How I Predict a Runner’s Marathon Time - Data Dive

[@zacsborntorunrunningadvent3441]

He did well still securing that 2:58. Great work guys. 🎉

[@timothytrewin]

Great video! I'm running Edinburgh next month and I have been training for that sub3. Some workouts make me think it's possible for me and others make me think it's so far out of reach. But regardless of my result I know I'm the fittest I've ever been. Thanks for all the info you put out 🙏

[@zdravkozoric7844]

You know but better call Saul (Will).

[@drwilloconnor]

Thanks, Tim. The Edinburgh marathon looks cool. I did the parkrun there a few years back.

[@jaidenthomson4414]

I’ll see you there; we will cross together brother !

[@timothytrewin]

@@jaidenthomson4414 let's do it💪 I'm going to need all the help I can get bro 😆

[@timothytrewin]

@@jaidenthomson4414 let's get it bro 💪 going to need all the help I can get 😆

[@IRunDaily]

Cheers for this info, Will. Really interesting for someone aspiring to get close to the hours in the next couple of years. I especially like that you use power as I find I always default back to that when I'm racing.

[@drwilloconnor]

All good, mate. I've noticed power is slowly getting adopted by more and more people. It's a valuable metric. By no means is it the best, but when used with pace and HR it’s incredibly helpful.

[@MarcusBiskobing1]

Awesome video! Perfect timing on my end! Thanks Dr. Will

[@drwilloconnor]

Thanks. I hope it all goes well.

[@crudden]

Hey Will! As someone aiming to break 3 hours soon for the first time, I found this video really helpful, thanks so much for your insights. I have Dublin Marathon coming up in 3 weeks and I had my peak long run yesterday of 22 miles. I ran miles 10-20 at mp, with the average pace across those 10 miles being 6.47mpm and heart rate sitting between 153-157 bpm for all 10, which is comfortably within my Zone 3 HR. Overall, whilst it was certainly hard work I felt steady and in control throughout. All things considered, I'm fairly confident on paper I'm in sub-3 shape and possibly 2.55-2.57 on a good day with perfect conditions. I guess my question to you is, if presented with perfect conditions on the day is it best to shoot for around 2.57 and give myself a bit of a buffer if I need it come the last 3 miles or so, or would you play it safe and aim to pace even 6.50-52 splits the whole way? I know the last 5-10km are going to feel pretty painful no matter how it's paced, so I just want to give myself the best shot on the day. Any thoughts are appreciated & keep up the great work.

[@jimoconnor8597]

Really interesting! Love going through the data! Wonder what the temperature was and if there were any hills involved in any of those WOs? Definitely can jack with things as we have 88F temps with 66-70 dew points and rolling hills here. I use JD VDot predictor if I have run a recent race for marathon prediction. Strava/Garmin predicted 3:17-3:19 for my last one however JD Vdot predicted 3:09:09. I ran 3:08:22. Second marathon in a row that I had a 13.1 race 4 weeks prior to use and this predictor has been within 1 minute of my finish time X 2.

[@dazamad]

Loved the gameboy! This is vert informative and you clarify on a flat course marathon. Will have to wait some before taking up your program as I picked up a injury from baseball not running. Just my luck!

[@drwilloconnor]

That's always the way! Pokemon Gold too 😉

[@teamhassan9686]

Hey Dr Will, love your analysis 👍🏽 Very insightful and interesting. As a sub3 chaser, are there key workout sessions you would recommend?

[@hrdyplesoun]

Thanks for the video. Very helpful as usual:) The Prague marathon is just around the corner and I am gonna go for SUB3 .. according to the data I should be in sub3 shape but the question is how low I can go ... hopefully, they are not gonna leave me on the ground after 30kms if I overshot! :D

[@drwilloconnor]

It's always better to start slow to have something in the tank at the end. You'll easily gain 30 - 60sec in the last 5km if you've got good legs and the motivation to pass those blowing in front of you. It's hard to be the guy blowing!

[@infinitegaming1015]

I ran a half at 1:19:30 at 294 watts. Is sub 2:40 something I should shoot for?

[@trinichinee6426]

Love the content mate ... Question I'm a 21 min 5k runner .. the other day I accidentally did my 400m repeats too quick which was about 3:20/km pace and I notice that my legs felt unstable on footstrike as I was running. Is there any exercise to fix this instability or will this go away as I get faster ?

[@drwilloconnor]

That's relatively fast. I'd say it's due to unfamiliarity at that pace. 10- 20-second hill sprints can help with that-high force production without the speed.

[@trinichinee6426]

@@drwilloconnor thanks for the help mate! 👊

[@baumhauspflege3466]

Great video as always! For me those heartrate numbers seem so low, I used tot think its possible to run a Marathon at around 85 of max heartrate (on average ofc). So when I did my Marathon Pace efforts I was happy to stay around 80% of max HR most of the times (which is well within Zone 4) especially if those came in a Longrun. Am I completey off with this?

[@dereknalley]

I was shocked too. 145 BPM at sub 3 marathon pace? Who is this absolute monster?

[@jimoconnor8597]

That's what years of aerobic base work gets you!

[@drwilloconnor]

It's realitive remember. His lactate threshold HR is 160 bpm.

[@drwilloconnor]

That's why I don't use HRmax for my calucations. I haven't seen it to be a reliable enough measure across runners for it to be broadly applicable.

[@cristian-adrianfrasineanu9855]

Does having a strong kick/struggling in the last Ks give you any data related to the athlete's muscle fiber make up? Can that dictate some way the training you prescribe?

[@drwilloconnor]

Not really. There are too many other variables that can contribute to those scenarios, such as pacing, heat, prep, and motivation.

[@freeflyesperance3392]

Do you and Dr Matt hate each other now? Where’s the performance advantage pod? Or your pod?

[@drwilloconnor]

Hey Mate, TIME! It's so hard to find time to get everything out these days.

[@freeflyesperance3392]

@@drwilloconnor fair enough man. Not enough hours in a day. Hope you’re both going well. Love the content. Any discounts coming up? With the usd so strong it’s getting expensive to buy all your stuff.

[@drwilloconnor]

I feel ya. All my software subs are in USD. Email me. I’ll sort you out.

[@freeflyesperance3392]

@@drwilloconnor thanks mate!

[@andrewstorm8240]

Does external temperature matter?

[@baumhauspflege3466]

yes it does matter: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8293098/

[@eric13hill]

Absolutely

[@drwilloconnor]

Yes, big time. That's why I've partnered with @corebodytemp8659 for 2024.

[@mtbphd]

STEEEEEEVE!!!

[@drwilloconnor]

Thanks, Mate.

[@ismailgrou1667]

Bro 4:12 pace for 2h:16min at average HR around 145 thats crazy he can run sub3h easy