keep doing the same old sh*t that got us here. Go where you want, to a good place or the toilet, your option and don't rush.

[@ortforshort7652]

@@mtizirawaylernyika7653 SA is the next Zimbabwe if it keeps doing what it's been doing for the last thirty years - not a damn thing.

[@MartinEngelbrecht-ey3rl]

The issue must be 41 million potential voters, 27 million registered, 15 million voted.

[@nxumalonkululeko4198]

People voted were above 20 millions, votes were rigged. Those numbers were designed

[@glynisstevens7638]

Nonsense the brits still treat us as immigrants. I live inbthe uk

[@nosiphosobekwa9316]

I think DA is becoming more African than before. Impressive.

[@bevturner2258]

Impressive since their leaders are almost exclusively from the small white minority.

[@JohanThiart]

It will be interesting to follow how the ANC protests voters, that “abandoned” the party at this election, breaks at the next election. I think the MK party may well be a one election wonder.

[@bevturner2258]

@@JohanThiart The Zulu voters only voted ANC when Zuma was leader of the ANC. Now MK has taken those voters they’ll stay with Zuma. IFP is stronger than in 2019, so the Zulus are voting along ethnic lines.

[@JohanThiart]

@@bevturner2258 I can understand why will think like that. But I predict that some traditional ANC voters will now find it easier to vote with the brains. Many may well realise that they can make their vote work for them and that it is not compulsory to vote for the ANC. Time will tell.

[@bevturner2258]

@@JohanThiart I think the ANC / DA marriage will lose voters for both parties. They have always been in opposition and now they’ll be forced to compromise. DA will lose votes to PA and FF+ and ANC will lose votes to MK and EFF. I predict ANC will be around 30% in 2029. As you say, time will tell. We’re certainly living in interesting times 😊

[@karinak9465]

Thanks for this. When can we listen Dr Frans Cronje’s thoughts again?

[@obySedgefieldgemofourgardenrou]

Surely when government doesnt and cant deliver we should rid our country of this liability, there are much better / more cost effective ways to manage rsa.we must start looking at other options.

[@RazoMarazo]

This is the person perhaps can help us how the IEC works and came about this results

[@neilneil9089]

The DA will win if it finds a way to move the majority into the middle class rapidly and then uses powerful marketing. New Deal policies...NOT neoliberalism.

[@MBReader410]

Yes. Forget culture wars. Foreground land and housing reform.

[@MBReader410]

And need to get real, DA does need black leaders to grow.

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

I haven't seen a recent survey on this but a while ago one was done on the education levels and income of supporters of different political parties. Needless to say , people with higher education levels and income tend to vote DA , with those at the other end of the scale voting EFF. So you're correct , the better educated and wealthy our population is , the better the DA will perform

[@thomasprogli3372]

@@MBReader410 "And need to get real, DA does need black leaders to grow." ... well the biggest problem here is that most blacks are indoctrinated with extreme left wing ideology. That is why it is so hard to grow the black voter base unless the DA gets a chance to govern them and they see the fundamental difference.

[@truth-Hurts375]

​@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ubKak praat nie ....What you are telling us is that Whites are still swimming in a pool of money 30years after the end of Apartheid. How many White People vote other than DA ???? A handfull...and you know that !!!!

[@slimjim161616]

Alec, your Introduction was fantastically duplicitous... how dare you be astounded about our fascination with race, you; a white man in his 60s who was likely a young army constricting the roaring 70s/80s... your youngest kids are allowed to be fascinated but not you, my good Sir. I'll steer clear of your subsequent comme t about the Brits

[@kidcharlemagne9139]

The DA secured nearly 60% of their vote from 7% of the population. The ANC received 98% of their vote from 82% of the population. It's accurate to say that the DA primarily appeals to white voters, notwithstanding their efforts to dispel the notion of being a white party. It doesn't help that their senior leadership is also majority white. Racial demographics in leadership structures influence voting patterns. The DA struggles with this concept and proffers meritocracy and non-racialism as counter-arguments despite election results plateauing in the early twenties. There are tens of millions of black South Africans, so why doesn't the DA wade deeper into that stupendous talent pool?

[@shanaazcloete8531]

DA broad based voters, Parliament MP's however does not reflect that. We know all about Zille's ' Merit' criteria. Musi Maimaine spilled it all in an interview.

[@rishonmoodley8622]

Zillebis a typical African “leader” wants to cling to power indefinitely and feels the DA belongs to her

[@bakielbenshomriel6466]

Wow 👌🏿 I learned so much here thank you 😊

[@pamelaleibowitz3019]

Thank you for this information !

[@sabanyboy9098]

Guys you obfuscate. Ask the right question.. How many Whites in SA vote for black parties.

[@lynnetheron]

Why is that the "right question". South Africans should be voting for the party that they believe will supply services, provide jobs, improve the economy etc etc. Not Race. I am white, and the first time I ever voted was for the ANC nationally and IFP provincial. But based on their performance, my vote has changed, obviously, and it has nothing to do with Race.

[@mpetersen9825]

The UK is very much a racists country. I don't know how you can say there are no racism in the UK

[@jennychurchill2716]

Nope you , (not Gary)are 100 percent wrong. Move over there for a few years and see.

[@user-ix2ox4fm9d]

I'm English living in SA and believe me there are about 56 different nationalities living there and the Indians and Africans have taken their cultures with them and the UK as a whole is starting to look like a rubbish dump. If Palestinians protest that's fine but when the indigenous wants to just have a patriotic get together then there's hundreds of police out looking for a reason to arrest people if they should wave the British flag. You are so wrong.

[@jennychurchill2716]

@@user-ix2ox4fm9d yes the Brits must stand up and defend their culture.

[@richardedkins8856]

Great interview.

[@vuyoboltina1617]

The subject is indeed complex, and data alone cannot fully capture its nuances. Typically, what is recognized as a "Black Institution" sees fewer white attendees/Patronage, whereas "White Churches" do not generally experience the same hesitation from Black attendees/Patronage. The crossover in Institution attendance/Patronage tends to be more significant in one direction than the other. This observation highlights a noteworthy disparity in the interaction between these communities

[@christinefinniss6263]

Great interview. 🤙

[@joannebottcher9779]

Interesting topic. One nation! 🇿🇦

[@sheilariekert9019]

One explanation is that the White population is shrinking compared to the rest increasing is because we understand that if we cannot be employed due to being White i.e. BBBEE etcetera then we cannot afford to have children.

[@sophon238]

It's easier to think like that if you come from a rich or middle class background. You have something to lose by breeding when your fiscal projections are uncertain. Those born in poverty have nothing to lose by acting irresponsibly.

[@SS-xt4kh]

Myopic and dishonest explanation. White population is not shrinking but growing at a lower rate than other race groups. Hence, its overall % share is diluted. Unemployment is the highest among the other race groups. Whites are mostly employed. Subdued population growth is seen in developed economies where there is no BBBEE. An indication that the white population is developed, hence population growth follows similar trends as developed economies.

[@lynnetheron]

​@sophon238 I agree. I've had first-hand experience of witnessing, day after day, year after year, for 24 years, at a government clinic, very young single women falling pregnant, not because they planned their pregnancy or that their living circumstances were ideal for child rearing. I really hope that the children of these moms grow up with good opportunities for a better life for themselves.

[@WarNeverChanges9191]

If the DA do more work in townships then that black votes will greatly increase, I hope they focus a lot of their attention towards those communities. The only problem is that people in those communities tend to turn down people in blue shirts or anyone part of DA.

[@joecruiser]

ANC is monochrome. Happily living in Apartment 2.0 1st on the Left! Led by someone that desperately needs a Pair.

[@vuyoboltina1617]

To better understand party demographics, we could compare the provided graphs to South African demographic data. By analyzing which party's demographics most closely reflect the overall makeup of South Africa, we can determine whether a party predominantly appeals to black or white communities. Abnormal proportions in the party graphs can provide additional insights into this dynamic.

[@MkuluClive-ls5qj]

It's more about a different culture and between different groupings.

[@melissacunningham7848]

Very interesting

[@CeciliaAdrio-ek5iq]

It's amazing how the Good party enjoying to bring some critical remark against the D.A.now it's Soo conspicuous working for ANC and all the perks!!! 😅😂 Never says a bad comment bout ANC 👺 n Phala Phala 🤔😁🤬

[@mrm7505]

Ask Maimane and Mashaba?

[@lesekari]

The DA needs to stop playing and attract black voters. If the ANC has been as successful as it is it is in part because of the DA.

[@HunterMoonPodcast]

But guys, I hear what you sre saying, but I'm still aghastly waiting for data on the fact that a lot pf voters were not aware they could not vote where they stay. And I wonder what migrant labour looks like across the country in terms of racial dynamics. We have to be honest or rather methodical when dealing with data.

[@marlak4253]

Its amazing that the DA party recieved much more of the black vote than both EFF and the MK parties who presumably represent the interests of the legacy of disinfranchised poor black voters.

[@MkuluClive-ls5qj]

The different tribes even vote for different parties.

[@_moonopoly]

Most people do not vote based on their ethnic group. The only provinces you can make an argument for are KZN and WC.

[@PatPat-by5uj]

Reparations = justice. Reparations will never go away

[@Scott.Silburn]

The ANC sees only one pie and it wants the whole thing! To me the results show how small is the group that understands the problem and wants to fix it... I think it's wise to accept that we now truly do live in Africa... SA will never again be the country it was, but there's doubtless still a space for all the groups to live as long as radical populism doesn't rare its ugly head...

[@pamelaleibowitz3019]

kid Charlemagne the DA is represents all groups It is the only party that does !!!!

[@bevturner2258]

How can it be representative of the people if all the leaders are White? Whites make up just 7.3% of the population.

[@KillmongerWasRight45]

(😂 Oh god i know i shouldnt laugh) The DA respresents their own interest the places they control speaks this in spades dont take my word just...look at what they do instead of say

[@lynnetheron]

​@@KillmongerWasRight45I think rather that the DA represents the citizens living in areas under DA control with services. Other parties just want the salary the taxpayer pays to be in government but do nothing for the people.

[@rishonmoodley8622]

Racialists will never depend on facts,,,,!

[@thomasprogli3372]

I think the blacks should be split up in Zulus and others as this a major differentiating factor. Zulus have never been loyal to the ANC. The only voted for the ANC when Zuma was the leader. I think that the IFP could become a 15% party again.

[@SS-xt4kh]

Misplaced analysis. DA is not white by votes but by politics and representation.

[@nomadicleopard]

How can politics be "white"?

[@markriordan9010]

So I'm wondering at what point people will drop the "DA is a White party" thing....60% Black....70%...80% ? I mean it's really gonna sound funny calling a party with 60-odd percent Black support, a "White" party.

[@SS-xt4kh]

@@nomadicleopard define politics

[@bevturner2258]

Yes, the DA is represented by white leaders, so the perception is of a white party.

[@user-rj4dr6bt6m]

The DA is labelled White by the 'aparatchiks' of the communist comrades ... in order to keep Black voters captured, within the confines of racist, communist ideology.

[@jennychurchill2716]

DA deserves to rule as it is the fairest party by far

[@Codydoggy]

It’s a third white

[@obySedgefieldgemofourgardenrou]

W

[@hanshuman1382]

I do not see race.

[@tam1641]

What do you see sir ?

[@johan1944]

IN RSA YOU MUST BE A CRIMINAL TO BE A MEMBER OF THE GOVERNMENT, WE IN AMERICA 🇺🇸 WE LAUGHING AT THE RSA😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@user-jv6hd6do1f]

😂Really😂 Joe 😂

[@nicholasmbatha1202]

Congratulations

[@michellerobertson3268]

This is funny?

[@EdmundWilliamWessels]

I'm a South African and I'm laughing at your so-called leaders too. It looks like the whole world have a problem with idiots.

[@benjaminlabuschagne9101]

Johan in in America ..... you sure of your comment here, just look at the mess USA is in .....n fokop in the making !!! ...... sorry for you.😮

[@lesliecarels1078]

How do you get to this outcome if my name or race is not on the ballot. You clearly have no clue who I voted for and why.

[@bevturner2258]

Gareth explains very clearly…

[@jeannedebeer]

You get the racial demographics from the census roll by suburb and voting district

[@Sp8e]

You only need to look at it's leaders. To make that call. Not voter trends. People are simply trying many alternatives since the ANC failed. You are using a wrong determininant.

[@CelestinedonoughCelestine]

He fails to mentioned there is disconnect between who voted for DA and who gets the political appointments ,it will be fascinating to see the DA appointments ,positions within. The adminstration it controls and what the demographic is. I for one would like to see that data , that will go along way to dispel my fears ,a party who believes that others have no right to political power or have a political vioce is suspect ,but I have no evidence other Zille outburst about the PA

[@CelestinedonoughCelestine]

Second most important thing ,read Trevor Manual book .how whites undermine the ANC administration in the last GNU ,can u imagine that scenario and risks to ANC

[@tombimashri8149]

Majority Zulu s are Coloureds. They r mixed race which is termed Coloured in RSA. Mixed in Uk, halfcaste in Nigeria, Biaracial in USA, Molato in Spain South America etc but all this set of people are One. There s a reason why some hide these facts guess to fit in nd be accepted by their Black cousins

[@tanakat7376]

Did they just get two white people to discuss whether the DA is a white Party? Like are you guys even trying?? 😂😂

[@andrewgreener]

Following your logic, then two black people may not discuss if the ANC is a black party?

[@mponengjoe9075]

No DA is not racist bcos they have black members who voted for them.remember the popular phrase"I have got black friends".😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@tanakat7376]

​@@andrewgreenerif they are going to make the point that the ANC is not a black party I think they should have one none black person (or any one who genuinely believes the ANC isn't a black person). My point is they do not acknowledge the real arguments of people that feel the DA is a white party here partly because they are both white and do not understand them. It will shock most black people that the issue of representation in the party's leadership wasn't really raised when it is the key reason the party is seen as racist.

[@user-pd2zv8ov9y]

Oh bugger, get real, when will you folks belt up with your apartheid/racist rubbish. You are obviously pro apartheid, because colour seem to fill your small mindset interest, with all due respect. Please can we grow up and move on to UNITY in this lovely land.

[@intellifly747]

Are you a dictator?

[@bongoseakhoa5092]

So the vf+ was left out of this analysis to paint a certain narrative 😂

[@bevturner2258]

It’s a very small minority party

[@bongoseakhoa5092]

@@bevturner2258 then there would have been no use talking about bosa rize mzansi and the ifp right what's good for the goose should be great for the gander but not one word is hilarious.

[@bevturner2258]

@@bongoseakhoa5092 You’re right, BOSA and Rise shouldn’t have entered the conversation 😊 IFP is certainly large enough to be a player.

[@bongoseakhoa5092]

@@bevturner2258 I appreciate you, this episode whatever it is feels like "emotional padding" for DA supporters like hey look we are a more "rainbow" nation than the others. Well, guess what if you want to run this country then by all metrics you should and always will need a black majority and the DA's inability to attract black voters is costing it more than the Kumbaya narrative is benefiting them.

[@FarberBob678]

The VF+ got 1.5% percent of the vote, and white people are 7% of the population. There are a significant party among the white minority

[@demforextrading3353]

The DA's problem is racist view on the party, why? Because disadvantaged Black people doesn't feel the socio-economic effects being improved under DA leadership. Yes, some might get jobs and a better service delivery than ANC, but it's much deeper than that: Policing, programs in poor communities, education for black schools, etc, versus contribution to the White agenda, totally different.

[@corneliacoetz243]

Its your views, not DA's !!

[@shirleyolivier2313]

The ANC has done such a wonderful job in the last 30 years, improving the lives of black people.

[@Potjie57]

Were there any forensic audits done on the software used in the voting process to ensure that there was no tampering done. It is a relatively easy process to tamper with the program to rig votes.

[@gerhardtvanhuyssteen4492]

MAAK NIE SAAK WATSE REGERING ONS HET NIE......DIT GAN NIE STOP WAT KOM NIE DIE VIERKLEUR KOM

[@mburumbaappolus6728]

A Cambridge L.M.Juris and D.Juris from Cambridge University and they focus on what he may done (non-criminal). And Dr Hlope's so-called "ethical conduct"...what does it relate to (judges talking amongst themselves!!!). Plus no one speaks of former dismissed NPA prosecutor Glynnis Breytenbach now a DA MP.

[@andrewgreener]

You mean the judge that tried to bribe two constitutional court judges to favour Zuma

[@heatherstrang5577]

She was cleared of all charges.

[@0761ZoRO]

Hypocrisy of the highest order. They won't succed😂

[@0761ZoRO]

​​@@heatherstrang5577Malema and Floyd have been cleared of all VBS bank and racist accusations but you people keep labelling them as thieves and racists. So, you also know there is such a phrase as being 'cleared of all of charges'?😂

[@heatherstrang5577]

@@0761ZoRO I haven't labeled them as anything so don't refer toe me as "you people". Malema openly states he wants to cut the throats of whiteness which means he's openly declaring himself as a racist. There are many points he makes that I agree with but on the whole I see him as a loose cannon which doesn't bode well for this country.

[@Jadamema28]

I called it ANC EFF PA IFP.... WILL FORM.

[@ThembaTsela]

You spread WMC propaganda

[@angelyeager1644]

Almal het pro brobleem met DA hoekom

[@maxmax2678]

The DA, which is the remnant of the old evil apartheid regime is definitely not the substitute for the ANC if indigenous South Africans want a better life.

[@intellifly747]

Well at least the blacks and coloureds in the Western Cape are enjoying 20% unemployment and the domkops under ANC provinces have more than 30% unemployment. But it seems like you will rather keep yourself and your people poor instead of admitting defeat

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

No , the origins of the DA come from an anti-apartheid movement. Our education system has failed you.

[@bryancoulter5998]

What rubbish troll.

[@christinemeyer7163]

go do your homework--DA is the outcome of the old party that was AGAINST apartheid!.Go read about Helen Zille--she was a journalist AGAINST apartheid!

[@metalcake2288]

​@@christinemeyer7163 you're responding to a bot...