How Iran’s Attack Benefits Israel | Robert Wright & Joshua Landis

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Күн бұрын

Subscribe to The Nonzero Newsletter at nonzero.substack.com
Exclusive Overtime discussion at: nonzero.substack.com/p/how-ir...
0:35 Why Iran’s attack on Israel was an “own goal”
5:12 Did Iran minimize casualties on purpose?
11:47 The rising odds of Israel attacking Iran directly
19:15 America’s contradictory relationship with Israel
25:19 How conflict with Iran helps Israel
33:47 What China wants in the Middle East
43:03 America’s destabilizing role in the region
56:52 Heading to Overtime
Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Joshua Landis (University of Oklahoma, SyriaComment.com). Recorded April 16, 2024.
Twitter: / nonzeropods

Пікірлер: 66

@KAZVorpal 2 ай бұрын

Nobody competent on the issue believes that Iran looked bad here. What they did was demonstrate their ability to overwhelm the iron dome, so that they're important missiles can get through. They made clear, before they even attacked, that they were intentionally keeping casualties in damaged low

@davidcameronharbord1054 2 ай бұрын

Exactly.

@KAZVorpal 2 ай бұрын

@@davidcameronharbord1054 Makes me question this channel's veracity.

@jeffhicks8428 2 ай бұрын

You mean in a real attack they wouldn't announce it days in advance and use delivery systems that take hours to arrive? Maybe they wouldn't use the most outdated weapons they have? Interesting.

@yrukind 2 ай бұрын

@@KAZVorpal Just Landis' veracity is in question. Not the first time for his intentional miscalculations of truth.

@KAZVorpal Ай бұрын

@@yrukind No, Wright not only doesn't challenge his lie, he appears to approve of it.

@musharrafdog 2 ай бұрын

The problem with realists is they don't understand that people do things for reasons beyond money and power...some people actually believe in ideas and ideology. They can't imagine that not everyone is as craven as they are. So their predictive capacity is always lacking.

@johnnywatkins 2 ай бұрын

Every ones predictions are lacking but you have a point

@wealthychef 2 ай бұрын

Thus making the not very realistic, right? People calling themselves "realists" are actually cynics and pessimists. Not the same thing.

@r_ds8057 Ай бұрын

Yes. Some are looking for red heifers to sacrifice.

@adamlee1821 Ай бұрын

Took Joshua Landis’ class at OU in 2013. Best professor I’ve ever had.

@crghyz 2 ай бұрын

This is puzzling. Although I gather this is not your intent, the story you tell makes Iran appear to be the more responsible player in the region. Yes, we and Israel are the most dominant militarily. But we, as you point out, are violating many of our own "norms" (sic). Israel escalated the situation by bombing the consulate. That was a clear violation of international law and was done to draw the US back to their side which, as you also point out, was accomplished. Seems to me you're painting a picture that leaves the US and Israel as the more objectionable, norms, rules, international law (choose your preferred term) violater. I suggest that is why the majority of the international community, especially the "global south", is turning against us. They've lost patience with our astounding hypocrisy.

@jeffhicks8428 2 ай бұрын

The idea that Israel is the most dominant militarily is a joke. Hezbollah alone could handle Israel. Anyone that knows anything knows this. The issue is the balance of destruction. Lebanon would be destroyed in the process, which no one other than Israel wants. Iran is much larger military power than Israel and a much larger country in general. All of their most sensitive sites can't even be touched without nukes. The US knows this very well and has developed numerous weapons systems through the years specifically for the challenge, including that "MOAB" Trump uses in Afghanistan and the entire class of LCS, littoral combat ships. I know this comment is useless but really, you should get out of your bubble of delusion and mythology. Israel's military power is entirely predicated on continued US backing. The US can't even stop the Houthis. Obviously Iran would be destroyed in a war with the US, but at what cost? There's a reason the US has not directly engaged with Iran militarily despite half a century of yapping. The issue they can actually hit back. And they didn't and don't need nukes to achieve strategic deterrence. If they wanted nukes they could have gotten them and a viable delivery over a decade ago.

@davidcameronharbord1054 2 ай бұрын

This could be a win-win if Israel is smart enough to take it. Iran has establised deterrence. Israel can claim (falsely) that it's missile defenses are second to none.

@jennysteves 2 ай бұрын

Wish now I had taken advantage of Bob’s most excellent paid subscriber deal. This one .. 👍🏼

@JBActors 2 ай бұрын

Military experts and retired CIA officers state exactly the opposite of this person’s views on nearly everything relevant he says. For example, Check Judging Freedom with Judge Andrew Napolitano. This guy basically has no idea what he’s talking about: from what I can tell…

@acomputer121 2 ай бұрын

"it shows that the future doesn't necessarily belong to China" This is incoherent, China isn't involved in this conflict at all. "This is a big failure for Iran" - "this was a performative action that wasn't intended to hurt" Both of those can't be true at the same time. Iran clearly could have maintained their attack and overwhelmed the defences, in fact a small number of their missiles did make it through, if anything showing a reasonably precise knowledge of the extent of Israel's defence capabilities. Yes, this ties the west more closely to Israel, but if you truly thought the west would break with them, Iran is here to remind everyone that the west does not respect international law, and will still turn a blind eye to explicit violations of international law by Israel.

@dalvinderbasi3495 2 ай бұрын

No it doesn't, reply to the title of your video. You need to check out Larry Johnson or Scott Ritter, you will be informed in-depth by them. If you really want a proper perspective of what is happening that you will not get from legacy media.

@butmunchass 2 ай бұрын

Scott Ritter is a child molester. (check his wiki entry regarding his criminal record)

@JBActors 2 ай бұрын

You are exactly right. This guy reminds me of Baghdad Bob: a bunch of uninformed nonsense.

@dalvinderbasi3495 2 ай бұрын

@@JBActors Exactly, it is total nonsense.

@richardcarpenter6389 2 ай бұрын

Thank you Robert Wright and Joshua Landis. A good conversation, and I learned a lot.

@davidchunkyonion 2 ай бұрын

I don't understand how one reaches the conclusion that Israel looks strong after repelling the Iranian counterattack. Iran did everything they could to minimize the damage, and Israel, the UK, and the US spent a fortune to shoot down these missiles.

@delayedpilot 2 ай бұрын

kzbin.info/www/bejne/naHOmHVpi9x8ecksi=HuYFgYvXTPMG70zK for the documentary mentioned at 52:14

@cosimocub 2 ай бұрын

always a pleasure to see Landis on Nonzero

@jesselitsinger9399 2 ай бұрын

thanks for this one Bob. been waiting for this, Landis is always great

@mgriff0309 2 ай бұрын

I really feel like I’m getting the closest actual state of play with Landis …Bob seemed a bit shocked, like it didn’t line with his priors.

@unfixablegop 2 ай бұрын

Preferring sanctions to a nuclear deal with Iran may have its own logic, but its not something that could be called legitimate.

@wanderlustig8037 2 ай бұрын

Iran are such nice guys…

@worththewatch1517 8 күн бұрын

Americans are such nice guys

@mgriff0309 2 ай бұрын

Bob seemed shocked throughout Landis’ truth bombing…I think it’s clear he swallowed a bit too much koolaide (still love Bob!)

@richardcarpenter6389 2 ай бұрын

Only Bob could say, but to me he looks like he's engrossed in tracking what Landis is saying, while trying to integrate, or differentiate, what Landis is saying with his ideals of non-Zero international relations, cognitive empathy etc. That's my take, and why yes... gotta love Bob.

@r_ds8057 Ай бұрын

True ..you gotta watch till the end. The last line ..where Bob says china may do a better job of handling the middle east than the US...we (US) have screwed up too much and the system is too captured to right itself.

@mgriff0309 Ай бұрын

@@richardcarpenter6389 Yessir! I also hold the idea that I’m wrong and Bob is right …Landis seems to offer a more dispassionate overview of the facts on the ground and I don’t think Bob does (it’s clear he’s passionate about people and peace).

@mgriff0309 Ай бұрын

@@r_ds8057 I certainly did! I guess we won’t know the answer until China’s ability to project power comes into play and the US steps back from the global stage (either by our own will or forced to…). The way China handles their own populace should be a clue …but we really don’t know how things would be with them in charge…

@karohe 2 ай бұрын

Imagine claiming to be an academic and not knowing the difference between international norms and law. This level of ignorance is almost amusing. Joshua please continue what you have been doing. Good job.

@yrukind 2 ай бұрын

Can't say I enjoyed this, however it is important to see how those that idolize the current war state of affairs thinks. The pro AIPAC strength over our government is treasonous. No leader of a foreign country should be allowed to address Congress. Any member who gave a standing ovation, accepts AIPAC funds or contributions, and approve weapons for a country that is committing genocide should be investigated, and forced to register as a foreign agent.

@Zidana123 2 ай бұрын

Barely 2 minutes in and already a terrible analysis from Landis that doesn't take into account any kind of game theory or what the parties involved actually want vs what they signal they want. 1:33 "Israel has been making a mistake in Gaza and turning international opinion against it." This was never a mistake on Israel's part because Israel's objective in Gaza wasn't to gain the favor of international opinion. In fact the international opinion is basically irrelevant to them. Their objective is to drive out what they view as vermin infesting the lands rightfully given to them by their god YHWH. In the same way as if your house were infested by rats, you're just going to remove the rats, and the opinion of your neighbor as to what you should do with the rats is irrelevant to what you do. 1:49 "Iran has managed to close ranks back between Biden and Netanyahu." The ranks between Biden and Netanyahu were never broken. For all his many protestations, Biden never took any action that went against what Netanyahu wanted to do, which shows that these were all false signals to begin with. 1:56 "In fact, Britain and France and most of the international community, the EU, has spoken out in favor of Israel and saying very emphatically, we stand with you against Iran, Iran is the enemy." the inclusion of the clause [and most of the international community] makes this a factually untrue statement, as the _actual_ bulk of the international community are India and China. Of these two, India is continuing to pursue its policy of careful neutrality, and China is solidly on Iran's side. But putting the factual untruth aside... When did Britain, France, and the EU ever not regard Iran as an enemy?

@FreddieGamingHD Ай бұрын

The problem is looking at Israel as if it’s a rational actor.

@Zidana123 Ай бұрын

@@FreddieGamingHD Aye. They are acting in accordance with a bunch of internal narratives :x

@bofbob1 Ай бұрын

Britain perhaps. But France doesn't particularly view Iran as an enemy. Not that they view them as close allies or anything, but they don't think of them in "axis of evil" terms like the US does. What was surprising here was not that they condemned Iran, but more how emphatic they were when doing so. A lot of European policies vis-a-vis Iran are dictated less by their own relationship with Iran and more by their desire to avoid US sanctions. So usually you'd get either silence or half-hearted condemnations from them, while simultaneously doing what they could to continue doing business with Iran. It wasn't obvious that they'd go out and try to make Iran the bogeyman here. A more general call to deescalate would've been more appropriate, and more in line with their own interests in the region.

@Houthiandtheblowfish 2 ай бұрын

netanyahoo stays longer the better to wait for trump

@DaDaDanceProject 2 ай бұрын

Very good analysis. I hope the world becomes a better place for everyone and that religion becomes less of a tool for bad actors. We need to share the world, and if we cannot agree, at least we should agree to disagree in a peaceful manner.

@MikeDrewYT 2 ай бұрын

Bob. It is not *nominally* a superpower and a client state. It is *nominally* a superpower and a smaller, but sovereign, ally. It’s only (maybe) a *de facto* superpower and client state - or a maybe even, that is just your interpretation of the relationship. It might have features of a superpower-client relationship, but then sometimes the nominal sovereignty asserts itself. After an event like October 7th it’s likely that the “client’s” freedom of action would swing toward “sovereign” decision making as much as almost any other period of the relationship. The Biden administration supports Israel unreservedly to do what it has to do after 10/7 not only for Israel’s security, but to preserve the Abraham transformation that the Biden administration wholeheartedly approves of. That’s the baseline reality of American Israel policy until the post-10/7 period is palpably over. Say it to yourself ten times so you definitely internalize it. That’s the current reality of U.S. Middle East policy. Biden might have preferred Bibi didn’t do the strike in Syria, but they weren’t going to say, “Don’t.” If Israel judged it in their interest, Biden was going to say “Okay.” And he did. Biden is wanting X, but not forbidding Bibi from doing Y. That is the state of relations.

@Hanginglimbs1 2 ай бұрын

you know bob doesnt read these comments, right?

@AgnieszkaNishka Ай бұрын

Some people are just born optimist and cheerleaders for the West, no matter the barbarity of their weapons, dishonesty, theft of states' assets etc. It will end sooner than we think

@wealthychef 2 ай бұрын

Israel would be stupid to escalate further. kzbin.info/www/bejne/rp_CeJ6NjNqKi8k Attacking the Iranian embassy was an act of war by Israel. Iran's counter-attack was justified and successful and viewed as restrained and impressive by most experts. Therefore to call this attack an Israeli victory seems upside down. Despite not injuring anyone, the Iranians demonstrated that the Iron Dome is easily defeated. Another thing they demonstrated is that they can damage and destroy any bases in the area, a warning to the US to stay out. Iran is very powerful, allied with Russia, and hates the US a lot. American might right now is not very strong because these neocons and neocolonialists are trying to fight wars all over the globe. We cannot do Ukraine and Israel at the same time...

@talhendel4693 2 ай бұрын

Landis has Trump-like gestures.

@DocDanTheGuitarMan Ай бұрын

Expert claims this was a technological success. I’d say Maybe. Remember when Russia was a bumbling backward army?

@goethean 2 ай бұрын

This is certainly a more robust analysis than Bob's typical BLOB BAD comments.

@yaserthe1 2 ай бұрын

U are making a category error. Landis was speaking from a realist perspective, and therefore not making a moral judgment. Bob on the other hand is making a moral judgment. Reading between the lines ,I suspect if you asked Landis to take off his cold academic realist hat off for a minute, and ask him to make a value judgment, he would agree with Bob that the Blob is in fact BAD. It's just that in this interview, he was not talking about morality, he was making a cold academic analysis .