How Expensive is NVIDIA Really? The Answer Might Surprise You...

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👨‍💼Brian Feroldi is an author (amzn.to/3JVr9Q0), investor, KZbinr, and financial educator. He's been investing in the stock market since 2004. He's made EVERY investing mistake you can make. He now spends his time teaching others how to invest better. Brian sends a FREE weekly email called Long Term Mindset (longtermmindse...), where he shares one investing lesson and 6 pieces of simple content that encourage readers to think and do better with their money.
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[@JimMcNutty]

I think you buy NVDA today for the momentum not the valuation

[@roccopietrofesa7914]

I don't think you are accounting for the software option. Not only are they the industry leader in chip R&D, they have developed the most advanced and user friendly software packages for implementing machine learning. Its a sticky ecosystem and they provide the best hardware in the entire world. Their competitors are not even close in either category.

[@midwestcannabis]

I concur

[@citizenpunx]

I bought my mom $500 worth back in the day it’s now over $18,000 lol

[@mohammedal-r471]

bravo god bless you

[@KSunMMA]

my Mom turned $34,000 NVDA investment 3 years turn into $600,000

[@Nvidia-Lover]

I don't remember how much I spent, but I started at the dip of 2018 with M1 account and kept adding. I am now holding 86,500 shares.

[@MariaLarsen09]

@@Nvidia-Lover While the market is promising, expert guidance is essential for effective portfolio management.

[@MariaLarsen09]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until theyre being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy setbacks, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat

[@michaelmiddleton3311]

No one knows better than Huang, the cyclical nature of the biz. So he's introduced a software support component (CUDA), which will provide regular recurring revenue and elevates switching costs. I've held it for at least 6 years, and I don't expect NVDA to cycle out until possibly the 2nd qtr. of 2025. Regardless of the boom or bust thing with chips, I expect this to company to remain in the top 10 most valuable companies indefinitely. Huang is that much of a visionary.

[@alexng4]

You are wrong that competitors can come up with a cheaper alternative then Nvidia. Nvidia is creating chips that are cheaper then its own current ones.

[@ananya9135]

Exactly it’s the scale at which NVDA operates that makes it easy to produce cheaper chips . For another company to do that they will be in massive debt. The only risk I see for NVDA is for the govt to try to break it up into different businesses .

[@johnsalvatore1473]

And who’s receiving an ungodly amount of mount to innovate? Ndvidia. Your opinion is just that, an opinion.

[@loganlasvegas]

Well it took $10B and 5 years to develop Blackwell, so not a lot of companies public or private have that kind of stout. NVDA will continue to command premium pricing and margins if AI is as big as expected. And they’re not done yet.

[@thiagomassa9807]

That's hilarious, it's literally 2 h100s glued together. Look at Intel, they have similar hardware. The only advantage nvidia has is cuda, the software.

[@Nvidia-Lover]

@@thiagomassa9807 😂 sad.

[@Nvidia-Lover]

@@thiagomassa9807 Intel is good with #30. 😁

[@Nvidia-Lover]

Thia: You can do it, too. Go get superglue and glue 2 lays chips together 😁

[@bpolat]

Its just glued H100 chips on a board. Nvidia making fraction of revenue of google yet has 1.4x more market cap. Its extemely overvalued, hyped stock.

[@BellTunnel]

Great video, Brian. Also, for anyone interested, Beth Kindig recently wrote an article in Forbes stating NVDA will reach a market cap of 10 trillion by 2030. She’s the bull who famously predicted in August 2021 that NVDA would exceed Apple’s market cap within 5 years.

[@alexng4]

Yes, great call by her. But she also had alot of crappy stocks calls along the way also too. Past prediction doesnt mean guarantee anything in the future.

[@KSunMMA]

Cathie Wood predicted Tesla in the past correctly, that implies she will be extremely wealthy in Tesla in the future

[@bpolat]

@@KSunMMACatie wood is worst fund manager in the world. She sold Nvidia for Twilio just before major Nvidia rally start.

[@Larry-jh8gf]

​@@alexng4what crappy stocks did Beth pick?

[@alexng4]

@@Larry-jh8gf if you follow her you'll know.. I'm not hater..I like and she's pretty smart. Just dont assume that every analyst predictions will come to frition.

[@eaviram]

I second the recommendation to follow Beth Kindig. She does understand tech. and it's worth understanding. Our family does come from tech. and this is a revolution. NVDA is no longer cyclical. It's a whole new world (with A.I.), we're at the beginning of it, and NVDA is leading the charge.

[@hallelujah3314]

How can you say NVDA is no longer cyclical when it has boom-bust cycles in its 20 year history? Are you a new NVDA investor?

[@Nvidia-Lover]

@eaviram Congratulation to you. If you wrote this comment, I am sure you must have been a big winner in investing in NVDA.

[@soup100]

it took NVDA tens years to get here. It will take at least 4 years for someone to challenge their margins.

[@Flygal5]

Brian I think one thing in Nvidia’s favor in trying to beat those numbers is that they can buy up all the fab space. They can negotiate TMC etc and pay up front for the fab space. Stopping competitors from being able to build competing chips at the scale needed to displace NVDA

[@shashanksharma7487]

It may have been cyclical in past but with AI chips, being used in data centers, it should not be cyclical in future. I’m also someone who doesn’t know Chips technology but based on AI demand, it seems they will be growing steadily.

[@jasonandrews7355]

I keep selling off chunks of my position to keep it in check...I started selling at around $34 (split adjusted,) and have probably sold 4 or 5 lots since. It hurts every time, but I just can't have 20+% of my net worth in one company.

[@stephenmeier7053]

i really could't live without this information, lets call the news next. bragging to own shares is just pathetic

[@bdhanes]

Thanks for this comment. Our NVDA shares ballooned to be like 30% of our net worth and we've been AGONIZING on selling. Finally sold most of it at $116.90 today. Even if it rockets up from here, we're thankful to be out from under the weight of it.

[@QGDeclined]

So you're telling me there's a chance...😏

[@hirokitakei9272]

Given their current MOAT, high R&D investments and developping their softwares products, it's clear they will keep going up. On top of Huang being a visionary, this company is here to stay. NVIDIA is the proof as to why engineers should be CEO rather than CFO taking their spot.

[@ryanchinh1040]

I own Nvidia stock over 12 years I still haven't sell any Nvidia stock.

[@JeikuAnimeReview]

How much?

[@KingsOfKingNejashiKingsO-uh6ql]

Thank you sir

[@hunterphung3638]

Nvidia is less cyclical it is growing its data center. It will have a complete ecosystem like google.

[@user-en5is4lr9v]

NVDA is still cheap. Stop the drama. It deserves all the accolades it’s been given.

[@jaeyoungchoi6790]

Hey Brain, any plans to do some long videos where the two of you sit down and go through a company and its earning report for about an hour?? I miss those videos man

[@stoffelbrian]

Not in the immediate future, but it's not off the table. Keep your eyes open for some new ever-green videos from Feroldi starting soon

[@wonderz3217]

It was the Motley Fool that led me to NVDA back in 2018. If you only own 1 stock in the next 20 years? It was NVDA! As a Motley writer, How did u miss that? I have been telling about this co to everyone I know when all they knew was Tesla, Amazon and Apple…hence it has been my largest holding but only few listened. Oh well…

[@muratshogenov9563]

Do you invest in nvda?

[@Cygx]

I thought it nvidia was overvalued at 800, but now its up 50% in a couple months. Wish I bought some XD

[@fedcba810]

Nvidia is about to change business model towards AI software and a lot more robotics/autonomous? However, it is the future 3-5 years from now.

[@stoffelbrian]

That could easily be the thing that helps it leap over that revenue growth bar

[@brettk9316]

I mean will take time for Amazon or AMD or anyone to catch up the NVDA maybe years think they good for quite a while.

[@griesemermd]

Great video. Thanks.

[@408Machine]

I sold Nvidia at 400 and 600 because I kept hearing it was due for a correction 😢 Don’t know when it will slow down but it wouldn’t surprise me if it does another 2X by the end of 2025

[@3triska3]

I will give you a small prediction of mine. If there won't be WW3, a stock market crash, or some solar storm, Nvidia will be worth $500 a share in the next five years. And I am trying to be really conservative here... There will be ups and downs obviously, but... If that happens - buy some more! Hope after five years they will be even stronger in software. Some self-driving and robots would be nice too. But what do I know - I am just a guy. In ten years the world will be a very different place to live in. Enjoy it!

[@Martin-qm2lg]

WW3 I’m getting more concerned about. kzbin.infowGaSb6KOR4k?si=VwlCZwc-9yqz7z8R

[@Jokester1338]

You put an evaluation price based on essentially nothing lol

[@Nvidia-Lover]

$500 in 5 years is a little difficult but it is achievable. Beth Kendig predicts market cap of 10T in 2030. She was the first analyst wrote the article about Nvidia would someday grow bigger than Apple. Back then Apple was the biggest company on earth.

[@LordBagdanoff]

Watch it hit 200 in a matter of time 😂

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Thanks!

[@odoacredacalcutta5085]

if it's so expensive then why the average price target given by most analysts is still growing despite the pull back ? the average is now at 150+.

[@jingmu1289]

Very well said. Thank you

[@5ogmi]

From where can I get the calculator?

[@weho_brian]

5 Trillion for GPUs,. 10 Trillion from GPUs + Software

[@jk35260]

The narrative is that LLM/AI is leading the world into the AI revolution. The truth is everyone is guessing, even the AI experts do not know how AI will revolutionize the world. The potential is we move to a future with robots with varying level of humanlike intelligence. It is both a scary and yet exciting future but nobody has the crystal ball to the future. Nvidia itself is transforming into not just a major AI chip provider but also a software platform for the development and training of AI. It is also positioning itself as the core provider of embodied AI. All these are in its preliminary stage and some of world best AI experts are working to advance AI to human level intelligence in many areas. The study and engineering of intelligence while is not new has just progressed from narrow to more general intelligence. While the recent advancement in AI is significant, it has yet to progress to the level where we get robots like those in Star Wars. Some think we are just a few years away but nobody really knows. We live in exciting times and it looks like the ride will be wild.

[@hallelujah3314]

nvda's valuation is objectively richly priced at this point. If you're a momentum trader this might be a buy but once sentiment shifts things could get real ugly in the short term. I don't care if it keeps going up and up, that would mean there would be too much risk for me as an investor, so ill only add more to my position if it goes back to reasonable valuation levels.

[@jeffrose5622]

States multiple times that he doesn't understand the industry yet seems to think that it's overpriced. He doesn't understand the hardware, the software, the lack of competition or anything that Jensen is working on. Not a very good analysis.

[@stoffelbrian]

The goal: show what needs to happen to justify today's price. Quote from end: "It's really important investors understand what is baked into today's stock price. The more you know about the company, the more comfortable you might be with these assumptions...I can understand an investment if you understand the space."

[@buseini]

Apple also tried to build a car. We all know how that went

[@hunterphung3638]

a little bit expensive but not crazy expensive. I just sold my NVIDia last week.happy 3X profit.

[@itisim]

I'm riding nvidia for 3yrs it will still be in the lead after that I don't know

[@suekuan1540]

What company can sell 1 trillion dollars innsales pwr year?

[@ranjitumakanthan994]

It’s beginning of nvda still have an opportunity to buy and wait for few years

[@camilorios7821]

Could you please do a review on Micron prior to their earnings' report this Wednesday please? Thanks bro and we are almost 100K subs! :D

[@breadbutter8708]

He sounds like a hater

[@TheMurrblake]

Your historical boom and bust cycle was for gaming chips only. Paradigm shift bubba. There will always be cycles but you are comparing apples and oranges.

[@MoneyEducationWithReality]

I bought 32k in the earlier years it's now worth over 250k.

[@antball775]

Reminds me a lot of pandemic Tesla the hype that is the question to me is this a hardware change over or is AI something that’s going to actually transition into something else I look at 5G it was supposed to be the next big thing but it’s just meh

[@d060413]

You miss the point! Its revenue is accelerating because of the AI boom. The up and downs before 2023 is because its main business is for gaming

[@rigo.garcia]

The race to 3 trillion for the others is on.

[@aristotleaquino3067]

You need to update the channel name. Where is Feroldi hiding?

[@FlyoverGroup]

I was very fortunate to buy Nvidia five years ago. It has now become almost 18% of my total portfolio, which is made up of 160 different stocks. I am thinking about trimming some, but it’s hard to pull the trigger given how well the stock ihas done over the last five years. Even after watching this rational video. 😂

[@Nvidia-Lover]

I bought Nvidia a few years before you. Nvidia is now 98% of my stock portfolio. The only other stocks that I have is ASML.

[@midwestcannabis]

Party On! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

[@JohnTPapadopoulos]

i find the valuation very reasonable with a f p/e of 48.78. Of course other companies are going to fail to produce a similar product in the next 10 years for many reasons.All of these companies failed since 10 years (see GGL) and they can not pump in infinite amounts of money for reasearch and development. We are talking about 1-3b per quarter for companies who already made it so far (AMD, NVDA, INTL). Where should the competitors come from? AMD and Intel are putting even more money than NVDA to catch up, with the latter bleeding financially right now.

[@bluezaton]

At some point it's not worth the investment, right? Those who got in early will sell and if the growth slows or stops the price will never reach all time highs again. (Bubble pops)

[@MatthewMS.]

🖤💚📈🇺🇸

[@midwestcannabis]

Party✌️🥳

[@bpolat]

Nvidia is extremely overvalued. Retail invertor buying FOMO.

[@trevorm9551]

I like you, and your channel, but motley fool is nothing to boast about.. I’ve lost thousands due to them sense the pandemic based on their “top picks” in their paid subscription sent to me in a fancy folder in the mail 🙄