How serious is the UK’s debt mess?

[@Nick-co8qm]

1.) Government prints money 2.) House prices and other assets inflate 3.) Regular people pay more for rent or mortgage 4.) Regular people have less money to buy anything else 5.) Results in flat / broken economy where all money is funneled into assets and ultimately the pockets of the rich

[@INLineCOMPUTERS1]

Great video! I believe the UK needs to lower its energy costs, this would directly reduce inflation. In turn, the Bank of England could lower interest rates, allowing growth across the economy. Energy costs are critical because they impact every aspect of business and money creation. Over the past 4-5 years, rising energy costs have been a significant driver of UK inflation, exacerbating economic challenges and then the bank of England has chosen to make things worse by increasing (and holding) interest rates. With these two things its basically holing the UK (UK PLC) prisoner to growth.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

10 year Guilts are going to spike above 6 percent

[@allykhan8594]

They delayed too many Grid infrastructure for bigger power generation.

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

​@@allykhan8594That makes no sense.

[@GM-mz1js]

lol - lower the energy cost? energy mafia won't let it happen!

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

@GM-mz1js we are going to see a natural resources problem In 2025 banks are insolvent no deals no loans and no deposits I'm waiting for the debt market meltdown on a global scale

[@charlesw852]

‘Rachel Reeves wanted to address longer term investment’?!?! 3:53 Where is the evidence for this statement, other than a couple of empty platitudes?

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

Who in the right mind would want to invest in Britain were the currency is backed by nothing other than the faith and credit of the central bank where just like Russia could be sanctioned Zimbabwe is another country that has sanctions on them I can't remember the country who asked for there gold bk from the bank of England and was told that they weren't going to get it bk because they are sanctioned

[@barrieroberts75]

​@DarrenSmith-tq2xz Venezuela 😮😮 we have stolen their gold and give pathetic reasons to why we refuse to return it, India have seen the light and repatriated a large amount a few months ago

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

@barrieroberts75 did you know that India is buying silver as part of there strategic reserves

[@Tom-wm6lp]

By increasing labour costs by taxing employment obviously. Oh and at 11:21 he contradicts himself admitting the above but brushing it off as a "bad decision" and that's when you turn off.

[@thomasrichards8594]

“We need to find markets where there aren’t tariffs so we can have frictionless trade” “So we should rejoin the European single market?” “No.” “But why?” “…” “Good chat bro.”

[@m0o0n0i0r]

The problem with QE is that eventually you have to QT therefore QE should never have been a policy.

[@glostergloster6945]

Why? Just never reverse it. The money is already out there anyway.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

No one was saying that in 2020 but now people are complaining about QE how many people know what QE is and that it's inflationary

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@@glostergloster6945 so why even have a bond market. Let the government borrow and spend. Why bother working we can all just live on benefits. What could possible go wrong.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@DarrenSmith-tq2xz no one was saying that in 2008. thats where the prooblem is. edit: well started

[@AlpalWB]

How does splitting the energy grid into regions helps reduce consumer costs. Energy prices for parts of the UK would spike further whilst other lower. It was also see manufacturing shifting from some areas to others devastating where they left. Ridiculous idea

[@randomzebra1233]

Finally someone acknowledges we are 30% worse off.

[@TommyThompson-f8q]

The British government has created 200 billion £ since Covid, why do hardly any economists (bankers) talk about the damage this has done to our economy??? And where is the money now ??

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

The money went to people who were stupid enough to listen to the bs from the media and government that's were it's gone and we are going to see 10 year guilt yeilds spike above 6 percent an auction is going to go no bid great for them 1st time buyers who will get properties at a discounted rate

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

That makes no sense.

[@TommyThompson-f8q]

@ Edited it, 200 billion created, how much did this cause inflation and where did the money end up

[@firmbutton6485]

Robert is squirming in his chair because he likes labour but can’t bring himself to admit they aren’t doing a good job.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

maybe he has a big mortgage on a 2 year fix

[@AnnetteCurtain-tc4mh]

Cut the size of government, the country can't support this behemoth bloated state forever.

[@allykhan8594]

Too many on welfare voted against that!

[@glostergloster6945]

@AnnetteCurtain-tc4mh Always easily said never easy to do. Mainly because those who are most likely to vote (old people) are reliant on state benefits

[@hosephanerothe1440]

Just cut welfare

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@@glostergloster6945 so we will eventually go cap in hand to the IMF and they will then insist.

[@glostergloster6945]

@m0o0n0i0r dont need the IMF, never have.

[@3d1e00]

Our financial system is a system grounded in confidence, actual or otherwise. No one is confident, actual or otherwise.

[@jussimatikainen4681]

Really good stuff. Thanks for all :)

[@m0o0n0i0r]

BOE should continue to sell otherwise whats the point of even having a bond market. Why dont we just monetise the UK debt like Zimbabwe did? again all silly policy. There is a reason why the BOE was given independance and further mandated under the 1998 Bank of England Act. This economist should go look at the 10 year gilt rates before 1998 and after. If the government keeps meddling you will just see higher gilt rates. How about the government attempt to run a budget surplus and we remove government central planning that only ever has exacerbated income inequaltiy. Having more inflation just hits the poor even more.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

You are going to see guilt yeilds on the 10 year go above 6 percent

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@DarrenSmith-tq2xz well I have fixed rate 10 year mortgage at 3.05 percent. So its not all bad. Ill earn more on my savings hopefully.

[@jeremyquantrill4137]

The important question of the day is what wine does Steph have in her integrated wine cooler? is it some Leroy, DRC and Lafite or is it wine from the local supermarket?...

[@royshaft]

Oh dear , i tried you guys out , but you only convinced me that obviously smart people can be as dumb as rocks if their politics taints their ideas .

[@Mallarkey]

Reeves' fiscal rules translated: "This, (and previous) government's spending policies are unsustainable but these rules show we are at least constraining ourselves somewhat. Please keep lending us money." Ditching her rule would send a signal that we're abandoning reason for madness.

[@Floweringlotus]

The U.K. government could play a blinder right now with deregulation

[@glostergloster6945]

@@Floweringlotus Like how?

[@leighgoodwin1726]

Surely the BoE won’t be able to cut UK Base Rates significantly unless and until the FED starts aggressively cutting US rates, otherwise GBP tanks and inflation rises

[@danielcs6489]

What’s the point of the rule if you intend to break it. Reduce government spending - socialism knows no bounds, look at the NHS

[@baronvontrap3325]

You are right on. Socialism does know no bounds in modern economies - don't forget the banking sector, PPE suppliers, all the assets that the wealthy bought with the furlough cash and QE funds that flowed into their accounts after 2008 and COVID. All of them scrounging off the taxpayer while claiming to be 'investors' and 'innovators' . They create nothing. They just accumulate assets and live of the rents. - parasites to the last. And now the govt is cosying up to Blackrock to lead 'investment'. How long until we see Macquarie back on the scene. After all they did such a good job with Thames Water didn't they.

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

They need investors to invest in the UK. I would campaign for the government to introduce tax incentives to encourage everyone to invest into the FTSE.

[@halfamo2422]

Distracted by RP staring at camera, looking remarkably like a furious bird of prey.

[@ras6783]

Lot of hope in this outlook ... no mention of stagflation which is a serious risk for the UK. Budge was inflationary and anti growth .... doesn't matter if rates are being pushed up by external forces ( the correlation between UST and Gilts is quite high ) our debt and therefore borrowing requirements are what they are ... what we are seeing is the UK being singled out despite it being a widespread phenomenon.

[@PassportGods]

8:03 10:07 16:17 19:45 Forward looking monetary policy.

[@davideyres955]

What I’ve not see anyone ask yet is if borrowing costs are going up where is that money going? Who is benefitting from that larger influx of money. I bet it’s not the poor.

[@williammcintyre-v6d]

Surprised no one is talking about the chancellor potentially stopping the 25% tax free lump sum from pensions. It was predicted before the last election, but never materialised. It could still happen. Though unpopular, by her skewed way of thinking it would not adversely affect ‘working people’ since 70% of those who benefit are in the top 20% of earners (according to the Institute for Financial Studies).

[@barrieroberts75]

Pathetic reasoning, I am 73 and paid into 3 pensions and am considering talking my 25% due to using my savings up, I was a working class all my life never management, a crazy comment

[@williammcintyre-v6d]

@ It’s a well reasoned comment in my opinion. Here’s why. Before the disastrous budget the rumour was that the 25% tax free lump sum would end. That law was not passed. We are now being told that an emergency budget may be required in March. I merely wonder, given the promises given about not raising taxes on ‘working people’, if the chancellor might revisit the lump sum situation. After all, to her warped way of thinking, raising employers’ NI didn’t amount to a tax on ‘working people’, even though the knock-on effect clearly damaged the interests of workers. Pensioners, like you (and me) are not ‘working people’ because by definition, though they are people, they are not working. Therefore RR could argue that they fall outside her definition and that by finding a new way to tax them she is not breaking her promise. Such a change would raise approx £6bn (again according to the IFS). I’m not suggesting it will happen, only that it could happen. When it was mooted before the budget, thousands of pensioners withdrew their lump sum for fear of it being taxed. If one were cynical then one might think a surprise tax grab would prevent early such withdrawals and recoup a sizeable sum for the perceived ‘black hole’ in UK finances and somewhat alleviate the need for cutting spending, which Labour governments abhor since they love to throw money at civil servants. Another stat for you. The government tax take p.a. is approx £2.6trillion which is roughly the same as the cost of civil servants’ pensions. Rather than hit private pensions, why does the government not ask why it is teachers and NHS workers etc. need employers’ (i.e. taxpayers’) pension contributions of well over 20%?

[@m0o0n0i0r]

To get economic growth up. Cut government spending by cutting the welfare and unneeded government departments. Raise interest rates to raise the pound so input costs such as energy prices come down. Constrain the government in terms of planning. it is funny productiviy has flatlined since 2008 with ZIRP and QE. Businesses dont invest in research and development and equipment to raise productivity if they are clobbered with increased costs because of a debased currency.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

You are completely spot on do you follow Greg manareno

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@DarrenSmith-tq2xz no Austrian Economics F A Hayek. Lived through the financial crises of 08. Lost my job and wondered why even though I thought I was doing well. Did the so called silly thing of renting a room in a shared house trying to save a deposit for a house.

[@royshaft]

@DarrenSmith-tq2xz Lion ?

[@m0o0n0i0r]

If anyone wants to look at data have a look at uk 10 year golt rates before 1998 and after. The Bank of England Act of 1998 came in to force. As the BOE was considered independant the markets we happy to lend to the UK gov. Generally I believe that the theory of Keynesian economics is that when the economy is good the government should run a budget surplus ready to spend when the economy is bad. Notice that the government had to do QE to bail out the banks in 2008. Hence why Economics is a soft science which exacerbates a sort of cult like behavour hence why we have had subsequent bad policies since then. You see the problem with QE is that you have to do QT or you monetise debt. based on this personally I took out a 10 year fix rate mortgage at 3.05 percent have cash savings precious metals stocks pension. Ill get hit on a few of my assets but I think it will balance out. we can all blame reeves budget but where were the treasury?

[@PMMagro]

I am not British or in Britain (Swedish in Sweden). From the outside it seems UK productivity is long term issue and whenever a general cirsis hits you are slower to adapt to it. Brexit was a homemade issue but most are interntaional and affects all western economies at the same time. Brexit will be ten (10) years before you have new plan/alternative path even. At best. Iceland can handle being outside the EU and still cooperate economically. The 2008 banking crisis hit Iceland a lot worse than the UK. She has handled 2008 probaly better than the UK despite that by now... English is now stronger than ever. Due to the debt/asset economy having good financial markets and acess is more important. India is the worlds largets nation by population, Pakistan the 5th, Bangladesh the 8th, Nigeria one of the most growing countries (by population). They speak English and have education systems etc similar to yours. When a Scandinavian visit the UK it is like timetravel seing buildings last renovated in the 1980s or 1990s. Get some post year 2000 windows, isolaltion and stuff in for Gods sake... Sure when you are heavy into debt you are always under pressure but come on. Italy has way higher debt, worse aging population etc and still a lot lower interest reates. You are paying premium rates and seen as extra risky all around. Sober up!

[@MrBubba59]

This is good but please try to condense it all more. 44 minutes is far too long and many points are put multiple times,

[@widebleek8138]

There’s a lot of editing on this show!

[@andymrkipling]

She changed the fiscal rules when she got in...

[@neilcook1652]

Nothing is so bad that Reeves can’t make it worse !

[@REX4340]

How do you speed up videos 😅

[@kennethvenezia4400]

If one needs to hear what is completely obvious, then watch this video, otherwise, save yourself 45 minutes

[@MyEconomics101]

Not balanced, when you haven an IEA-type shill, why not also have one from the other side of the argument?

[@Hemswell]

Peak Socialism.

[@Peepsuk1234]

2008 still screwing nearly 20 years later

[@bernardcollier1226]

Funny how no one mention this while the Tories increased debt by 250%.

[@vaughanlockett658]

Massive rate and energy reduction in the manufacturing sector. Tax relief on new start up or new investors . Focus industry in medical, medicine , Technology, Military. Ditch net zero windmills electric cars and solar don't work, shore up our boarders . Public spending slashed foreign aid slashed . Go nuclear investment and infrastructure a drive for cheap energy.

[@michaelseibold9977]

Beg for Ruan? Ask to join Belt and Road to finish HS2? Get Brexit done? Who knows? Ask Liz Truss!

[@simonwiltshire7089]

Reeves can’t even tell the truth on her CV.

[@alipazarcikli1380]

Pro is on the scene

[@macoooos9204]

If this guy really holds influence then the UK is doomed.

[@jezbear1972]

Liz Truss must be feeling so smug right now... she's been totally proved right!!! Gilts much higher than when she had her "crisis"

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

She was a symptom not the cause.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

the BOE recently released a report taking the blame over the so called Truss budget. Problem with media is that they never revist. Read the report its very telling.

[@Spartacusx-xh3tg]

There is a way..look at Argentina.

[@paldavi2876]

That's what you call speaking out if both sides of your mouth

[@glostergloster6945]

Lol, Gerard Lyons is the biggest crank of them all. He literally told us Brexit was great because it would wipe out all our manufacturing (and that was a good thing).

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

Wasn't it Minford who said that? Tbh, though, in a world with China not being in low and middle-end manufacturing is looking to be the best place. The Brexit thing is looking increasingly curious - exports to the EU have increasedi n real terms since Brexit and that should have been impossible. I don't think the single-market was quite the thing it was claimed to be.

[@JPTalksLive]

Inflation + Growth = Sustainable Debt Rate % e.g. 2.5%+1%=3.5% oops the rate is 4.8%....

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

Brexit is the Elephant

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

Except it really isn't. Few now talk about it whereas a couple of years ago it was common to try and shoehorn it into everything. All the forecasts have more or less fallen-flat so little wonder. Even the Guardian are now running pro-Brexit articles and when that happens you know it;s over.

[@Pointman607]

🙄

[@rebornsmith7542]

Brexit is the only thing that gets us sorted, if these spinless leeches exercised the options available.

[@jamesbarnes8016]

It would have been great if you had explored the potential for a US trade deal, rather than focusing on an EU obsession. This is more important

[@paulies5407]

Exactly. Why tie ourselves to a continent that's in terminal decline?

[@Milominderbender586]

@@paulies5407why tie yourself to a fickle protectionist nut. There is no security cosying up to MAGA.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

So as this video seems to allude with stimulating the economy. Today Jan 13 2025 you have seen the pound drop further against the USD surly then our esports will be cheaper therefore we should all rejoice. or perhaps your economic theory and your implementation of keynesian economics is just incorrect?

[@m0o0n0i0r]

so far GBP is down against USD EUR JPY CAD AUD NZD and CHF

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

We don't exsport anything other than financial services we don't make anything we need to have a strong currency to attract investment money always seeks yeild

[@m0o0n0i0r]

@DarrenSmith-tq2xz exactly. back in the day they debased the currency on the back of making our exports cheaper and having GDP growth. Its telling now that the currency is devaluing they are doing a 180.

[@andrewwing5086]

The answers are there, what the country needs to do to face globalisation. But the electorate punishes brave Government's when taxes rise, as seen in recent polls with Labour. so we have a cloak and dagger tax policy, fiscal drag, and other taxes not apparent until selling assets. And so we swing politically from left to right, right to left, Beleveing that governments have hard levers to power when in fact it's the treasury. With an impatient public, not politically engaged, and only months ago, a self-serving, donor persuaded, one of the largest being the big house builders in the country (land banking)Tory government. And so it go's on and all will be well when we have control of our borders Ha ! With all this. Being an economist and making sense of it all must be like juggling a bag of water. Is there light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train coming to hit us ? Start with the days of low taxation are over with ALL political parties.

[@ep1929]

Rachel from accounts will sort it out.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

she will soon be taking calls in complaints

[@jezbear1972]

get the money printer warmed up... here comes MASSIVE liquidity injections!!!!

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

Here comes hyperinflation Zimbabwe style

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

​@DarrenSmith-tq2xzYes, that's why they're not going to do that.

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

They're not going to do that, Mr Mugabe.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

and we will all use USD to trade with each other. If the govenrment stops us we might as well use mobile top up cards to trade with each other as they did in Zimbabwe.

[@widebleek8138]

Not once did they mention inequality! Unbelievable!🤦‍♀️

[@damianbutterworth2434]

Why get into debt in the first place? I`ve never understood it.

[@ChrisPatrick-q6k]

For investment, and some debt is good.

[@widebleek8138]

Since I have been watching this show never, never have you or Stephanie discussed about inequality. Why?

[@m0o0n0i0r]

inflation and currency devaluation, the policies they wan, hits the poor harder than anybody else. Thats why.

[@kieranmarsh363]

Economist are often wrong but still very useful for media fillers

[@antjackson4471]

Waiting for these two snobs to have a dig at Brexit. They still don’t get it.

[@timangus]

No, they DO get it, it's the people with the persistent denialism of Brexit's failure who don't get it, like this guy.

[@Milominderbender586]

You do know of course Lyon’s was a Brexiter, I can’t stand the idiot so I won’t be watching, but if he doesn’t mention Brexit it’s due to shame because he knows that Brexit is a major cause of the situation we are in, when a nation does something so fundamentally stupid as ruining their trading relationship with their major trading partner the population can only blame themselves and the idiots that got them there.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

@@timangus Can you explain the failure? GDP per capita has more or less tracked the large EU countries, UK exports to the EU have increased in real terms, and now both the OECD and IMF have the UK to grow faster than France or Germany next year. The LSE report from the other week more or less nailed the coffin shut in the 'disaster' narrative. There's a reason few are now talking about it.

[@russellsage8518]

The UK is a Fiat currency. The UK government can't go bankrupt. Government should simply stop borrowing and except the budget deficit. Its effectively meaningless if you follow MMT

[@michaellewis7758]

It can go bankrupt, as Weimar republic discovered. GBP isn’t global reserve currency. Try (again) to inflate debt away and there will be a gilts strike and no money to buy anything as the value of the money becomes worthless. So, yes, the UK can easily bankrupt itself.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

The UK is bancrupt debt to GDP 150 this can never be paid back

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

​@@michaellewis7758you are spot on we are already bancrupt debt to GDP 150 this can never be paid there going to allow everything to calaps and then there going to force everyone in to the tokenised slavery system is

[@Floweringlotus]

The debt interest is linked to the consumer price index inflation. So that plan would only work if you could print all the money without increasing inflation and dealing the currency devaluing massively, maybe you could time it right, especially if other currencies globally are collapsing first, but you’re going to loose a lot of credibility and very few institutions would lend to the government for years after.

[@Hemswell]

@russel... You must work for the civil service. God help us.

[@widebleek8138]

There’s an elephant in the room:INEQUALITY!

[@shazoids]

The debt was created by the Tories over 15 years not 6 months.

[@bexhill8777]

real unholy posh trash-talk

[@dominicestelley3169]

One way or another, this is all by design. Whether Reeves and Stammer are complicit or incompetent doesn't really matter in the final analysis.

[@m0o0n0i0r]

sure and you never get the best people in a nepotism. in order to be chancellor you have to be in the political party. So the question is, why didnt the trasury push back on the budget?

[@MrPeterr126]

Isn't it a conspiracy theorist ideal that most major countries are all in the same trouble with national debt, looks like it has been done by design. (WEF).

[@m0o0n0i0r]

most of these countries believe in keynesianism. however politicians only implemented half the theory to win votes as there was no holding back on spending when the economy was roaring why did they need to as Brown said no more boom and bust.

[@widebleek8138]

Why can’t the government increase taxes on the rich?

[@lucasedmund3600]

Because politicians will not tax themselves

[@johnkelly3772]

Because they already do

[@michaellewis7758]

They already have, hence flight from the UK. Ultimately increasing taxes results in less tax money collected. Basically at some point the government has to live within its means.

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

Because the Ritch have already left how about the government cut unfounded libities socal security pensions NHS military education we have 2 choices inflate or default every time governments choose to inflate the debt away get ready for a hyperinflationary depression this is going to be global

[@widebleek8138]

@@johnkelly3772 No they don’t!

[@petefraser3013]

Tax the rich

[@DarrenSmith-tq2xz]

We need to cut the size of government contract money supply and hike interest rates high enough to support a strong currency very simple to achieve over time

[@m0o0n0i0r]

they doing that its not working though.

[@jaisriram295]

Labour Schills

[@widebleek8138]

Since I have been watching this show never, never have you or Stephanie discussed about inequality. Why?