History suggests 20-point comeback election wins are rare

In this week’s video, John Ivison is joined by Abacus Data chief executive, David Coletto, to discuss the prime minister’s comments in a recent interview that the polls should be disregarded because Canadians are not yet in “decision mode”.
Trudeau told CBC’s David Cochrane that what voters tell a pollster, “if they ever manage to reach you”, is very different from the choice they will make come election time.
Abacus has just released a poll that has the Conservatives 20 points ahead and the Liberals with their lowest vote share since October 2015. Coletto said Trudeau may just be trying to bolster morale among Liberal supporters by telling them things aren’t as bad as pollsters are saying.
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[@TheJinJang]

I want the federal election TODAY. No more Trudeau and Liberal party

[@AllRequired]

(and the 2021 election is proof of this) Not unless he wants it.

[@jiggycalzone8585]

A continued streak of "are we so out of touch? No its the citizens who are wrong" continues unabated.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

Yep, Principal Skinner with a lisp. 😂

[@Platinumsniper]

Turdeau questioning real science? Say it ain't so!!!!

[@kmsingh8539]

Except for covid 19 where he quotes science data he likes

[@maritimer3027]

😂 good one! He’s a hypocrite that’s for sure!

[@grandmaG67]

We're so fed up with this government, I don't know if we can handle another year of him and his lying entourage.

[@BudzzableRides]

More worried about picking up the pieces of what’s left of the country after the spoiled child leaves office. It going to take decades to recover from Trudeau’s disastrous reign. If it’s even possible.

[@EricBurke-uu4lw]

I'm hopeful. All pierre has to do is reverse these harmful policies. Watch though pierre will be in the middle of an economic disaster. I could see ppl walking away from the million dollered mortgages.

[@grandmufftwerkin9037]

I cannot fathom the mind of a person who still supports Justin and his government.

[@joelinasia8401]

People who either work for government, or who don't work. No skin in the game!

[@horadrim3903]

Subsidy benefactor and Election Interference

[@David-bh1rn]

Honestly there's like a good 10-15% of the population that will always vote liberal no matter what. The liberal party has been the most dominant political party in Canada by far so it's seen as the default option. Unfortunately there's no convincing these people.

[@rickbateman2401]

The sad thing isn’t the Trudeau supporters, most of them haven’t had an original thought in years. The sad people are the ones that would go back to supporting the Liberals if they dumped Trudeau. What’s happening in Canada is not the result of Justin Trudeau’s arrogance or incompetence, it is the result of the arrogance and incompetence of the entire party that supports him.

[@mumbai3899]

@@rickbateman2401does not matter if we the rest go to vote! I hope we will see the highest turnout at next elections !

[@matthewmiksza5855]

I hate Trudeau with a burning passion.

[@rboddington]

Not more than I do. If there was a prize for who hates him most, I would win, you would lose. 🤣

[@PoppaBB]

The part that you failed to mention about the two of the examples used Mulroney and McGuinty, had won their reelection but had leadership changes when they realized the electorate had regretted their choices and the PC leadership under Kim Campbell and the Ontario Liberals under Kathleen Wynne suffered massive defeats in their next elections and were rightly reduced to less than party status numbers. Trudeau is taking the Federal Liberal party to that abyss now.

[@williambabe3032]

Wrong with Wynn. She won the next election handily, but badly failed trying to win a second time

[@ianleslie6971]

Kim Campbell was the Classic Diversity Hire. In over her head, 30 ft. Down. The famous line from that election " An election is not the time to discuss issues " Ahh Kim ,they barely knew ye

[@lavernekeller2283]

Agreed and they're already at the brink of that abyss right now and if they don't dump TrueDork or he refuses to step down this year so they have time to find a new leader, if any would want to replace this loser. So in all likelihood that loser is going to bring down the liberal party much like Jughead Singh is going to take down the NDP to complete non party status and if we're lucky both parties will be reduced to no seats period in the HoC.

[@charlottetown4422]

There is no leader in the liberal federal party I vote for. They are done.

[@sandihallgren7509]

I believe it was a mistake to put all their eggs in the Trudeau basket. As a party they are ruined.

[@drumminghands6356]

We as Canadians question what he does as Prime Minister and if he is capable of doing his job?😮

[@charlottetown4422]

Not a fat chance. I am done with this craziness.

[@theengineer70]

"no need to panic, prime minister zoolander, just keep doing what you've been doing, it'll be fine!"

[@McNighthawk750]

How did his net worth triple since being PM?? I want to "invest" in the same and gain 300% too !!

[@Tomyum19]

How do you know his net worth tripled? Oh, you don’t know.

[@tamrahawkes3170]

@@Tomyum19actually we do know!

[@Tomyum19]

@@tamrahawkes3170 Oh yeah? How? You know his bank account number. Be a serious person.

[@Tomyum19]

@@tamrahawkes3170 Oh yeah? Do you have his bank account number?

[@Tomyum19]

@@tamrahawkes3170 How?

[@McNighthawk750]

Its time for a change and a real leader who is responsible. I know who I am NOT voting for in the next election. Why would I vote for someone who foolishly spends my hard-earned tax money??

[@annroberts8991]

Canadians are ready for change. They are tired of the government. Nine years is long enough. When a relationship isn’t working it is time for it to come to an end.

[@dinomarchioli3650]

I want Blackface and other cabinet ministers in JAIL, nothing less. Most corrupt govt in Cdn history.

[@benoitblanchette9460]

I believe that is in the next election that the NDP coalition Liberal alliance they will be very lucky to win 20 seats between both parties

[@misner1989]

Looll ya Trudeau's in Wacko land 😅 again

[@yb9221]

Maybe the liberals knows something that we don’t know

[@rocketruss3405]

When inflation , interest rates, gasoline, groceries, liquor were all increasing, Liberal supporters were all saying “ Its not the Liberals fault, it’s happening everywhere “ Now you are saying “look at the good job we are doing, interest rates are going down”, you can’t have it both ways. Fact is, the Liberals carbon taxes and energy policies have directly led to higher grocery prices and lower GDP. Automatic yearly tax increases on alcohol are not the result of “external forces”. Divisive political policies, that pit urban against rural and non- firearms owners against legal license firearm owners for political gain while ignoring the true causes of the problem is not good governance. Not to mention the tens of millions if not billions of dollars in cost for their confiscation (“buy back”) of legally acquired firearms. I am sorry to say that I have actually voted for the Liberals in the past. Time for Trudeau and the Liberals to go.

[@ElainEmail-m7q]

Even the independent and undecided Canadians are ANGRY at the Foreign Interference list that triggers many questions: why do taxpayers continue paying their hard-earned wages to pay full wages and benefits for those politicians on the list of Foreign Interference? Canadians are not FOOLS.

[@tarafox6618]

Pollievre has been pretty clear on what he'd do ... Just listen to his speeches?!

[@FewNewReasonss]

I want a better saying Lets build more houses, not "homes" wheres the bloody houses. Tiny apartments arent a home.

[@Disgruntled_Canadian]

Don’t expect anything more than a little apartment from any socialist party like lib/NDP. They want everyone in a little apartment that they will rent to you. His housing plan is to literally build apartment rentals, he’s said it many times.

[@Tomyum19]

Most of the world lives in a tiny apartment.

[@Buckshot99]

No one is going back to Trudeau.

[@moreon4913]

Canada has decided, Trudeau must go!

[@rocketruss3405]

Trudeau, even his wife left him. The majority of us would have had him leave us years ago when given the opportunity. We can thank the NDP for hoisting Trudeau onto Canada for the last three years in their gasping clutch at relevance in Canadian politics.

[@ianhowes8141]

He doesn't care what the people think - he is a god in his own mind and that is all that matters to him!

[@mumbai3899]

Wonderful! Why has Trudeau to stay?

[@johnc4814]

Stay with liberal party justin, dont give up. We need u to stay. Calgary Conservative Party Volunteers DT.

[@JanetMacleod-zw6uq]

....just not ready...and never will be

[@daryl9799]

100% of the people I talk to want him out where do they get there numbers from? Ive literally never even met one person who likes him.

[@maritimer3027]

I’ll never ever vote Liberal for the rest of my life !

[@MrPeaceman71]

Thank you

[@lukemoloney1113]

Iverson doing his best to prop up the Libs 😂

[@TeresaSmyth-z9m]

Common Sense Conservatives will win!! Go conservatives go!……

[@maryparker67]

lmao...oh yeah we are in a decision mode...loll..trudy wishes we were not !! he is gone !!

[@salmonidae3667]

Isn't this common sense? I mean, it's not unheard of, but I would generally assume that overcoming a 20 percentage point deficit in an election is something very difficult to do lol

[@ianleslie6971]

PS John Iveson. Mulroney did not pass the Meech Lake Accord. It failed to pass.

[@michaeld.1128]

He only calls early elections during a pandemic.

[@AbeySampson-ow8pz]

How Freeland become Canada Finance Minster its beyond my imagination.

[@blazunlimited]

That’s how we wound up in this mess.

[@mike-we8pb]

Certain defeat for Justin--- ---love it!!!

[@Tomyum19]

You have to hand it to Coletto for polling so well despite being a Liberal.

[@MrPeaceman71]

Oh but he would love polling if it was in his favour.....such a douche

[@jonk5669]

Dominion: hold my beer!

[@richardredseal3993]

“History suggests…” As in NEVER. Deport John Ivison for WrongThink while yer at it.

[@guelphguy2779]

Who are the delusional people that still support Trudeau?

[@Harris01able]

To do the same thing over and over again and expect a different outcome each time is insanity. Trudeau always says he will CONTINUE TO DELIVER FOR CANADIANS. Most people realize that he's just going to continue to do the same thing. No change, no improvement. Just more Justin. Who wants that?

[@hughjass1044]

I see where Numb Nuts has another apology all lined up. Not for anything he did, of course. Oh, Heavens no! He's perfect. I dunno who it's for or what it's about but no doubt whatever it is, he'll try and hang it on Pierre somehow even though it likely happened in the 1850s. That, and a few more rounds of "Diversity is our strength!"; all in different costumes, and he'll believe he's in fine shape.

[@ElainEmail-m7q]

The longer to call an earlier federal election to happen in 2024 , the fewer MP seats of both LIBERALS and NDPs can win more than SINGLE DIGITS seats in October 2025. The remaining supports to LIBERALS and NDPS today are fading away in 2024. Imagine both parties ( NDP-LIBERALS government) to wait until 2025 to call a Federal Election - single digits MPs seats for those 2 parties are the possibility.

[@davewoollett4026]

We have been trying to reach him but he is never home

[@sirrom0354]

You are not alone

[@dav3tv452]

Can you imagine working your arse off for the last 9 years and getting taxed to the very fiber of your being and having it all sent to every country but Canada! It's disgusting Trudeau and his entire cabinet needs to be voted out.

[@arthurgay5746]

Trudeau doesn't have a chance... After what he did during covid and what he's doing now??? Is he mental ???

[@donman9154]

The LNDP are considering rolling-out a version of U.B.I. to win the next election (similar to how Trudeau promised to legalise weed in 2015). I hope Canadians don't fall for it (but I guarantee that the illegal migrants & "newcomers" will all happily vote for it). Canada is failing by design.

[@mariogavin]

Please God make it so. Trudeau must go.

[@frangitofrangito]

No **** Sherlock. 😂😂😂

[@timothythomson719]

Go Rhinoceros Party of Canada!! 🦏🦏🇨🇦🇨🇦

[@batmanandrobin1587]

Trudeau is off the track since 2015

[@The_world_at_large]

Lol hopefully rare, also hopefully impossible lol. I’m just sick of a government that preaches inclusion but if you disagree with their viewpoints you’re punched down on lol. This government sucks balls

[@johnc4814]

#wackotrudeau

[@bonniehughes9549]

Are you Liberal?

[@Disgruntled_Canadian]

Of course they are, can’t you tell 😂

[@markgallicano]

good program

[@ChuckHiggins-bq8vr]

more ideas less vitriol please

[@ElainEmail-m7q]

A rich man born from birth, Trudeau lives in an elite class lifestyle since birth. How can he change to think he can understand the average 99% Canadians? His retirement income will be speaking tours, books he pays people to write about him, and of course as a talking head commenting on politics....😂😂😂what an insane future for this lucky rich man !

[@MrRCWASHINGTON]

Relax he can remain in power we can't have those freedom loving small government people in charge. A OIC might be needed to keep saving Canada.

[@Grams_]

The polls will balance them selves don’t worry about it trudope

[@Susan-m6v8i]

trust the science

[@lynnmacleod5005]

20 points will be 30 points in a years time 100 000 mortgages renew across canada every month, on àverage ,,,,,he wiĺl lose 200,000 voters each and every months for the next 17 months. 😂😂😂😂

[@bonniehughes9549]

If you are i am blocking you

[@ConfusedFlowerPot-ds3gy]

This is why boomers shouldn’t be allowed to have internet

[@MaryLepp-uh1tn]

This whole mess is why young adults shouldn't vote. Boomers did not make this mess...​@@ConfusedFlowerPot-ds3gy

[@Disgruntled_Canadian]

They are liberals

[@Disgruntled_Canadian]

I will block them too. Listening to liberal propaganda of any kind, literally makes me want to vomit.

[@MaryLepp-uh1tn]

@@Disgruntled_Canadian really? 60 yr old and my 63 yr old boomer hubby have never voted liberal or ndp in our lives, neither did any of of parents. Ya, dude go smoke another Doogie and let the adults talk.

[@amandastevenson4948]

Look at the comments 20 percent lol

[@glenrobinson916]

Is this guy a paid government influencer, it sure sounds like it. I am unsubscribing to your channel.

[@Flora7-Lan]

Prime Minister Trudeau is winning. Canada is the first country to cut interest rate to 4.75 %in G7 in June 2024,after inflation rate is going down for 4 months. Canada inflation rate was 2.7 %in April 2024, double lower than global inflation rate 5.9 %.

[@rocketruss3405]

When inflation , interest rates, gasoline, groceries, liquor were all increasing, you Liberal supporters were all saying “ Its not the Liberals fault, it’s happening everywhere “ Now you are saying “look at the good job we are doing, interest rates are going down”, you can’t have it both ways. Fact is, the Liberals carbon taxes and energy policies have directly led to higher grocery prices and lower GDP. Automatic yearly tax increases on alcohol are not the result of “external forces”. Divisive political policies, that pit urban against rural and non- firearms owners against legal license firearm owners for political gain while ignoring the true causes of the problem is not good governance. Not to mention the tens of millions if not billions of dollars in cost for their confiscation (“buy back”) of legally acquired firearms. I am sorry to say that I have actually voted for the Liberals in the past. Time for Trudeau and the Liberals to go .

[@lavernekeller2283]

Okay bot keep spreading your intense and false data, proving how much of losers the entire libranos and nondemocratic parties are and I for one look forward to seeing both parties reduced to zero seats in parliament after the next election. So either quit or tell your CCP masters to go pound sand loser.

[@lavernekeller2283]

@@rocketruss3405 Well said I just wish I could give you a million thumbs up because you put the facts out there perfectly so that only a complete moron like Flora7-lan could think otherwise, proving irrefutably that it's nothing but a CCP bot pushing for the libs to stay in power so the ChiComs can continue to use them to infiltrate the west.

[@Tomyum19]

Inflation is dropping because the economy is declining. That’s not exactly a win.

[@user-ul4ew7vt7h]

If there is no other opposition to Trudeau, I will stick with the devil I know😢

[@Disgruntled_Canadian]

Wow 🤯 well, you can’t fix st*pid

[@dianalockie2353]

Justin is delusional

[@dinomarchioli3650]

Trudeau should fear for his life if the media continues to prop him up with lies! People are fedup with him, leave please and let us begin to clean up this mess.

[@drumminghands6356]

We as Canadians question what he does as Prime Minister and if he is capable of doing his job?😮