Here’s why the National Hurricane Center is trying out a new cone in 2024

By the middle of the 2024 hurricane season, you’re going to notice something a little different: A new experimental cone will run along side the traditional cone we have come to know over the years.

[@dylconnaway9976]

It always amazes me how a simple color map- complete with a key, can be so confusing. Kind of scary.

[@ghastlyalden3187]

People will always be dumbasses

[@fondcello1994]

" only two things are infinite, the universe and men stupidity" Einstein

[@770WT]

Trump voter's ​@@fondcello1994

[@crapton9002]

Hurricanes are like a reverse lottery. If you wait on a winning ticket, it's too late to leave without great peril.

[@hammer-r]

Hey we need a black sharply to show the true path. lol.

[@jackfrank303]

The NHC does a great job and I think the new graphic will highlight the danger areas outside the center of the cone, but after reading the comments, I realize some people are never going to understand the warnings and graphics.

[@mtn.homeforge351]

Oh, we understand the warnings and graphs. It's that some people can't afford to pack up and leave. It comes down to a choice of paying for gas to leave, or being able to afford food!

[@dylconnaway9976]

​@@mtn.homeforge351You don't speak for all of the high speed winners in the comment section. There are people that can't read a simple map. I think that's what he's referring to.

[@TBATG]

They should probably use more warm colors. Warm colors are very eye catchers.

[@Distress.]

I agree part of the problem is the choice of colors for TS Watches/Warnings and hurricane watches/warnings

[@TBATG]

@@Distress. exactly

[@bokneeza]

There’s people that didn’t understand the cone? Or maybe they just chose to stay and hunker down cause some people can’t afford to travel out of town for a hurricane or they rather take care of their homes.

[@Trahzy]

During Andrew in '92, people that couldn't afford to travel hitchhiked, there were free busses, it was a different time for sure.

[@toddbevan4414]

The cone was working just fine.

[@cht2162]

I like ice cream in my cone.

[@jeffhurley9291]

That’s what I have always looked at are the watches and warnings😎👍

[@beaujac311]

People don't know the difference between a watch and a warning. For instance they will say " they have put out a tornado warning for our area". And you correct them that it is a tornado watch instead and they will say " it's the same thing ". When you try to explain the difference they will ignore you.

[@jeffhurley9291]

@@beaujac311 yeah a watch means conditions are favorable and to keep an eye on things a warning means your in the path always found the cones and color keys easy to read and helpful but too many people focus on the cone

[@Distress.]

My only conplaint with the watch and warning system is its a bit too liberal. Ive been under several tropical storm warnings wgere conditions never approached that level. Makes people desensitized

[@wanderingquestions7501]

Good to see somebody in our government is on the job.

[@valeriehernandez5150]

Thank you to everyone at the NHC for doing such a great job. 🌀

[@MrGriff305]

I was just thinking that they needed to make it more complicated

[@mcjaguilar8667]

Wake up, bae. New cone just dropped

[@davidshumate5943]

I’m sorry that’s not a good Idea

[@charleshenderson6890]

If you live by the ocean and don’t know anything about the weather and how it works? Wtf is wrong with people. Btw I bet a friend I said” When a hurricane does hit watch for all the electric cars lined up to get charged(due to waiting) or sitting on the highway due to all the traffic how long will you sit there realizing your car needs charged?” Will it make it out? We shall see.

[@Dougsellshouston]

So now it’s harder to even see the cone got it

[@FlanagansBALB]

That’s the point. People fixate on the cone and not the whole threatened area. The cone is purely for potential tracks for the eye of the storm. It’s not meant to represent the total area of danger, but that’s exactly what most people have come to see it as, hence the change.

[@dougthomas7957]

I have been following hurricanes and weather hazards for a very long time. I am looking forward to seeing this new option. There's always that variable that can affect those not directly in the path of destruction.

[@AlabamaSkunkApe]

We were in Key West during Ian and relied on the cone to guide our decision to stay. In hindsight, we should have evacuated due to the flooding.

[@robertceliberti7175]

I like the idea. I remember Hurricane David in 1979. On long Island we didn't get a direct hit but we had wind and very heavy rain. The new cone would have flood advisories and tropical storm warnings.

[@-y6bz]

Yeah, I remember seeing that cone of uncertainty for the first time when I started getting interested in Hurricanes. They're thinking about changing it for a new Experimental cone of uncertainty. It's not that the old one would disappear. They're gonna keep it, but they're trying it out. That's what I'm picking up from this video

[@user-rz2de1zl2v]

They need to open 2 lanes north path and south path that way people get out safety.

[@walterengler5709]

I will tell you exactly how people will think. Yes the bright colors will show warnings. But with no cone lines showing how the hurricane will wobble and move as it crosses land, many of them will see the line of circles crossing land and then they will think they are safe as it won't directly hit them as THAT is the path it will follow. They will not understand that path is just an estimate without the cone.

[@AlohaChips]

Perhaps they should bring up the "spaghetti" models on broadcast TV/mass media communications, too, like the YT channels that specialize in tracking hurricanes do. Those are the ones that show every computer simulated path prediction, so it looks like a bunch of spaghetti bunched up close on one end and splaying out in different directions farther on. Could give a layman better appreciation of the actual variety of directions the center could actually go--which is what the cone really represents.

[@themanifestorsmind]

The cone isn't a prediction anyway. It's a guesstimate. That's why its full name is "the cone of UNCERTAINTY." People only focus on that wobbly line in the center of the cone, but in reality the storm can go anywhere within the cone, or even turn suddenly (but the cone would then be updated).

[@mr.ponstan7522]

Looks like it is going to confuse people more.

[@karsten27027]

This makes a lot of sence

[@aubreyodom468]

Sense lol

[@NoseyFloridaGirl]

Can’t even get the weather right on a daily basis . Just throw spaghetti at the map . Just as accurate.

[@michaelstoner3431]

Great idea! I need all the information I can get at a truck driver✅️🌪⚠️

[@SkyDreamer222]

Is this in any way a disadvantage for those who are colorblind? My dad is color blind, and when we watch weather channels, we always have to pause so I can help him identify the colors. Some colors blend together, making it difficult for him to distinguish between them. While most people might assume that at least a distinctive color variation would be visible, some individuals with color blindness cannot perceive the difference. I wonder if this has been taken into consideration.

[@theresagomez2605]

"...pointed at the Big Bend in Tampa." 🤔

[@HeatherMerrell]

Weather modification targets in advance. Isn't it disgusting.

[@FlanagansBALB]

Tampa, famously next to Stienhatchee and Tallahassee!

[@RichardLeo-mf3zb]

If people don't look at watches and warnings, it is their fault if they don't take action.

[@cecillindsey-nv2ik]

I told them that last year and the yr before , now they finally listened not that it was my idea. NOOO

[@marinebrat1888]

Isn't that just like the federal government, if it's not broken, let's brake it so we have to fix it, and nobody will like it or pay any attention, instead of if it's not broken don't fix it

[@mountainman5292]

Florida Home Insurance companies announce 75% rate increase.

[@AnastaciaBurns]

Now if you can add expected max sustained wind speeds/possible rainfall totals to those colors it would be great. 👍

[@stringlarson1247]

A new scheme for people to learn to ignore. Nice!

[@michaelpapirio6288]

Are you going to draw it with Sharpies?

[@katcraig7525]

😂😂😂

[@Dobie_ByTor]

There isn’t a PRIDE colors cone? Or storm-identity options?

[@stonew1927]

Too much going on in the new graphics. Just create a shaded subcone inside the old cone to show the highest percentage/likelihood of direct impact from the hurricane. That would be clearer. But of course, hurricanes often go their own ways and don't always conform to the projected paths. That's a problem that maps will have regardless. Either way, the onus is on the NHC to update and inform people with the most accurate information possible, especially as the storms draw near.

[@zacharylohse1539]

I wish game developers had this type of dedication to make their product better. I love the change of the cone let’s see how good it is

[@readheath3860]

nice green socks

[@bmcc4379]

Some job justification there. If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.

[@floridafisherman21]

This is incorrect. Lee county Florida didn't issue mandatory evac notices for the coastal areas until 18 hrs before landfall, well below the counties own 48 hr threshold they state in their EOC policy. Collier to the South and Charlotte to the north both issues their evac notices for zones a and b over a full day before Lee county did

[@miamianz]

its the insurance hike cone

[@92TampaChick813]

This is smart indeed.

[@williamgoulet6959]

Are those two doing the covid separation???

[@Rocket39Smoke14]

I just do what my iPhone tells me...🤖

[@annecosgrove2133]

I think this is wonderful. Some people try to make a storm the size of a hurricane into a pinprick and ignore the most destructive aspects, wind, rain, storm surge and tornado risk. Even he FL governor in the aftermath of Ian was whining about the storm “changing direction”. Dude, Ft. Myers was in the cone! They also had evacuation orders. I’m in PA and I got the message.

[@LovinLnCottage]

I like the new map. Much more informative.

[@770WT]

Anything to hype the weather

[@freeport36]

You are a professional. Please stop saying "kinda" and "kind of". Please show me how the cone "kind of" disappears...

[@cheeseburger6001]

If you think that adding colors is too complicated, you’re brain dead 😂

[@flatdaddio]

The poor forecasting is why people don't follow the warnings. Ian was supposed to make landfall in Tallahassee or further west. They called for evacuations. Then they said Ceder Key and called for evacuations. They kept changing the forecast. When people evacuated parts of the state as they requested and the storm went elsewhere were pissed!! You can't ask people to leave their homes in one art of the state and have the storm hit 200 miles away!! Many can't afford the cost. NHC does it all the time!!! When they're wrong they don't even say their sorry for driving people out of their homes for no reason.

[@brolymeng7946]

I think you forgotten that forcast storms track are not that easy and it's also the reason why it's track changes though the passing day and also how strong it would make landfall. And I hope Hurricanes this year don't go full Otis because that storms caught everyone of guard on how it strengthen so rapidly in less than a day from TS to a Cat 5 when it's surpose to be a TS at landfall.

[@flatdaddio]

@@brolymeng7946 You just proved my point. Poor forecasting! You don't call to evacuate millions of people and keep getting it wrong!! Millions of people on the roadways trying to evacuate and then the storm makes landfall hundreds of miles away!! They do this crap all the time!! People don't leave because they don't trust what they are being told!! It has nothing to do with the cone!!

[@-y6bz]

"Remember, weather forecasting is complex. It's unfair to be upset with forecasters for an inaccurate prediction. Hurricane Ian made landfall 200 miles away from the forecasted location, but let's cut them some slack. They work hard."

[@billybrown7953]

I'm 64 and these people have no clue.

[@billybrown7953]

​​@@-y6bzLOL 😂, if it's so " complex" ... maybe they should stop with their " predictions". They work hard ??? Do they run a jackhammer in the Florida sun all day ???? When they do, let me know.

[@XCBen]

How can I use my phone to take a picture of the screen if I am watching this from my phone? Who watches TV anymore? Lol

[@vaethh]

Screenshot

[@supertrooper73]

I don't recognize either.

[@dh3279]

But where is the goofy hand-sketched semi-circle off to one side that the brilliant sociopath in the orange clown suit added?

[@michaelleonard7579]

Can't you folks sit or stand any farther apart? I understand when you have a graphic between you, but in a large room you two just appeared silly. Two chairs and a small table between you would have been much better.

[@NYnative61]

They’re still playing like 6’ apart makes a difference.

[@tonyburzio4107]

Still useless. Take Ian for example. A small error in the forecast put the path on Tampa. Later, it was changed to Cape Coral. Well that made a mess, Tampa had already started evacuating and the roads were clogged. The problem isn't the color, the problem is there are no roads to the east! We keep evacuating onto each other. Don't even start about Ocala, where two main highways meet without a gasoline fuel dump for emergencies, right where everyone runs out of gas.

[@jeffdeloach1786]

SJS. Salary Justification Syndrome. It exists it most human endeavors. Anyone reading this will see the same thing in their work. A new boss or bosses come in (even if the business is running well) and you have SJS. Usually (in the scenario noted above) it increases the GF (goatf*ck) factor exponentially and makes things worse instead of better.

[@laurencaulton103]

Where's the Sharpie???

[@awakenedone2396]

Trying desperately to keep up with all the gov weather modification

[@deewilson888]

Yet another video reminding us just how stupid we are. Now they’re using crayon colors so we will understand better. Sheesh 🙄

[@Tbass-yy8uc]

I'm sure the governor of Florida will fight this

[@awedelen1]

Hmm 🤔

[@ralphnabozny8494]

there is no where to go

[@demontooth0428]

Where's the sharpie?

[@WorldThought2024]

You can’t take a prediction for a hurricane season, you can take an educated guess Stop making the 2024 hurricane forecast feel like the worlds gonna end, grow up NHC

[@-y6bz]

Ha ha, that's pretty funny.☺️

[@mtn.homeforge351]

Bad ideal!

[@delayedgratification581]

Trump needs a sharpie

[@Sunset4Semaphores]

How much did I pay for that hotel conference room NOAA?

[@jet4415]

Can’t they just use a sharpie?

[@scotsmuscle]

They are in bed with insurance companies, if a storm passes as tropical its regular deduction but as hurricane it's the higher deduction

[@BrandonDBaxter]

?

[@outcastanglers]

Weather forecast is way worse today than years ago . Pre digital was better. Relying on computers to much these days instead of seasoned meteorologist. Fact .

[@-y6bz]

😊😮😂❤

[@theonlinechannel3240]

Not even a fact. Weather is a lot more predictable today and is more likely to be correct then if it was the 2000's. This is a fact as proven by data when looking at past forecast and what has actually happened.

[@-y6bz]

@@theonlinechannel3240 I see it differently

[@theonlinechannel3240]

@@-y6bz Then you are blind or just dumb. If You cant argue with data lol.

[@mperson1890]

I don’t like this new one.

[@BluBlu777]

Maybe they should try using sharpies

[@3ngi_n33r]

No, it’s because the models kinda suck. The European models usually seem more accurate.

[@michelleturner8558]

Dumbing down the system for people who don’t speak English.

[@Carbonf1ber001]

What?

[@Columbus1152]

Dumbing down the system for people who are dumb.

[@-y6bz]

OK, that's the way to say it.

[@KJSvitko]

Climate change and rising sea levels will make properties in low lying areas and coastal areas impossible to insure. Banks will be reluctant to give a mortgage for 15 or 30 years because the property may be under water. Selling properties to average buyers will become impossible in the future as banks and mortgage companies stop making loans for these properties. Coastal areas are a high risk for insurance and extreme weather like hurricanes. People will have to self insure and take the risk of loss. Condo associations are losing their insurance and if they find a new higher cost policy they will be passing on the higher costs to association members. Flooded cars from hurricanes were filling the salvage lots. Insurance companies will raise rates and pass on the costs and risks to policy holders next year. Coastal properties will be confined to wealthy individuals that can buy properties with cash and self insure for losses from hurricanes or rising sea levels.

[@googlesucks7021]

Lol 😂😂😂😂😂 nutbar.

[@billybrown7953]

Over 30 years in Florida and the oceans haven't risen yet. 😂

[@Picsou313]

Huge L

[@hustlecrowe9440]

maybe its that Florida is just dumb

[@869handyman]

They are going to change the weather. Get ready.

[@SandcastleDreams]

So, wait until the worst hurricane season in forever and decide to change things? More people gonna die!

[@-y6bz]

So you're basically saying that they've waited too long until the worst hurricane season forecast it in forever in order for them to change things. And then you say that so many people are gonna die because of that. I don't think that's the way.

[@billybrown7953]

LOL 😂, go hide under your bed . You'll be safe..

[@JustinKais]

Mainly because y'all have absolutely no clue what you are doing. "Best guess" is another word for what you do.

[@paulc5172]

How ridiculous. Slowest start to hurricane season ever. Please stop all the hype

[@madmanjack6923]

The new cone is dong-shaped. Just in time for pride month

[@RedMartin66]

How that work out for you Bunch of climate alarmists! 😂🤣

[@godfreynicholson3202]

Why don't man ever just stop trying to figure out God's work. 😂

[@burnout_2017]

I guess my house should have paid better attention to the warnings and left. Maybe all these flashy colors will make it pay attention better. This is stupid, if you think for one minute that this is going to make people that are never leaving all of a sudden leave your just fooling yourself. The eye of Ian went right over us ok.....we knew this was coming to us because of thats what storms on that track do, they get pulled in by charlotte harbor. Your new toy does nothing to mitigate anything, people are inherently stubborn and stupid and are also going to ignore your pretty colors. You just want to feel special and important....drama queens.

[@BrandonDBaxter]

Doosh

[@Fattycatpawz]

THE CONE SUCKS!

[@Whatareyoudoingwithyourlife]

the NHC website is terrible. its to basic & not enought info. It needs to be update fully.

[@-y6bz]

Okay, let me ask you. What will you change about the webpage? Since it's too basic and it's terrible and it has not enough. Info, how would you fully update it and change it?

[@jeffdeloach1786]

SJS. Salary Justification Syndrome. It exists it most human endeavors. Anyone reading this will see the same thing in their work. A new boss or bosses come in (even if the business is running well) and you have SJS. Usually (in the scenario noted above) it increases the GF (goatf*ck) factor exponentially and makes things worse instead of better.

[@outcastanglers]

Weather forecast is way worse today than years ago . Pre digital was better. Relying on computers to much these days instead of seasoned meteorologist. Fact .

[@AFlyingMayMay]

Where is your meteorology degree?

[@LucasgamerX_YT]

@@AFlyingMayMaythere’s many factors to consider. Computer models aren’t the most ideal thing to consider only.