Going Deep on Carlos Santana and the First Base Market, Trade Ideas for Outfield, JUCO Ruling Effect

[@louisminati]

Thanks for the good shows all year

[@LockedonGuardians]

Thanks for watching!

[@cjfrankowski5381]

Merry Christmas and happy new year Jeff!

[@LockedonGuardians]

You too, and happy holidays!

[@DavidLane-so1fk]

Thanks Geoff, superb once again, have a superb new year 👍

[@LockedonGuardians]

thanks hope yours was great to

[@zivohel]

Jeff Loved your point about spending versus other teams in the same situation

[@LockedonGuardians]

thank you it was something that need to be brough tup

[@zivohel]

@@LockedonGuardians For sure and it was great to hear.

[@davidvankirk7721]

Great point regarding arbitration and not wanting to argue a case with Naylor. Great case. Especially, if bad blood occurred, that could affect Bo attitude towards the Cleveland office.😂

[@LockedonGuardians]

That's a great point it would have lasting effects

[@siegewithme]

Great solo ep Jeff! Hope you had a great Christmas 💚

[@LockedonGuardians]

Appreciate it. Thanks for watching!

[@silassnyder9183]

You are the man Jeff. Happy Holidays

[@LockedonGuardians]

Thanks for the kind words and hope you have had a great holiday

[@craigwelch3721]

Nice show Jeff

[@LockedonGuardians]

thank you

[@BlooketWarriorYT]

I think some prospects needs to be called up as in Chase DeLauter as an outfielder. We’ll see what happens with the rest of the season with him

[@davidwindell]

@BlooketWarriorYT chase will be up no later than June 1 if he’s healthy

[@BlooketWarriorYT]

@@davidwindell yeah

[@LockedonGuardians]

Just needs the reps

[@dbcollings5739]

Merry Christmas Jeff. Keep bringing the baseball talk strong in 2025!

[@LockedonGuardians]

thanks man hope you enjoy it

[@tomvann4388]

Great show. Happy New Year!

[@LockedonGuardians]

Thank you, you too!

[@chiefwahoo7734]

I really think the naylor trade / santana pickup is something that only time will tell… I can see both having sub-par seasons or both having good seasons (maybe Naylor having another all-star season) but I love the point you made about depriving the Twins and Seattle from a 1b and trading him to the NL

[@LockedonGuardians]

thanks I can see it being anywhere from a big win to a big loss such a wide range on it, but thanks for the comment on my idea had not seen it elsewhere

[@patbittinger9315]

Morning Jeff. Love the show.

[@LockedonGuardians]

thanks you

[@jffagan]

Fantastic show Jeff. Love the trade idea with Miami even though Donovan and Ward would be my hopes.

[@LockedonGuardians]

my hopes as well, but got to find solid pieces where you can

[@dennisquigney3809]

Are there any starting pitchers you would like to see get a non roster invite to spring training out there (ex. Tyler Alexander)? I think this would make for a good episode and great "roster fodder"

[@LockedonGuardians]

Turnbull and Sanchez for me

[@AndrewPolander]

Great Job Jeff...always remember in the words of the late great Pete Franklin...it's PITCHING,PITCHING and more PITCHING!!!!!!! I really like what we've done and I really believe the Guards KNOW PITCHING!!!!

[@LockedonGuardians]

That's the ticket pitching is so expensive that they had to find ways to add it outside of FA

[@GuardianofClevelandHeights]

Great job as always! I think I missed it though: your right field platoon was who and Noel for 25 dingers?

[@LockedonGuardians]

Sanchez

[@GuardianofClevelandHeights]

@ thanks!!

[@wombat7366]

A Sanchez and Weathers deal sounds like a low risk move that could help at 2 key spots.

[@LockedonGuardians]

That's my feel too

[@scotthauser5341]

Any thoughts on signing Kahnle and trading one of the current relievers as part of a package for an outfielder?

[@LockedonGuardians]

I thought kanhle signed I could be wrong I still think trading a reliever makes sense if you can land an outfielder and don't need to sign anyone to replace the guy you sign thanks to depth

[@michaelskotnicki3148]

Anyone with eyes can see that Naylor was 30 pounds overweight and its easy to conclude his lousy second-half of the season was the result of that weight wearing on him. At least he has an opportunity to get in shape for another team to start the saeason and earn that $12 million salary. A trade is often a wake-up call for players.

[@LockedonGuardians]

he looked bigger as the year went which leads one to wonder about the second half decline

[@Cheeksmalone74]

Musical Chairs is the name of the game with Music, and Chairs. Hahaha, I do appreciate how much you and Justin own everything good and bad. Someone had mentioned that the Guards were in talks with Goldschmidt before he signed with NYY. I am wondering if Santana is able to help Manzardo and Noel with 1B Defense? Swing decisions are tough to change, but would Santana be able to show them the blue print or give them different perspective on 1B defense?

[@LockedonGuardians]

That's a good call defense is teachable just in terms of positioning though reads are also hard to teach

[@teambigv]

The Cardinals are saying they're not interested in trading Fedde now. I don't think anybody is buying into that. Fedde struggled a few games after being traded to the Cardinals, but settled in nicely after that. I think Bloom would take a return for Fedde like Cleveland got back in the Naylor trade for Fedde. Gorman can play 2nd base he is just so-so there he can also play 3rd I believe that's his original position when he got drafted. Like you said he strikeouts way too much. I would probably avoid him. Great show and I hope you're getting some rest over the Christmas break. My wife use to be a Teacher I know how stressful that job can be.

[@LockedonGuardians]

I think Fedde is more there type just due to how much Gorman Ked last year, curious to see if they switch to shopping other players as Nolan seems like he is staying

[@rokular01]

I think something to remember that there is a worse case scenario where Santana regresses a bit but is still a viable platoon with Manzardo at 1B

[@mrcommonsense9074]

You make a good point . But Major League Baseball is extremely hard to succeed at . There’s going to be some massive growing pains . To the point that we don’t even know who’s good . Baseball is crazy .

[@LockedonGuardians]

For sure that's barring injury the worst case scenario

[@lukechristian8745]

I think this might actually be the plan and part of the reason they felt ok trading Naylor

[@jameskeene4412]

I do take your point on Naylor’s issues and of the two moves (Josh and Andres) I am most sympathetic to for Josh move. Carlos was about as good and Josh has warts I am deeply skeptical they just traded him to avoid arbitration that seems like it’s overstating the case

[@LockedonGuardians]

I think they traded him for pitching depth but I don't think avoiding arb was one of many factors that lead them to shop him

[@robertkelleyroth409]

A big part of this is the cost for free agent starting pitchers. Just prohibitive. Getting a pair of controllable starters through trades is about as good as you can do.

[@LockedonGuardians]

I think that is a really good point.

[@Kenny-km8rc]

Just curious Will Naylor go to arbitration with the Diamonds or have they already signed him to,a contract. Anyway I’m ok with the trade

[@LockedonGuardians]

They might sign before hand but looks like arb potentially

[@Kenny-km8rc]

@ Thank you

[@lukechristian8745]

Musical chairs Jeff! Musical chairs!

[@LockedonGuardians]

it was that easy and my brain was cramped

[@markokuhar670]

Give me Jesus Sanchez and Erick Fedde and I’ll be very optimistic about this team next year

[@LockedonGuardians]

I would be happy too feels like it raises the floor

[@Dnlsx777]

Just musical chairs 😊

[@LockedonGuardians]

Man what a brain cramp

[@bigredd1574]

Santana is the new Giambi Napoli guy...

[@LockedonGuardians]

He has had more recent success then those dudes had when brought in

[@bigredd1574]

@@LockedonGuardians he brings the missing vet leadership.

[@jameskeene4412]

I don’t mean to always be dissenting and I don’t think you are shills. You provide good analysis and I appreciate it But stating the Guardisns spent money this off season is miss representing the case. Overall our payroll is less than it was last year according to Cots Baseball contracts (by about $8M) and as you point out: the Carlos and Josh swap is about neutral. So is the Shane Bieber-Andres swap Sure they may have spent more than other teams but on net they’re a cheaper team and their payroll is smaller than the twins, Padres and brewers.

[@LockedonGuardians]

They also have a smaller market then those and there is time to spend but you are right they should at least hold even and not drop in payroll I am willing to give it time

[@Bucknut9828]

What would it take to get fedde? Cardinals taking offers. He is cheap for a year

[@LockedonGuardians]

they want to quasi contend it feels so likely a young arm back and maybe a lotto ticket

[@patricktylerdilalla5398]

Gaddis for Taylor Ward. Fair deal or who says no?

[@davidwindell]

@@patricktylerdilalla5398 I hope Cleveland does. The value elite relievers carry these days is significantly higher than platoon OFs. I’d want a prospect in LAA’s top 10 if that happened.

[@LockedonGuardians]

I think gaddis has more value but Justin and I debated this very trade multiple times

[@coltone3251]

I'm not trying to sound like a broken record, but does anyone else feel like we should have gotten more for both players?

[@LockedonGuardians]

I mean when you look at what Lowe netted and I am shocked by how much they got for gimmy

[@dennisquigney3809]

Seattle has a handful of lumbering dudes on their team; Luke Raley, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger. Can none of these guys play first base?

[@davidwindell]

@@dennisquigney3809 Raley can, he’s just not any good

[@LockedonGuardians]

They didn't think so

[@davidwindell]

@@LockedonGuardians thought he played some 1B with the Reds

[@sonic-qh7ed]

trade for fedde and get another bat and then we can c how that works till season opener

[@LockedonGuardians]

sounds good to me

[@forceman4795]

There is a slightly disengenious part of the they have spent 27 million in the fact they’ve subtracted 22 million along with money in future years. Yes have they technically spent 27 but context for that matters. It’s not 27 addition million it’s 5 million additional spending while opening up a hole at 2nd base. That’s peoples problems with all of this. Prospects are unproven commodities and needing to just sit back hug them and pray they work out when Cleveland has struggled to develop hitters over the last 10 years is why people are critical

[@smokey_gator_239]

Hahaha, committed 27 million....after they traded the RT side of the infield and 24 million off the books. Naylor 14 and Gimi 10. And another good point you made, what about the 96 million over 3 years for Gimi? Will there be a reinvestment into roster? I will guess not to that extent.

[@forceman4795]

@ yes if there whole idea of reinvesting the Andres money to essentially spend 5 million this year on Hedges and a half a year of Bieber to lose Gimenez that’s an incredibly hard sell. To a fanbase yes your not shedding salary but your also not really adding to it. In any sort of way that’s guaranteed to more then break even

[@LockedonGuardians]

they did subtract money thats fair but the spending is still something that most teams in their situation did not do

[@davidwindell]

I’m so tired of the “Dolan is cheap” trope. Dolan is smart, not cheap. He was one of the first to realize that post-arbitration free agents are one of the worst ways an MLb team can spend. FO salaries, scouting, player development, draft money, and international free agents all impact winning more than FA spending and Dolan doesn’t rank behind many owners (if any) in spending in these areas. Cleveland spends where they can get the most impactful players, not where they can make the most headlines. And FWIW, Noel won’t be on the 26 man roster come the end of the season IMO. Noel isn’t going to magically make better swing decisions.

[@shabushaburo]

I agree with you over the long term, Dolan and the rest of the front office have made great decisions and markedly improved the team over the last ~10 years, but you cannot deny the Dodgers strategy of hoovering up every star they could get in contact with paid off for them

[@davidwindell]

@ that’s the one obnoxious example of where, if you simply keep spending and spending, you’re bound to get a couple guys who make a big impact on winning. Unfortunately, only 2-3 teams in the sport are capable of doing that (Dodgers and Mets for sure, but it looks more and more like the Yankees even have a limit). For every single other team, spending $20-25m on a 2-4 WAR player simply doesn’t help your team win as much as most fans believe.

[@shabushaburo]

​@davidwindell You're 100% right. It didn't pay off for the Mets last year and frankly I don't know if it will this year. Time will tell! Every other team is playing chess, Dodgers and Mets are walking up to the table and flipping the board.

[@sly0422]

Yeah, Holding players in the minors for every ounce of control and then never paying the players when they are in their prime unless they take a discount is so smart 🤣. I’d call that cheap. If Jose didn’t take the pay cut and we traded him people would find some way to justify it and say we won the trade cause we win 86 games every year and lose in the playoffs.

[@davidwindell]

@@sly0422 you do a decent job at parroting popular, but very ignorant, takes on this team. First off, winning 86 games every year and making the playoffs would be an absolute dream come true for 22-25 other fanbases in the sport. Second, every single team in baseball, including the Yankees and Dodgers, manipulates MiLB time to maximize team control. Every SINGLE team. If anything the Guardians do it less than average because they have such a high dependency on the farm system. Pitching prospects fly through the system at one of the fastest rates in baseball. Finally, you cannot argue with the success this team has had when it comes to trading players nearing arbitration. I’m sure you whined about Civale, but today would you rather have an exceptional 1B/DH or a pitcher making $15m to give you a 5.50 ERA? How about Clevinger? Or Kluber? The Naylor deal had nothing to do with money, as the team is paying Los more than what Naylor makes. It had to do with a guy whose production was plummeting due to poor conditioning and having a chance to replace him with a very similar offensive player, improving the defense, and picking up a pitching asset and a high draft pick in the process. People like you see that as “dumping salary”, while smart baseball people see that as limiting downside risk and maintaining MLB production while acquiring assets. One of those perspectives is lazy and ignorant, the other is nuanced and leads to success. Glad this FO always has the latter view.

[@MassillonObie]

Walk-Tana.

[@LockedonGuardians]

well done

[@reddykc2k4]

Just giving me a link to an article showing estimated 2024 revenues that didn’t even include post season shares and perhaps revenue sharing figures doesn’t mean anything. I did the detailed analysis and using conservative estimates, the team made $350-$400m in 2024. $150m payroll for this team is break even worst case, the team even got considerable funds for stadium renovations. Don’t give this team an out for lying to us.

[@LockedonGuardians]

They are nowhere near 400 mil Travis sawchuck did a piece on it

[@reddykc2k4]

@ did Travis state all revenue streams included and how he derived his figures? So Corbin Burnes goes to the Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendricks to sign him and then he green lights a payroll increase to $193m? The Arizona market is above Cleveland, but they have local TV issues as well. Why can Arizona do this and we cant even spend to $150-$170m range while we are in a contention window? This team can easily afford a $150m payroll. The team was fielding $70-$90m payrolls mid 90’s- early 2000’s. Inflation alone and passive investment income returns in the 2020’s makes fielding a modern day $100m payroll laughable.