How Investors Took Over the Market - Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Roundtable

It’s Toronto-Vancouver real estate roundtable time with Urmi, Steve and John!
After the egg hunts, we’re left in that weird grey area, both weather-wise and in our real estate markets - John and Steve take us through the latest stats and on the ground realities. Also: when will interest rates start to fall and how will this impact the market and investors? Plus, the Liberal federal government, in full election mode, are now throwing around out policy announcements every day - which ones, from reductions in non-permanent resident numbers to a new renter bill of rights will actually make a difference?
0:00 Introduction
1:02 Toronto Numbers
5:25 Vancouver Numbers
7:49 Interest Rates & Market Sentiment
13:59 The Main Type of Real Estate Investor
17:18 Investors Driving the Shortage of Homes For Sale
24:08 Our Falling Productivity
32:56 Cuts to Non-Permanent Residents
47:59 Renters Bill of Rights
51:40 Federal Housing Policies What To Expect
Contact Us
Follow Steve on X-Twitter @SteveSaretsky; Email at: [e-mail]
Follow John on X-Twitter @JohnPasalis; Email at: [e-mail]
Follow Urmi on X-Twitter @MoveSmartly; Email at: [e-mail]
About This Roundtable Series
Each month, Move Smartly.com editor, Urmi Desai, talks to John Pasalis, Housing Analyst, Broker and President of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, and Steve Saretsky, Housing Analyst and Realtor at the Oakwin Realty Group at Oakwin Realty in Vancouver about the latest data and on-the-ground insights in Canada's biggest residential RE markets. (Thanks to Jesse Bains, now at Linked In News, for kicking off this series at Yahoo Finance originally!)
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is co-hosted by Urmi Desai, Editor of Move Smartly, and John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on KZbin and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

[@tmb3224]

18:40 John is bang on about this being a big issue keeping inventory low. All my friends I’ve known over the past decade who moved up the property ladder decided to keep their original property and rent it out as an investment. I did the same, but later sold it after discovering the hassles of being a landlord!! No regrets! It was all based on the massive continued appreciation of the property. If prices stay flat for a couple years, I suspect many of these amateurs landlords will bail out and sell.

[@Casey-qm1nd]

That is a good point that John makes. Also the longer the rates stay higher for longer, the more the pool of potential buyers is getting exhausted. Jobs are now harder to get, wages stagnant, even if we bring in more people via immigration, it will still be hard to qualify for a mortgage if you don't have a job, plus these prices are still overinflated and there are only so many good jobs. The market will be saturated with amateur investors and speculators with no one to sell to. This will lead to competition for sellers as sales volumes will stall out. You say that if prices go flat then it will shake out the weak hands, well imagine the scenario if prices come down.

[@dutchgirl7603]

Your best episode yet. Keep up the great work!

[@geryfung]

This was a banger episode. The discussion was very lively!

[@ravi2108]

Probably the most underrated show

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

This is the best and most informed show you guys have ever had on realestate . People need to watch this to understand realestate and the issues. You guys are hitting all the points i have been mentioning to people and trying to explain. Buy land buy the cheapest house in the neighbourhood people buy buy buy buy.

[@ps3songs]

The complete and utter betrayal of the youth in our country.

[@SzymonStas]

Massive fiscal deficit spending to rob us of future prosperity. Decades of low interest rates to create asset bubbles and price us out of the housing market. Decades of wage stagnation. A lost generation, robbed by the boomers, over and over again. Every time there’s economic pain, they borrow money from our future and juice the markets so they don’t lose any money in an economic downturn. 2001, 2008, 2020. Quantitative easing was just robbery, designed to protect and enrich asset owners.

[@AlexSuperTramp-]

Great episode! Love how deep the guys went on the subjects. Really interesting market. Credit to Urmi again for running the show really well

[@saveourplanet4204]

EXCELLENT EPISODE!! FEDS should consult with you 3 about housing and stop wasting our tax dollars on useless renter pricing transparency!

[@MikesGoogleAcct]

Steve made a great point about house prices as an inflation hedge. Tehran, Iran housing market is an example, average monthly mortgage payments exceed average annual incomes. In northern Tehran, house prices are the equivalent of CAD$2300 PSF. On the other end, Buenos Aires home prices have not kept up with Argentinian inflation falling 20% in US$ terms in the last 3 years due to lack of credit to CAD$215 PSF.

[@rosegirl9874]

John was fiesty in this episode, and i liked it.

[@mediaburn2]

We are not a serious country anymore.

[@ilikeshroomgals]

Were more of an economic zone.

[@igors8858]

Great topics this week, wish the government wasn't constantly making news, but great points raised for all of them. Also, does anyone buy that these policies will do anything to help??

[@user-bh9ni7bv7k]

John is funny! I laughed when he said: I know what you bought 8 yrs ago! looool

[@Julie-rg3mb]

So many great points this episode. I’m sitting here nodding my head the entire time. « Don’t make owning an investment property a lottery ticket. » Bang on, John. To a certain extent, this would be fairly easy to implement. Disallowing the use of borrowed funds as a downpayment would be an excellent first step.

[@CalCalCal6996]

This is your best episode yet guys. Keep it up! People need to hear the unfortunate truth. Housing is a huge drag on the economy and will be for the next 30 years.

[@Doug-tc2px]

Part of me does wonder if home prices are really out of whack, my parents bought there first home in 1964 for $32K, in 93 I bought my first home for $245K, today my son would pay $1.2m for a first home. I paid 665.62% more than my parents did for my first home. My son will pay 389.79% more then me for a home that is better built than mine or my parents. We could argue my parent parents went through a high inflation period while I did not, this would account for the difference in percentage gains and as we have entered another period of inflation homes will become more expensive over the coming decade. We are currently in a economic period know as the Cantillon effect - "Nearly 300 years ago, Irish economist and financier Richard Cantillon explained how excessive money printing causes inflation and a divergence between the “haves and have-nots.”

[@paulinebowen5170]

Awesome discussion!!

[@surjs3599]

Very informative show, 🎉

[@DuongMinh-gj7tm]

I liked that in this episode John calls out the nonsensical portions of the 'Renter Bill of Rights' directly. How un-Canadian of you John ;-)

[@Julie-rg3mb]

It’s an absolutely terrible idea. I wish they would have brought up the credit bureau issue. I know that they’ve spoken about it on other platforms, but it’s important for people to understand what a disaster this could be for renters.

[@Inquisitive9]

47:30 The US has a lot of mobility. So many people move from one state to another. There are not many good options to move in Canada.

[@huskavarnaband]

Move out of Canada is better

[@Inquisitive9]

​@huskavarnaband it's still better than 100s of countries.

[@marcoalbanese8221]

Great show guys!! So much to unpack both for and against. On the topics I'm against, the discussion on how our dollar is useless and that gold and crypto are better stores of wealth. Sorry, I call BS all day on that. I agree our government is destroying entrepreneurial spirit. I've been there and couldn't go back. But not over leveraging on my real estate has worked well for me and for most multiple property owners. But gold being real money? Until I get paid in gold, it's just another commodity. On crypto, until all financial institutions take away the greenback, I'll hold my properties. The dollar is shit for so many reasons but let's please remember that CEO's horde and earn hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of multiples more than their employees - who are then forced to rely on credit to live and enjoy life. Entertian me, what would a Lamborghini cost if the dollar wasn't useless? Purchasing power is just fine for the wealthy - 'cause they have it all. I think we need a lot of changes - especially our Federal government - but we also need a lesser gap between the have everything and those just trying to make it however way they can - including investing in rental properties. Have a great weekend! Loved this episode!!

[@robertwaldner3470]

Educate yourself about gold before you spout off on something you don't know about . Gold is the only real money.

[@janiceho6034]

Check in CMHC recent report to Vancouver which is stop the drop price and will reverse from now on the price and up till highest price is 2026.

[@Llilllneek]

Federal government should no longer allow these so called investors to claim/ write off interest paid on investment/ rental properties as an expense. Also they should start taxing any income from these investment properties Other than rental income from principal residence at a higher tax bracket-50% or more tax rate. Problem is that there are way too many incentives to own rental properties in Canada and hence the greed of owning multiple properties. 1:04:50

[@GreenBeanGreenBean]

95% of housing was built with private money, new housing starts is already down 50% heading to 0 quickly.....what you propose would plunge it into negative rates of building....nobody would build anything... ever.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

Finnaly some one mentioned Leons Crazy tell me that does not tell you how crazy realestate is and only get worse Also i have been telling people homes are tax free Principle resident and capital gains gains on an investment property is tax alot less , and not to-say anything about the tax benifit right offs.

[@JohnLee-]

House problem started with low interests rate. higher rate will fix the issue.

[@anandKumar-di3rk]

No economy can continue to use real estate and immigration to drive ots gdp. This would be a disaster at one point of time.

[@ozama1]

no idea why repeating what everyone else is saying guys, just come out with NEW IDEAS ... and by the way I love the idea of reporting tenants to Equifax and transunion this help landlord instead of waiting for LTB :) so beat it! I will be happy waiting 12 months for tenants to be kick out my property via LTB ... BUTTTTTT instant happiness and gratification when im allow to post no payment in their credit history! OMG hope this comes through!

[@jpboulais4373]

How about no GST on new constructions?

[@rolandvencel4256]

Excellent Episode

[@Ivan_Ivanovich_Drago]

More on immigration. We killed the Federal investors and entrepreneur classes back in 2014. We currently don’t have any Federal entrepreneurial programs outside of the Start Up Visa, which has a lot of fraud and like many other streams, is seeing huge delays. We need more on the entrepreneurial side of immigration and less red tape (something the provincial immigration programs are overburdened with) on the whole. When it comes to regular immigrants, we must do a better job differentiating between those who could make an impact and those who will not be able to adopt and drive productivity.

[@ElohorB]

John got upset at the end here 😅 More nothing burgers for everyone !

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

A home is a commodity now. Thats renters society. Forever

[@mikethomas6715]

@10:46 If every seller is thinking that way then the market will eventually goes up because there will be less inventory than normal.

[@jamessilverton8640]

I believe home prices are bat sh*t crazy but so are groceries, cars, energy etc. So is it the prices? Or average wages?

[@richyrich3285]

Pricing houses in gold is not a weird way to measure the value of houses. It is a perfect way since gold is a proven store of value. John just doesn't understand money. That's quite apparent.

[@dirtyburger7528]

John Disalis is such a lib LOL. Good show gang

[@mr.d4295]

Sounds like some MASSIVE price declines are coming....

[@sarabxyz]

👌

[@firstlast4229]

41:00 "everyone today doesn't want sprawl". Some people want condos instead of sprawl, because they think condos are cheaper. They are wrong.

[@LeslieMiletich]

lol was steve said.....slow.

[@user-dy3hz9yf8h]

Guys: More information is always better than less right? It might help "overbidding" on rents. If I know that this rental was $2k 7 yrs ago, I might think $3.4k today is massive rip off. No harm no foul! If someone pays the LL what he wants ok! That is fine! "Sunshine is the best disinfectant"

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

Once they see the math it will not go through John is finnally mentioning like it is sprawl In the 70s. Cannot happen again now is density which takes much much longer.

[@user-kv4kp4co1r]

Steve is disheartened because housing has ceased to be an asset for speculation. My main gripe with him is his facade of empathy towards the buyers, as if he’s experiencing the same level of distress. However, his true intent surfaces when he subtly promotes fear of missing out (FOMO) and speculation. This can be characterized as a form of passive aggression.

[@equestrian71]

Will it kill Steve to be nice to Urmi? Like really... take a page out of John's book, Steve, don't be so grumpy.

[@tilleytristan]

soo much disdain and bias for national tenant bill of rights, I'll tell you how the feds do that: ALL provincially delegated jurisdiction comes from the feds! The Charter and Canadian Constitution are federally passed and enforced law that governs all lower levels of government. This isn't new, this isn't different. Can we have a nuanced discussion, and provide alternatives instead of just being Trudeau bad constantly?

[@abrahamalappat2603]

Never attribute to malice what you can attribute to stupidity. I think that the policy experts in the back are just dumb.

[@Carolinapetroska]

So in summary , the Canadian real estate market is dead...with no hope of resuscitating any time soon.

[@robertrankin7805]

Urmi needs to talk less. So biased, and such low information empty calories

[@john_pasalis]

I've noticed that there is a segment of our viewers, and they are all men, who think the woman should shut up and stay quiet. Anyone with half a brain who isn’t clouded by their sexist biases would see that Urmi makes a big contribution to our show. She brings up topics I hadn’t considered and asks great questions. And again, any critical viewer whose opinions are not clouded by their sexism would see that Steve and I are just as, if not more, biased than Urmi. Everyone’s views are biased. Finally, anyone who hides behind an anonymous user account and tells women to stay quiet, something they would likely never do publicly, is a complete idiot. Please stop watching - we want critical and considerate viewers, not assholes

[@MoveSmartly]

I've noticed that there is a segment of our viewers, and they are all men, who think the woman should shut up and stay quiet. Anyone with half a brain who isn’t clouded by their sexist biases, would see that Urmi makes a big contribution to our show. She brings up topics I hadn’t considered and asks great questions. And again, any critical viewer whose opinions are not clouded by their sexism would see that Steve and I are just as, if not more, biased than Urmi. Everyone’s views are biased. Please stop watching - we want critical and considerate viewers John Pasalis

[@dirtyburger7528]

Nah man what are you even saying LOL! She's got good insight and represents how many others think. Also she's nicer to look at than John and Steve lol.

[@MoveSmartly]

@@dirtyburger7528 Thanks for watching and the support! ~ Urmi

[@wilkyb8997]

​@@MoveSmartly I'm not defending the nastiness of Robert, but he didn't mention anything about gender or Urmi being a woman -- what he said isn't sexist

[@c00per69]

The US is in Fiscal Dominance until breakage so make your real estate decisions based on this fact.