How Game Theory Explains The Expanse

The Expanse is well known for its scientific accuracy but the show's political conflict also contains a lot of realism. Today we use political science and game theory to think about why the discovery of the Protomolecule incited an arms race among the major powers in the Sol System.
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[@geoffgreen2105]

"My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough." - Chrisjen Avasarala

[@shinaxia7474]

I think I am just coming to a similar conclusion about my life.

[@androkguz]

"I can't tell the difference between the expanse and real life anymore" I feel you. That's the true mark of a great great show

[@pyeitme508]

It's just a theory, A GAME THEORY!

[@reeeee1650]

Bruh, you're on a wrong channel

[@pyeitme508]

@@reeeee1650 well the title has game theory, so LMAO!

[@macmcleod1188]

Man I used to watch that Channel. I think it got crowded out by project Farm or the history guy.

[@codyray2096]

That channel makes it impossible to find videos on actual game theory

[@benmerkle7817]

I thought that he was talking about that too.

[@jamoecw]

"well actually you can't grow coffee on mars." you can. mars chooses not to as their hydroponics space is limited, and thus it is better spent feeding their people, producing air to breath, or helping to terraform the planet.

[@iona2225]

But so much of this can be done at once. Even the Fremen from Dune grew coffee and they live on a Sand Worm infested hellhole, where arable land isn't exactly plentiful. The Coffee Must Flow.

[@GenerationFilms]

😂😂😂🤦🏼‍♂️

[@dbadaddy7386]

@Mikê'e Stark How nice to see a civilized person here. One can partake of the more refined things in life, or one can drink barbarian swill derived from a bean. There is no civet cat tea, because tea drinkers know not to drink cat poop.

[@RGC-gn2nm]

So Mars got those high end coffee pods from their hated enemy???

[@wingracer1614]

@@dbadaddy7386 You can keep your tea but your Scottish brothers do make a fine whisky.

[@jeffbenefiel2676]

"We could broadcast what we know and wait for Earth, Mars and the Belt to join hands and start singing Koombaya" - Joe Miller

[@cmdrTremyss]

Classic... Josephus Miller

[@Benjumanjo]

Chrisjen Avasala said that

[@yodaslovetoy]

"Coffee" - Captain James Holden

[@willis32]

"Lasagne" - Alex Kamal

[@Everthus4]

cheese - Joe Miller

[@RGC-gn2nm]

"Peaches" - Amos

[@ThatOneGuy-iv9sn]

“Single word that is a food” - Character from show the expanse

[@exorikk]

"*cowboy shit*" - Alex

[@andyz3225]

This show's so freaking amazing. Naomi's speech at the end of season 2 is narrative gold in so many ways, particularly how it serves as character development for Holden. Up to that point his entire mission was to find and destroy any and all samples of the protomolocule. In my opinion a paradigm shift makes for fantastic character development, particularly of a protagonist.

[@thekul121]

As a former student of international relations, this was a great explanation. Social Identity theory (from the world of psychology), also gives a good insight into the tribalism of the show. As humans, we naturally divide the world into categories, including people (earth, mars, the belters). We then figure out which groups we belong to (I am a belter). In order to make these categories as clear as possible, we emphasise similarities within our group and differences between groups (we have our own language, traditions, values etc.). The final piece of the puzzle is that by making the groups we belong to a part of our identity, we attach our self-esteem to the group. That means we have a strong emotional need to see our group as the best, and by extension, other groups as inferior/hostile/evil. Tribes can be different sizes, from your family to your whole planet, but once they're set, it can be very difficult to break from them

[@irondiver2034]

You might be too young to remember this but it’s those same a-holes from the Rand Corporation that told Macnamara how to fight the Vietnam war. Look how wonderful that turned out. Theory and planning have their place but a society, organization need to be able to depart as the situation on the ground changes.

[@colin9630]

Love that you love The Expanse as much or more than me! Keep it up man. I feel it's my life mission to share this severely underrated show with everyone. PS: clean that dust off your TV! or un-focus the camera there haha

[@jordanbarkow4065]

"He's losing his mind... And I'm reaping all the benefits..." Name that movie reference. Also James "Cup of Joe" Holden. Also Ben your neuroses due to shelter-in-place is my spirit animal

[@Rubicon2305]

Wedding Singer

[@willis32]

Can't believe American Ben didnt end with "But thats just a theory, a game theory"

[@ryavix]

Copy Right issues?

[@72APTU72E]

While I'm loving this Expanse content, boy do they make me want season five that much more. It had a projected date of late 2020 or early 2021, but who knows if that's still possible with current events. Can't rush quality though.

[@dbadaddy7386]

Although other books have had adaptations with more fidelity to the original material, The Expanse has done the best job of maintaining the spirit of the books within both the advantages and disadvantages of a different medium.

[@zachchartier570]

I just wanted to comment saying I really enjoyed the video Ben. I presume that you probably have more work than usual now that Allen is sick and I hope that it's not overwhelming you. So just know that the videos you guys put out genuinely make peoples' days better.

[@GenerationFilms]

Thanks so much such a nice and thoughtful comment! Means a lot! 😁

[@yeahso7420]

Same with the ability to fight. Either you and your enemy know how to fight, or only your enemy knows how to fight and you don't. Idealist: Well what if everybody agrees to never fight? - starts singing kumbaya - Human Nature: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[@jamoecw]

not sure if this is the best Generation Film video or not, but it is a serious contender. good job.

[@GenerationFilms]

Thanks for watching! 😁

[@Aezeus]

Best intro ever

[@Raeinok]

The proto molecule reminds me of the Dead Space Obelisks.

[@jipillow1]

This is excellent, thank you

[@tracymetherell8744]

Logical and well thought out.

[@bhuvaneshs.k638]

The Expanse 🔥🔥 I can watch theory videos on this series all day

[@elroysez8333]

Fantastic as always...

[@Devils4TheWin]

The Expanse was an RPG game idea designed by Franck, Abraham and G.R.R. Martin suggested making it into a novel.

[@Alex-jv8zq]

Take a shot everytime he says "classic game theory bro"

[@mahlkov]

I did...can't stand up! lol

[@jerrysstories711]

Applied to another field, this analysis would conclude that we shouldn't bother restricting our research on human cloning, genetic engineering, and eugenics. Discuss.

[@briantien7146]

However there is an overwhelming moral opposition to unrestricted research in that field. There are so few scientists willing to go down that path that they are slammed and shut away or just lack the resources to attempt such research because no one supports it. Basically, everyone becomes a James Holden in the topic of extensive genetic manipulation beyond what is necessary. Game Theory still applies. If one party wants to do it, they'll be viewed as monsters and shunned. If they restrict their research to necessities, they can actually provide important research. If they refuse to, they get left behind. Until someone breaks the status quo and advances further, no one else has a reason to do so.

[@jerrysstories711]

@@briantien7146 Good point about Game Theory still applying. Adding the 3rd outcome, (Victory, defeat, pariah status) makes it a more complicated strategy problem. And still, examining this scenario on the level of geopolitics, it's only good national strategy is to shrug off your moral opposition and work in deep secrecy, or to simply shrug off your pariah status and entice your neighbors to transact business with you anyway. It's a fairly popular govt strategy!

[@briantien7146]

@@jerrysstories711 There are moral boundaries that even governments refuse to cross. By that point its a matter of retaining a shred of humanity. On a broader scale of geopolitics, we're in that box where everyone agrees that extensive human genetic engineering is morally wrong and goes against what we as human beings stand for. I believe there's international treaties that prohibit it. Its a Pandora's box that few are curious of and no one wants to open. From a purely realist point, genetically engineered soldiers would be the most powerful. But at what cost? Is anyone ready to handle the fallout from such an issue? Morals should always go hand in hand with realism. Either extreme gives ugly scenarios.

[@RealestSteve6969]

Naomi: "Cant let the belt fall behind." The belt was never supposed to be ahead.

[@dbadaddy7386]

If a belt is on a head, it's not being worn properly.

[@RealestSteve6969]

@@dbadaddy7386 🤣

[@AnuragSharma-pi4yr]

Although game theory could be applied to Expanse but the best sci-fi representation of it comes from Blindsight where in a First Contact scenario a crew with many different specialist in different fields and one of them is a guy who is an hyperspecialist in game theory with implants that effectively help in his work

[@mirtexxan]

The prisoner's dilemma is mentioned in later books, and plays a crucial role for the education of one future protagonist :P

[@Tenebris_Sint]

“A Beautiful Mind” came out in 2001. Had to check as I thought it released after “Gladiator” from 2000.

[@akeemclinton6254]

Hello American Ben. I love u so much. I hope you're having a great day.

[@richardchild6708]

Thank you

[@TheGreyTurtleEntertainment]

Can we just appreciate how hard he went out of his way to not overtly reference the GT channels? Like I see everyone referencing GT in the comments (because apparently they've taken over the term "Game Theory" that much), and I'm just here appreciating how hard it must have been to resist the easy joke in the vid XD

[@nobleman9393]

0:04 Fus Ro Dah!!!

[@mmb628jr2]

Damnnn you broke it down pretty well.. I loved the show without the devils in details- but because it seems like realistic actions in realistic situations in a nonreal time.. Drummer plays a good part in the Game Theory.. book wise she’s condensed into one character. On the show shes def a Factor. Miller/Julie were Factors. Enjoyed your Presentation.

[@zachthecool4321]

Teresa Duarte in Book 8 has an entire scene (actually 3) about game theory and interpretation of it.

[@lastechocorp1841]

im getting some flash backs to the game that the daughter of Winston Durat discusses in Tiamats wrath book 8 and the events that followed

[@barrybend7189]

Safest Sci-fi FTL drives video please.

[@charleszoffuto8381]

Did you read the books? The prisoner's dilemma is big in the last couple of books.

[@mmb628jr2]

I love the show... I read the books after season 3 waiting for season 4. The Show is on track to be Iconic.

[@androkguz]

Game theory also explains why Earth was "right" to start a war against Mars. As the show tells us, at that point Earth wins the war in all simulated scenarios. Their numbers advantage beats the Marcians' technological advantage. But 5 years forward in the future, all the scenarios tell the reverse story: Mars' tech has advanced enough that now it wins. So Earth has two options: 1a) start the war now and win or 2a) wait and see what happens. If they take option two, then the one with the options is Mars. They can either 1b) start the war against Earth and win or 2b) Let earth be. or even 3b) Just bully earth into giving up whatever asteroid or location or anything they want because they are stronger If they take option 2b, then they have to give up things to earth that they don't want to. So mars always takes option 3b (or 1b if earth wants to fight back). So because they always take down earth in the future if let be, then earth "has" to take option 1a. So Erinwright was kind of right. Of course, in real life, more options can be found or created, but peace seems like a bad plan for earth

[@kinkynecromorph6754]

Haha I’m happy to me one of the few to get the Rico joke

[@darthgamer2014]

Me: sees title. Also me: oh no are they now responding to videos. (Don't know wether or not he made one on the expanse but still).

[@josephburchanowski4636]

This is the reason why I never expect North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons. It would be suicidal for them to do so (although they do have non-nuclear cards in their hand too, like the shit ton of artillery they have in range of Seoul).

[@hresvelgr7193]

Sadly in the end the Roci's sample turns out to be the last sample by Season 5.

[@TLhikan]

(Expanse book spoilers): I hope the tv series continues all the way through the novels; it'll be interesting to hear your takes on Laconia and Duarte in particular.

[@avipuchalapalli]

(spoiler) Plus Bobbie's death!

[@willis32]

@@avipuchalapalli I looked, i shouldn't have looked you said spoiler. Dammit I'm too curious.

[@HayderAbdulridha]

Why did I look, WHY WHY WHY. Now the expanse won't be as enjoyable. JK, it's always entertaining and enjoyable.

[@ReddwarfIV]

How can Duarte be so brilliant yet such a _moron?_

[@TLhikan]

@@ReddwarfIV All his successes fed his hubris. Duarte thought he and the "Goths" were in a prisoner's dilemma, when in actuality the situation was more like a four year old with a stick vs. a wild tiger.

[@Viewable11]

The option the carriers the lowest possibility of the weapon of mass destruction (WMD) being used is if only the strongest power has it, because the strongest power does *not* depend on using the WMD to stay the strongest power or squash a rebellion of a weaker power. The weakest power has the strongest reason to use a WMD to become the #1 power. "Naomi is right to give the proto-molecule to the Belt". No, because that led to a Belter faction trading it with Mars in exchange for a stealth combat fleet which the faction uses to start war against Earth using WMD which costs the life of several million people on Earth.

[@shinaxia7474]

Cool, really well explained. Only in this case you still have to take into account the personality and ideologies of the "partner in crime". In my opinion, the most viable solution is where Holden admits to stealing. As for Naoumi, it depends at what point of their acquaintance. If at the beginning ... She is likely to lay the blame on Holden. The poor guy will get 8 years just because he is addicted to coffee :(

[@TheGreatUnwashedThing]

This video is very good and is going to be ironic when we get to Tiamat's Wrath...

[@nono6167]

In a classic prisoners dilemma the total sentences for both parties confessing would exceed the length of the individual sentences from the split outcomes.

[@dragongamer4753]

Game theory is actually featured heavily in book 8 of the expanse. Its brought up when humanity tries to communicate with the aliens that killed the protomolicule.

[@rookiebeotch]

The moral of the story is don't threaten to shoot the girl's dog.

[@sorrento114]

James "Cup of Joe" Holden😂

[@MrSquigglies]

Correct me if I'm wrong but as of right now, only the belt now has the protomolecule?...

[@BenjCano2020]

You are wrong. As of the end of season 5 Laconia has the only remaining sample.

[@nicolaiveliki1409]

I'd say there are also proximity factors involved in humans choosing cooperative or competitive strategies in the context of Game Theory. After all, our meekish human bodies only survived because we trusted our tribe members

[@bobriemersma]

No, the Protomolecule is not alien life. It is an artificial construct. This is a red herring dispelled pretty early on and for slow audiences it was even stated so late in Season 3.

[@wolfgangcomacho]

Ben, can you cover the aliens in the movie Titan AE please?

[@ondrejrolnik1631]

Oh, the prisoner's dillema. Have you read The Expanse, book 8? It is a prominent part of the book.

[@Benjumanjo]

I am intrigued by how James Holden and his idealism can somehow derail the purely rational series of decisions that would have incidentally led to the extinction of humanity.

[@catherine9468]

Can you do a video on the Daedalus Platform from Max steel vs IGF-Atlas from Voltron

[@carsoncasmirri3874]

It doesn’t leave me feeling worse off about the world. I already knew what game theory I just didn’t know that’s what it was called. I always just knew it as humans will always do what is in their best interest within generally agreed upon but still very large parameters.

[@1000nod]

your thought, the Jovian and The Saturnian systems would have become the next power after the belt if not for the gates.

[@mahlkov]

American Ben needs a blo....a hug.

[@therubicon]

2:46 just wait for the 9th novel. It will all be better American Ben.

[@Techischannel]

Actualy you can grow coffee on mars using controlled enviroments, aka. greenhouses. So Mars Grown coffee is completely plausible.

[@macmcleod1188]

One problem? You said they got four years rather than none instead of four years rather than one. This after you said the stakes were 0 / 4 compared to 1/8.

[@captainmorgan4179]

Life won't be a same without coffee

[@jairokasso9351]

what is a PROTOMOLECULE? i dont watch the show so i have no frikkin idea... but the game theory i understood it and is great.

[@seanmccurdy80]

To oversimplify, an alien substance that can transform matter, particularly biological matter, into something it desires. Also can bend the rules of physics, should it so desire.

[@seanmccurdy80]

@AKUJIRULE that's certainly one of the major jobs, but does not fully explain it. See the acts of the proto molecule through all of season 4.

[@gumgumdookuin7963]

14:11 She's a Quarian! Listen to her voice! That voice is familiar!

[@LadyKjell]

I've always found myself sympathetic towards the Belt and I only cared more about Beltalowda over time. I don't blame them for wanting protomolecule, given the situation. Of course now we know how dangerous it really is.

[@Benjumanjo]

I found belters to be uncivilized, barbaric, and cruel. They are a tribal people, they are a little people, and they will stay that way. I would know, because I also hail from a fractured, tribalistic society that fought for it’s independence from foreign colonizers.

[@UnknownPerson-xe8hx]

Sip tea

[@Everthus4]

I came here for fun. Now i'm expert in game theory used to better understand humanity far future. Thanks.

[@morganb6717]

as was requested of us "something."

[@M29WeaselDriver]

If you could captain any ship from the expanse universe with you own hand picked crew which ship and what characters?

[@the_biggest_chungus7508]

"And why would it be the MCRN Donnager?"

[@machiavellianoverture1747]

Was this an audition for the RAND institute or nah

[@tyshingleton7005]

BioWare used this in KoToR, had a hypothetical situation where they you v Zalbar in interrogation and had to confess for your sentence against him!

[@RayHorn5128088056]

Three taken three at a time should give nine outcomes.

[@Emanon...]

Sadavir Even the name sounds like an insult

[@timezerohour8864]

A leader of a nation wants a 100 nukes and matching delivery system for them no problem. A leader wants just a nuke and a matching delivery system big problem because he wants to use it.

[@republiccommando6104]

The Beast Mothership from Homeworld Cataclysm

[@mgg114]

American Ben! We need a Naomi Nagata video. Pls, help me like her... She is the only character I don't believe

Note: "Rocinante" is not "Rosinante" but (to you, English speaking people) closer to "Rothinante".

[@AndrewThibeault]

*cough cough* Tiamat's Wrath *cough cough*

[@myman7442]

Nice I'm early and also "uMm YoU cAnT gRoW cOfFeE oN mArS"

[@raptor07wm39]

Hey

[@jwrfilms]

Its funny this is a key thing in tiamet's wrath with duarte's daughter

[@stu42000]

I read it more than once and other than a lesson to teach her leadership skills, I'm not sure I followed. Until now that I think about it, maybe it helped her reach a decision in the end.

[@nolearystream]

I'm about 30% through and it's been mentioned multiple times.

[@nobodyfromnowhere3597]

That's why teach game theory to your partners in crime.

[@kblargh]

Except the Protomolecule doesn't work as a deterrent until it can be controlled and applied, anymore than enriched uranium without a nuclear device and an ICBM. Yeah you can use it to infect things, but planet-buster nukes are a whole lot better if you want something destroyed.

[@joshl6275]

Protomolecules potential to shift the balance of power extends way beyond its utility as a WMD. Protomolecule defies known physics and can seemingly manipulate not just gravity but also biology and travel across interstellar space. So, to anyone with a little foresight, even a limited understanding of such a material would mean wielding a great deal of raw power. But at a bare minimum, just possessing a sample of it would give you a degree of political leverage that is at the very least comparable to sitting on top of an arsenal of planet killing nukes. In other words, he who possesses it possesses power.

[@Wzrd8]

>can't trust a belter fuckin A, for all the talk about sharing they sure act like welwallas all the time to each other. You see more belters get vented by other belters than all inners combined not counting eros.

[@timothyjacks1788]

How's Allan doin

[@khamulangmar2111]

Something.

[@OneEyedMonkey9000]

🤗

[@kirkbolas4985]

Something

[@rockspoon6528]

I know she's right, but I still loathe her for it.

[@robertpalumbo9089]

If a game is futile then the only way to win is not to play War games

[@MrSquigglies]

And also you're always complaining about how hot it is your air conditioning working? That's kind of my thing.

[@filfa8420]

Im real early

[@starleigh6680]

"But thats just a theory, a game theory" -matpat/austin

[@jerryhampton5755]

Game theory is about as useful in real life as auto resolve is in total war. If you have way more men it’s fine.

[@noobabilitysolos]

Clickbait?

[@L0stEngineer]

I have found that game theory has many real life application, however the expanse style game theory should never be used in my relationship with my girl. Star wars has better advise for this. "Let the wookie win"