Grand National Tips & Trends

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Cheltmental

Cheltmental

Ай бұрын

gg.co.uk/news/betting/grand-n...

Пікірлер: 192
@martingundry4454
@martingundry4454 Ай бұрын
Been hooked to your channel since Cheltenham. Great content and followed your tips ever since. Detailed insight.👍
@AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
@AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me Ай бұрын
Great work Dave love the videos u put lot effort in mate
@declanobrien5242
@declanobrien5242 Ай бұрын
Fair play to you for doing all that research
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
The Grand National is the easiest race to make a profit on. So many once a year gamblers, so many don't understand how the race has changed, so many mug punters following "trends".... "It wants to be 8 or 9 years old". These two ages have enormously outnumbered those younger and older... Therefore you can expect more 8 and 9 year olds to have won the Grand National.... Also, since the needed changes to the fences, trainers have been running more younger horses. More 7 year olds running means there will be more 7 year olds winning the Grand National than there used to be.
@scottburgess1477
@scottburgess1477 Ай бұрын
Welcome back Dave can't wait to see what's coming up for spring.
@conormccaffrey3190
@conormccaffrey3190 Ай бұрын
Great info. Totally agree about Panda Boy, cliff horse
@NinjaSquirrel30
@NinjaSquirrel30 Ай бұрын
Good luck & enjoy the racing 🐎
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
Thanks, very interesting ! 👍
@AVhelly
@AVhelly Ай бұрын
Happy Easter Dave 🐰🐣
@racingtees4519
@racingtees4519 Ай бұрын
Coach Rambler with a stone more in his back over that 4 miles. It HAS to take it's tole at some point
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
Yes, tho he had a very hard race in the Ch. Gold Cup, it can take it's toll.
@markluxon5044
@markluxon5044 Ай бұрын
I was there on gold cup day. Walking back down the chute after the race he was exhausted
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
"At some point" yes. Once he's been given enough. But Corach Rambler won last year with a lot more in hand than it might look, because he idles quite badly when in front. Difficult for the handicapper to know how much he had in hand... And has proved he's worthy of a far bigger weight by improving his form to be 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup... Coming into this race again as the best handicapped horse in the field. ie His improvement means he is more than capable of carrying the greater weight.
@trevormeeks4084
@trevormeeks4084 Ай бұрын
Only 3 of the top 6 are running this year so if you ignore vanillier he won't get round twice it's between the two previously winners not a lot between them this year but if it's a slog PANDA BOY. STATLER and MISTER INCREDIBLE MUST ALL GO CLOSE
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
​@anjou6497 I think that's his biggest issue. The Gold cup tires horses
@user-oo6hw8jc6x
@user-oo6hw8jc6x Ай бұрын
Great work as always dave
@bernardmckey9396
@bernardmckey9396 Ай бұрын
Happy Easter Dave
@alanrichardson4477
@alanrichardson4477 Ай бұрын
Limerick Lace the most underrated horse in the market
@walshie2639
@walshie2639 Ай бұрын
On at 40s. Has massive chance
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
​​@@walshie2639 Maybe but unproven to stay , it would be a big risk given how staying is essential. I don't rate the race he won at Cheltenham very much
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
Limerick Lace would have a good chance if staying the trip. Was 2nd to Coko Beach over 3m but is effective at 2m4f. On good-soft maybe would have a chance. However, it looks as though the going will be at least Soft... And although she goes well on that surface it will likely place too much emphasis on stamina.
@michaeloriordan20
@michaeloriordan20 Ай бұрын
@@markchapman2933jumping would be an issue and you have to go back to 1951 for the last time a mare won this I reckon the other JP horse Meetingofthewaters is a good bet 👍🏻
@spindrifter7519
@spindrifter7519 Ай бұрын
Trip??? Age still a bit young. Why push a class horse over the GN so soon in its career? Id be surprised if it actually runs
@johnflanagan7136
@johnflanagan7136 Ай бұрын
Thanks for the info Dave - always like the trend horses 👍 Been backing Kittys Light for a while now and again when it went NRNB - also got Corach from last year and in Dec and also like the trend of Limerick Lace - the 100/1 shots always worth a couple of quid ew with extra places available. Opening a BFair account to add to my other 2 PP/Sky to take advantage of laying horses and covering my bets . Like everything it’s still your choice to follow your advice or not - just gamble sensibly 👍 Look forward to next weeks video as well , recovering from a Hip Op so plenty of time to study the form - best of luck buddy 👍👍
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
Hewick easily won a 4m 2 race (in the USA) on fast ground...watching the footage , i do think he has it in him to win the Grand National on his ground. Smaller horses like Tiger Roll and Red Rum breezed the National. Hewick is 16 hands, ( When tall Shark stands next to him he looks small ! ). I also fancy Ain't that a Shame, Thteeunderthrufire, Kitty's Light and Coko Beach (he may place)....good luck with your hip op recovery and the National. 👍 🌱
@johnflanagan7136
@johnflanagan7136 Ай бұрын
@@anjou6497 thanks for your reply . Good luck with whatever you decide to back , can’t see Threethroughunderfive or whatever it’s called . All your others are decent ew prices ☘️👍
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
@@johnflanagan7136 And you too. 🤞🌿
@WIMBLEDON1992
@WIMBLEDON1992 Ай бұрын
​@@johnflanagan7136 Nicholls took him out the race. Said they were going sandown instead.
@trevormeeks4084
@trevormeeks4084 Ай бұрын
If KITTYS LIGHT wins then the national is finished
@iancrowther6888
@iancrowther6888 Ай бұрын
happy easter Dave
@stephendevine4348
@stephendevine4348 Ай бұрын
Hi Dave, i haven't managed to move on from cheltenham yet, although i do think there are two good bets in the national if the ground came up good in vanillier and chemical energy. Going back to cheltenham, who do you think are going to be the top novice chasers and hurdlers for next years festival
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Majborough, Ballyburn if they go Chasing. Not so sure on chemical energy. He has 9 pounds on mahler mission but mahler mission would have crushed chemical energy had he not fell
@chrisroberts9134
@chrisroberts9134 Ай бұрын
Ironically its much harder to pick the winner of the national since they modified the fences etc.
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
Nah, just as easy.
@bernardmckey9396
@bernardmckey9396 Ай бұрын
I have Corach Rambler at 16/1 Meetinofthewaters 161 Mr Incredible 40/1 Coco Beach 50/1 Chemical Energy 25/1 I am a maximus 12/1
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
So you are on nearly 20 % of the field ? Genius. Here is one certainty for you. FIVE of your horses will not win.
@nickg2117
@nickg2117 Ай бұрын
Fancy Mr Incredible. Ran a good race in last years GN before the saddle slipped. He was warming into it.
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@nickg2117 Messaged my friend who lives near course and he says hes never seen the ground so muddy so Mr Incredible is one of only a few I could back if I was gambling.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
​@@nickg2117I had him last year . So unlucky. Going to be hard though after running in the Midlands grand national.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
I am maximus obvious chances. Similar to Burrows Saint from a previous year. I have him Mr incredible had him last year but could be tough after run in Midlands national. Wouldn't count out but that race may have taken something from him Meetingofthewaters I also have him. Good place in the ultima, looked to stay. Looks to be a good horse, good weight. Question his age and maybe small Question on stamina but did stay in ultima. Coaroch rambler gold cup toll worries. Takes a lot from a horse. Coko beach didn't do well last year and more weight this year. Not for me. Great at 3m but don't think he is a national horse
@AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
@AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me Ай бұрын
I bet him last year Dave but I think this year he had really hard race gold cup this time
@declanobrien5242
@declanobrien5242 Ай бұрын
Panda Boy needs better ground,Desertmore House would be interesting if he got in
@theantepostpunter6925
@theantepostpunter6925 Ай бұрын
I keep coming back to Coko Beach. I get the fact he's been beaten twice in the race, but I think he's matured into a better horse this year and will love the heavy ground. Obviously, he will have to give away a lump of weight, but his run in the beecher and troytown were really solid. He was around a 3/1 shot for the cross county at Cheltenham before they voided the race, and now he is 40/1 here. Massive price.
@spindrifter7519
@spindrifter7519 Ай бұрын
I agree. I just hope the going stays soft. On yesterday @ 40s
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
Coko Beach has led the Grand National field twice and failed to stay twice. Has on a couple of occasions this season been ridden differently. Only racing handily in the Troytown and held up in the Becher... So there is a possibility that with more restraint might stay. But only might. I'd say most likely not. Got there going well enough in the Becher but barely got home over 3m2f. Failing to beat the 11 year old Chambard. The X Country he won in Ireland was 3 miles.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
I don't think he stays. Had chances in English, Irish nationals but no success. Likely same outcome
@trevormeeks4084
@trevormeeks4084 Ай бұрын
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 correct he just doesn't get home and this year's race is. Much better tan last years
@spindrifter7519
@spindrifter7519 Ай бұрын
@@markchapman2933 All valid points. I would just posit that Chambard's performance that day was exceptional, which even vets are capable of once in a blue moon and no doubt the 22lb he received from Coko helped (5lb Claimer as well). Also, Coko won a National Trial comfortably over 28f at Punchestown in Feb '23. (53000 Euro's.) Still, racing is all about opinions & I love the back & forth with knowledgeable folks like you.
@briank6672
@briank6672 Ай бұрын
I like Chemical Energy, I am on at 40/1 ew. I would like the ground to dry up a bit. He runs well fresh.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Good horse clearly after being close to Gallard Du Mesnil but would have been smashed by Mahler mission had he not fell. Mahler mission more weight at 9 pounds but could have the class to overcome that.
@declanobrien5242
@declanobrien5242 Ай бұрын
The Goffer doesnt stay he should run in the Topham Chase
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
The Gopher wont be going anywhere near Aintree if that ground stays as it is today. . Its a bog.
@trevormeeks4084
@trevormeeks4084 Ай бұрын
Aintree soon dries out but the goffer won't stay or win if he started now
@jordanwilson2013
@jordanwilson2013 Ай бұрын
Gambled on it being better ground and went for galvin and desertmore house. Got them both in ew doubles with intense raffles from today so fingers crossed the sun comes out
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
Are you mad ? The National course is an absolute bog right now and rain is forecast every single day. Gambling on the weather when the ground is already heavy ? Clueless.
@ronniefront511
@ronniefront511 Ай бұрын
@@rapidreaperthe ground will be horrendous
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@rapidreaper My mate lives near the Blue Anchor pub. He says its a bog on the national course and pissing down constantly.
@michaeloriordan20
@michaeloriordan20 Ай бұрын
@@rapidreaperit’s soft to heavy at Aintree atm 👍🏻
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
Yes, heavy ground is made for brave Nassalam...watch the weather. 🌦
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Maybe but Welsh national winners don't have a great record in the English grand national
@spindrifter7519
@spindrifter7519 Ай бұрын
Gone up a lot in weight
@paulbest2203
@paulbest2203 Ай бұрын
Think I’ve solved this years puzzle,it’s Janadil ,Delta work each way .Janadil is the one I think will run extremely well
@gordongamble7498
@gordongamble7498 Ай бұрын
corach ramblers races this season mirror last end september november then cheltenham love to see this horse win but weight a worry
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Bigger worry is the toll which the gold cup will have taken out of him. Gold cup takes a lot from a horse.
@mallloyd5551
@mallloyd5551 Ай бұрын
One that I've been keeping a eye on is desertmore house, was entered but pulled out of Irish national needing 7 to come out to even get a run, but has a good ew chance at 40s I think if he gets in, shortened into 33s but back out to 40s today, it's on the cusp, I've got a saver of corach at 20s aswell
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Corach gold cup toll worries. It takes a lot from a horse.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Desertmore appears to have staying chances, signs of staying and low weight. Not had a great season though and cleatus poolaw in second didn't do much at Cheltenham. Desertmore not ruled out but risky based on lack of solid staying abilities. Not for me but maybe has a ew chance. I think you should only back if you think they have a fair chance to win though
@mallloyd5551
@mallloyd5551 Ай бұрын
@nathanwhitehouse8237 yeah I had a small multiple of 3 winners ropey guest 33s ballyburn 7s & lossiemouth at 7/2 running onto corach at 20s, but opted to cash that
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@@mallloyd5551 Lossiemouth Ballyburn should be great horses for the future. Majborough aswell. Sadly mullins doesn't know what to do with Majborough yet.
@mallloyd5551
@mallloyd5551 Ай бұрын
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Willie probably won't know till March 2025 what to do with him
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
"You don't want a horse who's already run in the Grand National and not won". The handicapper (the bloke that allotted the horses their weights) used to give more weight to horses who've run well over the unique Grand National fences. ie If two horses were thought as good as each other but one had run well over the course... then the horse with experience would be effectively punished by being given more weight. The new handicapper no longer does this. So horses with form over the course now have a better chance than previously.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Maybe. End of the day if you can jump well then the fences shouldn't be an issue. They are big but good jumpers will manage. Good jumpers generally use less energy aswell. Irish like using the cross country at Cheltenham to train but it was abandoned so good horses may have not shown their quality yet
@chrismarshall9996
@chrismarshall9996 Ай бұрын
Galia Des Liteaux. 💥
@Sheamus72
@Sheamus72 Ай бұрын
Ive been loading up on him the last few weeks. He’s the pick for me anyways
@chrismarshall9996
@chrismarshall9996 Ай бұрын
@@Sheamus72 He's a She mate 😂👍 Good luck 🤞
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
I haven't backed her but it's Skelton so I wouldn't be too shocked. Low weight feels like a classic Skelton and nice enough price. I do like the race he came 2cnd in at Warwick and the winner went on to get third in the Midlands grand national close behind Mr incredible a horse I think is very good. I backed mr incredible in national last year when his saddle slipped to unseat the rider(so unlucky). Got a chance Galia Des liteux but she must be better than at Exeter
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Forget Exeter, the race came too soon after Warwick and her best form is on left-handed tracks. She stays, she acts well on very soft ground and she jumps well. Can jump boldly, making lengths at her fences. Would like to see her a bit better handicapped but has only run once over an extreme trip so could well improve again. She'd be my best result.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@markchapman2933 Skeltons horses just turn on sometimes so I can easily write off the Exeter run. The rest of the form is good as I mentioned. Probably got fair chance.
@victorygirl77
@victorygirl77 Ай бұрын
Kittys Light at 33/1 for me with wee one on nassalam in case it comes up heavy
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
Always put me off due to its size but has proved me wrong in two big races already and you can plough through the fences now , Only scary fence now is Valentines. Not sure it has class to win a modern National but will stay as for heavy ground ? Make no mistake . the ground could be as bad as bad as its ever been. Its a mud bath now with more rain forecast. Nassalam will be backed.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Great horse but I won't back until we know if decent ground as he likes better ground. Nasaalam good but welsh national winners don't have a great record in the English grand national
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
Nassalam will obviously love bottomless ground. But the Welsh Grand National form is not working out. Did win by a street but the second and third have disappointed since. Iwilldoit won the Welsh Nat' the previous season, but his subsequent form this season suggests he did not run anywhere near his best in third. Nassalam had ground conditions in his favour at Cheltenham and although 3m2f is a bit short for for him these days, should really have done better if he's to defy a mark of 161 at Aintree. Some 16 lbs higher than Chepstow.
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Three winners of Welsh National have won Aintree National at combined odds of 60/1 past 25 years so not strictly true ?
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@@simonchapman5560 3 in 25 years isn't a that great record
@user-xe3ci1op1n
@user-xe3ci1op1n Ай бұрын
Afternoon Dave
@KevinLambeth-hf3yy
@KevinLambeth-hf3yy Ай бұрын
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
I have followed Stattler since he won at Cheltenham. Mullins has run him at distances too short hence his recent lack of success. From his 3m 6f win at Cheltenham he will stay provided he is just as good as he was. Slightly high weight but that not unimaginably high goven his potential. He is my favourite. So hope he wins. He should do great providing he is as good as he was and that he doesn't get outpaced. Obviously has to be able to handle the Aintree fences. Mullins has laid him out for it. He was made for national this horse. Just look at Vaniller, Run wild fred form after losing to Stattler
@stuartpaterson7676
@stuartpaterson7676 Ай бұрын
I am maximum.... im all over it
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Good chance for I am maximus, nice weight. Could be the next Burrows Saint. Mullins seems to rate him aswell
@tonymurray814
@tonymurray814 Ай бұрын
Love u dude but slow down a bit. Regnal thing you get my drift?
@lisagallagher8927
@lisagallagher8927 Ай бұрын
I love the races I am thinking chemical or kitty but it's any
@paulbest2203
@paulbest2203 Ай бұрын
Janadil e/w still think he’ll run well . My growing sense for a bottom weight winning because of the harsh conditions of the ground is a strong finisher over 4.5 miles is PANDA BOY . Just needs 1 to come out to get in off bottom weight
@prideauxboy3350
@prideauxboy3350 Ай бұрын
bloody hell dave i like to take your knowledge on board but got it down to two vanillier & panda boy and you dissed the pair lol
@user-ll3nm8kh2y
@user-ll3nm8kh2y Ай бұрын
i'm on panda boy 40/1 vanillier ran a blinder in it last year also, but old now
@kenns6105
@kenns6105 Ай бұрын
I’m on panda boy too . The better the ground the better his chance. That said; the weather won’t matter as the clerk of the course will put the fire hoses on to make sure it’s soft; all thanks to the Animal Rights crowd! But I’m sticking with him
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@kenns6105 Have seen the ground on National course ?,. No need to water that,. Its as desperate as it gets and rain is forecast right up until race day. Heavy ground is more or less certain.
@garydent3904
@garydent3904 Ай бұрын
I AM MAXIMUS for me Dave
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
Got a chance, yes. But take a look at all of IAM's races and you'll see he is perhaps the worst jumper in the field.
@garydent3904
@garydent3904 Ай бұрын
@@markchapman2933 I agree with that but ever since he won the Irish national last year for a horse with so inexperienced he will get better with jumping over time and the last day he gave VANILLIER a 16l pasting plus the national fences these days are less forgiving
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
@@garydent3904 Immediately after the Irish National last year, I was thinking the same Gary. But this season has brought no improvement on the jumping front, Even in the Bobbyjoe he often jumped left-handed and slower than Vanillier. closing back up only on the flat. Form books tend to summarise too much. This is how I saw his round: Jumped left throughout, stuttered into the 2nd, put in a short one and mistake 8th, slow 9th, 10th and 11th (each time knocking him back briefly in last position), slow at next two, badly left 5 out. Challenged between runners 2 out, led soon after. Going clear without much effort when a difference of opinion with rider at the last, putting in a short one and mistake, jumping left and slow. went further clear run-in. Much easier to get away with in a 4 runner race. The poor jumping is not a novice thing anymore, it appears just part of the horse he is now.
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
@@garydent3904 Of IAM's rivals in the Bobbyjoe: The last of 4 Fury Road should (yet again) have been pulled up and has probably been amiss all season. Bobbyjoe third Minella Crooner was an extremely lucky winner on reappearance. Something went wrong with the odds-on fav Bronn and the eventual second blundered at the last handing it to MC. Then greatly flattered; 20 lengths behind going down the hill to 2 out in the New Years Day Chase, but winner Jungle Boogie and notorious weak finisher Classic Getaway had gone too fast too soon. MC closing up as the other two were out on their feet. Bobbyjoe second Vanillier was very weak in the market that day, possibly because he is best under less testing conditions and / or not fit enough. I Am Maximus the only one to show his form. Might have improved, difficult to judge. Certainly has potential to improve given another extreme test of stamina, but will he get round? Seems a bad price to me.
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
@@garydent3904 The National fences are (rightly imo) more forgiving, but statistically the course still produces a larger percentage of faller / unseats than any other course in Britain or Ireland... And in any race it is not just falling / unseating that's the problem (If I remember rightly IAM is yet to fall / unseat) It's losing ground to his rivals at those fences. Likely to lose more ground in the Grand National than any other race.
@bernardmckey9396
@bernardmckey9396 Ай бұрын
Coarch Rambler has a good weight all considering it could of been far worst it won't be a problem he's going to bolt up
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Weight is slightly kind on coroch especially after gold cup run. However the gold cup takes alot from a horse. Then to go into a national could be too much. Gold cup toll may strike
@bernardmckey9396
@bernardmckey9396 Ай бұрын
I had the grand national winner since Red Rums Days 20 years
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
Red Rum won its last National 47 years ago you absolute mug .
@adamtucker1985
@adamtucker1985 Ай бұрын
I quite like Galvin and the Stattler
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Yeah. Stattler is the one. I have been following him sonce he won at Cheltenham. Clearly stays great. Superb chance despite a slightly high weight. If he is as good as he was when he won then he has to be a massive contender. As for galvin good chance but proven staying abilities, did unseat last year.
@mooga-qh1gd
@mooga-qh1gd Ай бұрын
Commentium leviosar
@ajmanley3650
@ajmanley3650 Ай бұрын
Galvin for me
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
On heavy ground ? I dont think so.
@user-wf3tu5ur5u
@user-wf3tu5ur5u Ай бұрын
Limerick lace will be in the firset 4
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Maybe. Staying questions though and I don't rate the race he won at Cheltenham.
@spindrifter7519
@spindrifter7519 Ай бұрын
Why risk souring a class horse so early in their career? Be surprised if it runs
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@@spindrifter7519 J P Mcmanus likes the National and wants National winners hence why he is willing to put his horses into it.
@dr7262
@dr7262 Ай бұрын
The only thing that beats Corach is the rain. If its GS he wins. He's the best horse in the race, racing of a weight which suggests otherwise. Mahler mission is my EW but I just think CR wins unless it is soft / heavy and then obviously, he's vulnerable
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Gold cup toll could be an issue. It can take a lot from a horse
@daveheptinstall2927
@daveheptinstall2927 Ай бұрын
Different going but look at last year's race if knew it stayed distance vinellla would have been closer to pace .All over it this end BetMgm 100% boost😂
@user-dl9cx9dq6c
@user-dl9cx9dq6c Ай бұрын
Grand National 2024 Winner. PANDA BOY 🏋‍♂️🤓👍
@bodrulhok3325
@bodrulhok3325 Ай бұрын
Kittyes light dose not like it soft
@NorthernsoulBoy63
@NorthernsoulBoy63 Ай бұрын
Just one irish so aintree next
@rorym1967
@rorym1967 Ай бұрын
could be heavy ground this year
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
I hope not for Hewick's sake. He's already won over 4m 2f. (in USA), but he has to have firm ground, won't run without it. 🌱
@michaelwalker5686
@michaelwalker5686 Ай бұрын
@@anjou6497 he’s not running in the grand national he’s running in the aintree bowl
@anjou6497
@anjou6497 Ай бұрын
@@michaelwalker5686 Ok, thanks for that. The weather's so crap at the moment, maybe it'll be a bog come Aintree tho...⛈️
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@anjou6497 Hewick is not even declared. God is it any wonder mugs are easily parted with their money ?
@simonchapman5560
@simonchapman5560 Ай бұрын
@@michaelwalker5686 Hewick wont be seen at Aintree at all. Not on that ground. Will save it for Punchestown.
@garyrichards2136
@garyrichards2136 Ай бұрын
Got 40/1 on i am maximus
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Wow. Good odds. I think he has a great chance. Reminds me of Burrows saint. Could go one better than Burrows Saint dud in the national
@ZBRogan69
@ZBRogan69 Ай бұрын
The goffer has no chance
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Depends if he stays. Clearly a quality horse . Got entrires in other things. May not run
@michaeljohnson5365
@michaeljohnson5365 Ай бұрын
a HUGE outsider will win this year
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Why? What is the logic for that?
@markchapman2933
@markchapman2933 Ай бұрын
For a horse to be priced up on the day @ 33/1 the bookmaker's odds compiler would have believed it to have around a 2% (fair 50/1) chance of winning (2% + his mark up of 1% = 3% = 33/1 ). Something priced up at 100/1 would've been thought by the bookie's odds compiler as around a fair 0.25% etc. All those 2% chances and 1.5% and 1% and 0.25% etc of all the outsiders added up mean... By not giving a specific horse you're actually tipping one of the favourites.
@michaeljohnson5365
@michaeljohnson5365 Ай бұрын
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 heavy ground this year! a lot of the top horses are carrying 11stone plus i think a horse carrying 10 stone will win this year
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@michaeljohnson5365 Meetingofthewaters is a good horse , under 11 stone decent chance. Not a major outsider. Although weight can hurt those with lots of weight especially in heavy ground those horses are often more proven at staying. Staying in always important regardless of ground.
@adamtyrell4227
@adamtyrell4227 Ай бұрын
What about Mr Incredible
@MrHotlipsholohan
@MrHotlipsholohan Ай бұрын
Doesn't stay 4.5
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
​@MrHotlipsholohan That's not nessararilly true. He was second over 4m at the Midlands national. 2cnd over 3m 5f at Warwick aswell. No horse is ever fully proven over 4m 5f till they have done it but no reason to think he won't stay. He was doing well in the race last year before getting unlucky. He has a chance if fully recovered from Midlands national run
@MrHotlipsholohan
@MrHotlipsholohan Ай бұрын
@@nathanwhitehouse8237 Fair enough but the Midlands race was a tough slog too, moght need a rest after it, good ew, Meeting of the Waters for me or I am Maximus , do the reverse forecast and tk me later. , lol
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@MrHotlipsholohan I have backed meetingofthewaters and I am maximus. I agree with your point about Mr incredible needing a rest. Been pointing that out to others. Its also why i put if fully recovered in my comment. I felt the need to correct your comment about his staying ability. For reverse forecast I would say 1st Stattler 2cnd Meetingofthewaters Notable others likely to do well Kitty's light (ground concerns) Mahler mission I am maximus.
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@MrHotlipsholohan Obviously very unlikely to be able to predict the first 6 but I would say 1st Stattler ( Needs to be back to his best) 2cnd Meetingofthewaters 3rd I am maximus 4th Galia Des Liteux (Typical Skelton) 5th Kitty's light (Ground worries) 6th Corach Rambler ( Gold cup toll) I can see Vaniller and Mr incredible potentially being up there as well. Noble yeats maybe but the ground won't suit yeats will 11.11. Ain't that a shame apparently wasn't it's self last year could do better this time one to be aware of. I only back those I think have a chance at winning.
@HappyRareGrooveMan
@HappyRareGrooveMan Ай бұрын
Conflicted 66-1 ew 6 places
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Bit too high weight. Slight age issue. He is a bit particular with ground. Not for me.
@markluxon5044
@markluxon5044 Ай бұрын
Minella indo
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
Probably a bit too much weight. Didn't seem to stay up the Cheltenham hill in 2022 gold cup. Age worries. Bit too risky
@markluxon5044
@markluxon5044 Ай бұрын
@nathanwhitehouse8237 all fair points but missing cheltenham was a plus. Won't mind the ground and as a gold cup winner far far better than most of others in the race
@nathanwhitehouse8237
@nathanwhitehouse8237 Ай бұрын
@markluxon5044 Absolutely certainly a classy horse. He has his positives, which follow that. Missing Cheltenham probably will have helped
@michaelmarsh-bl9mg
@michaelmarsh-bl9mg Ай бұрын
Blimey you're getting as bad as Andrew Mount 😂 What about the old system of sticking a pin in?!
@bazman357
@bazman357 Ай бұрын
Video way to long.
@KevinLambeth-hf3yy
@KevinLambeth-hf3yy Ай бұрын
Stattler won the national hunt chase over 3m5f ran against top horses in Ireland on his couple of starts this year not being beaten that far by galloping des champs think he’s been laid out for this by Mullins 40/1
@paulbest2203
@paulbest2203 Ай бұрын
Like Stattler ,he hasn’t a high cruising speed and needs to lay up early in race .
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