Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison on the U.S., China, and the Thucydides's Trap

Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison on the U.S., China, and the Thucydides's Trap
July 11, 2017 at the Harvard Club of New York City

[@KayNaturals]

9:17 is when it really begins. Also 1.5x speed ppl. Save yourself.

[@chiragpatel2423]

Thank you very much.

[@Mike-oi2th]

man i should have read ur comments. i just fall asleep halfway

[@christopherkahn6522]

You have to stick around for the last few minutes to hear Henry's mic drop statement that the Chinese recognize the international order dominated by Europeans for the last 400 years has disintegrated. As a student of history, for me that is tectonic paradigm shift.

[@davidk6269]

Very enlightening discussion. I am glad the audience member asked his question at 1h 8m. It is a question that many Americans wonder.

[@superlyger]

Geopolitics is a highly speculative field. Kissinger enjoys chess, and is very good at it. However he has proven to be not so good at the zero sum game of politics. The wars under Kissinger or his advisory have been disastrous.

[@davidk6269]

Anyone else think Kissinger now looks startlingly like Mr. Fredrickson from the movie "Up"?

[@haider1905]

In the whole interview, I observed that Mr. Graham Allison looked very uncomfortable and embarrassed. IDK for what reason but it was weird.

[@huntercoleman1347]

Holy crap that was a long introduction. Dr. Kissinger finally gets a chance to talk at 9:15.

[@shyamchaudhri]

Graham Allison has raised the biggest issue of our times. Its important to educate the broader public about.

[@brunoduarte1419]

this is amazing

[@benwong4648]

Kissinger again shows he is the Master of geopolitics. His analysis is comprehensive, fair, and logical. It is unfortunate he is retired. The current crop of advisers in both China and America need to study Kissinger's works and thinking more assiduously.

[@CrusoeAI]

Although he is retired from public service, he still plays an important role between the States and China via his foundation.

[@ksm273]

Kissinger is fundamentally wrong on China because he so foolishly overestimates China. For his stupidity, he has created many of the "China problems" that we face today.

[@ecpgieicg]

Would someone be kind enough to provide us fellow youtube plebs a transcript?

[@erichwieger5049]

Compare this discussion with Mearsheimer's lecture asserting that, theoretically, it is highly unlikely that China can rise peacefully. Kissenger is not a "Realist" in international relations. He seems close to that theory called International Society--believing that the actual interpersonal relations of diplomats, leadership, and others, and their success or failure at understanding each other, more than pure power politics, determines developments. Mearsheimer thinks that usually power struggles rooted in fear and the need to secure survival against indeterminable threats, issuing often in wars, is the more fundamental dynamic.

[@hoangtran-gf3gd]

Henri Kissinger: "North Korean could collapse, leaving a (serious) nuclear stockpile problem for South Korea to. . . mope up"? An entertaining thought but Henry Kissinger's simple minded thinking and reasoning concerning the current geo-politics of Asia Pacific is sooo. . . 20th Century! Given China's strong economic and military standing in the world today, it is unbearably silly to speculate on such outcomes as China would probably try to prevent that from happening at any cost, Sir!

[@guillermomontoyo]

That dude is for real 😄😋😟

[@paularnold2195]

Like him or no, Kissinger is amazing for 90 years old.

[@cjoe6908]

The one belt one road program is only the result of the US Naval pressure on China. It's not ambitious and it's too hard to succeed. China's objective is simply expand its market as much as possible when the coastline has been pushed, i.e., the east of China has not much to work on. Japan and Korean and even Taiwan have been closely linked with the US, and Australia, etc. , what else can China expect to do in terms of markets?

[@LukasSavickasI]

Reach out the puppet state Europe.

[@seaskyguy]

This old gentleman is amazing!

[@Mike-oi2th]

i love his character and a gentle voices, help me fall asleep halfway of the interview

[@christopherkahn6522]

This discussion was very informative. Henry Kissenger has been a national treasure for quite some time. May he remain healthy and lucid for many years to come.

[@akp167]

I wish he commented on the US presence in Afghanistan and how this is partly, if not mainly, due to China's OBOR Initiative.

[@steventolifson9488]

Positive spirituality to all

[@steventolifson9488]

I appreciate the intervention that was achieve and am quite faithful some hard questions received a positive outcome. Much love to Henry Kissinger, as well as, all involved and may God's grace and wisdom cleanse and bless us all.

[@cheblack677]

The point is to promote a book creating a hot topic from thin air.

[@philjones5555]

I don't think Sparta caused Athens to rise.

[@yoelbolo292]

Nobody is better person than you. Your Wisdom is great. Thank you Mr. Kissinger!!!

[@maxmin4831]

If Xi is preparing for downside of war with U.S., how do NK and NK's nuclear weapons figure in Xi's war strategy? If NK nukes are a fait accompli, then how will China seek to leverage NK nukes in its favor, in particular in putting pressure on Japan? They seem to speak as if China is a political monolith. Are there hard-line factions in China pressuring Xi like we have hard-liners in the U.S. always pressing for war? If so, what is the hard-line Chinese position on NK?

[@hoangtran-gf3gd]

@ 55:00 to 57:00, Mr. Kissinger speculated on the possibility that China would prefer non-nuclear, unified Koreas, which showed that he's not all that astute about the Chinese thinking and all the underlining forces that have brought North Korea to where it is today. Mr. Kissinger probably has never spent much time pondering why ill-equipped China determined to intervene during the Korean War to save North Korea at all costs from the Allied Forces, or how and why a poor country suffering from constant famine such as North Korea was able to acquire the knowledge of making nuclear weapons? In a similar argument, Mr. Kissinger may have forgotten the fact that China's knowledge of nuclear weapons was early on handed to her by a derailed scientist from the West. I agree with Mr. Kissinger that a non-nuclear, unified Korean peninsular would be preferred by everyone, not just by China but how and under what terms is something that definitely requires a great deal of well planned discussions and well thought out negotiations? It appears that China has been quite successful in using North Korea as a buffer zone and an effective bargaining chip in dealing with the "unruly" America in particular and with the "hostile" free world in generaI, I'm appalled by Mr. Kissinger's over optimism and simple-mindedness in his thinking about the issue! I strongly believe the idea of a non-nuclear unified Korean peninsular would materialize ONLY under and by the Chinese terms! And what would be the Chinese terms? They could be a host of conditionings that would be for sure very hard for South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and America to swallow!

[@andrejkocman8679]

My biggest respect for Henry. If he knew what I know he would envy me as I do him.

[@liedersanger1]

Andrej Kocman ??

[@tomxu1561]

"I am the stronger, so..." This is your western logic/culture/ways of thinking, Please don't impose it on everyone else.

[@davedave83]

Is that why a Chinese foreign minister said "China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact," while staring at Singapore's foreign minister? It's not western logic, it's the logic of international relations. The strong do what they will and the weak suffer as they must. True throughout history, true today. You need only look at China's policies in the South and East China seas to see this in action.

[@SiwyKanonier]

Tom, from which culture you are? its really interesting how we diffrent see the politics. Im from western culture and really eager to speak about that with you, friend.

[@kaitang1700]

South China sea is provoked by the west. Philippines now switched sides. But the west is still at it. The only one left is Vietnam and even they are changing.

[@benwong4648]

Agree - it is known as power politics. The islands in the E China sea were supposed to be returned to China ( in Taiwan) after WWII. Instead US gave it to the Japanese - power politics. China is using its power in the same way western nations have done. There are no angels in geopolitics.

[@taoforte8988]

DrCruel awesome and historically important quote and you get many gold stars for your ill DJ skills

[@didipetermorales9492]

America had came to join the War during the two World War to prevent aggressive country from its ambition to a Unilateral Ruling and Control of nations. With war in Vietnam, it was, or occured to prevent Communist to invade Vietnam, and now again the Communist regime had taken the opportunity to grow economically with the Assistance of USA, and at present time PLA, People's Liberation Army (no other but Communist Regime) had militarized and now poised to implement it's ambitious goal to dominate the world.

[@antskilu1354]

kissinger get smarter by every year

[@judejin3066]

OBOR is a debt trap that has already pissed off Malaysia, and Pakistan(China's most loyal ally). So I would say old Kissinger hasn't kept up with new development at all! Chicom regime is a fascist regime that has been made great by Kissinger's detente policy.