Here’s Why the Bitcoin Halving Is NOT Priced In

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We talk about why the BTC Halving is not priced in. We discuss the phases that BTC goes through as it approaches its halving event but more importantly, the phases it goes through after the halving which is where price really begins to accelerate to the upside.
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[@RektCapital]

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[@issenvan1050]

But, M2 has contracted big time this time around!

[@issenvan1050]

How about the diminishing returns?

[@dutchcoiner]

Most people don't expect dips or crashes this time "bc of the huge ETF inflows". I've heard exactly the same in 2020, when people didn't expect any large pullbacks "bc of the huge wall of institutional money that was coming in". There's not a single reason to expect the current bull run to be different than previous ones. So yes, there will be nasty pullbacks and no, this isn't going to be a super cycle. Just relaaaaxxxx, peeps. Keep your eyes on the charts and your feet on the ground.

[@JohnSmith-ks5xw]

The pullback in 2020 was because of a certain unprecedented pandemic. I didn't see a pullback before the 2016 halving. You're seeing patterns that aren't there.

[@mikeb6774]

In this order

[@twisted_goat]

Why are you using the monthly Heikin Ashi chart from September 2023? There have been 5 green monthly candles since then.

[@FiremansGaming]

This cycle is weird we dont break ATH BEFORE halving hold on to your butts everyone

[@TacoTuesday4]

Bought before the halving in 2020. Same discussion back then. Many were saying the halving was priced in. It just isn't period.

[@RektCapital]

Agreed, only this time there's another catalyst as well - the ETF

[@dutchcoiner]

Agree. Note that literally every statement from 2020/2021 has returned. "this time is super cycle". "This cycle won't have large crashes anymore" "this cycle is the mother of all cycles", etc. All bs.

[@ph318]

​@@dutchcoinerinstitutions are actually here and accumulating. You are comparing your feelings and not the facts.

[@RS-jb1lf]

Add to this that institutional buy in is taking place with a spot etf, we are going to witness an incredible price rally.

[@GamingRider20]

This is supply and demand logic guys... If the supply is decreasing and people still need bitcoin what will happen?? Of course increase in Price.. And that what will happen in halving.. Why people need bitcoin?? The goverment and politic need bitcoin to transfer their money without being notice, with bitcoin no one can track their transaction... its easy logic guyss cmonn!!

[@veera5684]

Not going up…..

[@BITKIM-ql6ht]

Did your view of returning to 18k disappear during the pre-having period?

[@GamingRider20]

it is there bro, you can see there is a bearish there... its not that big because the chart POV is so big between 20k and 300k

[@AlTheKingBundy]

Thanks for the content, as always 🙂. Sir, isn't it the case that a few things are already different? A weekly candle-close above the 0.618 before the halving or in the 2022 bear market fell below the old 2017 ath, and, some comparisons tell me, that we are now a few months faster.

[@chainman1]

Great to see at scale instead of being desensitised by log charts. I take it the first chart was in months?

[@mikemcmullan8781]

Need for a re-evaluation after today's BTC highs? Seems like everything is happening sooner, thus, creating a different scenario that does not "rhyme" quite so well.

[@basil4072]

Your videos are extremely informative. Thanks for taking the time to post 😊

[@teppichkuchen8606]

dude, you forgot one thing.... btc price was much lower in the past....

[@godfirst6629]

When do you think we could see all time high price for Bitcoin?

[@Giwrgos-nr9do]

Good evening, do you guys think that a pullback will occur right before halving? If so that would be a good opportunity to buy.

[@anonymoususer4829]

Do you think liquidations are important to bitcoin price movement. If yes, could you talk about it in your next video?

[@thinc4444]

Your scale looks out of whack on that last chart. Goes wider, wider, narrower.

[@charlesmiller6281]

Chart is way out of date.

[@camronrubin8599]

You forget the supply is lower than ever and demand is higher than ever. Can’t compare this cycle.

[@marijalisicyna7082]

Then is time to buy before halving?

[@djhellion5]

No buy now. Buy more later. Just buy buy buy!

[@djhellion5]

When Bitcoin is 500,000k you won’t care if you bought at 50k or 48k or 60k or whatever. Think big

[@fedefedediego3266]

Buy when you saw 1 month in red of 8--14% negative or wait for 2-3 month in red to complete at least 12% negative. AND BUY ALL!!.........WAIT first need to correct nasdaq to break open to correct BTC....march-april this down going to start 100% SURE,

[@Nicholas.Tsagkos]

@@djhellion5 that's so true, IF it will go that high, then it won't matter much ! Thanks.

[@RSChris1980]

I’d really like to see you analyse the current climate against the 2017 run as we seem more correlated to that than the last cycle

[@parishparsa]

Would that also be a good time to accumulate Alts ?

[@cryptomando]

I cannot believe this video is discussing a chart meme. Your analysis isn't using log , very silly to look at these charts

[@parishparsa]

Around when ? Mid March or mid April?

[@n3lz0n888]

oh no how can I stack 1 whole BTC?

[@cs5842]

Good info

[@issenvan1050]

How about the diminishing returns?

[@RektCapital]

It's true, but still the uptrend turns parabolic

[@MultiRAMANUJ]

Very Informative

[@fanxia3100]

You can't price in the halving because the daily supply is still unchanged.

[@BitcoinAndCryptoCurrency]

excited by crypto now

[@RektCapital]

Same

[@danieldban]

Thanks a lot, we appreciate you !!

[@Deviljho5]

Great video! It isn’t priced in! I have been screaming this to my friends ever since the move up to 50 thousand!

[@y16x49]

Nice!

[@clyde19788]

why wouldnt it be? everyone knows about it. it's not a secret

[@godhatesyouall7861]

it's too optimistic.

[@RektCapital]

There price behaviour will look the same, it's the exact target for the peak that is difficult to predict

[@oldyboy2057]

It's the data Data itself is optimistic 😂 Data can be changed in real time if something from out side happen Like etf happen which is also positive as data shows for other asset

[@K-JAM]

Ty 🖤

[@caiogerstmann]

Do you warch crypto crew university? What about professor Fausto botelho? The three of you are my only sources of information to study this seriously, thank you

[@jackpaperhands]

it is. everything always is.

[@flikrinc9945]

crazy how it followed this perfectly

what is your pre-halving retrace price prediction? (dip price before re-accumulation) I was wondering if ETFs might change price action this time. Maybe this time is different haha

[@TheGeneral970]

Could be 47-48 k who knows lol

[@patikus]

very informativ

[@issenvan1050]

But, M2 has contracted big time this time around!

[@alvydasjokubauskas2587]

I loved when news outlets talk that BTC has priced in ETF and markets are very efficient. BTC is a beast on his own league, they simply cant understand it at all..

[@alvydasjokubauskas2587]

So basically I dont listen to news outlets - as they can be easily manipulated and biased. Rich people tell what poor people should do.

[@bigdaddychet8244]

YES SIR, Thank you Rekt!

[@brah7962]

Bro do you think we gonna have a left translated cycle this time like most are starting to predict or a normal cycle? And In case it’s left translated does that mean we are not going to see a full altcoin season?

[@crypt0bank446]

etf shock/supply is about to send it! no retracement like previous years pre having....

[@chrismcalister4428]

Hate to tell you, but if you look at every cycle, the halving doesn't affect price! The ath is broken 100 to 220 days after the halving. 😉

[@danydany1472]

BTC to the moon

[@X-CryptRepublic]

Tnx for the video, the picture of the current price seems to be old, not at 52k

[@RektCapital]

The principles remain the same, whether the price is $52,001 or $52,002

[@alvydasjokubauskas2587]

I have made a chart using very sophisticated techniques. But 400k will happen till end of this year. And maybe we will reach 1-2 million at summer 2025 and then the bear market will kick in... I think 400k is almost guaranteed at this point.

[@HandlewithCurr]

The chart for 2016 is bonkers, when did BTC ever hit 76k lol

[@gokseluzman6318]

500k coming soon 😂😂

[@tommyy__]

It is priced in

[@bernysilva3902]

IMPOSSIBLE

[@strrangerthings7049]

O it is priced in

[@zjz1]

Here is why Bitcoin halving is priced in. 1 million BTC are sold on exchanges every day. Halving will reduce 450 BTC a day. So we will have 999,550 BTC left. "Supply shock". Yea, not gonna do a damn shit.

[@gerach488]

Uh where did you get 450 from?

[@FellipeFingoli]

1 million BTC are sold per day? That mean in 19 days all the BTC are sold. Lol. 1 million is just the volume. It's just traders buying and selling every day.

[@levridge6601]

why would the halving be priced in before the halving? lol silly

[@FKNBASSALIEN]

What kind of fake ass chart is this 😂

[@erickayson588]

Leverage traders don't care.

[@RektCapital]

Which is why most of them lose money

[@leylamlayes]

Me gusta

[@knowwhatiswhat4276]

🥂

[@Crypto-vb3tx]

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiihiiiiiiiiii

[@StatiC_90]

XD that shows you have 0 knowledge about crypto

[@Deep_crypto_mbah_Condro]

Thank you❤