How The 2024 Election Will Rock Markets, According To Investor Up 100% In 1-Year | Citrini

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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:20 How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now
07:21 Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?
20:04 VanEck Ad
20:44 Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations
26:18 Fannie Mae and Glass Producers
28:34 Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks
29:48 Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners
33:41 Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump
37:07 Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)
40:13 China
46:32 Trump on Crypto
48:15 Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?
54:12 Tarriff Basket
56:05 Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)
58:31 Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company
01:01:40 The Hottest New Coding Language Is English
01:06:21 Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed
01:09:32 Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished
01:12:43 What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?
01:19:03 China's AI Stocks
01:34:54 Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now
01:37:18 Hedging Via The VIX
01:42:34 Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

[@BlockworksHQ]

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG

[@yodurk21]

Citrini truly has a rare gift. He can see things early and understand what the implications are. This is not easy and he makes it look so easy.

[@annunakian8054]

Not an expert but if AI can't even get McDonald's orders right after a 3 year trial...

[@mooshoomastakilla]

I don't always comment on youtube interviews, but when I do.... it's damn good. Good job gentleman

[@Shobiwan1]

Jack has become such a great interviewer!

[@matthewg5792]

Agreed, mania is the correct word.

[@bpb5541]

Mania is only a part of it. We have all the issues that caused the 3 largest crashes in history all at the same time right now. They are credit, mania, and deriviates (collateral). So you a 1/3 right. Take your estimation of how bad things could get and multiply that by at least 5.

[@davidanalyst671]

The USA presidential election used to be "who would you rather have a beer with" Today its "who are you voting against"

[@wasdwasdedsf]

cause how dare you vote for thebest presiden in modern history?

[@briankraemer8139]

Does this man ever reveal who he is? I'm noticing a trend that I hope doesn't become routine. Investors are creating fake names and avatars and sometimes even voices, but are still being given free air time. I think people should be responsible for what we say and not be anonymous.

[@user-dx4qs7uu8y]

he uses his real name when he's on Odd Lots

[@BatmanBoss]

Love this guy. Thanks Jack

[@AlexGudim20]

This guy is smart. Thanks Jack

[@ibladesi]

For the first time in 20yrs+, I'm actually looking forward to what Intel has to offer. The worm has turned many times before (speaking in context of AMD vs Intel). Great interview (not finished yet, but I am making a little bit of forward guidance here).

[@dsherb8129]

Brilliant as always Citrini. I am an avid follower. Such wise words. Absorbing it all J Farley, the baws of interviewers. Keep up the great work mate. LT follower.

[@techinform]

I know Citrini is lurking these so I just wanted to say hi bud. Subbed to your stack & love your research, keep it up!

[@choski76]

Thanks for this one. Guy is amazing

[@danielscott1409]

Fantastic interview, very interesting

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you

[@a.r.4416]

Impressively informative and interesting views.

[@dave8212]

Awesome! 👍🏻💛

[@BradMorgan247]

Thank you for lending us so much of your time and thoughts, I really enjoyed this. You mentioned exiting NVDA if the macro told you recession is coming. I would respectfully posit that NVDA has become the macro and it will be the determiner for the rest of the market. It goes up an entire Intel almost every day. When it goes the market goes.

[@davidhumphrey1558]

Really glad this podcast is acknowledging the relevance of Bitcoin and the developing role it plays in global markets. When I started following this channel I thought it would just be a trad fi, Tow the line kind of show. Understanding all aspects of global markets really helps to show what is relevant to each investor, No matter their location, Capital scale, Or position in global markets Great work!

[@user-jt5ov8ps3o]

Been a rough week for guests lol. This is a good one.

[@hristopelov]

i expect $INTC to be up atleast +5% on Thursday non the less

[@thomassieckmann8962]

How much of the increase of AI share price is coming from passive investing investing in capnweighted index funds ?

[@danielscott1409]

The bearish recession argument for AI is not that the earnings will go down but that inflation will come down making bonds more attractive. If you look at non tech low vol stocks like Walmart and Costco, they trading at near 50x earnings because people need a replacement for bonds with 6% deficits now the new normal. At least half of the tech rally is driven by that substitution in my opinion.

[@GreenisYellow]

Tesla and Bitcoin will be dominant in future

[@JohnAppleseed-cy1rd]

Tesla fans can suckkkmyyyyyyy

[@veitastic6866]

BYD disagrees

[@bpb5541]

TSLA is about to get crushed. My go long is anything under $65. BTC is going to go below 10k before it gets to a million. TSLA in 10 years will be trading at over $1000 a share if it can survive what come next. I am not sure it can. Their last earns were horrible and I do mean horrible. No they go down much father from here before they start the track back up. Trade price bro. TSLA chart look horrible. BTC looks to be topping right here. If you have a time horizon of 20 to 25 years.. then yes just buy buy buy but understand the probabilty of you have massive drawdowns is very high.

[@ntskl]

Jack keeps alternating between calling it "nuh-vidia" and ” en-vidia" as if he's not sure how to pronounce it

[@user-sk1nz6lb3f]

All the ppl who pronounce Nvidia wrong had to do was listen to the ceo pronounce it

[@bpb5541]

By my estimation the RUSSELL 2k is made up of over a thousand zombie companies. Do not be lured into buying small caps... due to rotation out of tech. That is not going to work well. The only thing that might do even half way well is going to be things like KO or staples that everyone buys no matter what. There is nothing good to buy right here right now... everything is way overvalued.

[@JorgeOrpinel]

Meh he was lucky to own Nvidia. Why isn't he 1000% up actually, if he always knew about the chips story? Just more false prophets/ lucky people giving random advice.

[@cyberft]

He isn’t up 1000% because he manages his risk like a professional. He was on the NVDA story early and was onto SMCI early as well.

[@imme8444]

@@cyberftthen it's luck. Riding the winners is what separates the best

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@cyberft " He isn’t up 1000% because he manages his risk like a professional." and by managing risks like professional you mean bet low on the ones youre most certain about, the ones most undervalued?

[@cyberft]

@@wasdwasdedsf no, he has clear rules on position sizing, diversification, and portfolio concentration. One of the biggest mistakes a speculator can make is to overestimate the certainty of an outcome. When trading Risk/reward is the more important variable and the one we have control over.

[@cyberft]

@@imme8444 so many people make money not riding winners. Doing so is a strategy, but there are many others, and you have a much smoother equity curve taking chips off the table systematically than you do with riding winners.

[@dewuroberts5314]

SCLX has a sciatica treatment in p3.

[@kevinwright7026]

Intel guh

[@DexterWatts-zm3jp]

I liked your video! Can you please suggest a good way of starting to invest in cryptocurrency. What do you think? Should we learn from successful traders and copy them rather than taking risks with our own money and getting too emotional?

[@DexterWatts-zm3jp]

Which signal do you guys trade

[@LoganBarnes-nq3ph]

Trading has been going well for me. Each day, I enjoy watching videos and reading appreciation posts of trades profit. It brings me joy to see others happy.

[@LoganBarnes-nq3ph]

The professional is Mrs. Audrey Arlo.

[@RonnieHolt-lq7co]

Wow, it feel so relaxing to see my broke talked about here, I thought I'm the only one that knows Ms Audrey Arlo,| guess her good works speaks for her now, she has build a good Legacy for herself

[@ChrisMatthew564]

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm from United States, she's a Licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United States.

[@jookyuh]

Tesla will certainly take a big part of the islands of "ecosystem" in the future, i.e. in the car (people do spend quite a bit of time commuting, both in terms of time and space) and Optimus (it will be the embodied agent that gets to interact with the users physically). Of course, this assumes that Tesla will be the one to dominate actually useful and fully functioning self-driving car and will be the one to mass produce relative affordable general purpose humanoid agent. Currently, there are no companies possessing much of the puzzle pieces necessary to actualize those visions. What Tesla is doing in the AI and robotics space is cutting edge by any standard with capability to manufacture them at scale.

[@GrantLeeEdwards]

Where is the evidence that TSLA is leading in humanoid robotics? Or that it’s anywhere near functionality (when not being externally supported)? Does anyone believe Musk isn’t lying through his teeth when he says he thinks Optimus will be available to end users next year? Or even 2026. He’s colossally full of shit, hence TSLA wouldn’t be trusted even if it could produce better than a mere novelty product.

[@bpb5541]

No one will be driving anywhere when they don't have jobs to go to. That is what I think folks are missing ... we are on the tail end of a contraction cycle. TSLA last earnings were horrible and the stock ripped higher for a week. That means there is still too much money and folks thought they were getting it at a discount. What they didnt' understand was that last earnings call was a harbinger to what is to come... which is declinging sales.. and when I mean declining... I mean the next earning call folks will see it dropped off a cliff. Drive by any car dealership... they are packed... they are not selling anything. This is going to get much worse before it gets better. No better we wait.

[@umoabasute9424]

#2024Elections: A reminder to all voters 🗳️ and especially independent voters of what’s at stake in this upcoming election The Future of America 🇺🇸 and Next Generation’s Future. A vote 🗳️ for @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe means WW3, Economic Hardship, Border Crisis escalating, Gaza crisis

[@jonusjonus9271]

Trump 2024

[@bpb5541]

If you care about money ... Trump is not your bubba. He is one of the main reasons we are fighting infaltion. May I remind you he was the one who shut down the economy and did the largest tax cuts in history. Both very infaltionary. He said he is going to do it again. What happened did IQs just drop sharply? Hope that helped you out, so at least when he does get back in you know what will happen... which will be hyperifnation or more specific stagflation. Biden is no gem but he sure is hell a lot better than Trump even if he is half brain dead.

[@TM-fr7gh]

I'm not a Tesla bull, but being bearish Tesla because of AI agents when millions of people spend hours every day in their cars is stupid.

[@bpb5541]

TSLA is in trouble. Folks just haven't figured it out yet but by next quarter they will.

[@TM-fr7gh]

@@bpb5541 it must be in trouble. Elon is funding non compliant media. Can't have that

[@yodurk21]

Tesla isn't the only game in town. Lots of automakers out there making better cars and putting ample innovation. Tesla just isn't that unique anymore and the stock remains very expensive, not to mention the baggage and risks lingering.

[@juicymelodic]

100% in a year you could easily make 400%? Not the best pitch.

[@danielscott1409]

Disagree on Tesla. Musk started open AI and elecric cars. Next will be self driving taxis, no doubt in my mind.

[@user-sk1nz6lb3f]

Musk did not start electric cars he didn’t even start Tesla but for whatever reason that’s always overlooked. Yes Tesla wont be where it’s at today without him but facts are facts he did not start Tesla.

[@fl0ridaman123]

buy bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀

[@goldflyknows]

You heard the guy talking about manias.....?

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@goldflyknows what about it

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@goldflyknows youre aware an asset with inferior characteristics, being debased at 2% per year, and in the relative near future is goignt o be suspect to enormous debasement through asteroid mining and mining on other planetary bodies... is 10x btc?

[@goldflyknows]

@@wasdwasdedsf are you talking about that six thousand year mania in gold? Asteroid mining? Lol, dude.......

[@Bingo-hs6rf]

Ugh , the reason somebody has all these baskets , so they can cherry pick winners and losers and tweet about them . Big Deal

[@cyberft]

No, it’s to diversify. The guy is doubling the S&P return over an 18month period. He’s legit.

[@imme8444]

@@cyberftits a bull market. Literally could've done the same throwing a dart at the tech giants

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@cyberft hwy would you diversify from the best value propositions and no the guy isnt definitely legit because of track record

[@cyberft]

@@wasdwasdedsf because you don’t know what they are. We are making bets on an uncertain future with incomplete information in this game. Risk management is how you win in this game or else you won’t survive.

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@cyberft "because you don’t know what they are." lol what "We are making bets on an uncertain future with incomplete information in this game." hence why you make heavier leanings on th eones you deem best...

[@mmm-cake]

Meh

[@matthewg5792]

Speak slower please and pronounce your words clearly.

[@chrislemieux2747]

hmmmm James 🤔