High probability of Recession in 2025: Employment Data Update

[@brunosousa9264]

Great content. I miss this boring high quality content. Is all we needs, thanks for sharing your insights, have a great 2025!

[@financial_freedom101]

Thank you.

[@sanban5524]

love it man no bs just straight facts how things should be

[@financial_freedom101]

Thank you

[@ELconomics101]

Happy holidays coach!!

[@financial_freedom101]

Happy holidays!

[@danster442]

Never been this early. Feels like a wasteland. Thanks again for the advice!

[@wallye8713]

Just found this channel. GREAT JOB. No fluff or glam. Would love to see bigger board with overlay of charts/graphs to visually see change. Please let us know resources of data so we know apples to apples. Lastly, how frequently are you going to post as the economy imho will start moving faster as to what I believe as more recessionary data/conditions start to come in. Again great work and can’t wait to be a $ supporter.

[@financial_freedom101]

I post as new economic data becomes available mostly from the FED and Bureau of Labor and Statistics and other credible sources which are in the description of every video if you want to see the original source information. I post most weeks and I will be posting more while I am not traveling in early and late Jan.

[@WVNWAY]

Agreed

[@ibrahim0814.1]

I’d really like a detailed video on PUT options and Inverse ETFs, but please go into detail as to where/how you actually buy them

[@mychavey]

Great video as usual. Thanks for sharing

[@financial_freedom101]

Thanks for watching!

[@taylorjennings2218]

Thanks for the video. If you’re looking for video ideas, would love to hear more about the inverse. ETFs have literally never heard of this until just now I’m familiar with put options, but I’m always concerned about the time running out component thanks.

[@ScootLogix]

Solid video. I'm expecting the market to correct some, glad I'm positioned safely. Thanks for the info.

[@krazykrypto97]

Great video, straight to the point! A video about how put options or strategies around buying put options would be much appreciated! Been looking around but I’m currently stuck on analysis paralysis due to the overwhelming amount of information

[@gmjsomeone54]

Appreciate the update 🙏🏼 Quality Content

[@WVNWAY]

Good lookin out my friend I always watch what you got going on the people love you remember that

[@mistrykam]

Thanks for another amazing video. Super helpful content!

[@financial_freedom101]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@dennisnoone7427]

Could you may be make a vid on inverse etf, i mostly sit in short term t bills and waiting for a good sale or fire sale lol

[@financial_freedom101]

I put it on the list. Thank you for the suggestion.

[@1117time]

im learning a lot. i really appreciate your videos! concise and full of information

[@financial_freedom101]

Glad you like them!

[@mindaugasjuska]

Please do a video about put options and inverse ETFs(how much time do you hold those)?

[@financial_freedom101]

Thank you for the request. I will cover these in a future video. Notice I am not selling my stocks / ETFs as I believe that in the long run it is still best to simply hold good companies. I am still dollar cost averaging. With a very small percentage of my portfolio $10,000-$50,000 (only 1-5%) I will use put options and inverse ETFs to protect from down movements and potentially profit more. Again it is not immediate and I will only hold an inverse ETF for a few days. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@dabomboo7o]

Market always looks forward but can never detect when weve been in a recession for 6 months

[@hrodri55]

How come you didn’t mention the 10 year and three month treasury yield uninverted?

[@CyanTeamProductions]

Another great video

[@financial_freedom101]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@dip9995]

Also as a hedge why would you buy puts over selling calls?

[@kirankishore9934]

Good content. Don’t you think Feds may have the interest rates at their disposal to prevent recession in the next year or two?

[@anonperson6151]

I would like to note, that because we have such an unsteady entry level jobs market, and the turnover layoff, and switching rates, make it incredibly hard to produce steady data that represents how many people are gainfully employed at any time. Our jobs market data has missed the mark lots recently, but in my mind, it makes sense the data has been missing, because it's a very unstable environment for many currently.

[@financial_freedom101]

The real job numbers were revised down 800,000 people over the last year to your point.

[@anonperson6151]

@@financial_freedom101 Yeah, I believe it is difficult, even for the best statisticians from Isreal even.

[@anonperson6151]

@@financial_freedom101 You could instantly fixx this, by force attatching peoples identities to their cell phones, but that would be immoral or something right? lmfaoooo

[@anonperson6151]

@@financial_freedom101 bro, we are attempting "anonymous banking" while deregulating the industry, ,that wants to force attatch your life, to your cell phone. so your cell phone will be your identity, yet anonymous banking? ahahahahahaha greatest scam of all time, DODGE.. ahahahahahahah

[@anonperson6151]

@@financial_freedom101 I'm sorry man,, I'm smoking pot,, thinking back to the labor data reports. I called around to union halls, visited colleges, talked to tech nerds, looked around my area and said wtf this data is wrong, I knew it instantly, eyes fkn open on the street, all the fk I knw man.

[@mychavey]

Which ETFs are you talking about? I’d love to read more about them

[@financial_freedom101]

Here are a couple of examples of inverse ETFs SQQQ and SPXU. These are not buy and hold, but rather buy for a day or couple of days then sell quick since as the QQQ and SP500 move up the inverse ETF will fall. So I only buy when I see a major issue like in March of 2020, these inverse ETFs carry much higher risk and move 3x faster in many cases. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@tryittryitagain1936]

What % of these jobs might be Ghost Jobs, and how to know? And what assets to invest in while prepping for the upcoming recession and how much into recession should one start investing. Thanks so much for the quality work, man. It's very helpful. :)

[@CyanTeamProductions]

its really hard to guess what the lowest point of a recession will be, could be 10% pullback, could be 20% pullback, maybe he will talk about it in another video

[@byorce]

There are levels to recession. So the question could be how severe recession we can expect?

[@dip9995]

What do you think about the unemployment stats likely being represented lower than reality due to people who unemployed often working part time on mobile delivery apps?

[@Elycaught1]

do you offer 1 on 1 financial advice

[@financial_freedom101]

I have a discord channel where I talk with people a few times per week. It is free and I do not charge anyone to talk as I try to help people. Discord channel link: discord.gg/TpcxEGVrY3 If anyone is asking for money it would be a scam. Understand that I am not a licensed financial advisor and can only offer what I would do in a similar situation.

[@TruthsSake]

Do you think it will be a light recession if one comes, or something deeper?

[@financial_freedom101]

I would expect an average recession which is around 10 months long. There is no black swan event at the moment to think otherwise.

[@ameerskater]

what inverse ETF's are you looking at? great insights and great video as per usual.

[@akshatrastogi9063]

Maybe SQQQ

[@ameerskater]

@ I don’t like SQQQ a ton cause it’s made up of great tech stocks

[@financial_freedom101]

Here are a couple of examples of inverse ETFs SQQQ and SPXU. These are not buy and hold, but rather buy for a day or couple of days then sell quick since as the QQQ and SP500 move up the inverse ETF will fall. So I only buy when I see a major issue like in March of 2020, these inverse ETFs carry much higher risk and move 3x faster in many cases. Imagine it was the dotcom / tech bubble then SQQQ may have done well as QQQ was heavily impacted. It will depend on which sector is being hit hardest. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@ameerskater]

@@financial_freedom101 thank you! Appreciate the detailed explanation

[@brunosousa9264]

It’s a big side question on the bigger topic of the video, but I have to ask, in the hope that you find time to reply. Why a reverse ETF? Why not a future contract or options contract of the SP500? Or even strait short the SPY. Thanks in advance

[@financial_freedom101]

I mostly dollar cost average to invest and when I invest in good companies I do not sell them. Shorting has unlimited risk. Buying a put or an inverse ETF limits my risk to what is paid for them. Trying to time the market is more of a gamble with 90% of people failing to outperform the market so I only do it with $10k-$50k which is only around 1-5% of my portfolio max. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@IndellableHatesHandles]

I'm holding off on putting more into the market until the indices go down by 5-10% from their peak. I'd much rather average down in a market like this

[@TheBerlyn186]

There’s 100,000 people retiring every week and these numbers are not accounted for the unemployment numbers.

[@financial_freedom101]

People that retire are not counted as unemployed as they do not file/claim unemployment. Retirees would be captured as no longer in the workforce. Workforce participation rate is showing slight decline and is now at 62.5%.

[@gonzom8744]

@@financial_freedom101but if those people start to file for unemployment because their retirement money is not enough, would that also effect unemployment?

[@BA-pz3lo]

What do you think of Bitcoin? Does it have its place in a portfolio? Or pass on it?

[@Vonnie12]

Homeless pop rose by 20% that’s all I need to know

[@soundsnags2001]

How to invest in this?

[@neel-z4e]

@@soundsnags2001invest in the homeless population?😂

[@osu122975]

Hopefully the Fed rate Cuts will help improve the unemployment numbers. I'm not sure how the proposed tariffs president Trump is going to affect the economy just yet and I think that's what most people are concerned with. I honestly think that until those tariffs get rolled out I think the stock market will probably stay stagnant if unemployment gets better until we see how these tariffs affect the economy

[@financial_freedom101]

There will likely be some short term pain for long term benefit especially with DOGE. Unemployment numbers may get worse if the government lays many people off.

[@rdx913]

I love the boring aesthetic but I don’t equate this with accuracy: a clock strikes 12 twice a day. How long will you be saying this for? Until you’re correct is the answer.

[@financial_freedom101]

Look back through the channel and you will see that I was concerned about a recession at the very end of 2019 into early 2020 which was sped up by covid, but there were already problems. The next time I said anything about another recession was not until late 2024. If the data improves then I would not expect a recession, but everything at this movement is in the direction of a recession and it will take several quarters to effect the broad economy. Right now tech workers and manufacturing are laying off employees.

[@criminalelement494]

But haven't people been saying a recession is coming "next year" almost every year, especially in the last couple of years?

[@financial_freedom101]

Look back through the channel and you will see that I was concerned about a recession at the very end of 2019 into early 2020 which was sped up by covid, but there were already problems. The next time I said anything about another recession was not until late 2024. If the data improves then I would not expect a recession, but everything at this movement is in the direction of a recession and it will take several quarters to effect the broad economy. Right now tech workers and manufacturing are laying off employees.

[@criminalelement494]

@@financial_freedom101 Thanks for the reply. I didn't mean you. I meant that people have been saying a recession is "coming" for years and years. It just feels like every year, everyone says it's coming. But you have a great channel with straightforward content that I genuinely enjoy.

[@joshpryan4]

Why buy put options/ETFS (timing the market) instead of just continuing to DCA into your regular ETFs and mutual funds? Particularly for those of younger age, wouldn’t the rebound post recession get you a similar return without the market timing?

[@waterdose1]

I think that's what I'll do. I'm 25 and I have a pretty good time horizon.

[@financial_freedom101]

Notice I am not selling my stocks / ETFs as I believe that in the long run it is still best to simply hold good companies. I am still dollar cost averaging. With a very small percentage of my portfolio $10,000-$50,000 (only 1-5%) I will use it to protect from down movements and potentially profit more. Again it is not immediate and I will only hold an inverse ETF for a few days. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@CarbonTaxLOL]

Important to note that a recession actually just gives you an opportunity to BUY stocks.... So this is just good news, not bad. Whenever you see red just buy. Then do it the next month, the next month etc, until we get 4 years down the road and somebody fixes the " recession" by magically making putting their money back into the stock market.

[@WorldwideHappening22]

ITS SOOOOO OVER

[@BA-pz3lo]

Do you invest in bitcoin?

[@financial_freedom101]

I do not directly invest in bitcoin currently. Similar to any one stock I would not put more than 5% into it if I did. Bitcoin has very wild swings of -75% then up +400% and can wipe someone out if they need the money at a low point. I will make a video on the risks and benefits of bitcoin in the next few weeks.

[@BA-pz3lo]

@ sweet I’ll look forward to that 👍

[@Nb-ll8kp]

Great points and explanation, just a little confused as to why your actions aren’t really matching your predictions. You predict a recession but you’re still buying stocks and not selling anything. And it seems like you will only buy puts if the numbers get worse. But… so will everyone else? Every time the unemployment numbers go up, everyone buys puts so you’re just a part of the crowd. You did a great job presenting the facts but you have no actions that actually back up your prediction. You’re not a genius for buying puts when economic numbers don’t look nice.

[@financial_freedom101]

As inflation is no longer going down there is a risk that inflation may increase again while unemployment increases. The Fed may be in a hard spot and allow high inflation again for some time to not push unemployment higher and inflate some of the government debt away. The government may also provide direct stimulus to people which leads to more inflation and can rapidly increase asset prices which is why I am not selling as that is also a risk that the cash would rapidly lose value. The puts grow in value if the stocks drop and limit the loss and the inverse ETFs have made me several times what I would by just selling stocks previously as they are 3x the movement. There are a lot of potential unknowns with how the government will intervene and I will need to keep an eye on it. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

[@player8967]

big bull market 2025 but it will hit hard end of 2025 and early 2026 peak than start its recovery q3 2026

[@jeanah685]

Lol. We've been in a recession for almost 4 years. Unemployment is almost 8% when you consider part time workers and those who stopped looking. Stop gaslighting.

[@Man_in_a_Gucci_Suit]

I bet Trump tarriffs make 2025 rough But 2026 the trade war ends and the economy gonna be baller

[@burgholte]

Every single one of these videos is the same 😂 also recessions and the stock market don’t have a 1:1 correlation. There have been many examples where stocks have gone up during a recession (during 16 out of 31 recessions since civil war, stock market had a positive return)

[@financial_freedom101]

I agree that some times assets move up especially during high inflation periods even during a recession. At least it is consistent. I continue to dollar cost average into the S&P500 and it will be several more months before a recession at the least. All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.